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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Population Dynamics of Adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) Suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, 2006-08

We report results from ongoing research into the population dynamics of endangered Lost River and shortnose suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, California. Results are included for sampling that occurred from fall 2006 to spring 2008. We summarize catches and passive integrated transponder tagging efforts from trammel net sampling in fall 2006 and fall 2007, and report on detections of tagged suckers on remote antennas in the primary spawning tributary, Willow Creek, in spring 2007 and spring 2008. Results from trammel net sampling were similar to previous years, although catches of suckers in fall 2006 were lower than in 2007 and past years. Lost River and shortnose suckers combined made up about 80 percent of the sucker catch in each year, and more than 2,000 new fish were tagged across the 2 years. Only a small number of the suckers captured in fall sampling were recaptures of previously tagged fish, reinforcing the importance of remote detections of fish for capture-recapture analysis. Detections of tagged suckers in Willow Creek were low in spring 2007, presumably because of low flows. Nonetheless, the proportions of tagged fish that were detected were reasonably high and capture-recapture analyses should be possible after another year of data collection. Run timing for Lost River and shortnose suckers was well described by first detections of individuals by antennas in Willow Creek, although we may not have installed the antennas early enough in 2008 to monitor the earliest portion of the Lost River sucker migration. The duration and magnitude of the spawning runs for both species were influenced by flows and water temperature. Flows in Willow Creek were much higher in 2008 than in 2007, and far more detections were recorded in 2008 and the migrations were more protracted. In both years and for both species, migrations began in early March at water temperatures between 5 and 6 deg C and peaks were related to periods of increasing water temperature. The sex ratio of Lost River suckers detected in Willow Creek was skewed toward males, despite consistently more females having been tagged in fall sampling. This pattern indicates that some tagged female Lost River suckers may be spawning elsewhere in the system, and we intend to investigate this possibility to verify or alter the representativeness of our spring monitoring. Length frequency analysis of fall trammel net catches showed that the populations of both species in Clear Lake Reservoir have undergone major demographic transitions during the last 15 years. In the mid-1990s, the populations were dominated by larger fish and showed little evidence of recent recruitment. These larger fish apparently disappeared in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the populations are now dominated by fish that recruited into the adult populations in the late 1990s. The length frequencies from the last 4 years provide evidence of consistent recruitment into the Lost River sucker population, but provide no such evidence for the shortnose sucker population. Overall, annual growth rates for both species in Clear Lake were 2-4 times greater than growth rates for conspecifics in Upper Klamath Lake. However, little or no growth occurred for either species in Clear Lake between 2006 and 2007. Based on available evidence, we are unable to fully explain differences in growth rates between systems or among years within Clear Lake.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Monitoring of endangered Roanoke logperch ( Percina rex ) in Smith River upstream from the Philpott Reservoir on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers property near Martinsville, Virginia

