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USGS2025

Benchmarking shoreline prediction models over multi-decadal timescales

Robust predictions of shoreline change are critical for sustainable coastal management. Despite advancements in shoreline models, objective benchmarking remains limited. Here we present results from ShoreShop2.0, an international collaborative benchmarking workshop, where 34 groups submitted shoreline change predictions in a blind competition. Subsets of shoreline observations at an undisclosed site (BeachX) over short (5-year) and medium (50-year) periods were withheld from modelers and used for model benchmarking. Using satellite-derived shoreline datasets for calibration and evaluation, the best performing models achieved prediction accuracies on the order of 10 m, comparable to the accuracy of the satellite shoreline data, indicating that certain beaches can be modelled nearly as well as they can be remotely observed. The outcomes from this collaborative benchmarking competition critically review the present state-of-the-art in shoreline change prediction as well as reveal model limitations, facilitate improvements, and offer insights for advancing shoreline-prediction capabilities.

New South Wales↗

USGS2004

Sequestration of carbon in soil organic matter in Senegal: an overview

Sequestration of Carbon in Soil Organic Matter ( SOCSOM ) in Senegal is a multi-disciplinary development project planned and refined through two international workshops. The project was implemented by integrating a core of international experts in remote sensing, biogeochemical modeling, community socio-economic assessments, and carbon measurements in a fully collaborative manner with Senegal organizations, national scientists, and local knowledge and expertise. The study addresses the potential role developing countries in semi-arid areas can play in climate mitigation activities. Multiple benefits to smallholders could accrue as a result of management practices to re-establish soil carbon content lost because of land use changes or management practices that are not sustainable. The specific importance for the Sahel is because of the high vulnerability to climate change in already impoverished rural societies. The project focuses on four objectives in specific locations across the agroecological zones of Senegal. These objectives are: use of soil sampling and biogeochemical modeling to quantify the biophysical potential for carbon sequestration and to determine the sensitivity of the carbon stocks to various management and climate scenarios, to evaluate the socio-economic and cultural requirements necessary for successful project implementation directed toward an aggregation of smallholders to sequester around 100,000 t carbon (C), to support capacity building to develop a Carbon Specialist Team, and to initiate extrapolation from site-specific project areas to the Sahel region and the national level.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2012

Refining the model of barrier island formation along a paraglacial coast in the Gulf of Maine

Details of the internal architecture and local geochronology of Plum Island, the longest barrier in the Gulf of Maine, have refined our understanding of barrier island formation in paraglacial settings. Ground-penetrating radar and shallow-seismic profiles coupled with sediment cores and radiocarbon dates provide an 8000-year evolutionary history of this barrier system in response to changes in sediment sources and supply rates as well as variability in the rate of sea-level change. The barrier sequence overlies tills of Wisconsinan and Illinoian glaciations as well as late Pleistocene glaciomarine clay deposited during the post-glacial sea-level highstand at approximately 17 ka. Holocene sediment began accumulating at the site of Plum Island at 7–8 ka, in the form of coarse fluvial channel-lag deposits related to the 50-m wide erosional channel of the Parker River that carved into underlying glaciomarine deposits during a lower stand of sea level. Plum Island had first developed in its modern location by ca. 3.6 ka through onshore migration and vertical accretion of reworked regressive and lowstand deposits. The prevalence of southerly, seaward-dipping layers indicates that greater than 60% of the barrier lithosome developed in its modern location through southerly spit progradation, consistent with a dominantly longshore transport system driven by northeast storms. Thinner sequences of northerly, landward-dipping clinoforms represent the northern recurve of the prograding spit. A 5–6-m-thick inlet-fill sequence was identified overlying the lower stand fluvial deposit; its stratigraphy captures events of channel migration, ebb-delta breaching, onshore bar migration, channel shoaling and inlet infilling associated with the migration and eventual closure of the inlet. This inlet had a maximum cross-sectional area of 2800 m2 and was active around 3.5–3.6 ka. Discovery of this inlet suggests that the tidal prism was once larger than at present. Bay infilling, driven by the import of sediment into the backbarrier environment through tidal inlets, as well as minor sediment contribution from local rivers, led to a vast reduction in the bay tidal prism. This study demonstrates that, prior to about 3 ka, Plum Island and its associated marshes, tidal flats, and inlets were in a paraglacial environment; that is, their main source of sediment was derived from the erosion and reworking of glaciogenic deposits. Since that time, Plum Island has been in a state of dynamic equilibrium with its non-glacial sediment sources and therefore can be largely considered to be in a stable, “post-paraglacial” state. This study is furthermore the first in the Gulf of Maine to show that spit accretion and inlet processes were the dominant mechanisms in barrier-island formation and thus serves as a foundation for future investigations of barrier development in response to backbarrier infilling.

