SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Statistical Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Is “morphodynamic equilibrium” an oxymoron?

Morphodynamic equilibrium is a widely adopted yet elusive concept in the field of geomorphology of coasts, rivers and estuaries. Based on the Exner equation, an expression of mass conservation of sediment, we distinguish three types of equilibrium defined as static and dynamic, of which two different types exist. Other expressions such as statistical and quasi-equilibrium which do not strictly satisfy the Exner conditions are also acknowledged for their practical use. The choice of a temporal scale is imperative to analyse the type of equilibrium. We discuss the difference between morphodynamic equilibrium in the “real world” (nature) and the “virtual world” (model). Modelling studies rely on simplifications of the real world and lead to understanding of process interactions. A variety of factors affect the use of virtual-world predictions in the real world (e.g., variability in environmental drivers and variability in the setting) so that the concept of morphodynamic equilibrium should be mathematically unequivocal in the virtual world and interpreted over the appropriate spatial and temporal scale in the real world. We draw examples from estuarine settings which are subject to various governing factors which broadly include hydrodynamics, sedimentology and landscape setting. Following the traditional “tide-wave-river” ternary diagram, we summarize studies to date that explore the “virtual world”, discuss the type of equilibrium reached and how it relates to the real world.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2014

Great Lakes prey fish populations: a cross-basin overview of status and trends based on bottom trawl surveys, 1978-2013

The assessment of Great Lakes prey fish stocks have been conducted annually with bottom trawls since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. These stock assessments provide data on the status and trends of prey fish that are consumed by important commercial and recreational fishes. Although all these annual surveys are conducted using bottom trawls, they differ among the lakes in the proportion of the lake covered, seasonal timing, trawl gear used, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique, population indices were standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake for the following prey species: Cisco (Coregonus artedi), Bloater (C. hoyi), Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax), Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), and Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus). In this report, standardized indices are presented in graphical form along with synopses to provide a short, informal cross-basin summary of the status and trends of principal prey fishes. There was basin-wide agreement in the trends of age-1 and older biomass for all prey species, with the highest concordance occurring for coregonids and Rainbow Smelt, and weaker concordance for Alewife. For coregonids, the highest biomass occurred from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Rainbow Smelt biomass declined slowly and erratically during the last quarter century. Alewife biomass was generally higher from the early 1980s through 1990s across the Great Lakes, but since the early 1990s, trends have been divergent across the lakes, though there has been a downward trend in all lakes since 2005. Recently, Lake Huron has shown resurgence in biomass of Bloater, achieving 75% of its maximum record in 2012 due to recruitment of a succession of strong and moderate year classes that appeared in 2005-2011. Also, strong recruitment of the 2010 year class of Alewife has led to a sharp increase in biomass of Alewife in Lake Michigan. In general, trends in year-class strengths were less concordant across the basin and only coregonids showed statistical agreement across the upper Great Lakes. The appearance of strong and moderate year-classes of Bloater in Lake Huron in 2005- 2011 countered the trend of continuing weak year-classes of coregonids in Lakes Michigan and Superior. Not shown in our analysis is the appearance of the 2013 year-class of Bloater in Huron, the largest to date. There was no agreement in cross-basin trends in year-class strengths for Rainbow Smelt and Alewife, although there was agreement between pairs of lakes. Although there was statistical agreement in trends of age-0 and older Round Goby biomass among lakes where this species has successfully invaded (Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario), temporal patterns of biomass in each lake were different. Round Goby may be approaching equilibrium in Lake Erie, peaking in Lake Huron, and expanding in Lake Michigan. The trend in Lake Ontario remains unclear. Declining abundance in Lake Erie has corresponded with evidence that Round Goby have become increasingly incorporated into piscivore diets, e.g., Lake Trout, Walleye, Smallmouth Bass, Yellow Perch, and Burbot in Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Round Goby continue to be absent from spring bottom trawl assessments in Lake Superior, but their presence in the harbors and embayments of Duluth and Thunder Bay (U.S. Geological Survey and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, unpublished data), suggests that there is potential for future colonization.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2004

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii , already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss , is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2021

Assessing the impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells in the conterminous United States

