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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

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At least 469 records · Page 26Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Response of diatoms and silicoflagellates to climate change in the Santa Barbara Basin during the past 250 years and the rise of the toxic diatom Pseudo-nitzschia australis

Diatoms and silicoflagellate assemblages were examined in two year-increments of varved samples spanning the interval from 1748 through 2007 in Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) box core SBBC0806 to determine the timing and impact of possible 20th century warming on several different components of the plankton. Diatoms (Thalassionema nitzschioides =TN) and silicoflagellates (Distephanus speculum s.l. =DS) indicative of cooler waters and a shallow thermocline begin to decline in the 1920s and persistently compose a lower percentage of the assemblage in the SBB by about 1940. Prior to 1940, TN constituted on average ~30% of the Chaetoceros-free diatom sediment assemblage and DS on average ~36% of the silicoflagellate assemblage. Between 1940 and 1996 these relative abundances were ~20% (TN) and ~8% (DS). These results are consistent with results from planktonic foraminifera and radiolarians that indicate an influence of 20th century warming on marine ecosystems before most scientific observations began. Cooling of surface waters coincident with the one of the strongest La Niña events of the 20th century (and a return to negative PDO conditions) in late 1998 brought about a return to pre-1940 values of these cool water taxa (TN ~31%, DS ~25%). However, this recent regional cooling appears to have been accompanied by profound changes in the diatom assemblage. Pseudo-nitzschia australis, and Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, diatom species associated with domoic acid, a neurotoxin that causes shellfish poisoning and marine mammal deaths, rapidly became dominant in the SBB sediment record at the time of the regional cooling (1999) and increased substantially in numbers as a bloom-forming taxon (relative to Chaetoceros spores) in 2003. Prior to 2003 diatom blooms recorded in the SBB sediment record consisted predominantly of Chaetoceros spores and less commonly of Rhizosolenia-related species (Neocalyptrella robusta and R. setigera). Fecal pellets dominated by valves of P. australis, however, were particularly abundant in both the 2003 and 2006 samples, coincident with recorded incidents of domoic acid increase and widespread shellfish poisoning in the SBB.

Quaternary International↗
USGS2010

Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14 C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

Nevada↗
USGS2019

Potential for increased inundation in flood-prone regions of southeast Florida in response to climate and sea-level changes in Broward County, Florida, 2060–69

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Broward County Environmental Planning and Resilience Division, has developed county-scale and local-scale groundwater/surface-water models to study the potential for increased inundation and flooding in eastern Broward County that are due to changes in future climate and sea-level rise. These models were constructed by using MODFLOW 2005, with the surface-water system represented by using the Surface-Water Routing process and a new Urban Runoff process. The local-scale model allowed the use of finer grid resolution in a selected area of the county, whereas the county-scale model provided boundary conditions for the local-scale model and insight into the hydrologic behavior of the larger system. The aquifer layering, properties, and boundaries relied heavily on a previous three-dimensional variable-density solute-transport model of the same area developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The surface-water system within these new models actively simulates a part of the extensive canal network by using level-pool routing and active structure operations within the Surface-Water Routing process. These models were used to simulate a historical base-case period (1990–99) by using measured data and regional climate model rainfall and potential evapotranspiration output. The simulated flow and water-level results generally captured the behavior of the hydrologic system. A future period (2060–69) was simulated by using regional climate model rainfall and potential evapotranspiration output representing a wetter and drier future and low, intermediate, and high sea-level rise projections. The results were used to evaluate the potential effects on the surface-water drainage system, coastal-structure operation, and wet-season groundwater levels. Future period simulations using the county-scale model indicate that (1) the effects of the changing climate and sea level are much more evident in eastern and coastal areas of Broward County compared to western areas, with increases in groundwater level nearly equivalent to sea-level rise; (2) coastal groundwater-level increases are distributed farther inland in the wetter future scenarios than in the drier future scenarios; (3) water levels at the westernmost groundwater station locations exhibited little change caused by sea-level rise and showed more dependence on changes in precipitation; (4) there was a reduced west-to-east groundwater gradient with increasing sea-level rise; and (5) increased downstream tidal stage at the S–13 structure resulted in increased reliance on the pump to control upstream inland canal stages. Future simulations using the local-scale model indicate similar behavior as seen in the county-scale model: (1) the coastal areas exhibited the largest impacts in groundwater levels in the future scenarios; (2) the westernmost, interior areas exhibited little change during the future scenarios; and (3) there was an increased reliance on the pump at the S–13 coastal structure but to a lesser extent than indicated in the county-scale model because of the reduced temporal scale of the local-scale model. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were simulated to evaluate the county-scale and local-scale models’ ability to simulate hydrologic changes. Alterations to S–13 pump operations within the county-scale model were tested, and results indicate a reduced effect of sea-level rise inland of the control structure, but the affected area is spatially limited. The concept of using pumps to reduce the local groundwater levels in two neighborhood-sized areas was tested by using the local-scale model. The MODFLOW 2005 Drain package was used to remove groundwater by using drainage elevations set to zero, 1 foot, and 2 feet above average wet-season groundwater levels. Area 1 was well connected to coastal boundaries, and a high rate of groundwater removal was required, whereas the rate of groundwater removal required was greatly reduced in Area 2, which is less connected to tidal boundaries. Water for these scenarios was assumed to be pumped to tide with no downstream effects.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Hydrologic response of desert wetlands to Holocene climate change: preliminary results from the Soda Springs area, Mojave National Preserve, California