Massachusetts↗

USGS1999

Depositional history of the Fire Clay coal bed (Late Duckmantian), Eastern Kentucky, USA

More than 3800 coal thickness measurements, proximate analyses from 97 localities, and stratigraphic and sedimentological analyses from more than 300 outcrops and cores were used in conjunction with previously reported palynological and petrographic studies to map individual benches of the coal and document bench-scale variability in the Fire Clay (Hazard No. 4) coal bed across a 1860 km2 area of the Eastern Kentucky Coal Field. The bench architecture of the Fire Clay coal bed consists of uncommon leader benches, a persistent but variable lower bench, a widespread, and generally thick upper bench, and local, variable rider benches. Rheotrophic conditions are inferred for the leader benches and lower bench based on sedimentological associations, mixed palynomorph assemblages, locally common cannel coal layers, and generally high ash yields. The lower bench consistently exhibits vertical variability in petrography and palynology that reflects changing trophic conditions as topographic depressions infilled. Infilling also led to unconfined flooding and ultimately the drowning of the lower bench mire. The drowned mire was covered by an air-fall volcanic-ash deposit, which produced the characteristic flint clay parting. The extent and uniform thickness of the parting suggests that the ash layer was deposited in water on a relatively flat surface without a thick canopy or extensive standing vegetation across most of the study area. Ash deposits led to regional ponding and establishment of a second planar mire. Because the topography had become a broadly uniform, nutrient-rich surface, upper-bench peats became widespread with large areas of the mire distant to clastic sources. Vertical sections of thick (> 70 cm), low-ash yield, upper coal bench show a common palynomorph change from arborescent lycopod dominance upward to fern and densospore-producing, small lycopod dominance, inferred as a shift from planar to ombrotrophic mire phases. Domed mires appear to have been surrounded by wide areas of planar mires, where the coal was thinner (< 70 cm), higher in ash yield, and dominated by arborescent lycopods. Rectangular thickness trends suggest that syndepositional faulting influenced peat accumulation, and possibly the position of the domed mire phase. Faulting also influenced post-depositional clastic environments of deposition, resulting in sandstone channels with angular changes in orientation. Channels and lateral facies were locally draped by high-ash-yield rider coal benches, which sometimes merged with the upper coal bench. These arborescent-lycopod dominant rider coal benches were profoundly controlled by palcotopography, much like the leader coal benches. Each of the benches of coal documented here represent distinctly different mires that came together to form the Fire Clay coal bed, rather than a single mire periodically split by clastic influx. This is significant as each bench of the coal has its own characteristics, which contribute to the total coal characteristics. The large data set allows interpretation of both vertical and lateral limits to postulated domed phases in the upper coal bench, and to the delineation of subtle tectonic structures that allow for meaningful thickness projections beyond the limits of present mining.A study was conducted to analyze the depositional history of the Fire Clay coal bed in the eastern Kentucky coal field. The study involved over 3800 coal thickness measurements, proximate analyses from 97 localities, and stratigraphic and sedimentological analyses from more than 300 outcrops and cores in conjunction with previously reported palynological and petrographic studies to map individual benches of the coal and document bench-scale variability.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2020

Applying cumulative effects to strategically advance large‐scale ecosystem restoration

International efforts to restore degraded ecosystems will continue to expand over the coming decades, yet the factors contributing to the effectiveness of long‐term restoration across large areas remain largely unexplored. At large scales, outcomes are more complex and synergistic than the additive impacts of individual restoration projects. Here, we propose a cumulative‐effects conceptual framework to inform restoration design and implementation and to comprehensively measure ecological outcomes. To evaluate and illustrate this approach, we reviewed long‐term restoration in several large coastal and riverine areas across the US: the greater Florida Everglades; Gulf of Mexico coast; lower Columbia River and estuary; Puget Sound; San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta; Missouri River; and northeastern coastal states. Evidence supported eight modes of cumulative effects of interacting restoration projects, which improved outcomes for species and ecosystems at landscape and regional scales. We conclude that cumulative effects, usually measured for ecosystem degradation, are also measurable for ecosystem restoration. The consideration of evidence‐based cumulative effects will help managers of large‐scale restoration capitalize on positive feedback and reduce countervailing effects.

