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U.S. Geological Survey 2024 Rocky Mountain Region Science Exchange—Showcasing cutting-edge science to adapt to extreme weather events and stakeholder needs

Introduction The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States are complex, interconnected systems that sustain a large variety of species, including tens of millions of humans. These regions face risks from drought, wildfires, invasive plant and animal species, and habitat reduction. Working with many stakeholders, scientists can help to characterize these risks by providing data and analytical tools to inform land and water resource management decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey 2024 Rocky Mountain Region (Region 7) Science Exchange Workshop, held in April 2024, focused on cutting-edge science techniques, evaluating complex interconnected risks, and coproducing science with science partners and stakeholders. These science topics and communication strategies can be used for developing data, interpretations, and decision support tools needed to provide science that resource managers and other stakeholders can use to better understand complex, dynamic natural systems and develop management strategies to plan for and adapt to risks that threaten human communities and natural ecosystems.

Fact Sheet↗

A proposed streamflow data program for Oklahoma

An evaluation of the streamflow data available in Oklahoma has been made to provide guidelines for planning future data-collection programs. The basic steps in the evaluation procedure were (1) definition of the long-terms goals of the streamflow-data program in quantitative form, (2) examination and analysis of streamflow data to determine which goals have been met, and (3) consideration of alternate programs and techniques to meet the remaining goals. The study defines the individual relation between certain statistical streamflow characteristics and selected basin parameters. This relation is a multiple regression equation that could be used on a statewide basis to compute a selected natural-flow characteristic at any site on a stream. The study shows that several streamflow characteristics can be estimated within an accuracy equivalent to 10 years of record by use of a regression related to at least three climatic or basin parameters for any basin of 50 square miles or more. The study indicates that significant changes in the scope and character of the data-collection program would enhance the possibility of attaining the remaining goals. A streamflow-data program based on the guidelines developed in this study is proposed for the future.

Open-File Report↗

eMODIS: A User-Friendly Data Source

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center is generating a suite of products called 'eMODIS' based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data acquired by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System (EOS). With a more frequent repeat cycle than Landsat and higher spatial resolutions than the Advanced Very High Resolution Spectroradiometer (AVHRR), MODIS is well suited for vegetation studies. For operational monitoring, however, the benefits of MODIS are counteracted by usability issues with the standard map projection, file format, composite interval, high-latitude 'bow-tie' effects, and production latency. eMODIS responds to a community-specific need for alternatively packaged MODIS data, addressing each of these factors for real-time monitoring and historical trend analysis. eMODIS processes calibrated radiance data (level-1B) acquired by the MODIS sensors on the EOS Terra and Aqua satellites by combining MODIS Land Science Collection 5 Atmospherically Corrected Surface Reflectance production code and USGS EROS MODIS Direct Broadcast System (DBS) software to create surface reflectance and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. eMODIS is produced over the continental United States and over Alaska extending into Canada to cover the Yukon River Basin. The 250-meter (m), 500-m, and 1,000-m products are delivered in Geostationary Earth Orbit Tagged Image File Format (Geo- TIFF) and composited in 7-day intervals. eMODIS composites are projected to non-Sinusoidal mapping grids that best suit the geography in their areas of application (see eMODIS Product Description below). For eMODIS products generated over the continental United States (eMODIS CONUS), the Terra (from 2000) and Aqua (from 2002) records are available and continue through present time. eMODIS CONUS also is generated in an expedited process that delivers a 7-day rolling composite, created daily with the most recent 7 days of acquisition, to users monitoring real-time vegetation conditions. eMODIS Alaska is not part of expedited processing, but does cover the Terra mission life (2000-present). A simple file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site currently is enabled on the Internet for direct download of eMODIS products (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS), with plans to expand into an interactive portal environment.

Open-File Report↗

Dynamics of the recovery of the western Lake Erie walleye (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) stock

After its 1957 collapse under intensive fishing and environmental stresses, the walleye (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) stock of western Lake Erie remained low throughout the 1960s. A moratorium on both sport and commercial fishing, resulting from the 1970 discovery of mercury concentrations in walleye flesh, provided an opportunity for the development of an international interagency management plan. The quota management plan developed depended on sequential projection of the fishable stock on the basis of estimated annual recruitment and reports of total withdrawals from the stock. The fishery reopened gradually and quota management (including allocation among jurisdictions) was implemented in 1976. The stock, which had been gradually increasing as a result of relatively strong year-classes produced in 1970, 1972, and 1974, responded well to limited exploitation and produced a record year-class in 1977. Quotas were exceeded in 1978-80, but the stock continued to improve to the extent that the recommended rate of exploitation was increased in 1980 and again in 1981. As the population expanded, growth began to decline; the decline became apparent in young-of-the-year in the early 1970s and in older walleyes in the late 1970s. This trend toward progressively slower growth, which continued in the 1977 and subsequent year-classes, was accompanied by an increase in length at sexual maturity and a decrease in the percentage of female walleyes reaching sexual maturity at age III. As a net result of these changes, the proportion of mature females in the stock (an index of stock fecundity) decreased slightly during the interval 1975-84, while the estimated biomass of the standing stock rose from 9 000 to nearly 26 000 t. Both sport and commercial catches increased markedly after 1980 in Lake Erie's central basin.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

