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Seismic refraction analysis: the path forward

Seismic Refraction Methods: Unleashing the Potential and Understanding the Limitations; Tucson, Arizona, 29 March 2012 A workshop focused on seismic refraction methods took place on 29 May 2012, associated with the 2012 Symposium on the Application of Geophysics to Engineering and Environmental Problems. This workshop was convened to assess the current state of the science and discuss paths forward, with a primary focus on near-surface problems but with an eye on all applications. The agenda included talks on these topics from a number of experts interspersed with discussion and a dedicated discussion period to finish the day. Discussion proved lively at times, and workshop participants delved into many topics central to seismic refraction work.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Sediment-transport investigations of the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, 1999 through 2001: Data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport

The upper Yellowstone River in Montana is an important State and national water resource, providing recreational, agricultural, and commercial benefits. Floods in 1996 and 1997, with recorded peak discharges having recurrence intervals close to 100 years, caused substantial streambank erosion and hill- slope mass wasting. Large quantities of sand-, gravel-, and cobble-sized material entrained by the flood flows became flood-bar deposits, creating a source of sediment available for transport during future floods. The flood damage and resulting sedimentation raised concerns about potential streambank-stabilization projects and how the river and riparian corridor might be managed in the future. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Park Conservation District, the Montana Department of Transportation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, investigated sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River near Livingston from 1999 through 2001 as part of a cumulative effects study to provide a scientific basis for future river management decisions. The purpose of this report is to present the results of data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport for the upper Yellowstone River. The study area included a 13.5-mile study reach of the upper Yellowstone River where substantial sediment transport occurred in 1996 and 1997. In this study area, the upper Yellowstone River is a high gradient, coarse-bed stream having a slope of about 0.0028 foot per foot or more than 14 feet per mile. The study area drains about 3,551 square miles, and runoff results primarily from snowmelt during the spring and summer months. As part of sediment-transport investigations, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed river cross sections, characterized streambed-material particle size using particle counts and sieve analyses, and collected bedload- and suspended-sediment data during three runoff seasons (1999-2001). Data were collected for stream discharges that ranged from 2,220 cubic feet per second (typical of pre- and post-runoff discharge) to 25,100 cubic feet per second (about 125 percent of bankfull discharge). The distribution of streambed-material particle size was determined, and sediment-transport curves for bedload discharge, suspended-sediment discharge, and total-sediment discharge were developed. The threshold values of streamflow and average stream velocity needed for initiation of bedload transport for selected sediment-size classes showed that little to no bedload was transported for an average stream velocity below about 3 feet per second, and the only particle size transported as bedload at that velocity was sand. Over the range of stream discharges sampled and with silt- and finer-sized particles excluded, bedload discharge averaged about 18 percent of the total-sediment discharge, equal to bedload discharge plus suspended-sediment discharge. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, bedload was, respectively, less than about 2 percent and about 30 percent of the total-sediment discharge. Over the range of stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge averaged about 48 percent, where the total suspended-sediment discharge included sand-, silt- and finer-sized particles. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge was, respectively, less than about 16 percent and about 50 percent of the total suspended-sediment discharge. The sediment-transport curves were compared to curves for selected sites in the western United States having drainage areas ranging from 21 square miles to over 20,000 square miles. Daily sediment loads transported at bankfull discharge were calculated for each site and results were plotted in relation to drainage area. Results based on the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that the estimated daily bedload transported at bankfull discharge in the upper Yellowstone River exceeded the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains and is similar in magnitude to that for selected sites in Alaska having braided channels and glacial and snowmelt runoff. Similar comparisons for suspended sediment indicate that daily suspended-sediment load at bankfull discharge is relatively high in the upper Yellowstone River, plotting slightly above the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Sediment data were used to develop individual transport equations for seven size classes of sediment ranging from small cobbles to very fine sand. A step-wise regression procedure relating sediment discharge to important hydraulic variables showed that average stream velocity was the only significant variable at the 95-percent confidence level. Bedload and suspended-sediment data and equations indicate that more sand is transported for a given velocity than any other particle size, and very little sand-size sediment load is transported below an average stream velocity of about 2.5 feet per second. Transport of coarser-sized sediment (limited to bedload) becomes very little for an average velocity less than about 3.5 feet per second. Results for the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River tends to be limited more by the transport capacity of the stream (capacity or transport limited), than to the availability of sediment in the watershed (supply limited). Sediment data collected and analyzed were used to simulate sediment transport in the study reach using the BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation, or BRI-STARS computer model. The model was calibrated and verified using selected data from historical runoff periods. Simulated total-sediment loads, on a reach-averaged basis, were in good agreement with the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 2-year flood hydrograph but were considerably smaller for the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood hydrographs. The differences probably were largely due to the inability of the model to simulate streambank erosion, hillslope mass-wasting, and other channel-widening processes, which had supplied substantial quantities of sediment to the channel during the 1996 and 1997 floods, and probably continued to contribute to the sediment load in the subsequent years (1999-2001) when the data were collected. Furthermore, the transport curve was applied beyond the measured data for the highest discharges, and may thus be unreliable. Also, the transport curve derived from only limited data may not apply over the full duration of the hydrograph and sediment might be transported over only a portion of the hydrograph, especially for rivers like the upper Yellowstone where snowmelt runoff predominates. The true sediment discharge is, therefore, unknown and might be closer to the simulated values than to the values calculated from the transport curve.