Gulf of Mexico, San Francisco Bay/Sacramento Delta↗

USGS2019

Statistical learning mitigation of false positives from template-detected data in automated acoustic wildlife monitoring

Audio sampling of the environment can provide long-term, landscape-scale presence-absence data to model populations of sound-producing wildlife. Automated detection systems allow researchers to avoid manually searching through large volumes of recordings, but often produce unacceptable false positive rates. We developed methods that allow researchers to improve template-based automated detection using a suite of statistical learning algorithms when false positive rates are problematic. To test our method, we acquired 668 hours of recordings in the Sonoran Desert, California USA between March 2016 and May 2017, and created spectrogram cross-correlation templates for three target avian species. We trained and tested five classification algorithms and four performance-weighted ensemble classifier methods on target signals and false alarms from March 2016, and then selected high-performing ensemble classifiers from the train/test phase to predict the class of new detections thereafter. For three target species, our ensemble classifiers were able to identify 98%, 81%, and 100% of false alarms compared with the baseline template detection system, and comparative positive predictive values improved from 6% to 69%, 87% to 95%, and 2% to 77%. We show that statistical learning approaches can be implemented to mitigate false detections acquired via template-based automated detection in automated acoustic wildlife monitoring.

California↗

USGS2011

National Assessment of Shoreline Change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of this study, the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts is the fifth in a series of reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast Atlantic, and, for California, the sandy shoreline and the coastal cliffs. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Because of the geomorphology of the New England and Mid-Atlantic (rocky coastlines, large embayments and beaches) as well as data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 78 percent of the 1,360 kilometers of the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The New England and Mid-Atlantic shores were subdivided into a total of 10 analysis regions for the purpose of reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts was -0.5 meters per year with an uncertainty in the long-term trend of plus or minus 0.09 meters per year. The rate is based on shoreline change rates averaged from 21,184 individual transects, of which 68 percent were eroding. In both the long and short term, the average rates of shoreline change for New England and the Mid-Atlantic were erosional. Long-term erosion rates were generally lower in New England than in the Mid-Atlantic. This is a function of the dominant coastal geomorphology; New England has a greater percentage of shore types that tend to erode more slowly (rocky coasts, pocket beaches, and mainland beaches), whereas the Mid-Atlantic is dominated by more vulnerable barrier islands and dynamic spit/inlet environments. However, the percentage of coastline eroding was higher in New England than in the Mid-Atlantic, highlighting that although rates of shoreline erosion may not be extreme, coastal erosion is still widespread along this region of the U.S. coastline. The average rate of short-term shoreline change for the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts was also erosional but the rate of erosion decreased in comparison to long-term rates. The net short-term rate as averaged along 17,045 transects was -0.3 meters per year. Uncertainties for these rates range from 0.06 to 0.1 meters per year depending on the data sources used in the rate calculations. Of transects used to measure short-term change, 60 percent were erosional, as compared to 65 percent of coast eroding in the long term. The slight decrease (5 percent) in the amount of coastline eroding may be related to an increase in the frequency and extent of nourishment programs and (or) the effects of hardened structures during the more recent time period. The most stable (lower rates of erosion) beaches were more commonly found in New England. Despite an overall lowering of the average rates of erosion from long-term to short-term, the amount

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Hydrogen isotope behavior during rhyolite glass hydration under hydrothermal conditions

