Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Ecosystems”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Climatic correlates of white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Whitebark pine, a foundation species at tree line in the Western U.S. and Canada, has declined due to native mountain pine beetle epidemics, wildfire, and white pine blister rust. These declines are concerning for the multitude of ecosystem and human benefits provided by this species. Understanding climatic correlates associated with spread is needed to successfully manage impacts from forest pathogens. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem since 2000 mountain pine beetles have killed 75 percent of the mature cone-bearing trees, and 40.9 percent of monitored trees have been infected with white pine blister rust. We identified models of white pine blister rust infection that indicate an August and September interaction between relative humidity and temperature were better predictors of white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine than location and site characteristics in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The climate conditions conducive to white pine blister rust occur throughout the ecosystem, but larger trees in relatively warm and humid conditions were more likely to be infected between 2000 and 2018. We mapped the infection probability over the past two decades to identify coarse-scale patterns of climate conditions conducive to white pine blister rust infection in whitebark pine.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

An intertebrate ecosystem engineer likely covered under the umbrella of sage-grouse conservation

Conservation practitioners often rely on areas designed to protect species of greatest conservation priority to also conserve co-occurring species (i.e., the umbrella species concept). The extent to which vertebrate species may serve as suitable umbrellas for invertebrate species, however, has rarely been explored. Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus spp.) have high conservation priority throughout much of the rangelands of western North America and are considered an umbrella species through which the conservation of entire rangeland ecosystems can be accomplished. Harvester ants are ecosystem engineers and play important roles in the maintenance and function of rangeland ecosystems. We compared indices of the abundance of western harvester ants ( Pogonomyrmex occidentalis ) and Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) at 72 sites in central Wyoming, USA, in 2012. The abundance of harvester ant mounds was best predicted by a regression model that included a combination of local habitat characteristics and the abundance of sage-grouse. When controlling for habitat-related factors, areas with higher abundances of sage-grouse pellets (an index of sage-grouse abundance and/or habitat use) had higher abundances of ant mounds than areas with lower abundances of sage-grouse pellets. The causal mechanism underlying this positive relationship between sage-grouse and ant mound abundance at the fine scale could be indirect (e.g., both species prefer similar environmental conditions) or direct (e.g., sage-grouse prefer areas with a high abundance of ant mounds because ants are an important prey item during certain life stages). We observed no relationship between a broad-scale index of breeding sage-grouse density and the abundance of ant mounds. We suspect that consideration of the nonbreeding habitat of sage-grouse and finer-scale measures of sagegrouse abundance are critical to the utility of sage-grouse as an umbrella species for the conservation of harvester ants and their important role in rangeland ecosystems.

Western North American Naturalist↗
USGS2017

Indicator-driven conservation planning across terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine ecosystems of the south Atlantic, USA

Systematic conservation planning, a widely used approach to identify priority lands and waters, uses efficient, defensible, and transparent methods aimed at conserving biodiversity and ecological systems. Limited financial resources and competing land uses can be major impediments to conservation; therefore, participation of diverse stakeholders in the planning process is advantageous to help address broad-scale threats and challenges of the 21st century. Although a broad extent is needed to identify core areas and corridors for fish and wildlife populations, a fine-scale resolution is needed to manage for multiple, interconnected ecosystems. Here, we developed a conservation plan using a systematic approach to promote landscape-level conservation within the extent of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Our objective was to identify the highest-ranked 30% of lands and waters within the South Atlantic deemed necessary to conserve ecological and cultural integrity for the 10 primary ecosystems of the southeastern United States. These environments varied from terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine. The planning process was driven by indicators of ecosystem integrity at a 4-ha resolution. We used the program Zonation and 28 indicators to optimize the identification of lands and waters to meet the stated objective. A novel part of our study was the prioritization of multiple ecosystems, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. The evaluation of indicator representation within prioritizations was a useful method to show where improvements could be made; some indicators dictated hotspots, some had a limited extent and were well represented, and others had a limited effect. Overall, we demonstrate that a broad-scale (408,276 km 2 of terrestrial and 411,239 km 2 of marine environments) conservation plan can be realized at a fine-scale resolution, which will allow implementation of the regional plan at a local level relevant to decision making.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2014

Quantifying and valuing ecosystem services: An application of ARIES to the San Pedro River basin, USA