Montana

Uncertainty analysis of index-velocity meters and discharge computations at the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois, water years 2006–16

Monitoring discharge in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal is critical for the accounting done by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers of the diversion of water from Lake Michigan to the Mississippi River Basin by the State of Illinois. The primary streamgage used for this discharge monitoring, the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois (U.S. Geological Survey station 05536890), is operated by the U.S. Geological Survey as an index-velocity station and at the time of this study (water years 2006–16) had two continuous velocity meters (an acoustic Doppler velocity meter and an acoustic velocity meter) and a water-level sensor, among other instruments. Discharge is computed at the streamgage using an index-velocity rating developed by linear regression of the velocity meter values fitted to discharges intermittently measured with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. In this study, the uncertainties of the velocity meters and stage sensors were estimated using a type B (judgment-based) approach, and measured discharge uncertainties were taken from those provided by a common acoustic Doppler current profiler data processing software tool, QRev. The velocity meter uncertainties, expressed as standard deviations, were estimated to be about 2.5 percent of velocity except near zero, where they exceeded that fraction, whereas for the acoustic Doppler current profiler uncertainties, when converted to mean channel velocity, 2.5 percent of velocity was determined to be a lower bound. The estimated velocity meter and measured discharge uncertainties were compared to index-velocity ratings developed from regression analyses of two types: (1) those that allow specification of measurement uncertainties and (2) ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, which does not. Based on the linearity of the index-velocity rating and the approximate agreement of the distributions of the fitting and prediction velocities, the assumptions required for unbiased prediction by OLS regression were determined to be approximately satisfied. From the regression residuals, it was determined that the estimated measurement uncertainties are too small, too similar between acoustic velocity meter and acoustic Doppler velocity meter velocities, and possibly too strongly dependent on velocity. Large, non-Gaussian OLS regression residuals also were observed. The uncertainty of annual mean discharge computed using the different regressions also was considered and was determined to be strongly dependent on the assumed measurement uncertainty. Because the assumptions required for OLS regression to give unbiased and variance-maintaining predictions were determined to be approximately satisfied, the results of discharge computation using the index-velocity rating based on OLS regression were deemed to be reliable. These results indicate about 0.8-percent uncertainty in the computed discharge as measured by the coefficient of variation at the annual time scale when using the acoustic Doppler velocity meter and 1.2-percent uncertainty with the acoustic velocity meter. It may be possible to improve the accuracy of the computed discharge and its uncertainty by further examining the measurement uncertainties and addressing differences in the distributions of the velocities used in fitting the index-velocity ratings and those used in prediction. Although the index-velocity ratings and computed discharges presented in this study are similar to those used in computing the published discharge at the study streamgage, the values presented in this report are not intended to replace the published discharge.

