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Review: The size of the risk: Histories of multiple use in the Great Basin by Leisl Carr Childers

In The Size of the Risk , Leisl Carr Childers chronicles the changing ways in which public lands of the Great Basin have been managed from the latter half of the nineteenth century through the late 1970s. The main focus is the State of Nevada, which constitutes the core of the Great Basin. Rather than proceeding chronologically, the book is organized by the uses to which lands were put, including grazing of cattle and sheep, weapons testing by the military, parks and recreation, and grazing of wild mustangs. Review info: The size of the risk: Histories of multiple use in the Great Basin . By Leisl Carr Childers, 2015. ISBN: 9780806152530, 320pp.

Pacific Historical Review

Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk

Seasonal habitat use of brook trout and juvenile Atlantic Salmon in a Tributary of Lake Ontario

The seasonal habitat use of Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) and sub-yearling Salmo salar (Atlantic Salmon) was examined in Hart Brook, a tributary of Lake Ontario. Fish habitat use and available habitat were examined during summer and autumn. Interspecific differences in habitat use occurred as well as intraspecific seasonal differences. Overyearling Brook Trout were more selective in their habitat preferences than subyearling Brook Trout or juvenile Atlantic Salmon. Depth and the amount of cover were significantly different among the three fish groups. Salmon occupied faster and shallower water than either age group of trout. Atlantic Salmon were also associated with larger-sized substrate materials than either trout age group, and salmon occurred in habitats with less cover than trout. Overyearling Brook Trout occupied deeper water with more cover than subyearling trout. All three salmonid groups occupied areas with more cover in autumn compared to summer. In autumn, subyearling Brook Trout used deeper areas than they had in the summer. In Hart Brook, the habitat of subyearling Atlantic Salmon can be generally characterized as riffles, the habitat of overyearling Brook Trout was deep pools with extensive cover (35%), and that of subyearling trout was any area with moderate flow and at least 20% cover. As efforts proceed to reintroduce Atlantic Salmon in Lake Ontario, further research is needed to ensure the conservation of Brook Trout populations.

New York

Observation of sandhill cranes' ( Grus canadensis ) flight behavior in heavy fog

The behaviors of birds flying in low visibility conditions remain poorly understood. We had the opportunity to monitor Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis) flying in heavy fog with very low visibility during a comprehensive landscape use study of refuging cranes in the Horicon Marsh in southeastern Wisconsin. As part of the study, we recorded flight patterns of cranes with a portable marine radar at various locations and times of day, and visually counted cranes as they departed the roost in the morning. We compared flight patterns during a fog event with those recorded during clear conditions. In good visibility, cranes usually departed the night roost shortly after sunrise and flew in relatively straight paths toward foraging areas. In fog, cranes departed the roost later in the day, did not venture far from the roost, engaged in significantly more circling flight, and returned to the roost site rather than proceeding to foraging areas. We also noted that compared to mornings with good visibility, cranes flying in fog called more frequently than usual. The only time in this 2-year study that observers heard young of the year calling was during the fog event. The observed behavior of cranes circling and lingering in an area while flying in poor visibility conditions suggests that such situations may increase chances of colliding with natural or anthropogenic obstacles in the vicinity.

Wisconsin

Rupture process of the M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake: Subevents, directivity, and scaling of high-frequency ground motions

Displacement waveforms and high-frequency acceleration envelopes from stations at distances of 3-300 km were inverted to determine the source process of the M 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. Fitting the initial portion of the displacement waveforms indicates that the earthquake started with an oblique thrust subevent (subevent # 1) with an east-west-striking, north-dipping nodal plane consistent with the observed surface rupture on the Susitna Glacier fault. Inversion of the remainder of the waveforms (0.02-0.5 Hz) for moment release along the Denali and Totschunda faults shows that rupture proceeded eastward on the Denali fault, with two strike-slip subevents (numbers 2 and 3) centered about 90 and 210 km east of the hypocenter. Subevent 2 was located across from the station at PS 10 (Trans-Alaska Pipeline Pump Station #10) and was very localized in space and time. Subevent 3 extended from 160 to 230 km east of the hypocenter and had the largest moment of the subevents. Based on the timing between subevent 2 and the east end of subevent 3, an average rupture velocity of 3.5 km/sec, close to the shear wave velocity at the average rupture depth, was found. However, the portion of the rupture 130-220 km east of the epicenter appears to have an effective rupture velocity of about 5.0 km/ sec, which is supershear. These two subevents correspond approximately to areas of large surface offsets observed after the earthquake. Using waveforms of the M 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake as empirical Green's functions, the high-frequency (1-10 Hz) envelopes of the M 7.9 earthquake were inverted to determine the location of high-frequency energy release along the faults. The initial thrust subevent produced the largest high-frequency energy release per unit fault length. The high-frequency envelopes and acceleration spectra (>0.5 Hz) of the M 7.9 earthquake can be simulated by chaining together rupture zones of the M 6.7 earthquake over distances from 30 to 180 km east of the hypocenter. However, the inversion indicates that there was relatively little high-frequency energy generated along the 60-km portion of the Totschunda fault on the east end of the rupture.

