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USGS2011

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. An appropriate measure of the economic impacts on the California economy for the SAFRR tsunami scenario is the reduction in GDP. The economic impacts are first calculated without resilience, the ability of the economy to adjust to disruptions in ways that mute potential negative impacts. There are many types of resilience, including using existing inventories of materials, using unused capacity, conserving inputs, substituting for disrupted supplies, recapturing production after the disruption is restored, and many others. A method for estimating resilience, identified in the port system and sectors affected by property damages, is applied to indicate potential reductions of direct and total economic impacts. In this SAFRR tsunami scenario analysis of economic impacts to California, we implement established techniques used to model the economic impacts for two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scenarios: the southern California Shakeout earthquake (Rose and others, 2011) and the California ARkStorm severe winter storm (Sue Wing and others, written commun., 2013). For the SAFRR tsunami scenario, we reviewed the relevant studies that assess economic impacts from previous tsunami events affecting California and elsewhere and estimate the economic impacts of potential tsunami and other threats to POLA and POLB. To our knowledge, assessment of impacts to the California economy from distant source tsunamis does not exist. Previous tsunamis, including those from the 1960 Chile earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2008 Chile earthquake and the 2011 Japan earthquake, had only relatively minor or very localized severe damage (such as that in Crescent City in 1964), and no studies of the economic impacts were completed. A rare study of the economic impacts of a tsunami event has recently been produced for the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami (Kajitani and others, 2013). Quarterly declines in Japan’s GDP are observed to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

California↗

USGS2023

Mercury sources and budget for the Snake River above a hydroelectric reservoir complex

Understanding sources of mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) to a water body is critical for management but is often complicated by poorly characterized Hg inputs and in situ processes, such as inorganic Hg methylation. In this study, we determined inorganic Hg and MeHg concentrations and loads (filter-passing and particulate fractions) for a semi-arid 164-kilometer stretch of the Snake River above the Hells Canyon Complex, a Hg-impaired hydroelectric reservoir complex on the Idaho-Oregon border, and used water quality measurements and Hg stable isotope ratios to create a comprehensive Hg source budget for the river. Results show that whereas most of the streamflow to the study reach comes from the main branch of the Snake River (i.e., the upstream watershed), major tributaries within the study reach contribute a greater proportion of inorganic Hg and MeHg loads. Mercury stable-isotope analyses highlight that Hg within the tributaries is predominantly associated with geologic deposits and snowmelt sources, the latter reflecting wet deposition. Surprisingly, irrigation return drains contribute 40–50 % of particulate inorganic Hg loads despite being ≤4.3 % of the overall water budget. Together, tributaries and irrigation return drains account for 97–100 % of the inorganic Hg and streamflow to the study reach, but ~65 % of the MeHg, indicating in-stream and riparian methylation may be an important and previously unrecognized source of MeHg. Streamflow, total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, and agricultural land cover were found to be important controls on the mobilization and transport of different Hg species and fractions. This study represents the first fluvial budget for Hg in the Snake River that accounts for particulate and filter-passing Hg species from both major tributaries and irrigation return drains, and expands our understanding of Hg sources and methylation processes within semi-arid environments. This information is critical to inform management decisions related to elevated Hg burdens in biota.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2019

Stratification of reactivity determines nitrate removal in groundwater

Biogeochemical reactions occur unevenly in space and time, but this heterogeneity is often simplified as a linear average due to sparse data, especially in subsurface environments where access is limited. For example, little is known about the spatial variability of groundwater denitrification, an important process in removing nitrate originating from agriculture and land use conversion. Information about the rate, arrangement, and extent of denitrification is needed to determine sustainable limits of human activity and to predict recovery time frames. Here, we developed and validated a method for inferring the spatial organization of sequential biogeochemical reactions in an aquifer in France. We applied it to five other aquifers in different geological settings located in the United States and compared results among 44 locations across the six aquifers to assess the generality of reactivity trends. Of the sampling locations, 79% showed pronounced increases of reactivity with depth. This suggests that previous estimates of denitrification have underestimated the capacity of deep aquifers to remove nitrate, while overestimating nitrate removal in shallow flow paths. Oxygen and nitrate reduction likely increases with depth because there is relatively little organic carbon in agricultural soils and because excess nitrate input has depleted solid phase electron donors near the surface. Our findings explain the long-standing conundrum of why apparent reaction rates of oxygen in aquifers are typically smaller than those of nitrate, which is energetically less favorable. This stratified reactivity framework is promising for mapping vertical reactivity trends in aquifers, generating new understanding of subsurface ecosystems and their capacity to remove contaminants.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2016

