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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources

Some interpretations of sequential bid pricing strategies

This note provides an alternative interpretation for sequential bid pricing strategies as initially formulated by Kortanek, Soden, and Sodaro [Kortanek, K. O., J. V. Soden, D. Sodabo. 1973. Profit analysis and sequential bid pricing models. Management Sci. 20 (3, November) 396–417. In particular, bid prices obtained from the sequential model are shown to result from a condition which incorporates the failure rate function as a means of including probable actions of competing firms. A reformulation of the bidder's criterion function in the context of utility theory is also discussed and shown to result in bidding strategies which may also be interpreted in the proposed fashion.

Management Science

Drought in the Delta: Socio-ecological impacts, responses, and tools

Droughts are frequent events in the western United States, and can disrupt water supply and degrade water quality, challenging water management in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta). This chapter for the State of Bay–Delta Science report describes what drought means for the Delta, how drought is managed in the Delta, and how drought management has changed over time. Projections of future climate indicate the possibility of increased frequency and severity of droughts which would have increasing effects on California’s water system, society, and ecological functions within and beyond the Delta. California has experienced several major droughts in the 20th and 21st centuries, each of which has caused significant social and ecological impacts and motivated improvements in water management. Droughts decrease native fish populations, increase harmful algal blooms, and promote the spread of many invasive plant and animal species. For people living within the Delta and those that rely on Delta water exports, droughts increase drinking water costs and decrease agricultural production, negatively affecting agricultural economies and labor markets. Tools developed in response to droughts include actions that increase supply, such as building water infrastructure, actions to reduce demand, such as water conservation campaigns, and mitigation actions, such as monetary relief for drought-impacted communities. Improving drought resilience requires development of additional drought responses, increased forecasting accuracy, and increased awareness of impacts on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. Even with development of additional management actions, strategies, and regulations, there will likely be difficulties meeting the current levels of demand for water. Drought conditions already cause conflict between human and environmental uses, and with more extreme droughts possible in the future and projected increases in demand, it will be challenging to provide for all users’ needs even with major changes to water management in the Delta.

California

Mercury source changes and food web shifts alter contamination signatures of predatory fish from Lake Michigan

To understand the impact reduced mercury (Hg) loading and invasive species have had on methylmercury bioaccumulation in predator fish of Lake Michigan, we reconstructed bioaccumulation trends from a fish archive (1978 to 2012). By measuring fish Hg stable isotope ratios, we related temporal changes in Hg concentrations to varying Hg sources. Additionally, dietary tracers were necessary to identify food web influences. Through combined Hg, C, and N stable isotopic analyses, we were able to differentiate between a shift in Hg sources to fish and periods when energetic transitions (from dreissenid mussels) led to the assimilation of contrasting Hg pools (2000 to present). In the late 1980s, lake trout δ 202 Hg increased (0.4‰) from regulatory reductions in regional Hg emissions. After 2000, C and N isotopes ratios revealed altered food web pathways, resulting in a benthic energetic shift and changes to Hg bioaccumulation. Continued increases in δ 202 Hg indicate fish are responding to several United States mercury emission mitigation strategies that were initiated circa 1990 and continued through the 2011 promulgation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards rule. Unlike archives of sediments, this fish archive tracks Hg sources susceptible to bioaccumulation in Great Lakes fisheries. Analysis reveals that trends in fish Hg concentrations can be substantially affected by shifts in trophic structure and dietary preferences initiated by invasive species in the Great Lakes. This does not diminish the benefits of declining emissions over this period, as fish Hg concentrations would have been higher without these actions.