Alaska

Surface rupture and slip distribution of the Denali and Totschunda faults in the 3 November 2002 M 7.9 earthquake, Alaska

The 3 November 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake resulted in 341 km of surface rupture on the Susitna Glacier, Denali, and Totschunda faults. The rupture proceeded from west to east and began with a 48-km-long break on the previously unknown Susitna Glacier thrust fault. Slip on this thrust averaged about 4 m (Crone et al. , 2004) . Next came the principal surface break, along 226 km of the Denali fault, with average right-lateral offsets of 4.5–5.1 m and a maximum offset of 8.8 m near its eastern end. The Denali fault trace is commonly left stepping and north side up. About 99 km of the fault ruptured through glacier ice, where the trace orientation was commonly influenced by local ice fabric. Finally, slip transferred southeastward onto the Totschunda fault and continued for another 66 km where dextral offsets average 1.6–1.8 m. The transition from the Denali fault to the Totschunda fault occurs over a complex 25-km-long transfer zone of right-slip and normal fault traces. Three methods of calculating average surface slip all yield a moment magnitude of M w 7.8, in very good agreement with the seismologically determined magnitude of M 7.9. A comparison of strong-motion inversions for moment release with our slip distribution shows they have a similar pattern. The locations of the two largest pulses of moment release correlate with the locations of increasing steps in the average values of observed slip. This suggests that slip-distribution data can be used to infer moment release along other active fault traces.

Alaska

The Marina District, San Francisco, California: Geology, history, and earthquake effects

A northwest-trending valley in the bedrock surface is buried by firm Pleistocene bay clay, a dense Pleistocene sand layer, soft Holocene bay sediments, loose to dense Holocene beach and dune sands, and artificial fill that have an aggregate maximum thickness of about 90 m (300 ft). Artificial filling of a cove at the site of The Marina District proceeded gradually from the late 1860s to 1912, when major hydraulic filling was done for the Panama-Pacific International Exposition. The remains of thousands of piles driven for the Exposition very probably still exist and have had unknown effects on long-term ground settlement and earthquake-related ground displacements. Intensity maps of the 1906 earthquake, and seismic recordings and severe building damage in 1989, reported by others, indicate that ground motion was amplified on both natural and artificial ground. This suggests that the configuration of the bedrock surface and the location and thickness of various clay and sand deposits underlying the fill had an important effect on the shaking. However, most of the settlement and liquefaction and the damage to pipelines, building foundations, streets, side-walks, and curbs occurred in areas of artificial fill consisting mainly of loose sand.

California

The nature of earthquake prediction

Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least two decades that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. The reality is that earthquake prediction starts from long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. The analogy to catching a rabbit in an overgrown confined field may be appropriate. You do not just start out looking for the rabbit, you instead build a fence dividing the field in two and then decide which half the rabbit is in, thereby gaining one bit of information. You iterate this process until you have located the rabbit “close enough for practical purposes.” This is approximately how earthquake prediction proceeds in the real world, with time and position along a fault comprising the two dimensions of the search. (I assume here that we are considering for the moment only large earthquakes, that is those capable of inflicting serious damage on a regional scale; in California this means events of about M 6.7 and larger.) This more realistic perspective on the problem lays to rest the “red herring” that “earthquake predictions might do more harm than earthquakes.” These imaginary concerns are predicated on the fantasy of a prediction that precisely specifies time, place, and magnitude; in the real world a progression of probabilities that narrows the space-time window in small steps clearly carries no such threat.