Desert wetlands are common features in arid environments and include a variety of hydrologic facies, including seeps, springs, marshes, wet meadows, ponds, and spring pools. Wet ground conditions and dense stands of vegetation in these settings combine to trap eolian, alluvial, and fluvial sediments that accumulate over time. The resulting deposits are collectively called ground-water discharge (GWD) deposits, and contain information on how small desert watersheds responded to climate change in the past. Most GWD studies in the southwestern U.S. have focused on the late Pleistocene because the Holocene was too dry to support the extensive wetland systems that were so pervasive just a few millennia earlier. Here we describe the results of a pilot project that involves coring extant wetlands and analyzing the sedimentology and microfauna of the recovered sediment to infer Holocene hydrologic conditions. In 2011, a series of cores were taken near wetlands situated along the western margin of the Soda Lake basin in the Mojave National Preserve of southern California. The core sediments appear to show that the wetlands responded to the relatively minor climate fluctuations that characterized the Holocene. However, our analysis was limited by relatively low sediment recovery (which only averaged 70-80%) and a general paucity of datable materials in the cores. Additional studies aimed at improving recovery and developing new techniques for concentrating plant microfossils (plant remains that are <150 m in diameter) for radiocarbon dating are ongoing.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2019

Pleistocene and Holocene landscape development of the South Platte River Corridor, Northeastern Colorado

This report provides a synthesis of geologic mapping and geochronologic research along the South Platte River between the town of Masters and the city of Fort Morgan, northeastern Colorado. This work was undertaken to better understand landscape development along this part of the river corridor. The focus is on times of rapid change within the fluvial system that had a marked effect on the landscape. The study area is susceptible to drought, which destabilizes vegetation and makes the landscape vulnerable to eolian activity. This is reflected in a landscape that is largely covered by eolian sand and lesser amounts of loess. Past glaciation of the river’s headwaters had a major influence on river discharge and sediment supply, as have major flood events particularly on unglaciated tributaries heading on the piedmont. In the mapping area, fluvial deposits of the South Platte River system span the Pliocene and early Pleistocene(?) deposits of Nussbaum Alluvium to present-day deposits of the active channel and floodplain. Results of the study indicate that along this stretch of the South Platte River, the early Pleistocene and first half of the middle Pleistocene were times of net incision, periodically interrupted by episodes of aggradation that resulted in deposition of alluvium that has been correlated to Rocky Flats Alluvium, Verdos Alluvium, and Slocum Alluvium. Net incision between depositional events formed a series of poorly preserved terrace deposits along the valley sides that are now largely covered by eolian deposits. Sometime after about 380 thousand years, the river cut a deep paleovalley into Upper Cretaceous Pierre Shale that was then filled with a thick sequence of inferred Louviers Alluvium (coeval with Bull Lake glaciation). Net aggradation continued during the late Pleistocene, resulting in burial of the Louviers paleovalley with a thick sequence of mainstream and sidestream Broadway Alluvium (coeval with Pinedale glaciation). Subsequent incision during the late Pleistocene–Holocene transition formed the Kersey (Broadway) terrace, whose riser forms a prominent bluff on the south side of the river valley. This episode of incision spanned a very short period and was followed by renewed aggradation that deposited the next-lower terrace alluvium (Kuner terrace alluvium). The Kuner terrace level was probably abandoned sometime around the beginning of the middle Holocene. Low terraces on the valley floor indicate that the river has been primarily cutting and backfilling laterally rather than incising during the late Holocene. Synthesis of geologic mapping and chronologic data generated in this study indicate that the South Platte River in northeastern Colorado likely was highly sensitive to rapidly changing environmental conditions or crossed threshold conditions that triggered rapid geomorphic response during major climate changes associated with the late Pleistocene–Holocene transition. Historical times have been another period marked by rapid incision, reflected by gully incision and headward erosion in tributary valleys draining the north side of the South Platte River. This historical erosion could be related at least in part to extensive construction of irrigation ditches and reservoirs in the late 1800s–early 1900s, which altered drainage paths and groundwater flow and could have amplified natural factors such as climate change or intrinsic geomorphic instabilities within the system.