This study assesses the potential impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells by using a previously developed statistical model that predicts the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations (>10 μg per liter) in water from domestic wells located in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The application of the model to simulate drought conditions used systematically reduced precipitation and recharge values. The drought conditions resulted in higher probabilities of elevated arsenic throughout most of the CONUS. While the increase in the probability of elevated arsenic was generally less than 10% at any one location, when considered over the entire CONUS, the increase has considerable public health implications. The population exposed to elevated arsenic from domestic wells was estimated to increase from approximately 2.7 million to 4.1 million people during drought. The model was also run using total annual precipitation and groundwater recharge values from the year 2012 when drought existed over a large extent of the CONUS. This simulation provided a method for comparing the duration of drought to changes in the predicted probability of high arsenic in domestic wells. These results suggest that the probability of exposure to arsenic concentrations greater than 10 μg per liter increases with increasing duration of drought. These findings indicate that drought has a potentially adverse impact on the arsenic hazard from domestic wells throughout the CONUS.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2022

HydroBench: Jupyter supported reproducible hydrological model benchmarking and diagnostic tool

Evaluating whether hydrological models are right for the right reasons demands reproducible model benchmarking and diagnostics that evaluate not just statistical predictive model performance but also internal processes. Such model benchmarking and diagnostic efforts will benefit from standardized methods and ready-to-use toolkits. Using the Jupyter platform, this work presents HydroBench, a model-agnostic benchmarking tool consisting of three sets of metrics: 1) common statistical predictive measures, 2) hydrological signature-based process metrics, including a new time-linked flow duration curve and 3) information-theoretic diagnostics that measure the flow of information among model variables. As a test case, HydroBench was applied to compare two model products (calibrated and uncalibrated) of the National Hydrologic Model - Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (NHM-PRMS) at the Cedar River watershed, WA, United States. Although the uncalibrated model has the highest predictive performance, particularly for high flows, the signature-based diagnostics showed that the model overestimates low flows and poorly represents the recession processes. Elucidating why low flows may have been overestimated, the information-theoretic diagnostics indicated a higher flow of information from precipitation to snowmelt to streamflow in the uncalibrated model compared to the calibrated model, where information flowed more directly from precipitation to streamflow. This test case demonstrated the capability of HydroBench in process diagnostics and model predictive and functional performance evaluations, along with their tradeoffs. Having such a model benchmarking tool not only provides modelers with a comprehensive model evaluation system but also provides an open-source tool that can further be developed by the hydrological community.

Frontiers in Earth Sciences↗

USGS2019

Differentiating anthropogenic and natural sources of uranium by geochemical fingerprinting of groundwater at the Homestake Uranium Mill, Milan, New Mexico, USA

A multiparameter geochemical-isotopic fingerprinting approach was used to differentiate natural and anthropogenic signatures of uranium contamination near the Homestake uranium mill site (Site), near Milan, New Mexico, USA. The Site consists of two tailings piles from milling operations and groundwater contamination from these tailings have been noted. The Site lies within the lower San Mateo Creek Basin with multiple regional sources of U contamination from mining and mill operations and is underlain by a heterogeneous alluvial aquifer, which is underlain by basement rock of the Chinle Group and the lowermost San Andres-Glorieta aquifer. To help decipher signatures, several statistical approaches were used including PCA, NMDS, and cluster analysis. Trilinear piper diagrams indicate two end member water types at the Site, sulfate-Na-K and sulfate-Ca. Natural alluvial aquifer groundwater in this area, relatively unaffected by mining or milling, appears to be more dominated by bicarbonate than sulfate and the deeper San Andres-Glorieta aquifer that has a mixture of sulfate and bicarbonate. Uranium concentrations from the Site fall into three broad categories, less than the drinking water standard of 30 µg/L (n=3), from 30 to 100 µg/L (n=9) and greater than 100 µg/L (n=8). Component loadings in a principal component analysis are highest for uranium isotopes, 228Ra, gross alpha-beta, molybdenum, chloride, uranium, and sodium, which affect the similarities or differences among wells sampled. Results suggest that several alluvial wells upgradient from the Site have anthropogenic fingerprints from regional sources related to upgradient mining. Wells with higher uranium concentrations have uranium activity ratios close to 1, which is indicative of mining or milling signatures. These same wells have elevated radon activities. This information can be used to inform Site managers on the source of water related to uranium at the Site and provide an approach for geochemical fingerprinting.

