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Toward scoping reviews of individual bird species

Scoping reviews, in which the literature on a given topic is systematically collated and summarized, aid literature searches and highlight knowledge gaps on a given topic, thus hastening scientific progress and informing conservation efforts. Because much research and conservation is targeted at the species level, ornithology and bird conservation would benefit from scoping reviews of individual species. We present and apply a framework for scoping reviews for three disparate raptor species: California Condor Gymnogyps californianus , Harpy Eagle Harpia harpyja and Gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus . We consulted expert panels to develop appropriate search strings and lists of essential literature, i.e. ‘benchmark articles’. We searched Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar. Searches for California Condor, Harpy Eagle and Gyrfalcon returned 268, 138 and 343 articles, respectively, that discuss, review or collect empirical data for the focal species. Our searches returned all benchmark articles identified by species experts, indicating that the searches captured the most important work on each species. We coded each study according to the topic addressed, country and month in which data were collected. We also coded threats, stresses and conservation actions addressed by studies, following definitions used by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) during Red List assessments. Literature summaries for each species include the number of studies addressing certain topics, monthly timing of research and global maps of research focus. Our coding scheme revealed important knowledge gaps for each species. Effects of conservation actions on wild individuals were less studied for California Condors. Harpy Eagles were less studied outside of Brazil and Panama, and Gyrfalcons were less studied outside of their breeding season. Scoping reviews of the world's bird species would help to identify critical knowledge gaps, thereby aiding the global effort to assuage the sixth mass extinction.

Ibis↗

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on pygmy rabbits published from 1990 to 2020

Integrating recent scientific knowledge into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing scientific knowledge can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is creating a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate the integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here to frame the presentation. Sagebrush ecosystems throughout North America face management challenges including habitat loss and fragmentation. Brachylagus idahoensis (pygmy rabbits) are a sagebrush-obligate species that has experienced population declines and range contraction in recent decades. A disjunct population of pygmy rabbits in the Columbia Basin in Washington was listed as federally endangered in 2003. Due to their specialized habitat requirements and low dispersal ability, pygmy rabbits are a high priority for managers throughout their range. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, data products, and formal technical reports (such as U.S. Forest Service General Technical Reports and U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports) on pygmy rabbits published between January 1, 1990 and December 31, 2020. We first conducted a structured search of three reference databases and three government databases using the phrase “pygmy rabbit” or “ Brachylagus idahoensis .” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) publications that were not focused on North America, (4) publications that were not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (5) products for which pygmy rabbits were not a research focus or for which the study did not present new data or findings about pygmy rabbits. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified the management topics (for example, captive breeding, habitat characteristics, and population estimates) addressed by each product. We also noted which publications included new publicly available geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and a formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 2,285 total products, of which 105 met our criteria for inclusion. Sensitive/rare wildlife, behavior or demographics, site-scale habitat characteristics, habitat selection, and effects distances or spatial scale were the management topics most commonly addressed. The online version of this bibliography, Science for Resource Managers, will be searchable by topic, location, and year; it will include links to each original publication, where available. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore sagebrush landscapes and associated native species across the western United States.

Open-File Report↗

Observed and forecast flood-inundation mapping application-A pilot study of an eleven-mile reach of the White River, Indianapolis, Indiana

Near-real-time and forecast flood-inundation mapping products resulted from a pilot study for an 11-mile reach of the White River in Indianapolis. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Indiana Silver Jackets hazard mitigation taskforce members, the National Weather Service (NWS), the Polis Center, and Indiana University, in cooperation with the City of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Museum of Art, the Indiana Department of Homeland Security, and the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water. The pilot project showed that it is technically feasible to create a flood-inundation map library by means of a two-dimensional hydraulic model, use a map from the library to quickly complete a moderately detailed local flood-loss estimate, and automatically run the hydraulic model during a flood event to provide the maps and flood-damage information through a Web graphical user interface. A library of static digital flood-inundation maps was created by means of a calibrated two-dimensional hydraulic model. Estimated water-surface elevations were developed for a range of river stages referenced to a USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point colocated within the study reach. These maps were made available through the Internet in several formats, including geographic information system, Keyhole Markup Language, and Portable Document Format. A flood-loss estimate was completed for part of the study reach by using one of the flood-inundation maps from the static library. The Federal Emergency Management Agency natural disaster-loss estimation program HAZUS-MH, in conjunction with local building information, was used to complete a level 2 analysis of flood-loss estimation. A Service-Oriented Architecture-based dynamic flood-inundation application was developed and was designed to start automatically during a flood, obtain near real-time and forecast data (from the colocated USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point within the study reach), run the two-dimensional hydraulic model, and produce flood-inundation maps. The application used local building data and depth-damage curves to estimate flood losses based on the maps, and it served inundation maps and flood-loss estimates through a Web-based graphical user interface.

