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Comparative phylogeography reveals deep lineages and regional evolutionary hotspots in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts

Aim: We explored lineage diversification within desert-dwelling fauna. Our goals were (1) to determine whether phylogenetic lineages and population expansions were consistent with younger Pleistocene climate fluctuation hypotheses or much older events predicted by pre-Pleistocene vicariance hypotheses, (2) to assess concordance in spatial patterns of genetic divergence and diversity among species and (3) to identify regional evolutionary hotspots of divergence and diversity and assess their conservation status. Location: Mojave, Colorado, and Sonoran Deserts, USA. Methods: We analysed previously published gene sequence data for twelve species. We used Bayesian gene tree methods to estimate lineages and divergence times. Within each lineage, we tested for population expansion and age of expansion using coalescent approaches. We mapped interpopulation genetic divergence and intra-population genetic diversity in a GIS to identify hotspots of highest genetic divergence and diversity and to assess whether protected lands overlapped with evolutionary hotspots. Results: In seven of the 12 species, lineage divergence substantially predated the Pleistocene. Historical population expansion was found in eight species, but expansion events postdated the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in only four. For all species assessed, six hotspots of high genetic divergence and diversity were concentrated in the Colorado Desert, along the Colorado River and in the Mojave/Sonoran ecotone. At least some proportion of the land within each recovered hotspot was categorized as protected, yet four of the six also overlapped with major areas of human development. Main conclusions: Most of the species studied here diversified into distinct Mojave and Sonoran lineages prior to the LGM – supporting older diversification hypotheses. Several evolutionary hotspots were recovered but are not strategically paired with areas of protected land. Long-term preservation of species-level biodiversity would entail selecting areas for protection in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts to retain divergent genetic diversity and ensure connectedness across environmental gradients.

Colorado Desert;Mojave Desert;Sonoran Desert

Surface rupture map of the 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska: Digital data

The November 3, 2002, Mw7.9 Denali Fault earthquake produced about 340 km of surface rupture along the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault and the right-lateral, strike-slip Denali and Totschunda Faults. Digital photogrammetric methods were primarily used to create a 1:500-scale, three-dimensional surface rupture map, and 1:6,000-scale aerial photographs were used for three-dimensional digitization in ESRI's ArcMap GIS software, using Leica's StereoAnalyst plug in. Points were digitized 4.3 m apart, on average, for the entire surface rupture. Earthquake-induced landslides, sackungen, and unruptured Holocene fault scarps on the eastern Denali Fault were also digitized where they lay within the limits of air photo coverage. This digital three-dimensional fault-trace map is superior to traditional maps in terms of relative and absolute accuracy, completeness, and detail and is used as a basis for three-dimensional visualization. Field work complements the air photo observations in locations of dense vegetation, on bedrock, or in areas where the surface trace is weakly developed. Seventeen km of the fault trace, which broke through glacier ice, were not digitized in detail due to time constraints, and air photos missed another 10 km of fault rupture through the upper Black Rapids Glacier, so that was not mapped in detail either.

Alaska

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Open-File Report

EAARL topography – Gateway National Recreation Area, Sandy Hook Unit

This Web site contains Lidar-derived topography (bare earth) maps and GIS files for the Sandy Hook Unit within Gateway National Recreation Area in New Jersey. These Lidar-derived topography maps were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program, FISC St. Petersburg, the National Park Service (NPS) South Florida/Caribbean Network Inventory and Monitoring Program, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility. One objective of this research is to create techniques to survey coral reefs and barrier islands for the purposes of geomorphic change studies, habitat mapping, ecological monitoring, change detection, and event assessment. As part of this project, data from an innovative instrument under development at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, the NASA Experimental Airborne Advanced Research Lidar (EAARL) are being used. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in this realm for measuring subaerial and submarine topography wthin cross-environment surveys. High spectral resolution, water-column correction, and low costs were found to be key factors in providing accurate and affordable imagery to costal resource managers.

