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USGS2026

Adaptation and response in drylands: A dryland research agenda and campaign strategy

Dryland ecosystems cover 41% of Earth's land surfaces, account for 44% of cultivated lands and 60% of food sources, and make large contributions to the global water and carbon cycles. However, these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented extremes including heatwaves, floods, and droughts as well as hotter temperatures and often declining water resource availability. These ecosystems are some of the most challenging to monitor given their high temporal variability with rapid response to their environment as well as vast spatial variability with intermixing of different plant species and life forms amongst bare soil coverage. The Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) campaign was selected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a scoping study to develop a research agenda for a dryland field campaign. Here, we detail our ARID science research agenda and implementation plan that were developed based on an extensive community engagement effort in over 160 events with over a thousand scientists, land managers, and Tribal communities between 2023 and 2024. The selected science themes cover drought and climate variability, ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity, carbon cycle interannual variability and trends, and social ecological systems (land management and adaptation). We then detail our remote sensing, modeling, and field-based strategies to capture high temporal and high spatial resolution processes. Finally, our implementation strategy is presented which includes focus area selections in a core intensive western U.S. domain and distributed international domains. This strategy includes our overarching guiding principles of using multi-temporal airborne acquisitions and super sites as well as enhancing land management in co-development with end-user partners. While originally developed for NASA, our ARID report creates a blueprint for any future dryland field campaign, at any scale, that can be implemented widely for foundational and applied science objectives.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2012

Flood pulsing in the Sudd wetland: analysis of seasonal variations in 2 inundation and evapotranspiration in Southern Sudan

Located on the Bahr el Jebel in South Sudan, the Sudd is one of the largest floodplain wetlands in the world. Seasonal inundation drives the hydrologic, geomorphological, and ecological processes, and the annual flood pulse is essential to the functioning of the Sudd. Despite the importance of the flood pulse, various hydrological interventions are planned upstream of the Sudd to increase economic benefits and food security. These will not be without consequences, in particular for wetlands where the biological productivity, biodiversity, and human livelihoods are dependent on the flood pulse and both the costs and benefits need to be carefully evaluated. Many African countries still lack regional baseline information on the temporal extent, distribution, and characteristics of wetlands, making it hard to assess the consequences of development interventions. Because of political instability in Sudan and the inaccessible nature of the Sudd, recent measurements of flooding and seasonal dynamics are inadequate. Analyses of multitemporal and multisensor remote sensing datasets are presented in this paper, in order to investigate and characterize flood pulsing within the Sudd wetland over a 12-month period. Wetland area has been mapped along with dominant components of open water and flooded vegetation at five time periods over a single year. The total area of flooding (both rain and river fed) over the 12 months was 41 334 km2, with 9176 km2 of this constituting the permanent wetland. Mean annual total evaporation is shown to be higher and with narrower distribution of values from areas of open water (1718 mm) than from flooded vegetation (1641 mm). Although the exact figures require validation against ground-based measurements, the results highlight the relative differences in inundation patterns and evaporation across the Sudd.

Earth Interactions↗

USGS2017

Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN)—A decade of serving hydrologic information to scientists and resource managers

Introduction The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) provides scientists and resource managers with regional maps of daily water levels and depths in the freshwater part of the Greater Everglades landscape. The EDEN domain includes all or parts of five Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Pennsuco Wetlands, and Everglades National Park. Daily water-level maps are interpolated from water-level data at monitoring gages, and depth is estimated by using a digital elevation model of the land surface. Online datasets provide time series of daily water levels at gages and rainfall and evapotranspiration data ( https://sofia.usgs.gov/eden/ ). These datasets are used by scientists and resource managers to guide large-scale field operations, describe hydrologic changes, and support biological and ecological assessments that measure ecosystem response to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. EDEN water-level data have been used in a variety of biological and ecological studies including (1) the health of American alligators as a function of water depth, (2) the variability of post-fire landscape dynamics in relation to water depth, (3) the habitat quality for wading birds with dynamic habitat selection, and (4) an evaluation of the habitat of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics and fluxes in Mississippi-Atchafalaya deltaic system impacted by an extreme flood event and hurricanes: A multi-satellite approach using Sentinel-2/3 and Landsat-8/9 data