A large body of research exists that identifies and values ecosystem services - the benefits that ecosystems provide to humans (MA, 2005) - and their underlying ecological processes. However, the development of software decision support tools that integrate ecology, economics and geography that can be independently used within the public, private, academic and NGO sectors is a more recent phenomenon (Ruhl et al., 2007; Daily et al., 2009). Spurred by growing demand for more sophisticated analysis of the social and economic consequences of land management decisions, the US Department of Interior - Bureau of Land Management (BLM) launched a pilot project with the US Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the usefulness and feasibility of ecosystem service assessment and valuation tools to provide inputs to decision-making. The project analysed ecosystem services in the US portion of the San Pedro River watershed, which includes the BLM-managed San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA), to improve the understanding of complex social and ecological relationships that transcend administrative divisions. The BLM manages some 99 million hectares, primarily in the western United States, and 283 million hectares of sub-surface mineral estate. BLM's multiple-use mission requires that it appropriately balance non-extractive uses such as habitat conservation, recreation and archaeological heritage protection and the extractive use of resources such as timber, oil and gas, coal, uranium, and other minerals.

Arizona↗
USGS2014

Valuing ecosystem services using benefit transfer: Separating credible and incredible approaches

Ecosystem goods and services are now widely recognized as the benefits that humans derive from the natural environment around them including abiotic (e.g. atmosphere) and biotic components. The work by Costanza et al. (1997) to value the world’s ecosystem services brought the concept of ecosystem service valuation to the attention of the world press and environmental economists working in the area of non-market valuation. The article’s US \$33 trillion estimate of these services, despite world GDP being only US \$18 trillion, was definitely headline grabbing. This ambitious effort was undertaken with reliance on transferring existing values per unit from other (often site specific) valuation studies. Benefit transfer (see Boyle and Bergstrom, 1992; Rosenberger and Loomis, 2000, 2001) involves transfers of values per unit from an area that has been valued using primary valuation methods such as contingent valuation, travel cost or hedonic property methods (Champ et al., 2003) to areas for which values are needed. Benefit transfer often provides a reasonable approximation of the benefit of unstudied ecosystem services based on transfer of benefits estimates per unit (per visitor day, per acre) from existing studies. An appropriate benefit transfer should be performed on the same spatial scale of analysis (e.g. reservoir to reservoir, city to city) as the original study. However, the reasonableness of benefit transfer may be strained when applying locally derived per acre values from studies of several thousand acres of a resource such as wetlands to hundreds of millions of acres of wetlands.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

Endangered species management and ecosystem restoration: Finding the common ground

Management actions to protect endangered species and conserve ecosystem function may not always be in precise alignment. Efforts to recover the California Ridgway’s Rail ( Rallus obsoletus obsoletus ; hereafter, California rail), a federally and state-listed species, and restoration of tidal marsh ecosystems in the San Francisco Bay estuary provide a prime example of habitat restoration that has conflicted with species conservation. On the brink of extinction from habitat loss and degradation, and non-native predators in the 1990s, California rail populations responded positively to introduction of a non-native plant, Atlantic cordgrass ( Spartina alterniflora ). California rail populations were in substantial decline when the non-native Spartina was initially introduced as part of efforts to recover tidal marshes. Subsequent hybridization with the native Pacific cordgrass ( Spartina foliosa ) boosted California rail populations by providing greater cover and increased habitat area. The hybrid cordgrass ( S. alterniflora × S. foliosa ) readily invaded tidal mudflats and channels, and both crowded out native tidal marsh plants and increased sediment accretion in the marsh plain. This resulted in modification of tidal marsh geomorphology, hydrology, productivity, and species composition. Our results show that denser California rail populations occur in invasive Spartina than in native Spartina in San Francisco Bay. Herbicide treatment between 2005 and 2012 removed invasive Spartina from open intertidal mud and preserved foraging habitat for shorebirds. However, removal of invasive Spartina caused substantial decreases in California rail populations. Unknown facets of California rail ecology, undesirable interim stages of tidal marsh restoration, and competing management objectives among stakeholders resulted in management planning for endangered species or ecosystem restoration that favored one goal over the other. We have examined this perceived conflict and propose strategies for moderating harmful effects of restoration while meeting the needs of both endangered species and the imperiled native marsh ecosystem.