Effects of land use and sample location on nitrate-stream flow hysteresis descriptors during storm events

The U.S. Geological Survey's New Jersey and Iowa Water Science Centers deployed ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometric sensors at water-quality monitoring sites on the Passaic and Pompton Rivers at Two Bridges, New Jersey, on Toms River at Toms River, New Jersey, and on the North Raccoon River near Jefferson, Iowa to continuously measure in-stream nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen (NO 3 + NO 2 ) concentrations in conjunction with continuous stream flow measurements. Statistical analysis of NO 3 + NO 2 vs . stream discharge during storm events found statistically significant links between land use types and sampling site with the normalized area and rotational direction of NO 3 + NO 2 -stream discharge (N-Q) hysteresis patterns. Statistically significant relations were also found between the normalized area of a hysteresis pattern and several flow parameters as well as the normalized area adjusted for rotational direction and minimum NO 3 + NO 2 concentrations. The mean normalized hysteresis area for forested land use was smaller than that of urban and agricultural land uses. The hysteresis rotational direction of the agricultural land use was opposite of that of the urban and undeveloped land uses. An r 2 of 0.81 for the relation between the minimum normalized NO 3 + NO 2 concentration during a storm vs . the normalized NO 3 + NO 2 concentration at peak flow suggested that dilution was the dominant process controlling NO 3 + NO 2 concentrations over the course of most storm events.

Iowa, New Jersey↗

USGS2022

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2010

Trends and transformation of nutrients and pesticides in a Coastal Plain aquifer system, United States

Four local-scale sites in areas with similar corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] agriculture were studied to determine the effects of different hydrogeologic settings of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) on the transport of nutrients and pesticides in groundwater. Settings ranged from predominantly well-drained soils overlying thick, sandy surficial aquifers to predominantly poorly drained soils with complex aquifer stratigraphy and high organic matter content. Apparent age of groundwater, dissolved gases, N isotopes, major ions, selected pesticides and degradates, and geochemical environments in groundwater were studied. Agricultural chemicals were the source of most dissolved ions in groundwater. Specific conductance was strongly correlated with reconstructed nitrate (the sum of N in nitrate and N gas) (R 2 = 0.81, p < 0.0001), and is indicative of the relative degree of agricultural effects on groundwater. Trends in nitrate were primarily related to changes in manure and fertilizer use at the well-drained sites where aquifer conditions were consistently oxic. Nitrate was present in young groundwater but completely removed over time through denitrification at the poorly drained sites where there were variations in chemical input and in geochemical environment. Median concentrations of atrazine (6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1- methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine), metolachlor (2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6- methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide), and some of their common degradates were higher at well-drained sites than at poorly drained sites, with concentrations of degradates generally higher than those of the parent compounds at all sites. An increase in the percentage of deethylatrazine to total atrazine over time at one well-drained site may be related to changes in manure application. Copyright ?? 2010 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2025

A network of refugia: Whooping Crane drought response informs international habitat conservation goals

Whooping Cranes land in a palustrine-emergent wetland amid row crop agriculture near Atkinson, Nebraska, during spring migration in April of 2020 (photo by M. L. Forsberg). From 2023 to 2024, the U.S. and Canada updated conservation plans for the Whooping Crane through international workshops. These forthcoming documents will reflect shared goals for wetland conservation aimed at boosting the species' resilience to climate change and habitat loss, which were informed by applied research regarding drought impacts on migrating Whooping Cranes. The active protection and management of hydrologically diverse wetland complexes can create climate refugia that help ensure the integrity of Whooping Crane migration through the Central Flyway into the foreseeable future.