The diffusion of molecular water (H 2 O m ) from the environment into volcanic glass can hydrate the glass up to several wt% at low temperature over long timescales. During this process, the water imprints its hydrogen isotope composition (δD H2O ) to the glass (δD gl ) offset by a glass-H 2 O fractionation factor (ΔD gl-H2O = δD gl – δD H2O ) which is approximately −33‰ at Earth surface temperatures. Glasses hydrate much more rapidly at higher, sub-magmatic temperatures as they interact with H 2 O during eruption, transport, and emplacement. To aid in the interpretation of δD gl in natural samples, we present hydrogen isotope results from vapor hydration experiments conducted at 175–375 °C for durations of hours to months using natural volcanic glasses. The results can be divided into two thermal regimes: above 250 °C and below 250 °C. Lower temperature experiments yield raw ΔD gl-H2O values in the range of −33 ± 11‰. Experiments at 225 °C using both positive and negative initial ΔD gl-H2O values converge on this range of values, suggesting this range represents the approximate equilibrium fractionation for H isotopes between glass and H 2 O vapor (10 3 lnα gl-H2O ) below 250 °C. Variation in ΔD gl-H2O (−33 ± 11‰) between different experiments and glasses may arise from incomplete hydration, analytical uncertainty, differences in glass chemistry, and/or subordinate kinetic isotope effects. Experiments above 250 °C yield unexpectedly low δD gl values with ΔD gl-H2O values of ≤–85‰. While alteration alone is incapable of explaining the data, these run products have more extensive surface alteration and are not interpreted to reflect equilibrium fractionation between glass and H 2 O vapor. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) shows that glass can hydrate with as much as 5.9 wt% H 2 O m and 1.0 wt% hydroxl (OH − ) in the highest P-T experiment at 375 °C and 21.1 MPa. Therefore, we employ a 1D isotope diffusion–reaction model of glass hydration to evaluate the roles of equilibrium fractionation, isotope diffusion, water speciation reactions internal to the glass, and changing boundary conditions (e.g. alteration and dissolution). At lower temperatures, the best fitting model results to experimental data for low silica rhyolite (LSR) glasses require only an equilibrium fractionation factor and yield 10 3 lnα gl-H2O values of −33‰ ± 5‰ and −25‰ ± 5‰ at 175 °C and 225 °C, respectively. At higher temperatures, ΔD gl-H2O is dominated by boundary layer effects during glass hydration and glass surface alteration. The modeled bulk δD gl value is highly responsive to changes in the δD gl boundary condition regardless of the magnitude of other kinetic effects. Observed glass dissolution and surficial secondary mineral formation are likely to impose a disequilibrium boundary layer that drives extreme δD gl fractionation with progressive glass hydration. These results indicate that the observed ΔD gl-H2O of ∼−33 ± 11‰ can be cautiously applied as an equilibrium 10 3 lnα gl-H2O value to natural silicic glasses hydrated below 250 °C to identify hydration sources. This approximate ΔD gl-H2O may be applicable to even higher temperature glasses hydrated on short timescales (of seconds to minutes) in phreatomagmatic or submarine eruptions before H 2 O in the glass is primarily affected by boundary layer effects associated with alteration on the glass surface.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS1956

Summary of reconnaissance for radioactive deposits in Alaska, 1945-1954, and an appraisal of Alaskan uranium possibilities

In the period 1945-1954 over 100 investigations for radioactive source materials were made in Alaska. The nature of these investigations ranged from field examinations of individual prospects or the laboratory analysis of significantly radioactive samples submitted by prospectors to reconnaissance studies of large districts. In this period no deposits of uranium or thorium that would warrant commercial exploitation were discovered. The investigations, however, disclosed that radioactive materials occur in widely scattered areas of Alaska and in widely diverse environments. Many igneous rocks throughout Alaska are weakly radioactive because of uranium- and thorium-bearing accessory minerals, such as allanite, apatite, monazite, sphene, xenotime, and zircon; more rarely the radioactivity of these rocks is due to thorianite or thorite and their uranoan varieties. The felsic rocks, for example, granites and syenites, are generally more radioactive than the mafic igneous rocks. Pegmatites, locally, have also proved to be radioactive, but they have little commercial significance. No primary uranium oxide minerals have been found yet in Alaskan vein deposits, except, perhaps, for a mineral tentatively identified as pitchblende in the Hyder district of southeastern Alaska. However, certain occurrences of secondary uranium minerals, chiefly those of the uranite group, on the Seward Peninsula, in the Russian Mountains, and in the vicinity of Kodiak suggest that pitchblende-type ores may occur at depth beneath zones of alteration. Thorite-bearing veins have been discovered on Prince of Wales Island in southeastern Alaska. Although no deposits or carnotite-type minerals have been found in Alaska, several samples containing such minerals have been submitted by Alaskan prospectors. Efforts to locate the deposits from which these minerals were obtained have been unsuccessful, but review of available geologic data suggests that several Alaskan areas are potentially favorable for carnotite-type deposits. The chief of these areas is the Alaska Peninsula-Cook Inlet area which encompasses most of the reported occurrences of the prospectors' carnotite-type samples. Alaska is also potentially favorable for the occurrence of large bodies of the very low-grade uraniferous sedimentary rocks, such as phosphorites and black shales. This type of deposit, however, has not received much study because of the emphasis on the search for bonanza-type high-grade ores. Uraniferous phosphorites similar to those of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming occur in northern Alaska on the north flank of the Brooks Range; black shales comparable to the uraniferous shales of the Chattanooga formation of southeastern United States have been noted along the Yukon River near the international boundary. Placer deposits in Alaska have some small potential for the production of the radioactive elements as byproducts of gold- and tin-placer mining. the placer area believed to have the relatively greatest potential in Alaska lies in the Kahiltna River valley where concentrates are known to contain such commercial minerals as ilmenite, cassiterite, platinum, and gold in addition to uranothorianite and monazite. The possibilities of the natural fluids--water and petroleum--have not yet been tested in Alaska to any great extent. Studies of fluids are in progress to determine whether they may be used to discover and define areas potentially favorable for the occurrence of uraniferous lodes.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with &sim;730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