Methods for estimating flow-duration curve and low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations on small streams in Minnesota

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of low flows in streams, which are flows in a stream during prolonged dry weather, is fundamental for water-supply planning and design; waste-load allocation; reservoir storage design; and maintenance of water quality and quantity for irrigation, recreation, and wildlife conservation. This report presents the results of a statewide study for which regional regression equations were developed for estimating 13 flow-duration curve statistics and 10 low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged stream locations in Minnesota. The 13 flow-duration curve statistics estimated by regression equations include the 0.0001, 0.001, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999, and 0.9999 exceedance-probability quantiles. The low-flow frequency statistics include annual and seasonal (spring, summer, fall, winter) 7-day mean low flows, seasonal 30-day mean low flows, and summer 122-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years. Estimates of the 13 flow-duration curve statistics and the 10 low-flow frequency statistics are provided for 196 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamgages using streamflow data collected through September 30, 2012. The study area includes 196 streamgages located within Minnesota and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The study area was divided into five regions that were developed in a previous study using the concept of hydrologic landscape units. Geographic information system software was used to calculate 18 characteristics investigated as potential explanatory variables in regression analyses for each streamgage drainage basin. Trend analyses indicated statistically significant trends in summer 7-day low flows that were not related to precipitation patterns for 19 streamgages. For 16 of these streamgages, the streamflow record was subset using structural change analysis to identify the most recent period of record without a significant trend. The three remaining streamgages with significant trends were excluded from the final analysis because the effective period of record without a significant trend was less than 10 years. Because several streams in this study have zero flow as their minimum reported flow, weighted left-censored regression was used to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. A total of 115 regression equations were developed in this study to calculate flow-duration curve and low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations in the study area. In addition, data from 25 pairs of streamgages were used to develop drainage-area ratio equations that can be used to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations on streams that have a streamgage in another location. Streamflow statistics estimated using regional regression and drainage-area ratio equations were compared among regions. For regions A, D, and E, drainagearea ratio equations were more accurate than regional regression equations for flows, but regional regression equations were more accurate for high flows. For region F, regional regression equations were consistently more accurate than drainage-area ratio equations. For region BC, the pattern in accuracies of regional regression and drainage-area ratio equations between low flows and high flows was not consistent. Equations developed in this study apply only to stream locations where flows are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization. All equations presented in this study will be incorporated into StreamStats, a web-based geographic information system tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. StreamStats allows users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams through an interactive map.

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisco↗

Documentation of linear regression models for computing water-quality constituent concentrations using continuous real-time water-quality data for the North Fork Ninnescah River and Cheney Reservoir, Kansas, 2014–21

Cheney Reservoir, in south-central Kansas, was constructed to provide a reliable municipal water supply for the city of Wichita, Kansas, and to provide downstream flood control, wildlife habitat, and recreation. Cheney Reservoir will continue to be important for municipal water supply use as needs increase with ongoing population growth and urban development. Advanced notification of changing water-quality conditions near water-treatment facility intakes and in source waters allows water-treatment facilities and resource planning officials to proactively monitor changing conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Wichita, collected water-quality data at the North Fork Ninnescah River above Cheney Reservoir (USGS station 07144780) and Cheney Reservoir near Cheney, Kans. (USGS station 07144790), monitoring sites to update and develop regression models relating continuous water-quality constituents, streamflow, reservoir storage, and seasonal components to discretely sampled water-quality constituent concentrations of interest. Linear regression analysis was used to update and develop models for alkalinity, major ions, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), total and dissolved organic carbon, total suspended solids, suspended sediment, fecal indicator bacteria, and atrazine at the North Fork Ninnescah River site and total dissolved solids, major ions, hardness as calcium carbonate, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), chlorophyll a , and suspended sediment at the Cheney Reservoir site. New and updated models for both sites are applicable to the period of YSI EXO water-quality monitor and sensor deployment (November 14, 2015, through September 30, 2021, at the North Fork Ninnescah River site; October 1, 2014, through September 30, 2021, at the Cheney Reservoir site). Models and resulting water-quality information included in this report can be used in real time, potentially as guidance for water-treatment processes, and can be used to characterize changes in water-quality conditions over time in Cheney Reservoir and its contributing drainage basin provided that the deployed equipment, sensors, and location do not change.

