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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Global patterns of coseismic landslide runout mobility differ from aseismic landslide trends

Coseismic landslides significantly contribute to human and economic losses during and immediately following earthquakes, yet very little data on the runout of such landslides exist. While well-established behavior of aseismic (e.g., hydrologically triggered) landslide runout mobility suggests strong correlation between landslide size and mobility, limited studies of coseismic landslide runout find conflicting mobility trends. We present a global dataset of runout lengths produced from a new automated method for estimating landslide runout, developed and validated using 1726 manually mapped landslides from five unique earthquakes. We then apply the automated runout tool to 23 global earthquake-induced landslide inventories, producing a compiled database of 73,665 measured and estimated runout lengths of coseismic landslides to assess mobility trends. We find a significant divergence between well-established aseismic mobility trends and that of coseismic landslides, with far greater scatter and more complex mobility patterns in earthquake-triggered landslides. As a function of landslide size, we observe global coseismic landslide mobility patterns are bilinear, becoming increasingly less mobile with increasing size above some threshold. This discordance between aseismic and coseismic landslide mobility may be a function of landslide type, kinematics, hydrology, and or setting that systematically differ between triggering mechanisms and should be explored in more depth to develop predictive models of these unique runout patterns. These results suggest hazard and risk models for coseismic landslides may significantly under-predict or over-predict impacts, depending on the size of triggered landslides.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2012

Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002-2008

Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002-2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002-2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2013

Trends in the suspended-sediment yields of coastal rivers of northern California, 1955–2010

Time-dependencies of suspended-sediment discharge from six coastal watersheds of northern California – Smith River, Klamath River, Trinity River, Redwood Creek, Mad River, and Eel River – were evaluated using monitoring data from 1955 to 2010. Suspended-sediment concentrations revealed time-dependent hysteresis and multi-year trends. The multi-year trends had two primary patterns relative to river discharge: (i) increases in concentration resulting from both land clearing from logging and the flood of record during December 1964 (water year 1965), and (ii) continual decreases in concentration during the decades following this flood. Data from the Eel River revealed that changes in suspended-sediment concentrations occurred for all grain-size fractions, but were most pronounced for the sand fraction. Because of these changes, the use of bulk discharge-concentration relationships (i.e., “sediment rating curves”) without time-dependencies in these relationships resulted in substantial errors in sediment load estimates, including 2.5-fold over-prediction of Eel River sediment loads since 1979. We conclude that sediment discharge and sediment discharge relationships (such as sediment rating curves) from these coastal rivers have varied substantially with time in response to land use and climate. Thus, the use of historical river sediment data and sediment rating curves without considerations for time-dependent trends may result in significant errors in sediment yield estimates from the globally-important steep, small watersheds.

California↗

USGS2016

A partial exponential lumped parameter model to evaluate groundwater age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened wells

A partial exponential lumped parameter model (PEM) was derived to determine age distributions and nitrate trends in long-screened production wells. The PEM can simulate age distributions for wells screened over any finite interval of an aquifer that has an exponential distribution of age with depth. The PEM has 3 parameters – the ratio of saturated thickness to the top and bottom of the screen and mean age, but these can be reduced to 1 parameter (mean age) by using well construction information and estimates of the saturated thickness. The PEM was tested with data from 30 production wells in a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer in California, USA. Well construction data were used to guide parameterization of a PEM for each well and mean age was calibrated to measured environmental tracer data ( 3 H, 3 He, CFC-113, and 14 C). Results were compared to age distributions generated for individual wells using advective particle tracking models (PTMs). Age distributions from PTMs were more complex than PEM distributions, but PEMs provided better fits to tracer data, partly because the PTMs did not simulate 14 C accurately in wells that captured varying amounts of old groundwater recharged at lower rates prior to groundwater development and irrigation. Nitrate trends were simulated independently of the calibration process and the PEM provided good fits for at least 11 of 24 wells. This work shows that the PEM, and lumped parameter models (LPMs) in general, can often identify critical features of the age distributions in wells that are needed to explain observed tracer data and nonpoint source contaminant trends, even in systems where aquifer heterogeneity and water-use complicate distributions of age. While accurate PTMs are preferable for understanding and predicting aquifer-scale responses to water use and contaminant transport, LPMs can be sensitive to local conditions near individual wells that may be inaccurately represented or missing in an aquifer-scale flow model.