California↗

USGS1985

Geologic history of Goban Spur, Northwest Europe continental margin

Drilling on Leg 80 of the Deep Sea Drilling Project-International Phase of Ocean Drilling was conducted on a transect of four sites (548-551) across the continent-ocean boundary at Goban Spur, a prominent southwest-trending structural and topographic high on the Irish continental slope. Drilling results have been integrated with physiographic, gravimetric, paleomagnetic, and seismostratigraphic data to provide a comprehensive interpretation of the geologic history of this sediment-starved passive margin. The geologic history of Goban Spur and adjacent regions may be divided into three periods: (1) a pre-rift period, beginning at the end of the Hercynian orogeny, was marked by several phases of regional faulting. From the late Paleozoic to the Triassic, a major phase was responsible for the development of northeast-trending grabens and horsts, which were especially active areas of deposition during the early and middle Mesozoic. A second phase created northwesttrending listric, normal fault systems which delineated the pre-Atlantic rift system of the Early Cretaceous. (2) A terminal period of active rifting began approximately at the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary (late Cimmerian phase), and was marked by a regional emergence. Syn-rift deposition is recorded at Goban Spur by accumulation of a transgressive sequence of hyposaline to pelagic sediments, chiefly Barremian. Interpretation of seismic profiles indicates that (?)Aptian sequences also were deposited in the deeper half-grabens during this phase of rifting. Volcanic rocks appear to be rare or absent in the syn-rift deposits on Goban Spur. (3) The post-rifting period began when ocean crust was accreted in a trough approximately 2000 m deep, beneath what is now the Porcupine Abyssal Plain. This period was marked by the outpouring of pillows and flows of typical oceanic tholeiites, some of which were recovered at Site 550. At the same time, the seaward edge of the continental crust appears to have been deeply intruded by oceanic tholeiites, forming an intermediate crust of transitional geophysical characteristics. Post-rift sedimentation started in the early Albian, and was accompanied by continuous regional subsidence. Before the Campanian, variable depositional environments produced quite diverse sedimentary sequences in the isolated halfgrabens. Carbonaceous shales were recovered in Cenomanian strata of the deepest site (550) and in lower Turonian beds at sites of intermediate depth (549-551). Depositional environments became more uniform across the margin after the late Campanian, and sedimentation was clearly influenced by more regional or global oceanographic events. Sea-level oscillations, climatic variations, changes in bottom circulation, and vertical fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) were responsible for lithologic changes and major hiatuses.

