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Evaluation of gas production potential from gas hydrate deposits in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska using numerical simulations

An evaluation of the gas production potential of Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation in the eastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) of Alaska North Slope (ANS) is conducted using numerical simulations, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gas hydrate Life Cycle Assessment program. A field scale reservoir model for Sunlight Peak is developed using Advanced Processes & Thermal Reservoir Simulator (STARS) that approximates the production design and response of this gas hydrate field. The reservoir characterization is based on available structural maps and the seismic-derived hydrate saturation map of the study region. A 3D reservoir model, with heterogeneous distribution of the reservoir properties (such as porosity, permeability and vertical hydrate saturation), is developed by correlating the data from the Mount Elbert well logs. Production simulations showed that the Sunlight Peak prospect has the potential of producing 1.53 × 10 9 ST m 3 of gas in 30 years by depressurization with a peak production rate of around 19.4 × 10 4 ST m 3 /day through a single horizontal well. To determine the effect of uncertainty in reservoir properties on the gas production, an uncertainty analysis is carried out. It is observed that for the range of data considered, the overall cumulative production from the Sunlight Peak will always be within the range of ±4.6% error from the overall mean value of 1.43 × 10 9 ST m 3 . A sensitivity analysis study showed that the proximity of the reservoir from the base of permafrost and the base of hydrate stability zone (BHSZ) has significant effect on gas production rates. The gas production rates decrease with the increase in the depth of the permafrost and the depth of BHSZ. From the overall analysis of the results it is concluded that Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation behaves differently than other Class III reservoirs (Class III reservoirs are composed of a single layer of hydrate with no underlying zone of mobile fluids) due to its smaller thickness and high angle of dip.

Alaska

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

California

Genetic population structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes

We quantified genetic relationships among Muskellunge Esox masquinongy from 15 locations in the Great Lakes to determine the extent and distribution of measurable population structure and to identify appropriate spatial scales for fishery management and genetic conservation. We hypothesized that Muskellunge from each area represented genetically distinct populations, which would be evident from analyses of genotype data. A total of 691 Muskellunge were sampled ( n = 10–127/site) and genetic data were collected at 13 microsatellite loci. Results from a suite of analyses (including pairwise genetic differentiation, Bayesian admixture prediction, analysis of molecular variance, and tests of isolation by distance) indicated the presence of nine distinct genetic groups, including two that were approximately 50 km apart. Geographic proximity and low habitat complexity seemed to facilitate genetic similarity among areas, whereas Muskellunge from areas of greater habitat heterogeneity exhibited high differentiation. Muskellunge from most areas contained private alleles, and mean within-area genetic variation was similar to that reported for other freshwater fishes. Management programs aimed at conserving the broader diversity and long-term sustainability of Muskellunge could benefit by considering the genetically distinct groups as independent fisheries, and individual spawning and nursery habitats could subsequently be protected to conserve the evolutionary potential of Muskellunge.

Great Lakes

A comparison of survey methods for documenting presence of Myotis leibii (Eastern Small-Footed Bats) at roosting areas in Western Virginia

Many aspects of foraging and roosting habitat of Myotis leibii (Eastern Small-Footed Bat), an emergent rock roosting-obligate, are poorly described. Previous comparisons of effectiveness of acoustic sampling and mist-net captures have not included Eastern Small-Footed Bat. Habitat requirements of this species differ from congeners in the region, and it is unclear whether survey protocols developed for other species are applicable. Using data from three overlapping studies at two sampling sites in western Virginia’s central Appalachian Mountains, detection probabilities were examined for three survey methods (acoustic surveys with automated identification of calls, visual searches of rock crevices, and mist-netting) for use in the development of “best practices” for future surveys and monitoring. Observer effects were investigated using an expanded version of visual search data. Results suggested that acoustic surveys with automated call identification are not effective for documenting presence of Eastern Small-Footed Bats on talus slopes (basal detection rate of 0%) even when the species is known to be present. The broadband, high frequency echolocation calls emitted by Eastern Small-Footed Bat may be prone to attenuation by virtue of their high frequencies, and these factors, along with signal reflection, lower echolocation rates or possible misidentification to other bat species over talus slopes may all have contributed to poor acoustic survey success. Visual searches and mist-netting of emergent rock had basal detection probabilities of 91% and 75%, respectively. Success of visual searches varied among observers, but detection probability improved with practice. Additionally, visual searches were considerably more economical than mist-netting.