Seismological Research Letters

New approaches to the analysis of population trends in land birds: Comment

James et al. (1996, Ecology 77:13-27) used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to examine geographic variability in patterns of population change for 26 species of wood warblers. They emphasized the importance of evaluating nonlinear patterns of change in bird populations, proposed LOESS-based non-parametric and semi-parametric analyses of BBS data, and contrasted their results with other analyses, including those of Robbins et al. (1989, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 86: 7658-7662) and Peterjohn et al. (1995, Pages 3-39 in T. E. Martin and D. M. Finch, eds. Ecology and management of Neotropical migratory birds: a synthesis and review of critical issues. Oxford University Press, New York.). In this note, we briefly comment on some of the issues that arose from their analysis of BBS data, suggest a few aspects of the survey that should inspire caution in analysts, and review the differences between the LOESS-based procedures and other procedures (e.g., Link and Sauer 1994). We strongly discourage the use of James et al.'s completely non-parametric procedure, which fails to account for observer effects. Our comparisons of estimators adds to the evidence already present in the literature of the bias associated with omitting observer information in analyses of BBS data. Bias resulting from change in observer abilities should be a consideration in any analysis of BBS data.

Ecology

Of elephants and blind men: Deer management in the U.S. National Parks

Overabundant populations of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) are becoming common in the eastern United States. Faced with burgeoning deer populations in eastern parks, the National Park Service (NPS) formulated policy based on its long experience with ungulate management in western parks. That the NPS failed to find a management solution acceptable to its many constituencies was inevitable. Like blind men touching different parts of an elephant and disagreeing about its form, those engaged in the debate about deer management in parks are viewing different parts of the ecological system. None has seen the entire system, and consequently, there is neither common agreement on the nature of the problem nor on the solutions. We explore the quandary of deer management in eastern parks by addressing three questions: (1) Can the National Park Service reconcile its management goals with those of its neighbors? (2) Can thresholds be identified for determining when to intervene in natural processes? (3) Is there a scientific foundation for proceeding with effective management of deer? We argue that reconciling the NPS management with that of state conservation agencies is not possible because management policy guides these agencies in opposite directions: the NPS is charged with limiting human impact on ecological processes, and state agencies are charged with exerting human control over population abundance. Questions about thresholds and a scientific basis for management arise from concern that irrupting deer populations are a manifestation of disrupted natural processes. Several population growth paradigms are at the heart of this ecological question. The science provides no consensus about which of these paradigms are appropriate to deer in eastern ecosystems. Thus, it is premature to expect science to identify if or when natural processes have been disrupted. While the NPS cannot effectively achieve its goals without better science, neither can it wait for science to fully understand the dynamics of plant–herbivore interactions. The best hope for resolving both the biological and political dilemmas surrounding deer management is through an adaptive management approach.

Ecological Applications

Geochemical evolution of a high arsenic, alkaline pit-lake in the Mother Lode Gold District, California

The Harvard orebody at the Jamestown gold mine, located along the Melones fault zone in the southern Mother Lode gold district, California, was mined in an open-pit operation from 1987 to 1994. Dewatering during mining produced a hydrologic cone of depression; recovery toward the premining ground-water configuration produced a monomictic pit lake with alkaline Ca-Mg-HCO 3 -SO 4 –type pit water, concentrations of As up to 1,200 μ g/L, and total dissolved solids (TDS) up to 2,000 mg/L. In this study, pit-wall rocks were mapped and chemically analyzed to provide a context for evaluating observed variability in the composition of the pit-lake waters in relationship to seasonal weather patterns. An integrated hydrogeochemical model of pit-lake evolution based on observations of pit-lake volume, water composition (samples collected between 1998–2000, 2004), and processes occurring on pit walls was developed in three stages using the computer code PHREEQC. Stage 1 takes account of seasonally variable water fluxes from precipitation, evaporation, springs, and ground water, as well as lake stratification and mixing processes. Stage 2 adds CO 2 fluxes and wall-rock interactions, and stage 3 assesses the predictive capability of the model. Two major geologic units in fault contact comprise the pit walls. The hanging wall is composed of interlayered slate, metavolcanic and metavolcaniclastic rocks, and schists; the footwall rocks are chlorite-actinolite and talc-tremolite schists generated by metasomatism of greenschist-facies mafic and ultramafic igneous rocks. Alteration in the ore zone provides evidence for mineralizing fluids that introduced CO 2 , S, and K 2 O, and redistributed SiO 2 . Arsenian pyrite associated with the alteration weathers to produce goethite and jarosite on pit walls and in joints, as well as copiapite and hexahydrite efflorescences that accumulate on wall-rock faces during dry California summers. All of these pyrite weathering products incorporate arsenic at concentrations from <100 up to 1,200 ppm. In the pit lake, pH and TDS reach seasonal highs in the summer epilimnion; pH is lowest in the summer hypolimnion. Arsenic and bicarbonate covary in the hypolimnion, rising as stratification proceeds and declining during winter rains. The computational model suggests that water fluxes alone do not account for this seasonal variability. Loss of CO 2 to the atmosphere, interaction with pit walls including washoff of efflorescent salts during the first flush and seasonal rainfall, and arsenic sorption appear to contribute to the observed pit-lake characteristics.

