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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources

Dietary versus nondietary fatty acid profiles of lake trout ecotypes from Lake Superior and Great Bear Lake: Are fish really what they eat?

Fatty acids are well-established biomarkers used to characterize trophic ecology, food-web linkages, and the ecological niche of many different taxa. Most often, fatty acids that are examined include only those previously identified as “dietary” or “extended dietary” biomarkers. Fatty acids considered as nondietary biomarkers, however, represent numerous fatty acids that can be extracted. Some studies may include nondietary fatty acids (i.e., combined with dietary fatty acids), but do not specifically assess them, whereas in other studies, these data are discarded. In this study, we explored whether nondietary biomarker fatty acids can provide worthwhile information by assessing their ability to discriminate intraspecific diversity within and between lakes. Nondietary fatty acids used as biomarkers delineated variation among regions, among locations within a lake, and among ecotypes within a species. Physiological differences that arise from differences in energy processing can be adaptive and linked to habitat use by a species’ ecotype and likely explains why nondietary fatty acid biomarkers can be a relevant tool to delineate intraspecific diversity. Little is known about the nondietary-mediated differences in fatty acid composition, but our results showed that nondietary fatty acid biomarkers can be useful tool in identifying variation.

Lake Superior

Characterization of the structural–stratigraphic and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, Alaska North Slope

One of the most studied permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations in Arctic Alaska is the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study provides a detailed re-examination of the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend with a focus on the gas hydrate accumulation in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit. This integrated analysis of downhole well log data and published geophysical data has provided new insight on structural, stratigraphic, and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study revealed the relatively complex nature of the gas hydrate occurrences in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, with gas hydrates present in a series of coarsening upward, laterally pervasive, mostly fine-grained sand beds exhibiting high gas hydrate saturations. Most of the gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend are laterally segmented into distinct northwest- to southeast-trending fault blocks, occur in a combination of structural–stratigraphic traps, and are only partially hydrate filled with distinct down-dip water contacts. These findings suggest that the traditional parts of a petroleum system (i.e., reservoir, gas source, gas migration, and geologic timing of the system formation) also control the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend.

Alaska

Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60-year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Connecting habitat to species abundance: The role of light and temperature on the abundance of walleye in lakes

Walleye ( Sander vitreus) are an ecologically important species managed for recreational, tribal, and commercial harvest. Walleye prefer cool water and low light conditions, and therefore changing water temperature and clarity potentially impacts walleye habitat and populations across the landscape. Using survey data collected from 1993 to 2018 from 312 lakes in Minnesota, we evaluated the relationship between thermal-optical habitat and the relative abundance of small (0–300 mm), medium (300–450 mm), and large (450 + mm) walleye. Thermal-optical habitat was positively correlated with the relative abundance of small and medium walleye but not large walleye. Walleye were more abundant in larger, naturally reproducing lakes opposed to smaller, stocked lakes. Thermal-optical habitat changed in 59% of lakes since 1980 (26% increasing and 33% decreasing) and appears to be driven primarily by changes in water clarity and thus optical habitat area. Our study provides important insights into local and regional drivers that influence walleye populations that can be used to assist fisheries managers in setting population goals and managing harvest.

Minnesota

Confirmation of the southwest continuation of the Cat Square terrane, southern Appalachian Inner Piedmont, with implications for middle Paleozoic collisional orogenesis

Detailed geologic mapping, U-Pb zircon geochronology and whole-rock geochemical analyses were conducted to test the hypothesis that the southwestern extent of the Cat Square terrane continues from the northern Inner Piedmont (western Carolinas) into central Georgia. Geologic mapping revealed the Jackson Lake fault, a ∼15 m-thick, steeply dipping sillimanite-grade fault zone that truncates lithologically distinct granitoids and metasedimentary units, and roughly corresponds with a prominent aeromagnetic lineament hypothesized to represent the southern continuation of the terrane-bounding Brindle Creek fault. Results of U-Pb SHRIMP geochronology indicate Late Ordovician to Silurian granitoids (444–439 Ma) occur exclusively northwest of the fault, whereas Devonian (404–371 Ma) granitoids only occur southeast of the fault. The relatively undeformed Indian Springs granodiorite (three individual bodies dated 317–298 Ma) crosscuts the fault and occurs on both sides, which indicates the Jackson Lake fault is a pre-Alleghanian structure. However, detrital zircon signatures from samples southeast of the Jackson Lake fault reveal dominant Grenville provenance, in contrast to Cat Square terrane detrital zircon samples from the northern Inner Piedmont, which include peri-Gondwanan (600–500 Ma) and a prominent Ordovician-Silurian (∼430 Ma) signature. We interpret the rocks southeast of the Jackson Lake fault to represent the southwestern extension of the Cat Square terrane primarily based on the partitioning of granitoid ages and lithologic distinctions similar to the northern Inner Piedmont. Data suggest Cat Square terrane metasedimentary rocks were initially deposited in a remnant ocean basin setting and developed into an accretionary prism in front of the approaching Carolina superterrane, ultimately overridden by it in Late Devonian to Early Mississippian time. Burial to >20 km resulted in migmatization of lower plate rocks, forming an infrastructure beneath the Carolina superterrane suprastructure. Provenance patterns support ∼250 km of Devonian dextral translation of the composite Inner Piedmont, which places the northern portion of the Inner Piedmont adjacent to a suite of ∼430 Ma plutons in the Virginia Blue Ridge during deposition. The megascopic thrust-nappe structural style of the northern Inner Piedmont, combined with southwest-directed lateral extrusion at mid-crustal depths, may reconcile differences in timing of metamorphism between the Carolina and central Georgia Inner Piedmont and structural contrasts between the Brindle Creek and Jackson Lake faults.