Kansas↗

Spatially explicit modeling of annual and seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in Nevada and Northeastern California—An updated decision-support tool for management

Successful adaptive management hinges largely upon integrating new and improved sources of information as they become available. As a timely example of this tenet, we updated a management decision support tool that was previously developed for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter referred to as “sage-grouse”) populations in Nevada and California. Specifically, recently developed spatially explicit habitat maps derived from empirical data played a key role in the conservation of this species facing listing under the Endangered Species Act. This report provides an updated process for mapping relative habitat suitability and management categories for sage-grouse in Nevada and northeastern California (Coates and others, 2014, 2016). These updates include: (1) adding radio and GPS telemetry locations from sage-grouse monitored at multiple sites during 2014 to the original location dataset beginning in 1998; (2) integrating output from high resolution maps (1–2 m 2 ) of sagebrush and pinyon-juniper cover as covariates in resource selection models; (3) modifying the spatial extent of the analyses to match newly available vegetation layers; (4) explicit modeling of relative habitat suitability during three seasons (spring, summer, winter) that corresponded to critical life history periods for sage-grouse (breeding, brood-rearing, over-wintering); (5) accounting for differences in habitat availability between more mesic sagebrush steppe communities in the northern part of the study area and drier Great Basin sagebrush in more southerly regions by categorizing continuous region-wide surfaces of habitat suitability index (HSI) with independent locations falling within two hydrological zones; (6) integrating the three seasonal maps into a composite map of annual relative habitat suitability; (7) deriving updated land management categories based on previously determined cut-points for intersections of habitat suitability and an updated index of sage-grouse abundance and space-use (AUI); and (8) masking urban footprints and major roadways out of the final map products. Seasonal habitat maps were generated based on model-averaged resource selection functions (RSF) derived for 10 project areas (813 sage-grouse; 14,085 locations) during the spring season, 10 during the summer season (591 sage-grouse, 11,743 locations), and 7 during the winter season (288 sage-grouse, 4,862 locations). RSF surfaces were transformed to HSIs and averaged in a GIS framework for every pixel for each season. Validation analyses of categorized HSI surfaces using a suite of independent datasets resulted in an agreement of 93–97 percent for habitat versus non-habitat on an annual basis. Spring and summer maps validated similarly well at 94–97 percent, while winter maps validated slightly less accurately at 87–93 percent. We then provide an updated example of how space use models can be integrated with habitat models to help inform conservation planning. We used updated lek count data to calculate a composite abundance and space use index (AUI) that comprised the combination of probabilistic breeding density with a non-linear probability of occurrence relative to distance to nearest lek. The AUI was then classified into two categories of use (high and low-to-no) and intersected with the HSI categories to create potential management prioritization scenarios based on information about sage-grouse occupancy coupled with habitat suitability. Compared to Coates and others (2014, 2016), the amount of area classified as habitat across the region increased by 6.5 percent (approximately 1,700,000 acres). For management categories, core increased by 7.2 percent (approximately 865,000 acres), priority increased by 9.6 percent (approximately 855,000 acres), and general increased by 9.2 percent (approximately 768,000 acres), while non-habitat decreased (that is, classified non-habitat occurring outside of areas of concentrated use) by 11.9 percent (approximately 2,500,000 acres). Importantly, seasonal and annual maps represent habitat for all age and sex classes of sage-grouse (that is, sample sizes of marked grouse were insufficient to only construct models for reproductive females). This revised sage-grouse habitat mapping product helps improve adaptive application of conservation planning tools based on intersections of spatially explicit habitat suitability, abundance, and space use indices.

California, Nevada↗

Hydrologic analysis of the U.S. Bureau of Mines' underground oil-shale research-facility site, Piceance Creek Basin, Rio Blanco County, Colorado

The U.S. Bureau of Mines plans to develop an underground oil-shale research facility near the center of Piceance Creek basin in Colorado. The oil-shale zone, which is to be penetrated by a shaft, is overlain by 1,400 feet of sedimentary rocks, primarily sandstone and marlstone, consisting of two aquifers separated by a confining layer. Three test holes were drilled by the U.S. Bureau of Mines to obtain samples of the oil shale, and to test the hydraulic properties of the two aquifers. The data collected during construction of the test holes were used to update an existing ground-water-flow computer model. The model was used to estimate the maximum amount of water that would have to be pumped to dewater the shaft during its construction. It is estimated that it would be necessary to pump as much as 3,080 gallons per minute to keep the shaft dry. Disposal of waste water and rock are the principal hydrologic problems associated with constructing the shaft. (Woodard-