Lake Michigan

Evidence of economical territory selection in a cooperative carnivore

As an outcome of natural selection, animals are probably adapted to select territories economically by maximizing benefits and minimizing costs of territory ownership. Theory and empirical precedent indicate that a primary benefit of many territories is exclusive access to food resources, and primary costs of defending and using space are associated with competition, travel and mortality risk. A recently developed mechanistic model for economical territory selection provided numerous empirically testable predictions. We tested these predictions using location data from grey wolves ( Canis lupus ) in Montana, USA. As predicted, territories were smaller in areas with greater densities of prey, competitors and low-use roads, and for groups of greater size. Territory size increased before decreasing curvilinearly with greater terrain ruggedness and harvest mortalities. Our study provides evidence for the economical selection of territories as a causal mechanism underlying ecological patterns observed in a cooperative carnivore. Results demonstrate how a wide range of environmental and social conditions will influence economical behaviour and resulting space use. We expect similar responses would be observed in numerous territorial species. A mechanistic approach enables understanding how and why animals select particular territories. This knowledge can be used to enhance conservation efforts and more successfully predict effects of conservation actions.

Montana

A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

Marine Mammal Science

Taking the leap: A binational translocation effort to close the 420-km gap in the Baja California lineage of the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii)

Conservation translocations, the human-mediated movement and release of a living organism for a conservation benefit, are increasingly recommended in species’ recovery plans as a technique for mitigating population declines or augmenting genetic diversity. However, translocation protocols for species with broad distributions may require regionally specific considerations to increase success, as environmental gradients may pose different constraints on population establishment and persistence in different parts of the range. Here we report on ongoing, genetically informed translocations of a threatened amphibian, California red-legged frog ( Rana draytonii ), from Baja California, México, to extirpated parts of the range in southern California in the United States, where contemporary stressors related to urbanization, invasive species, and aridification add to the natural environmental challenges already present for amphibians at this ‘warm edge’ of the range. We describe the collaborative binational planning required to jumpstart the effort, the fine-tuning of protocols for collection, transport, headstarting, and release of individuals, and results of multiple translocations, where time will tell whether the successes to date have reached their full potential. The steps outlined in this paper can serve as a template to inform future conservation translocations of imperiled amphibians across the U.S./México border, where the phylogenetics, historical biogeography and future habitat availability of a focal species are blind to political boundaries and critical to guiding recovery actions across the range.

Baja California, California

Cumulative effects assessment of restoration programs: A framework to assess achievement of regional and programmatic goals

Increasing global investments focused on conservation and restoration of natural resources aim to address challenges presented by climate change and biodiversity loss. Many restoration and conservation program assessments examine individual actions, assuming additive effects only, failing to acknowledge or capture potential synergistic or antagonistic effects across a region or program. Cumulative effects assessments (CEA) provide a more ecologically relevant framework to assess the outcome of large restoration efforts. These assessments are critical given the increasing frequency of projects and the potential for cross-project interaction, yet there are few efforts to document the presence and patterns of cumulative effects for large-scale restoration programs. Understanding both the individual and cumulative effects of projects within a large restoration program can also inform the conceptualization of future large-scale restoration efforts by enabling the full suite of outcomes to be evaluated and considered against no-action scenarios in future planning. Here, we describe the development of a conceptual framework for CEA from large-scale restoration efforts.

Alabama, Florida

Knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and opportunities regarding the response of the Chesapeake Bay estuary to restoration efforts

As part of the Chesapeake Bay Program's (CBP's) Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) initiative "Achieving Water Quality Goals in the Chesapeake Bay: An Evaluation of System Response", an Estuary Working Group was formed to generate an assessment of scientific knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and recent ecosystem changes to consider in light of CBP's impending goal of full implementation of management measures (Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL] agreements and associated necessary stakeholder actions) that are being finalized and designed to achieve living resource-based nutrient targets by 2025. This document summarizes aspects of the knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and associated needs and opportunities relating to our understanding of how the Chesapeake Bay estuary has responded to previously implemented management plans, and what features of the ecosystem may slow or enhance its response to future management actions in the face of expected continuations of climatic change.