New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Understanding the relationship between stream metabolism and biological assemblages

Biological assemblages are commonly used for assessing stream health, but there is increased interest among the freshwater research community in incorporating measures of stream function, such as metabolism, to strengthen stream-health assessments. Presently, there is limited information about the relationships between stream metabolism and biological assemblages, along with the measurement period required to relate metabolism with stream biota. Our study assessed which environmental factors explained stream metabolism and to what degree stream metabolism and minimum dissolved oxygen (DOmin) were related to invertebrate and fish metrics in streams distributed across several regions of the United States. Furthermore, we evaluated the number of metabolism monitoring days required for maximizing the ability to detect relationships between stream metabolism and biological assemblage metrics. We sampled 17 sites distributed among reference, agricultural, and urban areas for stream metabolism, nutrients, habitat, and biological assemblages (invertebrates and fishes). Overall, sites were heterotrophic with gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) related primarily to days since last high flow, canopy cover, maximum water temperature, and total phosphorus. DOmin was related to days since last high flow, canopy cover, and maximum water temperature. We were unable to determine a clear statistical relationship between invertebrate metrics (invertebrate richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness; and scraper-taxa richness) and GPP, ER, or DOmin. In contrast, we found that 2 fish-assemblage metrics were associated with stream metabolism and DOmin. A fish multimetric index (FMMI) was negatively correlated with GPP ( r = −0.5, p = 0.048) and positively correlated with DOmin ( r = 0.47, p = 0.06). Percentage of omnivorous fish taxa was positively correlated with GPP ( r = 0.72, p = 0.001) and ER ( r = 0.55, p = 0.02) and negatively correlated with DOmin ( r = −0.67, p = 0.003). The lack of detected relationships for most of the biological-assemblage metrics with stream metabolism may be partially due to 1 or more factors, including high variability, low sample size, limited range in metabolism values, assemblage metrics used, and geographic distribution of sites. Comparing stream-metabolism measurement periods (in days) to biological-assemblage metrics indicated that optimum correlations occurred at 2 d for DOmin, 3 d for GPP, and 14 d for ER. Although our study found limited relationships of stream metabolism and DOmin with biological assemblages, future studies should consider a larger sample size (≥30), 14-d or longer metabolism measurement period, and assessment of other taxa-specific or assemblage metrics.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2016

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Washington↗

USGS2017

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Tennessee↗

USGS2020

Post-fire vegetation response in a repeatedly burned low-elevation sagebrush steppe protected area provides insights about resilience and invasion resistance

Sagebrush steppe ecosystems are threatened by human land-use legacies, biological invasions, and altered fire and climate dynamics. Steppe protected areas are therefore of heightened conservation importance but are few and vulnerable to the same impacts broadly affecting sagebrush steppe. To address this problem, sagebrush steppe conservation science is increasingly emphasizing a focus on resilience to fire and resistance to non-native annual grass invasion as a decision framework. It is well-established that the positive feedback loop between fire and annual grass invasion is the driving process of most contemporary steppe degradation. We use a newly developed ordinal zero-augmented beta regression model fit to large-sample vegetation monitoring data from John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, USA, spanning 7 years to evaluate fire responses of two native perennial foundation bunchgrasses and two non-native invasive annual grasses in a repeatedly burned, historically grazed, and inherently low-resilient protected area. We structured our model hierarchically to support inferences about variation among ecological site types and over time after also accounting for growing-season water deficit, fine-scale topographic variation, and burn severity. We use a state-and-transition conceptual diagram and abundances of plants listed in ecological site reference conditions to formalize our hypothesis of fire-accelerated transition to ecologically novel annual grassland. Notably, big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) and other woody species were entirely removed by fire. The two perennial grasses, bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ) and Thurber's needlegrass ( Achnatherum thurberianum ) exhibited fire resiliency, with no apparent trend after fire. The two annual grasses, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and medusahead ( Taeniatherum caput-medusae ), increased in response to burn severity, most notably medusahead. Surprisingly, we found no variation in grass cover among ecological sites, suggesting fire-driven homogenization as shrubs were removed and annual grasses became dominant. We found contrasting responses among all four grass species along gradients of topography and water deficit, informative to protected-area conservation strategies. The fine-grained influence of topography was particularly important to variation in cover among species and provides a foothold for conservation in low-resilient, aridic steppe. Broadly, our study demonstrates how to operationalize resilience and resistance concepts for protected areas by integrating empirical data with conceptual and statistical models.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

