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USGS2010

Thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of the amount of early-seral broadleaf forest at landscape scales

Recent declines in broadleaf-dominated, early-seral forest globally as a function of intensive forest management and/or fire suppression have raised concern about the viability of populations dependent on such forest types. However, quantitative information about the strength and direction of species associations with broadleaf cover at landscape scales are rare. Uncovering such habitat relationships is essential for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. It is particularly important to detect points in habitat reduction where rates of population decline may accelerate or the likelihood of species occurrence drops rapidly (i.e., thresholds). Here, we use a large avian point-count data set ( N = 4375) from southwestern and northwestern Oregon along with segmented logistic regression to test for thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of broadleaf forest and early-seral broadleaf forest at local (150-m radius) and landscape (500–2000-m radius) scales. All 12 bird species examined showed positive responses to either broadleaf forest in general, and/or early-seral broadleaf forest. However, regional variation in species response to these conditions was high. We found considerable evidence for landscape thresholds in bird species occurrence as a function of broadleaf cover; threshold models received substantially greater support than linear models for eight of 12 species. Landscape thresholds in broadleaf forest ranged broadly from 1.35% to 24.55% mean canopy cover. Early-seral broadleaf thresholds tended to be much lower (0.22–1.87%). We found a strong negative relationship between the strength of species association with early-seral broadleaf forest and 42-year bird population trends; species most associated with this forest type have declined at the greatest rates. Taken together, these results provide the first support for the hypothesis that reductions in broadleaf-dominated early-seral forest due to succession and intensive forest management have led to population declines of constituent species in the Pacific northwestern United States. Forest management treatments that maintain or restore even small amounts of broadleaf vegetation could mitigate further declines.

Oregon↗

USGS2009

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km 2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km 2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2013

Limitation and facilitation of one of the world's most invasive fish: an intercontinental comparison

Purposeful species introductions offer opportunities to inform our understanding of both invasion success and conservation hurdles. We evaluated factors determining the energetic limitations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in both their native and introduced ranges. Our focus was on brown trout because they are nearly globally distributed, considered one of the world's worst invaders, yet imperiled in much of their native habitat. We synthesized and compared data describing temperature regime, diet, growth, and maximum body size across multiple spatial and temporal scales, from country (both exotic and native habitats) and major geographic area (MGA) to rivers and years within MGA. Using these data as inputs, we next used bioenergetic efficiency (BioEff), a relative scalar representing a realized percentage of maximum possible consumption (0–100%) as our primary response variable and a multi-scale, nested, mixed statistical model (GLIMMIX) to evaluate variation among and within spatial scales and as a function of density and elevation. MGA and year (the residual) explained the greatest proportion of variance in BioEff. Temperature varied widely among MGA and was a strong driver of variation in BioEff. We observed surprisingly little variation in the diet of brown trout, except the overwhelming influence of the switch to piscivory observed only in exotic MGA. We observed only a weak signal of density-dependent effects on BioEff; however, BioEff remained <50% at densities >2.5 fish/m2. The trajectory of BioEff across the life span of the fish elucidated the substantial variation in performance among MGAs; the maximum body size attained by brown trout was consistently below 400 mm in native habitat but reached 600 mm outside their native range, where brown trout grew rapidly, feeding in part on naive prey fishes. The integrative, physiological approach, in combination with the intercontinental and comparative nature of our study, allowed us to overcome challenges associated with context-dependent variation in determining invasion success. Overall our results indicate “growth plasticity across the life span” was important for facilitating invasion, and should be added to lists of factors characterizing successful invaders.