Colorado↗

Continuous Temperature and Water-Level Data Collected for a Heat Tracer Study on a Selected Reach of Tri-State Canal, Western Nebraska, 2007

The water supply in parts of the North Platte River Basin in the Nebraska Panhandle has been designated as fully appropriated or over appropriated by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources. Recent legislation (LB 962) requires the North Platte Natural Resources District and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources to develop an Integrated Management Plan to balance ground- and surface-water supply and demand within the North Platte Natural Resources District. For a ground-water-flow model to accurately simulate existing or future ground-water and surface-water conditions, accurate estimates of specific input variables such as streambed conductance or canal-seepage rates are required. As of 2008, the values input into ground-water models were estimated on the basis of interpreted lithology from test holes and geophysical surveys. Often, contrasts of several orders of magnitude exist for streambed conductance among the various sediment textures present locally, and thin, near-surface layers of fine sediment can clog the streambed, substantially reducing conductance. To accurately quantify the rates of leakage from irrigation canals and estimate ground-water recharge, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, collected continuous temperature and water-level data to use heat as a tracer for a selected reach of Tri-State Canal west of Scottsbluff, Nebraska. Continuous records of subsurface temperature, ground-water level, canal stage, and water temperature, and sediment core data are presented in this report. Subsurface temperature was monitored at four vertical sensor arrays of thermocouples installed at various depths beneath the canal bed from March through September 2007. Canal stage and water temperature were measured from June to September 2007. Ground-water level was recorded continuously in an observation well drilled near the subsurface temperature monitoring site. These data sets were collected for use as inputs for a computer model to estimate the vertical hydraulic conductivity. Before the initiation of flow, diurnal variations in subsurface temperature occurred because of daytime heating and nighttime cooling of bed sediment. Flow in Tri-State Canal was first detected on June 16 at the monitoring site as a disruption in the temperature signal in the shallowest thermocouple in all four vertical sensor arrays. This disruption in the temperature pattern occurred in deeper thermocouples at slightly later times during the rapid infiltration of canal water. The ground-water level began to rise approximately 23 hours after flow was first detected at the monitoring site. Canal stage rose for 7 days until the maximum flow capacity of the canal was approached on June 23, 2007. Measured water temperatures ranged from 18 to 25 degrees Celsius (C) while the canal was flowing near maximum capacity. Small diurnal variations of 1.0 to 1.5 degrees C in water temperature were recorded during this time. Measured ground-water levels rose constantly during the entire irrigation season until levels peaked on September 3, 2007, 3 days after diversions to Tri-State Canal ceased.

Data Series↗

U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census: Colorado River Basin Geographic Focus Area Study

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) concept of a national census (or accounting) of water resources has evolved over the last several decades as the Nation has experienced increasing concern over water availability for multiple competing uses. The implementation of a USGS National Water Census was described in the USGS 2007 science strategy document that identified the highest priority science topics for the decade 2007–17. In 2009, the SECURE Water Act (Public Law 111–11, subtitle F) authorized the USGS to create a Water Availability and Use Assess­ment Program for the Nation, and in 2012, the Department of the Interior WaterSMART initiative provided funding to begin implementation of the USGS National Water Census (NWC). Generally, the USGS NWC approaches water-availability assessment in terms of a “water budget.” The water-budget approach seeks to better quantify the inflows and outflows of water, as well as the change in storage volume, both nationally and at a regional scale and, by doing so, provides critical information to managers and stakeholders responsible for making water-availability decisions. The NWC has two primary components: Topical Studies and Geographic Focus Area Studies. Topical Studies do research on methods that can provide nationwide estimates of particular water-budget components at the subwatershed scale. Some examples of NWC Topical Studies include estimation of streamflow at ungaged locations; periodic quantification of evapotranspiration; and water use related to development of unconventional oil and gas. These efforts are planned to include additional topics in the future. Geographic Focus Area Studies (FASs) assess water availability and use within a defined geographic area, typically a surface-water drainage basin, to increase the understanding of factors affecting water availability in the region. In the FASs, local stakeholder input helps the USGS identify what components of the water budget are in most need of additional understanding or quantification. Focus Area Studies are planned as 3-year efforts and, typically, three FASs are ongoing in different parts of the country at any given time. The Colorado River Basin (CRB) and the Delaware and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basins were selected by the Department of the Interior for the first round of FASs because of the perceived water shortages in the basins and potential conflicts over water supply and allocations. After gathering input from numerous stakeholders in the CRB, the USGS determined that surface­-water resources in the basin were already being closely monitored and that the most important scientific contribution could be made by helping to improve estimates of four water­-budget components: evapotranspiration losses, snowpack hydrodynamics, water­-use information, and the relative importance of groundwater discharge in supporting streamflow across the basin. The purpose of this fact sheet is to provide a brief summary of the CRB FAS results as the study nears completion. Although some project results are still in the later stages of review and publication, this fact sheet provides an overall description of the work completed and cites the publications in which additional information can be found.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

