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At least 451 records · Page 25Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Trace elements in olivine fingerprint the source of 2018 magmas and shed light on explosive-effusive eruption cycles at Kīlauea Volcano

Understanding magma genesis and the evolution of intensive parameters (temperature, pressure, composition, degree of melting) in the mantle source of highly active volcanic systems is crucial for interpreting magma supply changes over time and recognizing cyclic behavior to anticipate future volcanic behavior. Major and trace elements in olivine are commonly used to study variations in mantle lithologies and melting conditions (e.g., temperature, pressure, oxygen fugacity) affecting the mantle over time. Here, we track the temporal evolution of primary melts through the most recent cycle of explosive and effusive eruptions at Kīlauea (Hawai‘i), which spans the last ∼500 years. We report major and trace elements in olivine from the last explosive period (∼1500 – early 1820’s Keanakāko‘i Tephra) and the most recent decade of the current effusive period (2018 LERZ, 2015–2018 Pu‘u‘ō‘ō, 2008–2018 lava lake and 2020 eruption in Halema‘uma‘u). Scandium concentrations in olivine allow characterizing changes in mantle source between 1500 and 2018, and suggest that the recent (2015–2018) magma feeding the Pu‘u‘ō‘ō cone did not significantly interact with the magma that erupted in the LERZ in 2018. The evolution of olivine and melt compositions over the past 500 years is not easily reconcilable with variations in mantle potential temperature, pressure of mantle melt pooling and storage, or oxygen fugacity. Instead, Sc, Mn, and Co concentrations and Ni/Mg ratio in high forsterite (Fo >87) olivine advocate for an increase in the proportion of clinopyroxene in the mantle source associated with a slightly higher degree of partial melting from 1500 to 2018. Changes in primitive melt compositions and degrees of mantle melting may well modulate magma supply to the crust and formation-replenishment of steady or ephemeral summit reservoirs, and thereby control transitions between explosive and effusive periods at Kīlauea. Analyzing trace elements in olivine at Kīlauea and elsewhere could therefore provide important clues on subtle changes occurring at the mantle level that might herald changes in volcanic behavior.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

The community code verification exercise for simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS)

Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation. The increasing complexity of SEAS modeling calls for extensive efforts to verify codes and advance these simulations with rigor, reproducibility, and broadened impact. In 2018, we initiated a community code-verification exercise for SEAS simulations, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center. Here, we report the findings from our first two benchmark problems (BP1 and BP2), designed to verify different computational methods in solving a mathematically well-defined, basic faulting problem. We consider a 2D antiplane problem, with a 1D planar vertical strike-slip fault obeying rate-and-state friction, embedded in a 2D homogeneous, linear elastic halfspace. Sequences of quasi-dynamic earthquakes with periodic occurrences (BP1) or bimodal sizes (BP2) and their interactions with aseismic slip are simulated. The comparison of results from 11 groups using different numerical methods show excellent agreements in long-term and coseismic fault behavior. In BP1, we found that truncated domain boundaries influence interseismic stressing, earthquake recurrence, and coseismic rupture, and that model agreement is only achieved with sufficiently large domain sizes. In BP2, we found that complexity of fault behavior depends on how well physical length scales related to spontaneous nucleation and rupture propagation are resolved. Poor numerical resolution can result in artificial complexity, impacting simulation results that are of potential interest for characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake size distributions, moment release, and recurrence times. These results inform the development of more advanced SEAS models, contributing to our further understanding of earthquake system dynamics.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2019

Chlorinated byproducts of neonicotinoids and their metabolites: An unrecognized human exposure potential?