California↗
USGS2017

Operationalizing the telecoupling framework for migratory species using the spatial subsidies approach to examine ecosystem services provided by Mexican free-tailed bats

Drivers of environmental change in one location can have profound effects on ecosystem services and human well-being in distant locations, often across international borders. The telecoupling provides a conceptual framework for describing these interactions—for example, locations can be defined as sending areas (sources of flows of ecosystem services, energy, or information) or receiving areas (recipients of flows). However, the ability to quantify feedbacks between ecosystem change in one area and societal benefits in other areas requires analytical approaches. We use spatial subsidies—an approach developed to measure the degree to which a migratory species’ ability to provide services in one location depends on habitat in another location—as an example of how telecoupling can be operationalized. Using the cotton pest control and ecotourism services of Mexican free-tailed bats as an example, we determined that of the 16 states in the United States and Mexico where the species resides, three states (Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado) are receiving areas, while the rest of the states are sending areas. In addition, the magnitude of spatial subsidy can be used as an indicator of the degree to which different locations are telecoupled to other locations. In this example, the Mexican free-tailed bat ecosystem services to cotton production and ecotourism in Texas and New Mexico are heavily dependent on winter habitat in four states in central and southern Mexico. In sum, spatial subsidies can be used to operationalize the telecoupling conceptual framework by identifying sending and receiving areas, and by indicating the degree to which locations are telecoupled to other locations.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2024

Natural resource management confronts the growing scale and severity of ecosystem responses to drought and wildfire

Intensification of drought and wildfire associated with climate change has triggered widespread ecosystem stress and transformation. Natural resource managers are on the frontline of these changes, yet their perspectives on whether management actions match the scale and align with the severity of ecosystem responses to improve outcomes are not well understood. To provide new insight, a new conceptual framework that linked scale and severity was tested by conducting interviews and surveys of staff associated with natural resource management on the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States (U.S.), which contains the highest concentration of public lands in the contiguous U.S. Results indicate that drought was experienced more frequently than wildfire, and both stressors were happening at large scales and moderate to abrupt timeframes with a high degree of impact to ecosystems. Ecosystem responses were perceived to increase in severity under future climate change with limited capacity to recover, and a majority of resource managers expressed that they had low control to shape these trajectories. Although management strategies to address drought and wildfire were well recognized, adaptation-specific actions remained unclear or had limited financial and staffing resources to support implementation. Additional effort could help close a growing misalignment between management actions and natural resource responses, including effective science communication, refined information tailored to meet adaptation goals at management-relevant spatiotemporal scales, and opportunities for adaptive management that can proactively address intensification of drought and wildfire.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2006

Educating veterinarians for careers in free-ranging wildlife medicine and ecosystem health

In the last 10 years, the field of zoological medicine has seen an expansive broadening into the arenas of free-ranging wildlife, conservation medicine, and ecosystem health. During the spring/summer of 2005, we prepared and disseminated a survey designed to identify training and educational needs for individuals entering the wildlife medicine and ecosystem health fields. Our data revealed that few wildlife veterinarians believe that the training they received in veterinary school adequately prepared them to acquire and succeed in their field. Wildlife veterinarians and their employers ranked mentorship with an experienced wildlife veterinarian, training in leadership and communication, courses and externships in wildlife health, and additional formal training beyond the veterinary degree as important in preparation for success. Employers, wildlife veterinarians, and job seekers alike reported that understanding and maintaining ecosystem health is a key component of the wildlife veterinarian's job description, as it is critical to protecting animal health, including human health. Today's wildlife veterinarians are a new type of transdisciplinary professional; they practice medicine in their communities and hold titles in every level of government and academia. It is time that we integrate ecosystem health into our curricula to nurture and enhance an expansive way of looking at veterinary medicine and to ensure that veterinary graduates are prepared to excel in this new and complex world, in which the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and people are interdependent.

Journal of Veterinary Medical Education↗
USGS2011

Setting limits: Using air pollution thresholds to protect and restore US ecosystems

More than four decades of research provide unequivocal evidence that sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury pollution have altered, and will continue to alter, our nation's lands and waters. The emission and deposition of air pollutants harm native plants and animals, degrade water quality, affect forest productivity, and are damaging to human health. Many air quality policies limit emissions at the source but these control measures do not always consider ecosystem impacts. Air pollution thresholds at which ecological effects are observed, such as critical loads, are effective tools for assessing the impacts of air pollution on essential ecosystem services and for informing public policy. U.S. ecosystems can be more effectively protected and restored by using a combination of emissions-based approaches and science-based thresholds of ecosystem damage.

Issues in Ecology↗
USGS1996

Mediterranean-type ecosystems: the influence of biodiversity on their functioning