Correlations of daily flows at streamgages in and near West Virginia, 1930-2011, and streamflow characteristics relevant to the use of index streamgages

Correlation of flows at pairs of streamgages were evaluated using a Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient to better identify gages that can be used as index gages to estimate daily flow at ungaged stream sites in West Virginia. Much of West Virginia (77 percent) is within areas where Spearman’s rho for daily streamflow between streamgages on unregulated streams (unregulated streamgages) is greater than 0.9; most withdrawals from ungaged streams for shale gas well hydraulic fracturing are being made in these areas. Most of West Virginia (>99 percent) is within zones where Spearman’s rho between streamgages on unregulated streams is greater than 0.85. Withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing are made from ungaged streams in areas where Spearman’s rho between streamgages on unregulated streams is less than 0.9, but because spatial correlation is partly a function of the density of the streamgaging network, adding or reactivating several streamgages would be likely to result in correlations of 0.90 or higher in these areas. Seasonal differences in the strength and spatial extent of correlations of daily streamflows are great. The strongest correlations among streamgages are for fall, followed by spring, then winter. One possible explanation for the weak correlations for summer may be that precipitation and runoff associated with convective storms affect one basin and miss nearby basins. A comparison of correlation patterns during previously identified climatic periods shows that the strongest correlations occurred during 1963–69, a period of drought, and the weakest during 1970–79, a wet period. The apparent effect of frequent rain during 1970–79 overshadowed streamgage-network density, which was at its historic maximum in West Virginia at that time, so that the extent of areas with high correlation to at least one streamgage was smaller during 1970–79 than during 1963–69. Correlations for 1992 to 2011 were slightly weaker than those for 1963 to 1969. The relation between correlation and distance between basin centroids was determined to be stronger for streamgage pairs in the Ohio River Basin than for pairs in the Atlantic Slope River Basins, which in turn was stronger than the relation between pairs of streamgages split between the two major basins. Quantile regression equations were developed for these three comparisons to estimate the Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient for streamgage pairs using distance between basin centroids as a predictor variable. The equations can be used for streamgage network planning. For the Ohio River Basin, the distance between basin centroids at which 50 percent of streamgage pairs would exceed a Spearman’s rho of 0.95 is 9 miles. The distance between basin centroids at which 50 percent of streamgage pairs would exceed a Spearman’s rho of 0.90 is 25 miles, and the distance at which 50 percent of streamgage pairs would exceed a Spearman’s rho of 0.85 is 48 miles. For the Atlantic Slope River Basins, the distance between basin centroids at which 50 percent of streamgage pairs would exceed a Spearman’s rho of 0.95 is 1 mile. The distance between basin centroids at which 50 percent of streamgage pairs would exceed a Spearman’s rho of 0.90 is 13 miles, and the distance at which 50 percent of streamgage pairs would exceed a Spearman’s rho of 0.85 is 41 miles. For pairs of streamgages split between the two major basins, the regression equation gives a value of 0.84 for the correlation coefficient at zero miles. On maps of correlations, the shape of strongly correlated areas for streamgages in the Ohio River Basin is generally round. In the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province, which generally coincides with the Atlantic Slope River Basins within the study area, areas strongly correlated with streamgages generally coincide with major valleys.

West Virginia↗

Mathematical model of the Tesuque aquifer system underlying Pojoaque River basin and vicinity, New Mexico

A three-dimensional digital model of ground-water flow was constructed to represent the dipping anisotropic beds of the Tesuque aquifer system underlying the Pojoaque River basin and vicinity, New Mexico. Simulations of steady-state conditions and historical ground-water withdrawals were consistent with observed data. The model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer system to an irrigation development plan in the Pojoaque River basin. Storage is the main source of water as 34.05 cubic feet per second (86 percent of the withdrawal rate) was simulated to be withdrawn from storage after 50 years of withdrawals for irrigation development; the maximum simulated water-level decline was 334 feet; and net simulated streamflow capture from the Rio Grande, Santa Cruz, Pojoaque, and Santa Fe Rivers was 5.63 cubic feet per second (14 percent of the withdrawal rate). The sensitivity of the model was tested by varying aquifer characteristics to the limits of the plausible range. Change in hydraulic head in Pojoaque River basin is most sensitive to hydraulic conductivity. In all simulations, after 50 years of withdrawals, the maximum simulated decline in hydraulic head ranged between 210 and 474 feet, storage in the aquifer system was the source of 80 to 90 percent of the water withdrawn from wells, and streamflow capture from the Rio Grande and its tributaries plus irrigation diversions from the tributaries of the Pojoaque River simulated a decrease in the flow of the Rio Grande of between 17.13 and 21.11 cubic feet per second.