We recently reported the initial discovery of neonicotinoid pesticides in drinking water and their potential for transformation through chlorination and alkaline hydrolysis during water treatment. The objectives of this research were: (1) to determine if neonicotinoid metabolites are relevant to drinking water exposure and (2) to identify the products formed from chlorination of neonicotinoids and their metabolites. Desnitro-imidacloprid and imidacloprid-urea, two known metabolites of imidacloprid, are documented for the first time in drinking water. Desnitro-imidacloprid was present above the lower level of detection (0.03 ng/L) in 67% of samples (six of nine) from drinking water systems but detectable in all samples (up to 0.6 ng/L). Although concentrations of desnitro-imidacloprid were lower than concentrations of the parent neonicotinoids, desnitro-imidacloprid exhibits significantly greater mammalian toxicity than imidacloprid. Using LC-HR-ToF-MS/MS analysis of results from laboratory experiments, we propose structures for novel transformation products resulting from the chlorination of clothianidin, imidacloprid, desnitro-imidacloprid, imidacloprid-urea, and hydrolysis products of thiamethoxam. Formation of chlorinated neonicotinoid byproducts occurs at time scales relevant to water treatment and/or distribution for the imidacloprid metabolites ( t 1/2 values from 2.4 min to 1.0 h) and thiamethoxam hydrolysis products (4.8 h). Neonicotinoid metabolites in finished drinking water and potential formation of novel disinfection byproducts during treatment and/or distribution are relevant to evaluating the exposure and potential impacts of neonicotinoids on human health.

Environmental Science & Technology Letters↗
USGS2015

Quantifying 10 years of improved earthquake-monitoring performance in the Caribbean region

Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and adjacent regions during the past 500 years. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Hundreds of thousands are currently threatened along the Caribbean coastlines. Were a great tsunamigenic earthquake to occur in the Caribbean region today, the effects would potentially be catastrophic due to an increasingly vulnerable region that has seen significant population increases in the past 40–50 years and currently hosts an estimated 500,000 daily beach visitors from North America and Europe, a majority of whom are not likely aware of tsunami and earthquake hazards. Following the magnitude 9.1 Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake of 26 December 2004, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE‐EWS) was established and developed minimum performance standards for the detection and analysis of earthquakes. In this study, we model earthquake‐magnitude detection threshold and P‐wave detection time and demonstrate that the requirements established by the UNESCO ICG CARIBE‐EWS are met with 100% of the network operating. We demonstrate that earthquake‐monitoring performance in the Caribbean Sea region has improved significantly in the past decade as the number of real‐time seismic stations available to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami warning centers have increased. We also identify weaknesses in the current international network and provide guidance for selecting the optimal distribution of seismic stations contributed from existing real‐time broadband national networks in the region.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2011

More than a century of bathymetric observations and present-day shallow sediment characterization in Belfast Bay, Maine, USA: Implications for pockmark field longevity

Mechanisms and timescales responsible for pockmark formation and maintenance remain uncertain, especially in areas lacking extensive thermogenic fluid deposits (e.g., previously glaciated estuaries). This study characterizes seafloor activity in the Belfast Bay, Maine nearshore pockmark field using (1) three swath bathymetry datasets collected between 1999 and 2008, complemented by analyses of shallow box-core samples for radionuclide activity and undrained shear strength, and (2) historical bathymetric data (report and smooth sheets from 1872, 1947, 1948). In addition, because repeat swath bathymetry surveys are an emerging data source, we present a selected literature review of recent studies using such datasets for seafloor change analysis. This study is the first to apply the method to a pockmark field, and characterizes macro-scale (>5 m) evolution of tens of square kilometers of highly irregular seafloor. Presence/absence analysis yielded no change in pockmark frequency or distribution over a 9-year period (1999–2008). In that time pockmarks did not detectably enlarge, truncate, elongate, or combine. Historical data indicate that pockmark chains already existed in the 19th century. Despite the lack of macroscopic changes in the field, near-bed undrained shear-strength values of less than 7 kPa and scattered downcore 137 Cs signatures indicate a highly disturbed setting. Integrating these findings with independent geophysical and geochemical observations made in the pockmark field, it can be concluded that (1) large-scale sediment resuspension and dispersion related to pockmark formation and failure do not occur frequently within this field, and (2) pockmarks can persevere in a dynamic estuarine setting that exhibits minimal modern fluid venting. Although pockmarks are conventionally thought to be long-lived features maintained by a combination of fluid venting and minimal sediment accumulation, this suggests that other mechanisms may be equally active in maintaining such irregular seafloor morphology. One such mechanism could be upwelling within pockmarks induced by near-bed currents.