Ecology↗

USGS2023

Multi-level thresholds of residential and agricultural land use for elk avoidance across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Conversion of land for settlements and agriculture is increasing globally and can influence wildlife space use. However, there is limited research to identify the thresholds of land-use change that incur wildlife avoidance and how these thresh-olds might vary across levels of selection. 2. We evaluated multi-level avoidance thresholds of elk Cervus canadensis impacted by residential development and irrigated agriculture across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Using GPS data from765 elk in 21 herds, we estimated habitat selection in relation to development and agriculture at three levels (home range selection, within home range selection and movement path selection). Next, using individual selection covariates and as-sociated measures of land-use availability, we used functional-response models to evaluate how selection varied based on availability, and in turn, to estimate avoidance thresholds. 3. We found individual and level-specific variation in elk responses to environmental factors. Elk exhibited stronger responses (either selection or avoidance) when selecting home range locations (i.e. second-order selection) than when selecting areas within home ranges (i.e. third-order selection) or selecting movement paths (i.e. fourth-order selection). Importantly, elk avoidance of development and agriculture changed as the amount of land in these categories changed. Across all levels of selection elk exhibited neutral selection for human development at low levels of availability (<1.1%–2.2% developed) but avoided areas that were >1.1%–2.2% developed. Conversely, elk selected positively for irrigated agriculture at low to moderate levels of availability (<52.0%–66.2% agriculture) but exhibited neutral selection in areas that were >52.0%–66.2% agriculture. 4. Synthesis and applications . Elk avoidance of low levels of human development suggests conservation efforts such as restrictions on future development or conservation easements could focus on areas that are still below 2% developed. Additionally, because elk selection was strongest at the landscape scale, conservation actions that are based on information about the overall landscape structure may be most impactful. Our results highlight the importance of under-standing variability in wildlife habitat selection at multiple levels, particularly in relation to land-use change, and highlight how functional response modelling can help inform landscape conservation.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2009

Prevention, early detection and containment of invasive, nonnative plants in the Hawaiian Islands: current efforts and needs

Introduction: Invasive, non-native plants (or environmental weeds) have long been recognized as a major threat to the native biodiversity of oceanic islands (Cronk & Fuller, 1995; Denslow, 2003). Globally, several hundred non-native plant species have been reported to have major impacts on natural areas on oceanic islands (Kueffer et al ., 2009). In Hawaii, at least some 50 non-native plant species reach dominance in natural areas (Kueffer et al ., 2009) and many of them are known to impact ecosystem processes or biodiversity. One example is the invasive Australian tree fern ( Cyathea cooperi ), which has been shown to be very efficient at utilizing soil nitrogen and can grow six times as rapidly in height, maintain four times more fronds, and produce significantly more fertile fronds per month than the native Hawaiian endemic tree ferns, Cibotium spp. (Durand & Goldstein, 2001a, b). Additionally, while native tree ferns provide an ideal substrate for epiphytic growth of many understory ferns and flowering plants, the Australian tree fern has the effect of impoverishing the understory and failing to support an abundance of native epiphytes (Medeiros & Loope, 1993). Other notorious examples of invasive plant species problematic for biodiversity and ecosystem processes in Hawaii include miconia ( Miconia calvescens ), strawberry guava ( Psidium cattleianum ), albizia ( Falcataria moluccana ), firetree ( Morella faya ), clidemia ( Clidemia hirta ), kahili ginger ( Hedychium gardnerianum ), and fountain grass ( Pennisetum setaceum ), to name just a few. Fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) is a recent example of a seriously problematic invasive species for Hawaii’s agriculture and is damaging certain high-elevations native ecosystems as well. The threat of invasive plants has long been recognized in Hawaii and is well documented (e.g. Cox, 1999; Loope & Kraus, 2009 in press; Loope et al ., 2004; Mooney & Drake, 1986; Stone & Scott, 1985; Stone et al. , 1992). In many respects, Hawaii may be near the forefront among national and international efforts to address the burgeoning threat of invasive plants, perhaps especially in the field of outreach and education (Holt, 1996; Van Driesche & Van Driesche, 2000). However, given the scale of the problem many challenges still need to be addressed and gaps in the existing management system need to be identified. In particular, it appears that new non-native plant species are still introduced to the Hawaiian Islands at a high rate with little or no regard for their potential invasiveness. In fact, a Pacific-wide and a global survey of non-native plants on oceanic islands have both shown that on Hawaii among all archipelagos by far the highest number of problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world is already present (Denslow et al . 2009, Kueffer et al . 2009). Hawaii lacks an effective mechanism for tracking what species are present or incoming. For instance, early detection nursery surveys conducted on Maui in 2008 found over 300 species of cultivated vascular plants that have not previously been recorded in Hawaii (Starr et al. , in prep.). In spite of an innovative Hawaii Biological Survey (e.g. Eldredge & Evenhuis, 2003), there is no mechanism for recording presence of a species until it becomes naturalized. Some of these new introductions may quickly become serious pests. Fireweed, first recorded in Hawaii on the Big Island in the early 1980s, is now considered one of the Kueffer & Loope 2009 5/48 worst weeds of pastures and is also invading natural areas from near sea level to above 10,000 feet. Although the cultivated and as yet non-invasive Cortaderia selloana has been present in Hawaii for 50 years or more, the morphologically similar Cortaderia jubata was simultaneously found to be present on Maui and invading on a large scale in 1989. It played an important role in inspiring the establishment of the Maui Invasive Species Committee (MISC) in 1997, and MISC now spends roughly $200,000 per year removing and containing C. jubata to keep it from becoming widespread in high elevation conservation lands of East and West Maui. The existence of many similar examples shows that to date regulatory action to prevent new invasive plant species from establishing and spreading in Hawaii has not yet been as successful as it needs to be. In particular, because some problematic invasive species known from other areas in the world (Kueffer et al ., 2009; Weber, 2003) have not yet been recorded from Hawaii, preventive measures against the introduction and spread of such likely invasive species is therefore an urgent need for Hawaii. Indeed, regulation of importation and early detection and eradication of introduced species before they become abundant and widespread are widely considered the most cost-efficient and often only effective measures against the threat of new invasive species (Kueffer & Hirsch Hadorn, 2008; Wittenberg & Cock, 2001). Timing seems favorable for Hawaii to achieve effective protection against the threat of new invasive species through prevention, early detection, and eradication/containment. Through the establishment and evolution of Invasive Species Committees (ISCs) on each major Hawaiian island, the institutional capacity has been built up for prevention, early detection, containment, and outreach at an island scale. Weed risk assessment (Daehler et al ., 2004) and early detection methodologies (Starr et al. , in review-a, b) have been developed and tested specifically for Hawaii. Containment strategies have been successful (e.g., Special Ecological Areas in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park), and so have eradications of particular species on an island scale (e.g. mullein ( Verbascum thapsus ) and other species on Maui, fireweed ( Senecio madagascariensis ) on Kauai). These successful management strategies may be further strengthened through recently developed novel approaches in research (e.g. remote sensing, species distribution modelling, and molecular genetics tools). Another major recent achievement is the gained support of the plant industry for preventive measures against invasive species (see p. 13ff). Last but not least, regulatory action is also moving forward. Passage of House Bill 2517 by the 2008 Hawaii House and Senate and prompt signing of the bill into law by the Governor provides hope that action to ban the sale of a meaningful suite of restricted weeds can quickly proceed through the rulemaking phase into the implementation phase. This report documents these achievements and experiences and provides a range of perspectives on how to further develop prevention, early detection and containment of invasive species in Hawaii. The report is based on a symposium and workshop held at the 2008 Hawaii Conservation Conference in Honolulu on 31 July 2008.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Across borders: External factors and prior behaviour influence North Pacific albatross associations with fishing vessels

