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At least 487 records · Page 27Linked to original sources
USGS2020

A synthesis of evidence of drivers of amphibian declines

Early calls for robust long-term time series of amphibian population data, stemming from discussion following the first World Congress of Herpetology, are now being realized after 25 yr of focused research. Inference from individual studies and locations have contributed to a basic consensus on drivers of amphibian declines. Until recently there were no large-scale syntheses of long-term time series data to test hypotheses about the generality of factors driving population dynamics at broad spatial scales. Through the U.S. Geological Survey's Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, we brought together a group of scientists to elucidate mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America and Europe. We used time series of field data collected across dozens of study areas to make inferences with these combined data using hierarchical and spatial models. We bring together results from four syntheses of these data to summarize our state of knowledge of amphibian declines, identify commonalities that suggest further avenues of study, and suggest a way forward in addressing amphibian declines—by looking beyond specific drivers to how to achieve stability in remaining populations. The common thread of the syntheses is that declines are real but not ubiquitous, and that multiple factors drive declines but the relative importance of each factor varies among species, populations, and regions. We also found that climate is an important driver of amphibian population dynamics. However, the direction and magnitude of sensitivity to change vary among species in ways unlikely to explain overall rates of decline. Thirty years after the initial identification of a major catastrophe for global biodiversity, the scientific community has empirically demonstrated the reality of the problem, identified putative causes, provided evidence of their impacts, invested in broader-scale actions, and attempted meta-analyses to search out global drivers. We suggest an approach that focuses on key demographic rates that may improve amphibian population trends at multiple sites across the landscape.

Herpetologica↗
USGS2008

Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal development limits the ecosystem services and adaptations important to their survival. Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex due to interacting geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater discharge, waves, and constituents of sediment, nutrients and saltwater. These interactions limit developing a comprehensive framework for science-based sustainable management practices. A suite of models have been developed independently by various academic and government institutions worldwide to understand the dynamics of mangrove ecosystems and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different management scenarios and natural disturbance regimes. The models have progressed from statistical tables representing growth and yield to more sophisticated models describing various system components and processes. Among these models are three individual-based models (IBMs) (FORMAN, KIWI, and MANGRO). A comparison of models’ designs reveal differences in the details of process description, particularly, regarding neighbor competition among trees. Each model has thus its specific range of applications. Whereas FORMAN and KIWI are most suitable to address mangrove forest dynamics of stands, MANGRO focuses on landscape dynamics on larger spatial scale. A comparison of the models and a comparison of the models with empirical knowledge further reveal the general needs for further field and validation studies to advance our ecological understanding and management of mangrove wetlands.

Aquatic Botany↗
USGS2020

Climate and local environment structure asynchrony and the stability of primary production in grasslands

Aim Climate variability threatens to destabilize production in many ecosystems. Asynchronous species dynamics may buffer against such variability when a decrease in performance by some species is offset by an increase in performance of others. However, high climatic variability can eliminate species through stochastic extinctions or cause similar stress responses among species that reduce buffering. Local conditions, such as soil nutrients, can also alter production stability directly or by influencing asynchrony. We test these hypotheses using a globally distributed sampling experiment. Location Grasslands in North America, Europe and Australia. Time period Annual surveys over 5 year intervals occurring between 2007 and 2014. Major taxa studied Herbaceous plants. Methods We sampled annually the per species cover and aboveground community biomass [net primary productivity (NPP)], plus soil chemical properties, in 29 grasslands. We tested how soil conditions, combined with variability in precipitation and temperature, affect species richness, asynchrony and temporal stability of primary productivity. We used bivariate relationships and structural equation modelling to examine proximate and ultimate relationships. Results Climate variability strongly predicted asynchrony, whereas NPP stability was more related to soil conditions. Species richness was structured by both climate variability and soils and, in turn, increased asynchrony. Variability in temperature and precipitation caused a unimodal asynchrony response, with asynchrony being lowest at low and high climate variability. Climate impacted stability indirectly, through its effect on asynchrony, with stability increasing at higher asynchrony owing to lower inter‐annual variability in NPP. Soil conditions had no detectable effect on asynchrony but increased stability by increasing the mean NPP, especially when soil organic matter was high. Main conclusions We found globally consistent evidence that climate modulates species asynchrony but that the direct effect on stability is low relative to local soil conditions. Nonetheless, our observed unimodal responses to variability in temperature and precipitation suggest asynchrony thresholds, beyond which there are detectable destabilizing impacts of climate on primary productivity.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2019