New York

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge and Maximum Observed Peak Discharge in New Mexico and Surrounding Areas

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable design of bridges, culverts, and open-channel hydraulic analysis, and for flood-hazard mapping in New Mexico and surrounding areas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Department of Transportation, updated estimates of peak-discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and updated regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites by use of data collected through 2004 for 293 gaging stations on unregulated streams that have 10 or more years of record. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 140 of the 293 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge by having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each of the nine regions, logarithms of the maximum peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics by using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then were applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 38 to 93 percent (mean value is 62, and median value is 59) for the 100-year flood. The 1996 investigation standard error of prediction for the flood regions ranged from 41 to 96 percent (mean value is 67, and median value is 68) for the 100-year flood that was analyzed by using generalized least-squares regression analysis. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are more reliable than those in the 1996 report because of the increased length of record and improved geographic information system (GIS) method to determine basin and climatic characteristics. Flood-frequency estimates can be made for ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations by using a method that transfers flood-frequency data at the gaging station to the ungaged site by using a drainage-area ratio adjustment equation. The peak discharge for a given recurrence interval at the gaging station, drainage-area ratio, and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region is used to transfer the peak discharge for the recurrence interval to the ungaged site. Maximum observed peak discharge as related to drainage area was determined for New Mexico. Extreme events are commonly used in the design and appraisal of bridge crossings and other structures. Bridge-scour evaluations are commonly made by using the 500-year peak discharge for these appraisals. Peak-discharge data collected at 293 gaging stations and 367 miscellaneous sites were used to develop a maximum peak-discharge relation as an alternative method of estimating peak discharge of an extreme event such as a maximum probable flood.

Scientific Investigations Report

Flood-inundation maps for the Elkhart River at Goshen, Indiana

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs, created digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.3-mile reach of the Elkhart River at Goshen, Indiana, extending from downstream of the Goshen Dam to downstream from County Road 17. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to nine selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Elkhart River at Goshen (station number 04100500). Current conditions for the USGS streamgages in Indiana may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ . In addition, stream stage data have been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) . The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relation at the Elkhart River at Goshen streamgage. The hydraulic model was then used to compute nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from approximately bankfull (5 ft) to greater than the highest recorded water level (13 ft). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital-elevation model (DEM), derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and 3.9-ft horizontal resolution in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Indiana

Offshore landslide hazard curves from mapped landslide size distributions

We present a method to calculate landslide hazard curves along offshore margins based on size distributions of submarine landslides. The method analyzes ten different continental margins, that were mapped by high-resolution multibeam sonar with landslide scar areas measured by a consistent GIS procedure. Statistical tests of several different probability distribution models indicate that the lognormal model is most appropriate for these siliciclastic environments, consistent with an earlier study of the U.S. Atlantic margin [Chaytor et al., 2009]. Parameter estimation is performed using the maximum likelihood technique and confidence intervals are determined using likelihood profiles. Pairwise comparison of size distributions for the ten margins indicates that the U.S. Atlantic and Queen Charlotte margins are different than most other margins. These margins represent end members, with the U.S. Atlantic margin having the highest mean scar area and the Queen Charlotte margin, the lowest. We demonstrate that empirical, offshore landslide hazard curves can be developed from the landslide size distributions, if the duration of mapped landslide activity is known. This study indicates that the shape parameter of the size distribution is similar among all ten margins and thus the shape of the hazard curves is also similar. Significant differences in hazard curves among the margins are therefore related to differences in mean sizes and, potentially, differences in the duration of landslide activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Fort Collins Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey's Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) is one of 17 USGS biological science centers nationwide. FORT conducts research and develops technical applications to assist land managers in understanding and managing biological resources, habitats, and ecosystems. Although the majority of FORT's activities are conducted within the 15-state Central Region of the USGS, many FORT projects are national or international in scope. FORT serves all Department of the Interior land management bureaus and other natural resource agencies. In addition, FORT scientists partner with DOI and other federal entities such as CDC, DOE, EPA, NASA, NIH, and USDA to share expertise and resources. FORT also partners with several universities and works cooperatively with states and nongovernmental organizations. Products and services include reports and publications, predictive models and software, maps and GIS products, and other technical assistance in the form of meetings, workshops, training, field visits, and needs assessments.