American Journal of Science

Age constraints for Paleoproterozoic glaciation in the Lake Superior Region: Detrital zircon and hydrothermal xenotime ages for the Chocolay Group, Marquette Range Supergroup

A geochronological study of the Chocolay Group at the base of the Paleoproterozoic Marquette Range Supergroup in Michigan, Lake Superior Region, is attempted for the first time, Age data from detrital zircon grains and hydrothermal xenotime from the basal glaciogenic formation, the Enchantment Lake Formation, and the stratigraphically higher Sturgeon Quartzite and its equivalent, the Sunday Quartzite, provide maximum and minimum age constraints for the Chocolay Group. The youngest detrital zircon population in the Enchantment Lake Formation is 2317 ?? 6 Ma; in the Sturgeon Quartzite, it is 2306 ?? 9 Ma, and in the Sunday Quartzite, it is 2647 ?? 5 Ma. The oldest hydrothermal xenotime age in the Enchantment Lake Formation is 2133 ?? 11 Ma; in the Sturgeon Quartzite, it is 2115 ?? 5 Ma, and in the Sunday Quartzite, it is 2207 ?? 5 Ma. The radiometric age data in this study implies the depositional age of the Chocolay Group is constrained to ???2.3-2.2 Ga, which proves its correlation with part of the Huronian Supergroup in the Lake Huron Region, Ontario, and reveals the unconformity that separates the Chocolay Group from the overlying Menominee Group is up to 325 million years in duration. The source(s) of the ??? 2.3 Ga detrital zircon populations in the Enchantment Lake Formation and Sturgeon Quartzite remains an enigma because no known rock units of this age are known in the Michigan area. It is speculated that once widespread volcano-sedimentary cover sequences in Michigan were removed or concealed prior to Chocolay Group deposition. The hydrothermal xenotime ages probably reflect basinal hydrothermal fluid flow associated with the period of extension involving rifting and major dyke formation, that affected the North American provinces between 2.2 and 2.1 Ga. ?? 2006 NRC Canada.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences

Possible refugia in the Alexander Archipelago of southeastern Alaska during the late Wisconsin glaciation

The interpretation of the extent of late Wisconsin glaciation in southeastern Alaska has varied between geologists and biologists. Maps and reports of the region prepared by geologists commonly indicated that late Wisconsin ice extended as a large uniform front west to the edge of the continental shelf. However, the distribution of plants and animals in the region has led many biologists to suggest that there may have been ice-free areas that served as refugia during the late Wisconsin. Based on analyses of aerial photographs, topographic maps, and bathymetric charts, in conjunction with a review of previous literature and reconnaissance fieldwork throughout the region, this study presents data supporting a limited ice extent in the Alexander Archipelago during the late Wisconsin and identifies possible ice-free areas that may have served as refugia. These areas include (1) the Fairweather Ground, (2) the Herbert Graves Island area, (3) the western coast of southern Baranof Island and adjacent continental shelf, (4) Coronation Island and the adjacent continental shelf, (5) the Warren Island area, (6) the continental shelf from west of Heceta Island to Forrester Island in the south, (7) parts of the west coast of southern Dall Island, and (8) lowland areas in southern Prince of Wales Island. The identification of these possible refugia has bearing on the recolonization of the Alexander Archipelago, as they could have served as centers of biotic dispersal upon regional deglaciation and as stepping stones for early humans with a maritime tradition entering the western hemisphere from Asia. ?? 2007 NRC Canada.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences

Characterization of the Sonoran desert as a radiometric calibration target for Earth observing sensors

To provide highly accurate quantitative measurements of the Earth's surface, a comprehensive calibration and validation of the satellite sensors is required. The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Characterization Support Team, in collaboration with United States Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, has previously demonstrated the use of African desert sites to monitor the long-term calibration stability of Terra MODIS and Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+). The current study focuses on evaluating the suitability of the Sonoran Desert test site for post-launch long-term radiometric calibration as well as cross-calibration purposes. Due to the lack of historical and on-going in situ ground measurements, the Sonoran Desert is not usually used for absolute calibration. An in-depth evaluation (spatial, temporal, and spectral stability) of this site using well calibrated L7 ETM+ measurements and local climatology data has been performed. The Sonoran Desert site produced spatial variability of about 3 to 5% in the reflective solar regions, and the temporal variations of the site after correction for view-geometry impacts were generally around 3%. The results demonstrate that, barring the impacts due to occasional precipitation, the Sonoran Desert site can be effectively used for cross-calibration and long-term stability monitoring of satellite sensors, thus, providing a good test site in the western hemisphere.

Sonoran Desert

Emerging tools for continuous nutrient monitoring networks: Sensors advancing science and water resources protection

Sensors and enabling technologies are becoming increasingly important tools for water quality monitoring and associated water resource management decisions. In particular, nutrient sensors are of interest because of the well-known adverse effects of nutrient enrichment on coastal hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and impacts to human health. Accurate and timely information on nutrient concentrations and loads is integral to strategies designed to minimize risk to humans and manage the underlying drivers of water quality impairment. Using nitrate sensors as an example, we highlight the types of applications in freshwater and coastal environments that are likely to benefit from continuous, real-time nutrient data. The concurrent emergence of new tools to integrate, manage and share large data sets is critical to the successful use of nutrient sensors and has made it possible for the field of continuous nutrient monitoring to rapidly move forward. We highlight several near-term opportunities for Federal agencies, as well as the broader scientific and management community, that will help accelerate sensor development, build and leverage sites within a national network, and develop open data standards and data management protocols that are key to realizing the benefits of a large-scale, integrated monitoring network. Investing in these opportunities will provide new information to guide management and policies designed to protect and restore our nation’s water resources.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

A Bayesian life-cycle model to estimate escapement at maximum sustained yield in salmon based on limited information

Life-cycle models combine several strengths for estimating population parameters and biological reference points of harvested species and are particularly useful for those exhibiting distinct habitat shifts and experiencing contrasting environments. Unfortunately, time series data are often limited to counts of adult abundance and harvest. By incorporating data from other populations and by dynamically linking the life-history stages, Bayesian life-cycle models can be used to estimate stage-specific productivities and capacities as well as abundance of breeders that produce maximum sustained yield (MSY). Using coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) as our case study, we show that incorporating information on marine survival variability from nearby populations can improve model estimates and affect management parameters such as escapement at MSY. We further show that the expected long-term average yield of a fishery managed for a spawner escapement target that produces MSY strongly depends on the average marine survival. Our results illustrate the usefulness of incorporating information from other sources and highlight the importance of accounting for variation in marine survival when making inferences about the management of Pacific salmon.

Washington

Synchrony of alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, year-class strength in the Great Lakes region

Fish recruitment is interannually variable and challenging to predict. Annual recruitment is often regionally synchronized among populations and identifying drivers of such synchrony may help shed light on recruitment dynamics. We investigated interannual variation of alewife Alosa pseudoharengus recruitment by estimating year-class strength for populations from three of the Laurentian Great Lakes (lakes Huron, Michigan, and Ontario) using annual assessment survey data from 1968 to 2022. We first determined the age when year-class strength was set for each dataset. We then used a mixed-modeling approach incorporating age, year-class, and sampling year to estimate year-class strength for each study lake. Thereafter, we evaluated regional synchrony in year-class strength across the three lakes and evaluated potential climatic drivers of synchrony. Our results suggest that alewife year-class strength is set by age-1. Our model-derived indices of alewife year-class strength were synchronized among the three lakes, and we identified spring-summer degree-days as a potential regional driver of synchrony. This analysis highlights the potential for strong influence of climatic conditions on fish recruitment in large freshwater systems.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Adoption of non‐related goslings and intergenerational family cohesion among Greenland White‐fronted Geese (Anser albifrons flavirostris)