Transport of riverine and wetland-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) spanning tidal wetlands, estuaries, and continental shelf waters functionally connects terrestrial and aquatic carbon reservoirs, yet the magnitude and ecological significance of this variable and its spatiotemporal linkage remains uncertain for coastal deltaic regions, such as Mississippi River Delta Plain, which includes Mississippi (MR) and Atchafalaya (AR) rivers and estuaries with vast expanses of wetlands and coastal forests. We examined DOC dynamics and fluxes in this large river-dominated wetland-estuarine system for the period between 2019 and 2021 that included an extreme river flood event in 2019, two major hurricanes (Barry in 2019 and Ida in 2021), and cold front passage using an improved adaptive quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA-AD) applied to multi-satellite sensors (Sentinel 3A/B OLCI, Landsat-8/OLI and Sentinel-2A/B MSI) with varying spectral and spatial (10/30/300 m) resolutions. The DOC estimates from multi-satellite sensors in combination with water fluxes were used to assess DOC fluxes from two large rivers (MR and AR) and small channels across the delta plain. Overall, this system delivered a total of 6.7 Tg C yr -1 (1 Tg = 10 12 g) into the estuarine zone and the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) during 2019. High DOC fluxes from the AR (1.3 Tg C yr -1 ) and MR (4.5 Tg C yr -1 ) were associated with the extreme flood event in 2019. Hurricanes that occurred in the study period also contributed to the wetland and estuarine DOC fluxes into continental shelf waters; for example, the passage of Hurricane Barry in July 2019, delivered over a 3-day period ~1.33 ×10 9 g DOC from Barataria Basin into the nGoM. Sentinel 2-MSI land and water classification revealed that Hurricane Ida eroded a total of 1.34×10 8 m 2 of marshes in middle Barataria Basin, converting those habitats into open water with 3.0 m inundation depth and high DOC concentrations (16.4 mg L -1 ), a potentially large DOC source to the coastal waters. Overall, storms and flood events are major sources of DOC flux that facilitate transport of upstream carbon as well as transformation of carbon in the wetlands, through the conversion of vegetated wetland to open water.

Louisiana↗

USGS2004

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km 2 . Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km 2 ) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS1988

Assessment of sampling stability in ecological applications of discriminant analysis

A simulation study was undertaken to assess the sampling stability of the variable loadings in linear discriminant function analysis. A factorial design was used for the factors of multivariate dimensionality, dispersion structure, configuration of group means, and sample size. A total of 32 400 discriminant analyses were conducted, based on data from simulated populations with appropriate underlying statistical distributions. Results from the simulations suggest that minimum sample sizes must exceed multivariate dimensionality by at least a factor of three to achieve reasonable levels of stability in discriminant function loadings. However, the requisite sample size would vary with respect to each of the design factors and, especially, with the overall amount of system variation. A review of 60 published studies and 142 individual analyses indicated that sample sizes in ecological studies often have met that requirement. However, individual group sample sizes frequently were very unequal, and checks of assumptions usually were not reported. We recommend that ecologists obtain group sample sizes that are at least three times as large as the number of variables measured.

Ecology↗

USGS2025

Habitat and predator influences on the spatial ecology of nine-banded armadillos

Mesopredator suppression has implications for community structure, biodiversity, and ecosystem function, but mesopredators with physical defenses may not avoid apex predators. We investigated nine-banded armadillos ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) in southwestern Oklahoma (USA) to evaluate if a species with physical defenses was influenced by a dominant predator, the coyote ( Canis latrans ). We sampled nine-banded armadillos and coyotes with motion-activated cameras. We used single-species and conditional two-species occupancy models to assess the influences of environmental factors and coyotes on nine-banded armadillo occurrence and site-use intensity (i.e., detection). We used camera-based detections to characterize the diel activity of each species and their overlap. Nine-banded armadillo occupancy was greater at sites closer to cover, with lower slopes, and further from water, whereas coyote space use was greater at higher elevations; both species were positively associated with recent burns. Nine-banded armadillo occurrence was not influenced by coyotes, but site-use intensity was suppressed by the presence of coyotes. Nine-banded armadillos (strictly nocturnal) and coyotes (predominantly nocturnal) had a high overlap in summer diel activity. Nine-banded armadillos are ecosystem engineers but are often considered a threat to species of concern and/or a nuisance. Thus, understanding the role of interspecific interactions on nine-banded armadillos has important implications for conservation and management.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2011