Understanding encounters between marine predators and fisheries across national borders and outside national jurisdictions offers new perspectives on unwanted interactions to inform ocean management and predator conservation. Although seabird–fisheries overlap has been documented at many scales, remote identification of vessel encounters has lagged because vessel movement data often are lacking. Here, we reveal albatrosses–fisheries associations throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We identified commercial fishing operations using Global Fishing Watch data and algorithms to detect fishing vessels. We compiled GPS tracks of adult black-footed Phoebastria nigripes and Laysan Phoebastria immutabilis albatrosses, and juvenile short-tailed albatrosses Phoebastria albatrus . We quantified albatrosses-vessel encounters based on the assumed distance that birds perceive a vessel (≤30 km), and associations when birds approached vessels (≤3 km). For each event we quantified bird behaviour, environmental conditions and vessel characteristics and then applied Boosted Regression Tree models to identify drivers and the duration of these associations. In regions of greater fishing effort short-tailed and Laysan albatrosses associated with fishing vessels more frequently. However, fishing method (e.g. longline, trawl) and flag nation did not influence association prevalence nor the duration short-tailed albatrosses attended fishing vessels. Laysan albatrosses were more likely to approach longer vessels. Black-footed albatrosses were the most likely to approach vessels (61.9%), but limited vessel encounters ( n = 21) prevented evaluation of meaningful explanatory models for this species of high bycatch concern. Temporal variables (time of day and month) and bird behavioural state helped explain when short-tailed albatrosses were in close proximity to a vessel, but environmental conditions were more important for explaining interaction duration. Laysan albatrosses were more likely to associate with vessels while searching and during the last 60% (by time) of their trips. Our results provide specific species–fisheries insight regarding contributing factors of high-risk associations that could lead to bycatch of albatrosses within national waters and on the high seas. Policy implications . Given the availability of Global Fishing Watch data, our analysis can be applied to other marine predators—if tracking data are available—to identify spatio-temporal patterns, vessel specific attributes and predator behaviours associated with fishing vessel associations, thus enabling predictive modelling and targeted mitigation measures.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Optimal allocation of law enforcement patrol effort to mitigate poaching activities

