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USGS2020

A latent process model approach to improve the utility of indicator species

The state of an ecosystem is governed by dynamic biotic and abiotic processes, which can only be partially observed. Costs associated with measuring each component limit the feasibility of comprehensive assessments of target ecosystems. Instead, indicator species are recommended as a surrogate index. While this is an attractive concept, indicator species have rarely proven to be an effective tool for monitoring ecosystems and informing management decisions. One deficiency in the existing theoretical development of indicator species may be overcome with the incorporation of latent (i.e. unobservable) states. Advancements in quantitative ecological models allow for latent‐state models to be tested empirically, facilitating the robust evaluation and practical use of indicator species for ecosystem science and management. Here, we extend the existing conceptual models of indicator species to include a direct relationship between an indicator species, ecosystem change drivers and latent processes and variables. Our approach includes explicit consideration of important estimation uncertainty and narrows the range of values a latent variable may take by relating it to measurable attribute(s) of an indicator species. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by relating a commonly cited indicator species, the red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus , to a typical latent process of interest – ecosystem health.

Oikos↗

USGS2025

Perfluorodecanesulfonate (PFDS) induces innate immune toxicity through the NF-κB pathway in early life stage zebrafish

Perfluorodecanesulfonate (PFDS), a long-chain polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS), is widely detected in aquatic environments and increasingly recognized for its environmental persistence and bioaccumulative potential; however, its immunotoxicity remains poorly understood in aquatic biota. In this study, early life stage zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of PFDS and PFOS for 120 h to better characterize the adverse effects of PFDS on aquatic organisms. Additionally, the toxicological differences between PFDS and PFOS at the same exposure concentrations were compared, as PFDS is a known substitute for PFOS. PFDS bioaccumulated in zebrafish larvae at environmentally relevant concentrations, which disrupted immune function by altering the number of macrophages and neutrophils, inducing oxidative stress, and dysregulating immune markers such as interleukins and immunoglobulins. Mechanistically, PFDS activated the nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) signaling pathway, driving pro-inflammatory cytokine expression and immune dysfunction. Furthermore, the use of a NF-κB morpholino knockdown confirmed the role of the NF-κB pathway in mediating PFDS-induced immunotoxicity. These findings provide the first comprehensive evidence of PFDS-induced immunotoxicity being mediated through NF-κB activation, offering novel insights into the ecological risks of long-chain perfluorosulfonic acids. Notably, PFDS exhibited a stronger immunotoxic response relative to PFOS, indicating that its adverse effects may be more severe. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for the ecological risk assessment of PFDS and the toxic potential that unregulated PFAS can have to aquatic systems.

Environment International↗

USGS2003

Using tree recruitment patterns and fire history to guide restoration of an unlogged ponderosa pine/Douglas‐fir landscape in the southern Rocky Mountains after a century of fire suppression

Tree age and fire history were studied in an unlogged ponderosa pine/Douglas‐fir ( Pinus ponderosa/Pseudotsuga menziesii ) landscape in the Colorado Front Range mountains. These data were analysed to understand tree survival during fire and post‐fire recruitment patterns after fire, as a basis for understanding the characteristics of, and restoration needs for, an ecologically sustainable landscape. Comparisons of two independent tree age data sets indicated that sampling what subjectively appear to be the five oldest trees in a forest polygon could identify the oldest tree. Comparisons of the ages of the oldest trees in each data set with maps of fire history suggested that delays in establishment of trees, after stand‐replacing fire, ranged from a few years to more than a century. These data indicate that variable fire severity, including patches of stand replacement, and variable temporal patterns of tree recruitment into openings after fire were major causes of spatial heterogeneity of patch structure in the landscape. These effects suggest that restoring current dense and homogeneous ponderosa pine forests to an ecologically sustainable and dynamic condition should reflect the roles of fires and variable patterns of tree recruitment in regulating landscape structure.