Indiana↗

Land-Cover Trends of the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, 1973-2000

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed and is implementing the Land Cover Trends project to estimate and describe the temporal and spatial distribution and variability of contemporary land-use and land-cover change in the United States. As part of the Land Cover Trends project, the purpose of this study was to assess land-use/land-cover change in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion for the period 1973 to 2000 using a probability sampling technique and satellite imagery. We randomly selected 36 100-km2 sample blocks to derive thematic images of land-use/land-cover for five dates of Landsat imagery (1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, 2000). We visually interpreted as many as 11 land-use/land-cover classes using a 60-meter minimum mapping unit from the five dates of imagery yielding four periods for analysis. Change-detection results from post-classification comparison of our mapped data showed that landscape disturbance from fire was the dominant change from 1973-2000. The second most-common change was forest disturbance resulting from harvest of timber resources by way of clear-cutting. The rates of forest regeneration from temporary fire and harvest disturbances coincided with the rates of disturbance from the previous period. Relatively minor landscape changes were caused by new development and reservoir drawdown. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that land ownership and the proportion of forest and developed cover types were significant determinants of the likelihood of direct human-induced change occurring in sampling units. Driving forces of change include land ownership, land management such as fire suppression policy, and demand for natural resources.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Aquatic assessment of the Pike Hill Copper Mine Superfund site, Corinth, Vermont

The Pike Hill Copper Mine Superfund site in Corinth, Orange County, Vermont, includes the Eureka, Union, and Smith mines along with areas of downstream aquatic ecosystem impairment. The site was placed on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) National Priorities List in 2004. The mines, which operated from about 1847 to 1919, contain underground workings, foundations from historical structures, several waste-rock piles, and some flotation tailings. The mine site is drained to the northeast by Pike Hill Brook, which includes several wetland areas, and to the southeast by an unnamed tributary that flows to the south and enters Cookville Brook. Both brooks eventually drain into the Waits River, which flows into the Connecticut River. The aquatic ecosystem at the site was assessed using a variety of approaches that investigated surface-water quality, sediment quality, and various ecological indicators of stream-ecosystem health. The degradation of surface-water quality is caused by elevated concentrations of copper, and to a lesser extent cadmium, with localized effects caused by aluminum, iron, and zinc. Copper concentrations in surface waters reached or exceeded the USEPA national recommended chronic water-quality criteria for the protection of aquatic life in all of the Pike Hill Brook sampling locations except for the location farthest downstream, in half of the locations sampled in the tributary to Cookville Brook, and in about half of the locations in one wetland area located in Pike Hill Brook. Most of these same locations also contained concentrations of cadmium that exceeded the chronic water-quality criteria. In contrast, surface waters at background sampling locations were below these criteria for copper and cadmium. Comparison of hardness-based and Biotic Ligand Model (BLM)-based criteria for copper yields similar results with respect to the extent or number of stations impaired for surface waters in the affected area. However, the BLM-based criteria are commonly lower values than the hardness-based criteria and thus suggest a greater degree or magnitude of impairment at the sampling locations. The riffle-habitat benthic invertebrate richness and abundance data correlate strongly with the extent of impact based on water quality for both brooks. Similarly, the fish community assessments document degraded conditions throughout most of Pike Hill Brook, whereas the data for the tributary to Cookville Brook suggest less degradation to this brook. The sediment environment shows similar extents of impairment to the surface-water environment, with most sampling locations in Pike Hill Brook, including the wetland areas, and the tributary to Cookville Brook affected. Sediment impairment is caused by elevated copper concentrations, although localized degradation due to elevated cadmium and zinc concentrations was documented on the basis of exceedances of probable effects concentrations (PECs). In contrast to impairment determined by exceedances of PECs, equilibrium-partitioning sediment benchmarks (based on simultaneously extracted metals, acid volatile sulfides, and total organic carbon) predict no toxic effects in sediments at the background locations and uncertain toxic effects throughout Pike Hill Brook and the tributary to Cookville Brook, with the exception of the most downstream Cookville Brook location, which indicated no toxic effects. Acute laboratory toxicity testing using the amphipod Hyalella azteca and the midge Chironomus dilutus on pore waters extracted from sediment in situ indicate impairment (based on tests with H. azteca ) at only one location in Pike Hill Brook and no impairment in the tributary to Cookville Brook. Chronic laboratory sediment toxicity testing using H. azteca and C. dilutus indicated toxicity in Pike Hill Brook at several locations in the lower reach and two locations in the tributary to Cookville Brook. Toxicity was not indicated for either species in sediment from the most acidic metal-rich location, likely due to the low lability of copper in that sediment, as indicated by a low proportion of extractable copper (simultaneously extracted metal (SEM) copper only 5 percent of total copper) and due to the flushing of acidic metal-rich pore water from experimental chambers as overlying test water was introduced before and replaced periodically during the toxicity tests. Depositional habitat invertebrate richness and abundance data generally agreed with the results of toxicity tests and with the extent of impact in the watersheds on the basis of sediment and pore waters. The information was used to develop an overall assessment of the impact of mine drainage on the aquatic system downstream from the Pike Hill copper mines. Most of Pike Hill Brook, including several wetland areas that are all downstream from the Eureka and Union mines, was found to be impaired on the basis of water-quality data and biological assessments of fish or benthic invertebrate communities. In contrast, only one location in the tributary to Cookville Brook, downstream from the Smith mine, is definitively impaired. The biological community begins to recover at the most downstream locations in both brooks due to natural attenuation from mixing with unimpaired streams. On the basis of water quality and biological assessment, the reference locations were of good quality. The sediment toxicity, chemistry, and aquatic community survey data suggest that the sediments could be a source of toxicity in Pike Hill Brook and the tributary to Cookville Brook. On the basis of water quality, sediment quality, and biologic communities, the impacts of mine drainage on the aquatic ecosystem health of the watersheds in the study area are generally consistent with the toxicity suggested from laboratory toxicity testing on pore water and sediments.

