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Benefits of protective fencing to plant and rodent communities of the western Mojave Desert, California

Human disturbance in the western Mojave Desert takes many forms. The most pervasive are livestock grazing and off-highway vehicle use. Over the past few decades several areas within this region have been fenced to preclude human disturbance. These areas provide opportunities to study the impact of human activities in a desert ecosystem. This paper documents the response of plant and small mammal populations to fencing constructed between 1978 and 1979 at the Desert Tortoise Research Natural Area, Kern County, California. Aboveground live annual plant biomass was generally greater inside than outside the fenced plots during April 1990, 1991, and 1992. The alien grass Schismus barbatus was a notable exception, producing more biomass in the unprotected area. Forb biomass was greater than that of alien annual grasses inside the fence during all three years of the study. Outside the fence, forb biomass was significantly higher than that of alien grasses only during spring 1992. Percent cover of perennial shrubs was higher inside the fence than outside, while no significant trend was detected in density. There was als more seed biomass inside the fence; this may have contributed to the greater diversity and density of Merriam's kangaroo rats ( Dipodomys merriami ), long-tailed pocket mice ( Chaetodipus formosus ), and southern grasshopper mice ( Onychomys torridus ) in the protected area. These results show that protection from human disturbance has many benefits, including greater overall community biomass and diversity. The significance and generality of these results can be further tested by studying other exclosures of varying age and configurations in different desert regions of the southwestern United States.

California

A synthesis of patterns of environmental mercury inputs, exposure and effects in New York State

Mercury (Hg) pollution is an environmental problem that adversely affects human and ecosystem health at local, regional, and global scales—including within New York State. More than two-thirds of the Hg currently released to the environment originates, either directly or indirectly, from human activities. Since the early 1800s, global atmospheric Hg concentrations have increased by three- to eight-fold over natural levels. In the U.S., atmospheric emissions and point-source releases to waterways increased following industrialization into the mid-1980s. Since then, water discharges have largely been curtailed. As a result, Hg emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and deposition over the past few decades have declined across the eastern U.S. Despite these decreases, Hg pollution persists. To inform policy efforts and to advance public understanding, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) sponsored a scientific synthesis of information on Hg in New York State. This effort includes 23 papers focused on Hg in atmospheric deposition, water, fish, and wildlife published in Ecotoxicology . New York State experiences Hg contamination largely due to atmospheric deposition. Some landscapes are inherently sensitive to Hg inputs driven by the transport of inorganic Hg to zones of methylation, the conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, and the bioaccumulation and biomagnification along food webs. Mercury concentrations exceed human and ecological risk thresholds in many areas of New York State, particularly the Adirondacks, Catskills, and parts of Long Island. Mercury concentrations in some biota have declined in the Eastern Great Lakes Lowlands and the Northeastern Highlands over the last four decades, concurrent with decreases in water releases and air emissions from regional and U.S. sources. However, widespread changes have not occurred in other ecoregions of New York State. While the timing and magnitude of the response of Hg levels in biota varies, policies expected to further diminish Hg emissions should continue to decrease Hg concentrations in food webs, yielding benefits to the fish, wildlife, and people of New York State. Anticipated improvements in the Hg status of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be greatest for inland surface waters and should be roughly proportional to declines in atmospheric Hg deposition. Efforts that advance recovery from Hg pollution in recent years have yielded significant progress, but Hg remains a pollutant of concern. Indeed, due to this extensive compilation of Hg observations in biota, it appears that the extent and intensity of the contamination on the New York landscape and waterscape is greater than previously recognized. Understanding the extent of Hg contamination and recovery following decreases in atmospheric Hg deposition will require further study, underscoring the need to continue existing monitoring efforts.

New York

Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, and value of information) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

Epidemics

60 years and beyond of Reviews of Geophysics

Reviews of Geophysics is an AGU journal, first established in February 1963. It is a hybrid open access invitation-only journal that publishes comprehensive review articles across various disciplines within the Earth and Space Sciences. The selection criteria are rigorous and many submissions are declined without review. The journal is the highest ranked in the fields of Geochemistry and Geophysics, with a high Journal Impact Factor (JIF 2021 = 24.9), which is indicative of its high visibility and influence within the scientific community. The journal's published review papers, beyond a mere summary of literature, provide crucial context for current work, and establish the framework for comprehensive understanding of research progress, challenges, and interconnections between different communities, so that research may be appreciated by a broad audience. We emphasize the importance of publishing studies that provide a comprehensive overview and synthesis of the current state of knowledge in a field, especially in the case of geophysics, where knowledge is rapidly developing, increasing and becoming more specialized.

