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USGS2024

The economics of decarbonizing Costa Rica's agriculture, forestry and other land uses sectors

In 2018, Costa Rica demonstrated its commitment to the Paris Agreement and published its Decarbonization Plan for achieving zero net emissions by the year 2050. We evaluate the impacts of the country's strategy for decarbonizing its Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sectors by coupling the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework with high-resolution spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM+ESM). Our results show that decarbonization of AFOLU would simultaneously enhance carbon storage, water purification, water regulation and erosion mitigation ecosystem services. Moreover, the positive cumulative wealth impact of decarbonization would be approximately US$7.27 billion by 2050 while lifting an additional 3810 individuals out of poverty. From a public investment perspective, decarbonization would have a fiscally neutral impact with the economic benefits sufficient in magnitude to off-set policy implementation costs and generate economic returns of over US$852 million when changes in natural capital stocks and environmental quality are considered. This application to Costa Rica is the first integrated economy-wide analysis of a growing number of decarbonization plans globally. The IEEM+ESM approach provides an integrated framework for analyzing decarbonization plans and can be used to refine AFOLU mitigation strategies to capitalize on synergies and minimize negative trade-offs across the three dimensions of wealth and sustainable economic development, namely economy, society and the environment.

Ecological Economics↗

USGS2022

Local environment and individuals’ beliefs: The dynamics shaping public support for sustainability policy in an agricultural landscape

Agricultural landscapes are the bleeding-edge in the advancement of sustainability and climate change adaptation. Our study focuses on how individual support for sustainability policy is shaped in coupled natural and human systems. We present an agent-based model in which a cultural decision-rule quantifies the probability that a stakeholder decides to support an easement policy for a region in the Central Great Plains, USA. Our model defines a cultural threshold used to assess how culturally meaningful the policy is for each stakeholder. The individual cultural threshold is estimated using the value-belief-norm framework and is modified by perceived changes in the environment. Results demonstrated that few stakeholders support the policy in the average cultural setting (8.9%). However, enough stakeholders would support the policy under a lower cultural threshold (40.7%). Our results indicate that sustainability policies do not need to be cheap if they are culturally meaningful.

Kansas↗

USGS2024

Causal inference approaches reveal both positive and negative unintended effects of agricultural and urban management practices on instream biological condition

Agricultural and urban management practices (MPs) are primarily designed and implemented to reduce nutrient and sediment concentrations in streams. However, there is growing interest in determining if MPs produce any unintended positive effects, or co-benefits, to instream biological and habitat conditions. Identifying co-benefits is challenging though because of confounding variables (i.e., those that affect both where MPs are applied and stream biota), which can be accounted for in novel causal inference approaches. Here, we used two causal inference approaches, propensity score matching (PSM) and Bayesian network learning (BNL), to identify potential MP co-benefits in the Chesapeake Bay watershed portion of Maryland, USA. Specifically, we examined how MPs may modify instream conditions that impact fish and macroinvertebrate indices of biotic integrity (IBI) and functional and taxonomic endpoints. We found evidence of positive unintended effects of MPs for both benthic macroinvertebrates and fish indicated by higher IBI scores and specific endpoints like the number of scraper macroinvertebrate taxa and lithophilic spawning fish taxa in a subset of regions. However, our results also suggest MPs have negative unintended effects, especially on sensitive benthic macroinvertebrate taxa and key instream habitat and water quality metrics like specific conductivity. Overall, our results suggest MPs offer co-benefits in some regions and catchments with largely degraded conditions but can have negative unintended effects in some regions, especially in catchments with good biological conditions. We suggest the number and types of MPs drove these mixed results and highlight carefully designed MP implementation that incorporates instream biological data at the catchment scale could facilitate co-benefits to instream biological conditions. Our study underscores the need for more research on identifying effects of individual MP types on instream biological and habitat conditions.