Vermont↗

Transmissivity estimated from brief aquifer tests of domestic wells and compared with bedrock lithofacies and position on hillsides in the Appalachian Plateau of New York

Procedures for undertaking and analyzing recovery from aquifer tests of 13 to 132 seconds (described in reports cited herein) were applied to 51 domestic drilled wells that penetrated bedrock outside major valleys in the part of the Appalachian Plateau of New York drained by the Susquehanna River. Transmissivities calculated from these tests ranged over three orders of magnitude in both the Catskill-Cattaraugus lithofacies (shales, mudstones, siltstones, medium to coarse sandstones, pebbly sandstones) and the Chemung-Hamilton lithofacies (shales, mudstones, siltstones, fine to medium sandstones). Median transmissivity values were 0.000425 foot squared per second (36.7 feet squared per day) in the Catskill-Cattaraugus lithofacies and 0.00055 foot squared per second (47.5 feet squared per day) in the Chemung-Hamilton lithofacies. The distributions of transmissivity values within the two lithofacies were likewise similar. The range and median values of transmissivity were also nearly the same on lower and midlevel hillsides and were only slightly greater on a few upper hillsides. Transmissivities estimated from such easily arranged and analyzed tests may be appropriate for estimating groundwater flux under the small gradients that prevail under natural conditions, but not under larger drawdowns and steeper gradients near clusters of domestic wells. Four of the 51 wells tested were also pumped for 10 to 32 minutes; analysis by the Theis recovery method yielded transmissivities consistent with the brief tests for 2 wells, but 7 to 9 times smaller for 2 wells. Transmissivity values estimated by the PICKINGmodel were not significantly different from values estimated by an automated application of the Picking method (PPC-Recovery) at a probability of 95 percent. Transmissivities calculated by either method from data for time intervals of 120 seconds or less may be of limited practical value because they apply only to a small volume of bedrock close to the pumped well.