New Mexico↗

Groundwater levels in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers of Douglas County, Colorado, 2011–19

Municipal and domestic water users in Douglas County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from the bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system as part of their water supply. The four principal Denver Basin bedrock aquifers are, from shallowest to deepest, the Dawson aquifer (divided administratively into “upper” and “lower” Dawson aquifers in Douglas County), the Denver aquifer, the Arapahoe aquifer, and the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. Increased groundwater pumping in response to rapid population growth and development has led to declining groundwater levels in Douglas County, where groundwater is a primary water source for densely populated and rural communities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rural Water Authority of Douglas County, began a study in 2011 to assess the groundwater resources of the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within the county. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2011–19) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations, reported above the land-surface datum, North American Vertical Datum of 1988, through time. During the study period, January 2011 through June 2019, discrete groundwater levels were routinely measured at 36 wells producing from Denver Basin bedrock aquifers within Douglas County. Of the 36 wells, 15 are instrumented with pressure transducers that record groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals, and these data were temporally aggregated into time-series records. During 2011, wells were added to the monitoring network in phases, so that the start dates of the well records are noncontemporaneous. To keep temporal analysis among wells consistent, the periods of record used in statistical analyses were from February 2012 through February 2019 for the discrete data and from January 2012 through June 2019 for the time-series data. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had some wells with rises in calculated groundwater-level elevations, but most wells showed declines on the basis of statistically significant trends and the relative differences in static groundwater-level elevations between the February 2012 and February 2019 measurements. Neither of the two wells in the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer showed significant trends in groundwater-level elevations, and these wells had few static discrete measurements, precluding a comparison between 2012 and 2019 static groundwater-level elevations. Of the 13 wells in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements, the records of 12 wells demonstrated negative trends during the study period. The upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, and Arapahoe aquifers had median significant trends of −0.23, −0.31, −0.92, and −2.26 feet per year, respectively. Although the Arapahoe aquifer had the greatest negative median trend, this median only represents one well with significant trends. Otherwise, the Denver aquifer had the next greatest negative trend, with a median trend of −0.92 foot per year. Significant trends in time-series groundwater-level elevations agreed with significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations; for all wells with statistically significant trends in discrete and in time-series groundwater-level elevation data, trend estimates from the two records were within 0.1 foot per year of each other. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers, created using discrete static groundwater levels measured in February 2019, show that groundwater flow direction for the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, and Denver aquifers is generally from south to north. Results of this study could guide future groundwater monitoring in the county and aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

Continuous hydrologic simulation of runoff for the Middle Fork and South Fork of the Beargrass Creek basin in Jefferson County, Kentucky

The Hydrological Simulation Pro-gram-FORTRAN (HSPF) was applied to an urban drainage basin in Jefferson County, Ky to integrate the large amounts of information being collected on water quantity and quality into an analytical framework that could be used as a management and planning tool. Hydrologic response units were developed using geographic data and a K-means analysis to characterize important hydrologic and physical factors in the basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN Expert System (HSPEXP) was used to calibrate the model parameters for the Middle Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for 3 years (June 1, 1991, to May 31, 1994) of 5-minute streamflow and precipitation time series, and 3 years of hourly pan-evaporation time series. The calibrated model parameters were applied to the South Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for confirmation. The model confirmation results indicated that the model simulated the system within acceptable tolerances. The coefficient of determination and coefficient of model-fit efficiency between simulated and observed daily flows were 0.91 and 0.82, respectively, for model calibration and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for model confirmation. The model is most sensitive to estimates of the area of effective impervious land in the basin; the spatial distribution of rain-fall; and the lower-zone evapotranspiration, lower-zone nominal storage, and infiltration-capacity parameters during recession and low-flow periods. The error contribution from these sources varies with season and antecedent conditions.