Poaching is a global problem causing the decline of species worldwide. Optimizing the efficiency of ranger patrols to deter poaching activity at the lowest possible cost is crucial for protecting species with limited resources. We applied decision analysis and spatial optimization algorithms to allocate efforts of ranger patrols throughout a national park. Our objective was to mitigate poaching activity at or below management risk targets for the lowest monetary cost. We examined this trade‐off by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier using integer linear programming. We used data from a ranger‐based monitoring program in Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda. Our measure of poaching risk is based on dynamic occupancy models that account for imperfect detection of poaching activities. We found that in order to achieve a 5% reduction in poaching risk, 622 ranger patrol events (each corresponding to patrolling 1‐km 2 sites) were needed within a year at a cost of US$49,760. In order to attain a 60% reduction in poaching risk, 15,560 patrol events were needed at a cost of US \$ 1,244,800. We evaluated the trade‐off between patrol cost and poaching risk based on our model by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier and park managers found the solution for a 50% risk reduction to be a practical trade‐off based on funding constraints (comparable to recent years) and the diminishing returns between risk mitigation and cost. This expected reduction in risk required 8,558 patrol events per year at a cost of US \$ 684,640. Our results suggest that optimal solutions could increase efficiency compared to the actual effort allocations from 2006 to 2016 in Nyungwe National Park (e.g., risk reductions of ~30% under recent budgets compared to ~50% reduction in risk under the optimal strategy). The modeling framework in this study took into account imperfect detection of poaching risk as well as the directional and conditional nature of ranger patrol events given the spatial adjacency relationships of neighboring sites and access points. Our analyses can help to improve the efficiency of ranger patrols, and the modeling framework can be broadly applied to other spatial conservation planning problems with conditional, multilevel, site selection.

Nyungwe National Park↗

USGS2021

Mammal species composition and habitat associations in a commercial forest and mixed-plantation landscape

Commercial forest plantations of fast-growing species have been established globally to meet increasing demands for timber, pulpwood, and other wood products. Industrial plantations may contribute to tropical forest conservation by reducing exploitation of primary and secondary natural forests. Whether such plantations can support critical elements of biodiversity, including provision of habitat and movement corridors for species of conservation concern, is an important question in Southeast Asia. Our objectives were to investigate relationships between habitat gradients and community attributes of medium-sized to large mammals in a mixed plantation mosaic in Bengkoka Peninsula, Sabah, East Malaysia. Data on mammals were collected using 59 remote camera stations deployed for a minimum of 21 days (24-hour sampling occasions) in three major land-use types: natural forest, Acacia plantations, and non- Acacia plantations (oil palm, rubber, young Eucalyptus pellita ). We used sample-based rarefaction to evaluate variation in species richness with land use. We used generalized linear models and ordination analyses to evaluate whether variation in mammal detections and species composition was associated with habitat gradients. We recorded >22 mammal species over 1572 sampling occasions. Natural forest area was positively associated with mammal species richness and detections of threatened mammals. Overall detections of mammals increased with decreasing elevation, but decreased within, and close to, Acacia plantations. Detections of threatened mammals increased with greater proportions of natural forest and Acacia and increasing proximity to roads. Sample-based rarefaction indicated that species richness of mammals in Acacia and natural forest was considerably higher than observed. Both natural forest and Acacia plantations shared similar values for species richness and diversity, but non- Acacia plantations scored lower in both metrics. Mammal species composition differed among different types of land use. Smaller generalists used non- Acacia plantation forests. A variety of other mammals including some threatened species used natural forest, Acacia , or a combination of the two. Acacia plantations possess attributes supporting a diversity of mammal species, including those we defined as threatened based on IUCN criteria. However, this is likely a function of the habitat mosaic with natural forest in the study area and the mangrove forests on the fringes of the peninsula serving as refuges of mammal diversity. Retention and restoration of natural and mangrove forests may therefore enhance the conservation potential of industrial Acacia plantations. Additionally, controlled road access in conjunction with anti-poaching operations and strengthening public awareness are essential to reduce the threat of overexploitation.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2025