The purpose of this study was to continue annual monitoring of Roanoke logperch ( Percina rex ), an endangered fish, in the Smith River immediately upstream from Philpott Reservoir. This river reach is owned by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), which must ensure that appropriate actions are undertaken to aid in recovery of logperch. Monitoring of fish abundance and habitat conditions provides a means for assessing the species’ status and its responses to USACE management actions. The Roanoke logperch is a large darter (Percidae: Etheostomatinae) endemic to the Roanoke, Dan, and Nottoway River basins of Virginia and North Carolina, where it occupies third- to sixth-order streams containing relatively silt-free substrate (Jenkins and Burkhead, 1994). Because of its rarity, small range, and vulnerability to siltation, the Roanoke logperch was listed in 1989 as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) (U.S. Federal Register 54:34468-34472). Within the Dan basin, Roanoke logperch have long been known to occupy the Smith River and one of its largest tributaries, Town Creek (Jenkins and Burkhead, 1994). Logperch also recently were discovered in other tributaries of the Dan River, including North Carolina segments of the Mayo River, Cascade Creek, Big Beaver Island Creek, Wolf Island Creek (William Hester, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, personal commun., 2012). Within the Smith River, Roanoke logperch are present both upstream and downstream from Philpott Reservoir, a hydroelectric and water storage project owned and operated by the USACE. Although logperch have not been observed in the reservoir itself, the species is relatively abundant in a free-flowing, ≈ 2.5-km-long segment of Smith River upstream from the reservoir on USACE property (Lahey and Angermeier, 2006). This segment is bounded on the downstream end by the lentic conditions of the reservoir and on the upstream end by White Falls, a natural waterfall that presumably allows fish passage during all but the lowest streamflow (Roberts and Angermeier, 2009). The ESA stipulates that USACE must ensure that its actions do not jeopardize Roanoke logperch and ensure that appropriate actions are taken to aid in the recovery of Roanoke logperch. USACE recognized that additional information was needed to assess compliance with these stipulations, including data on baseline population levels, habitat availability, and potential threats to the species on USACE property. USACE therefore contracted with Virginia Tech (VT) and the U.S. Geological Survey via the Virginia Cooperative Fisheries and Wildlife Research Unit (VCFWRU) to continue ecological monitoring that was initiated in a pilot study in 2005 (Lahey and Angermeier, 2006). The VCFWRU is jointly sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, Virginia Tech, Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries, and Wildlife Management Institute. This final report summarizes results of biological monitoring performed by VT and the VCFWRU in 2011, and compares these data to data collected during 2006–2010 (Roberts and Angermeier, 2011). Where appropriate, a comparison was made to data on Roanoke logperch collected previously in the study reach (Lahey and Angermeier, 2006) and in the upper Roanoke River (Roberts and Angermeier, 2011). This work was performed under the auspices of VT’s Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC) protocol 11-035-FIW. Specifically, the following objectives were addressed: * Estimate population density of Roanoke logperch on USACE property; * Measure and map by suitability class the distribution of habitat suitable for Roanoke logperch in the project area; * Assess water quality relative to Roanoke logperch habitat in the project area; * Use the data on logperch abundance, habitat suitability, and water quality to test the general validity of correlates of logperch abundance from other locations; * Identify opportunities and threats related to protecting and enhancing Roanoke logperch habitat; and * Provide suggestions on the necessity and scale of future studies and monitoring related to logperch in and near USACE waters.

Virginia↗
USGS2013

Evidence for density-dependent changes in growth, downstream movement, and size of Chinook salmon subyearlings in a large-river landscape

We studied the growth rate, downstream movement, and size of naturally produced fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha subyearlings (age 0) for 20 years in an 8th-order river landscape with regulated riverine upstream rearing areas and an impounded downstream migration corridor. The population transitioned from low to high abundance in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act and other federally mandated recovery efforts. The mean growth rate of parr in the river did not decline with increasing abundance, but during the period of higher abundance the timing of dispersal from riverine habitat into the reservoir averaged 17 d earlier and the average size at the time of downstream dispersal was smaller by 10 mm and 1.8 g. Changes in apparent abundance, measured by catch per unit effort, largely explained the time of dispersal, measured by median day of capture, in riverine habitat. The growth rate of smolts in the reservoir declined from an average of 0.6 to 0.2 g/d between the abundance periods because the reduction in size at reservoir entry was accompanied by a tendency to migrate rather than linger and by increasing concentrations of smolts in the reservoir. The median date of passage through the reservoir was 14 d earlier on average, and average smolt size was smaller by 38 mm and 22.0 g, in accordance with density-dependent behavioral changes reflected by decreased smolt growth. Unexpectedly, smolts during the high-abundance period had begun to reexpress the migration timing and size phenotypes observed before the river was impounded, when abundance was relatively high. Our findings provide evidence for density-dependent phenotypic change in a large river that was influenced by the expansion of a recovery program. Thus, this study shows that efforts to recover native fishes can have detectable effects in large-river landscapes. The outcome of such phenotypic change, which will be an important area of future research, can only be fully judged by examining the effect of the change on population viability and productivity.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2022

Geomorphic responses of fluvial systems to climate change: A habitat perspective

Fluvial systems provide a variety of habitats that support thousands of species including many that are threatened or endangered. Moreover, these habitats, which range from aquatic and riparian to floodplain, are important for the variety of ecosystem services they provide. In addition to water temperature and streamflow change, geomorphic change is important and warrants consideration as one of the several potential threats to these habitats posed by climate change. The geomorphic response of fluvial systems to global warming in temperate environments, for example, caused by an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods, is important because geomorphology is a primary determinant of habitat availability and quality. Possible geomorphic responses include increased erosion and (or) deposition in the river channel, riparian zone, and floodplain with associated habitat implications. Geomorphic changes caused by global warming can be beneficial (e.g., increased habitat complexity) or detrimental (e.g., mortality caused by scour or burial) to biota. The ability of a species to respond to and survive disturbances, including geomorphic changes, will depend on the nature of the disturbances and the sensitivity and adaptive capabilities of the species. Post-flood recovery often is rapid; however, for certain species (e.g., periphyton, macroinvertebrates), changes in community composition may persist. Increased flood frequency, sediment mobility, and associated geomorphic changes potentially will result in more frequent and persistent changes in habitat and community composition in the affected fluvial systems.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2008