Maine↗
USGS2023

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km 2 ), 2015 (1556 km 2 ), and 2008 (1549 km 2 ). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

California↗
USGS2026

Magnitude conversion relations create substantial differences in seismic hazard models

Earthquake catalogs are essential data inputs for seismic hazard modeling. Because earthquake magnitudes are reported in a variety of types (e.g., local magnitudes and moment magnitudes), magnitude conversion relationships must be used to convert the different magnitude types present in a catalog to a uniform magnitude type to avoid biases in the hazard computation. However, these conversion relationships are often uncertain and have been shown to sometimes perform poorly. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of the gridded seismicity component of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) to the catalog conversion equations in the Eastern United States. In the 2023 NSHM, magnitudes of various types were converted to moment magnitudes using equations developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities (CEUS‐SSCn), based on least‐squares (LS) regressions made using data from a catalog containing events up through 2008. We recompute these equations using events in the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog with multiple magnitudes from 2000 to 2023. Although we prefer the use of orthogonal regressions for our datasets, LS regressions produce broadly similar results, with both approaches exhibiting large deviations from the CEUS‐SSCn conversions, especially at smaller magnitudes. We compare the spatial distribution of annual rates using three different models: (1) the 2023 NSHM conversions, (2) our updated conversions, and (3) no conversions. We find that the choice of conversions leads to substantial differences in the rate forecasts, which can greatly impact the seismic hazard model, particularly in regions with low‐seismicity rates such as the Eastern United States, where the hazard is dominated by gridded seismicity rather than a fault model.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2022

Western U.S. deformation models for the 2023 update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

This report describes geodetic and geologic information used to constrain deformation models of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), a set of deformation models to interpret these data, and their implications for earthquake rates in the western United States. Recent updates provide a much larger data set of Global Positioning System crustal velocities than used in the 2014 NSHM, as well as hundreds of new faults considered as active sources for the 2023 NSHM. These data are interpreted by four geodetic models of deformation that estimate fault slip rates and their uncertainties together with off‐fault moment release rates. Key innovations in the 2023 NSHM relative to past practice include (1) the addition of two new (in addition to two existing) deformation models, (2) the revision and expansion of the geologic slip rate database, (3) accounting for fault creep through development of a creep‐rate model that is employed by the four deformation models, and (4) accounting for time‐dependent earthquake‐cycle effects through development of viscoelastic models of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas fault and the Cascadia subduction zone. The effort includes development of a geologic deformation model that complements the four geodetic models. The current deformation models provide a new assessment of outstanding discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates, at the same time highlighting the need for both geologic and geodetic slip rates to robustly inform the earthquake rate model.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2024

On algorithmically determined versus traditional macroseismic intensity assignments

The utility of macroseismic data, defined as the effects of earthquakes on humans and the built environment, has been increasingly recognized following the advent of online systems that now produce unprecedented volumes of macroseismic intensity information. Contributed reports from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system ( Wald et al ., 1999 ) are used to generate intensity values with an algorithm based on seminal work by Dengler and Dewey (1998) . The algorithm was developed initially to reproduce intensity values assigned by expert opinion using questionnaire results collected by telephone survey. In this article, I discuss reasons why intensity values from (self‐selected) DYFI responses can differ from values that would be assigned by expert opinion given more complete data from randomly selected participants. For example, with the data used by Dengler and Dewey (1998) , intensities near 4 could be determined from the percentage of people who felt shaking in each town. With less spatially rich data from self‐selected participants, this percentage often cannot be determined reliably. Audible noises are key additional diagnostic criteria for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 4, but, although the DYFI system includes a question about noise, following Dengler and Dewey (1998) , the DYFI algorithm does not include a noise indicator. At the upper end of the scale, as defined the DYFI algorithm yields a maximum intensity value of 9.05, nominally corresponding to peak ground acceleration of 75% g . These and other factors can result in DYFI values that are low compared to traditional MMI values assigned using expert opinion, even absent factors that can bias traditional MMI assignments. Modern ground‐motion intensity conversion equations determined using DYFI intensities are expected to be appropriate for DYFI intensities, but the results of this study suggest that biases may be introduced if DYFI and traditional intensities are assumed to be interchangeable.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 2025 Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake and updated length scaling of supershear earthquakes