Kentucky↗

Tennessee StreamStats: A Web-Enabled Geographic Information System Application for Automating the Retrieval and Calculation of Streamflow Statistics

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow and other stream-related information needed to protect people and property from floods, to plan and manage water resources, and to protect water quality in the streams. Streamflow statistics provided by the USGS, such as the 100-year flood and the 7-day 10-year low flow, frequently are used by engineers, land managers, biologists, and many others to help guide decisions in their everyday work. In addition to streamflow statistics, resource managers often need to know the physical and climatic characteristics (basin characteristics) of the drainage basins for locations of interest to help them understand the mechanisms that control water availability and water quality at these locations. StreamStats is a Web-enabled geographic information system (GIS) application that makes it easy for users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for USGS data-collection stations and for ungaged sites of interest. If a user selects the location of a data-collection station, StreamStats will provide previously published information for the station from a database. If a user selects a location where no data are available (an ungaged site), StreamStats will run a GIS program to delineate a drainage basin boundary, measure basin characteristics, and estimate streamflow statistics based on USGS streamflow prediction methods. A user can download a GIS feature class of the drainage basin boundary with attributes including the measured basin characteristics and streamflow estimates.

Fact Sheet↗

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 8 (STAMVT01000008) on State Highway 100, crossing the North Branch of the Hoosic River, Stamford, Vermont

This report provides the results of a detailed Level II analysis of scour potential at structure STAMVT01000008 on Vermont Highway 100 crossing the North Branch of the Hoosic River, Stamford, Vermont (figures 1–8). A Level II study is a basic engineering analysis of the site, including a quantitative analysis of stream stability and scour (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993). Results of a Level I scour investigation also are included in Appendix E of this report. A Level I investigation provides a qualitative geomorphic characterization of the study site. Information on the bridge, gleaned from Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTAOT) files, was compiled prior to conducting Level I and Level II analyses and is found in Appendix D. The site is in the Green Mountain section of the New England physiographic province in southern Vermont. The 6.8-mi 2 drainage area is in a predominantly rural and forested basin. In the vicinity of the study site, the upstream right bank surface cover is short grass and the upstream left bank is a sand/gravel lot while the immediate banks are covered by shrubs and trees. Downstream of the bridge banks are forested. In the study area, the North Branch of the Hoosic River has an incised, sinuous channel with a slope of approximately 0.02 ft/ft, an average channel top width of 37 ft and an average bank height of 3 ft. The channel bed material is predominantly cobble with a median grain size (D 50 ) of 88.0 mm (0.289 ft). The geomorphic assessment at the time of the Level I and Level II site visit on August 1, 1996, indicated that the reach was laterally unstable. The Vermont Highway 100 crossing of the North Branch of the Hoosic River is a 39-ft-long, two-lane bridge consisting of one 37-foot steel-beam span (Vermont Agency of Transportation, written communication, November 1, 1995). The bridge is supported by vertical, concrete abutments. The channel is skewed approximately 20 degrees to the opening while the opening-skew-to-roadway is 15 degrees. A scour hole 2.5 ft deeper than the mean thalweg depth was observed along the upstream end of the right abutment during the Level I assessment. The only scour protection measure at the site was type-3 stone fill (less than 48 inches diameter) at the downstream ends of the left and right abutments extending downstream along the left bank for 13 feet and along the right bank for 16 feet. The plans show stone fill placed at the upstream ends of the abutments. The protection at the upstream end of the right abutment has failed due to stream migration towards the right bank. The protection at the upstream end of the left abutment was not detected due to the sand/gravel pile, for District 1 maintenance, migrating into the channel (Figure 3). Additional details describing conditions at the site are included in the Level II Summary and Appendices D and E. Scour depths and rock rip-rap sizes were computed using the general guidelines described in Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (Richardson and others, 1995). Total scour at a highway crossing is comprised of three components: 1) long-term streambed degradation; 2) contraction scour (due to accelerated flow caused by a reduction in flow area at a bridge) and; 3) local scour (caused by accelerated flow around piers and abutments). Total scour is the sum of the three components. Equations are available to compute depths for contraction and local scour and a summary of the results of these computations follows. Contraction scour for all modelled flows ranged from 0.6 to 3.0 ft. The worst-case contraction scour occurred at the 500-year discharge. Left abutment scour ranged from 14.4 to 17.8 ft. Right abutment scour ranged from 8.1 to 11.1 ft. The worst-case abutment scour occurred at the 500-year discharge. Additional information on scour depths and depths to armoring are included in the section titled “Scour Results”. Scoured-streambed elevations, based on the calculated scour depths, are presented in tables 1 and 2. A cross-section of the scour computed at the bridge is presented in figure 8. Scour depths were calculated assuming an infinite depth of erosive material and a homogeneous particle-size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Vermont↗

Estimating Water Storage Capacity of Existing and Potentially Restorable Wetland Depressions in a Subbasin of the Red River of the North