Near-shore and off-shore habitat use by endangered juvenile Lost River and Shortnose Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon: 2006 data summary

Lost River suckers Deltistes luxatus and shortnose suckers Chasmistes brevirostris , listed as endangered in 1988 under the Endangered Species Act, have shown infrequent recruitment into adult populations in Upper Klamath Lake (NRC 2004). In an effort to understand the causes behind and provide management solutions to apparent recruitment failure, a number of studies have been conducted including several on larval and juvenile sucker habitat use. Near-shore areas in Upper Klamath Lake with emergent vegetation, especially those near the mouth of the Williamson River, were identified as important habitat for larval suckers (Cooperman and Markle 2000; Reiser et al. 2001). Terwilliger et al. (2004) characterized primary age-0 sucker habitat as near-shore areas in the southern portion of Upper Klamath Lake with gravel and cobble substrates. Reiser et al. (2001) provided some evidence that juvenile suckers use habitats with emergent vegetation, but nothing concerning the extent or timing of use. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began investigating the importance of near-shore and off-shore habitats with and without emergent vegetation for juvenile suckers in 2000. We found substantial numbers of juvenile suckers using these habitats near the mouth of the Williamson River into late August (VanderKooi and Buelow 2003). The distribution and relative abundance of juvenile suckers showed high spatial variability throughout the summer for all species combined, Lost River suckers, and shortnose suckers (VanderKooi et al. 2006; Hendrixson et al. 2007a). Results from sampling near-shore areas in 2002 suggested juvenile sucker proximity to shoreline changes depending on the presence or absence of shoreline vegetation (VanderKooi et al. 2006), whereas in 2004 and 2005 results were equivocal (Hendrixson et al. 2007a, 2007b). Research by USGS of juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake conducted since 2000 provides a valuable long-term data set which can be used to evaluate multi-year trends in juvenile sucker relative abundance and habitat use. Data on the relative abundance of juvenile suckers and their habitat use patterns will provide valuable information to guide restoration and management decisions in the Upper Klamath Basin. Information on juvenile sucker catch rates may also be valuable for evaluating year class success, estimating early life stage survival rates, and predicting upper bounds of future recruitment to adult spawning populations. We continued sampling juvenile suckers in 2006 as part of an effort to develop bioenergetics models for juvenile Lost River and shortnose suckers. This study required us to collect fish to determine growth rates and energy content of juvenile suckers. We followed the sampling protocols and methods described by Hendrixson et al. (2007b) to maintain continuity and facilitate comparisons with data collected in recent years, but sampled at a reduced level of effort compared to previous years (approximately one-third) due to limited funding. Here we present a summary of catch data collected in 2006. Bioenergetics models will be reported separately

Oregon↗
USGS2009

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

Report↗
USGS2024

Cold blood in warming waters: Effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitats in a changing climate