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: Insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatio-temporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 years of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

Florida↗
USGS2011

The Hydrogeology of the San Juan Mountains Chapter 5

Knowledge of the occurrence, storage, and flow of groundwater in mountainous regions is limited by the lack of integrated data from wells, streams, springs, and climate. In his comprehensive treatment of the hydrogeology of the San Luis Valley, Huntley (1979) hypothesized that the underlying, fractured volcanic bedrock of the San Juan Mountains has relatively high bulk permeability and a regional-scale water table with a low hydraulic gradient. Other (some more recent) studies of fractured crystalline bedrock in mountainous terrain indicate that these rock units can act as aquifers (Kahn et al. 2008; Manning and Caine 2007; Robinson 1978; Stober and Bucher 2005). The body of recent work also suggests that the conception that fractured crystalline bedrock is of such low permeability that it constitutes a “no-flow zone” may be inappropriate. In addition to establishing a new baseline, the data presented here are used to test Huntley’s (1979) hypotheses that suggest that the San Juan Mountains may be underlain by a substantial groundwater system. With the advent of computers and digital databases, many types of publicly available data can be used to test hypotheses and provide new insights into mountain hydrogeology at the regional scale in the San Juan Mountains. Plate 16 illustrates processes that suggest several fundamental questions arising from our lack of knowledge of mountain hydrogeology. These questions include: What are the dynamic interrelationships among the tectonics of mountain building, climate, and groundwater, and what are the time scales over which associated processes operate? How does extreme topographic relief allow for groundwater recharge along steep surfaces rather than simply causing precipitation to run off ? How does extreme relief translate into hydraulic gradients that drive groundwater flow? Can extreme gradients drive large volumes of meteoric water deep into the Earth’s upper crust? Once in the subsurface, what are the residence times of these waters? Finally, how does complex geology, commonly associated with mountainous terrain, influence these processes and control potentially heterogeneous and tortuous flow pathways? This chapter presents a synthesis of hydrogeological data, in a reconnaissance style, at the regional scale for the San Juan Mountains. Analyses of these data shed some light on the questions posed earlier for the San Juan Mountains and on mountain hydrogeologic processes in general. These analyses are based on public digital data from geologic and topographic maps, precipitation networks, stream gauges, groundwater wells, and springs. These data can be integrated using the hydrologic cycle expressed as a mass balance between inputs and outputs. The data types noted earlier form the basic set of measurements used to explore, characterize, and quantify elements of the hydrologic cycle. This exploration at a variety of scales yields insight into the relationships among the physical geological framework, climatological and hydrological budgets, and the hydraulic properties of the major aquifers in the San Juan Mountains. Each of these factors has been broken down and investigated separately and then integrated at the end of the chapter, using a conceptual model. Although the San Juan Mountains contain extensive precious- and base-metal deposits that have led to natural and mining-related groundwater contamination, this topic is not addressed here. Interested readers should refer to the extensive body of US Geological Survey work in Gray et al. (1994), Plumlee et al. (1995), Wirt et al. (1999), Johnson and Yager (2006), Johnson et al. (2007), and Church, von Guerard, and Finger (2007). Huntley (1979) also provided a large database for regional hydro-geochemistry of the San Juan Mountains (SJM).

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Spatio-temporal patterns and climate variables controlling of biomass carbon stock of global grassland ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y −1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production). The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2015

Effects of climate and plant phenology on recruitment of moose at the southern extent of their range

Climate plays a fundamental role in limiting the range of a species, is a key factor in the dynamics of large herbivores, and is thought to be involved in declines of moose populations in recent decades. We examined effects of climate and growing-season phenology on recruitment (8–9 months old) of young Shiras moose ( Alces alces shirasi ) over three decades, from 18 herds, across a large geographic area encompassing much of the southern extent of their range. Recruitment declined in 8 of 18 herds during 1980–2009, whereas others did not exhibit a temporal trend (none showed a positive trend). During those three decades, seasonal temperatures increased, spring–summer precipitation decreased, and spring occurred earlier, became shorter in duration, and green-up occurred faster. Recruitment was influenced negatively by warm temperatures during the year before young were born, but only for herds with declining recruitment. Dry spring–summers of the previous year and rapid rates of spring green-up in the year of birth had similar negative influences across declining and stable herds. Those patterns indicate both direct (year t ) and delayed (year t− 1 ) effects of weather and plant phenology on recruitment of young, which we hypothesize was mediated through effects on maternal nutritional condition. Suppressed nutrition could have been induced by (1) increased thermoregulatory costs associated with warming temperatures and (2) shortened duration of availability of high-quality forage in spring. Progressive reductions in net energetic gain for species that are sensitive to climate may continue to hamper individual fitness and population dynamics.