Fact Sheet

Assessment of propeller and off-road vehicle scarring in seagrass beds and wind-tidal flats of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico

We used aerial photography and GIS to establish a quantitative baseline of propeller and off-road vehicle (ORV) scarring in seagrass and wind-tidal flats of the upper Laguna Madre in the Padre Island National Seashore (Texas, USA). We also examined scar recovery through comparison of recent (2002, 2005) and historical (1967) aerial photographs of the study area. Scarring intensity was calculated using two different methods. In the first, polygons were visually drawn around groups of scars on digital images. Scarring intensity was estimated as light (<5%), moderate (5-20%), or severe (>20%), based on the total coverage of scars within each polygon (taking into account the length, width, and density of scars). We developed a more objective method that employed creation of vector grid cells and buffers that incorporated the localized ecological impact of scars. Results of spatial and temporal analysis revealed that the polygon approach greatly underestimated the magnitude of scarring. For example, in a single photograph, 7% of seagrass area was lightly scarred according to the polygon method; but light scarring increased to 51% according to grid analysis of the same image. Our results also indicated that propeller scars in Halodule wrightii beds appear to recover in less than three years and ORV tracks have persisted in the wind-tidal flats for at least 38 years. Our approach provides resource managers with procedures for a more objective and efficient assessment of physical disturbances to seagrass and wind-tidal flats caused by boats and ORVs. ?? 2008 by Walter de Gruyter.

Botanica Marina

EAARL submarine topography: Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

This Web site contains 46 Lidar-derived submarine topography maps and GIS files for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. These Lidar-derived submarine topographic maps were produced as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program, FISC St. Petersburg, Florida, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Remote Sensing Division, the National Park Service (NPS) South Florida/Caribbean Network Inventory and Monitoring Program, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility. One objective of this research is to create techniques to survey coral reefs and barrier islands for the purposes of geomorphic change studies, habitat mapping, ecological monitoring, change detection, and event assessment. As part of this project, data from an innovative instrument under development at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, the NASA Experimental Airborne Advanced Research Lidar (EAARL) are being used. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in this realm for measuring subaerial and submarine topography within cross-environment surveys. High spectral resolution, water-column correction, and low costs were found to be key factors in providing accurate and affordable imagery to coastal resource managers.

Florida

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Manag

Geology, Geochemistry and Geophysics of Sedimentary Rock-Hosted Au Deposits in P.R. China

This is the second report concerning results of a joint project between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Tianjin Geological Academy to study sedimentary rock-hosted Au deposits in P.R. China. Since the 1980s, Chinese geologists have devoted a large-scale exploration and research effort to the deposits. As a result, there are more than 20 million oz of proven Au reserves in sedimentary rock-hosted Au deposits in P.R. China. Additional estimated and inferred resources are present in over 160 deposits and occurrences, which are undergoing exploration. This makes China second to Nevada in contained ounces of Au in Carlin-type deposits. It is likely that many of the Carlin-type Au ore districts in China, when fully developed, could have resource potential comparable to the multi-1,000-tonne Au resource in northern Nevada. The six chapters of this report describe sedimentary rock-hosted Au deposits that were visited during the project. Chapters 1 and 2 provide an overview of sedimentary rock-hosted Au deposits and Carlin-type Au deposits and also provide a working classification for the sedimentary rock-hosted Au deposits. Chapters 3, 4, and 5 provide descriptions that were compiled from the literature in China in three main areas: the Dian-Qian-Gui, the Qinling fold belt, and Middle-Lower Yangtze River areas. Chapter 6 contains a weights-of-evidence (WofE), GIS-based mineral assessment of sedimentary rock-hosted Au deposits in the Qinling fold belt and Dian-Qian-Gui areas. Appendices contain scanned aeromagnetic (Appendix I) and gravity (Appendix II) geophysical maps of south and central China. Data tables of the deposits (Appendix III) also are available in the first report as an interactive database at http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/open-file/of98-466/. Geochemical analysis of ore samples from the deposits visited are contained in Appendix IV.