Illinois

HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

Techniques and Methods

Floodflow characteristics of Butternut Creek and Jamesville Reservoir, Jamesville, Onondaga County, New York

A hydrologic study of Butternut Creek, near Jamesville, Onondaga County, N.Y., was done to develop inflow and outflow hydrographs of the ' probable maximum flood ' and the ' standard project flood ' of Jamesville Reservoir, as defined by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The inflow and outflow discharges of the probable maximum flood were computed to be 23,600 and 23,100 cubic feet per second, respectively, and of the standard project flood, 9,400 and 8,800 cubic feet per second, respectively. A rating curve computed for the dam spillway indicates that water-surface elevations produced at the dam by runoff from both the standard project flood and the maximum probable flood would be above the top of the spillway abutments. The 10- and 100-year peak discharges at the Butternut Creek gaging station were computed by the HEC-1 program of the Corps of Engineers to be 2 ,160 and 3,450 cubic feet, respectively, as compared to 1,680 and 2,810 cubic feet per second computed by a log-Pearson type III analysis of the station data. The HEC-1 values are within the 5- and 95-percent confidence limits of the log-Pearson type III values. (Kosco-USGS)

New York

Investigations of the characteristics, origin, and residence time of the upland residual mantle of the Piedmont of Fairfax County, Virginia

Undisturbed cores of upland regolith developed from a variety of crystalline rocks of the Piedmont province in Fairfax County, Va., have been obtained by using a combination of Shelby tubes, Denison sampler, and modified diamond core drilling. The core study correlated variations in chemistry, mineralogy, and texture with engineering properties throughout individual weathering profiles and contrasted these parameters among weathering profiles developed from various parent rocks. Coring sites were chosen to obtain a maximum depth of weathering on diverse lithologies. The rocks that were investigated included metapelite, metagraywacke, granite, diabase, and serpentinite. Four to twelve samples per core were selected for analysis of petrography, texture, clay mineralogy, and major-element chemistry. The number of samples was determined on the basis of (1) the thickness of the weathering profile (from about 1 m in serpentinite to more than 30 m in pelitic schist) and (2) megascopic changes in the weathering profile. Shear strength and compressibility were determined on corresponding segments of core. Standard penetration tests were performed adjacent to coring sites to evaluate in-place engineering properties. The regolith profiles on all rocks can be subdivided into soil, massive subsoil, saprolite, and weathered rock zones. Major differences in thicknesses of these zones are related to parent rock. Total regolith thickness is related to saprolite thickness. Saprolite is thickest on quartzofeldspathic metapelite, metagraywacke, and granite; thinner on diabase; and thinnest on serpentinite. Thickness of saprolite is related to rock structure and mineralogy. Geochemical changes of saprolite developed from each rock type follow predictable trends from fresh rock to soil profile, with increases in Ti, AI, Fe 3 +, and H 2 0+relative to absolute losses of Si, Fe2+, Mg, Ca, and Na. These variations are more pronounced in the weathering profiles above mafic and ultramafic rocks than in those above metagraywacke. Clay minerals in granite, schist, and metagraywacke saprolites are kaolinite, dioctahedral vermiculite, interlayered mica-vermiculite, and minor illite. Gibbsite is developed in near-surface samples of schist. Standard penetration test data for the upper 7 m of saprolite above schist, metagraywacke, and granite suggest alternations between stronger and weaker horizons that correlate with megascopic ally identified zones: soil, massive subsoil, and saprolite. The data correlate with density. Shear strength increases fairly regularly downward in the weathering profile. The engineering behavior of diabase saprolite is controlled by a dense, plastic, near-surface clay layer (montmorillonite and kaolinite) overlying rock that is weathered to a granular state (grus); the engineering properties of serpentinite are controlled by a very thin weathering profile. Similarities in regolith thickness, zonation, mineralogy, and chemistry of quartzofeldspathic rocks indicate the existence of fundamental geochemical and geomechanical controls on regolith evolution on the Piedmont upland. Data from the profiles of quartzofeldspathic regolith are used to construct a model suggesting the principal rate-control steps in the development and downwasting of the upland regolith. This model is consistent with available information about Piedmont hydrology and tectonic uplift.