Chesapeake Bay estuary

Novel analyses of long-term data provide a scientific basis for chlorophyll-a thresholds in San Francisco Bay

San Francisco Bay (SFB), USA, is highly enriched in nitrogen and phosphorus, but has been resistant to the classic symptoms of eutrophication associated with over-production of phytoplankton . Observations in recent years suggest that this resistance may be weakening, shown by: significant increases of chlorophyll- a ( chl-a ) and decreases of dissolved oxygen (DO), common occurrences of phytoplankton taxa that can form Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), and algal toxins in water and mussels reaching levels of concern. As a result, managers now ask: what levels of chl-a in SFB constitute tipping points of phytoplankton biomass beyond which water quality will become degraded, requiring significant nutrient reductions to avoid impairments? We analyzed data for DO, phytoplankton species composition, chl-a, and algal toxins to derive quantitative relationships between three indicators (HAB abundance, toxin concentrations, DO) and chl-a . Quantile regressions relating HAB abundance and DO to chl-a were significant, indicating SFB is at increased risk of adverse HAB and low DO levels if chl-a continues to increase. Conditional probability analysis (CPA) showed chl-a of 13 mg m −3 as a “protective” threshold below which probabilities for exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance and toxins were reduced. This threshold was similar to chl-a of 13–16 mg m −3 that would meet a SFB-wide 80% saturation Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for DO. Higher “at risk” chl-a thresholds from 25 to 40 mg m −3 corresponded to 0.5 probability of exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance, and for DO below a WQC of 5.0 mg L −1 designated for lower South Bay (LSB) and South Bay (SB). We submit these thresholds as a basis to assess eutrophication status of SFB and to inform nutrient management actions. This approach is transferrable to other estuaries to derive chl-a thresholds protective against eutrophication.

California

Grand challenges in the management and conservation of North American inland fishes and fisheries

Even with long-standing management and extensive science support, North American inland fish and fisheries still face many conservation and management challenges. We used a grand challenges approach to identify critical roadblocks that if removed would help solve important problems in the management and long-term conservation of North American inland fish and fisheries. We identified seven grand challenges within three themes (valuation, governance, and externalities) and 34 research needs and management actions. The major themes identified are to (1) raise awareness of diverse values associated with inland fish and fisheries, (2) govern inland fish and fisheries to satisfy multiple use and conservation objectives, and (3) ensure productive inland fisheries given nonfishing sector externalities. Addressing these grand challenges will help the broader community understand the diverse values of inland fish and fisheries, promote open forums for engagement of diverse stakeholders in fisheries management, and better integrate the inland fish sector into the greater water and land use policy process.

Fisheries

The Ecosystem Approach in the 21st century: Guiding science and management – A synthesis

Maintaining the integrity and health of aquatic ecosystems is critical to sustaining the many valued services that they provide society. Unfortunately, achieving this goal has proven challenging in most of the world's large ecosystems owing to rampant environmental change caused by human-driven stress, including accelerating climate change, pollution of waterways, habitat modification and destruction, and the continued spread of non-native species (He and Silliman, 2019; Jenny et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2015; Steffen et al., 2007). These stressors, which can also include purposeful management actions (e.g. nutrient and fisheries management), are presenting a grave challenge globally to efforts aimed at securing a sustainable future for nature, society, and the economy.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management

Critter Tales—Adventures in restoration activity book for kids

Product Information “Critter Tales: Adventures in Restoration Activity Book” is an interactive educational resource designed for children ages 5–9, produced by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Restoration and Damage Assessment. Through the journey of Lulu the loon and a cast of animal friends, young readers explore the importance of ecological restoration across diverse habitats—from sand dunes and wetlands to prairies and streams. The activity book blends storytelling, science, and hands-on activities to teach children how restoration efforts help wildlife thrive. Readers learn about native plants, animal life cycles, and the role of restoration in protecting habitats for birds, turtles, butterflies, mussels, and more. Engaging puzzles, coloring pages, and interactive challenges encourage kids to become nature’s helpers, fostering environmental stewardship and awareness. With vibrant illustrations and accessible language, the publication highlights practical actions—such as planting native milkweed, using lead-free fishing tackle, and supporting mussel restoration—that empower children to make a positive change in their own communities. The book also introduces basic ecological concepts and celebrates the interconnectedness of living things, making it an ideal resource for families, educators, and anyone interested in environmental education.