Virginia Journal of Science

Multiscale analysis of river networks using the R package linbin

Analytical tools are needed in riverine science and management to bridge the gap between GIS and statistical packages that were not designed for the directional and dendritic structure of streams. We introduce linbin, an R package developed for the analysis of riverscapes at multiple scales. With this software, riverine data on aquatic habitat and species distribution can be scaled and plotted automatically with respect to their position in the stream network or—in the case of temporal data—their position in time. The linbin package aggregates data into bins of different sizes as specified by the user. We provide case studies illustrating the use of the software for (1) exploring patterns at different scales by aggregating variables at a range of bin sizes, (2) comparing repeat observations by aggregating surveys into bins of common coverage, and (3) tailoring analysis to data with custom bin designs. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of linbin for summarizing patterns throughout an entire stream network, and we analyze the diel and seasonal movements of tagged fish past a stationary receiver to illustrate how linbin can be used with temporal data. In short, linbin enables more rapid analysis of complex data sets by fisheries managers and stream ecologists and can reveal underlying spatial and temporal patterns of fish distribution and habitat throughout a riverscape.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Regional patterns of anthropogenic influences on streams and rivers in the conterminous United States, from the early 1970s to 2012

This paper introduces a dataset containing consistent time-series measurements of anthropogenic activities potentially affecting stream quality across the conterminous United States and summarizes the most noteworthy trends from 61 variables in 16 categories. Data include measures of atmospheric deposition, agricultural production, livestock, urbanization, irrigation, land use, nutrients from fertilizer, dams/reservoirs, and pesticide use, among others. The trend periods range from 10 to 40 years, beginning as early as 1970 and ending in 2012. Detailed summaries are provided for 1992-2012. Key results include: increase of urbanization and ‘exurbanization’, particularly in the South, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic; increases in crop production and fertilizer use in much of the Midwest; increases in the concentration of livestock, particularly of hogs and pigs; increases in irrigation, dams, and reservoirs in the Lower Mississippi and Lower Missouri watersheds, widespread increase in the use of the pesticide glyphosate; and widespread decrease in atmospheric deposition of sulfate. These results and others provide a framework for evaluating potential causes of water-quality changes over the past four decades.

Journal of Land Use Science

Episodic soil succession on basaltic lava fields in a cool, dry environment

Holocene- to late Pleistocene-aged lava flows at Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve provide an ideal setting to examine the early stages of soil formation under cool, dry conditions. Transects were used to characterize the amount and nature of soil cover on across basaltic lava flows ranging in age from 2.1 to 18.4 ka. Results indicate that on flows <13 ka, very shallow organic soils (Folists in Soil Taxonomy) are the dominant soil type, providing an areal coverage of up to &sim;25%. On flows &ge;13.9 ka, deeper mineral soils including Entisols, Aridisols, and Mollisols become dominant and the areal extent increases to &ge;95% on flows older than 18.4 ka. These data suggest there are two distinct pedogenic pathways associated with lava flows of the region. The first pathway is illustrated by the younger flows, where Folists dominate. In the absence of a major source of loess, relatively little mineral material accumulates and soils provide only minor coverage of the lava flows. Our results indicate that this pathway of soil development has not changed appreciably over the past &sim;10 ka. The second pedogenic pathway is illustrated by the flows older than 13.9 ka. These flows have been subject to deposition of large quantities of loess during and after the last regional glaciation, resulting in almost complete coverage. Subsequent pedogenesis has given rise to Aridisols and Mollisols with calcic and cambic horizons and mollic epipedons. This research highlights the importance of regional climate change on the evolution of Craters of the Moon soilscapes.

Idaho

Antarctica: A Keystone in a Changing World--Online Proceedings for the Tenth International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences. Santa Barbara, California, U.S.A.--August 26 to September 1, 2007