Open-File Report

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps: An example from the Los Angeles, California, area

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10-m grid spacing in the ARC/INFO GIS platform. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.

California

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

Regional equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-peak discharges at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed by means of ordinary and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression techniques. One-variable, simple equations and three-variable, full-model equations were developed on the basis of selected basin characteristics and flood-frequency estimates determined for 305 streamflow-gaging stations in Ohio and adjacent states. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 39 to 49 percent for the simple equations, and from about 34 to 41 percent for the full-model equations. Flood-frequency estimates determined by means of log-Pearson Type III analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III estimates and the regression estimates. Values of explanatory variables used in the regression models were determined from digital spatial data sets by means of a geographic information system (GIS), with the exception of drainage area, which was determined by digitizing the area within basin boundaries manually delineated on topographic maps. Use of GIS-based explanatory variables represents a major departure in methodology from that described in previous reports on estimating flood-frequency characteristics of Ohio streams. Examples are presented illustrating application of the regression equations to ungaged sites on ungaged and gaged streams. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site on the same stream. A region-of-influence method, which employs a computer program to estimate flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites with similar characteristics, was also tested and compared to the GLS full-model equations. For all recurrence intervals, the GLS full-model equations had superior prediction accuracy relative to the simple equations and therefore are recommended for use.

Ohio

The 2016 groundwater flow model for Dane County, Wisconsin

A new groundwater flow model for Dane County, Wisconsin, replaces an earlier model developed in the 1990s by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This modeling study was conducted cooperatively by the WGNHS and the USGS with funding from the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission (CARPC). Although the overall conceptual model of the groundwater system remains largely unchanged, the incorporation of newly acquired high-quality datasets, recent research findings, and improved modeling and calibration techniques have led to the development of a more detailed and sophisticated model representation of the groundwater system. The new model is three-dimensional and transient, and conceptualizes the county’s hydrogeology as a 12-layer system including all major unlithified and bedrock hydrostratigraphic units and two high-conductivity horizontal fracture zones. Beginning from the surface down, the model represents the unlithified deposits as two distinct model layers (1 and 2). A single layer (3) simulates the Ordovician sandstone and dolomite of the Sinnipee, Ancell, and Prairie du Chien Groups. Sandstone of the Jordan Formation (layer 4) and silty dolostone of the St. Lawrence Formation (layer 5) each comprise separate model layers. The underlying glauconitic sandstone of the Tunnel City Group makes up three distinct layers: an upper aquifer (layer 6), a fracture feature (layer 7), and a lower aquifer (layer 8). The fracture layer represents a network of horizontal bedding-plane fractures that serve as a preferential pathway for groundwater flow. The model simulates the sandstone of the Wonewoc Formation as an upper aquifer (layer 9) with a bedding-plane fracture feature (layer 10) at its base. The Eau Claire aquitard (layer 11) includes shale beds within the upper portion of the Eau Claire Formation. This layer, along with overlying bedrock units, is mostly absent in the preglacially eroded valleys along the Yahara River valley and in northeastern Dane County. Layer 12 represents the Mount Simon sandstone as the lowermost model layer. It directly overlies the Precambrian crystalline basement rock, whose top surface forms the lower boundary of the model. The model uses the USGS MODFLOW-NWT finite-difference code, a standalone version of MODFLOW-2005 that incorporates the Newton (NWT) solver. MODFLOW-NWT improves the handling of unconfined conditions by smoothing the transition from wet to dry cells. The model explicitly simulates groundwater–surface-water interaction with streamflow routing and lake-level fluctuation. Model input included published and unpublished hydrogeologic data from recent estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivities. A spatial groundwater recharge distribution was obtained from a recent GIS-based, soil-water-balance model for Dane County. Groundwater withdrawals from pumping were simulated for 572 wells across the entire model domain, which includes Dane County and portions of seven neighboring counties—Columbia, Dodge, Green, Iowa, Jefferson, Lafayette, and Rock. These wells withdrew an average of 60 million gallons per day (mgd) over the 5-year period from 2006 through 2010. Within Dane County, 385 wells were simulated with an average withdrawal rate of 52 mgd. Model calibration used the parameter estimation code PEST, and calibration targets included heads, stream and spring flows, lake levels, and borehole flows. Steady-state calibration focused on the period 2006 through 2010; the transient calibration focused on the 7-week drought period from late May through July 2012. This model represents a significant step forward from previous work because of its finer grid resolution, improved hydrostratigraphic discretization, transient capabilities, and more sophisticated representation of surface-water features and multi-aquifer wells. Potential applications of the model include evaluation of potential sites for and impacts of new high-capacity wells, development of wellhead protection plans, evaluating the effects of changing land use and climate on groundwater, and quantifying the relationships between groundwater and surface water.