Spatially explicit power analyses to inform occupancy‐based multi‐species wildlife monitoring programmes

1. Current and accurate information on wildlife populations is integral to successful biodiversity management and conservation globally. Nevertheless, many monitoring programs fail in their attempts to accurately monitor populations of interest due to interlinked issues including insufficient sample sizes, inappropriate duration, lack of reproducibility, and lack of clearly stated objectives. These common pitfalls could be avoided through the elicitation of explicit monitoring objectives and the a priori use of simulations to inform minimum sampling design requirements to meet said objectives. 2. Here, we provide a blueprint for using spatially explicit power analyses to inform the design and implementation of multi-species monitoring programs on landscape-scales. As a demonstration, we used spatially explicit simulations to devise a suitable sampling regime to meet clearly specified monitoring objectives in New York State: to use annual occupancy-based monitoring to be able to detect 25% and 50% changes in abundance of populations over five- and ten- year periods for all species of management interest in New York State, USA. We focused our simulation efforts on three challenging focal species (black bear, Ursus americanus, bobcat, Lynx rufus, and American marten, Martes americana) that differ notably in their morphology, life histories, space use, detection probability, habitat suitability, and population sizes/trajectories, and thus provide extremes in the challenges presented when it comes to sampling appropriately to detect changes in abundance. 3. Our simulations demonstrate variable context dependent trade-offs in sampling designs (i.e. number of sites [J] and number of sampling occasions [K]), and identify necessary minimum detection probabilities that must be attained to achieve statistical power to detect changes of varying magnitudes in populations of varying sizes in the three focal species. The simulations also highlight that monitoring population increases is likely beyond the reach of occupancy-based monitoring programs for wide-ranging or locally abundant species. 4. Synthesis and applications : We combine the results from the single-species simulations to produce a multi-species sampling design that meets the specified objectives for all three species. While the case study is centered on developing a multi-species sampling regime for New York State, it provides a reproducible step-by-step framework using established methods for wildlife managers and other practitioners to inform their own context- and objective- specific multi-species occupancy-based monitoring programs.

New York↗

USGS2022

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2014

The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a non-native predators on stream-rearing salmon

Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Ultra‐high‐resolution mapping of biocrusts with Unmanned Aerial Systems

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) occur in drylands globally where they support ecosystem functioning by increasing soil stability, reducing dust emissions and modifying soil resource availability (e.g. water, nutrients). Determining biocrust condition and extent across landscapes continues to present considerable challenges to scientists and land managers. Biocrusts grow in patches, cover vast expanses of rugged terrain and are vulnerable to physical disturbance associated with ground‐based mapping techniques. As such, remote sensing offers promising opportunities to map and monitor biocrusts. While satellite‐based remote sensing has been used to detect biocrusts at relatively large spatial scales, few studies have used high‐resolution imagery from Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to map fine‐scale patterns of biocrusts. We collected sub‐centimeter, true color 3‐band imagery at 10 plots in sagebrush and pinyon‐juniper woodland communities in a semiarid ecosystem in the southwestern US and used object‐based image analysis (OBIA) to segment and classify the imagery into maps of light and dark biocrusts, bare soil, rock and various vegetation covers. We used field data to validate the classifications and assessed the spatial distribution and configuration of different classes using fragmentation metrics. Map accuracies ranged from 46 to 77% (average 65%) and were higher in pinyon‐juniper (average 70%) versus sagebrush (average 60%) plots. Biocrust classes showed generally high accuracies at both pinyon‐juniper plots (average dark crust = 70%; light crust = 80%) and sagebrush plots (average dark crust = 69%; light crust = 77%). Point cloud density, sun elevation and spectral confusion between vegetation cover explained some differences in accuracy across plots. Spatial analyses of classified maps showed that biocrust patches in pinyon‐juniper plots were generally larger, more aggregated and contiguous than in sagebrush plots. Pinyon‐juniper plots also had greater patch richness and a lower Shannon evenness index than sagebrush plots, suggesting greater soil cover heterogeneity in this plant community type.