Ecosystems in the Mediterranean-climate regions of the world have served as a unit for comparative ecological studies for over two decades. The cohesiveness of research in this set of widely distributed regions rests on the similarity of the climates where they occur, and the identifiable convergence in elements of their vegetation structure (Di Castri and Mooney 1973). In this chapter we review functional aspects of what have come to be known as Mediterranean-type ecosystems (METs) in the context of a concerned global interest in the sustainability of the human environment and its dependence on biological diversity. The approach we adopt here is to look for evidence that this biodiversity, for which some MTEs are renowned (Cowling, 1992; Hobbs, 1992), has an influence on processes which are important both for the maintenance of natural systems, and for providing "ecosystem services" with human utility. Almost a century ago, Schimper (1903) recognized the biological similarities between five widely separated regions characterized by Mediterranean-type climates, and much comparative work has been done on that basis since. These regions comprise the Mediterranean basin itself, a major portion of California, central Chile, the southwestern and southern extremities of South Africa, and parts of southwestern and southern Australia (Figure 7.1). The first attention paid to MTEs in terms of quantitative ecological research arose out of the International Biological Programme (IBP) of the 1960s and 1970s. Those efforts focused on comparisons between the Chilean and Californian systems (Mooney 1977), and dealt with parallel models of ecosystem processes, especially water flux (Fuentes et al 1995). Because of the already perceived similarities between vegetation in these and the other three regions, the project was soon extended to include all five regions. The first broad comparative overview was published as an anthology which considered the origins and the convergent evolution of MTE components (Di Castri and Mooney 1973). Although the currently accepted classifications of the MTEs is to some extent artificial, it does provide a basis for comparative work, as well as placing mild, temperate winter rainfall regions in perspective with other system types, such as forests, arid lands and even savannas. It is against this backdrop that the MTE research collegium has grown, giving rise to the organizational structure known as ISOMED (the International Society of Mediterranean Ecologists), which has convened regular conferences under the label MEDECOS, plus a number of extra meetings on specific topics (Table 7.1). One of the more recent in this series of MTE meetings was convened under the auspices of ICSU's Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) (see Table 7.1), and dealt with the questions about the functional value of biodiversity. This chapter is based on that meeting and its proceedings (Richardson and Cowling 1993); David and Richardson 1995), and is a distillation of input by teams of ecologists from each of the five regions.

Book chapter↗
USGS2009

Sustainable wetland management and support of ecosystem services

This article is a follow-up on a previous piece in the National Wetlands Newsletter in which we outlined problems associated with a static, local approach to wetland management versus an alternative that proposes a temporal and geomorphic approach (Euliss et al. 2009). We extend that concept by drawing on companion papers recently published in the journal Wetlands (Euliss et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2008). Here we highlight reasons for the failure of many managed wetlands to provide a suite of ecosystem services (e.g., carbon storage, diodiversity, ground-water recharge, contaminant filtering, floodwater storage). Our principal theme is that wetland management is best approached by giving consideration to the hydrogeomorphic processes that maintain productive ecosystems and by removing physical and social impediments to those processes. Traditional management actions are often oriented toward maintaining static conditions in wetlands without considering the temporal cycles that wetlands need to undergo or achieve productivity for specific groups of wildlife, such as waterfowl. Possibly more often, a manager's ability to influence hydrogeomorphic processes is restricted by activities in surrounding watersheds. These could be dams, for example, which do not allow management of flood-pulse processes essential to productivity of riparian systems. In most cases, sediments and nutrients associated with land use in contributing watersheds complicate management of wetlands for a suite of services, including wildlife. Economic or policy forces far-removed from a wetland often interact to prevent occurrence of basic ecosystem processes. Our message is consistent with recommendation of supply-side sustainability of Allen et al. (2002) in which ecosystems are managed "for the system that produces outputs rather than the outputs themselves."

National Wetlands Newsletter↗
USGS2013

Estimating ecosystem carbon stocks at Redwood National and State Parks

Accounting for ecosystem carbon is increasingly important for park managers. In this case study we present our efforts to estimate carbon stocks and the effects of management on carbon stocks for Redwood National and State Parks in northern California. Using currently available information, we estimate that on average these parks’ soils contain approximately 89 tons of carbon per acre (200 Mg C per ha), while vegetation contains about 130 tons C per acre (300 Mg C per ha). estoration activities at the parks (logging-road removal, second-growth forest management) were shown to initially reduce ecosystem carbon, but may provide for enhanced ecosystem carbon storage over the long term. We highlight currently available tools that could be used to estimate ecosystem carbon at other units of the National Park System.