The 2025 M w 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake ruptured 475 km of the central Sagaing fault and is the longest continental strike-slip rupture on record. The observed rupture length is 1.6–4.7 times the value expected (100–300 km) from existing length-magnitude scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes. The earthquake resulted from shallow dextral faulting and ruptured bilaterally with supershear speeds south of the epicenter, rupturing close to three major cities in Myanmar and exposing over six million people to violent or extreme shaking. We report on the surface rupture character, length, and slip distribution based on sub-pixel correlation of Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Planet Dove (3 m) optical images and visual analysis of SkySat and WorldView (0.3–0.5 m) optical images. The earthquake had moderate surface slip (average = 3.3 m, maximum = 5.6 m, 25–75% range = 3.0–4.0 m), narrow deformation zone width (1–10 pixels in sub-pixel correlation and up to 190 meters for the detailed surface rupture mapping), and simple fault geometry (no stepovers or large changes in strike, 87% of the rupture that was mapped in detail is single-stranded). We attribute the extreme length of the Mandalay earthquake to supershear rupture speed, simple fault geometry, narrow down-dip width, and moderate surface slip. Based on a compilation of 25 supershear strike-slip earthquakes ( M w 6.5–8.6; 1979–2025), we find that the rupture length of supershear earthquakes does not fit empirical scaling relationships for strike-slip earthquakes that predict length from magnitude. A length-magnitude scaling relationship based on supershear earthquakes has a best fit of log 10 (surface rupture length) = 0.89 M w – 4.44, indicating that supershear earthquakes tend to be longer than their subshear counterparts for any given magnitude and thus may expose a greater population to shaking.

Mandalay↗
USGS1997

The Hf isotopic composition of ferromanganese nodules and crusts and hydrothermal manganese deposits: Implications for seawater Hf

We present Hf and Pb isotopic data, and chemical compositions of the outermost layers of marine ferromanganese deposits of different types (hydrogenous and hydrothermal) with a worldwide distribution. The Hf isotopic compositions display a broad range and refine previously reported regional differences as follows: Atlantic Ocean ɛ Hf = −4to+2, Indian Ocean ɛ Hf = +2to+4, Pacific Ocean ɛ Hf = +3to+10. The most radiogenic Hf isotopic compositions in the Pacific samples are for hydrothermal manganese deposits that also have low 207 Pb 204 Pb, demonstrating that this signature reflects a contribution from hydrothermal venting of Hf leached from oceanic volcanic rocks rather than from riverine inputs, volcanic ash, or eolian dust. Hafnium concentrations in the deposits increase from 20 ppb to 20 ppm with decreasing ɛ Hf , The Hf and Pb isotopic compositions for ferromanganese crusts define an apparent mixing trend between literature values of average continental crust and MORB. The range in ɛ Hf for ferromanganese crusts is narrower than it is for 206 Pb 204 Pb compared to the differences in isotopic composition of the sources of Hf and Pb. This is consistent with Hf having a longer residence time than Pb. The concentration of Hf in ferromanganese crusts has been found to co-vary with growth rate, and inversely correlates with Hf isotopic compositions. Hf isotope ratios may be used to determine not only the source of Hf, but possibly the source of Fe and Mn. Measurements of ɛ Hf and Hf concentrations in nodule tops, bottoms and associated sediments show that the ɛ Hf of nodules is sensitive to sedimentary oxic and sub-oxic diagenetic processes and thus most nodules may not reliably reflect the isotopic composition of Hf in seawater.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2010