New York↗

Human-in-the-Loop segmentation of earth surface imagery

Segmentation, or the classification of pixels (grid cells) in imagery, is ubiquitously applied in the natural sciences. Manual methods are often prohibitively time-consuming, especially those images consisting of small objects and/or significant spatial heterogeneity of colors or textures. Labeling complicated regions of transition that in Earth surface imagery are represented by collections of mixed-pixels, -textures, and -spectral signatures, can be especially error-prone because it is difficult to reliably unmix, identify and delineate consistently. However, the success of supervised machine learning (ML) approaches is entirely dependent on good label data. We describe a fast, semi-automated, method for interactive segmentation of N-dimensional (x, y, N) images into two-dimensional (x, y) label images. It uses human-in-the-loop ML to achieve consensus between the labeler and a model in an iterative workflow. The technique is reproducible; the sequence of decisions made by human labeler and ML algorithms can be encoded to file, so the entire process can be played back and new outputs generated with alternative decisions and/or algorithms. We illustrate the scientific potential of segmentation of imagery of diverse settings and image types using six case studies from river, estuarine, and open coast environments. These photographic and non-photographic imagery consist of 1- and 3-bands on regular and irregular grids ranging from centimeters to tens of meters. We demonstrate high levels of agreement in label images generated by several labelers on the same imagery, and make suggestions to achieve consensus and measure uncertainty, ideal for widespread application in training supervised ML for image segmentation.

Earth and Space Science↗

Methane hydrates

Gas hydrate is a solid, naturally occurring substance consisting predominantly of methane gas and water. Recent scientific drilling programs in Japan, Canada, the United States, Korea and India have demonstrated that gas hydrate occurs broadly and in a variety of forms in shallow sediments of the outer continental shelves and in Arctic regions. Field, laboratory and numerical modelling studies conducted to date indicate that gas can be extracted from gas hydrates with existing production technologies, particularly for those deposits in which the gas hydrate exists as pore-filling grains at high saturation in sand-rich reservoirs. A series of regional resource assessments indicate that substantial volumes of gas hydrate likely exist in sand-rich deposits. Recent field programs in Japan, Canada and in the United States have demonstrated the technical viability of methane extraction from gas-hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs and have investigated a range of potential production scenarios. At present, basic reservoir depressurisation shows the greatest promise and can be conducted using primarily standard industry equipment and procedures. Depressurisation is expected to be the foundation of future production systems; additional processes, such as thermal stimulation, mechanical stimulation and chemical injection, will likely also be integrated as dictated by local geological and other conditions. An innovative carbon dioxide and methane swapping technology is also being studied as a method to produce gas from select gas hydrate deposits. In addition, substantial additional volumes of gas hydrate have been found in dense arrays of grain-displacing veins and nodules in fine-grained, clay-dominated sediments; however, to date, no field tests, and very limited numerical modelling, have been conducted with regard to the production potential of such accumulations. Work remains to further refine: (1) the marine resource volumes within potential accumulations that can be produced through exploratory drilling programs; (2) the tools for gas hydrate detection and characterisation from remote sensing data; (3) the details of gas hydrate reservoir production behaviour through additional, well-monitored and longer duration field tests and (4) the understanding of the potential environmental impacts of gas hydrate resource development. The results of future production tests, in the context of varying market and energy supply conditions around the globe, will be the key to determine the ultimate timing and scale of the commercial production of natural gas from gas hydrates.

Book chapter↗

Arsenic in New England: Mineralogical and geochemical studies of sources and enrichment pathways

Detailed mineralogical, geochemical and radiogenic isotopic studies of iron-sulfide and secondary iron oxy-hydroxide minerals in natural bedrock in coastal Maine and New Hampshire test the link between arsenic-rich sulfide minerals in bedrock and secondary oxy-hydroxide minerals. Samples were selected from over 70 bedrock localities, including 22 within the regionally extensive and sulfide-mineral-rich Penobscot Formation and 10 associated with mineral deposits from coastal New Hampshire and Maine, and coupled with data from drill core collected at several sites including areas where well waters contain anomalous As abundances (e.g., Northport, ME). The data were used to establish a diversity of primary and secondary mineralogical hosts for arsenic in bedrock of this part of New England. The studies show that bedrock mineralogy is critical to contributing arsenic to groundwater and suggest a number of mineralogical pathways for arsenic that define weathering processes. The studies show that lead isotopic compositions of the sulfides and iron oxy-hydroxides overlap and establish a genetic link between the sulfides and secondary minerals. The data and interpretive results were presented at Arsenic in New England -- A multidisciplinary Scientific Conference, Manchester, New Hampshire, May 29-31, 2002, sponsored by the New Hampshire Consortium on Arsenic, are available in abstract and poster (full size = 84 by 36 inch sheet) formats.