Networks - The assessment of marine reserve networks: Guidelines for ecological evaluation

As marine ecosystems are plagued by an ever-increasing suite of threats including climate change, pollution, habitat degradation, and fisheries impacts (Roessig et al ., 2004; Lotze et al ., 2006; Jackson, 2008), there are now no ocean areas that are exempt from anthropogenic impacts (Halpern et al ., 2008). In order to preserve marine biodiversity, ecosystem function, and the goods and services provided by resistant and/or resilient systems, marine reserves have been increasingly recommended as part of an ecosystem-based approach to management (Browman and Stergiou, 2004; Levin et al ., 2009). Marine reserves are defined as “areas of the ocean completely protected from all extractive and destructive activities” (Lubchenco et al ., 2003) and can be experimental controls for evaluating the impact of these activities on marine ecosystems. Growing scientific information has shown consistent increases in species density, biomass, size, and diversity in response to full protection inside reserves of varying sizes and ages located in diverse regions (Claudet et al ., 2008; Lester et al ., 2009; Molloy et al ., 2009). However, most of these data are from individual marine reserves and therefore have inherently limited transferability to networks of marine reserves, which when properly designed can outperform single marine reserves for a variety of ecological, economic, and social management goals (Roberts et al ., 2003; Almany et al ., 2009; Gaines et al ., 2010). The concept of marine reserve networks grew out of a desire to achieve both conservation and fishery management goals by minimizing the potential negative economic, social, and cultural impacts of a single large reserve while still producing similar or even greater ecological and economic returns (Murray et al ., 1999; Gaines et al ., 2010). In addition, reserves networks can provide insurance by protecting areas across a region and spreading the risk that these sites may be impacted by localized catastrophes such as hurricanes or oil spills (Allison et al ., 2003). The World Conservation Union's Marine Programme defines a network as “a collection of individual marine protected areas (MPAs) or reserves operating co-operatively and synergistically, at various spatial scales and with a range of protection levels that are designed to meet objectives that a single reserve cannot achieve” (IUCN–WCPA, 2008). However, general terms such as “co-operatively” and “synergistically” can have myriad meanings. Without a clear definition of a network, it becomes difficult to identify attainable management goals and design a process for evaluating whether the network achieves those goals. Besides, different management goals may in turn result in the need for different types of networks. The use of MPAs with varying protection levels together with no-take zones in multiple-zoning schemes adds another layer of complexity to network design and evaluation; however, partially protected areas are generally used to manage coastal uses and avoid conflicts (rather than for strict ecological purposes) and are therefore a function of the local social, economic, and cultural context. As we are here interested in the ecological effects of networks, for the purposes of this chapter, we focus on marine reserves because these areas are no-take and therefore offer greater ecological benefits than other types of MPAs that allow some forms of extraction (Lester and Halpern, 2008).

Book chapter↗

USGS2002

The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics

Optimal control theory is finding increased application in both theoretical and applied ecology, and it is a central element of adaptive resource management. One of the steps in an adaptive management process is to develop alternative models of system dynamics, models that are all reasonable in light of available data, but that differ substantially in their implications for optimal control of the resource. We explored how the form of the recruitment and survival functions in a general population model for ducks affected the patterns in the optimal harvest strategy, using a combination of analytical, numerical, and simulation techniques. We compared three relationships between recruitment and population density (linear, exponential, and hyperbolic) and three relationships between survival during the nonharvest season and population density (constant, logistic, and one related to the compensatory harvest mortality hypothesis). We found that the form of the component functions had a dramatic influence on the optimal harvest strategy and the ultimate equilibrium state of the system. For instance, while it is commonly assumed that a compensatory hypothesis leads to higher optimal harvest rates than an additive hypothesis, we found this to depend on the form of the recruitment function, in part because of differences in the optimal steady-state population density. This work has strong direct consequences for those developing alternative models to describe harvested systems, but it is relevant to a larger class of problems applying optimal control at the population level. Often, different functional forms will not be statistically distinguishable in the range of the data. Nevertheless, differences between the functions outside the range of the data can have an important impact on the optimal harvest strategy. Thus, development of alternative models by identifying a single functional form, then choosing different parameter combinations from extremes on the likelihood profile may end up producing alternatives that do not differ as importantly as if different functional forms had been used. We recommend that biological knowledge be used to bracket a range of possible functional forms, and robustness of conclusions be checked over this range.