Oecologia↗
USGS2016

Increased temperatures combined with lowered salinities differentially impact oyster size class growth and mortality

Changes in the timing and interaction of seasonal high temperatures and low salinities as predicted by climate change models could dramatically alter oyster population dynamics. Little is known explicitly about how low salinity and high temperature combinations affect spat (<25mm), seed (25–75mm), andmarket (>75mm) oyster growth and mortality. Using field and laboratory studies, this project quantified the combined effects of extremely low salinities (<5) and high temperatures (>30°C) on growth and survival of spat, seed, andmarket-sized oysters. In 2012 and 2013, hatchery-produced oysters were placed in open and closed cages at three sites in Breton Sound, LA, along a salinity gradient that typically ranged from 5 to 20. Growth and mortality were recorded monthly. Regardless of size class, oysters at the lowest salinity site (annualmean = 4.8) experienced significantly highermortality and lower growth than oysters located in higher salinity sites (annual means = 11.1 and 13.0, respectively); furthermore, all oysters in open cages at the two higher salinity sites experienced higher mortality than in closed cages, likely due to predation. To explicitly examine oyster responses to extreme low salinity and high temperature combinations, a series of laboratory studies were conducted. Oysters were placed in 18 tanks in a fully crossed temperature (25°C, 32°C) by salinity (1, 5, and 15) study with three replicates, and repeated at least twice for each oyster size class. Regardless of temperature, seed and market oysters held in low salinity tanks (salinity 1) experienced 100% mortality within 7 days. In contrast, at salinity 5, temperature significantly affected mortality; oysters in all size classes experienced greater than 50%mortality at 32°C and less than 40%mortality at 25°C. At the highest salinity tested (15), only market-sized oysters held at 32°C experienced significant mortality (>60%). These studies demonstrate that high water temperatures (>30°C) and low salinities (<5) negatively impact oyster growth and survival differentially and that high temperatures alone may negatively impact market-sized oysters. It is critical to understand the potential impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes on oyster resources to better adapt and manage for long-term sustainability.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

Landscape evolution of a fluvial sediment-rich Avicennia marina mangrove forest: Insights from seasonal and inter-annual surface-elevation dynamics

Mangrove forests are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise associated with climate warming because they occupy a relatively narrow zone on the mid-to-upper-intertidal flats. The fate of these ecosystems largely depends on their capacity to accrete sediment at a rate sufficient to maintain their elevation relative to sea level. We investigated the role of biophysical processes and feedbacks controlling surface-elevation dynamics in a fluvial sediment-rich Avicennia marina mangrove forest (New Zealand) at seasonal-to-inter-annual timescales (over 9 years) using the Rod Surface Elevation Table method. We found that sediment accretion in the forest was not measurably enhanced by episodic and short-lived storm discharges from rivers nor by elevated sea levels during storms. Critically, the coupling of frequent onshore winds and resulting resuspension of intertidal muds, with the fortnightly cycle of spring tide inundation, controlled sediment delivery and resulting accretion rates of 13 to 47 mm y −1 . In turn, net surface-elevation trends of 0 to 28 mm y −1 were dominated by the physical processes of sediment accretion and shallow subsidence due to seasonal desiccation and resulting compaction of the infrequently inundated forest platform (4 to 16 mm y −1 ). Our data suggest that monthly and seasonal variation in tidally controlled hydroperiod and sediment delivery rather than episodic storm events are important for the maintenance of mangrove elevation within the intertidal zone.