Maine, New Hampshire↗

Viable long-term gas hydrate testing site confirmed on the Alaska north slope

In December 2018, data acquired in a Stratigraphic Test Well drilled from the 7-11-12 pad in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope confirmed the occurrence of two high-quality reservoirs fully saturated with gas hydrate. The drilling was the initial phase of a planned, three-well program designed to conduct an extended duration test of the response to gas hydrate reservoirs to controlled depressurization. The Stratigraphic Test Well (formally “PBU Hydrate-01”) was operated by the PBU Operator BP Exploration, (Alaska), Inc. (BPXA) using the Parker 272 drilling rig (Figure 1) through a Drilling Services Agreement executed with Petrotechnical Resources of Alaska (PRA) in association with a contract between NETL and PRA. The science program executed by BPXA was developed over a two-year period through extensive discussions and scientific evaluation undertaken by NETL, the Japan, Oil, Gas, and Metals, National Corporation (JOGMEC), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and PRA. The effort also benefitted greatly from the support of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources (ADNR) and the PBU Working Interest Owners (WIOs).

Alaska↗

An Inventory of Aquatic Macroinvertebrates and Calculation of Selected Biotic Indices for the U.S. Army Atterbury Reserve Forces Training Area near Edinburgh, Indiana, September 2000 - August 2002

An investigation was conducted to establish an inventory of aquatic macroinvertebrates in the streams at the U.S. Army Atterbury Reserve Forces Training Area near Edinburgh, Indiana. The data used to develop this inventory were collected during two sampling efforts in September 2000 and July and August 2002. The inventory identified 173 distinct taxa within the study-area streams. Although no rare or endangered species were found, one identified species, Cordulegaster maculata Selys (a twin-spotted spiketail dragonfly), is recognized by the Indiana Department of Natural Resources as being rare enough to warrant special concern. Biotic indices (indicators of water-quality conditions) were calculated from the macroinvertebrate data. Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera Richness Index values calculated for 23 samples collected from 16 sites ranged from 5 to 15, with more than 75 percent of the values falling within the range of 7 to 11. Hilsenhoff Biotic Index scores and Invertebrate Community Index scores calculated for samples collected at three sites indicate that water quality at these sites ranged from good to poor. The one site with a poor water-quality index score had a small drainage area. The small drainage area and dry conditions during the sampling period may have contributed to the poor scores calculated for this site.

Indiana↗

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis for streamgages in or near Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and the Wyoming Water Development Office, has developed standard methods of peak-flow frequency analysis for studies in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. These methods describe the implementation of national flood frequency guidelines described in Bulletin 17C ( https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5 ) for the four States and deviations from Bulletin 17C standard procedures to accommodate unusual hydrologic conditions. A U.S. Geological Survey data release accompanying this report ( https://doi.org/10.5066/P1WHRK8H ) provides example peak-flow frequency analyses for selected streamgages in the study area. The methods described in this report can be used to publish similar data releases for other streamgages in the study area.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

Pleistocene and Holocene landscape development of the South Platte River Corridor, Northeastern Colorado