Colorado↗
USGS2023

Extensive regional variation in the phenology of insects and their response to temperature across North America

Climate change models often assume similar responses to temperatures across the range of a species, but local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity can lead plants and animals to respond differently to temperature in different parts of their range. To date, there have been few tests of this assumption at the scale of continents, so it is unclear if this is a large-scale problem. Here, we examined the assumption that insect taxa show similar responses to temperature at 96 sites in grassy habitats across North America. We sampled insects with Malaise traps during 2019–2021 ( N = 1041 samples) and examined the biomass of insects in relation to temperature and time of season. Our samples mostly contained Diptera (33%), Lepidoptera (19%), Hymenoptera (18%), and Coleoptera (10%). We found strong regional differences in the phenology of insects and their response to temperature, even within the same taxonomic group, habitat type, and time of season. For example, the biomass of nematoceran flies increased across the season in the central part of the continent, but it only showed a small increase in the Northeast and a seasonal decline in the Southeast and West. At a smaller scale, insect biomass at different traps operating on the same days was correlated up to ~75 km apart. Large-scale geographic and phenological variation in insect biomass and abundance has not been studied well, and it is a major source of controversy in previous analyses of insect declines that have aggregated studies from different locations and time periods. Our study illustrates that large-scale predictions about changes in insect populations, and their causes, will need to incorporate regional and taxonomic differences in the response to temperature.

Ecology↗
USGS2018

Landscape-scale variation in canopy water content of giant sequoias during drought

Recent drought (2012–2016) caused unprecedented foliage dieback in giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ), a species endemic to the western slope of the southern Sierra Nevada in central California. As part of an effort to understand and map sequoia response to droughts, we studied the patterns of remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC), both within and among sequoia groves in two successive years during the drought period (2015 and 2016). Our aims were: (1) to quantify giant sequoia responses to severe drought stress at a landscape scale using CWC as an indicator of crown foliage status, and (2) to estimate the effect of environmental correlates that mediate CWC change within and among giant sequoia groves. We utilized airborne high fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory to assess giant sequoia foliage status during 2015 and 2016 of the 2012–2016 droughts. A series of statistical models were generated to classify giant sequoias and to map their location in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) and vicinity. We explored the environmental correlates and the spatial patterns of CWC change at the landscape scale. The mapped CWC was highly variable throughout the landscape during the two observation years, and proved to be most closely related to geological substrates, topography, and site-specific water balance. While there was an overall net gain in sequoia CWC between 2015 and 2016, certain locations (lower elevations, steeper slopes, areas more distant from surface water sources, and areas with greater climate water deficit) showed CWC losses. In addition, we found greater CWC loss in shorter sequoias and those growing in areas with lower sequoia stem densities. Our results suggest that CWC change indicates sequoia response to droughts across landscapes. Long-term monitoring of giant sequoia CWC will likely be useful for modeling and predicting their population-level response to future climate change.