Professional Paper

Porometric properties of siliciclastic marine sand: A comparison of traditional laboratory measurements with image analysis and effective medium modeling

During the 1999 sediment acoustics experiment (SAX99), porometric properties were measured and predicted for a well sorted, medium sand using standard laboratory geotechnical methods and image analysis of resin-impregnated sediments. Sediment porosity measured by laboratory water-weight-loss methods (0.372 ?? 0.0073 for mean ??1 standard deviation) is 0.026 lower than determined by microscopic image analysis of resin-impregnated sediments (0.398 ?? 0.029). Values of intrinsic permeability (m2) determined from constant-head permeameter measurements (3.29 ?? 10-11 ?? 0.60 ?? 10-11) and by microscopic image analysis coupled with effective medium theory modeling (2.78 ?? 10-11 ?? 1.01 ?? 10-11) are nearly identical within measurement error. The mean value of tortuosity factor measured from images is 1.49 ?? 0.09, which is in agreement with tortuosity factor determined from electrical resistivity measurements. Slight heterogeneity and anisotropy are apparent in the top three centimeters of sediment as determined by image-based porometric property measurements. However, the overall similarity for both measured and predicted values of porosity and permeability among and within SAX99 sites indicates sediments are primarily homogeneous and isotropic and pore size distributions are fairly uniform. The results indicate that an effective medium theory technique and two-dimensional image analysis accurately predicts bulk permeability in resin-impregnated sands.

IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering

Photogrammetric analysis of the Mars Global Surveyor mapping data

This paper studies the photogrammetric mapping properties and capabilities of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mapping data. Starting from the raw MGS data, we decompress the MOC narrow angle images, extract, and calculate their exterior orientation from the SPICE kernels, and calculate the 3D coordinates of MOLA footprints from MOLA PEDR files. A new approach is proposed that registers a MOLA profile to stereo MOC images over the same area with robust and faster convergence. Intersection is conducted to determine the 3D positions of image points measured on MOC stereo pairs. It is shown that there is a nearly constant uncertainty of one MOLA ground spacing distance (approximately 325 m) along the flight direction in MOC and MOLA registration. This is caused by the uncertainties in SPICE kernels, MOLA points, and the determination of time tags for MOC scan lines, which possibly constitutes the dominant error source for the registration. Intersection calculation reaches an optimal balance by distributing the uncertainty evenly in the two images of a stereo pair. As for the photogrammetric mapping capabilities, an uncertainty of 180.8 m in planimetric distance and 30.8 m in elevation difference is estimated. A number of numerical and graphic results over three of the selected candidate landing sites for the Mars Exploration Rover mission are presented for analysis and illustration.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering

Curiosity’s robotic arm-mounted Mars Hand Lens Imager (MAHLI): Characterization and calibration status