Forestry↗

USGS2025

Streamflow as a stressor: Disentangling hydrology and water quality impacts to characterize flow-ecology relationships for two stream assemblages across two southeastern landscapes

Disassociating the independent effects of flow and water quality on the ecology of flowing waters is an overarching goal in water resource science needed to improve the efficacy of watershed management. However, the interrelatedness of these gradients and their subsequent alteration due to land use change has constrained progress made on this front. The objective of this study was to use benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage data to characterize flow-ecology relationships that were unchanged by water quality impacts across two southeastern landscapes in the USA to help detect ecological change driven by flow alteration. General linear latent models were used to identify taxa that were responsive to high or low flow metrics and water quality gradients. Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models were then developed using these indicator taxa and three biological metrics to identify flow-specific relationships that were unaffected by water quality impacts. Three low flow-specific relationships were identified, illustrating how potential agricultural or urban impacts to hydrology reduced stream biological health. Importantly, flow-ecology relationships developed using indicator taxa in this study effectively captured hydrology-specific impacts while biological metrics typical of state monitoring and assessment programs did not. Therefore, developing flow-specific biological metrics is a critical step when developing management strategies targeting flow alteration. Implementing standardized frameworks such as the one characterized here can limit contradictory findings and improve streamflow enhancement and restoration project efficacy. These low flow-specific relationships will enhance managers' capacity to develop environmental flow standards, monitor their success, and better understand urban and agricultural impacts on stream assemblages.

Alabama↗

USGS1975

Blood analyses of wolf pups and their ecological and metabolic interpretation

Blood samples were obtained from 32 wolf ( Canis lupus ) pups live-trapped over a three-year period in northern Minnesota. The results of 21 laboratory analyses of hematology and blood chemistry are tabulated and analyzed in terms of study area, age, sex, and year of collection. Mean values are compared to those reported for dogs in the same age group. The numerous differences between dog and wolf pups are interpreted in terms of nutritional levels and dietary composition with the suggestion that the wolves are not achieving their full growth potential. Individual abnormal test results are tabulated and possible interpretations are suggested. Abnormal results were observed in 13 animals including 10 of 11 animals sampled in 1972. The results in the 1972 animals indicated a poorer nutrition. This preponderance of abnormal test results in pups from 1972 is correlated with ecological studies on this wolf population indicating decreased survival. The potential value of such long-term integrated field and laboratory studies for providing a more complete understanding of changes in the dynamics of natural populations in terms of the responses of individual animals is demonstrated.

Minnesota↗

USGS2007

Patch-occupancy models indicate human activity as major determinant of forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis seasonal distribution in an industrial corridor in Gabon

The importance of human activity and ecological features in influencing African forest elephant ranging behaviour was investigated in the Rabi-Ndogo corridor of the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in southwest Gabon. Locations in a wide geographical area with a range of environmental variables were selected for patch-occupancy surveys using elephant dung to assess seasonal presence and absence of elephants. Patch-occupancy procedures allowed for covariate modelling evaluating hypotheses for both occupancy in relation to human activity and ecological features, and detection probability in relation to vegetation density. The best fitting models for old and fresh dung data sets indicate that (1) detection probability for elephant dung is negatively related to the relative density of the vegetation, and (2) human activity, such as presence and infrastructure, are more closely associated with elephant distribution patterns than are ecological features, such as the presence of wetlands and preferred fresh fruit. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of elephants to human disturbance, in this case infrastructure development associated with gas and oil production. Patch-occupancy methodology offers a viable alternative to current transect protocols for monitoring programs with multiple covariates.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2015

Management applications of discontinuity theory

Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems. We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity. Synthesis and applications . We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2016

Large-scale recovery of an endangered amphibian despite ongoing exposure to multiple stressors

Amphibians are one of the most threatened animal groups, with 32% of species at risk for extinction. Given this imperiled status, is the disappearance of a large fraction of the Earth’s amphibians inevitable, or are some declining species more resilient than is generally assumed? We address this question in a species that is emblematic of many declining amphibians, the endangered Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog ( Rana sierrae ). Based on >7,000 frog surveys conducted across Yosemite National Park over a 20-y period, we show that, after decades of decline and despite ongoing exposure to multiple stressors, including introduced fish, the recently emerged disease chytridiomycosis, and pesticides, R. sierrae abundance increased sevenfold during the study and at a rate of 11% per year. These increases occurred in hundreds of populations throughout Yosemite, providing a rare example of amphibian recovery at an ecologically relevant spatial scale. Results from a laboratory experiment indicate that these increases may be in part because of reduced frog susceptibility to chytridiomycosis. The disappearance of nonnative fish from numerous water bodies after cessation of stocking also contributed to the recovery. The large-scale increases in R. sierrae abundance that we document suggest that, when habitats are relatively intact and stressors are reduced in their importance by active management or species’ adaptive responses, declines of some amphibians may be partially reversible, at least at a regional scale. Other studies conducted over similarly large temporal and spatial scales are critically needed to provide insight and generality about the reversibility of amphibian declines at a global scale.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2010