Objective In a changing climate, the effects of air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater on water temperature and thermal habitat suitability for Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser desotoi , listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, are not well understood. Hence, we incorporated these factors into thermal habitat models to forecast how Gulf Sturgeon may be affected by wide‐ranging climate change scenarios in 2024–2074. Methods Using data from the Choctawhatchee River, Florida, we developed precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected air–water temperature models, compared their accuracy with that of conventional air–water temperature models used in fisheries management, and projected future Gulf Sturgeon thermal habitat suitability for normal physiological functioning and fieldwork (i.e., population sampling and telemetry surgeries) in summer (May–August) under 16 climate change scenarios. Result Precipitation‐ and groundwater‐corrected models were more accurate than conventional air–water temperature models (mean improvement in adjusted R 2 = +0.45; range = +0.09 to +0.75). Water temperature was projected to warm at widely variable rates across climate change scenarios encompassing different air temperature, precipitation, and groundwater regimes. Importantly, Gulf Sturgeon summer aggregation areas were cooler and influenced more by precipitation and groundwater and less by air temperature than were non‐aggregation areas. If precipitation and groundwater—as drivers of cooling—become warm in a changing climate, summer aggregation areas were projected to exhibit thermal habitat degradation equivalent to or greater than that of non‐aggregation areas. Conclusion Our results add hydrological context to the premise that aggregation areas provide cool water and energetic savings for Gulf Sturgeon during summer, underscoring the importance of protecting these habitats through groundwater conservation, water quality monitoring, and riparian/watershed habitat management. Our findings indicate that identifying thermally appropriate times for fieldwork activities will be increasingly important and time‐restricted as climate change intensifies. However, our research provides managers with a portfolio of water temperature models and an accurate, cost‐effective, management‐relevant approach to forecasting thermal habitat conditions for Gulf Sturgeon and other species in a changing climate.

Alabama, Florida↗
USGS2024

Management implications of habitat selection by whooping cranes (Grus americana) on the Texas coast

Effective habitat management for rare and endangered species requires a thorough understanding of their specific habitat requirements. Although machine learning models have been increasingly used in the analyses of habitat use by wildlife, the primary focus of these models has been on generating spatial predictions. In this study, we used machine learning models in combination with simulated management actions to guide planning and inform managers. We used data from 61 whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) tagged with GPS telemetry collars between 2009 and 2018 near Aransas National Wildlife Refuge in coastal Texas. We included variables based on topography, land use classification, vegetation height, plant phenology, drought, storm surge events, and both wild and prescribed fires. We then built models at multiple scales: population level, home range level, and roosting and daytime within home range level. We simulated responses to the two primary management actions used to enhance whooping crane habitat on Aransas National Wildlife Refuge: prescribed fire and removal of woody vegetation. At the population and home range scales, land use classification variables had the highest importance values, whereas the combined elevation and bathymetry layer was the most important predictor at both roosting and daytime within home range scales. Our findings revealed that the effects of fire, although generally modest, varied spatially. Areas dominated by estuarine wetlands exhibited higher predicted use within the first months after a fire, whereas those dominated by palustrine wetlands were more likely to be avoided in the immediate postfire years. Our simulation of vegetation removal identified the areas on Aransas National Wildlife Refuge where whooping cranes were predicted to benefit the most if vegetation were removed. These techniques can be used by other researchers wanting to examine and predict the effects of potential management actions on target species habitat.

Texas↗
USGS2021

Identifying information gaps in predicting winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon

The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the availability of critical habitat during winter months in six estuaries. Large information gaps, especially related to critical estuarine habitat for juveniles, hinder recovery efforts to protect these habitats and assess risks from emerging threats. Using Apalachicola Bay, Florida, as a model system, we developed and analyzed a preliminary Bayesian network model so that we could identify knowledge gaps (i.e., where expert knowledge was lacking) and data gaps (i.e., where data were unavailable) that limit the ability to assess the quantity of critical estuarine habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon. The model hypothesized habitat availability per winter month in estuarine habitat under alternative scenarios of river discharge and length of the winter foraging season. A search for geospatial data sets revealed that the largest gap involved salinity, temperature, and oxygen (i.e., water condition) monitoring data, with data available only for Apalachicola Bay. For the Apalachicola Bay model, data gaps prevented the development of 53% of water condition geospatial data sets and a sensitivity analysis showed that water condition data most limited the ability to predict habitat availability. Expert knowledge was low, and conditional certainty scores showed that the relationships with the lowest certainty were abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Reducing information gaps could aid the development of a model that is appropriate for informing management. Future efforts could prioritize the expansion of water monitoring within critical habitat estuaries and predicting abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Bayesian network models can easily incorporate prior and new information for complex systems. Thus, our model could be updated as future research and monitoring efforts close these information gaps.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Accuracy of the Missouri River Least Tern and Piping Plover Monitoring Program: considerations for the future