Initial reports of the Deep Sea Drilling Project↗

USGS2018

Northeast

The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural resource-dependent industries (see Ch. 10: Ag & Rural, Key Message 4) . The recent dominant trend in precipitation throughout the Northeast has been towards increases in rainfall intensity, with increases in intensity exceeding those in other regions of the contiguous United States. Further increases in rainfall intensity are expected, with increases in total precipitation expected during the winter and spring but with little change in the summer. Monthly precipitation in the Northeast is projected to be about 1 inch greater for December through April by end of century (2070–2100) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Ocean and coastal ecosystems are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions. These ecosystems support fishing and aquaculture, tourism and recreation, and coastal communities. Observed and projected increases in temperature, acidification, storm frequency and intensity, and sea levels are of particular concern for coastal and ocean ecosystems, as well as local communities and their interconnected social and economic systems. Increasing temperatures and changing seasonality on the Northeast Continental Shelf have affected marine organisms and the ecosystem in various ways. The warming trend experienced in the Northeast Continental Shelf has been associated with many fish and invertebrate species moving northward and to greater depths. Because of the diversity of the Northeast’s coastal landscape, the impacts from storms and sea level rise will vary at different locations along the coast. Northeastern cities, with their abundance of concrete and asphalt and relative lack of vegetation, tend to have higher temperatures than surrounding regions due to the urban heat island effect. During extreme heat events, nighttime temperatures in the region’s big cities are generally several degrees higher than surrounding regions, leading to higher risk of heat-related death. Urban areas are at risk for large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure due to both extreme precipitation events and recurrent flooding, potentially requiring significant emergency response efforts and consideration of a long-term commitment to rebuilding and adaptation, and/or support for relocation where needed. Much of the infrastructure in the Northeast, including drainage and sewer systems, flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and power supply, is nearing the end of its planned life expectancy. Climate-related disruptions will only exacerbate existing issues with aging infrastructure. Sea level rise has amplified storm impacts in the Northeast (Key Message 2), contributing to higher surges that extend farther inland, as demonstrated in New York City in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Service and resource supply infrastructure in the Northeast is at increasing risk of disruption, resulting in lower quality of life, economic declines, and increased social inequality. Loss of public services affects the capacity of communities to function as administrative and economic centers and triggers disruptions of interconnected supply chains (Ch. 16: International, Key Message 1) . Increases in annual average temperatures across the Northeast range from less than 1°F (0.6°C) in West Virginia to about 3°F (1.7°C) or more in New England since 1901. Although the relative risk of death on very hot days is lower today than it was a few decades ago, heat-related illness and death remain significant public health problems in the Northeast. For example, a study in New York City estimated that in 2013 there were 133 excess deaths due to extreme heat. These projected increases in temperature are expected to lead to substantially more premature deaths, hospital admissions, and emergency department visits across the Northeast. For example, in the Northeast we can expect approximately 650 additional premature deaths per year from extreme heat by the year 2050 under either a lower (RCP4.5) or higher (RCP8.5) scenario and from 960 (under RCP4.5) to 2,300 (under RCP8.5) more premature deaths per year by 2090. Communities, towns, cities, counties, states, and tribes across the Northeast are engaged in efforts to build resilience to environmental challenges and adapt to a changing climate. Developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies in daily practice often occur in collaboration with state and federal agencies (e.g., New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance 2017, New York Climate Clearinghouse 2017, Rhode Island STORMTOOLS 2017, EPA 2017, CDC 2015 ). Advances in rural towns, cities, and suburban areas include low-cost adjustments of existing building codes and standards. In coastal areas, partnerships among local communities and federal and state agencies leverage federal adaptation tools and decision support frameworks (for example, NOAA’s Digital Coast, USGS’s Coastal Change Hazards Portal, and New Jersey’s Getting to Resilience). Increasingly, cities and towns across the Northeast are developing or implementing plans for adaptation and resilience in the face of changing climate (e.g., EPA 2017 ). The approaches are designed to maintain and enhance the everyday lives of residents and promote economic development. In some cities, adaptation planning has been used to respond to present and future challenges in the built environment. Regional efforts have recommended changes in design standards when building, replacing, or retrofitting infrastructure to account for a changing climate.

Report↗

USGS2024

An accuracy assessment of the surface reflectance product from the EMIT imaging spectrometer

The Earth surface Mineral dust source InvesTigation (EMIT) is an imaging spectrometer launched to the International Space Station in July 2022 to measure the mineral composition of Earth’s dust-producing regions. We present a systematic accuracy assessment of the EMIT surface reflectance product in two parts. First, we characterize the surface reflectance product’s overall performance using multiple independent vicarious calibration field experiments with hand-held and automated field spectrometers. We find that the EMIT surface reflectance product has a standard error of ±1.0 % in absolute reflectance units for temporally coincident observations. Discrepancies rise to ±2.7 % for spectra acquired at different dates and times of day, which we attribute mainly to changes in solar geometry. Second, we develop an error budget that explains the differences between EMIT and in-situ field spectrometer data. We find that uncertainties in spatial footprints, field spectroscopy, and the EMIT-reported measurement were sufficient to explain discrepancies in most cases. Our approach did not detect any systematic calibration or reflectance errors in the timespan considered. Together, these findings demonstrate that a space-based imaging spectrometer can acquire high-quality spectra across a wide range of observational and atmospheric conditions.