California↗
USGS1994

Ecological perspective: Linking ecology, GIS, and remote sensing to ecosystem management

Awareness of significant human impacts on the ecology of Earth's landscapes is not new (Thomas 1956). Over the past decade (Forman and Godron 1986, Urban et a1. 1987) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies have supported a rapid rise in landscape.stale research. The heightened recognition within the research community of the ecological linkages between local sites and larger spatial scales has spawned increasing calls for more holistic management of landscapes (Noss 1983, Harris 1984, Risser 1985, Norse et al. 1986, Agee and Johnson 1988, Franklin 1989, Brooks and Grant 1992, Endangered Species Update-Special Issue 1993, Crow 1994, Grumbine 1994). As a result agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and National Park Service are now converging on "ecosystem management" as a new paradigm to sustainably manage wildlands and maintain biodiversity. However, as this transition occurs, several impediments to implementation of this new paradigm persist, including (1) significant uncenainty among many land managers about the definition and goals of ecosystem management, (2) inadequate ecological information on the past and present processes and structural conditions of target ecosystems, (3) insufficient experience on the part of land managers with the rapidly diversifying array of GIS and remote sensing tools to effectively use them to support ecology-based land management, and (4) a paucity of intimate, long-term relationships between people (including land managers) and the particular landscape communities to which they belong. This chapter provides an ecological perspective on these issues as applied to ecosystem management in a southwestern U.S. landscape.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Lake Michigan offshore ecosystem structure and food web changes from 1987 to 2008

Ecosystems undergo dynamic changes owing to species invasions, fisheries management decisions, landscape modifications, and nutrient inputs. At Lake Michigan, new invaders (e.g., dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena spp.), spiny water flea ( Bythotrephes longimanus ), round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus )) have proliferated and altered energy transfer pathways, while nutrient concentrations and stocking rates to support fisheries have changed. We developed an ecosystem model to describe food web structure in 1987 and ran simulations through 2008 to evaluate changes in biomass of functional groups, predator consumption, and effects of recently invading species. Keystone functional groups from 1987 were identified as Mysis , burbot ( Lota lota ), phytoplankton, alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), nonpredatory cladocerans, and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Simulations predicted biomass reductions across all trophic levels and predicted biomasses fit observed trends for most functional groups. The effects of invasive species (e.g., dreissenid grazing) increased across simulation years, but were difficult to disentangle from other changes (e.g., declining offshore nutrient concentrations). In total, our model effectively represented recent changes to the Lake Michigan ecosystem and provides an ecosystem-based tool for exploring future resource management scenarios.

Lake Michigan↗
USGS2003

Management implications of the ecology of free-roaming horses in semiarid ecosystems of the western United States

Compared to other ungulates of North America, free - roaming horses ( Equus caballus ) possess a unique evolutionary history that has given rise to a distinct suite of behavioral, morphological, and physiological traits. Because of their unique combination of cecal digestion, an elongate head with flexible lips, and non-uniform use of the landscape, horses represent a unique disturbance agent in semi-arid ecosystems of the western United States . Consequently, it is inappropriate to assume that influences of horses on the structure, composition, function, and pattern of arid and semi-arid ecosystems will mirror influences of cattle or other artiodactyls. Although management areas for free - roaming horses occupy 18.6 million ha of land across western North America, we know relatively little about how western ecosystems and their components have responded to this uniquely managed ungulate. I draw on my research of horse habitats in the western Great Basin (U.S.A.) to examine predictions of horses ' unique influence, and advocate for continued research to refine our understanding of synecological relationships among horses and diverse ecosystem components in arid and semi-arid regions.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS2009

An ecosystem services framework for multidisciplinary research in the Colorado River headwaters

A rapidly spreading Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic is killing lodgepole pine forest in the Rocky Mountains, causing landscape change on a massive scale. Approximately 1.5 million acres of lodgepoledominated forest is already dead or dying in Colorado, the infestation is still spreading rapidly, and it is expected that in excess of 90 percent of all lodgepole forest will ultimately be killed. Drought conditions combined with dramatically reduced foliar moisture content due to stress or mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle have combined to elevate the probability of large fires throughout the Colorado River headwaters. Large numbers of homes in the wildland-urban interface, an extensive water supply infrastructure, and a local economy driven largely by recreational tourism make the potential costs associated with such a fire very large. Any assessment of fire risk for strategic planning of pre-fire management actions must consider these and a host of other important socioeconomic benefits derived from the Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine Forest ecosystem. This paper presents a plan to focus U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) multidisciplinary fire/beetle-related research in the Colorado River headwaters within a framework that integrates a wide variety of discipline-specific research to assess and value the full range of ecosystem services provided by the Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine Forest ecosystem. Baseline, unburned conditions will be compared with a hypothetical, fully burned scenario to (a) identify where services would be most severely impacted, and (b) quantify potential economic losses. Collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service will further yield a distributed model of fire probability that can be used in combination with the ecosystem service valuation to develop comprehensive, distributed maps of fire risk in the Upper Colorado River Basin. These maps will be intended for use by stakeholders as a strategic planning tool for pre-fire management activities and can be updated and improved adaptively on an annual basis as tree mortality, climatic conditions, and management actions unfold.

Conference Paper↗