MAHLI (Mars Hand Lens Imager) is a 2-megapixel, Bayer pattern color CCD camera with a macro lens mounted on a rotatable turret at the end of the 2-meters-long robotic arm aboard the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity. The camera includes white and longwave ultraviolet LEDs to illuminate targets at night. Onboard data processing services include focus stack merging and data compression. Here we report on the results and status of MAHLI characterization and calibration, covering the pre-launch period from August 2008 through the early months of the extended surface mission through February 2015. Since landing in Gale crater in August 2012, MAHLI has been used for a wide range of science and engineering applications, including distinction among a variety of mafic, siliciclastic sedimentary rocks; investigation of grain-scale rock, regolith, and eolian sediment textures and structures; imaging of the landscape; inspection and monitoring of rover and science instrument hardware concerns; and supporting geologic sample selection, extraction, analysis, delivery, and documentation. The camera has a dust cover and focus mechanism actuated by a single stepper motor. The transparent cover was coated with a thin film of dust during landing, thus MAHLI is usually operated with the cover open. The camera focuses over a range from a working distance of 2.04 cm to infinity; the highest resolution images are at 13.9 µm per pixel; images acquired from 6.9 cm show features at the same scale as the Mars Exploration Rover Microscopic Imagers at 31 µm/pixel; and 100 µm/pixel is achieved at a working distance of ~26.5 cm. The very highest resolution images returned from Mars permit distinction of high contrast silt grains in the 30–40 µm size range. MAHLI has performed well; the images need no calibration in order to achieve most of the investigation’s science and engineering goals. The positioning and repeatability of robotic arm placement of the MAHLI camera head have been excellent on Mars, often with the hardware arriving within millimeters of expectation. Stability while imaging is usually such that the images are sharply focused; some exceptions—thought to result from motion induced by wind—have occurred during longer exposure LED-illuminated night imaging. Image calibration includes relative radiometric correction by removal of dark current and application of a flat field. Dark current is negligible to minor for typical daytime exposure durations and temperatures at the Gale field site. A pre-launch flat field product is usually applied to the data but new products created from images acquired by MAHLI of the Martian sky are superior and can provide a relative radiometric accuracy of ~6%. The camera lens imparts negligible distortion to its images; camera models derived from pre-launch data, with CAHV and CAHVOR parameters captured in their archived labels, can be applied to the images for analysis. MAHLI data and derived products, including pre-launch images, are archived with the NASA Planetary Data System (PDS). This report includes supplementary calibration and characterization data that are not available in the PDS archive (see supplement file MAHLITechRept0001_Supplement.zip).

MSL MAHLI Technical Report

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Scientific Investigations Report

Liquefaction evidence for strong earthquakes of Holocene and latest Pleistocene ages in the states of Indiana and Illinois, USA

Sand- and gravel-filled clastic dikes of seismic liquefaction origin occur throughout much of southern Indiana and Illinois. Nearly all of these dikes originated from prehistoric earthquakes centered in the study area. In this area at least seven and probably eight strong prehistoric earthquakes have been documented as occurring during the Holocene, and at least one during the latest Pleistocene. The recognition of different earthquakes has been based mainly on timing of liquefaction in combination with the regional pattern of liquefaction effects, but some have been recognized only by geotechnical testing at sites of liquefaction. Most paleo-earthquakes presently recognized lie in Indiana, but equally as many may have occurred in Illinois. Studies in Illinois have not yet narrowly bracketed the age of clastic dikes at many sites, which sometimes causes uncertainty in defining the causative earthquake, but even in Illinois the largest paleo-earthquakes probably have been identified. Prehistoric magnitudes were probably as high as about moment magnitude M 7.5. This greatly exceeds the largest historic earthquake of M 5.5 centered in Indiana or Illinois. The strongest paleo-earthquakes struck in the vicinity of the concentration of strongest historic seismicity. Elsewhere, paleo-earthquakes on the order of M 6-7 have occurred even where there has been little or no historic seismicity. Both geologic and geotechnical methods of analysis have been essential for verification of seismic origin for the dikes and for back-calculating prehistoric magnitudes. Methods developed largely as part of this study should be of great value in unraveling the paleoseismic record elsewhere.Sand- and gravel-filled clastic dikes of seismic liquefaction origin occur throughout much of southern Indiana and Illinois. Nearly all of the dikes originated from prehistoric earthquakes. To date, both geologic and geotechnical methods of analysis have been essential for verification of seismic origin for the dikes and for back-calculating prehistoric magnitudes.