Overview: The International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences (ISAES) is held once every four years to provide an international forum for presenting research results and new ideas and for planning future Antarctic geoscience research projects. This Tenth ISAES coincides with the International Polar Year (IPY; 50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical Year) and has been structured to showcase the great breadth of geoscience research being done in Antarctic regions by more than more than 100 institutions located in over 30 countries. The science program of the Symposium encompasses six broad themes that cover key topics on evolution and interactions of the geosphere, cryosphere and biosphere and their cross-linkages with past and historic paleoclimates. Emphasis is also on deciphering the climate records in ice cores, geologic cores, rock outcrops and those inferred from climate models. New technologies for the coming decades of geoscience data collection are also highlighted. Ten keynote presentations at the symposium outline the foundation for the research sessions of the symposium and the structure of the Online Proceedings and Proceedings Book for the Tenth ISAES. The ISAES is traditionally a cornerstone meeting for the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In recognition of the Tenth ISAES being held in the U.S. for the first time in 30 years and during IPY, the publication of the symposium proceedings is being handled as a special collaborative effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, The National Academies Polar Research Board and The National Academies Press. The National Academies Polar Research Board oversees the activities of SCAR in the U.S. Special attention has been directed at publication formats for the symposium, to expedite the open and wide sharing of mature and preliminary research results presented in talks and posters at the Tenth ISAES. All symposium presentations are documented by a short Summary printed in the Symposium Program Booklet and either a short research paper or an extended abstract. The research papers and extended abstracts are compiled in this Online Proceedings and are replicated on a DVD-ROM that is placed in the back of the Tenth ISAES Proceedings Book. The Proceedings Book has printed versions of the keynote talks and an overview paper of the symposium. The short research papers and extended abstracts have been handled differently. Research papers present mature research results and syntheses. They have been peer-reviewed using standard journal procedures. Following revisions and acceptances by co-editors, the papers have been formatted for publication and proofread by authors. Each paper has been assigned a Digital Object Identification (DOI) number and separate html link, and posted online (as part of this USGS Open-File Report series) to ensure open and wide access to the research results. Extended abstracts focus on preliminary research results and have not been peer reviewed. They have had only minimal editorial review and revision. Authors have formatted and proofread their papers. Extended abstracts were not given DOI numbers and are included together in a separate chapter of this online Proceedings. USGS publications staff and Stanford-student editorial assistants indexed and compiled the PDF versions of the short research papers and extended abstracts for inclusion in this online Proceedings. USGS staff created the master DVD-ROM that contains a replica of the Online Proceedings for the Tenth ISAES, and provided the DVD-ROM copies that are included in the Tenth ISAES Proceedings Book published by The National Academies Press in the U.S. A team of more than 25 co-editors coordinated with the numerous authors and peer reviewers in handling the many research papers and extended abstracts that are included herein. Handling the large volume of short papers and extended abstracts, getting most of them onli

Open-File Report

New constraints on location and timing of the Great Lakes tectonic zone, central Upper Peninsula, Michigan, USA

The Great Lakes tectonic zone (GLTZ) forms the boundary between the Wawa–Abitibi and Minnesota River Valley subprovinces within the Archean Superior Province. The GLTZ is concealed for all of its 1100 km length, except for a segment in the central Upper Peninsula of Michigan. There, it is exposed as a northwest-striking mylonite zone along a 11 km segment, extending to the onlap of Paleozoic rocks to the east. Farther east, its location has been unknown. Here, we use aeromagnetic and gravity data to develop interpretations of the expression of the GLTZ and to define its extent under cover. Aeromagnetic gradients over the mylonite zone are interpreted to be produced by structurally juxtaposed rocks with varying magnetizations. Gravity data show a regional gradient along the GLTZ, produced by the juxtaposition of a dense greenstone belt on the north against lower-density gneisses and granites on the south. The GLTZ is interpreted to extend ∼55 km under cover to the east. The GLTZ is terminated on the east by the buried eastern arm of the ca. 1100 Ma Midcontinent Rift. An undeformed granitic dike that cuts the mylonitic foliation produces a U–Pb apatite age of 2523 ± 33 Ma, implying no major post-Archean shearing occurred, and is at odds with previous interpretations of major Proterozoic reactivation. A granite intrusion in the Minnesota River Valley subprovince produces a Pb–Pb zircon age of 2606.9 ± 3.6/7.4 Ma. This suggests that magmatism related to the Sacred Heart orogeny, previously known in Minnesota, extended to Michigan.