California↗

USGS2021

Improving ChemCam LIBS long-distance elemental compositions using empirical abundance trends

The ChemCam instrument on the Curiosity rover provides chemical compositions of Martian rocks and soils using remote laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The elemental calibration is stable as a function of distance for Ti, Fe, Mg, and Ca. The calibration shows small, systematically increasing abundance trends as a function of distance for Al, Na, K, and to some extent, Si. The distance effect is known to be due to a dependence with distance on the relative strengths of atomic transition lines. Emission lines representing transitions from relatively low energy levels remain intense at longer distances while emission lines representing transitions from higher energy levels decrease in intensity more rapidly as a function of distance. The multivariate algorithms used to determine elemental compositions rely on a large number of emission lines in many cases, so rather than trying to correct all emission lines, a study was made of the predicted compositions as a function of distance, in order to determine an empirical correction. Abundance trends can be well approximated by a linear trend with distance within the ranges of abundances and distances observed up to ~6 m. Data from 11 distinct geological members and data groups of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, were used to form the model, selecting the members and data groups yielding the best statistics. The model was tested using data from several targets observed from two different distances, and using data from the Kimberley formation, the composition of which is significantly different from the Murray formation, showing that the model works on other compositions beyond those used to build the model. For long-distance observations up to ~6 m, corrections can be made back to an equivalent composition at the median distance of ChemCam observations (2.6 m). The model has been validated up to 6.2 m, although ChemCam is able to observe bedrock targets to >7 m, and iron meteorites to distances of >9 m.

Spectrochimica Acta Part B: Atomic Spectroscopy↗

USGS2019

Recent trends in nutrient and sediment loading to coastal areas of the conterminous U.S.: Insights and global context

Coastal areas in the U.S. and worldwide have experienced massive population and land use changes contributing to significant degradation of coastal ecosystems. Excess nutrient pollution causes coastal ecosystem degradation, and both regulatory and management efforts have targeted reducing nutrient and sediment loading to coastal rivers. Decadal trends in flow-normalized nutrient and sediment loads were determined for 95 monitoring locations on 88 U.S. coastal rivers, including tributaries of the Great Lakes, between 2002 and 2012 for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sediment. N and P loading from urban watersheds generally decreased between 2002 and 2012. In contrast, N and P trends in agricultural watersheds were variable indicating uneven progress in decreasing nutrient loading. Coherent decreases in N loading from agricultural watersheds occurred in the Lake Erie basin, but limited benefit is expected from these changes because P is the primary driver of degradation in the lake. Nutrient loading from undeveloped watersheds was low, but increased between 2002 and 2012, possibly indicating degradation of coastal watersheds with a lower intensity of anthropogenic influence. Regional differences in trends were evident, with stable nutrient loads from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico, but commonly decreasing N loads and increasing P loads in Chesapeake Bay. Compared to global rivers, coastal rivers of the conterminous U.S have somewhat lower TN yields and slightly higher TP yields, but similarities exist among land use, nutrient sources, and changes in nutrient loads. Despite widespread decreases in N loading in coastal watersheds, recent N:P ratios remained elevated compared to historic values in many areas. Additional progress in reducing N and P loading to U.S. coastal waters, particularly outside of urban areas, would benefit coastal ecosystems.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2022

Post-fire temporal trends in soil-physical and -hydraulic properties and simulated runoff generation: Insights from different burn severities in the 2013 Black Forest Fire, CO, USA