General Information Product

Fine-grained temporal population monitoring of a declining, critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

Annual point counts are commonly used to monitor birds to track population densities across space and time. Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are surveyed annually in the first quarter, but we recently instituted quarterly sampling that offers a unique opportunity to improve estimator precision. We conducted point-transect distance sampling point counts during the first quarter of 2020 through 2024, and the second through fourth quarters in 2022 and 2023, and the second quarter in 2024. The reduced sampling intensity during the quarterly counts, however, requires model-based methods to estimate abundance to the entire sampling frame. We modeled spatial and temporal correlation using a soap film smoother within a generalized additive modeling framework, a density surface model, fitted to palila counts each quarter for the five-year timeseries to track changes in population abundances. Our results indicate that palila maintained a high-density hotspot throughout the five-year timeseries; however, the extent of the hotspot declined substantially over the timeseries while densities within the hotspot declined from about 3 birds/ha in 2020 to about 1 bird/ha in 2024, which resulted in a 66% decline in palila abundances over 5 years. Density surface model estimates give on average a confidence interval width that was 74.7% shorter than the associated distance sampling confidence interval widths. Our results indicate that palila may benefit most if management actions were applied within the remaining hotspot. Additionally, this temporally fine-grained sampling provides information on seasonal movement patterns and resource tracking, and population response to management and conservation actions. Our spatially explicit, model-based approach is applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs, particularly those with inconsistent, opportunistic spatial coverage.

Hawaii

At the leading edge: Advancing and bridging the science and management of range-shifting species

Climate-mediated shifts in species distributions are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, creating major challenges for conservation and resource management. These range shifts have far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences, requiring managers to address complex ecological dynamics while navigating diverse regulatory and value systems. Despite growing attention, key gaps remain in supporting management, from improved understanding of the mechanisms of range shifts, to evaluating the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, and tailoring science to the institutional and social contexts of decision-making. Central challenges include scaling processes across space, time, and organizational levels, and reconciling mismatches between biogeographical and management scales. Progress will depend on more comprehensive datasets to assess outcomes across taxa and regions, stronger cross-jurisdictional cooperation, and decision frameworks that integrate uncertainty alongside multiple value systems. Addressing these gaps is essential to make research more actionable and to enable successful management of species redistribution.

BioScience

Saving our shared birds: Partners in Flight tri-national vision for landbird conservation

Landbirds are the most abundant and diverse group of birds in North America, with nearly 900 species distributed across every major terrestrial habitat. Birds are indicators of environmental health; their populations track changes in habitat, water, disease, and climate. They are providers of invaluable ecosystem services, such as pest control, seed dispersal, and pollination. As the focus of bird watching, they help generate billions of dollars for national economies. Yet, we are in danger of losing this spectacular and irreplaceable bird diversity: landbirds are experiencing significant declines, ominous threats, and shrinking habitats across a continent with growing human populations, increasing resource consumption, and changing climate. Saving Our Shared Birds presents for the first time a comprehensive conservation assessment of landbirds in Canada, Mexico, and the continental United States. This new tri-national vision encompasses the complete range of many migratory species and highlights the vital links among migrants and highly threatened resident species in Mexico. It points to a set of continent-scale actions necessary to maintain the landbird diversity and abundance that are our shared responsibility. This collaborative effort of Partners in Flight (PIF) is the next step in linking the countries of the Western Hemisphere to help species at risk and keep common birds common through voluntary partnerships—our mission since 1990. Saving Our Shared Birds builds upon PIF’s 2004 North American Landbird Conservation Plan, which presented science-based priorities for the conservation of 448 landbird species in Canada and the United States. Our three nations have expressed their commitment to cooperative conservation through numerous international treaties, agreements, and programs, including formation of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) a decade ago. The NABCI partnership recognizes that effective conservation requires a concerted effort within each country, as well as a tri-national strategy to address issues throughout the full life cycles of our birds. Today more than ever, it is urgent for the people of Canada, Mexico, and the United States to work together to keep common birds common, prevent extinction of our bird species at greatest risk, and ensure the diversity and abundance of birdlife across North America and throughout the hemisphere, far into the future. Saving Our Shared Birds shows the way forward.

