Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Statistical Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources

Energy-rich mesopelagic fishes revealed as a critical prey resource for a deep-diving predator using quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

Understanding the diet of deep-diving predators can provide essential insight to the trophic structure of the mesopelagic ecosystem. Comprehensive population-level diet estimates are exceptionally difficult to obtain for elusive marine predators due to the logistical challenges involved in observing their feeding behavior and collecting samples for traditional stomach content or fecal analyses. We used quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) to estimate the diet composition of a wide-ranging mesopelagic predator, the northern elephant seal ( Mirounga angustirostris ), across five years. To implement QFASA, we first compiled a library of prey fatty acid (FA) profiles from the mesopelagic eastern North Pacific. Given the scarcity of a priori diet data for northern elephant seals, our prey library was necessarily large to encompass the range of potential prey in their foraging habitat. However, statistical constraints limit the number of prey species that can be included in the prey library to the number of dietary FAs in the analysis. Exceeding that limit could produce non-unique diet estimates (i.e., multiple diet estimates fit the data equally well). Consequently, we developed a novel ad-hoc method to identify which prey were unlikely to contribute to diet and could, therefore, be excluded from the final QFASA model. The model results suggest that seals predominantly consumed small mesopelagic fishes, including myctophids (lanternfishes) and bathylagids (deep sea smelts), while non-migrating mesopelagic squids comprised a third of their diet, substantially less than suggested by previous studies. Our results revealed that mesopelagic fishes, particularly energy-rich myctophids, were a critical prey resource, refuting the long-held view that elephant seals are squid specialists.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Combining models of the critical streakline and the cross-sectional distribution of juvenile salmon to predict fish routing at river junctions

Because fish that enter the interior Delta have poorer survival than those emigrating via the Sacramento River, understanding the mechanisms that drive entrainment rates at side channel junctions is critically important for the management of imperiled juvenile salmon. Here, we implement a previously proposed process-based conceptual model to study entrainment rates based on three linked elements: the entrainment zone, critical streakline, and cross-sectional distribution of fish. The critical streakline is the location along a channel cross-section immediately upstream of a junction that forms the spatial divide between parcels of water that enter a side channel or remain in the main channel. The critical streakline therefore divides the main channel into entrainment zones within which fish would likely enter each channel. Combined with information about the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of a junction, this conceptual model provides a means to predict fish entrainment into each channel. To apply this conceptual model, we combined statistical models of the critical streakline, the cross-sectional distribution of acoustic tagged juvenile Chinook salmon, and their probability of entrainment into Georgiana Slough. We fit joint beta regression and logistic regression models to acoustic telemetry data gathered in 2011 and 2012 to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of fish upstream of the junction, and to estimate the probability of entrainment for fish on either side of the critical streakline. We show that entrainment rates can be predicted by understanding how the combination of critical streakline position and cross-sectional distribution of fish co-vary as a function of environmental covariates. By integrating over individual positions and entrainment fates to arrive at population-level entrain probability in relation to environmental covariates, our model offers managers a simple but powerful tool to evaluate how alternative actions affect migrating fish.

California

Stratification of a cityscape using census and land use variables for inventory of building materials

A cityscape (or any landscape) can be stratified into environmental units using multiple variables of information. For the purposes of sampling building materials, census and land use variables were used to identify similar strata. In the Metropolitan Statistical Area of a cityscape, the census tract is the smallest unit for which census data are summarized and digitized boundaries are available. For purposes of this analysis, census data on total population, total number of housing units, and number of singleunit dwellings were aggregated into variables of persons per square kilometer and proportion of housing units in single-unit dwellings. The level 2 categories of the U.S. Geological Survey's land use and land cover data base were aggregated into variables of proportion of residential land with buildings, proportion of nonresidential land with buildings, and proportion of open land. The cityscape was stratified, from these variables, into environmental strata of Urban Central Business District, Urban Livelihood Industrial Commercial, Urban Multi-Family Residential, Urban Single Family Residential, Non-Urban Suburbanizing, and Non-Urban Rural. The New England region was chosen as a region with commonality of building materials, and a procedure developed for trial classification of census tracts into one of the strata. Final stratification was performed by discriminant analysis using the trial classification and prior probabilities as weights. The procedure was applied to several cities, and the results analyzed by correlation analysis from a field sample of building materials. The methodology developed for stratification of a cityscape using multiple variables has application to many other types of environmental studies, including forest inventory, hydrologic unit management, waste disposal, transportation studies, and other urban studies. Multivariate analysis techniques have recently been used for urban stratification in England. ?? 1987 Annals of Regional Science.