The upper Missouri River system provides nesting and foraging habitat for federally endangered least terns (Sternula antillarum; hereafter “terns”) and threatened piping plovers (Charadrius melodus; hereafter “plovers”). These species are the subject of substantial management interest on the Missouri River for several reasons. First, ecosystem recovery is a goal for management agencies that seek to maintain or restore natural functions and native biological communities for the Missouri River system. Terns and plovers are recognized as important ecosystem components that are linked with the river’s ecological functions. Second, although both species breed beyond the Missouri River system, the Missouri River is one of the principal breeding areas in the Northern Great Plains; thus, the river system is a focal area for recovery actions targeted at regional population goals. Third, a Biological Opinion for Missouri River operations established annual productivity goals for terns and plovers, and the recovery plan for each species established annual population goals. Meeting these goals is a key motivation in management decision making and implementation with regard to both species. A myriad of conservation and management interests necessitate understanding numbers, distribution, and productivity of terns and plovers on the Missouri River system. To this end, a Tern and Plover Monitoring Program (TPMP) was implemented by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (hereafter “Corps”) in 1986, and has since provided annual estimates of tern and plover numbers and productivity for five Missouri River reservoirs and four river reaches (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1993). The TPMP has served as the primary source of information about the status of terns and plovers on the Missouri River, and TPMP data have been used for a wide variety of purposes. In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) was tasked by the Corps to evaluate the accuracy of the TPMP and provide guidance on revising the program to assess tern and plover numbers and reproductive success. Accordingly, NPWRC studied terns and plovers on two river reaches and one reservoir (hereafter “the evaluation”), and used the results of those studies to help understand properties and potential limitations of TPMP data and to provide guidance for TPMP revisions. The purpose of this report is to present an overview and evaluation of the TPMP data, the results of our intensive monitoring, and propose an alternative idea that provides a framework for making decisions about how to monitor terns and plovers.

Montana;Nebraska;North Dakota;South Dakota↗
USGS2021

Navigating the science-policy interface

As a wildlife population ecologist who wants to conduct useful science, I find the Endangered Species Act (ESA), like other federal wildlife statutes, an intriguing read. The topic is in my wheelhouse—fish, wildlife, and plants, with a focus at the population and species levels. There is an emphasis on science, in fact, the “best scientific and commercial data available.” And there are intriguing questions: what threats does a species face? What habitat would be critical for its survival? Could any federal actions put the species or critical habitat in greater peril? I am not alone in this attraction. Hundreds of scientists continue to consider the types of scientific analysis suggested by the ESA. The enthusiasm is palpable. If the first cursory read of the ESA is intriguing to me as a scientist, the second close read is tantalizing—I realize that something very attractive is just out of reach. I know how to estimate the probability of extinction, but I do not know what “in danger of extinction” means. I know how to evaluate the incremental change in status that might arise from some level of proposed take, but I do not know what “is not likely to jeopardize the continued existence” of a species means. The standards expressed in the statute are not stated in purely scientific terms. Thus, ESA decisions cannot be based solely on science, and require additional policy interpretation. Clarity about these policy interpretations—even awareness that they are needed—can be hard to find, leaving a gap between what I can provide as a scientist and what an ESA decision maker needs. This awareness of the interaction between science and policy is also occurring in the larger field of conservation science, where there has been an increasing recognition of a research-implementation gap, the need for actionable science, and the promise of translational ecology. All of these terms emphasize that science alone does not result in action; instead, action arises out of decisions that are informed both by science and by values. At the interface of science and policy, a scientist can deliver relevant knowledge, and a decision maker can explain the policy context in which that science is needed. As a scientist wanting to conduct useful science, I crave this two-way conversation. But how can this conversation be structured in a meaningful and appropriate way? In this chapter, I explore how decision analysis can be used to navigate the science-policy interface for ESA decisions. Decision analysis is a large, well-established field that studies how decisions are made and how they could be made, with explicit attention given to clarifying and separating the values-based and science-based elements of a decision; identifying the impediments that make a decision difficult; and providing tools to overcome those impediments. There have been concerted efforts to apply formal decision analysis to ESA decisions, but the practice is not yet widespread across both the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service (the Services). The chapter begins with an introduction to decision analysis and how it seeks to bridge the science-policy interface. In subsequent sections, I explore how a decision analyst might frame listing and reclassification decisions, recovery planning, section 7 consultation, budget allocations, and a few other ESA decisions, with an emphasis on two questions: for each type of decision, what policy clarifications does the decision maker need to make; and knowing the policy context, what type of scientific assessment is needed. In the final discussion, I identify common themes among the types of decisions, and offer thoughts on how decision analysis could be more widely used to integrate science into ESA decisions.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Large-scale distribution models for optimal prediction of Eastern black rail habitat within tidal ecosystems