Report

Participatory modeling and structured decision making

Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.

Book chapter

Perception and trust influence acceptance for black bears more than bear density or conflicts

Introduction: To sustain black bear (Ursus americanus) populations, wildlife managers should understand the coupled socio-ecological systems that influence acceptance capacity for bears. Method: In a study area encompassing a portion of New York State, we spatially matched datasets from three sources: human-bear conflict reports between 2006 and 2018, estimates of local bear density in 2017–2018, and responses to a 2018 property owner survey (n=1,772). We used structural equation modeling to test hypothesized relationships between local human-bear conflict, local bear density, and psychological variables. Results: The final model explained 57% of the variance in acceptance. The effect of bear population density on acceptance capacity for bears was relatively small and was mediated by a third variable: perception of proximity to the effects of human-bear interactions. The variables that exerted a direct effect on acceptance were perception of bear-related benefits, perception of bear-related risks, perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions, and being a hunter. Perception of bear-related benefits had a greater effect on acceptance than perception of bear-related risks. Perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions was affected by local bear density, but also was affected by social trust. Increased social trust had nearly the same effect on perceived proximity as decreased bear density. Social trust had the greatest indirect effect on acceptance of any variable in the model. Discussion: Findings suggest wildlife agencies could maintain public acceptance for bears through an integrated approach that combines actions to address bear-related perceptions and social trust along with active management of bear populations.

New York

U.S. Geological Survey Rewarding Environment Culture Study, 2002

In its 2001 review of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Research Council (NRC, p. 126) cautioned that ?high-quality personnel are essential for developing high-quality science information? and urged the USGS to ?devote substantial efforts to recruiting and retaining excellent staff.? Recognizing the importance of the NRC recommendation, the USGS has committed time and resources to create a rewarding work environment with the goal of achieving the following valued outcomes: ? USGS science vitality ? Customer satisfaction with USGS products and services ? Employee perceptions of the USGS as a rewarding place to work ? Heightened employee morale and commitment ? The ability to recruit and retain employees with critical skills To determine whether this investment of time and resources was proving to be successful, the USGS Human Resources Office conducted a Rewarding Environment Culture Study to answer the following four questions. ? Question 1: Does a rewarding work environment lead to the valued outcomes (identified above) that the USGS is seeking? ? Question 2: Which management, supervisory, and leadership behaviors contribute most to creating a rewarding work environment and to achieving the valued outcomes that the USGS is seeking? ? Question 3: Do USGS employees perceive that the USGS is a rewarding place to work? ? Question 4: What actions can and should be taken to enhance the USGS work environment? To begin the study, a conceptual model of a rewarding USGS environment was developed to test assumptions about a rewarding work environment. The Rewarding Environment model identifies the key components that are thought to contribute to a rewarding work environment and the valued outcomes that are thought to result from having a rewarding work environment. The 2002 Organizational Assessment Survey (OAS) was used as the primary data source for the study because it provided the most readily available data. Additional survey data were included as they became available The dividends of creating a rewarding work environment can be great. As the results of the USGS Rewarding Environment Culture Study of 2002 indicate, creating a rewarding work environment is an investment that can have an important impact on the outcomes that the USGS values?the vitality of our science, the satisfaction of our customers, and the morale, commitment, and performance of our employees.

Open-File Report