California

Sulfides associated with the Salton Sea geothermal brine

Concentrated saline brine tapped by a deep well drilled for geothermal power near the Salton Sea, California, deposited metal-rich siliceous scale at the rate of 2 to 3 tons per month. The iron-rich opaline scale contains an average of 20% Cu and up to 6% Ag present in bornite, digenite, chalcopyrite, a new dense polymorph of chalcocite, stromeyerite, and native silver.The brines are in equilibrium with an assemblage of sulfide minerals in the reservoir rocks. Sphalerite containing 16.6 mol % FeS is in equilibrium with the brine in which the activity of sulfur (a (sub s 2 ) ) is estimated at 10 (super -10.2) at 325 degrees C. This is in good agreement with the projected high-temperature data of Barton and Toulmin (2) for the system Fe-Zn-S. Other sulfides identified in the reservoir rocks are pyrite, pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and galena.The heavy metals in solution are apparently derived from the sediments of the brine reservoir, being released from the silicate minerals in which they occur in trace amounts, as metamorphism of the sediment proceeds. Although the total of the heavy metals in solution greatly exceeds the sulfur, on a molal basis, the brine is saturated with respect to sulfide components and addition of more sulfide ion would only cause precipitation of sulfides.

California

The possible role of sulfate-reduction kinetics in the formation of hydrothermal uranium deposits

Sulfate is known to be an active oxidizing agent at high temperatures; however, both experimental and geologic evidence indicate that as a hydrothermal solution cools (to about 200 degrees C, depending on pH) kinetic factors slow the rate at which sulfate enters into redox reactions. This retardation of sulfate reduction diminishes the effectiveness of sulfate as an oxidizing agent. Consequently, as cooling proceeds, the reducing effect of H 2 S (and other reduced species) is not balanced with the oxidizing effect of SO (super -2) 4 to the same extent as at higher temperatures. The result is a progressively more reducing solution, which is precisely what is needed to precipitate reduced uranium minerals and to generate the paragenetic sequence observed in these deposits. The same mechanism may apply to other types of epithermal deposits.

Economic Geology

Benthic foraminifera from a relict flood tidal delta along the Virginia/North Carolina Outer Banks

Examination of benthic foraminifera from six vibracores collected from a relict flood tidal delta near the Virginia/North Carolina border documents the assemblages associated with a former inlet and provides geologic evidence of this former inlet that once defined the boundary between Virginia and North Carolina along the Outer Banks. Three distinct foraminiferal assemblages were identified. The oldest assemblage contained abundant and diverse forms, dominated by Elphidium excavatum and several other calcareous species typical of shallow nearshore areas. Sediment immediately below and above this diverse calcareous assemblage was barren or nearly barren of foraminifera. A medium-salinity agglutinated marsh assemblage characterized mainly by Trochammina inflata with fewer Tiphotrocha comprimata overlies the uppermost barren unit. The core top assemblage was dominated by low-salinity marsh species Jadammina macrescens, Miliammina petila and Miliammina fusca. A comparison of these vertically-stacked assemblages with the modern geographic distribution of assemblages in the Outer Banks estuarine system and on the nearby continental shelf reveals a succession of depositional environments proceeding from estuarine and flood tidal delta to medium salinity marsh to lower salinity marsh. These changes in depositional environments reflect a rapid and dramatic increase in salinity caused by the opening of an inlet followed by a gradual decrease in salinity due to inlet shoaling and eventual marsh colonization of the flood tidal delta. These changes cannot be determined through sedimentological studies alone; micropaleontological analysis is required. We conclude this distinctive trend of changing depositional environments constitutes paleontological evidence of the origin and evolution of Old Currituck Inlet that breached the barrier spit prior to 1585AD, actively built a flood tidal delta for more than 145 years, and then closed in 1731AD allowing the flood tidal delta to become colonized by marsh species.