Utah↗

USGS2026

Growth form and lifespan of herbaceous species mediate the role of traits in short-term drought response

Increased climate variability is expected to intensify short-term drought events. Plants have evolved stress tolerance strategies involving trade-offs in resource conservation, mycorrhizal collaboration and plant size, yet how these strategies promote drought resistance across different herbaceous plant groups remains unknown. Leveraging 63 globally distributed grassland and shrubland sites from the International Drought Experiment, we identified plant traits linked to drought resistance in 661 populations of 421 species after 1 year of extreme drought. We assessed how traits, site precipitation and drought severity affected cover change across growth forms and lifespans, and how trait–environment interactions influenced drought resistance. Across all species, leaf N (an acquisitive trait) was associated with drought resistance, whereas in forbs, drought resistance was also associated with a conservative root trait and plant size. In addition, interactions among traits mediated drought resistance; root traits predicted performance only in concert with other traits. Environmental variables influenced trait effects on drought resistance, notably for annuals in wetter sites, suggesting that drought-escape strategies in annuals may be advantageous only under mild stress. Our study highlights variability in traits that predict drought resistance across herbaceous plant groups, emphasizing the importance of species context, environmental stress and the selection of traits in research and management.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Post-fire aspen (Populus tremuloides) regeneration varies in response to winter precipitation across a regional climate gradient

Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broad North American range. As a relatively drought intolerant species, projected changes of altered precipitation timing, amount, and type (e.g. snow or rain) may influence aspen response to fire, especially in moisture-limited and winter precipitation-dominated portions of its range. Aspen is generally considered an early-seral species that benefits from fire, but increases in fire activity across much of the western United States could affect the species in unpredictable ways. This study examined post-fire aspen stands across a regional climate gradient spanning from the north-central Great Basin to the northeastern portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (USA). We investigated the influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variables, snowpack, and site conditions (e.g. browsing levels, topography) on density of post-fire aspen regeneration (i.e. all small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (i.e. small trees ≥2 m tall ha −1 ) across 15 fires that occurred between 2000 and 2009. The range of post-fire regeneration (2500–71,600 small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (0–32,500 small trees ≥2 m ha −1 ) densities varied widely across plots. Linear mixed effects models demonstrated that both response variables increased primarily with early winter (Oct-Dec) precipitation during the ‘fire-regen period’ (i.e., fire year and five years after fire) relative to the 30-year mean. The 30-year mean of early winter precipitation and fire-regen period snowpack were also positively related to recruitment densities. Both response variables decreased with higher shrub cover, highlighting the importance of considering shrub competition in post-fire environments. Regeneration and recruitment densities were negatively related to proportion browsed aspen leaders and animal pellet densities (no./m 2 ), respectively, indicating the influence of ungulate browsing even at the relatively low levels observed across sites. A post-hoc exploratory analysis suggests that deviation in early winter precipitation during the fire-regen period (relative to 30-year means) varied among sites along directional gradients, emphasizing the need to consider multiple spatiotemporal scales when investigating climate effects on post-fire successional dynamics. We discuss our findings in terms of dynamic management and conservation strategies in light of changing fire regimes and climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS1999

Demography of the Yellowstone grizzly bears

We undertook a demographic analysis of the Yellowstone grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) to identify critical environmental factors controlling grizzly bear vital rates, and thereby to help evaluate the effectiveness of past management and to identify future conservation issues. We concluded that, within the limits of uncertainty implied by the available data and our methods of data analysis, the size of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population changed little from 1975 to 1995. We found that grizzly bear mortality rates are about double in years when the whitebark pine crop fails than in mast years, and that the population probably declines when the crop fails and increases in mast years. Our model suggests that natural variation in whitebark pine crop size over the last two decades explains more of the perceived fluctuations in Yellowstone grizzly population size than do other variables. Our analysis used demographic data from 202 radio-telemetered bears followed between 1975 and 1992 and accounted for whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) crop failures during 1993–1995. We used a maximum likelihood method to estimate demographic parameters and used the Akaike Information Criteria to judge the significance of various independent variables. We identified no independent variables correlated with grizzly bear fecundity. In order of importance, we found that grizzly bear mortality rates are correlated with season, whitebark pine crop size (mast vs. nonmast year), sex, management-trapping status (never management-trapped vs. mangement-trapped once or more), and age. The mortality rate of bears that were management-trapped at least once was almost double that of bears that were never management-trapped, implying a source/sink (i.e., never management-trapped/management-trapped) structure. The rate at which bears move between the source and sink, estimated as the management-trapping rate ( h ), is critical to estimating the finite rate of increase, λ͞ . We quantified h by estimating the rate at which bears that have never been management-trapped are management-trapped for the first time. It differed across seasons, was higher in nonmast than mast years, and varied with age. We calculate that λ͞ = 1.00 from 1975 to 1983 (four mast and five nonmast years) and 1.02 from 1984 to 1995 (seven mast and five nonmast years). Overall, we find that λ͞ = 1.01 ± 0.04 (mean ± 1 se ) from 1975 to 1995. Our models suggest that future management should concentrate on the threats to whitebark pine, such as those posed by white pine blister rust, global warming, and fire suppression. As is currently widely recognized by Yellowstone land managers, our model also suggests that future management must compensate for the increased grizzly bear mortality that is likely to be caused by an increasing number of humans in Yellowstone.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Global application of an unoccupied aerial vehicle photogrammetry protocol for predicting aboveground biomass in non-forest ecosystems