Eastern black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis ) are among the rarest and least-studied birds in North America and were recently listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Spatial models that predict habitat quality across the subspecies range are therefore needed to inform conservation, recovery, and monitoring efforts for this rare bird. We used data from 47,585 call-broadcast surveys collected at 7906 sites over a 3-decade period (1990s, 2000s, 2010s; 23 total years) to build species distribution models for eastern black rails. We used hierarchical Bayesian occupancy models and predictive model selection to develop multi-scale models that optimally predict habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands while also accounting for imperfect detection of these cryptic birds during field surveys. We also used raster regression techniques to translate model predictions into 30-m resolution maps of habitat suitability for eastern black rails within tidal wetlands along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The model predicted suitability of breeding habitat as a function of wetland attributes (e.g., cover of high marsh and terrestrial border), hydrologic modification, and disturbance from human development measured over multiple spatial scales. We also found differences in habitat relationships for eastern black rails when compared to models that included both North American subspecies of black rail. Important results included negative effects of shrub-scrub wetlands, and strong positive effects of high marsh, terrestrial border, and impoundments on breeding season occupancy. Our study provides an example of integrating detection-non-detection data and modern statistical methods to build predictive distribution models for an extremely rare species, while also providing rigorous predictions of breeding habitat quality for the eastern black rail within tidal wetlands. These models will facilitate optimal monitoring, habitat conservation, and recovery planning efforts for eastern black rails and provide a foundation for future research and conservation of this imperiled bird.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2024

Identifying conservation introduction sites for endangered birds through the integration of lidar-based habitat suitability models and population viability analyses

Similar to other single-island endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers, the critically endangered ‘ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) is threatened by climate-driven disease spread. To avert the imminent risk of extinction, managers are considering novel measures, including the conservation introduction (CI) of ‘ākohekohe from Maui to higher elevation habitats on the Island of Hawai’i. This study integrated lidar-based habitat suitability models (LHSMs) and population viability analyses (PVAs) to assess five candidate sites currently considered by managers for CI. We first developed an LHSM for the species’ native range on Maui. We then projected habitat suitability across candidate CI sites, using forest structure and topography metrics standardized across sensor types. Given the structural variability observed within the five candidate sites, we identified clusters of contiguous, highly suitable habitat as potential release sites. We then determined how many adult individuals could be supported by each cluster based on adult home range estimates. To determine which clusters could house the minimum number of ‘ākohekohe birds necessary for a stable or increasing future population, we conducted PVAs under multiple scenarios of bird releases. We found that canopy height and relative height 90 had the greatest effects on model performance, possibly reflecting ‘ākohekohe’s preference for taller canopies. We found that a small release of at least nine pairs of equal sex ratios were sufficient for an 80% chance of success and a <1% chance of extirpation in 20 years, resulting in a minimum release area of 4.5 ha in size. We integrated the results of the LHSM and PVA into an interactive web application that allowed managers to consider the caveats and uncertainties associated with both LHSMs and PVAs in their decision-making process. As climate change continues to threaten species worldwide, this research demonstrates the value of lidar remote sensing combined with species-specific models to enable rapid, quantitative assessments that can inform the increasing consideration of time-sensitive conservation introductions.

Hawaii↗
USGS2014

Developing a topographic model to predict the northern hardwood forest type within Carolina northern flying squirrel ( Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus ) recovery areas of the southern Appalachians

The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus ) for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI) are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score) for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia↗
USGS2014

Do management actions to restore rare habitat benefit native fish conservation? Distribution of juvenile native fish among shoreline habitats of the Colorado River