Vegetation community monitoring: Forest structure in Klamath Network parks

The Klamath Network, comprising six national park units in northern California and southern Oregon, initiated a vegetation monitoring protocol in 2011 to discern ecologically significant vegetation trends in these parks. The premise of the protocol is that multivariate analyses of species composition data is the most robust means for early detection of vegetation change over time. Here, we present these community metrics based on our sampling efforts from 2011 to 2019. Observations from the first sampling event (2011–2013) were used to establish baseline conditions for the vegetation communities. Observations from subsequent sampling in 2014–2019 were used to identify potential temporal variation in forest structure across habitat types and parks. Park landscapes were categorized into three strata: matrix (low- to mid-elevation upland habitats), riparian (within 10 m of a perennial stream), and high-elevation (above a predefined elevation, park-specific). At the onset of the network’s vegetation monitoring protocol, 241 permanent plots were established at random locations across the three strata. We present summary statistics from three repeated samplings (2011–2019) of each plot, describing variation in forest structure across broad habitat types and parks. Observable differences in forest structure aligned with expected productivity gradients across the parks. Measures of forest structure (vegetation cover, stem density, basal area, tree heights, height to live crown, shrub cover, and surface fuels) were generally higher in mesic sites, compared to sites located in more arid, continental climates. Differences across sampling frames also followed this general pattern of productivity. Matrix and riparian sampling frames had similar ranges of values in most cases, while high elevation sites had relatively lower stem density, basal area, shrub cover, fuels, and recruitment. Notably, we observed a relative lack of change in forest structure over time. This is not surprising given the relatively short (six-year) timespan of observations in each park. The fourth set of Klamath Network surveys (2021–2023) is likely to show substantial changes in vegetation cover and forest structure, particularly for parks that have recently experienced major fires. Continued long-term vegetation monitoring is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to a rapidly changing world. This report on vegetation composition is the second in a series; upcoming reports will analyze structure and function, aiming to detect spatiotemporal trends.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2012

Zinc isotope investigation of surface and pore waters in a mountain watershed impacted by acid rock drainage

The pollution of natural waters with metals derived from the oxidation of sulfide minerals like pyrite is a global environmental problem. However, the metal loading pathways and transport mechanisms associated with acid rock drainage reactions are often difficult to characterize using bulk chemical data alone. In this study, we evaluated the use of zinc (Zn) isotopes to complement traditional geochemical tools in the investigation of contaminated waters at the former Waldorf mining site in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, U.S.A. Geochemical signatures and statistical analysis helped in identifying two primary metal loading pathways at the Waldorf site. The first was characterized by a circumneutral pH, high alkalinity, and high Zn/Cd ratios. The second was characterized by acidic pHs and low Zn/Cd ratios. Zinc isotope signatures in surface water samples collected across the site were remarkably similar (the δ 66 Zn, relative to JMC 3-0749-L, for most samples ranged from 0.20 to 0.30‰ ± 0.09‰ 2σ). This probably suggests that the ultimate source of Zn is consistent across the Waldorf site, regardless of the metal loading pathway. The δ 66 Zn of pore water samples collected within a nearby metal-impacted wetland area, however, were more variable, ranging from 0.20 to 0.80‰ ± 0.09‰ 2σ. Here the Zn isotopes seemed to reflect differences in groundwater flow pathways. However, a host of secondary processes might also have impacted Zn isotopes, including adsorption of Zn onto soil components, complexation of Zn with dissolved organic matter, uptake of Zn into plants, and the precipitation of Zn during the formation of reduced sulfur species. Zinc isotope analysis proved useful in this study; however, the utility of this isotopic tool would improve considerably with the addition of a comprehensive experimental foundation for interpreting the complex isotopic relationships found in soil pore waters.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of statistical treatments of left-censored environmental data using coincident uncensored data sets. II. Group comparisons

The main classes of statistical treatments that have been used to determine if two groups of censored environmental data arise from the same distribution are substitution methods, maximum likelihood (MLE) techniques, and nonparametric methods. These treatments along with using all instrument-generated data (IN), even those less than the detection limit, were evaluated by examining 550 data sets in which the true values of the censored data were known, and therefore “true” probabilities could be calculated and used as a yardstick for comparison. It was found that technique “quality” was strongly dependent on the degree of censoring present in the groups. For low degrees of censoring (<25% in each group), the Generalized Wilcoxon (GW) technique and substitution of √2/2 times the detection limit gave overall the best results. For moderate degrees of censoring, MLE worked best, but only if the distribution could be estimated to be normal or log-normal prior to its application; otherwise, GW was a suitable alternative. For higher degrees of censoring (each group >40% censoring), no technique provided reliable estimates of the true probability. Group size did not appear to influence the quality of the result, and no technique appeared to become better or worse than other techniques relative to group size. Finally, IN appeared to do very well relative to the other techniques regardless of censoring or group size.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2005