Wisconsin

Surficial sediment character of the Louisiana offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

The Louisiana coastal zone, comprising the Mississippi River delta plain stretching nearly 400 km from Sabine Pass at the Texas border east to the Chandeleur Islands at the Mississippi border, represents one of North America’s most important coastal ecosystems in terms of natural resources, human infrastructure, and cultural heritage. At the same time, this region has the highest rates of coastal erosion and wetland loss in the Nation due to a complex combination of natural processes and anthropogenic actions over the past century. Comparison of historical maps dating back to 1855 and recent aerial photography show the Louisiana coast undergoing net erosion at highly variable rates. Rates have increased significantly during the past several decades. Earlier published statewide average shoreline erosion rates were >6 m/yr; rates have increased recently to >10 m/yr. The increase is attributable to collective action of storms, rapid subsidence, and pervasive man-made alterations of the rivers and the coast. In response to the dramatic landloss, regional-scale restoration plans are being developed by a partnership of federal and state agencies for the delta plain that have the objectives of maintaining the barrier islands, reducing wetland loss, and enhancing the natural sediment delivery processes. There is growing awareness that the sustainability of coastal Louisiana's natural resources and human infrastructure depends on the successful restoration of natural geologic processes. Critical to the long term success of restoration is scientific understanding of the geologic history and processes of the coastal zone region, including interactions between the rivers, wetlands, coast, and inner shelf. A variety of geophysical studies and mapping of Late Quaternary sedimentary framework and coastal processes by U.S. Geological Survey and other scientists during the past 50 years document that the Louisiana delta plain is the product of a complex history of cyclic delta switching by the Mississippi River and its distributaries over the past ~10,000 years that resulted in laterally overlapping deltaic depocenters. The interactions among riverine, coastal, and inner shelf processes have been superimposed on the Holocene transgression resulting in distinctive landforms and sedimentary sequences. Four Holocene shelf-phase delta complexes have been identified using seismic reflection data and vibracores. Each delta complex is bounded by transgressive surfaces. Following each cycle of deposition and abandonment, the delta lobes undergo regional subsidence and marine reworking that forms transgressive coastal systems and barrier islands. Ultimately, the distal end of each of the abandoned delta lobes is marked by submerged marine sand bodies representing drowned barriers. These sand bodies (e.g. Ship Shoal, Outer Shoal, Trinity Shoal, Tiger Shoal, St. Bernard Shoal) offer the largest volumes and highest quality sand for beach nourishment and shoreline and wetlands restoration. These four large sand shoals on inner continental shelf, representing the reworked remnants of former prograded deltaic headlands that existed on the continental shelf at lower sea level, were generated in the retreat path of the Mississippi River delta plain during the Holocene transgression. Penland and others (1989) have shown these sand bodies represent former shoreline positions associated with lower still stands in sea level. Short periods of rapid relative sea-level rise led to the transgressive submergence of the shorelines which today can be recognized at the -10 m to -20 m isobaths on the Louisiana continental shelf. Trinity Shoal and Ship Shoal represent the -10 m middle-to-late Holocene shoreline trend, whereas Outer Shoal and the St. Bernard Shoals define the -20 m early Holocene shoreline trend (Penland and others, 1989). Collectively, these sand shoals constitute a large volume of high quality sandy sediment potentially suitable for barrier island nourishment and coastal restoration. The USGS has actively supported coastal and wetlands geologic research for the past two decades in partnership with universities (e.g., Louisiana State University, University of New Orleans), state agencies (e.g. Louisiana Geological Survey, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources), and private organizations (Williams and others, 1992a,b; Williams and Cichon, 1993; List and others, 1994). These studies have focused on regional-scale mapping of coastal and wetland change and developing a better understanding of the processes that cause coastal erosion and wetlands loss, particularly the rapid deterioration of Louisiana's barrier islands, estuaries, and wetlands environments. With a better understanding of these processes, the ability to model and predict erosion and wetlands loss will improve. More accurate predictions will, in turn, allow for proper management of coastal resources. Improved predictions will also allow for better assessments of the utility of different restoration alternatives.