Firth of Thames↗
USGS2017

Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multi-decade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish, across the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11 ° C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long-term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially non-hybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human-mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

New insights into nitrate dynamics in a karst groundwater system gained from in situ high-frequency optical sensor measurements

Understanding nitrate dynamics in groundwater systems as a function of climatic conditions, especially during contrasting patterns of drought and wet cycles, is limited by a lack of temporal and spatial data. Nitrate sensors have the capability for making accurate, high-frequency measurements of nitrate in situ, but have not yet been evaluated for long-term use in groundwater wells. We measured in situ nitrate continuously in two groundwater monitoring wells —one rural and one urban—located in the recharge zone of a productive karst aquifer in central Texas in order to resolve changes that occur over both short-term (hourly to daily) and long-term (monthly to yearly) periods. Nitrate concentrations, measured as nitrate-nitrogen in milligrams per liter (mg/L), during drought conditions showed little or no temporal change as groundwater levels declined. During aquifer recharge, extremely rapid changes in concentration occurred at both wells as documented by hourly data. At both sites, nitrate concentrations were affected by recharging surface water as evidenced by nitrate concentrations in groundwater recharge (0.8–1.3 mg/L) that were similar to previously reported values for regional recharging streams. Groundwater nitrate concentrations responded differently at urban and rural sites during groundwater recharge. Concentrations at the rural well (approximately 1.0 mg/L) increased as a result of higher nitrate concentrations in groundwater recharge relative to ambient nitrate concentrations in groundwater, whereas concentrations at the urban well (approximately 2.7 mg/L) decreased as a result of the dilution of higher ambient nitrate concentrations relative to those in groundwater recharge. Notably, nitrate concentrations decreased to as low as 0.8 mg/L at the urban site during recharge but postrecharge concentrations exceeded 3.0 mg/L. A return to higher nitrate concentrations postrecharge indicates mobilization of a localized source of elevated nitrate within the urbanized area of the aquifer. Changes in specific conductance were observed at both sites during groundwater recharge, and a significant correlation between specific conductance and nitrate (correlation coefficient [R] = 0.455) was evident at the urban site where large (3-fold) changes in nitrate occurred. Nitrate concentrations and specific conductance measured during a depth profile indicated that the water column was generally homogeneous as expected for this karst environment, but changes were observed in the most productive zone of the aquifer that might indicate some heterogeneity within the complex network of flow paths. Resolving the timing and magnitude of changes and characterizing fine-scale vertical differences would not be possible using conventional sampling techniques. The patterns observed in situ provided new insight into the dynamic nature of nitrate in a karst groundwater system.

Texas↗
USGS2010

Interactions between walleyes and smallmouth bass in a Missouri River reservoir with consideration of the influence of temperature and prey

Walleyes Sander vitreus are the most popular fish among South Dakota anglers, but smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced to provide new angling opportunities. Some walleye anglers have reported reductions in the quality of walleye fisheries since the introduction of smallmouth bass and attribute this to the consumption of young walleyes by smallmouth bass and competition for shared prey resources. We quantified the diets of walleyes and smallmouth bass in the lower reaches of Lake Sharpe (a Missouri River reservoir), calculated the diet overlap between the two predators, and determined whether they partitioned shared prey based on size. We also quantified walleye diets in the upper reach of the reservoir, which has a different prey base and allowed us to compare the growth rates of walleyes within Lake Sharpe. Age-0 gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum composed a substantial proportion of the diets of both predators, regardless of location, for most of the growing season; the patterns in shad vulnerability appeared to drive the observed patterns in diet overlap. Smallmouth bass appeared to consume a smaller size range of gizzard shad than did walleyes, which consumed a wide range. Smallmouth bass consumed Sander spp. in some months, but in very low quantities. Given that global climate change is expected to alter the population and community dynamics in Great Plains reservoirs, we also used a bioenergetics approach to predict the potential effects of limiting prey availability (specifically, the absence of gizzard shad and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax ) and increased water temperatures (as projected from global climate change models) on walleye and smallmouth bass growth. The models indicated that the absence of rainbow smelt from the diets of walleyes in upper Lake Sharpe would reduce growth but that the absence of gizzard shad would have a more marked negative effect on both predators at both locations. The models also indicated that higher water temperatures would have an even greater negative influence on walleye growth; however, smallmouth bass growth was predicted to increase with higher temperatures. Fisheries managers should consider strategies to enhance the prey base or mitigate the effects of increased water temperatures that may occur in the future as a result of global climate change. Such proactive actions may alleviate potential future competition between walleyes and smallmouth bass resulting from changes in the fish community.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2020

Rapid peat development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests: Ecosystem changes across a 25-year chronosequence