Michigan

Long-term assessment of ichthyoplankton in a large North American river system reveals changes in fish community dynamics

Larval fishes are sensitive to abiotic conditions and provide a direct measure of spawning success. The St. Clair – Detroit River System, a Laurentian Great Lakes connecting channel with a history of environmental degradation, has undergone improvements in habitat and water quality since the 1970s. We compared 2006–2015 ichthyoplankton community data with those collected prior to remediation efforts (1977–1978) to identify patterns in spatial and temporal variability. Both assemblages exhibited a predictable phenology, with taxa from the subfamily Coregoninae dominant in early spring followed by families Osmeridae, Percidae, and Moronidae (May–June) and Cyprinidae and Clupeidae (June–August). While higher densities of larval fish were found in the Detroit River, greater taxa richness and Shannon diversity were observed in the St. Clair River. System wide, 14 new taxa were observed in the 2000s study period. In addition, relative densities of two nonnative species, alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), declined since the 1970s. Increased larval fish richness and decreased densities of nonnative taxa in the 2000s are consistent with improvements to environmental conditions.

Michigan, Ontario

2480 Ma mafic magmatism in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota: A new link connecting the Wyoming and Superior cratons

The Laramide Black Hills uplift of southwest South Dakota exposes a Precambrian crystalline core of ???2560-2600 Ma basement granitoids nonconformably overlain by two Paleoproterozoic intracratonic rift successions. In the northern Black Hills, a 1 km thick, layered sill (the Blue Draw metagabbro) that intrudes the older rift succession provides a key constraint on the timing of mafic magmatism and of older rift-basin sedimentation. Ion microprobe spot analyses of megacrysts of magmatic titanite from a horizon of dioritic pegmatite in the uppermost sill portion yield a 207Pb/206Pb upper-intercept age of 2480 ?? 6 Ma (all age errors ??2??), comparable to two-point 207Pb/206Pb errorchron ages obtained by Pb stepwise leaching of the same titanites. Nearly concordant domains in coexisting magmatic zircon yield apparent spot ages ranging from 2458 ?? 16 to 2284 ?? 20 Ma (i.e., differentially reset along U-Pb concordia), and hornblende from an associated metadiorite yields a partially reset date with oldest apparent-age increments ranging between 2076 ?? 16 and 2010 ?? 8 Ma. We interpret these data as indicating that an episode of gabbroic magmatism occurred at 2480 Ma, in response to earlier rifting of the eastern edge of the Wyoming craton. Layered mafic intrusions of similar thickness and identical age occur along a rifted belt in the southern Superior craton (Sudbury region, Ontario). Moreover, these mafic intrusions are spatially aligned using previous supercontinent restorations of the Wyoming and Superior cratons (Kenorland-Superia configurations). This new "piercing point" augments one previously inferred by spatial-temporal correlation of the Paleoproterozoic Huronian (southern Ontario) and Snowy Pass (southeastern Wyoming) supergroups. We propose that layered mafic intrusions extending from Nemo, South Dakota, to Sudbury, Ontario, delineate an axial rift zone along which Wyoming began to separate from Superior during initial fragmentation of the Neoarchean supercontinent at ???2480 Ma. ?? 2006 NRC Canada.

Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences

Statistical methods used in research concerning endangered and threatened animal species of Puerto Rico: A meta-study

A concern about statistics in wildlife studies, particularly of endangered and threatened species, is whether the data collected meet the assumptions necessary for the use of parametric statistics. This study identified published papers on the nine endangered and six threatened species found only on Puerto Rico using five different databases. The results from the Zoological Record database identified the most articles, including all identified by the other databases. Of the 222 identified articles, 108 included some form of statistics, 26 used only descriptive statistics, 34 included only parametric statistics, 26 used only nonparametric statistics, and 22 reported both parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses. This meta-study showed that the percentage of articles with no statistical treatment decreased in the most recent 20 years, and that although parametric statistics continue to be the most commonly used in published wildlife studies of Puerto Rican wildlife, there has been a distinct increase in the use of nonparametric statistics over time.

Caribbean Journal of Science

Differences in life history patterns of American shad, Alosa sapidissima, populations between ancestral, Atlantic coast, and non-native, Pacific coast rivers of North America