Attitudinal survey component of the study Quantity, quality, and support for research in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service: An organizational assessment : Report of methods and frequencies

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is responsible for managing the Nation’s fish and wildlife resources so that these trust resources are preserved for the present and future use and enjoyment of the citizens of the United States. The FWS achieves this mission by managing many programs. These include the national system of refuges and fish hatcheries, Fish and Wildlife Management Assistance Offices, migratory birds program, law enforcement, and working with tribal, state, and other Federal agencies to ensure protection of threatened and endangered species. Another role of the FWS is consulting with tribal, state, and other Federal agencies and private sector interests on the best conservation management practices consistent with Federal law. Each of these activities requires a workforce that is recognized for its professionalism, dedication to public service, and command of expert knowledge. Recognition for expert knowledge in fish and wildlife conservation is demonstrated, in part, when FWS personnel direct, conduct, or report research that is well-designed to answer questions of importance for natural resource management. The data reported in this document are one part of a three-part study of the status of organizational support for research in FWS, which was commissioned by the Directorate of the FWS. Funding for this study was provided by the FWS, and the Science Support Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). In 1994, the biological research functions of the FWS were transferred to the National Biological Survey, and subsequently into the USGS. This transfer was principally accomplished by moving whole research units from one agency to another. The result was that some employees whose positions were involved with research were not transferred. In addition, some research, information, and management needs of the FWS have continued to be met by studies conducted within the FWS itself. Although the FWS relies on the USGS and others for most basic research investigations, the FWS also conducts its own studies to meet management needs. Because it is vital for FWS employees to be able to conduct such tactical and applied research tasks in a timely manner, the agency must promote the culture necessary to support and encourage these activities. Such research activities are spread widely across the various programs of the FWS, and there is presently no collective, formal, or systematic record of planned or existing research activities. In commissioning this organizational assessment research, the Directorate of the FWS recognized that it would be to the advantage of the agency to more fully understand its research capacity. To develop a clearer picture of the nature, extent, quality, and degree of administrative support available for conducting research within the FWS, investigations have been undertaken to: 1. identify positions in the FWS that may include, in whole or in part, a component of scientific research; 2. identify organizational units within the FWS that may conduct research as a significant portion of their mission; and 3. assess the attitudes of employees and managers about the obstacles and opportunities for scientific research existing within the FWS by using a scaled-response survey instrument. The findings presented in this report represent the basic results derived from the attitude assessment survey conducted in the last quarter of 2004. The findings set forth in this report are the frequency distributions for each question in the survey instrument for all respondents. The only statistics provided are descriptive in character - namely, means and associated standard deviations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type). Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km 2 ) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l − 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l − 1 year − 1 (1.6% year − 1 ). Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality. Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2025

Insights and strategic opportunities from the USGS 2024 Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Interagency Workshop