Low-altitude aerial color digital photographic survey of the San Andreas Fault

Ever since 1858, when Gaspard-Félix Tournachon (pen name Félix Nadar) took the first aerial photograph (Professional Aerial Photographers Association 2009), the scientific value and popular appeal of such pictures have been widely recognized. Indeed, Nadar patented the idea of using aerial photographs in mapmaking and surveying. Since then, aerial imagery has flourished, eventually making the leap to space and to wavelengths outside the visible range. Yet until recently, the availability of such surveys has been limited to technical organizations with significant resources. Geolocation required extensive time and equipment, and distribution was costly and slow. While these situations still plague older surveys, modern digital photography and lidar systems acquire well-calibrated and easily shared imagery, although expensive, platform-specific software is sometimes still needed to manage and analyze the data. With current consumer-level electronics (cameras and computers) and broadband internet access, acquisition and distribution of large imaging data sets are now possible for virtually anyone. In this paper we demonstrate a simple, low-cost means of obtaining useful aerial imagery by reporting two new, high-resolution, low-cost, color digital photographic surveys of selected portions of the San Andreas fault in California. All pictures are in standard jpeg format. The first set of imagery covers a 92-km-long section of the fault in Kern and San Luis Obispo counties and includes the entire Carrizo Plain. The second covers the region from Lake of the Woods to Cajon Pass in Kern, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties (151 km) and includes Lone Pine Canyon soon after the ground was largely denuded by the Sheep Fire of October 2009. The first survey produced a total of 1,454 oblique digital photographs (4,288 x 2,848 pixels, average 6 Mb each) and the second produced 3,762 nadir images from an elevation of approximately 150 m above ground level (AGL) on the southeast leg and 300 m AGL on the northwest leg. Spatial resolution (pixel size or ground sample distance) is a few centimeters. Time and geographic coordinates of the aircraft were automatically written into the exchangeable image file format (EXIF) data within each jpeg photograph. A few hours after acquisition and validation, the photographs were uploaded to a publicly accessible Web page. The goal was to obtain quick-turnaround, low-cost, high-resolution, overlapping, and contiguous imagery for use in planning field operations, and to provide imagery for a wide variety of land use and educational studies. This work was carried out in support of ongoing geological research on the San Andreas fault, but the technique is widely applicable beyond geology.

California↗
USGS2016

Short-period volcanic gas precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

Volcanic eruptions involving interaction with water are amongst the most violent and unpredictable geologic phenomena on Earth. Phreatic eruptions are exceptionally difficult to forecast by traditional geophysical techniques. Here we report on short-term precursory variations in gas emissions related to phreatic blasts at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, as measured with an in situ multiple gas analyzer that was deployed at the edge of the erupting lake. Gas emitted from this hyper-acid crater lake approaches magmatic values of SO 2 /CO 2 1–6 days prior to eruption. The SO 2 flux derived from magmatic degassing through the lake is measureable by differential optical absorption spectrometry (sporadic campaign measurements), which allows us to constrain lake gas output and input for the major gas species during eruptive and non-eruptive periods. We can further calculate power supply to the hydrothermal system using volatile mass balance and thermodynamics, which indicates that the magmatic heat flux into the shallow hydrothermal system increases from ∼27 MW during quiescence to ∼59 MW during periods of phreatic events. These transient pulses of gas and heat from the deeper magmatic system generate both phreatic eruptions and the observed short-term changes in gas composition, because at high gas flux scrubbing of sulfur by the hydrothermal system is both kinetically and thermodynamically inhibited whereas CO 2 gas is always essentially inert in hyperacid conditions. Thus, the SO 2 /CO 2 of lake emissions approaches magmatic values as gas and power supply to the sub-limnic hydrothermal system increase, vaporizing fluids and priming the hydrothermal system for eruption. Our results suggest that high-frequency real-time gas monitoring could provide useful short-term eruptive precursors at volcanoes prone to phreatic explosions.

Poás Volcano↗
USGS1988

Sr and Nd isotopic and trace element compositions of Quaternary volcanic centers of the Southern Andes