Ecology↗

USGS2021

Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2021

Mangroves and people: Impacts and interactions

Mangroves have long been associated with human populations, as coastal communities rely on the various ecosystem services that mangroves provide. However, human degradation and destruction of mangrove forests is common, despite and because of our reliance on them as valuable ecosystems. Mangrove research and management must elucidate and reconcile these conflicts to maintain mangrove forests and the services that humans depend on. To better understand the complex dynamics, interactions and relationships that exist between mangroves and coastal communities, the 5th Mangrove Macrobenthos and Management (MMM5) conference was held in Singapore in July 2019, with the theme “ Mangroves and People: Impacts and Interactions”. This theme was chosen because Southeast Asia is the epicentre of ongoing mangrove loss, and a large number of coastal communities in the region rely on the ecosystem services that mangroves provide. The 32 papers published in this Special Issue represent the breadth of mangrove research presented at MMM5, including topics in faunal biology, ecosystem ecology, genetics, physical geography, biogeochemistry, remote sensing and the social sciences. The articles are characterized under the following topics: 1) mangrove ecosystem functioning; 2) range expansion of mangroves; 3) ecosystem services of mangroves; 4) anthropogenic and natural threats to mangroves; and 5) the management and social-ecology of mangroves. This Special Issue highlights the current state of the art of mangrove research and application, and describes a number of emerging new ideas and research opportunities that will continue to advance mangrove ecosystem science into the future.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2016

Montane Forests

This long-anticipated reference and sourcebook for California’s remarkable ecological abundance provides an integrated assessment of each major ecosystem type—its distribution, structure, function, and management. A comprehensive synthesis of our knowledge about this biologically diverse state, Ecosystems of California covers the state from oceans to mountaintops using multiple lenses: past and present, flora and fauna, aquatic and terrestrial, natural and managed. Each chapter evaluates natural processes for a specific ecosystem, describes drivers of change, and discusses how that ecosystem may be altered in the future. This book also explores the drivers of California’s ecological patterns and the history of the state’s various ecosystems, outlining how the challenges of climate change and invasive species and opportunities for regulation and stewardship could potentially affect the state’s ecosystems. The text explicitly incorporates both human impacts and conservation and restoration efforts and shows how ecosystems support human well-being. Edited by two esteemed ecosystem ecologists and with overviews by leading experts on each ecosystem, this definitive work will be indispensable for natural resource management and conservation professionals as well as for undergraduate or graduate students of California’s environment and curious naturalists.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Managed island ecosystems

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Conservation of temporary wetlands

Temporary wetlands are characterized by frequent drying resulting in a unique, highly specialized assemblage of often rare or specialized plant and animal species. They are found on all continents and in a variety of landscape settings. Although accurate estimates of the abundance of temporary wetlands are available in only a few countries, global estimations identify a decline in number and quality. The key environmental factors driving the structure of ecological communities in temporary wetlands are the duration, timing, frequency and predictability of the aquatic and dry phases, which varies greatly with region and hydrogeomorphic setting. Temporary wetlands have been historically neglected, but improved social awareness of the functions and values of, and increases in scientific interest, suggest that this is changing. They play an ecological role in both global cycles (i.e., CO 2 emissions) and biodiversity (in proportion to their size, they contribute disproportionately to regional and global biodiversity). Moreover, they provide valuable ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, nutrient flux to adjacent ecosystems, flood control, water filtration, and cultural services. Effective conservation of temporary wetlands requires addressing threats (i.e., inconsistent and inadequate regulatory protections; climate change; changes in land use) and management challenges (i.e., management at both local and landscape scales; incomplete understanding of the ecosystem services provided by them; the need to enhance inventories). The most suitable approaches for conserving temporary wetlands include (1) regulations or other forms of protection; (2) sustainable management; (3) restoration and creation; and (4) collaborative conservation.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON)