Maryland↗

USGS2019

Assessment of site-specific agricultural Best Management Practices in the Upper East River watershed, Wisconsin, using a field-scale SWAT model

The Great Lakes “Priority Watershed” effort targeted the Upper East River watershed, a 116.5 km2 tributary watershed to Green Bay in Wisconsin, to reduce sediment and nutrients entering Green Bay. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was created to determine the effectiveness of Best Management Practices (BMPs) derived from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. The model was calibrated at the monthly timestep for flow, sediment, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN). Field- and watershed-scale sediment and nutrient reductions were calculated due to the implementation of 74 BMP combinations on dairy and cash grain rotations. Modeling results indicated that when multiple BMPs are placed on a field, especially those that included filter strips and grassed waterways, generally reduced sediment and nutrient loads more than a single BMP implementation. The most effective in-field practice at reducing DRP and TP on dairy fields was a combination of 5 different BMPs: cover crops, crop rotation, nutrient management plan, reduced tillage, and a filter strip. Conservation cover was the most effective practice at reducing sediment and nutrient yields. Sediment and nutrient loads decreased at the watershed scale as the quantity and coverage of BMPs increased. When all contracted NCP BMPs were simulated at the watershed scale, sediment loads were reduced 2%, while TP, DRP, TN and nitrate loads were reduced 20%, 9%, 24%, and 17%, respectively. Modeling scenarios indicated that as the number and area of BMPs were increased, sediment and nutrient load reductions were also increased.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2007

The feasibility of applying immature yard-waste compost to remove nitrate from agricultural drainage effluents: A preliminary assessment

Nitrate is a major agricultural pollutant found in drainage waters. Immature yard-waste compost was selected as a filter media to study its feasibility for removing nitrate from drainage water. Different operation parameters were tested to examine the denitrification efficiency, including the amounts of compost packed in columns, the flow rate, and the compost storage periods. The experimental results suggested that hydraulic retention time was the major factor to determine the extent of nitrate removal, although the amount of compost packed could also contribute to the nitrate removal efficiency. The effluent nitrate concentration increased as the flow rate decreased, and the compost column reduced nitrate concentrations from 20 mg/L to less than 5 mg/L within 1.5 h. The solution pH increased at the onset of experiment because of denitrification, but stabilized at a pH of about 7.8, suggesting that the compost had a buffering capacity to maintain a suitable pH for denitrification. Storing compost under air-dried conditions may diminish the extent nitrate removed initially, but the effects were not apparent after longer applications. It appeared that immature yard-waste compost may be a suitable material to remove nitrate from tile drainage water because of its relatively large organic carbon content, high microbial activity, and buffering capacity. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

USGS2011

Subsurface transport of orthophosphate in five agricultural watersheds, USA

Concentrations of dissolved orthophosphate (ortho P) in the unsaturated zone, groundwater, tile drains, and groundwater/stream water interfaces were assessed in five agricultural watersheds to determine the potential for subsurface transport. Concentrations of iron oxides were measured in the aquifer material and adsorption of ortho P on oxide surfaces was assessed by geochemical modeling. Attenuation of ortho P in these aquifers was attributed primarily to sorption onto iron oxides, and in one location onto clay minerals. Only one location showed a clear indication of phosphorus transport to a stream from groundwater discharge, although groundwater did contribute to the stream load elsewhere. Subsurface ortho P movement at a site in California resulted in a plume down gradient from orchards, which was attenuated by a 200 m thick riparian zone with natural vegetation. Iron oxides had an effect on phosphorus movement and concentrations at all locations, and groundwater chemistry, especially pH, exerted a major control on the amount of phosphorus adsorbed. Groundwater pH at a site in Maryland was below 5 and that resulted in complete sequestration of phosphorus and no movement toward the stream. Geochemical modeling indicated that as the surfaces approached saturation, groundwater concentrations of ortho P rise rapidly.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2013

Characterizing response of total suspended solids and total phosphorus loading to weather and watershed characteristics for rainfall and snowmelt events in agricultural watersheds