Susceptibility of three stocks of pacific herring to viral hemorrhagic septicemia

Laboratory challenges using specific-pathogen-free Pacific herring Clupea pallasii from three distinct populations indicated that stock origin had no effect on susceptibility to viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS). All of the populations were highly susceptible to the disease upon initial exposure, with significantly greater cumulative mortalities occurring in the exposed treatment groups (56.3-64.3%) than in the unexposed control groups (0.8-9.0%). Interstock differences in cumulative mortality were not significant. The virus loads in the tissues of fish experiencing mortality were 10-10,000 times higher during the acute phase of the epizootics (day 13 postexposure) than during the recovery phase (days 30-42). Survivors of the epizootics were refractory to subsequent VHS, with reexposure of VHS survivors resulting in significantly less cumulative mortality (1.2-4.0%) than among positive controls (38.1-64.4%); interstock differences in susceptibility did not occur after reexposure. These results indicate that data from experiments designed to understand the ecology of VHS virus in a given stock of Pacific herring are broadly applicable to stocks throughout the northeastern Pacific.

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health↗

USGS1999

Nest-site selection in the acorn woodpecker

Acorn Woodpeckers ( Melanerpes formicivorus ) at Hastings Reservation in central California prefer to nest in dead limbs in large, dead valley oaks ( Quercus lobata ) and California sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) that are also frequently used as acorn storage trees. Based on 232 nest cavities used over an 18-year period, we tested whether preferred or modal nest-site characters were associated with increased reproductive success (the "nest-site quality" hypothesis). We also examined whether more successful nests were likely to experience more favorable microclimatic conditions or to be less accessible to terrestrial predators. We found only equivocal support for the nest-site quality hypothesis: only 1 of 5 preferred characters and 2 of 10 characters exhibiting a clear modality were correlated with higher reproductive success. All three characteristics of nests known or likely to be associated with a more favorable microclimate, and two of five characteristics likely to render nests less accessible to predators, were correlated with higher reproductive success. These results suggest that nest cavities in this population are built in part to take advantage of favorable microclimatic conditions and, to a lesser extent, to reduce access to predators. However, despite benefits of particular nest characteristics, birds frequently nested in apparently suboptimal cavities. We also found a significant relationship between mean group size and the history of occupancy of particular territories and the probability of nest cavities being built in microclimatically favorable live limbs, suggesting that larger groups residing on more stable territories were better able to construct nests with optimal characteristics. This indicates that there may be demographic, as well as ecological, constraints on nest-site selection in this primary cavity nester.

The Auk↗

USGS1976

Distribution of seed plants with respect to tide levels and water salinity in the natural tidal marshes of the northern San Francisco Bay Estuary, California

Shoaling of subtidal and intertidal mud flats has permitted tidal marshes to spread across large marginal areas of the San Francisco Bay estuary during the past several thousand years. By 1850 A.D. the tidal marshes of the estuary, including those of the Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta, covered an area nearly twice as large as the area of open water. Nearly 95 percent of these marshes have been diked or filled during the past 125 years. Species distributions along leveled transects at six tidal marshes indicate that elevation and water salinity are the principal ecological factors that-control the distribution of seed plants in the remaining natural tidal marshes of the northern San Francisco Bay estuary. Marsh surfaces situated near mean tide level are populated by robust monocotyledons (e.g., Spartina foliosa, Scirpus californicus), whereas surfaces situated near high-tide levels support dicotyledons and a few small monocotyledonous species (e.g., Salicornia virginica, Distichlis spicata). Marshes near the seaward end of the estuary are typically occupied by 10-15 salt-tolerant species (e.g., Spartina foliosa, Salicornia virginica), whereas marshes at the riverward end of the estuary are inhabited by as many as 30 species, most of which are known to tolerate moderate or small amounts of salt (e.g., Scirpus spp., Phragmites communis, Typha latifolia).