Engineering Geology

Sediment lithology and borehole erosion testing, American and Sacramento Rivers, California

Executive Summary A field investigation intended to measure the potential for erosion of sediments beside the American and Sacramento Rivers near Sacramento, California, is described. The study featured two primary components: (1) drilling and soil sampling to reveal lithology, down to depths matching the local river thalweg, where possible, and (2) borehole erosion tests (BETs) as described by Briaud and others (2017) at many of the same locations. The latter test involved drilling a vertical hole, measuring its diameter profile, inserting a hollow drilling rod to almost the bottom of the hole, and pumping fluid through the drilling rod at a known discharge for a chosen time interval. The hole was then resurveyed to establish an erosion rate (change in borehole radius divided by duration of flow event) as a function of depth, and the test was repeated. This test was performed with water as the erosive fluid at 12 locations, with 1 test repeated with drilling mud. Lithology holes were drilled at these same locations and an additional five locations. Drilling operations took place on river left and river right on the American River and river left (left bank, when looking downstream) on the Sacramento River. The drilling to acquire sediment samples and reveal lithology involved the use of a mobile drilling rig equipped with a 6-inch (in.) auger, a 140-pound pneumatic hammer to drive split spoon and Calmod samplers, and a piston to push Shelby tube samplers to obtain samples of clayey material. Blow count (hammer blows per 6-in. sampler advance) was recorded while sampling, and the process was logged using standard U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Sacramento District procedures. Sediment samples were identified and described in the field per ASTM D2488 and then delivered to a USACE laboratory and to Texas A&M University for additional laboratory analysis. The BETs were performed with the same drilling rig that performed the drilling for definition of lithology. In most instances, tests were limited to regions above the water table, to avoid slumping of the borehole and heaving sands pushing into the hole. Most of the tests featured sediments that were primarily silty sand or sandy silt. The testing procedure involved comparing borehole profiles before and after passing an assumed constant discharge through a drilling rod to the bottom of the drilled hole. Discharge and water losses were logged during the testing procedure, and water losses into the walls of the drilled hole were typically less than 5 percent of the introduced volume. For the tests performed with water, the coefficient of variation of the discharge ranged from 4.5 to 28 percent, with a mean of 13 percent, but the mean discharge appeared to be reasonably steady over the typical test duration of 10–30 minutes. It was thus assumed that discharge was constant and water losses during the tests were neglected. Coefficients of variation of the discharge for the three tests performed with drilling mud were much higher (20–50 percent), but erosion rates were much smaller. Resolution of the borehole caliper-reported diameter was 0.1 in. and several of the tests lasted for 10 minutes. With boreholes measured twice, before and after each test, and averaged, these numbers correspond to an apparent erosion rate (radius change divided by test duration) of 0.3 inches per hour (in/hr), which is a theoretical lower bound on what could be measured with this approach and equipment. In practice, 0.5 in/hr appears to be a more realistic lower bound on the detectable erosion rate, based on inspection of computed changes and erosion rates. Three flow speeds (5, 8, and 12 feet per second; ft/s) were targeted for the tests. Because of equipment limitations, it was not possible in the field to reach an average of 12 ft/s throughout any given borehole, although much higher flow speeds were reached locally in some cases. Most tests featured at least two different flow rates, and the borehole was typically surveyed at least twice for each condition, to allow averaging to reduce the influence of random diameter measurement errors. Errors arising from out-of-round boreholes appeared to be uncommon. Briaud and others (2017) recommend stepped increases in the flow rate during a borehole test. This approach was taken during initial testing but proved to be problematic. The drilled hole would be enlarged by the first (smaller) discharge, and then it would be difficult to reach the desired higher flow speed because of the larger annulus between the drilled hole and the drilling rod that supplied the water for testing. This was largely solved by starting with a high discharge and, in many cases, maintaining it for subsequent tests with the average flow speed decreasing as the hole enlarged. Several different measures of erosion rate were computed and investigated by comparison to