Understanding the response of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) to influential weather and watershed variables is critical in the development of sediment and nutrient reduction plans. In this study, rainfall and snowmelt event loadings of TSS and TP were analyzed for eight agricultural watersheds in Wisconsin, with areas ranging from 14 to 110 km2 and having four to twelve years of data available. The data showed that a small number of rainfall and snowmelt runoff events accounted for the majority of total event loading. The largest 10% of the loading events for each watershed accounted for 73–97% of the total TSS load and 64–88% of the total TP load. More than half of the total annual TSS load was transported during a single event for each watershed at least one of the monitored years. Rainfall and snowmelt events were both influential contributors of TSS and TP loading. TSS loading contributions were greater from rainfall events at five watersheds, from snowmelt events at two watersheds, and nearly equal at one watershed. The TP loading contributions were greater from rainfall events at three watersheds, from snowmelt events at two watersheds and nearly equal at three watersheds. Stepwise multivariate regression models for TSS and TP event loadings were developed separately for rainfall and snowmelt runoff events for each individual watershed and for all watersheds combined by using a suite of precipitation, melt, temperature, seasonality, and watershed characteristics as predictors. All individual models and the combined model for rainfall events resulted in two common predictors as most influential for TSS and TP. These included rainfall depth and the antecedent baseflow. Using these two predictors alone resulted in an R 2 greater than 0.7 in all but three individual models and 0.61 or greater for all individual models. The combined model yielded an R 2 of 0.66 for TSS and 0.59 for TP. Neither the individual nor the combined models were substantially improved by using additional predictors. Snowmelt event models were statistically significant for individual and combined watershed models, but the model fits were not all as good as those for rainfall events (R 2 between 0.19 and 0.87). Predictor selection varied from watershed to watershed, and the common variables that were selected were not always selected in the same order. Influential variables were commonly direct measures of moisture in the watershed such as snowmelt, rainfall + snowmelt, and antecedent baseflow, or measures of potential snowmelt volume in the watershed such as air temperature.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Characterizing phosphorus dynamics in tile-drained agricultural fieldsof eastern Wisconsin

Artificial subsurface drainage provides an avenue for the rapid transfer of phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields to surface waters. This is of particular interest in eastern Wisconsin, where there is a concentrated population of dairy farms and high clay content soils prone to macropore development. Through collaboration with private landowners, surface and tile drainage was measured and analyzed for dissolved reactive P (DRP) and total P (TP) losses at four field sites in eastern Wisconsin between 2005 and 2009. These sites, which received frequent manure applications, represent a range of crop management practices which include: two chisel plowed corn fields (CP1, CP2), a no-till corn–soybean field (NT), and a grazed pasture (GP). Subsurface drainage was the dominant pathway of water loss at each site accounting for 66–96% of total water discharge. Average annual flow-weighted (FW) TP concentrations were 0.88, 0.57, 0.21, and 1.32 mg L −1 for sites CP1, CP2, NT, and GP, respectively. Low TP concentrations at the NT site were due to tile drain interception of groundwater flow where large volumes of tile drainage water diluted the FW-TP concentrations. Subsurface pathways contributed between 17% and 41% of the TP loss across sites. On a drainage event basis, total drainage explained between 36% and 72% of the event DRP loads across CP1, CP2, and GP; there was no relationship between event drainflow and event DRP load at the NT site. Manure applications did not consistently increase P concentrations in drainflow, but annual FW-P concentrations were greater in years receiving manure applications compared to years without manure application. Based on these field measures, P losses from tile drainage must be integrated into field level P budgets and P loss calculations on heavily manured soils, while also acknowledging the unique drainage patterns observed in eastern Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗

USGS2026

Reservoir releases and land cover interact to drive event-scale nitrate export in a large agricultural basin

Understanding the drivers of nitrate export in rivers is critical for developing effective nutrient management strategies. However, few studies have explored event-scale drivers of export in large river basins with human modifications like reservoirs. Here, we analyzed nitrate concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships from 215 events at the outlet of the Kansas River Basin, USA (155,690 km 2 ) from 2014 to 2022 to (1) characterize event-scale nitrate export behaviors in a large agricultural basin, and (2) determine how different event characteristics are linked to these behaviors. We found that C-Q behaviors varied greatly, with 60% of events producing nitrate enrichment (n = 130) and 40% of events producing nitrate dilution (n = 85). These behaviors were correlated with complex spatial interlinkages between climate and land cover: across most of the basin, nitrate enrichment was correlated with drier antecedent conditions, but in wetter areas with higher proportions of urban and forested land cover, enrichment was more strongly correlated with precipitation magnitude/intensity. This difference in hydroclimatic controls on nitrate export might be related to differential distributions of nitrate sources within these land covers. Upstream of major reservoirs, however, neither variable was strongly correlated with C-Q behavior, suggesting that nitrate attenuation within reservoirs decouples event-scale concentration signals in upstream waters from those downstream. Reservoir outflows had variable impacts on C-Q behavior, reflecting reservoir-specific variations in nitrate attenuation efficiency. Together, these results identify specific complex interactions between hydroclimate, land cover, reservoir positioning, and individual reservoir properties that control event-scale nitrate export from large basins.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗

USGS2022

A new indicator approach to reconstruct agricultural land use in Europe from sedimentary pollen assemblages