California↗

USGS1964

Foraminifera from the Northern Olympic Peninsula, Washington

Foraminifera from a Tertiary sequence that crops out on the northern part of the Olympic Peninsula, Wash., show stratigraphic and ecologic significance. Forty-two species that are important both to correlations and to ecologic interpretations are illustrated and systematically discussed. The Foraminifera indicate that some of the rocks may be as old as early Eocene. The oldest rocks are tentatively referred to the Penutian stage of Mallory. Other parts of the sequence are referred to the Ulatisian and Narizian stages of Mallory, the Refugian stage of Schenck and Kieinpell, and the Zemorrian and Saucesian stages of Kleinpell. Several short periods of shallow, sheltered sea conditions are suggested by the Foraminifera from several parts of the stratigraphic sequence, but Foraminifera from most of the rocks suggest relatively deep, open-sea conditions. With the exception of shallow, warm-water conditions in rocks of probable middle Eocene age, the Foraminifera suggest that cool-to-cold water temperatures, regardless of depth, prevailed during the deposition of most of the rocks of Tertiary age in the northern Olympic Peninsula.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2010

Development of an Environmental Flow Framework for the McKenzie River Basin, Oregon

The McKenzie River is a tributary to the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon. The McKenzie River is approximately 90 miles in length and has a drainage area of approximately 1,300 square miles. Two major flood control dams, a hydropower dam complex, and two hydropower canals significantly alter streamflows in the river. The structures reduce the magnitude and frequency of large and small floods while increasing the annual 7-day minimum streamflows. Stream temperatures also have been altered by the dams and other anthropogenic factors, such as the removal of riparian vegetation and channel simplification. Flow releases from one of the flood control dams are cooler in the summer and warmer in the fall in comparison to unregulated flow conditions before the dam was constructed. In 2006, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality listed a total of 112.4, 6.3, and 55.7 miles of the McKenzie River basin mainstem and tributary stream reaches as thermally impaired for salmonid rearing, salmonid spawning, and bull trout, respectively. The analyses in this report, along with previous studies, indicate that dams have altered downstream channel morphology and ecologic communities. In addition to reducing the magnitude and frequency of floods, dams have diminished sediment transport by trapping bed material. Other anthropogenic factors, such as bank stabilization, highway construction, and reductions of in-channel wood, also have contributed to the loss of riparian habitat. A comparison of aerial photography taken in 1939 and 2005 showed substantial decreases in secondary channels, gravel bars, and channel sinuosity, particularly along the lower alluvial reaches of the McKenzie River. In addition, bed armoring and incision may contribute to habitat degradation, although further study is needed to determine the extent of these processes. Peak streamflow reduction has led to vegetation colonization and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces. The large flood control dams on Blue River and South Fork McKenzie River likely have had the greatest effect on downstream habitats because these sediment and flood-rich tributaries historically contributed a disproportionate volume of bed material, wood, and peak flows in comparison with the spring-fed tributaries of the upper McKenzie River basin. The ecological effects of the dams were examined by focusing on nine exemplar aquatic and terrestrial species, including spring Chinook salmon, bull trout, Oregon chub, Pacific and western brook lamprey, red-legged frog, western pond turtle, alder, and cottonwood. The changes caused by the dams to streamflow hydrograph affect all these and other species in complex ways, although a few commonalities are apparent. A loss of channel complexity in the McKenzie River basin, which is associated with the reduction in flood events and widespread channel stabilization, is the primary factor related to the observed population declines for all nine exemplar species. The dams also have caused direct ecological effects by blocking access to habitat, changing the amount and timing of available critical habitat, and changing water temperature during important seasons for different life stages.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from aquifers in Ocean County and vicinity, New Jersey