Introduction In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published Circular 1490 titled, “Integrated Science for the Study of Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in the Environment: A Strategic Science Vision for the U.S. Geological Survey” (Tokranov and others, 2021). Circular 1490 was created to be a resource for USGS scientists prioritizing and planning research related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and to be a guide for developing partnerships with other scientists, State and Federal agencies, and stakeholders engaged in PFAS research and management and mitigation of the environmental and human-health effects of PFAS. This USGS PFAS Strategic Science Vision document was intended to be the foundation for a “living strategic vision,” periodically providing updates on the state of USGS PFAS research, emerging PFAS data gaps and needs, and progress on interagency and stakeholder PFAS partnerships and priorities. To meet this objective, the USGS planned to host an Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop every 2–3 years. During September 10–12, 2024, the USGS hosted the first Interagency and Stakeholder PFAS Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The Workshop brought together experts from other Federal agencies (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Food and Drug Administration, Department of Defense [Air Force, Army]), State agencies (Washington Fish and Wildlife, Virginia Department of Transportation), and academia (Harvard University, University of Maryland) to address key challenges relating to the measurement and modeling of PFAS and the implications for environmental health. Participants engaged in in-depth discussions centered around six pivotal topics related to PFAS: (1) sampling protocols, methods and interpretation; (2) environmental sources, source apportionment, and occurrence; (3) environmental fate and transport; (4) human and wildlife exposure routes and risk; (5) bioconcentration, bioaccumulation, and biomagnification; and (6) ecotoxicology and effects. Each topic had three breakout sessions. A recurrent theme of workshop discussions was how data on a nationwide scale for PFAS occurrence in various environmental matrices, including air, water, food crops, biota, soil, and streambed sediment could help to advance scientific understanding. Participants noted significant geospatial data gaps, particularly in the midwestern and southern United States and the Pacific Northwest. PFAS data collection tends to be more robust along the eastern seaboard and in California. Participants stressed how enhancing the integration of large and small datasets across various agencies could help to support national scale understanding of PFAS. To address these gaps, attendees suggested leveraging datasets from Federal entities like the USGS and the U.S. Department of Defense, State agencies, and municipal utility services to develop predictive contaminant detection and transport models. Improved coordination between water quality programs and USGS research could help to facilitate access to valuable data, leading to comprehensive databases that inform PFAS point (wastewater treatment plants and landfills) and nonpoint (runoff from land, atmospheric deposition, food packaging) sources, environmental transport mechanisms, environmental detection and concentrations, potential exposure routes, and health effects on different biota, including humans. A specific request was made to develop a map demarking the depth of modern (1953 or later) groundwater, which is susceptible to surface-derived anthropogenic (that is, human-made) contamination, based on tritium-age dating. Emphasis was placed on incorporation of hydrology, groundwater flow paths, groundwater–surface water interactions, and landscape factors in predictive statistical models as a step to improve contaminant source identification and tracking. Molecular fingerprinting approaches garnered attention as techniques to link specific PFAS mixtures detected in a sample to environmental sources and levels in biota (Dávila-Santiago and others, 2022). Integrating data from abiotic (that is, water, soil, and air) and biotic (that is, living organisms) systems identified as a research opportunity. For example, understanding the composition of soils and sediments, which include a mixture of mineral, plant, and animal components, could advance understanding of exposure pathways. The discussions highlighted opportunities to explore and understand the potential redistribution and biotic exposures of PFAS from biosolid and wastewater treatment plant effluent land application practices, in addition to atmospheric releases and discharges from landfill and wastewater treatment plants. Participants identified research gaps surrounding how these sources may contribute to contamination and may affect surrounding ecosystems, including a better definition of anthropogenic background concentrations. Moving forward, the collection of co-occurrence data was noted as a means to improve understanding of complex mixtures and to leverage companion modeling efforts focused on areas with high and low contamination levels to identify areas of concern and unaffected resources. Participants emphasized how centralized USGS databases and the establishment of sample-metadata archives can help to ensure that samples are preserved and accessible for future research. In conclusion, the workshop participants identified opportunities to bridge data gaps and improve measurement techniques, modeling frameworks, databases, and communication, to enhance the understanding of PFAS and their effects on environmental and human health. Upon completion of the workshop, participants indicated an interest in developing strategic data collection, modeling, and analytical approaches to address these challenges.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Movement of synthetic organic compounds in the food web after the introduction of invasive quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) in Lake Mead, Nevada and Arizona, USA

Introductions of dreissenid mussels in North America have been a significant concern over the last few decades. This study assessed the distribution of synthetic organic compounds (SOCs) in the food web of Lake Mead, Nevada/Arizona, USA and how this distribution was influenced by the introduction of invasive quagga mussels. A clear spatial gradient of SOC concentrations in water was observed between lake basins downstream of populated areas and more rural areas. Within the food web, trophic magnification factors (TMF) indicated statistically significant biomagnification for nine, and biodilution for two, of 22 SOCs examined. The highest value recorded was for PCB 118 (TMF, 5.14), and biomagnification of methyl triclosan (TMF, 3.85) was also apparent. Biodilution was observed for Tonalide® (0.06) and Galaxolide® (0.38). Total SOC concentration in quagga mussels was higher than in three pelagic fishes. Also, 19 of 20 SOC examined in Largemouth Bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) had substantially lower concentrations in 2013, when quagga mussels had become well established, than in 2007/08, soon after quagga mussels were introduced. Estimates of SOC concentrations in the water column and quagga mussels suggest that a considerable portion (~10.5%) of the SOC mass in the lake has shifted from the pelagic to the benthic environments due to quagga mussel growth. These observations suggest that benthic species, such as the endangered Razorback Sucker, may be experiencing increased risk of SOC exposure. In addition, stable isotope analysis (carbon and nitrogen) indicated a decrease in the nutritional value of zooplankton to consumers (e.g., Razorback Sucker larvae) since quagga mussels became established. These changes could affect Razorback Sucker larval survival and recruitment. Results from this study strongly suggest that the introduction of quagga mussels has greatly altered the dynamics of SOCs and other processes in the food web of Lake Mead.

Arizona, Nevada↗