Nevada↗

USGS2013

Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes

Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2001

Quality-assurance data for routine water quality analyses by the U. S. Geological Survey laboratory in Troy, New York; July 1993 through June 1995

A laboratory for analysis of low-ionic strength water has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) office in Troy, N.Y., to analyze samples collected by USGS projects in the Northeast. The laboratory's quality-assurance program is based on internal and interlaboratory quality-assurance samples and quality-control procedures developed to ensure proper sample collection, processing, and analysis. The quality-assurance/quality-control data are stored in the laboratory's SAS data-management system, which provides efficient review, compilation, and plotting of quality-assurance/quality-control data. This report presents and discusses samples analyzed from July 1993 through June 1995. Quality-control results for 18 analytical procedures were evaluated for bias and precision. Control charts show that data from seven of the analytical procedures were biased throughout the analysis period for either high-concentration or low-concentration samples but were within control limits; these procedures were: acid-neutralizing capacity, dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon (soil expulsions), chloride, magnesium, nitrate (colorimetric method), and pH. Three of the analytical procedures were occasionally biased but were within control limits; they were: calcium (high for high-concentration samples for May 1995), dissolved organic carbon (high for highconcentration samples from January through September 1994), and fluoride (high in samples for April and June 1994). No quality-control sample has been developed for the organic monomeric aluminum procedure. Results from the filter-blank and analytical-blank analyses indicate that all analytical procedures in which blanks were run were within control limits, although values for a few blanks were outside the control limits. Blanks were not analyzed for acid-neutralizing capacity, dissolved inorganic carbon, fluoride, nitrate (colorimetric method), or pH. Sampling and analysis precision are evaluated herein in terms of the coefficient of variation obtained for triplicate samples in 14 of the 18 procedures. Data-quality objectives were met by more than 90 percent of the samples analyzed in all procedures except total monomeric aluminum (85 percent of samples met objectives), total aluminum (70 percent of samples met objectives), and dissolved organic carbon (85 percent of samples met objectives). Triplicate samples were not analyzed for ammonium, fluoride, dissolved inorganic carbon, or nitrate (colorimetric method). Results of the USGS interlaboratory Standard Reference Sample Program indicated high data quality with a median result of 3.6 of a possible 4.0. Environment Canada's LRTAP interlaboratory study results indicated that more than 85 percent of the samples met data-quality objectives in 6 of the 12 analyses; exceptions were calcium, dissolved organic carbon, chloride, pH, potassium, and sodium. Data-quality objectives were not met for calcium samples in one LRTAP study, but 94 percent of samples analyzed were within control limits for the remaining studies. Data-quality objectives were not met by 35 percent of samples analyzed for dissolved organic carbon, but 94 percent of sample values were within 20 percent of the most probable value. Data-quality objectives were not met for 30 percent of samples analyzed for chloride, but 90 percent of sample values were within 20 percent of the most probable value. Measurements of samples with a pH above 6.0 were biased high in 54 percent of the samples, although 85 percent of the samples met data-quality objectives for pH measurements below 6.0. Data-quality objectives for potassium and sodium were not met in one study (only 33 percent of the samples analyzed met the objectives), although 85 percent of the sample values were within control limits for the other studies. Measured sodium values were above the upper control limit in all studies. Results from blind reference-sample analyses indicated that data

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Enhanced microplastic fragmentation along human built structures in an urban waterway

Plastic pollution and microplastic (MP, 1 µm to 5 mm) generation are growing problems affecting the global community and a wide range of natural and disturbed environments. Urban and suburban waterways are directly impacted by plastic pollution due to their proximity to population centers and many different types single use plastic waste sources. In this study, plastic waste accumulation and fragmentation was investigated along the Cooper River in Camden County, NJ. Polymer composition was identified for individual plastic waste particles collected along the Cooper River using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry. Multiple human-built structures (Wallworth Lake, Evans Pond and Hopkins Pond dams) along the Cooper River were found to accumulate different types of plastic waste. The accumulation of plastic waste along these structures resulted in the initial stages of plastic fragmentation and the identification of large MP particles (1 to 5 mm). Quantitative analysis revealed that fragmented polystyrene (PS) particles constituted 82.8% of the total plastic fragments identified, most of which were identified at the Wallworth Lake dam. Many other types of fragmented plastic litter, including polyethylene and polypropylene, were identified at the Wallworth Lake dam, as well. This research demonstrates that engineered structures within urban and suburban aquatic ecosystems serve as significant aggregators of plastic debris, thereby catalyzing its breakdown into microplastics. Considering the escalating ecological and human health ramifications of microplastic proliferation, the fragmentation of plastic waste in an urban and suburban waterway observed in this study can also result in potentially toxic smaller MP particles, and increased exposure to aquatic organisms and humans.