lithological profiles. The vertically averaged erosion rate for each hole was computed, but this result does not reveal vertical variability of erodibility; and the mean flow speed within the hole is not a good representation of the speed when attempting to determine a relationship between erosion rate and flow speed. Instead, for each 6-inch layer within the hole, vertically averaged erosion rates and local flow speeds were computed and plotted. Where possible, the soil type for each layer was identified. For later laboratory analysis, project protocol dictated collection of Shelby tube samples whenever clay was encountered. Plots of erosion rate versus flow speed displayed scatter that indicate that several other factors influence the erosion potential of the soil. Blow count was not a good predictor variable; it is better correlated with soil type than erodibility. Soils were classified as sand, silt, or clay, depending on which soil type dominated within a sample. In general, those classified as sand and silt did not reveal clear patterns allowing erosion rate to be computed directly from flow speed, but the test results define the range and bounds on the erosion rate. Results for clay were slightly clearer with the erosion rate increasing with flow speed, once a threshold had been reached. In this case, the erosion rate appeared to change near a speed of 7 ft/s; above this threshold, erosion rates jumped from less than 2 in/hr to greater than 3 in/hr. Even for soils with similar classifications, large differences in erodibility were observed between sites and in different layers within an individual hole. One potential means of dealing with this problem would be to perform more tests at each site to allow establishment of relationships between flow speed and erodibility for individual layers within a borehole. The maximum number of tests performed at a site in this study was four, but in some cases, results are available for only one or two flow events. Comparison of data to a set of Erosion Function Apparatus tests that provide better resolution of the vertical variation in the erosion rate versus flow speed relationship would allow further investigation of this idea. It was hypothesized that drilling mud could expand the utility of the test in soft sands by reducing the likelihood of slumping that would be interpreted as erosion. The one test that was performed with drilling mud indicated that it greatly reduced the erosion rate of the soils encountered. It yielded very different results from the test performed at the same site with water. Erosion rate is often expressed as a function of shear stress applied to a soil. In order to compute shear stress on the walls of the drilled hole, one must assume a form for the relationship between flow speed and shear stress and select a friction factor that is often estimated empirically from head loss, observed water-surface profiles, surface roughness, or other data not available in this report. One methodology for computing shear stress from flow speed is discussed in this report, but the test results have been presented in terms of erosion rate versus flow speed to avoid assuming values that are not verifiable via the field data collected in this study. Erosion rate was computed from directly measured values (sequential borehole profiles) and flow speed was computed directly from measured quantities (discharge and borehole geometry). The BET has seen limited application, primarily in clayey soils, whereas most of the soils encountered in this study were primarily sand or silt. The objective of the BET is to determine the erodibility of in situ soil below the ground or riverbed surface. The BET is simple in principle and has the advantage of revealing erodibility of in situ sediments below the ground or riverbed surface; it appears to be very useful in clayey soils, based on previously published work, but is more difficult to apply in sandy soils where slumping and water losses within the hole during testing are more likely to occur. The BET did reveal a large variation in the results both laterally and vertically, even for the same soil-type classification. It is thus recommended that the results be applied considering these spatial variations rather than attempting to universally assign an erosion-rate relationship to a particular soil type. Results have been provided showing the results by site and by sediment classification (sand, silt, and clay), to allow either approach. Where possible, it is important to rely on site-specific results because the erosion-rate relationship for a given soil type varied by site. Data collected during this project have been made publicly available online via the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Sciencebase database. The measured borehole profiles, discharge, lithology log sheets, and photos are available in the data release that accompanies this report (see Work and Livsey (2019) in the “Selected References” section for the appropriate link).