Reviews of Geophysics

Structural engineering research at the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the lead federal agency of the National Earthquake Hazards Research Program (NEHRP) to conduct research related to earth sciences. Therefore, whether it is research on structures or other civil engineering disciplines, the subject matter of such research at USGS must meet NEHRP objectives. The most recent charges for USGS are outlined in the Draft of the NEHRP Strategic Plan (August 2000) which details several research issues on the effects of ground motions on built environment.

Conference Paper

Fire effects on aquatic ecosystems: An assessment of the current state of the science

Fire is a prevalent feature of many landscapes and has numerous and complex effects on geological, hydrological, ecological, and economic systems. In some regions, the frequency and intensity of wildfire have increased in recent years and are projected to escalate with predicted climatic and landuse changes. In addition, prescribed burns continue to be used in many parts of the world to clear vegetation for development projects, encourage desired vegetation, and reduce fuel loads. Given the prevalence of fire on the landscape, authors of papers in this special series examine the complexities of fire as a disturbance shaping freshwater ecosystems and highlight the state of the science. These papers cover key aspects of fire effects that range from vegetation loss and recovery in watersheds to effects on hydrology and water quality with consequences for communities (from algae to fish), food webs, and ecosystem processes (e.g., organic matter subsidies, nutrient cycling) across a range of scales. The results presented in this special series of articles expand our knowledge of fire effects in different biomes, water bodies, and geographic regions, encompassing aquatic population, community, and ecosystem responses. In this overview, we summarize each paper and emphasize its contributions to knowledge on fire ecology and freshwater ecosystems. This overview concludes with a list of 7 research foci that are needed to further our knowledge of fire effects on aquatic ecosystems, including research on: 1) additional biomes and geographic regions; 2) additional habitats, including wetlands and lacustrine ecosystems; 3) different fire severities, sizes, and spatial configurations; and 4) additional response variables (e.g., ecosystem processes) 5) over long (>5 y) time scales 6) with more rigorous study designs and data analyses, and 7) consideration of the effects of fire management practices and policies on aquatic ecosystems.

Freshwater Science

Incorporating teleseismic tomography data into models of upper mantle slab geometry

Earthquake-based models of slab geometry are limited by the distribution of earthquakes within a subducting slab, which is often heterogeneous. The fast seismic velocity signature of slabs in tomography studies is independent of the distribution of earthquakes within the slab, providing a critical constraint on slab geometry when earthquakes are absent. In order to utilize this constraint, researchers typically hand-contour images of subducting slabs in tomography models, leading to a subjective final slab model. With this paper, we present an automated procedure for extracting slab geometry from teleseismic tomography volumes that limits this subjectivity and provides constraints on the structure of aseismic segments of slabs. This procedure is designed as a complement to earthquake-based slab models rather than as a replacement, which can help to broaden the extent of existing subduction zone geometry databases.

Geophysical Journal International

Twenty-First Annual report of the Director of the United States Geological Survey, 1899-1900: Part VII - Texas