Organisms naturalized outside their native range can reveal new life history patterns in new environments. Here, we compare life history patterns of American shad, Alosa sapidissima, from five rivers along the U.S. Pacific coast (introduced range) with contemporary data from the Atlantic coast source populations. The Pacific coast fish grew slower, matured at a younger age, and were less often iteroparous than conspecifics from the Hudson River and Susquehanna River sources. Differences among the Pacific coast populations indicated that some combination of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation has occurred since the transplants in the 1870s. Microchemical analysis of otoliths from returning adults demonstrated an immature, extended freshwater life history form, locally known as “mini-shad”. These fish remain in the river for at least 1 year or enter salt water briefly and then return to fresh water for several months prior to subsequent seaward migration and return as adults. This and other forms of variation (extent of estuary use and size at sea water entry) expand the understanding of Alosine migration and life history diversity.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Availability of dark daytime refuge may limit mysid abundance in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The zooplankton Mysis diluviana is a major component of the Laurentian Great Lakes food web and has recently declined in abundance in both lakes Michigan and Huron. Drivers of these declines are not well understood. Here, we explore the hypothesis that recent increases in water clarity have contributed to the decline of M. diluviana (mysids) by limiting the availability of daytime dark refuge from visual predators. Using Secchi depth data from 1996 to 2021, we estimate that dark refuge has decreased substantially in lakes Michigan and Huron where mysids have declined, but dark refuge has remained more stable in lakes Ontario and Superior where mysid populations did not decline. Results from a 2021 uncrewed surface vessel hydroacoustic survey and lake-wide, net-based sampling in lakes Michigan and Huron revealed significantly more mysids in areas with dark refuge, such as Lake Michigan’s northern basin. Conversely, Lake Huron contains sparse dark refuge consistent with low mysid densities in that lake. Higher water clarity leading to increased predation may be a primary driver of mysid declines in the Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes

Production of stream habitat gradients by montane watersheds: Hypothesis tests based on spatially explicit path analyses

We studied how the features of mountain watersheds interact to cause gradients in three stream attributes: baseflow stream widths, total alkalinity, and stream slope. A priori hypotheses were developed before being tested in a series of path analyses using data from 90 stream reaches on 24 second- to fourth-order streams across a fifth-order Rocky Mountain watershed. Because most of the conventional least squares regressions initially calculated for the path analyses had spatially correlated residuals (13 of 15 regressions), spatially explicit regressions were often used to derive more accurate parameter estimates and significance tests. Our final working hypotheses accounted for most of the variation in baseflow stream width (73%), total alkalinity (74%), and stream slope (78%) and provide systemic views of watershed function by depicting interactions that occur between geomorphology, land surface features, and stream attributes. Stream gradients originated mainly from the unidirectional changes in geomorphic features that occur over the lengths of streams. Land surface features were of secondary importance and, because they change less predictably relative to the stream, appear to modify the rate at which stream gradients change.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

Great Lakes Basin

Estimating drivers and identifying uncertainties in smallmouth bass population dynamics in an invaded river network

Smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) is an important recreational sportfish and destructive non-native species when introduced into freshwater habitats. There is therefore a need to understand the drivers of, and uncertainties in, smallmouth bass population dynamics for various management objectives. We combined long-term smallmouth bass catch-effort and early life history data from a non-native population in the Green River sub-basin of the upper Colorado River to develop a demographic model that links interannual variability in environmental conditions to recruitment in three river reaches. We used the model to quantify how hydrology, river temperature, and exploitation drive smallmouth bass population dynamics. Early life stages were influenced by timing of hatching and discharge. Dispersal of age-0 fish and density-dependent dynamics were identified as primary sources of uncertainty. Determining the true nature of density-dependent dynamics is important, as the impact of exploitation-based management actions is dependent on the strengths of any density-dependent feedbacks. Our model provides a framework to predict smallmouth bass population responses to future climate conditions, reservoir operations, and exploitation levels.

Utah

An automated approach to detecting signals in electroantennogram data

Coupled gas chromatography/electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) is a widely used method for identifying insect olfactory stimulants present in mixtures of volatiles, and it can greatly accelerate the identification of insect semiochemicals. In GC-EAD, voltage changes across an insect's antenna are measured while the antenna is exposed to compounds eluting from a gas chromatograph. The antenna thus serves as a selective GC detector whose output can be compared to that of a "general" GC detector, commonly a flame ionization detector. Appropriate interpretation of GC-EAD results requires that olfaction-related voltage changes in the antenna be distinguishable from background noise that arises inevitably from antennal preparations and the GC-EAD-associated hardware. In this paper, we describe and compare mathematical algorithms for discriminating olfaction-generated signals in an EAD trace from background noise. The algorithms amplify signals by recognizing their characteristic shape and wavelength while suppressing unstructured noise. We have found these algorithms to be both powerful and highly discriminatory even when applied to noisy traces where the signals would be difficult to discriminate by eye. This new methodology removes operator bias as a factor in signal identification, can improve realized sensitivity of the EAD system, and reduces the number of runs required to confirm the identity of an olfactory stimulant. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Journal of Chemical Ecology