California↗
USGS2023

Body size predicts the rate of contemporary morphological change in birds

Across the globe, bird morphology is changing rapidly. Although trajectories of change are frequently consistent across studies, rates of change among species vary in magnitude—a phenomenon that remains unexplained. By analyzing two independently collected datasets demonstrating consistent changes in morphology in 129 species, we show that rates of phenotypic change are negatively correlated with body size—that is, smaller birds are changing faster. Why smaller-bodied species are changing faster is unknown, but we found little support for the hypothesis that generation length explains variation in the rates of change. Rather, body size appears to be a primary mediator of species’ phenotypic responses to contemporary climatic change and should be considered when testing hypotheses about the drivers of change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (P↗
USGS1997

Complex response of a midcontinent north America drainage system to late Wisconsinan sedimentation

The geomorphic evolution of Mud Creek basin in eastern Iowa, U.S.A. serves to illustrate how geomorphic influences such as sediment supply, valley gradient, climate, and vegetation are recorded in the alluvial stratigraphic record. Sediment supply to the fluvial system increased significantly during the late Wisconsinan through a combination of periglacial erosion and loess accumulation. Subsequent evolution of the Holocene alluvial stratigraphic record reflects long-term routing of the late Wisconsinan sediment through the drainage basin in a series of cut-and-fill cycles whose timing was influenced by hydrologic response to change in climate and vegetation. When viewed in a regional context, the alluvial stratigraphic record appears to reflect a long-term complex response of the fluvial system to increased sediment supply during the late Wisconsinan. Hydrologic and sediment-supply changes accompanying the spread of Euroamerican agriculture to the basin in the 1800s dramatically upset trends in sedimentation and channel behavior established during the Holocene.

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗
USGS2016

Climate Change Science Activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has actively pursued research in the effects of climate change on the hydrology of New England. Ongoing focus areas of climate change science activities of the USGS in New England include the following: &bull; Hydrologic climate-response data (initiating or expanding long-term hydrologic climate-response data collection networks to detect and monitor climate-related changes in hydrology) &bull; Relations between historical climatic and hydrologic variation (investigating historic relations between long-term climatic variation and hydrologic variation and connecting these relations to future conditions as forecasted by the Interagency Panel on Climate Change (Nakićenović and others, 2000) &bull; Hydrologic change on natural and human (incorporating climate change scenarios into assessments of how flows in streams or water levels in aquifers may change) &bull; Relations between climatic and hydrologic variation (characterizing impacts of climate change on floods and droughts, the long-term availability of water supplies for societal and natural uses in response to climate changes) &bull; Developing tools to forecast ecosystem change and water resources management (developing regionally consistent tools for forecasting ecosystem change and resource management) This fact sheet presents recent climate change investigations of the USGS in New England using selected recent publications. These publications highlight the broad spectrum of expertise and commitment to understanding the relations of climate change and water resources in New England.

New England↗
USGS2015

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2005

Species-energy relationship in the deep sea: A test using the Quaternary fossil record

Little is known about the processes regulating species richness in deep-sea communities. Here we take advantage of natural experiments involving climate change to test whether predictions of the species-energy hypothesis hold in the deep sea. In addition, we test for the relationship between temperature and species richness predicted by a recent model based on biochemical kinetics of metabolism. Using the deep-sea fossil record of benthic foraminifera and statistical meta-analyses of temperature-richness and productivity-richness relationships in 10 deep-sea cores, we show that temperature but not productivity is a significant predictor of species richness over the past c. 130 000 years. Our results not only show that the temperature-richness relationship in the deep-sea is remarkably similar to that found in terrestrial and shallow marine habitats, but also that species richness tracks temperature change over geological time, at least on scales of c. 100 000 years. Thus, predicting biotic response to global climate change in the deep sea would require better understanding of how temperature regulates the occurrences and geographical ranges of species. ??2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2011

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010&ndash;2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

California↗
USGS2017

Reconstructing the response of C3 and C4 plants to decadal-scale climate change during the late Pleistocene in southern Illinois using isotopic analyses of calcified rootlets

The ??13C and ??18O values of well-preserved carbonate rhizoliths (CRs) provide detailed insights into changes in the abundance of C3 and C4 plants in response to approximately decadal-scale changes in growing-season climate. We performed stable isotope analyses on 35-40 CRs sampled at 1-cm intervals from an 18-cm-thick paleosol formed in southern Illinois during Wisconsin interstadial 2. Minimum ??13C values show little variation with depth, whereas maximum values vary dramatically, and average values show noticeable variability; maximum ??18O values vary less than the minimum ??18O values. These findings indicate that a diverse and stable C3 flora with a limited number of C4 grass species prevailed during this interval, and suggest that the maximum growing-season temperatures were relatively stable, but minimum growing-season temperatures varied considerably. Two general patterns characterize the relationships between the ??13C and ??18O values obtained from the 1-cm samples. In some cases, low ??13C values correspond to low ??18O values and high ??13C values correspond to high ??18O values, suggesting that cooler growing-season temperatures favored C3 and warmer growing-season temperatures favored C4 plants. In other cases, low ??13C values correspond to high ??18O values, likely suggesting that wetter growing-season conditions were favorable to C3 plants. The high density of well-preserved CRs in this paleosol provides a unique opportunity to study detailed ecological responses to high-resolution variability in growing-season climate. ?? 2006 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2024