Non-forest ecosystems, dominated by shrubs, grasses and herbaceous plants, provide ecosystem services including carbon sequestration and forage for grazing, and are highly sensitive to climatic changes. Yet these ecosystems are poorly represented in remotely sensed biomass products and are undersampled by in situ monitoring. Current global change threats emphasize the need for new tools to capture biomass change in non-forest ecosystems at appropriate scales. Here we developed and deployed a new protocol for photogrammetric height using unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) images to test its capability for delivering standardized measurements of biomass across a globally distributed field experiment. We assessed whether canopy height inferred from UAV photogrammetry allows the prediction of aboveground biomass (AGB) across low-stature plant species by conducting 38 photogrammetric surveys over 741 harvested plots to sample 50 species. We found mean canopy height was strongly predictive of AGB across species, with a median adjusted R 2 of 0.87 (ranging from 0.46 to 0.99) and median prediction error from leave-one-out cross-validation of 3.9%. Biomass per-unit-of-height was similar within but different among, plant functional types. We found that photogrammetric reconstructions of canopy height were sensitive to wind speed but not sun elevation during surveys. We demonstrated that our photogrammetric approach produced generalizable measurements across growth forms and environmental settings and yielded accuracies as good as those obtained from in situ approaches. We demonstrate that using a standardized approach for UAV photogrammetry can deliver accurate AGB estimates across a wide range of dynamic and heterogeneous ecosystems. Many academic and land management institutions have the technical capacity to deploy these approaches over extents of 1–10 ha −1 . Photogrammetric approaches could provide much-needed information required to calibrate and validate the vegetation models and satellite-derived biomass products that are essential to understand vulnerable and understudied non-forested ecosystems around the globe.

Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2024

Post-fire reference densities for giant sequoia seedlings in a new era of high-severity wildfires

Many forests globally are experiencing increases in large, high-severity wildfires, often with increasingly inadequate post-fire tree regeneration. To identify areas that might need post-fire planting, forest managers have a growing need for seedling reference densities – the natural seedling densities expected to be adequate to regenerate a forest – to compare with observed post-fire seedling densities. The most useful reference densities will meet five criteria: they will (1) be specific to natural post-fire reproduction rather than planted seedlings (because planted seedlings can have substantially greater survival than natural seedlings, thus underestimating adequate natural reproduction), (2) apply to the first few years following fire (when management decisions and actions are most likely), (3) be specific to each of those post-fire years (because post-fire seedling densities can change rapidly with time since fire), (4) be associated with estimates of uncertainty, and (5) include consideration of novel environmental conditions during management applications (because most reference densities will be based on data collected under more environmentally benign conditions). The world’s most massive tree species, the giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) of California’s Sierra Nevada, recently experienced historically unprecedented wildfires that killed an estimated 13–19% of mature sequoias across their native range. Seedlings germinating after these fires then experienced exceptional summer heat and the two most severe summer droughts of the 121-year historical record. To help inform management responses to these events, we used seedling censuses from past fires (mostly prescribed fires) to calculate sequoia seedling reference densities meeting the five criteria. The reference densities had three striking features, which are partly attributable to giant sequoia’s status as a pioneer species. First, despite being inherently conservative, the reference densities were quite high. For example, mean first-year reference density was 172,599 seedlings ha −1 . Second, reference densities declined precipitously with time since fire: the mean fifth-year reference density was only 5% of the mean first-year density. Third, the reference densities were associated with relatively substantial uncertainty, a consequence of density variations among seedling plots; for example, the 95% credible interval for first-year reference density was 64,377 to 313,438 seedlings ha −1 . Despite this uncertainty, a case-study sequoia grove that recently burned in a high-severity wildfire had second-year post-fire seedling densities that were significantly (and dramatically) lower than the corresponding second-year reference density, suggesting inadequate post-fire reproduction. Our results highlight the value of the five criteria for reference densities – criteria that, in current practice, are rarely all met.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2012