Isotopic compositions of samples from six Quaternary volcanoes located in the northern and southern extremities of the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ, 33–46°S) of the Andes and from four centers in the Austral Volcanic Zone (AVZ, 49–54°S) range for 87 Sr/ 86 Sr from 0.70280 to 0.70591 and for 143 Nd/ 144 Nd from 0.51314 to 0.51255. The ranges are significantly greater than previously reported from the southern Andes but are different from the isotopic compositions of volcanoes in the central and northern Andes. Basalts and basaltic andesites from three centers just north of the Chile Rise-Trench triple junction have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr , 143 Nd/ 144 Nd , La/Yb , Ba/La , and Hf/Lu that lie within the relatively restricted ranges of the basic magmas erupted from the volcanic centers as far north as 35°S in the SVZ of the Andes. The trace element and Sr and Nd isotopic characteristics of these magmas may be explained by source region contamination of subarc asthenosphere, with contaminants derived from subducted pelagic sediments and seawater-altered basalts by dehydration of subducted oceanic lithosphere. In the northern extremity of the SVZ between 33° and 34°S, basaltic andesites and andesites have higher 87 Sr/ 86 Sr , Rb/Cs , and Hf/Lu , and lower 143 Nd/ 144 Nd than basalts and basaltic andesites erupted farther south in the SVZ, which suggests involvement of components derived from the continental crust. In the AVZ, the most primitive sample, high-Mg andesite from the southernmost volcanic center in the Andes (54°S) has Sr and Nd isotopic compositions and KR/b and Ba/La similar to MORB. The high La/Yb of this sample suggests formation by small degrees of partial melting of subducted MORB with garnet as a residue. Samples from centers farther north in the AVZ show a regionally regular northward increase in SiO 2 , K 2 O, Rb, Ba, Ba/La , and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr/ and decrease in MgO, Sr, KR/b , Rb/Cs , and 143 Nd/ 144 Nd , suggesting increasingly greater degrees of fractional crystallization and associated intra-crustal contamination.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2005

Tilt recorded by a portable broadband seismograph: The 2003 eruption of Anatahan Volcano, Mariana Islands

The horizontal components of broadband seismographs are highly sensitive to tilt, suggesting that commonly deployed portable broadband seismic sensors may record important tilt information associated with volcanic eruptions. We report on a tilt episode that coincides with the first historical eruption of Anatahan volcano on May 10, 2003. The tilt was recorded by a Strekheisen STS‐2 seismograph deployed in an underground insulated chamber 7 km west of the active vent. An ultra‐long period signal with a dominant period of several hours was recorded on the E‐W component beginning at 06:20 GMT on May 10, which coincides with the onset of continuous volcano‐tectonic (VT) seismicity and is one hour prior to the eruption time estimated by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center. The signal is much smaller on the N‐S component and absent on the vertical component, suggesting it results from tilt that is approximately radial with respect to the active vent. An estimate of tilt as a function of time is recovered by deconvolving the record to acceleration and dividing by the acceleration of gravity. The record indicates an initial episode of tilt downward away from the volcanic center from 06:20–09:30 GMT, which we interpret as inflation of the shallow volcanic source. The tilt reverses, recording deflation, from 09:30 until 17:50, after which the tilt signal becomes insignificant. The inflation corresponds to a period of numerous VT events, whereas fewer events were recorded during the deflation episode, and the VT events subsequently resumed after the end of the deflationary tilt. The maximum tilt of 2 microradians can be used to estimate the volume of the source inflation (∼2 million m 3 ), assuming a simple Mogi source model. These calculations are consistent with other estimates of source volume if reasonable source depths are assumed. Examination of broadband records of other eruptions may disclose further previously unrecognized tilt signals. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2024

Multinational evaluation of genetic diversity indicators for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Under the recently adopted Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, 196 Parties committed to reporting the status of genetic diversity for all species. To facilitate reporting, three genetic diversity indicators were developed, two of which focus on processes contributing to genetic diversity conservation: maintaining genetically distinct populations and ensuring populations are large enough to maintain genetic diversity. The major advantage of these indicators is that they can be estimated with or without DNA-based data. However, demonstrating their feasibility requires addressing the methodological challenges of using data gathered from diverse sources, across diverse taxonomic groups, and for countries of varying socio-economic status and biodiversity levels. Here, we assess the genetic indicators for 919 taxa, representing 5271 populations across nine countries, including megadiverse countries and developing economies. Eighty-three percent of the taxa assessed had data available to calculate at least one indicator. Our results show that although the majority of species maintain most populations, 58% of species have populations too small to maintain genetic diversity. Moreover, genetic indicator values suggest that IUCN Red List status and other initiatives fail to assess genetic status, highlighting the critical importance of genetic indicators.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2010

Geochronology and paleoclimatic implications of the last deglaciation of the Mauna Kea Ice Cap, Hawaii