Burn severity influences on post-fire recovery of soil-hydraulic properties controlling runoff generation are poorly understood despite the importance for parameterizing infiltration models. We measured soil-hydraulic properties of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs), sorptivity (S), and wetting front potential (ψf) for four years after the 2013 Black Forest Fire, Colorado, USA at six sites across a gradient of initial remotely sensed burn severity using the change in the normalized burn ratio (dNBR). These measurements were correlated with soil-physical property measurements of bulk density (ρb), loss on ignition (LOI, a measure of soil organic matter), and ground cover composition to provide insight into causal factors for temporal changes in Kfs, S, and ψf . Modeled infiltration using the Smith-Parlange approach parameterized with measured Kfs, S, and ψf further discerned the role of precipitation intensity on runoff generation. Temporal trends of soil-physical properties and ground cover showed influences from initial burn severity. Trends in soil-hydraulic properties , surprisingly, were not strongly influenced by initial burn severity despite inferred effects of ρb, LOI, and ground cover on trends in Kfs and S. Calculations of dNBR at the time of sampling showed strong correlations with Kfs and S, demonstrating a new approach for estimating long-unburned Kfs and S values, infiltration model parameters after fire, and assessing the time of return to pre-fire values. Simulated infiltration-excess runoff, in contrast, did depend on initial burn severity. Time series of the ratio S2/Kfs ≈ ψf tended to converge between 1 to 10 mm four years after wildfire, potentially (i) defining a long-unburned forest domain of S2/Kfs and ψf from 1 to 10 mm with relatively high Kfs values, and (ii) providing a new post-fire soil-hydraulic property recovery metric (i.e. S2/Kfs ≈ ψf in the range of 1 to 10 mm) for sites in the Rocky Mountains of the USA.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Trends and population estimate of the threatened Buff-breasted Sandpiper Calidris subruficollis wintering in coastal grasslands of southern Brazil

Information about population sizes, trends, and habitat use is key for species conservation and management. The Buff-breasted Sandpiper Calidris subruficollis (BBSA) is a long-distance migratory shorebird that breeds in the Arctic and migrates to south-eastern South America, wintering in the grasslands of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina. Most studies of Nearctic migratory species occur in the Northern Hemisphere, but monitoring these species at non-breeding areas is crucial for conservation during this phase of the annual cycle. Our first objective was to estimate trends of BBSA at four key areas in southern Brazil during the non-breeding season. We surveyed for BBSA and measured vegetation height in most years from 2008/09 to 2019/20. We used hierarchical distance sampling models in which BBSA abundance and density were modelled as a function of vegetation height and corrected for detectability. Next, we used on-the-ground surveys combined with satellite imagery and habitat classification models to estimate BBSA population size in 2019/20 at two major non-breeding areas. We found that abundance and density were negatively affected by increasing vegetation height. Abundance fluctuated five- to eight-fold over the study period, with peaks in the middle of the study (2014/15). We estimated the BBSA wintering population size as 1,201 (95% credible interval [CI]: 637–1,946) birds in Torotama Island and 2,232 (95% CI: 1,199–3,584) in Lagoa do Peixe National Park during the 2019/20 austral summer. Although no pronounced trend was detected, BBSA abundance fluctuated greatly from year to year. Our results demonstrate that only two of the four key areas hold high densities of BBSA and highlight the positive effect of short grass on BBSA numbers. Short-grass coastal habitats used by BBSA are strongly influenced by livestock grazing and climate, and are expected to shrink in size with future development and climatic changes.

Bird Conservation International↗

USGS2004

Contaminant trends in reservoir sediment cores as records of influent stream quality

When reconstructing water-quality histories from lake and reservoir cores, it is sometimes assumed that the chemical signatures in the cores reflect historical water quality in the influent streams. To investigate this assumption, concentrations of metals, PAHs, and organochlorine compounds in sediment cores were compared to those associated with an influent-stream suspended sediment for three reservoirs in Fort Worth, TX, and two reservoirs in Boston, MA, U.S.A., and interpreted in light of land-use and regulation histories. In evaluating relations between suspended sediments and cores, three levels of preservation were indicated: (1) influent concentrations and historical trends are preserved in cores (metals at all sites; some organic contaminants at some sites); (2) some loss occurs during transport and initial deposition but relative historical trends are preserved in cores (some organic contaminants at some sites); and (3) neither stream concentrations nor relative historical trends are preserved (dieldrin and p,p???-DDT). The degree of preservation of influent concentration histories varied between lakes, particularly for PAHs. The results support the use of sediment cores to infer streamwater-quality histories for many contaminants but indicate that reservoir-bottom sediment samples might underestimate concentrations of organic contaminants in some streams.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS1999

Streamflow trends in the United States

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0 th to the 100 th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q 0 ) to median (Q 50 ) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q 100 ) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q 100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1999