The reconstruction of human impact is pivotal in palaeoecological studies, as humans are among the most important drivers of Holocene vegetation and ecosystem change. Nevertheless, separating the anthropogenic footprint on vegetation dynamics from the impact of climate and other environmental factors (disturbances such as fire, erosion, floods, landslides, avalanches, volcanic eruptions) is a challenging and still largely open issue. For this purpose, palynologists mostly rely on cultural indicator pollen types and related indices that consist of sums or ratios of these pollen types. However, the high environmental and biogeographical specificity of cultural indicator plants hinders the application of the currently available indices to wide geographical settings. Furthermore, the achievable taxonomic resolution of cultural indicator pollen types may hamper their indicative capacity. In this study, we propose the agricultural land use probability (LUP) index, a novel approach to quantify human impact intensity on European ecosystems based on cultural indicator pollen types. From the ‘classic’ cultural indicators, we construct the LUP index by selecting those with the best indicator capacity based on bioindication criteria. We first train the LUP index using twenty palynological sequences along a broad environmental gradient, spanning from treeless alpine to subtropical mediterranean evergreen plant communities. We then validate the LUP index using independent pollen datasets and archaeological proxies. Finally, we discuss the suitability of the selected pollen types and the potential of the LUP index for quantifying Holocene human impact in Europe, concluding that careful application of the LUP index may significantly contribute to refining pollen-based land-use reconstructions.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2014

Mercury cycling in agricultural and managed wetlands of California: experimental evidence of vegetation-driven changes in sediment biogeochemistry and methylmercury production

The role of live vegetation in sediment methylmercury (MeHg) production and associated biogeochemistry was examined in three types of agricultural wetlands (domesticated or white rice, wild rice, and fallow fields) and adjacent managed natural wetlands (cattail- and bulrush or tule-dominated) in the Yolo Bypass region of California's Central Valley, USA. During the active growing season for each wetland, a vegetated:de-vegetated paired plot experiment demonstrated that the presence of live plants enhanced microbial rates of mercury methylation by 20 to 669% (median = 280%) compared to de-vegetated plots. Labile carbon exudation by roots appeared to be the primary mechanism by which microbial methylation was enhanced in the presence of vegetation. Pore-water acetate (pw[Ac]) decreased significantly with de-vegetation (63 to 99%) among all wetland types, and within cropped fields, pw[Ac] was correlated with both root density (r = 0.92) and microbial Hg(II) methylation (k meth . r = 0.65). Sediment biogeochemical responses to de-vegetation were inconsistent between treatments for “reactive Hg” (Hg(II)R), as were reduced sulfur and sulfate reduction rates. Sediment MeHg concentrations in vegetated plots were double those of de-vegetated plots (median = 205%), due in part to enhanced microbial MeHg production in the rhizosphere, and in part to rhizoconcentration via transpiration-driven pore-water transport. Pore-water concentrations of chloride, a conservative tracer, were elevated (median = 22%) in vegetated plots, suggesting that the higher concentrations of other constituents around roots may also be a function of rhizoconcentration rather than microbial activity alone. Elevated pools of amorphous iron (Fe) in vegetated plots indicate that downward redistribution of oxic surface waters through transpiration acts as a stimulant to Fe(III)-reduction through oxidation of Fe(II)pools. These data suggest that vegetation significantly affected rhizosphere biogeochemistry through organic exudation and transpiration-driven concentration of pore-water constituents and oxidation of reduced compounds. While the relative role of vegetation varied among wetland types, macrophyte activity enhanced MeHg production.

California↗

USGS2014

Methylmercury production in and export from agricultural wetlands in California, USA: the need to account for physical transport processes into and out of the root zone

Concentration and mass balance analyses were used to quantify methylmercury (MeHg) loads from conventional (white) rice, wild rice, and fallowed fields in northern California's Yolo Bypass. These analyses were standardized against chloride to distinguish transport pathways and net ecosystem production (NEP). During summer, chloride loads were both exported with surface water and moved into the root zone at a 2:1 ratio. MeHg and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) behaved similarly with surface water and root zone exports at ~ 3:1 ratio. These trends reversed in winter with DOC, MeHg, and chloride moving from the root zone to surface waters at rates opposite and exceeding summertime root zone fluxes. These trends suggest that summer transpiration advectively moves constituents from surface water into the root zone, and winter diffusion, driven by concentration gradients, subsequently releases those constituents into surface waters. The results challenge a number of paradigms regarding MeHg. Specifically, biogeochemical conditions favoring microbial MeHg production do not necessarily translate to synchronous surface water exports; MeHg may be preserved in the soils allowing for release at a later time; and plants play a role in both biogeochemistry and transport. Our calculations show that NEP of MeHg occurred during both summer irrigation and winter flooding. Wild rice wet harvesting and winter flooding of white rice fields were specific practices that increased MeHg export, both presumably related to increased labile organic carbon and disturbance. Outflow management during these times could reduce MeHg exports. Standardizing MeHg outflow:inflow concentration ratios against natural tracers (e.g. chloride, EC) provides a simple tool to identify NEP periods. Summer MeHg exports averaged 0.2 to 1 μg m − 2 for the different agricultural wetland fields, depending upon flood duration. Average winter MeHg exports were estimated at 0.3 μg m − 2 . These exports are within the range reported for other shallow aquatic systems.