Linking temperature sensitivity of mangrove communities, populations and individuals across a tropical-temperate transitional zone

Climate change is reshaping coastal wetlands worldwide, driving ecosystem shifts like mangrove poleward expansion into saltmarshes in tropical-temperate transitional zones. Though warming is recognized as the primary driver, a lack of detailed field studies limits our ability to predict mangrove responses to rapid climate warming. Here, we characterized how mangroves vary across a temperature gradient at 18 sites along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast (USA). We used minimum air temperature ( T min ) derived from daily data from 1989 to 2021 as the independent variable and applied plot-based and synoptic approaches to quantify species-specific mangrove variation at community, population, and individual levels. We then used these results to spatially project future mangrove ecosystem properties under multiple warming scenarios. Across the T min gradient from −10.8 to −1.4°C, mangrove canopy height and coverage ranged from 0.4 to 11.5 m and 15% to 98%, respectively, with both exhibiting sigmoidal increases with T min . Estimated mangrove aboveground biomass ranged from 0 to 496.7 Mg/ha and showed a positive linear relationship with T min due both to the tall tree stratum's increased biomass per tree and higher abundance. While the population abundance and coverage of Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa had positive linear relationships with T min , Avicennia germinans exhibited a significant quadratic relationship, reflecting the higher freeze tolerance of this species. Such tolerance may stem from A. germinans ' higher morphological plasticity observed at the individual level, adapting to cold stress by exhibiting a more shrub-like architecture at colder sites. Based on these field-derived quantitative relationships, we projected substantial increases in mangrove coverage and canopy height near current range limits, with tall A. germinans dominating in the north and R. mangle dominating the centre and south of the study region. Synthesis. To better predict the ecological consequences in coastal wetlands under future climate change, it is essential to understand how mangroves respond to winter temperature regimes across a temperature gradient. Collectively, these cross-level and species-specific results advance our understanding of mangrove temperature sensitivity and provide information about the future of coastal wetland structure and function in response to a changing climate.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Blue snowflakes in a warming world: Karner blue butterfly climate change vulnerability synthesis and best practices for adaptation

This report—developed at the request of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service-led Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Team by Recovery Team members and partners—provides a Karner blue butterfly climate change vulnerability synthesis, explores a range of potential responses, and presents best practices for climate change-informed conservation of the species. The three decades since the Karner blue butterfly’s (Lycaeides [Plebejus] melissa samuelis Nabokov) listing as federally endangered in the United States have seen a diverse and dedicated research and management community coalesce around the species’ recovery. This geographically expansive conservation collaboration has broken new ground for threatened and endangered species recovery. Many Karner blue recovery areas are making steady progress towards recovery goals, but some are not. An extremely hot and dry 2012, perhaps aided by adverse longer-term climate trends such as declining snow cover, extirpated the Karner blue from Indiana Dunes National Park and the surrounding Indiana Dunes Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Unit—the southernmost recovery unit and once host to one of the species’ largest populations—as well as from northwest Ohio. Because of the fundamental challenge that climate change represents to Karner blue butterfly recovery and of the general need for endangered species conservation plans to better address climate change, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service-led Karner Blue Butterfly Recovery Team tasked a subset of the team to: Explore the species’ climate change sensitivity and adaptive capacity, review ongoing and projected climate change across the Karner blue range and associated uncertainties, and develop and suggest best practices concerning long-term adaptation strategies. Consistent with that mandate, this report synthesizes what is known about Karner blue climate change vulnerability and applies current thinking in climate change adaptation to help foster strategic, long-term, climate change-informed Karner blue recovery and conservation. It develops and explores a range of potential climate change-informed butterfly- and habitat-stewardship responses, using the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework to foster a broad range of approaches, and provides guidance regarding how they may be pursued. The report also provides suggestions for improving the climate change-exposure component of Karner blue vulnerability assessment.

Natural Resource Report↗