Executive Summary Concern over flooding along rivers in the Prairie Pothole Region has stimulated interest in developing spatially distributed hydrologic models to simulate the effects of wetland water storage on peak river flows. Such models require spatial data on the storage volume and interception area of existing and restorable wetlands in the watershed of interest. In most cases, information on these model inputs is lacking because resolution of existing topographic maps is inadequate to estimate volume and areas of existing and restorable wetlands. Consequently, most studies have relied on wetland area to volume or interception area relationships to estimate wetland basin storage characteristics by using available surface area data obtained as a product from remotely sensed data (e.g., National Wetlands Inventory). Though application of areal input data to estimate volume and interception areas is widely used, a drawback is that there is little information available to provide guidance regarding the application, limitations, and biases associated with such approaches. Another limitation of previous modeling efforts is that water stored by wetlands within a watershed is treated as a simple lump storage component that is filled prior to routing overflow to a pour point or gaging station. This approach does not account for dynamic wetland processes that influence water stored in prairie wetlands. Further, most models have not considered the influence of human-induced hydrologic changes, such as land use, that greatly influence quantity of surface water inputs and, ultimately, the rate that a wetland basin fills and spills. The goals of this study were to (1) develop and improve methodologies for estimating and spatially depicting wetland storage volumes and interceptions areas and (2) develop models and approaches for estimating/simulating the water storage capacity of potentially restorable and existing wetlands under various restoration, land use, and climatic scenarios. To address these goals, we developed models and approaches to spatially represent storage volumes and interception areas of existing and potentially restorable wetlands in the upper Mustinka subbasin within Grant County, Minn. We then developed and applied a model to simulate wetland water storage increases that would result from restoring 25 and 50 percent of the farmed and drained wetlands in the upper Mustinka subbasin. The model simulations were performed during the growing season (May-October) for relatively wet (1993; 0.79 m of precipitation) and dry (1987; 0.40 m of precipitation) years. Results from the simulations indicated that the 25 percent restoration scenario would increase water storage by 21-24 percent and that a 50 percent scenario would increase storage by 34-38 percent. Additionally, we estimated that wetlands in the subbasin have potential to store 11.57-20.98 percent of the total precipitation that fell over the entire subbasin area (52,758 ha). Our simulation results indicated that there is considerable potential to enhance water storage in the subbasin; however, evaluation and calibration of the model is necessary before simulation results can be applied to management and planning decisions. In this report we present guidance for the development and application of models (e.g., surface area-volume predictive models, hydrology simulation model) to simulate wetland water storage to provide a basis from which to understand and predict the effects of natural or human-induced hydrologic alterations. In developing these approaches, we tried to use simple and widely available input data to simulate wetland hydrology and predict wetland water storage for a specific precipitation event or a series of events. Further, the hydrology simulation model accounted for land use and soil type, which influence surface water inputs to wetlands. Although information presented in this report is specific to the Mustinka subbasin, the approaches

Open-File Report↗

Potential effects of energy development on environmental resources of the Williston Basin in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota—Species of conservation concern

The ecosystems of the Williston Basin provide direct and indirect benefits to society. These benefits include carbon sequestration, flood control, nutrient rich soils for agricultural productivity, and habitat for wildlife. This chapter’s main focus is on the effects of energy development on species that occupy the ecosystems in the Williston Basin. We compiled a list of documented species of conservation concern that are of most interest to Federal regulators and resource managers. Species of concern were either listed as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act or listed by States as species of concern in Natural Heritage Program checklists or State Wildlife Action Plans. All told, we determined that 357 species of concern likely occupy the Williston Basin. These species represented seven different taxonomic groups: plants (native and nonnative), terrestrial invertebrates, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, and fish and mussels. We reviewed the existing scientific information pertaining to potential effects of energy development on these taxonomic groups. Currently, little is known about the abundance and distribution of many of these species. But some information exists that may be useful in predicting the potential effects of energy development on certain taxonomic groups. Most of this information has been developed through scientific research focused on effects to mammal and bird populations. Effects to other taxonomic groups seems to be understudied. In general, it seems that disturbances and modifications associated with development have the potential to negatively affect a wide range of species; however, many studies produce uncertain results because they are not designed to compare populations before and after energy development takes place. Most of these studies also do not monitor resources over multiple years and thus cannot detect population trends. Likewise, there are few examples of landscape-scale assessments of the cumulative effects of energy development that could be used for species or habitat management purposes. We suggest that more research needs to be completed to measure potential effects to a broad range of species in multiple taxonomic groups. This may require also developing some understanding about the basic ecology of many of the species covered in this report. In concert with this more basic research, we also suggest that more comprehensive assessments of potential negative cumulative effects across the Williston Basin should be developed in an effort to guide more strategic management of biological resources.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