Area treated. —The Black and Grand prairies of Texas and southern Indian Territory comprise about 50,000 square miles (see Pl. LXV, in pocket)—an area equal to that of fifty of the quadrangles mapped and described by the United States Geological Survey in its Geologic Atlas of the United States. The accompanying general geologic map (Pl. LXVI, in pocket) is a condensed presentation of the geology usually shown on that number of atlas sheets as published in folio form. Most of these quadrangles have been studied by the writer and his former assistants. Sources of data. —An entirely satisfactory presentation of these results is still impossible by reason of the lack of adequate maps. The topographic maps of the United States Geological Survey, which cover 24 of the 50 units of area, were made in the earlier years of the Survey and with a contour interval insufficient for the expression of the geology. For the remaining portion of the area it was necessary to use as a base the Land Office maps of the State of Texas. The conclusions herein presented, often condensed in a short paragraph, are founded upon a large amount of paleontologic, stratigraphic, and topographic data. The results, so far as they refer to the Black and Grand prairies, are the outcome of studies made by the writer since 1882, sometimes independently, sometimes with the assistance of the United States Geological Survey, and during two years in connection with the Texas Geological Survey. In times past he has been assisted in this work by his former students, C. C. McCulloch, now captain, U. S. A.; Messrs. Wilson T. Davidson and L. T. Dashiel; Mr. Joseph A. Taff, now of the United States Geological Survey; Dr. J. W. Stone, Mr. N. F. Drake, and Mr. G. H. Ragsdale. Inasmuch as the details which these gentlemem worked out were problems of the writer's suggestion, he has incorporated them into this paper, and here acknowledges indebtedness therefor. Upon the writer's retirement from the Texas Survey, Mr. Taff continued the work of mapping the region. He published two reports, which have been freely used and which have been of great assistance in the preparation of this paper. Importance of paleontology. —In addition to the collection of the data which appear in the text and illustrations, much paleontologic research has been necessary in order to classify the formations. Paleontology is the most reliable guide in determining the position of any bed in the geologic series with a view to ascertaining the depth, from any particular portion of the surface, of the underground waters in the Cretaceous regions of Texas. If a few species of fossils, such as can be found in any locality, be sent to one familiar with the sequence of the beds, he can predict within a few feet the depth below the surface of any particular water-bearing stratum in the series. It was a labor of years to disentangle the preexisting confusion concerning the occurrence and succession of these fossils and their bearings upon the determination and definition of the strata. Their further consideration has been left to Mr. T. W. Stanton, who, it is presumed, will make final publication of the descriptions and the scientific results. This is not a final and complete report. Detailed field work is desirable in many localities. Chemical analyses of water and illustrations of typical scenery should be more complete, but these were not obtainable with the means and time at the writer's disposal. When appreciation of geologic investigation shall have been awakened in Texas and the region under discussion shall have been studied more closely by resident students, in the manner now common in other parts of the United States, the data here presented will be largely increased and refined, and the conclusions will doubtless be correspondingly amended and rectified.

Texas

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data

Overview on the effects of parasites on fish health

It is believed by many that parasites are only as important as the fish they infect. Parasites are ubiquitous, primarily surviving in a dynamic equilibrium with their host(s) and they are often overlooked in fish health assessments. Changes in the environment, both anthropogenic and environmental, can alter the parasite/host equilibrium and cause disease or mortality in fish. Therefore it is imperative that we have knowledge of both parasites and parasitic communities within a given population. When fish kills occur, it can often be associated with changes in parasite density and community composition. Often the damage associated with these fish is relative to the rate of infestation with the parasite; a fish that is lightly infected will show few signs of the parasite, while a heavily infected fish may become physiologically impaired and even die. Parasites can cause mechanical damage (fusion of gill lamellae, tissue replacement), physiological damage (cell proliferation, immunomodulation, detrimental behavioral responses, altered growth) and reproductive damage. As parasitism is the most common lifestyle on the planet, understanding its role in the environment may help researchers understand changes in a given fish population or stream ecosystem.

Conference Paper

A proposed international watershed research network

An “International Watershed Research Network” is to be an initial project of the Sino-U. S. Centers for Soil and Water Conservation and Environmental Protection. The Network will provide a fundamental database for research personnel of the Centers, as well as of the global research community, and is viewed as an important resource for their successful operation. Efforts are under way to (a) identify and select candidate watersheds, (b) develop standards and protocols for data collection and dissemination, and (c) specify other data sources on erosion, sediment transport, hydrology, and ancillary information of probable interest and use to participants of the Centers. The initial focus of the Network will be on water-deficient areas. Candidate watersheds for the Network are yet to be determined although likely selections include the Ansai Research Station, northern China, and the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona, USA. The Network is to be patterned after the Vigil Network, an open-ended group of global sites and small drainage basins for which Internet-accessible geomorphic, hydrologic, and biological data are periodically collected or updated. Some types of data, using similar instruments and observation methods, will be collected at all watersheds selected for the Network. Other data from the watersheds that may reflect individual watershed characteristics and research objectives will be collected as well.