California↗

USGS2016

Effect of variable annual precipitation and nutrient input on nitrogen and phosphorus transport from two Midwestern agricultural watersheds

Precipitation patterns and nutrient inputs affect transport of nitrate (NO 3 -N) and phosphorus (TP) from Midwest watersheds. Nutrient concentrations and yields from two subsurface-drained watersheds, the Little Cobb River (LCR) in southern Minnesota and the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) in northern Iowa, were evaluated during 1996–2007 to document relative differences in timings and amounts of nutrients transported. Both watersheds are located in the prairie pothole region, but the SFIR exhibits a longer growing season and more livestock production. The SFIR yielded significantly more NO 3 -N than the LCR watershed (31.2 versus 21.3 kg NO 3 -N ha − 1 y − 1 ). The SFIR watershed also yielded more TP than the LCR watershed (1.13 versus 0.51 kg TP ha − 1 yr − 1 ), despite greater TP concentrations in the LCR. About 65% of NO 3 -N and 50% of TP loads were transported during April–June, and < 20% of the annual loads were transported later in the growing season from July–September. Monthly NO 3 -N and TP loads peaked in April from the LCR but peaked in June from the SFIR; this difference was attributed to greater snowmelt runoff in the LCR. The annual NO 3 -N yield increased with increasing annual runoff at a similar rate in both watersheds, but the LCR watershed yielded less annual NO 3 -N than the SFIR for a similar annual runoff. These two watersheds are within 150 km of one another and have similar dominant agricultural systems, but differences in climate and cropping inputs affected amounts and timing of nutrient transport.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2017

Evaluating the impact of irrigation on surface water – groundwater interaction and stream temperature in an agricultural watershed

Changes in groundwater discharge to streams caused by irrigation practices can influence stream temperature. Observations along two currently flood-irrigated reaches in the 640-square-kilometer upper Smith River watershed, an important agricultural and recreational fishing area in west-central Montana, showed a downstream temperature decrease resulting from groundwater discharge to the stream. A watershed-scale coupled surface water and groundwater flow model was used to examine changes in streamflow, groundwater discharge to the stream and stream temperature resulting from irrigation practices. The upper Smith River watershed was used to develop the model framework including watershed climate, topography, hydrography, vegetation, soil properties and current irrigation practices. Model results were used to compare watershed streamflow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to the stream for three scenarios: natural, pre-irrigation conditions (PreIrr); current irrigation practices involving mainly stream diversion for flood and sprinkler irrigation (IrrCurrent); and a hypothetical scenario with only groundwater supplying sprinkler irrigation (IrrGW). Irrigation increased groundwater recharge relative to natural PreIrr conditions because not all applied water was removed by crop evapotranspiration. Groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream increased relative to natural PreIrr conditions when the source of irrigation water was mainly stream diversion as in the IrrCurrent scenario. The hypothetical IrrGW scenario, in which groundwater withdrawals were the sole source of irrigation water, resulted in widespread lowering of the water table and associated decreases in groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream. A mixing analysis using model predicted groundwater discharge along the reaches suggests that stream diversion and flood irrigation, represented in the IrrCurrent scenario, has led to cooling of stream temperatures relative to natural PreIrr conditions improving fish thermal habitat. However, the decrease in groundwater discharge in the IrrGW scenario resulting from large-scale groundwater withdrawal for irrigation led to warmer than natural stream temperatures and possible degradation of fish habitat.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Fate and transport of nitrapyrin in agroecosystems: Occurrence in agricultural soils, subsurface drains, and receiving streams in the Midwestern US