Long‐term trends in stream water and precipitation chemistry at five headwater basins in the northeastern United States

Stream water data from five headwater basins in the northeastern United States covering water years 1968–1996 and precipitation data from eight nearby precipitation monitoring sites covering water years 1984‐1996 were analyzed for temporal trends in chemistry using the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Concentrations of SO 4 declined at three of five streams during 1968–1996 ( p < 0.1), and all of the streams exhibited downward trends in SO 4 over the second half of the period (1984–1996). Concentrations of SO 4 in precipitation declined at seven of eight sites from 1984 to 1996, and the magnitudes of the declines (−0.7 to −2.0 µeq L −1 yr −1 ) generally were similar to those of stream water SO 4 . These results indicate that changes in precipitation SO 4 were of sufficient magnitude to account for changes in stream water SO 4 . Concentrations of Ca + Mg declined at three of five streams and five of eight precipitation sites from 1984 to 1996. Precipitation acidity decreased at five of eight sites during the same period, but alkalinity increased in only one stream. In most cases the decreases in stream water SO 4 were similar in magnitude to declines in stream water Ca + Mg, which is consistent with the theory of leaching by mobile acid anions in soils. In precipitation the magnitudes of SO 4 declines were similar to those of hydrogen, and declines in Ca +Mg were much smaller. This indicates that recent decreases in SO 4 deposition are now being reflected in reduced precipitation acidity. The lack of widespread increases in stream water alkalinity, despite the prevalence of downward trends in stream water SO 4 , suggests that at most sites, increases in stream water p H and acid‐neutralizing capacity may be delayed until higher soil base‐saturation levels are achieved.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2008

Compositional trends in aeolian dust along a transect across the southwestern United States

Aeolian dust strongly influences ecology and landscape geochemistry over large areas that span several desert ecosystems of the southwestern United States. This study evaluates spatial and temporal variations and trends of the physical and chemical properties of dust in the southwestern United States by examining dust deposited in natural depressions on high isolated surfaces along a transect from the Mojave Desert to the central Colorado Plateau. Aeolian dust is recognized in these depressions on the basis of textural, chemical, isotopic, and mineralogical characteristics and comparisons of those characteristics to the underlying bedrock units. Spatial and temporal trends suggest that although local dust sources are important to the accumulated material in these depressions, Mojave Desert dust sources may also contribute. Depth trends in the depressions suggest that Mojave sources may have contributed more dust to the Colorado Plateau recently than in the past. These interpretations point to the important roles of far-traveled aeolian dust for landscape geochemistry and imply future changes to soil geochemistry under changing conditions in far-distant dust source areas. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2009

Use of models and observations to assess trends in the 1950–2005 water balance and climate of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

A 1‐dimensional surface energy balance model is applied to produce continuous simulations of daily lake evaporation of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon (UKL) for the period 1950–2005. The model is implemented using observed data from land‐based sites and rafts collected during 2005–2006. Progressively longer, temporally overlapping simulations are produced using observed forcing data sets from sites near UKL. Simulation of the entire 56 years is accomplished using forcing data derived from weather station data and a 1949–2007 regional climate simulation over western North America. Simulated mean annual evaporation for 1950–2005 is 1073 mm. The simulated evaporation estimates are an improvement over existing May–September pan‐derived estimates because the latter are not representative of annual evaporation rates and do not span the multidecadal period of interest over which climate‐driven interannual (and longer) variability is evident. Evaporation and the other components of the water balance display statistically significant trends over the past 56 years that are associated with changes in meteorological forcing over the lake and the radiative and moisture balances at higher elevations of the catchment. Trends in the basin are consistent with and imbedded in regional and hemispheric climate trends that have occurred over the last century.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

The occurrence of large floods in the United States in the modern hydroclimate regime: Seasonality, trends, and large-scale climate associations