This report provides a synthesis of geologic mapping and geochronologic research along the South Platte River between the town of Masters and the city of Fort Morgan, northeastern Colorado. This work was undertaken to better understand landscape development along this part of the river corridor. The focus is on times of rapid change within the fluvial system that had a marked effect on the landscape. The study area is susceptible to drought, which destabilizes vegetation and makes the landscape vulnerable to eolian activity. This is reflected in a landscape that is largely covered by eolian sand and lesser amounts of loess. Past glaciation of the river’s headwaters had a major influence on river discharge and sediment supply, as have major flood events particularly on unglaciated tributaries heading on the piedmont. In the mapping area, fluvial deposits of the South Platte River system span the Pliocene and early Pleistocene(?) deposits of Nussbaum Alluvium to present-day deposits of the active channel and floodplain. Results of the study indicate that along this stretch of the South Platte River, the early Pleistocene and first half of the middle Pleistocene were times of net incision, periodically interrupted by episodes of aggradation that resulted in deposition of alluvium that has been correlated to Rocky Flats Alluvium, Verdos Alluvium, and Slocum Alluvium. Net incision between depositional events formed a series of poorly preserved terrace deposits along the valley sides that are now largely covered by eolian deposits. Sometime after about 380 thousand years, the river cut a deep paleovalley into Upper Cretaceous Pierre Shale that was then filled with a thick sequence of inferred Louviers Alluvium (coeval with Bull Lake glaciation). Net aggradation continued during the late Pleistocene, resulting in burial of the Louviers paleovalley with a thick sequence of mainstream and sidestream Broadway Alluvium (coeval with Pinedale glaciation). Subsequent incision during the late Pleistocene–Holocene transition formed the Kersey (Broadway) terrace, whose riser forms a prominent bluff on the south side of the river valley. This episode of incision spanned a very short period and was followed by renewed aggradation that deposited the next-lower terrace alluvium (Kuner terrace alluvium). The Kuner terrace level was probably abandoned sometime around the beginning of the middle Holocene. Low terraces on the valley floor indicate that the river has been primarily cutting and backfilling laterally rather than incising during the late Holocene. Synthesis of geologic mapping and chronologic data generated in this study indicate that the South Platte River in northeastern Colorado likely was highly sensitive to rapidly changing environmental conditions or crossed threshold conditions that triggered rapid geomorphic response during major climate changes associated with the late Pleistocene–Holocene transition. Historical times have been another period marked by rapid incision, reflected by gully incision and headward erosion in tributary valleys draining the north side of the South Platte River. This historical erosion could be related at least in part to extensive construction of irrigation ditches and reservoirs in the late 1800s–early 1900s, which altered drainage paths and groundwater flow and could have amplified natural factors such as climate change or intrinsic geomorphic instabilities within the system.

Colorado↗

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major eruption under unfavorable prevailing winds may constitute a substantial threat to densely populated metropolitan Mexico City. While the 1982 El Chichón disaster was a national tragedy, it greatly accelerated volcanic emergency preparedness and multidisciplinary scientific studies of eruptive processes and products, not only at El Chichón but also at other explosive volcanoes in Mexico and elsewhere in the world.

Chiapas↗

Causal networks clarify productivity-richness interrelations, bivariate plots do not

Perhaps no other pair of variables in ecology has generated as much discussion as species richness and ecosystem productivity, as illustrated by the reactions by Pierce (2013) and others to Adler et al.'s (2011) report that empirical patterns are weak and inconsistent. Adler et al. (2011) argued we need to move beyond a focus on simplistic bivariate relationships and test mechanistic, multivariate causal hypotheses. We feel the continuing debate over productivity–richness relationships (PRRs) provides a focused context for illustrating the fundamental difficulties of using bivariate relationships to gain scientific understanding. Pierce (2013) disputes Adler et al.'s (2011) conclusion that bivariate productivity–richness relationships (PRRs) are ‘weak and variable’. He argues, instead, that relationships in the Adler et al. data are actually strong and, further, that failure to adhere to the humped-back model (HBM; sensu Grime 1979) threatens scientists' ability to advise conservationists. Here, we show that Pierce's reanalyses are invalid, that statistically significant boundary relations in the Adler et al. data are difficult to detect when proper methods are used and that his advice neither advances scientific understanding nor provides the quantitative forecasts actually needed by decision makers. We begin by examining Grimes' HBM through the lens of causal networks. We first translate the ideas contained in the HBM into a causal diagram, which shows explicitly how multiple processes are hypothesized to control biomass production and richness and their interrelationship. We then evaluate the causal diagram using structural equation modelling and example data from a published study of meadows in Finland. Formal analysis rejects the literal translation of the HBM and reveals additional processes at work. This exercise shows how the practice of abstracting systems as causal networks (i) clarifies possible hypotheses, (ii) permits explicit testing and (iii) provides more powerful and useful predictions. Building on the Finnish meadow example, we contrast the utility of bivariate plots compared with structural equation models for investigating underlying processes. Simulations illustrate the fallibility of bivariate analysis as a means of supporting one theory over another, while models based on causal networks can quantify the sensitivity of diversity patterns to both management and natural constraints. A key piece of Pierce's critique of Adler et al.'s conclusions relies on upper boundary regression which he claims to reveal strong relationships between production and richness in Adler et al.'s original data. We demonstrate that this technique shows strong associations in purely random data and is invalid for Adler et al.'s data because it depends on a uniform data distribution. We instead perform quantile regression on both the site-level summaries of the data and the plot-level data (using mixed-model quantile regression). Using a variety of nonlinear curve-fitting approaches, we were unable to detect a significant humped-shape boundary in the Adler et al. data. We reiterate that the bivariate productivity–richness relationships in Adler et al.'s data are weak and variable. We urge ecologists to consider productivity–richness relationships through the lens of causal networks to advance our understanding beyond bivariate analysis. Further, we emphasize that models based on a causal network conceptualization can also provide more meaningful guidance for conservation management than can a bivariate perspective. Measuring only two variables does not permit the evaluation of complex ideas nor resolve debates about underlying mechanisms.