Great Plains↗

USGS2021

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2007

Southwest Exotic Mapping Program 2007: Occurrence summary and maps of select invasive, non-native plants in Arizona

An important aspect of management of invasive, non-native plants (invasive plants) is information on the type, location, and magnitude of infestations. Regional development of this information requires an integrated program of data collection, management, and delivery. The Southwest Exotic Plant Mapping Program (SWEMP), coordinated through the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Biological Science Center, annually compiles occurrence records for infestations of invasive plants. Operating since 1998, the SWEMP team has accepted occurrence records contributed voluntarily by federal, tribal, state, and private collaborators and has compiled these contributions accumulatively with previous versions of SWEMP. The SWEMP 2007 regional database update, SWEMP07, contains 62,000 records for 221 plant species with records dating as far back as 1911 and up to December, 2006. Records include invasive plants in Arizona, eastern California, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. SWEMP07 is available through the Southwest Exotic Plant Information Clearinghouse ( http://sbsc.wr.usgs.gov/research/projects/swepic/swepic.asp , click SWEMP). Not all invasive plants are non-native and not all invasive plants are even invasive. The Arizona Invasive Species Advisory Council (2006) defined an invasive species as “a species that is (1) non-native to the ecosystem under consideration and, (2) whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm, or harm to human health”. SWEMP uses the U.S. Department of Agriculture PLANTS database ( http://plants.usda.gov/ ) to determine if a plant is native or not to Arizona. As SWEMP does not independently assess the current or potential impact of invasive plants, we include most non-native plant records contributed. We have not included agricultural crops that are non-native, for example apples, oranges, etc. In this open-file-report, we use the SWEMP07 update to summarize the occurrence of invasive plants in Arizona and present distribution maps for a select invasive plants in Arizona. We use the word occurrence purposefully instead of the word distribution. The SWEMP07 database only provides an estimate of the actual distribution of invasive plants in Arizona. The information provided is a first approximation of the state-wide extent of invasive plant distribution.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Long-term trends in alkalinity in large rivers of the conterminous US in relation to acidification, agriculture, and hydrologic modification

Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate + sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen–Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate + sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS1993

Assessing the effect of pesticides in agricultural runoff on aquatic life in the Sangamon River near Monticello, Illinois

Stream-water samples collected from a midwest stream, following a thunderstorm during May 1991 were toxic to water fleas (Ceriodaphnia dubia), but not fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), or a bacterium (Photobacterium phosphoreum) or green alga (Selenastrum capricornutum). It was unlikely that the toxicity to the water fleas was caused by herbicides, but it may have been caused by insecticides.Stream-water samples collected from a midwest stream, following a thunderstorm during May 1991 were toxic to water fleas (Ceriodaphnia dubia), but not fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), or a bacterium (Photobacterium phosphoreum) or green alga (Selenastrum capricornutum). It was unlikely that the toxicity to the water fleas was caused by herbicides, but it may have been caused by insecticides.

Water Science and Technology↗

USGS2015

Effects of land use on greenhouse gas fluxes and soil properties of wetland catchments in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland restoration has been suggested as policy goal with multiple environmental benefits including enhancement of atmospheric carbon sequestration. However, there are concerns that increased methane (CH 4 ) emissions associated with restoration may outweigh potential benefits. A comprehensive, 4-year study of 119 wetland catchments was conducted in the Prairie Pothole Region of the north-central U.S. to assess the effects of land use on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and soil properties. Results showed that the effects of land use on GHG fluxes and abiotic soil properties differed with respect to catchment zone (upland, wetland), wetland classification, geographic location, and year. Mean CH 4 fluxes from the uplands were predictably low (< 0.02 g CH 4 m − 2 day − 1 ), while wetland zone CH 4 fluxes were much greater (< 0.001–3.9 g CH 4 m − 2 day − 1 ). Mean cumulative seasonal CH 4 fluxes ranged from roughly 0–650 g CH 4 m − 2 , with an overall mean of approximately 160 g CH 4 m − 2 . These maximum cumulative CH 4 fluxes were nearly 3 times as high as previously reported in North America. The overall magnitude and variability of N 2 O fluxes from this study (< 0.0001–0.0023 g N 2 O m − 2 day − 1 ) were comparable to previously reported values. Results suggest that soil organic carbon is lost when relatively undisturbed catchments are converted for agriculture, and that when non-drained cropland catchments are restored, CH 4 fluxes generally are not different than the pre-restoration baseline. Conversely, when drained cropland catchments are restored, CH 4 fluxes are noticeably higher. Consequently, it is important to consider the type of wetland restoration (drained, non-drained) when assessing restoration benefits. Results also suggest that elevated N 2 O fluxes from cropland catchments likely would be reduced through restoration. The overall variability demonstrated by this study was consistent with findings of other wetland investigations and underscores the difficulty in quantifying the GHG balance of wetland systems.