Many studies investigate river floods by analyzing annual maximum series that record the largest flow of each year, including many within-bank events inconsequential for human communities. Fewer focus on larger floods, especially at the continental scale. Using 473 streamgages across the conterminous United States with near-natural flow from 1966 to 2015, we characterized the seasonality, occurrence, and climatic associations of the 10 largest and 2 largest floods at each site. These are often overbank events that have ecosystem functions and pose risks to humans. We grouped sites into 14 clusters corresponding to climatic and physiographic regions and characterized their flood seasonality at a monthly resolution using a probabilistic method. We then evaluated annual occurrence regionally and nationally, and seasonal occurrence regionally, by complementing a traditional approach to trend analyses with a novel method based on expected occurrence. Relationships between flood occurrence and climate indices were also investigated. Large floods have strong seasonality in some regions, but in areas with numerous flood-generating mechanisms, seasonality is more complex. There is little evidence nationally that large riverine floods are more or less frequent than expected in recent years and only two regions show significant trends in annual counts; few show seasonal trends. We found some regional relationships between flood counts and climate indices, annually and seasonally; nationally the Pacific North American pattern is related to annual counts of the 2 largest floods. Large-flood occurrence was generally stable across the United States in the last five decades; this may or may not continue with projected warming.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1995

Spatial trends in Pearson Type III statistical parameters

Spatial trends in the statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient) of a Pearson Type III distribution of the logarithms of annual flood peaks for small rural basins (less than 90 km2) are delineated using a climate factor CT, (T=2-, 25-, and 100-yr recurrence intervals), which quantifies the effects of long-term climatic data (rainfall and pan evaporation) on observed T-yr floods. Maps showing trends in average parameter values demonstrate the geographically varying influence of climate on the magnitude of Pearson Type III statistical parameters. The spatial trends in variability of the parameter values characterize the sensitivity of statistical parameters to the interaction of basin-runoff characteristics (hydrology) and climate. -from Authors

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

USGS2016

1984–2010 trends in fire burn severity and area for the conterminous US

Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were evaluated within 27 US National Vegetation Classification macrogroups. Time series assessments of burned area and severity were performed using Mann–Kendall tests. Burned area and severity varied by vegetation classification, but most vegetation groups showed no detectable change during the 1984–2010 period. Of the 27 analysed vegetation groups, trend analysis revealed burned area increased in eight, and burn severity has increased in seven. This study suggests that burned area and severity, as measured by the severity metric based on dNBR or RdNBR, have not changed substantially for most vegetation groups evaluated within CONUS.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

USGS2018

Population trends in Vermivora warblers are linked to strong migratory connectivity

Migratory species can experience limiting factors at different locations and during different periods of their annual cycle. In migratory birds, these factors may even occur in different hemispheres. Therefore, identifying the distribution of populations throughout their annual cycle (i.e., migratory connectivity) can reveal the complex ecological and evolutionary relationships that link species and ecosystems across the globe and illuminate where and how limiting factors influence population trends. A growing body of literature continues to identify species that exhibit weak connectivity wherein individuals from distinct breeding areas co-occur during the nonbreeding period. A detailed account of a broadly distributed species exhibiting strong migratory connectivity in which nonbreeding isolation of populations is associated with differential population trends remains undescribed. Here, we present a range-wide assessment of the nonbreeding distribution and migratory connectivity of two broadly dispersed Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds. We used geolocators to track the movements of 70 Vermivora warblers from sites spanning their breeding distribution in eastern North America and identified links between breeding populations and nonbreeding areas. Unlike blue-winged warblers ( Vermivora cyanoptera ), breeding populations of golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) exhibited strong migratory connectivity, which was associated with historical trends in breeding populations: stable for populations that winter in Central America and declining for those that winter in northern South America.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2019

Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

Accurate estimators of streamflow statistics are critical to the design, planning, and management of water resources. Given increasing evidence of trends in low-streamflow, new approaches to estimating low-streamflow statistics are needed. Here we investigate simple approaches to select a recent subset of the low-flow record to update the commonly used statistic of 7 Q 10, the annual minimum 7-day streamflow exceeded in 9 out of 10 years on average. Informed by low-streamflow records at 174 US Geological Survey streamgages, Monte Carlo simulation experiments evaluate competing approaches. We find that a strategy which estimates 7 Q 10 using the most recent 30 years of record when a trend is detected, reduces error and bias in 7 Q 10 estimators compared to use of the full record. This simple rule-based approach has potential as the basis for a framework for updating frequency-based statistics in the context of possible trends.

Hydrologic Sciences Journal↗