We present new 3He surface exposure ages on moraines and bedrock near the summit of Mauna Kea, Hawaii, which refine the age of the Mauna Kea Ice Cap during the Local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM) and identify a subsequent fluctuation of the ice margin. The 3He ages, when combined with those reported previously, indicate that the local ice-cap margin began to retreat from its LLGM extent at 20.5??2.5ka, in agreement with the age of deglaciation determined from LLGM moraines elsewhere in the tropics. The ice-cap margin receded to a position at least 3km upslope for ~4.5-5.0kyr before readvancing nearly to its LLGM extent. The timing of this readvance at ~15.4ka corresponds to a large reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) following Heinrich Event 1. Subsequent ice-margin retreat began at 14.6??1.9ka, corresponding to a rapid resumption of the AMOC and onset of the B??lling warm interval, with the ice cap melting rapidly to complete deglaciation. Additional 3He ages obtained from a flood deposit date the catastrophic outburst of a moraine-dammed lake roughly coeval with the Younger Dryas cold interval, suggesting a more active hydrological cycle on Mauna Kea at this time. A coupled mass balance and ice dynamics model is used to constrain the climate required to generate ice caps of LLGM and readvance sizes. The depression of the LLGM equilibrium line altitude requires atmospheric cooling of 4.5??1??C, whereas the mass balance modeling indicates an accompanying increase in precipitation of as much as three times that of present. We hypothesize (1) that the LLGM temperature depression was associated with global cooling, (2) that the temperature depression that contributed to the readvance occurred in response to an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Atlantic, and (3) that the precipitation enhancement associated with both events occurred in response to a southward shift in the position of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Such a shift in the ITCZ would have allowed midlatitude cyclones to reach Mauna Kea more frequently which would have increased precipitation at high elevations and caused additional cooling. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2003

Crystallisation ages in coeval silicic magma bodies: 238U-230Th disequilibrium evidence from the Rotoiti and earthquake flat eruption deposits, Taupo volcanic zone, New Zealand

The timescales over which moderate to large bodies of silicic magma are generated and stored are addressed here by studies of two geographically adjacent, successive eruption deposits in the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. The earlier, caldera-forming Rotoiti eruption (>100 km3 magma) at Okataina volcano was followed, within months at most, by the Earthquake Flat eruption (??? 10 km3 magma) from nearby Kapenga volcano; both generated nonwelded ignimbrite and coeval widespread fall deposits. The Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat deposits are both crystal-rich high-silica rhyolites, with sparse glass-bearing granitoid fragments also occurring in Rotoiti lag breccias generated during caldera collapse. Here we report 238U-230Th disequilibrium data on whole rocks and mineral separates from representative Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat pumices and the co-eruptive Rotoiti granitoid fragments using TIMS and in situ zircon analyses by SIMS. Multiple-grain zircon-controlled crystallisation ages measured by TIMS from the Rotoiti pumice range from 69??3 ka (<63 ?? size fraction) to 76??6 (125-250 ?? fraction), with a weighted mean of all size fractions of 71??2 ka. SIMS model ages from single zircons in pumice range from 50??24 ka to > 350 ka, with a pronounced peak at 70-90 ka. The weighted mean of isochrons is 83??14 ka, in accord with the TIMS data. One glass-bearing Rotoiti granitoid clast yielded an age of 57??8 ka by TIMS (controlled by Th-rich phases that, however, are not apparently present in the juvenile pumices). Another glass-bearing Rotoiti granitoid yielded SIMS zircon model ages peaking at 60-90 ka, having a similar age distribution to the pumice. Age data from pumices are consistent with a published 64??4 ka eruptive age (now modified to 62??2 ka), but chemical and/or mineralogical data imply that the granitoid lithics are not largely crystalline Rotoiti rhyolite, but instead represent contemporaneous partly molten intrusions reflecting different sources in their chemistries and mineralogies. Similarly, although the Earthquake Flat eruption immediately followed (and probably was triggered by) the Rotoiti event, age data from juvenile material are significantly different. A multiple-grain zircon-controlled crystallisation age measured by TIMS from a representative pumice is 173??5 ka, while SIMS model ages range from 70-26+34 ka to >350 ka, with a peak at 105 ka. These age data coupled with previously published geochemical and isotopic data show that the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat deposits were erupted from independent, unconnected magma bodies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