California

Analysis of floods, including the tropical storm Irene inundation, of the Ottauquechee River in Woodstock, Bridgewater, and Killington and of Reservoir Brook in Bridgewater and Plymouth, Vermont

Digital flood-inundation maps were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New York District for a 25-mile reach of the Ottauquechee River and a 2-mile reach of Reservoir Brook in Vermont. The reach of the Ottauquechee River that was studied extends from River Road Bridge in Killington, Vt., to the Taftsville Dam in the village of Taftsville, in the town of Woodstock, Vt., and the reach of Reservoir Brook extends from a location downstream from the Woodward Reservoir in Plymouth, Vt., to its confluence with the Ottauquechee River in Bridgewater, Vt. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood (also referred to as the 100-year flood) and the peak of the tropical storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011, which was greater than the 0.2-percent AEP flood (also referred to as the 500-year flood), as referenced to the USGS Ottauquechee River near West Bridgewater, Vt. streamgage (station 01150900). In addition to the two digital flood inundation maps, flood profiles were created that depict the study reach flood elevation of tropical storm Irene of August 2011 and the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEP floods, also known as the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods, respectively. The 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood discharges were determined using annual peak flow data from the USGS Ottauquechee River near West Bridgewater, Vt. streamgage (station 01150900). Flood profiles were computed for the Ottauquechee River and Reservoir Brook by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using documented high-water marks of the peak of the tropical storm Irene flood of August 2011 as well as stage discharge data as determined for USGS Ottauquechee River near West Bridgewater, Vt. streamgage (station 01150900). The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a digital elevation model within a geographic information system to delineate the areas flooded during tropical storm Irene and for the 1-percent AEP water-surface profile. The digital elevation model data were derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data obtained for a 3,281-foot (1,000-meter) corridor along the Ottauquechee River study reach and were augmented with 33-foot (10- meter) contour interval data in the modeled flood-inundation areas outside the lidar corridor. The 33-foot (10-meter) contour interval USGS 15-minute quadrangle topographic digital raster graphics map used to augment lidar data was produced at a scale of 1:24,000. The digital flood inundation maps and flood profiles along with information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages on the Internet provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Vermont

Profiling lunar dust dissolution in aqueous environments: The design concept

Published studies and internal NASA reports indicate that when native lunar dust is suspended in an aqueous solution a variety of metal and other ions are released. This release has implications for future lunar missions, ranging from effects on mission hardware, effects on life support systems, possible direct effects on human health, and effects on research experiments such as plant growth experiments, space biology experiments and any activities that may involve the use of water sourced from the lunar poles. Furthermore, such contaminants could become concentrated or chemically altered to a more hazardous form during a variety of lunar mission activities, including everything from space suit cleaning to lunar industrial materials extraction. The exact profile of the release of ions from lunar dust and the nature of the partially dissolved particles has not been explored. Any model of this dissolution must be based on an understanding of the unique micromorphology of lunar dust, including its glassy nature, agglutinate features, high surface area and the presence of small deposits of elemental iron (nanophase iron) located near the surface of the grain particles. Dust has a very high surface area available for interaction with water. For this reason, on first exposure to water, an immediate pulsed release of ions could occur, with more prolonged release taking place over months or years. The few studies that have been conducted previously have been limited in both the time scales examined and in the selection of ions that were measured. The proposed investigation is a comprehensive materials science investigation, using the most modern analytical tools to catalogue all metals given off from lunar dust in various aqueous solutions and their time profiles of release from the very short term to the very long term. The product of the proposed study will be a comprehensive database determined from NASA curated samples collected from the Apollo landing sites that can be applied to research in both living systems and non-living systems on the moon. The methods developed in the proposed study will also establish standards for analysis of lunar dust samples returned from future manned missions (Artemis and others) and future robotic missions. The knowledge gained from this basic materials science investigation will have broad impact on the design of engineered human safety and health systems.

Acta Astronautica

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10 −3 to 10 −7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [ National Research Council , 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [ Tomlinson and Solak , 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km 2 ) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km 2 . Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m 3 s −1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m 3 s −1 . Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Water Resources Research

Simulation technique for modeling flow on floodplains and in coastal wetlands

The system design is premised on a proven, areal two-dimensional, finite-difference flow/transport model which is supported by an operational set of computer programs for input data management and model output interpretation. The purposes of the project are (1) to demonstrate the utility of the model for providing useful highway design information, (2) to develop guidelines and procedures for using the simulation system for evaluation, analysis, and optimal design of highway crossings of floodplain and coastal wetland areas, and (3) to identify improvements which can be effected in the simulation system to better serve the needs of highway design engineers. Two case study model implementations, being conducted to demonstrate the simulation system and modeling procedure, are presented and discussed briefly.

Conference Paper