Rapid population growth since the 1930s in Ocean County and vicinity, New Jersey, has placed increasing demands upon the area’s freshwater resources. To examine effects of groundwater withdrawals, a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow systems of five area aquifers: the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and Vincentown aquifer, and three confined aquifers— the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Piney Point aquifer. The influence of withdrawals is evaluated by using transient groundwater-flow model simulations that incorporate three withdrawal schemes. These are (1) no-withdrawal conditions; (2) 2000–03 withdrawal conditions, using reported monthly withdrawals at all production wells from January 2000 through December 2003; and (3) maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions using the maximum withdrawal allowed by New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection permits at each well. Particle tracking analysis, using results from model simulations, delineated particle flow paths from production wells to the point of recharge, and estimated particle travel times. Compared with no-withdrawal conditions, 2000–03 withdrawal conditions reduced the amount of groundwater flow out of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system into streams, increased the net flow of water into other layers, reduced net flow into or out of storage, and reduced flow from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system to constant head cells. Freshwater discharging to the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor estuary from streams and groundwater is essential to maintaining the ecology of the bay. Examination of selected stress periods indicates that simulated base flow in streams flowing into the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor estuary is reduced by as much as 49 cubic feet per second for 2000 to 2003 withdrawal conditions when compared with no-withdrawal conditions. In the three confined aquifers, water levels during periods of low recharge and high withdrawals, and high recharge and low withdrawals, were examined to determine seasonal effects on the confined flow systems. The simulated potentiometric surface of the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand during selected stress periods indicates substantial declines from no-withdrawal conditions to 2000–03 conditions as a result of groundwater withdrawals. Cones of depression in Toms River Township, Seaside Heights and Seaside Park Boroughs, and Barnegat Light Borough developed in the potentiometric surface of the Piney Point aquifer in response to withdrawals. Maximum-allocation withdrawals decreased flow out of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system to constant head cells, increased flow out of the aquifer system to adjacent and lower layers, and reduced groundwater discharge to streams when compared with 2000–03 withdrawal conditions. Increases in withdrawals from the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Piney Point aquifer result in an increase in simulated net groundwater flow into these aquifers. Base-flow reduction from 2000–03 conditions to maximum-allocation conditions of 25 to 29 cubic feet per second in all streams draining to the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor also is indicated. Potentiometric surfaces of the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Piney Point aquifer during two stress periods of simulated maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions indicated the expansion of several cones of depression developed during 2000–03 withdrawals. Simulation of average 2000–03 withdrawal conditions indicated the extent to which the groundwater-flow system is susceptible to potential saltwater intrusion into near-shore wells. Travel time from recharge to discharge location ranged from 11 to approximately 50,700 years in near-shore Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system wells. Those in Seaside Heights Borough, in Island Beach State Park (Berkeley Township), and in Ship Bottom Borough have particle travel times from 140 to 12,000 years and flow paths that originated under Barnegat Bay or the Atlantic Ocean from the simulation of average maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions. Travel time along flow paths to wells screened in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand from recharge to discharge point ranged from nearly 530 years to greater than 3.73 million years from the simulation of average 2000–03 withdrawal conditions. Particle tracking indicated that most wells screened in these aquifers derived a large part of their recharge from the Oswego River Basin, with a small portion of flow originating either beneath Barnegat Bay or to the east beneath the Atlantic Ocean. Travel time along flow paths that start beneath either Barnegat Bay or the Atlantic Ocean ranged from 2,300 to approximately 134,000 years from the simulation of average maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions."

New Jersey↗

USGS2017

Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator ( R 2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI ( R 2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study demonstrates the importance of matching the scale of NDVI measurements to the vegetation properties of biomass and nitrogen phenology.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Negative frequency-dependent foraging behaviour in a generalist herbivore (Alces alces) and its stabilizing influence on food-web dynamics