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2020

Spatiotemporal variation in occurrence and co-occurrence of pesticides, hormones, and other organic contaminants in rivers in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, United States

Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of contaminants in surface water is crucial to better understand how introduced chemicals are interacting with and potentially influencing aquatic organisms and environments. Within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA, there are concerns about the potential role of contaminant exposure on fish health. Evidence suggests that exposure to contaminants in surface water is causing immunosuppression and intersex in freshwater fish species. Despite these concerns, there is a paucity of information regarding the complex dynamics of contaminant occurrence and co-occurrence in surface water across both space and time. To address these concerns, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical joint-contaminant model to describe the occurrence and co-occurrence patterns of 28 contaminants and total estrogenicity across six river sites and over three years. We found that seasonal occurrence patterns varied by contaminant, with the highest occurrence probabilities during the spring and summer months. Additionally, we found that the proportion of agricultural landcover in the immediate catchment, as well as stream discharge, did not have a significant effect on the occurrence probabilities of most compounds. Four pesticides (atrazine, metolachlor, fipronil and simazine) co-occurred across sites after accounting for environmental covariates. These results provide baseline information on the contaminant occurrence patterns of several classes of compounds within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of contaminants in surface water is the first step in investigating the effects of contaminant exposure on fisheries and aquatic environments.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2008

Chemical and toxicologic assessment of organic contaminants in surface water using passive samplers

Passive sampling methodologies were used to conduct a chemical and toxicologic assessment of organic contaminants in the surface waters of three geographically distinct agricultural watersheds. A selection of current-use agrochemicals and persistent organic pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, and organochlorine pesticides, were targeted using the polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) and the semipermeable membrane device passive samplers. In addition to the chemical analysis, the Microtox assay for acute toxicity and the yeast estrogen screen (YES) were conducted as potential assessment tools in combination with the passive samplers. During the spring of 2004, the passive samplers were deployed for 29 to 65 d at Leary Weber Ditch, IN; Morgan Creek, MD; and DR2 Drain, WA. Chemical analysis of the sampler extracts identified the agrochemicals predominantly used in those areas, including atrazine, simazine, acetochlor, and metolachlor. Other chemicals identified included deethylatrazine and deisopropylatrazine, trifluralin, fluoranthene, pyrene, cis- and trans-nonachlor, and pentachloroanisole. Screening using Microtox resulted in no acutely toxic samples. POCIS samples screened by the YES assay failed to elicit a positive estrogenic response. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2018

Surrounding land cover types as predictors of palustrine wetland vegetation quality in conterminous USA

The loss of wetland habitats and their often-unique biological communities is a major environmental concern. We examined vegetation data obtained from 380 wetlands sampled in a statistical survey of wetlands in the USA. Our goal was to identify which surrounding land cover types best predict two indices of vegetation quality in wetlands at the regional scale. We considered palustrine wetlands in four regions (Coastal Plains, North Central East, Interior Plains, and West) in which the dominant vegetation was emergent, forested, or scrub-shrub. For each wetland, we calculated weighted proportions of eight land cover types surrounding the area in which vegetation was assessed, in four zones radiating from the edge of the assessment area to 2 km. Using Akaike's Information Criterion, we determined the best 1-, 2- and 3-predictor models of the two indices, using the weighted proportions of the land cover types as potential predictors. Mean values of the two indices were generally higher in the North Central East and Coastal Plains than the other regions for forested and emergent wetlands. In nearly all cases, the best predictors of the indices were not the dominant surrounding land cover types. Overall, proportions of forest (positive effect) and agriculture (negative effect) surrounding the assessment area were the best predictors of the two indices. One or both of these variables were included as predictors in 65 of the 72 models supported by the data. Wetlands surrounding the assessment area had a positive effect on the indices, and ranked third (33%) among the predictors included in supported models. Development had a negative effect on the indices and was included in only 28% of supported models. These results can be used to develop regional management plans for wetlands, such as creating forest buffers around wetlands, or to conserve zones between wetlands to increase habitat connectivity.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2021