Mangrove forests are among the world’s most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems. Despite growing understanding of factors controlling mangrove forest soil carbon stocks, there is a need to advance understanding of the speed of peat development beneath maturing mangrove forests— especially in created and restored mangrove forests that are intended to compensate for ecosystem functions lost during mangrove forest conversion to other land uses. To better quantify the rate of soil organic matter development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests, we measured ecosystem changes across a 25‐year chronosequence. We compared ecosystem properties in created, maturing mangrove forests to adjacent natural mangrove forests. We also quantified site‐specific changes that occurred between 2010 and 2016. Soil organic matter accumulated rapidly beneath maturing mangrove forests as sandy soils transitioned to organic‐rich soils (peat). Within 25 years, a 20‐cm deep peat layer developed. The time required for created mangrove forests to reach equivalency with natural mangrove forests was estimated as: (1) < 15 years for herbaceous and juvenile vegetation; (2) ~55 years for adult trees; (3) ~25 years for the upper soil layer (0‐10 cm); and (4) ~45‐80 years for the lower soil layer (10‐30 cm). For soil elevation change, the created mangrove forests were equivalent to or surpassed natural mangrove forests within the first five years. A comparison to chronosequence studies from other ecosystems indicates that the rate of soil organic matter accumulation beneath maturing mangrove forests may be among the fastest globally. In most peatland ecosystems, soil organic matter formation occurs slowly (centuries, millennia); however, these results show that mangrove peat formation can occur within decades. Peat development, primarily due to sub‐surface root accumulation, enables mangrove forests to sequester carbon, adjust their elevation relative to sea level, and adapt to changing conditions at the dynamic land‐ocean interface. In the face of climate change and rising sea levels, coastal managers are increasingly concerned with the longevity and functionality of coastal restoration efforts. Our results advance understanding of the pace of ecosystem development in created, maturing mangrove forests, which can improve predictions of mangrove forest responses to global change and ecosystem restoration.

Florida↗
USGS2021

Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2023

ENSO and NAO linkages to interannual salinity variability in north central Gulf of Mexico estuaries through teleconnections with precipitation

Though the importance of Earth's internal climate modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to regional-scale climate variability is well recognized, the degree to which these oscillations are reflected by spatio-temporal salinity variability over interannual timescales in estuaries is less understood. Here an 11-year continuous salinity monitoring dataset spanning 223 stations across Louisiana's coastal wetlands along the northern Gulf of Mexico is examined with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to identify dominant modes of interannual variability in the salinity field. The first EOF mode accounts for 72% of the variance in the salinity field and captures a domain-wide pattern where salinities vary in-phase through space in response to local precipitation anomalies occurring in the vicinity of the study area. This local precipitation anomaly is positively correlated with ENSO (Nino3.4 index), consistent with the El Niño – wet (La Niña – dry) precipitation teleconnection that is prevalent throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The second EOF mode, which accounts for 13% of the variance in the salinity field, is expressed primarily in the marshes across the lower reaches of the Mississippi River deltaic plain (MRDP). EOF2 is anticorrelated with annual Mississippi River discharge anomaly such that salinities in the lower MRDP decrease as discharge increases, pointing to enhanced advection of fresh river plume waters over the shelf into the estuary via estuary-ocean exchange during years of anomalously high river discharge. Mississippi River discharge anomaly is positively correlated with the NAO at a one-year time lag, through a teleconnection with precipitation throughout much of the central region of the Mississippi River drainage basin. Together, these findings indicate that most of the interannual salinity variability across Louisiana's coastal wetlands can be linked to climate variability through teleconnections with precipitation. Incorporating these dynamics into restoration planning, monitoring, and adaptive management efforts may help constrain background environmental variation and better isolate restoration effects.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

Hydrological control on soil redox condition and carbon loss of coastal wetland under sea-kevel rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO 2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Louisiana↗
USGS2023

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Washington's economy

Washington State has a geographically diverse and spectacular landscape that is divided to the east and west by the largely volcanic mountains of the Cascade Range. Approximately 88 percent of the population lives in western Washington, mostly in urban areas. The climate is varied, with high precipitation and seasonal flooding in the western part of the State, while drier conditions are found east of the Cascades. Where the terrain is mountainous, the dominant vegetation is coniferous forests, which are prone to frequent seasonal fires. The climate and land use in combination with a dynamic geology result in frequent landslides. Washington has the second highest risk, after California, of large and damaging earthquakes because of its geologic setting. Critical applications that meet the State’s management needs depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features.

Washington↗