1. Resource selection is widely appreciated to be context‐dependent and shaped by both biological and abiotic factors. However, few studies have empirically assessed the extent to which selective foraging behaviour is dynamic and varies in response to environmental conditions for free‐ranging animal populations. 2. Here, we assessed the extent that forage selection fluctuated in response to different environmental conditions for a free‐ranging herbivore, moose (Alces alces), in Isle Royale National Park, over a 10‐year period. More precisely, we assessed how moose selection for coniferous versus deciduous forage in winter varied between geographic regions and in relation to (a) the relative frequency of forage types in the environment (e.g. frequency‐dependent foraging behaviour), (b) moose abundance, (c) predation rate (by grey wolves) and (d) snow depth. These factors are potentially important for their influence on the energetics of foraging. We also built a series of food‐chain models to assess the influence of dynamic foraging strategies on the stability of food webs. 3. Our analysis indicates that moose exhibited negative frequency dependence, by selectively exploiting rare resources. Frequency‐dependent foraging was further mediated by density‐dependent processes, which are likely to be predation, moose abundance or some combination of both. In particular, frequency dependence was weaker in years when predation risk was high (i.e. when the ratio of moose to wolves was relatively low). Selection for conifers was also slightly weaker during deep snow years. 4. The food‐chain analysis indicates that the type of frequency‐dependent foraging strategy exhibited by herbivores had important consequences for the stability of ecological communities. In particular, the dynamic foraging strategy that we observed in the empirical analysis (i.e. negative frequency dependence being mediated by density‐dependent processes) was associated with more stable food web dynamics compared to fixed foraging strategies. 5. The results of this study indicated that forage selection is a complex ecological process, varying in response to both biological (predation and moose density) and abiotic factors (snow depth) and over relatively small spatial scales (between regions). This study also provides a useful framework for assessing the influence of other aspects of foraging behaviour on the stability of food web dynamics.

Michigan↗

USGS2012

Limnology of the Green Lakes Valley: Phytoplankton ecology and dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry at a long-term ecological research site

Background : Surface waters are the lowest points in the landscape, and therefore serve as excellent integrators and indicators of changes taking place in the surrounding terrestrial and atmospheric environment. Aims : Here we synthesise the findings of limnological studies conducted during the past 15 years in streams and lakes in the Green Lakes Valley, which is part of the Niwot Ridge Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Site. Methods : The importance of these studies is discussed in the context of aquatic ecosystems as indicators, integrators, and regulators of environmental change. Specifically, investigations into climatic, hydrologic, and nutrient controls on present-day phytoplankton, and historical diatom, community composition in the alpine lake, Green Lake 4, are reviewed. In addition, studies of spatial and temporal patterns in dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry and reactive transport modelling that have taken place in the Green Lakes Valley are highlighted. Results and conclusions : The findings of these studies identify specific shifts in algal community composition and DOM biogeochemistry that are indicative of changing environmental conditions and provide a framework for detecting future environmental change in the Green Lakes Valley and in other alpine watersheds. Moreover, the studies summarised here demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring programmes such as the LTER programme.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

Quantifying post-fire live tree presence and spatial variation using Sentinel-2 time series

Accurate mapping of post-fire surviving trees is important for tracking forest recovery and prioritizing land management decisions. Satellite-based remote sensing is an effective method to assess post-fire forest conditions. Traditionally, differenced satellite-derived burn severity indices are computed by differencing one year pre- and post-fire spectral reflectance values. Differenced burn severity indices are useful for quantifying and mapping the magnitude of ecological change, but their application to detecting and mapping post-fire live trees may not be as appropriate, particularly for delayed tree mortality. Delayed tree mortality (“delayed mortality”) is a phenomenon where trees that initially survive fire then die over an extended period (between one and five years), and it can be challenging to measure and predict. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of mapping delayed mortality using readily available remotely sensed imagery alone. We used random forest models to detect post-fire live trees using 10-m resolution Sentinel-2 data at one-, three-, and five-years post-fire for four fires in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Using imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP; 60-cm resolution), we manually classified live tree presence in 6000 Sentinel-2 pixels (500 pixels for each fire-year combination) to calibrate and validate models. Sentinel-2 based model accuracies ranged from 65 % to 86 % with F-scores ranging from 0.52 to 0.86, and their predictions of live pixel area were on average 44 % lower than inferred from more traditional indices such as relative differenced normalized burn ratio (RdNBR). This work represents a promising first step in using freely available post-fire spectral reflectance imagery to detect live trees over an extended period to support post-fire management.

California↗