North Carolina, Virginia

Offshore exploration and industry change: The case of the Gulf of Mexico

This paper considers industry structure and the exploration performance (by size class of operator) of firms searching for oil and gas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. It also tracks the changes in industry structure that have occurred in response to a decline in the quality of remaining prospects in the area. Data presented indicate that because vertically integrated majors dominated in exploration in the early years of the Gulf of Mexico exploration history, they were able to discover 86% of the total hydrocarbons discovered through 1975. However, the data also show a dynamic relationship between the structure of the industry operating in an area and the quality of remaining prospects. The relative share of both credited discoveries and wildcat wells of nonmajor operators has increased as exploration in the gulf proceeded. For example, in state-owned waters from 1951 to 1955, major inns accounted for 85% of all wildcat wells drilled, whereas from 1971 to 1975 these firms accounted for only 30% of the wildcat wells. During these same two periods in the federal Gulf of Mexico, the majors' share of wildcats fell from 98% to 70%.

Journal of Petroleum Technology

Pesticide residues in the ecosystem

Pesticide residues have become a component of nearly all living organisms. Nearly all California birds and fish collected in a 1963 pesticide survey contained residues. Discovery of DDT and metabolites in Antarctic animals in 1964 pushed the distribution of pesticides to the remotest portions of the globe. Exchange of pesticides in the aquatic world progresses rapidly, even in the quiet waters of a pond. Any segment of the ecosystem–marshland, pond, forest, or field–receives pesticides of varied amounts and kinds at irregular and unknown intervals. Phytoplankton communities are an important food base in aquatic environments whose productivity can be affected by rather small exposure to pesticides. Degradation and loss of chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides from the ecosystem has been shown to proceed slowly. Pesticide-tolerant or resistant populations of fish and possibly other cold-blooded vertebrates have been shown to exist in areas of the south long subjected to pesticide treatments.

Book chapter

Microbial reduction of structural Fe3+ in nontronite by a thermophilic bacterium and its role in promoting the smectite to illite reaction

The illitization process of Fe-rich smectite (nontronite NAu-2) promoted by microbial reduction of structural Fe3+ was investigated by using a thermophilic metal-reducing bacterium, Thermoanaerobacter ethanolicus, isolated from the deep subsurface. T. ethanolicus was incubated with lactate as the sole electron donor and structural Fe3+ in nontronite as the sole electron acceptor, and anthraquinone-2, 6-disulfonate (AQDS) as an electron shuttle in a growth medium (pH 6.2 and 9.2, 65 ??C) with or without an external supply of Al and K sources. With an external supply of Al and K, the extent of reduction of Fe3+ in NAu-2 was 43.7 and 40.4% at pH 6.2 and 9.2, respectively. X-ray diffraction and scanning and transmission electron microscopy revealed formation of discrete illite at pH 9.2 with external Al and K sources, while mixed layers of illite/smectite or highly charged smectite were detected under other conditions. The morphology of biogenic illite evolved from lath and flake to pseudo-hexagonal shape. An external supply of Al and K under alkaline conditions enhances the smectite-illite reaction during microbial Fe3+ reduction of smectite. Biogenic SiO2 was observed as a result of bioreduction under all conditions. The microbially promoted smectite-illite reaction proceeds via dissolution of smectite and precipitation of illite. Thermophilic iron reducing bacteria have a significant role in promoting the smectite to illite reaction under conditions common in sedimentary basins.

American Mineralogist

Estimating transition probabilities for stage-based population projection matrices using capture-recapture data

In stage—based demography, animals are often categorized into size (or mass) classes, and size—based probabilities of surviving and changing mass classes must be estimated before demographic analyses can be conducted. In this paper, we develop two procedures for the estimation of mass transition probabilities from capture—recapture data. The first approach uses a multistate capture—recapture model that is parameterized directly with the transition probabilities of interest. Maximum likelihood estimates are then obtained numerically using program SURVIV. The second approach involvesa modification of Pollock's robust design. Estimation proceeds by conditioning on animals caught in a particualr class at time i, and then using closed models to estimate the number of these that are alive in other classes at i + 1. Both methods are illustrated by application to meadow vole, Microtus pennsylvanicus, capture—recapture data. The two methods produced reasonable estimates that were similar. Advantages of these two approaches include the directness of estimation, the absence of need for restrictive assumptions about the independence of survival and growth, the testability of assumptions, and the testability of related hypotheses of ecological interest (e.g., the hypothesis of temporal variation in transition probabilities).

Ecology