Nitrapyrin is a nitrification inhibitor that is co-applied with nitrogen fertilizer in agroecosystems. There is limited information on the fate of nitrapyrin after it is applied to agricultural soils. Over the course of one year (March 2016 to June 2017), 192 water samples from seven streams across Iowa and Illinois were analyzed for nitrapyrin, its metabolite 6‑chloropicolinic acid (6‑CPA), and three widely used herbicides acetochlor, atrazine , and metolachlor. Additional environmental samples were collected and analyzed in spring 2017: 63 water samples from eight subsurface drains in Illinois, and 33 soil samples from a field in Iowa that received direct application of nitrapyrin. Nitrapyrin was detected in all seven streams (56% detection) with concentrations ranging from less than LOD to 1200 ng/L; 6‑CPA was detected in six of the seven streams (13% detection) with concentrations ranging from less than LOD to 13 ng/L. Nitrapyrin was detected in 10% of the subsurface drain samples with concentrations ranging from less than LOD to 12 ng/L; 6‑CPA was detected in six of the eight subsurface drains and in 33% of drain samples with concentrations ranging from less than LOD to 6 ng/L. Nitrapyrin was detected in 67% of the soil samples collected, and concentrations ranged from less than LOD to 42 ng/g. Generally, all three herbicides were detected more frequently and at higher concentrations than nitrapyrin in the streams, subsurface drains, and soils. The environmental fate of nitrapyrin after application is dominated by sorption to soil and off-field transport via leaching and overland flow.

Illinois, Iowa↗

USGS2019

Modeling groundwater nitrate exposure in private wells of North Carolina for the Agricultural Health Study

Unregulated private wells in the United States are susceptible to many groundwater contaminants. Ingestion of nitrate, the most common anthropogenic private well contaminant in the United States, can lead to the endogenous formation of N-nitroso-compounds, which are known human carcinogens. In this study, we expand upon previous efforts to model private well groundwater nitrate concentration in North Carolina by developing multiple machine learning models and testing against out-of-sample prediction. Our purpose was to develop exposure estimates in unmonitored areas for use in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) cohort. Using approximately 22,000 private well nitrate measurements in North Carolina, we trained and tested continuous models including a censored maximum likelihood-based linear model, random forest, gradient boosted machine, support vector machine, neural networks, and kriging. Continuous nitrate models had low predictive performance (R 2 < 0.33), so multiple random forest classification models were also trained and tested. The final classification approach predicted <1 mg/L, 1–5 mg/L, and ≥5 mg/L using a random forest model with 58 variables and maximizing the Cohen's kappa statistic. The final model had an overall accuracy of 0.75 and high specificity for the higher two categories and high sensitivity for the lowest category. The results will be used for the categorical prediction of private well nitrate for AHS cohort participants that reside in North Carolina.

North Carolina↗

USGS2022

Implementing landscape connectivity with topographic filtering model: A simulation of suspended sediment delivery in an agricultural watershed

The widespread availability of high-fidelity topography combined with advances in geospatial analysis offer the opportunity to reimagine approaches to the difficult problem of predicting sediment delivery from watersheds. Here we present a model that uses high-resolution topography to filter sediment sources to quantify sediment delivery to the watershed outlet. It is a reduced-complexity, top-down model that defines transfer functions—topographic filters—between spatially distributed sediment sources and spatially integrated sediment delivery. The goal of the model is to forecast changes in watershed suspended sediment delivery in response to spatially distributed changes in sediment source magnitude or delivery, whether a result of watershed drivers or intentional management actions. Such an application requires the context of a watershed model that accounts for all sediment sources, enforces sediment mass balance throughout the spatial domain, and accommodates sediment storage and delivery over time. The model is developed for a HUC-8 watershed with a flat upland dominated by corn-soybean agriculture and deeply incised valleys near the watershed outlet with large sediment contributions from near-channel sources. Topofilter computes delivery and storage of field-derived sediment according to its spatial and structural connectivity to the stream channel network; subsequently, delivery of both field- and near-channel-derived sediment along with floodplain storage are computed in the stream channel network to the watershed outlet. The model outputs provide a spatially rich representation of sediment delivery and storage on field and along the stream that is consistent with available independent information on sediment accumulations and fluxes. Rather than a single best-calibrated solution, Topofilter uses the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimate (GLUE) approach to develop many possible solutions with sediment delivery rates expressed as probability distributions across the watershed. The ensemble of simulation outputs provides a useful basis for estimating uncertainty in sediment delivery and the effectiveness of different landscape management allocation across a watershed.

Minnesota↗