Time marches on, but do the causal pathways driving instream habitat and biology remain consistent?

Stream ecosystems are complex networks of interacting terrestrial and aquatic drivers. To untangle these ecological networks, efforts evaluating the direct and indirect effects of landscape, climate, and instream predictors on biological condition through time are needed. We used structural equation modeling and leveraged a stream survey program to identify and compare important predictors driving condition of benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages. We used data resampled 14 years apart at 252 locations across Maryland, USA. Sample locations covered a wide range of conditions that varied spatiotemporally. Overall, the relationship directions were consistent between sample periods, but their relative strength varied temporally. For benthic macroinvertebrates, we found that the total effect of natural landscape ( e.g ., elevation, longitude, latitude, geology) and land use ( i.e ., forest, development, agriculture) predictors was 1.4 and 1.5 times greater in the late 2010s compared to the 2000s. Moreover, the total effect of water quality ( e.g ., total nitrogen and conductivity) and habitat ( e.g ., embeddedness, riffle quality) was 1.2 and 4.8 times lower in the 2010s, respectively. For fish assemblage condition, the total effect of land use-land cover predictors was 2.3 times greater in the 2010s compared to the 2000s, while the total effect of local habitat was 1.4 times lower in the 2010s, respectively. As expected, we found biological assemblages in catchments with more agriculture and urban development were generally comprised of tolerant, generalist species, while assemblages in catchments with greater forest cover had more-specialized, less-tolerant species ( e.g., Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa, clingers, benthic and lithophilic spawning fishes). Changes in the relative importance of landscape and land-use predictors suggest other correlated, yet unmeasured, proximal factors became more important over time. By untangling these ecological networks, stakeholders can gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal relationships driving biological condition to implement management practices aimed at improving stream condition.

Maryland↗

USGS2023

Model-based assessment and mapping of total phosphorus enrichment in rivers with sparse reference data

Water nutrient management efforts are frequently coordinated across thousands of water bodies, leading to a need for spatially extensive information to facilitate decision making. Here we explore potential applications of a machine learning model of river low-flow total phosphorus (TP) concentrations to support landscape nutrient management. The model was trained, validated, and then applied for all rivers of Michigan, USA to identify potential drivers of nutrient variation, predict alteration in nutrient concentrations from minimally disturbed conditions, and explore reach specific sensitivity to riparian agricultural change. A boosted regression tree model of low-flow TP concentrations trained on natural and anthropogenic landscape predictors accounted for 53 % of variation in cross-validation data, had good accuracy, little bias, and plausible relationships between predictors and response. Percent riparian agricultural cover accounted for the greatest root mean square error reduction in the modeled response (33.2 %), followed by riparian soil permeability (12.9 %), watershed slope (9.6 %), and percent urban cover (9.6 %). An apparent non-linear relationship between TP concentrations and percent riparian agricultural cover suggested steep positive increases in stream TP concentrations between 10 and 30 % upstream riparian agricultural cover. Predicted minimally disturbed TP concentrations were spatially variable and ranged from 7.0 to 48.5 μg l −1 , with the highest concentrations in watersheds draining low-permeability lake plain soils. Comparison of minimally disturbed predictions to those from the early 2000s suggested that much of northern Michigan existed close to the reference condition, while lower Michigan streams were often substantially enriched. Our predicted values of minimally disturbed condition generally agree with previous studies but offer greater geographic specificity. Expanded application of machine learning modeling with landscape predictor data have great potential to inform large scale strategy development in landscapes with sparse reference data.

Michigan↗