Greenland White-fronted Geese Anser albifrons flavirostris exhibit prolonged parent–offspring and sibling–sibling associations, suggesting fitness advantages to such behaviour, so we used reduced representation genome sequence data to determine the degree to which marked flock members observed associating in apparent parent–offspring and sibling–sibling relationships in the field were genetically related. Among 50 bled, marked and released geese, we genetically identified members of 11 different family groups, confirming all observed male parent–offspring relationships as genetically predicted, but only 10 out of 12 (83%) possible female parent–offspring relationships (i.e. two offspring were not genetically related to the adult female in their family groups observed in the field); these two ‘adopted’ offspring were responsible for four (15%) of the cases where observed ‘siblings’ were not genetically related to other family-member first-winter birds with which they associated. One multigenerational family consisted of three genetically confirmed grandmother–mother–sibling offspring relationships, not previously reported in arctic-nesting geese, as well as one of the two ‘adopted’ first-winter geese.

Wexford Slobs

Regeneration of Metrosideros polymorpha forests in Hawaii after landscape‐level canopy dieback

Questions (a) Have Metrosideros polymorpha trees become re‐established in Hawaiian forests previously impacted by canopy dieback in the 1970s? (b) Has canopy dieback expanded since the 1970s? (c) Can spatial patterns from this dieback be correlated with habitat factors to model future dieback in this area? Study Site An 83,603 ha study area on the eastern slopes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea volcanoes on the island of Hawaii, USA. Methods We analyzed very‐high‐resolution imagery to assess status of Metrosideros polymorpha forests across the eastern side of the island of Hawaii. We generated 1,170 virtual vegetation plots with a 100‐m radius; 541 plots in areas mapped in 1977 with trees dead or mostly defoliated (dieback), and 629 plots in adjacent wet forest habitat, previously mapped as non‐dieback condition. In each plot we estimated the frequency of M. polymorpha trees that were dead or mostly defoliated, and the frequency of trees with healthy crowns. These results were combined with habitat data to produce a spatial model depicting probability of canopy dieback within the study area. Results Seventy‐nine percent of plots mapped in 1977 in dieback condition recovered their canopy and were now considered in non‐dieback condition. Ninety‐one percent of plots in previous non‐dieback areas were found to still have a healthy M. polymorpha canopy in 2015. A spatial model allowed us to identify areas within the study area with high, medium, and low probability of experiencing this same type of canopy dieback in the future. Conclusions Most former dieback areas mapped within the study area in 1977 now show recovery of the tree canopy through growth of new cohorts of young M. polymorpha trees. This suggests these forest communities are resilient to this type of canopy loss and tree death so long as other factors do not disrupt the natural regeneration process.

Hawaii

The role of the geophysical template and environmental regimes in controlling stream-living trout populations

The importance of multiple processes and instream factors to aquatic biota has been explored extensively, but questions remain about how local spatiotemporal variability of aquatic biota is tied to environmental regimes and the geophysical template of streams. We used an individual-based trout model to explore the relative role of the geophysical template versus environmental regimes on biomass of trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii ). We parameterized the model with observed data from each of the four headwater streams (their local geophysical template and environmental regime) and then ran 12 simulations where we replaced environmental regimes (stream temperature, flow, turbidity) of a given stream with values from each neighboring stream while keeping the geophysical template fixed. We also performed single-parameter sensitivity analyses on the model results from each of the four streams. Although our modeled findings show that trout biomass is most responsive to changes in the geophysical template of streams, they also reveal that biomass is restricted by available habitat during seasonal low flow, which is a product of both the stream’s geophysical template and flow regime. Our modeled results suggest that differences in the geophysical template among streams render trout more or less sensitive to environmental change, emphasizing the importance of local fish–habitat relationships in streams.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

It’s complicated…environmental DNA as a predictor of trout and char abundance in streams

The potential to provide inferences about fish abundance from environmental (e)DNA samples has generated great interest. However, the accuracy of these abundance estimates is often low and variable across species and space. A plausible refinement is the use of common aquatic habitat monitoring data to account for attributes that influence eDNA dynamics. We therefore evaluated the relationships between eDNA concentration and abundance of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) at 42 stream sites in the Intermountain West (USA and Canada) and tested whether accounting for site-specific habitat attributes improved the accuracy of fish abundance estimates. eDNA concentrations were positively associated with fish abundance, but these relationships varied by species and site, and there was still considerable variation unaccounted for. Random site-level differences explained much of this variation, but specific habitat attributes of those sites explained relatively small amounts of this variation. Our results underscore that either eDNA sampling or environmental characterization will require further refinement before eDNA can be used reliably to estimate fish abundance in streams.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington

Selenium adsorption by goethite

The adsorption of Se by goethite was studied as a function of time (10 min–24 h), temperature (295.5 and 303.5 K), pH (4–11), particle concentration (3–300 mg/L), total Se concentration (0.02–5 × 10 −5 M ), oxidation state [Se(IV) and Se(VI)], and competing anion concentration [(anion)/(Se(IV) = 0.25 to 50 000] in order to assess the influence of these factors on Se mobility. The data indicate that (i) the surface sites of goethite are heterogeneous, (ii) the adsorption of selenite [Se(IV)] reaches equilibrium in 2 h and is completely reversible with respect to pH, (iii) the removal of selenite from solution increases with decreasing pH and increasing particle concentration, (iv) the adsorption edge for selenite shifts to lower pH values with increasing total selenite concentrations, (v) selenite adsorbs much more strongly than selenate [Se(VI)], and (vi) the influence of additional anions on selenite adsorption depends on the relative affinity of the anions for the surface and the relative concentrations of the anions. For a given anion concentration ratio, the competition sequence with selenite is phosphate > silicate ≥ citrate > molybdate > bicarbonate/carbonate > oxalate > fluoride > sulfate. Therefore, the conditions that favor the mobility of Se in the environment with respect to adsorption are alkaline pH, high Se concentrations, oxidizing conditions, and high concentrations of additional anions that strongly adsorb.

Soil Science Society of America Journal

Petrology and geochronology of Mesoproterozoic basement of the Mount Rogers area of southwestern Virginia and northwestern North Carolina: Implications for the Precambrian tectonic evolution of the southern Blue Ridge province

Results from new geologic mapping, SHRIMP U-Pb geochronology, and petrologic studies indicate that Mesoproterozoic basement in the northern French Broad massif near Mount Rogers consists of multiple, mostly granitic plutons, map- and outcrop-scale xenoliths of pre-existing crustal rocks, and remnants of formerly overlying meta-sedimentary lithologies. Zircon and titanite ages demonstrate that these rocks collectively record nearly 350 m.y. of tectonic evolution including periods of igneous intrusion at ca . 1190 to 1130 Ma (Early Magmatic Suite) and ca . 1075 to 1030 Ma (Late Magmatic Suite) and three episodes of regional metamorphism at ca . 1170 to 1140, 1070 to 1020, and 1000 to 970 Ma. The existence of ca . 1.3 Ga age crust is indicated by (1) orthogranofels of ca . 1.32 Ga age in a map-scale xenolith, (2) inherited zircons of ca . 1.33 to 1.29 Ga age in Early Magmatic Suite plutons, and (3) ca . 1.36 to 1.30 Ga age detrital zircons in meta-sedimentary lithologies. Mineral assemblages developed in amphibolites and granofelses indicate that metamorphism during both Mesoproterozoic episodes occurred at upper amphibolite- to lower granulite-facies conditions. Syn-orogenic Early Magmatic Suite plutons emplaced at ca . 1190 to 1145 Ma are characterized by high-K, variably magnesian, dominantly calc-alkalic compositions, and have trace-element characteristics indicative of continental-arc magmatic origin involving melting of thick continental crust. In contrast, ca . 1140 Ma age quartz syenite displays A-type features indicating derivation from depleted crustal sources with increased mantle input during waning stages of regional contraction. Plutons of the compositionally bimodal Late Magmatic Suite include (1) ca . 1060 Ma meta-granite with geochemical characteristics transitional between silicic rocks of arc systems and post-collisional granites of A-type lineage, and (2) ca . 1055 Ma monzodioritic rocks with A-type compositional characteristics that likely reflect derivation from fertile, mafic sources in the lower crust. Collectively, these data suggest that Mesoproterozoic rocks of the study area preserve evidence of multiple orogenic episodes that likely involved continental-arc development and deformation at ca . 1150 Ma followed by crustal thickening at ca . 1060 Ma. Field relations and geochronologic data indicate that regional uplift and sedimentation occurred at ca . 1100 Ma between the two episodes of overlapping magmatism and orogenesis. The nature and timing of Mesoproterozoic events recorded in basement rocks of the study area illustrate significant differences in the lithologic assemblages and geologic history preserved by Mesoproterozoic basement of the adjacent Shenandoah and French Broad massifs, suggesting that the Blue Ridge massifs occupied different locations within the regional Grenville-age orogen until about 1070 Ma when the effects of Ottawan-age tectonics began to affect both areas. The near ubiquity of Ottawan-age orogenic activity recorded in Mesoproterozoic rocks of the Blue Ridge, other Appalachian inliers such as the New Jersey Highlands, and the Grenville province of Canada, including the Adirondacks, suggests that these formerly disparate terranes were amalgamated to form a common, regional orogen by this time.

North Carolina, Virginia

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California