Many management actions in aquatic ecosystems are directed at restoring or improving specific habitats to benefit fish populations. In the Grand Canyon reach of the Colorado River, experimental flow operations as part of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program have been designed to restore sandbars and associated backwater habitats. Backwaters can have warmer water temperatures than other habitats, and native fish, including the federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha , are frequently observed in backwaters, leading to a common perception that this habitat is critical for juvenile native fish conservation. However, it is unknown how fish densities in backwaters compare with that in other habitats or what proportion of juvenile fish populations reside in backwaters. Here, we develop and fit multi-species hierarchical models to estimate habitat-specific abundances and densities of juvenile humpback chub, bluehead sucker Catostomus discobolus , flannelmouth sucker Catostomus latipinnis and speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus in a portion of the Colorado River. Densities of all four native fish were greatest in backwater habitats in 2009 and 2010. However, backwaters are rare and ephemeral habitats, so they contain only a small portion of the overall population. For example, the total abundance of juvenile humpback chub in this study was much higher in talus than in backwater habitats. Moreover, when we extrapolated relative densities based on estimates of backwater prevalence directly after a controlled flood, the majority of juvenile humpback chub were still found outside of backwaters. This suggests that the role of controlled floods in influencing native fish population trends may be limited in this section of the Colorado River.

Arizona↗
USGS1999

The ecological condition of estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is a vast natural resource encompassing the coastal areas of western Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas, as well as a portion of Mexico. Many estuaries flow into the Gulf of Mexico and serve as nursery grounds for fish, habitat for a wide variety of wildlife, shipping routes, and a source of recreation. Estuarine-dependent species constitute more than 95 percent of the commercial fishery harvests from the Gulf of Mexico, and many important recreational fishery species depend on estuaries during some part of their life cycle. Gulf estuaries are diverse and productive ecosystems that provide a variety of valuable resources, including fish and shellfish, recreation, transportation, and water supply. Assessing the overall condition of Gulf of Mexico estuaries required incorporating data from other federal, state, and local monitoring programs to augment the information on ecological indicators collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). The resulting document would provide a synthesis of the available knowledge about the condition of Gulf of Mexico estuaries. This document is intended for use by scientists and other citizens concerned with the ecological condition of estuaries, as well as by managers and lawmakers interested in the sustained use of estuaries for commercial and recreational purposes. It also addresses public concerns about the aesthetic quality of coastal areas vital to tourism and recreation. By producing this report on the ecological condition of estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico, we have taken one step in assessing the health of this environmental resource. We have produced an environmental “report card” to be used as a guide in the evaluation of management decisions and research directions. This report is organized in three parts: (1) an introduction that gives background information on the Gulf of Mexico, estuarine ecology, and the factors that impact estuaries in the gulf, (2) the main section on priority ecological indicators used to measure the condition of estuaries in the gulf and (3) an ecological report card that summarizes the data on ecological indicators and provides a rating of the condition of estuaries in each gulf state and for gulf estuaries overall. Many of the ratings were based on the percent area of estuaries in each state exhibiting degraded or adverse levels of an indicator. Eutrophication, a condition of high nutrients often resulting in low oxygen levels and other adverse effects, is an important water quality concern for estuaries along the gulf coast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has compared the Gulf of Mexico to other coastal regions like the middle Atlantic and has ranked the Gulf of Mexico as having the highest number of point sources of nutrients and the highest percentage of land use devoted to agriculture. We evaluated monitoring data for nitrogen, chlorophyll, and dissolved oxygen as indicators of eutrophication. Although most of the estuaries exhibited high nitrogen or chlorophyll or low dissolved oxygen concentrations at least once during a survey, many times these conditions were observed in small rivers or bayous rather than in the entire estuary. Often, the percent area affected was low. The gulf estuaries had moderate conditions overall for nutrients and dissolved oxygen. Definite nutrient problems were observed in >25% of the estuarine area in Louisiana and Texas and definite dissolved oxygen problems were observed in Alabama. Contaminants in estuarine sediments provide evidence of the accumulation of chemicals from anthropogenic sources. We compared the concentrations of sediment contaminants to established guideline values to determine the proportion of estuarine area that could have potential adverse effects on living organisms. Although detectable levels of contaminants were measured in almost every estuary in the Gulf of Mexico, <25% of the estuarine area in all states had contaminant concentrations that exceeded these guidelines. Wetlands are integral parts of estuarine systems. Declining acreage means habitat loss that may be the result of commercial and residential development, hydrologic alterations, or dredge and fill operations. The Gulf of Mexico region contains more than 50% of the coastal wetland acreage in the U.S. and yet it also has the highest rate of coastal wetland loss. Nine of the top ten estuarine drainage areas ranked by total wetland area are in the Gulf of Mexico region. The most current estimates of total wetland loss over the past 200 years range from 41% to 54% for the gulf states. Although coastal wetlands continue to be altered or destroyed, some estimates indicate that the rate of loss has slowed. All gulf states were rated as having severe problems with wetland loss. The condition of benthic (bottom-dwelling) invertebrates, fish and shellfish, birds, and threatened and endangered species was used to evaluate the health of estuarine fauna. Degraded benthic communities inhabited <25% of the estuarine area in all gulf states except for Texas. Commercial fish and shellfish landings may be used as an indicator of population stability while fish biomarkers are used to measure the health of individuals in the population. Commercial landings of the top four fisheries (shrimp, menhaden, blue crab, and oyster) are stable in the gulf states while fish biomarkers indicate fair to poor fish health in Alabama and Texas and good fish health elsewhere. Coastal and marine bird populations appear to be in good condition throughout the gulf. Four threatened or endangered species inhabit coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico: brown pelican, Gulf sturgeon, manatee, and Kemp’s ridley sea turtle. In general, populations of these species are in good to fair condition in the gulf states. Public health indicators include shellfish bed closures and chemicals found in edible fish tissue. Harvest of shellfish (primarily oyster in the Gulf of Mexico) is restricted or prohibited when concentrations of bacteria or other pathogens reach levels that could impair human health. The gulf states contain the most acreage of shellfish-growing waters in the U.S. but also have the most acreage restricted for harvest. All gulf states except Mississippi have >25% of their shellfish-growing waters restricted for harvest, mostly due to pollution from wastewater treatment plants or other upstream sources. Advisories may be issued that limit consumption when the concentrations of chemicals in fish tissue exceed levels known to be harmful to humans. Although seafood consumption advisories have been issued in all gulf states, the percent of the fish population with high concentrations of contaminants is relatively low in the gulf overall.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2018