Louisiana

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology

Preliminary geologic framework developed for a proposed environmental monitoring study of a deep, unconventional Marcellus Shale drill site, Washington County, Pennsylvania

Background In the fall of 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was afforded an opportunity to participate in an environmental monitoring study of the potential impacts of a deep, unconventional Marcellus Shale hydraulic fracturing site. The drill site of the prospective case study is the “Range Resources MCC Partners L.P. Units 1-5H” location (also referred to as the “RR–MCC” drill site), located in Washington County, southwestern Pennsylvania. Specifically, the USGS was approached to provide a geologic framework that would (1) provide geologic parameters for the proposed area of a localized groundwater circulation model, and (2) provide potential information for the siting of both shallow and deep groundwater monitoring wells located near the drill pad and the deviated drill legs. The lead organization of the prospective case study of the RR–MCC drill site was the Groundwater and Ecosystems Restoration Division (GWERD) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Aside from the USGS, additional partners/participants were to include the Department of Energy, the Pennsylvania Geological Survey, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, and the developer Range Resources LLC. During the initial cooperative phase, GWERD, with input from the participating agencies, drafted a Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) that proposed much of the objectives, tasks, sampling and analytical procedures, and documentation of results. Later in 2012, the proposed cooperative agreement between the aforementioned partners and the associated land owners for a monitoring program at the drill site was not executed. Therefore, the prospective case study of the RR–MCC site was terminated and no installation of groundwater monitoring wells nor the collection of nearby soil, stream sediment, and surface-water samples were made. Prior to the completion of the QAPP and termination of the perspective case study the geologic framework was rapidly conducted and nearly completed. This was done for three principal reasons. First, there was an immediate need to know the distribution of the relatively undisturbed surface to near-surface bedrock geology and unconsolidated materials for the collection of baseline surface data prior to drill site development (drill pad access road, drill pad leveling) and later during monitoring associated with well drilling, well development, and well production. Second, it was necessary to know the bedrock geology to support the siting of: (1) multiple shallow groundwater monitoring wells (possibly as many as four) surrounding and located immediately adjacent to the drill pad, and (2) deep groundwater monitoring wells (possibly two) located at distance from the drill pad with one possibly being sited along one of the deviated production drill legs. Lastly, the framework geology would provide the lateral extent, thickness, lithology, and expected discontinuities of geologic units (to be parsed or grouped as hydrostratigraphic units) and regional structure trends as inputs into the groundwater model. This report provides the methodology of geologic data accumulation and aggregation, and its integration into a geographic information system (GIS) based program. The GIS program will allow multiple data to be exported in various formats (shapefiles [.shp], database files [.dbf], and Keyhole Markup Language files [.KML]) for use in surface and subsurface geologic site characterization, for sampling strategies, and for inputs for groundwater modeling.

Pennsylvania