Functional Ecology↗

Incorporating climate change into restoration decisions: Perspectives from dam removal practitioners

Incorporating climate change into conservation and restoration decisions is increasingly important for natural resource managers and restoration practitioners to effectively address the underlying drivers of ecosystem change. Small dam removal is an example of a restoration tool that may offer multiple socioeconomic and ecological benefits in streams, including promoting climate resilience. With the pace of dam removals increasing, practitioners and researchers are well-poised to incorporate climate change into future dam removal decisions. Therefore, we surveyed dam removal practitioners across 14 states in the eastern United States to understand current practices of small dam removals, factors driving restoration decisions, and how climate change knowledge is incorporated into these decisions. We also aimed to identify barriers to and opportunities for knowledge exchange between practitioners and researchers. Of the 100 respondents, most (79%) consider climate change in their dam removal decisions to some extent. Despite this, many reported a lack of clear, relevant, and accessible data linking small dam removal to climate resilience benefits. Dam removal practitioners also indicated that they most often rely on climate change information garnered from conversations with colleagues, rather than from scientific research products. These results suggest that the co-production of relevant, salient research questions and readily accessible and interpretable research products (e.g., technical summaries, open access articles) may encourage practitioners to incorporate climate change science more consistently and efficiently into dam removal decisions. These findings may also translate to other stream restoration efforts to inform knowledge exchange and improve restoration outcomes in a changing climate.

Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, ↗

U.S. Geological Survey climate science plan—Future research directions

Executive Summary Climate is the primary driver of environmental change and is a key consideration in defining science priorities conducted across all mission areas in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Recognizing the importance of climate change to its future research agenda, the USGS’s Climate Science Steering Committee requested the development of a Climate Science Plan to identify future research directions. Subject matter experts from across the Bureau formed the USGS Climate Science Plan Writing Team, which convened in September 2022 to identify and outline the major climate science topics of future concern and develop an integrated approach to conducting climate science in support of the USGS and U.S. Department of the Interior missions. The resulting USGS Climate Science Plan identifies three major priorities under which USGS climate science proceeds: (1) characterize climate change and associated impacts, (2) assess climate change risks and develop approaches to mitigate climate change, and (3) provide climate science tools and support. The Climate Science Plan identifies 12 specific goals to achieve the outcomes of the three priorities. Conduct long-term, broad-scale, and multidisciplinary measurements and monitoring and research activities to define, quantify, and predict the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems; Provide leadership to standardize measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas emissions, lateral carbon fluxes, and carbon sinks across lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI); Provide science capacity, training, tools, and infrastructure to Tribal partners; support Tribal-led science initiatives; Conduct climate change research in partnership with the broader climate science community; Develop improved data synthesis methods through collaborative and open science across mission areas and between the USGS and agency partners; Translate climate change impacts into risk assessments in support of risk management strategies; Develop new and improved risk assessments, models, and approaches for mitigating climate change, adapting to its impacts, and reducing uncertainties; design early warning systems for risk mitigation; Investigate climate change mitigation strategies and create decision science support tools to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation; Provide a framework that facilitates knowledge co-production needed to inform policy decisions; Provide access to USGS data and information through novel integration and visualization approaches; Build capacity within USGS and DOI through development of scientific training curricula; and Coordinate science and capacity building efforts broadly across the Federal Government. To achieve these goals, the USGS Climate Science Plan also outlines climate science guidelines—key elements for conducting climate-based research—as well as emerging opportunities to support successful climate science. The USGS Climate Science Plan provided in this circular will guide future research priorities and science-support investments, as well as continued development of the climate workforce for decades to come, ensuring that the USGS continues to serve as one of the Nation’s leading climate science agencies.

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Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Scientific Investigations Report↗