Evaluating flow management as a strategy to recover an endangered sturgeon species in the Upper Missouri River, USA

In the Upper Missouri River, Fort Peck and Garrison Dams limit the length of free‐flowing river available to the endangered pallid sturgeon. These barriers restrict the upstream migration of adults and downstream larval dispersal. A one‐dimensional (1D) modelling framework is currently in use to evaluate reservoir operation alternatives and to simulate drift of dispersing free embryos for different flow regimes and reservoir stages. This paper presents the results of a large‐scale tracer experiment conducted in 2016 and associated modelling performed to evaluate flow management scenarios that might aid species recovery. Breakthrough curves from the tracer experiment were used to infer the 1D longitudinal dispersion coefficient from a parameter optimization procedure. Simulations generated using the calibrated 1D advection–dispersion model were compared with field observations of the passive tracer and with larval fish collected during a previous experiment in 2007. When used with the appropriate range of dispersion coefficients, the 1D modelling framework agrees well with the available direct measurements of larval drift distances. Although we cannot unequivocally state whether insufficient length of free‐flowing river alone is causing recruitment failure, given the current thermal regime and our understanding of pallid sturgeon development, the time required for pallid sturgeon to transition to the benthos and initiate feeding might exceed the duration of drift available given constraints of reservoir operations.

Missouri↗
USGS2011

Status and distribution of the Kittlitz's murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris in Kenai Fjords, Alaska

The Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris is a candidate species for listing under the US Endangered Species Act because of its apparent declines within core population areas of coastal Alaska. During the summers of 2006-2008, we conducted surveys in marine waters adjacent to Kenai Fjords National Park, Alaska, to estimate the current population size of Kittlitz's and Marbled murrelets B. marmoratus and examine seasonal variability in distribution within coastal fjords. We also evaluated historical data to estimate trend. Based on an average of point estimates, we find the recent population (95% CI) of Kittlitz's Murrelet to be 716 (353-1080) individuals, that of Marbled Murrelet to be 6690 (5427-7953) individuals, and all Brachyramphus murrelets combined to number 8186 (6978-9393) birds. Within-season density estimates showed Kittlitz's Murrelets generally increased between June and July, but dispersed rapidly by August, while Marbled Murrelets generally increased throughout the summer. Trends in Kittlitz's and Marbled murrelet populations were difficult to assess with confidence. Methods for counting or sampling murrelets varied in early decades of study, while in later years there is uncertainty due to highly variable counts among years, which may be due in part to timing of surveys relative to the spring bloom in coastal waters of the Gulf of Alaska.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