New Jersey↗

USGS1991

Report of 1st discussion group: The last interglacial in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere: Terrestrial and marine evidence

The paleoclimatic informations preserved at some selected sites from high northern latitudes correlative with the last interglacial maximum of Isotopic Substage 5e have been compiled on a hemisphere scale. The mapped compilation reveals much warmer climate conditions on average than present in both terrestrial and marine environments, and indicates a northward shift of subpolar and boreal bioclimatic zones. The data also suggest that temperature and precipitation gradients were significantly different than those of the Holocene, with particularly efficient latitudinal and eastward transport of warm air masses. The paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate trends through the last interglacial sensu lato (Isotopic Stage 5) are more difficult to assess because the chronostratigraphical framework is poorly constrained. Nevertheless, the data suggest important regionalism in the climatostratigraphical trends. In particular, the large amplitude climatic cyclicity that characterizes the last interglacial of Europe is barely observed elsewhere. Moreover, by the end of the last interglacial (Isotopic Substage 5a), conditions slightly cooler than present are recorded in western Europe, while relatively warm conditions, similar to today, apparently prevailed in circumpolar regions adjacent to the North Atlantic despite the onset of ice growth. The last interglacial provides paleosynoptic situations, unlike those of the present, that may contribute to understanding interactions within the environmental system on a hemispheric scale. There is, however, an imperative need for uniformization of data sets and for more accurate chronological control on regional scales.

Quaternary International↗

USGS2005

Quality-assurance data for routine water analyses by the U.S. Geological Survey Laboratory in Troy, New York—July 1995 through June 1997

The laboratory for analysis of low-ionic-strength water at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) office in Troy, N.Y. analyzes samples collected by USGS projects in the Northeast. The laboratory’s quality-assurance program is based on internal and interlaboratory quality-assurance samples and quality-control procedures developed to ensure proper sample collection, processing, and analysis. For the time period addressed in this report, the quality-assurance/quality-control data were stored in the laboratory’s SAS data-management system, which provides efficient review, compilation, and plotting of quality-assurance/quality-control data. This report presents and discusses samples analyzed from July 1995 through June 1997. Quality-control results for 19 analytical procedures were evaluated for bias and precision. Control charts show that data from ten of the analytical procedures were biased throughout the analysis period for either high-concentration or low-concentration samples but were within control limits; these procedures were: acid-neutralizing capacity, total monomeric aluminum, ammonium, calcium, chloride, dissolved organic carbon, magnesium, nitrate (ion chromatography), nitrate (colorimetric method), and sulfate. Four of the analytical procedures were occasionally biased but were within control limits; they were: fluoride, pH, silicon, and sodium. Results from the filter-blank and analytical-blank analyses indicate that all analytical procedures in which blanks were run were within control limits, although values for a few blanks were outside the control limits. Sampling and analysis precision are evaluated herein in terms of the coefficient of variation obtained for triplicate samples in 14 of the 19 procedures. Data-quality objectives (DQO’s) were met by at least 92 percent of the samples analyzed in all procedures except acid neutralizing capacity (80 percent of samples met objectives), total monomeric aluminum (87 percent of samples met objectives), organic monomeric aluminum (89 percent of samples met objectives), and chloride (89 percent of samples met objectives). The data are insufficient to evaluate the DQO’s for total aluminum. Results of the USGS interlaboratory Standard Reference Sample Program indicated acceptable data quality for most constituents over the time period. The results of the P-sample (low-ionic strength constituent) analysis indicated high data quality with good ratings in all studies. The T-sample (trace constituent) had unacceptable ratings in two studies, but received satisfactory ratings in the others. The N-sample (nutrient constituent) studies had an unacceptable rating in one and an excellent rating in the other. Environment Canada’s NWRI program results indicated that at least 90 percent of the samples met data-quality objectives in 9 of the 12 analyses; exceptions were calcium, chloride, and silicon. Data-quality objectives were not met for calcium samples in two NWRI studies, but all of the samples analyzed were within control limits for the remaining studies. Data-quality objectives were not met for 32 percent of samples analyzed for chloride and 27 percent of samples analyzed for silicon. Results from blind reference-sample analyses indicated that data-quality objectives were met by at least 90 percent of the calcium, pH, potassium, and sodium samples. Data-quality objectives were met by 77 percent of the chloride samples, 83 percent of the magnesium samples, and 80 percent of the sulfate samples. There is insufficient data to evaluate the specific conductance samples.

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