A brief history and summary of the effects of river engineering and dams on the Mississippi River system and delta

The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong project is providing technical assistance and information to aid management decisions and build science capacity of institutions in the Mekong River Basin. A component of this effort is to produce a synthesis of the effects of dams and other engineering structures on large-river hydrology, sediment transport, geomorphology, ecology, water quality, and deltaic systems. The Mississippi River Basin (MRB) of the United States was used as the backdrop and context for this synthesis because it is a continental scale river system with a total annual water discharge proportional to the Mekong River, has been highly engineered over the past two centuries, and the effects of engineering have been widely studied and documented by scientists and engineers. The MRB is controlled and regulated by dams and river-engineering structures. These modifications have resulted in multiple benefits including navigation, flood control, hydropower, bank stabilization, and recreation. Dams and other river-engineering structures in the MRB have afforded the United States substantial socioeconomic benefits; however, these benefits also have transformed the hydrologic, sediment transport, geomorphic, water-quality, and ecologic characteristics of the river and its delta. Large dams on the middle Missouri River have substantially reduced the magnitude of peak floods, increased base discharges, and reduced the overall variability of intraannual discharges. The extensive system of levees and wing dikes throughout the MRB, although providing protection from intermediate magnitude floods, have reduced overall channel capacity and increased flood stage by up to 4 meters for higher magnitude floods. Prior to major river engineering, the estimated average annual sediment yield of the Mississippi River Basin was approximately 400 million metric tons. The construction of large main-channel reservoirs on the Missouri and Arkansas Rivers, sedimentation in dike fields, and protection of channel banks by revetments throughout the basin, have reduced the overall sediment yield of the MRB by more than 60 percent. The primary alterations to channel morphology by dams and other engineering projects have been (1) channel simplification and reduced dynamism; (2) lowering of channel-bed elevation; and (3) disconnection of the river channel from the flood plain, except during extreme flood events. Freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River and its associated sediment and nutrient loads strongly influence the physical and biological components in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ninety percent of the nitrogen load reaching the Gulf of Mexico is from nonpoint sources with about 60 percent coming from fertilizer and mineralized soil nitrogen. Much of the phosphorus is from animal manure from pasture and rangelands followed by fertilizer applied to corn and soybeans. Increased nutrient enrichment in the northern Gulf of Mexico has resulted in the degradation of water quality as more phytoplankton grow, which increases turbidity and depletes oxygen in the lower depths creating what is known as the "dead zone." In 2002, the dead zone was 22,000 square kilometers (km2), an area similar to the size of the State of Massachusetts. Changes in the flow regime from engineered structures have had direct and indirect effects on the fish communities. The navigation pools in the upper Mississippi River have aged, and these overwintering habitats, which were created when the pools filled, have declined as sedimentation reduces water depth. Reproduction of paddlefish may have been adversely affected by dams, which impede access to suitable spawning habitats. Fishes that inhabit swift-current habitats in the unimpounded lower Mississippi River have not declined as much as in the upper Mississippi River. The decline of the pallid sturgeon may be attributable to channelization of the Missouri River above St. Louis, Missouri. The Missouri River supports a rich fish community and remains relatively intact. Nevertheless, the widespread and long history of human intervention in river discharge has contributed to the declines of about 25 percent of the species. The Mississippi River Delta Plain is built from six delta complexes composed of a massive area of coastal wetlands that support the largest commercial fishery in the conterminous United States. Since the early 20th century, approximately 4,900 km2 of coastal lands have been lost in Louisiana. One of the primary mechanisms of wetland loss on the Plaquemines-Balize complex is believed to be the disconnection of the river distributary network from the delta plain by the massive system of levees on the delta top, which prevent overbank flooding and replenishment of the delta top by sediment and nutrient deliveries. Efforts by Federal and State agencies to conserve and restore the Mississippi River Delta Plain began over three decades ago and have accelerated over the past decade. Regardless of these efforts, however, land losses are expected to continue because the reduced upstream sediment supplies are not sufficient to keep up with the projected depositional space being created by the combined forces of delta plain subsidence and global sea-level rise.

Alabama;Alberta;Arkansas;Colorado;Georgia;Illinois↗