Conference Paper

Science needs for continued development of total nitrogen deposition budgets in the United States

The objectives of this white paper are to describe the state of the science with respect to total Nr deposition budgets in North America and the research needed to improve these budgets from both a measurement and modeling standpoint. The document is intended to serve as a plan for TDep research activities but also, more broadly, to provide program managers, natural resource managers, policy makers and scientists with an understanding of the need for complete and accurate Nr deposition budgets to protect ecosystem health and human welfare, and the linkages between the underlying policy-relevant science questions and the specific knowledge and data gaps needed to improve Nr deposition budgets.

Report

Critical minerals in Climax-type magmatic-hydrothermal systems

Today’s global economy is challenged to meet the growing demand for commodities used in existing and emerging advanced technologies. Critical minerals are commodities found in a wide variety of ore deposits that are vital to the economic or national security of individual nations that are vulnerable to supply disruption. The U.S. Geological Survey is striving to advance understanding of critical mineral resources by employing a Mineral Systems approach. Climax-type systems are one of 17 mineral systems currently under investigation. The aim of this work is to inventory and assess knowledge gaps on the abundance of 50 critical minerals in Climax-type systems. Here we synthesize geochemical data from ore concentrates, ore, waste, and minerals together with information on production from, and resources in, ore deposits. The goal of this work is to estimate the amount of critical minerals present in processed mine waste and unmined resources, discuss those that could potentially be recovered in the future, and identify important future areas of research.

Conference Paper

Ten quick tips to get you started with Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics is a framework in which our knowledge about unknown quantities of interest (especially parameters) is updated with the information in observed data, though it can also be viewed as simply another method to fit a statistical model. It has become popular in many branches of biology. For context, five of the ten most cited papers in Web of Science with keywords 'Bayesian statistics' are related to biology (as of August 19, 2024). Bayesian statistics is particularly valuable for biology because it allows researchers to incorporate prior knowledge, handle complex systems, and work effectively with limited or messy data. However, most biologists are trained in frequentist techniques, and the learning curve to become fluent in Bayesian statistics may be perceived as too time-consuming to undertake, or the prospect of adopting an unfamiliar statistical framework can simply appear too daunting. We provide a list of 10 tips to help you get started with Bayesian statistics. You can also refer to the Glossary for definitions of the technical terms. This paper isn’t just for newcomers; even those with some experience in Bayesian methods may find it a useful roadmap to design, conduct, and publish Bayesian analyses. We’ve drawn mainly on our experience teaching and working with ecologists, but we hope these tips will be relevant to a broader audience of biologists. For those seeking to deepen their understanding, we point to more comprehensive resources that offer in-depth exploration of Bayesian statistics.

HAL Open Science

Earth observing data and methods for advancing water harvesting technologies in the semi-arid rain-fed environments of India

The paper develops approaches and methods of modeling and mapping land and water productivity of rain-fed crops in semi-arid environments of India using hyperspectral, hyperspatial, and advanced multispectral remote sensing data and linking the same to field-plot data and climate station data. The overarching goal is to provide information to advance water harvesting technologies in the agricultural croplands of the semi-arid environments of India by conducting research in a representative pilot site in Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India. ?? 2011 IEEE.

Conference Paper

Summary of recent research in Long Valley Caldera, California

Since 1978, volcanic unrest in the form of earthquakes and ground deformation has persisted in the Long Valley caldera and adjacent parts of the Sierra Nevada. The papers in this special volume focus on periods of accelerated seismicity and deformation in 1980, 1983, 1989-1990, and 1997-1998 to delineate relations between geologic, tectonic, and hydrologic processes. The results distinguish between earthquake sequences that result from relaxation of existing stress accumulation through brittle failure and those in which brittle failure is driven by active intrusion. They also indicate that in addition to a relatively shallow (7-10-km) source beneath the resurgent dome, there exists a deeper (???15-km) source beneath the south moat. Analysis of microgravimety and deformation data indicates that the composition of the shallower source may involve a combination of silicic magma and hydrothermal fluid. Pressure and temperature fluctuations in wells have accompanied periods of crustal unrest, and additional pressure and temperature changes accompanying ongoing geothermal power production have resulted in land subsidence. The completion in 1998 of a 3000-m-deep drill hole on the resurgent dome has provided useful information on present and past periods of circulation of water at temperatures of 100-200??C within the crystalline basement rocks that underlie the post-caldera volcanics. The well is now being converted to a permanent geophysical monitoring station. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research