The General Lake Model (GLM) is a one-dimensional open-source code designed to simulate the hydrodynamics of lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands. GLM was developed to support the science needs of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), a network of researchers using sensors to understand lake functioning and address questions about how lakes around the world respond to climate and land use change. The scale and diversity of lake types, locations, and sizes, and the expanding observational datasets created the need for a robust community model of lake dynamics with sufficient flexibility to accommodate a range of scientific and management questions relevant to the GLEON community. This paper summarizes the scientific basis and numerical implementation of the model algorithms, including details of sub-models that simulate surface heat exchange and ice cover dynamics, vertical mixing, and inflow–outflow dynamics. We demonstrate the suitability of the model for different lake types that vary substantially in their morphology, hydrology, and climatic conditions. GLM supports a dynamic coupling with biogeochemical and ecological modelling libraries for integrated simulations of water quality and ecosystem health, and options for integration with other environmental models are outlined. Finally, we discuss utilities for the analysis of model outputs and uncertainty assessments, model operation within a distributed cloud-computing environment, and as a tool to support the learning of network participants.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2025

Achieving interpretable machine learning by functional decomposition of black-box models into explainable predictor effects

Machine learning (ML) models are often based on complex black-box architectures that are difficult to interpret. This interpretability problem can hinder the use of ML in fields like medicine, ecology, and insurance, and has boosted research in interpretable machine learning (IML). Here, we propose a novel approach for the functional decomposition of black-box predictions, which is a core concept of IML. This approach replaces the prediction function with a surrogate model consisting of simpler subfunctions, providing insights into the direction and strength of the main feature contributions and their interactions. Our method is based on a concept termed “stacked orthogonality”, which ensures that the main effects capture as much functional behavior as possible. To compute the subfunctions, we combine neural additive modeling with an efficient post-hoc orthogonalization procedure. Our method yielded plausible results in an analysis of stream biological condition in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (United States).

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2002

Land use change and effects on water quality and ecosystem health in the Lake Tahoe basin, Nevada and California: year-1 progress

As part of the requirements for the Geographic Research and Applications Prospectus grants, this Open-File Report is the second of two that resulted from the first year of the project. The first Open-File Report (OFR 01-418) introduced the project, reviewed the existing body of literature, and outlined the research approach. This document will present an update of the research approach and offer some preliminary results from multiple efforts, specifically, the production of historical digital orthophoto quadrangles, the development of the land use/land cover (LULC) classification system, the development of a temporal transportation layer, the classification of anthropogenic cover types from the IKONOS imagery, a preliminary evaluation of landscape ecology metrics (quantification of spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem structure and function with appropriate indices) and their utility in comparing two LULC systems, and a new initiative in community-based science and facilitation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Riverscape approaches in practice: Perspectives and applications

Landscape perspectives in riverine ecology have been undertaken increasingly in the last 30 years, leading aquatic ecologists to develop a diverse set of approaches for conceptualizing, mapping and understanding ‘riverscapes’. Spatiotemporally explicit perspectives of rivers and their biota nested within the socio-ecological landscape now provide guiding principles and approaches in inland fisheries and watershed management. During the last two decades, scientific literature on riverscapes has increased rapidly, indicating that the term and associated approaches are serving an important purpose in freshwater science and management. We trace the origins and theoretical foundations of riverscape perspectives and approaches and examine trends in the published literature to assess the state of the science and demonstrate how they are being applied to address recent challenges in the management of riverine ecosystems. We focus on approaches for studying and visualizing rivers and streams with remote sensing, modelling and sampling designs that enable pattern detection as seen from above (e.g. river channel, floodplain, and riparian areas) but also into the water itself (e.g. aquatic organisms and the aqueous environment). Key concepts from landscape ecology that are central to riverscape approaches are heterogeneity, scale (resolution, extent and scope) and connectivity (structural and functional), which underpin spatial and temporal aspects of study design, data collection and analysis. Mapping of physical and biological characteristics of rivers and floodplains with high-resolution, spatially intensive techniques improves understanding of the causes and ecological consequences of spatial patterns at multiple scales. This information is crucial for managing river ecosystems, especially for the successful implementation of conservation, restoration and monitoring programs. Recent advances in remote sensing, field-sampling approaches and geospatial technology are making it increasingly feasible to collect high-resolution data over larger scales in space and time. We highlight challenges and opportunities and discuss future avenues of research with emerging tools that can potentially help to overcome obstacles to collecting, analysing and displaying these data. This synthesis is intended to help researchers and resource managers understand and apply these concepts and approaches to address real-world problems in freshwater management.

Biological Reviews↗