The Annals of Regional Science

The statistics and kinematics of transverse sand bars on an open coast

Ten years (1987-1996) of time exposure video images of the nearshore region at Duck, NC were used to study transverse sand bars, bathymetric features of intermediate length scales (10-200 m) oriented oblique or perpendicular to the shoreline. These transverse sand bars extend seaward from both the shoreline (trough transverse bars) and the shore-parallel sand bar (offshore transverse bars). Transverse bars had not previously been observed in an energetic Coastal environment such as that at Duck, and their dynamics and role in nearshore processes is unknown. Frequency of occurrence statistics and length scales of the transverse bars were calculated using the video images. Trough and offshore transverse bars appeared a mean of 39 and 73 days per year, respectively. The offshore bars were found to be much larger features than the trough bars, with mean wavelengths (alongshore spacing between consecutive crests) of 79 and 172 m for trough and offshore bars, respectively. Both the trough and offshore bars were found to persist for periods of days to months. The alongshore movement of the bars was measured and compared to estimates of surf zone longshore currents which were calculated from wave height and wave angle data. Both sets of bars were observed to move at rates up to 40 m/day. At times, both trough and offshore bars were observed shifting in the same direction as the current was flowing, and at other times, both sets of bars remained stationary, even under relatively strong longshore currents. Trough bars were also observed moving against the current. An hypothesis, proposed by Barcilon and Lau (1973) [J. Geophys. Res. 78(15): 2656-2664], that the transverse bars were created as a sea bed instability under longshore currents, was tested by comparing the magnitude of estimated surf zone longshore currents with times of formation or presence of transverse bars. There was no evidence to suggest that the bars were formed by this simple longshore current instability mechanism. Instead, it is plausible that the combined effects of waves and currents may drive the formation of these features. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Marine Geology

Decadal-scale export of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment from the Susquehanna River basin, USA: Analysis and synthesis of temporal and spatial patterns

The export of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) is a long-standing management concern for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of nutrient and sediment loads over the last three decades at multiple locations in the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), Chesapeake's largest tributary watershed. Sediment and nutrient riverine loadings, including both dissolved and particulate fractions, have generally declined at all sites upstream of Conowingo Dam (non-tidal SRB outlet). Period-of-record declines in riverine yield are generally smaller than those in source input, suggesting the possibility of legacy contributions. Consistent with other watershed studies, these results reinforce the importance of considering lag time between the implementation of management actions and achievement of river quality improvement. Whereas flow-normalized loadings for particulate species have increased recently below Conowingo Reservoir, those for upstream sites have declined, thus substantiating conclusions from prior studies about decreased reservoir trapping efficiency. In regard to streamflow effects, statistically significant log-linear relationships between annual streamflow and annual constituent load suggest the dominance of hydrological control on the inter-annual variability of constituent export. Concentration-discharge relationships revealed general chemostasis and mobilization effects for dissolved and particulate species, respectively, both suggesting transport-limitation conditions. In addition to affecting annual export rates, streamflow has also modulated the relative importance of dissolved and particulate fractions, as reflected by its negative correlations with dissolved P/total P, dissolved N/total N, particulate P/SS, and total N/total P ratios. For land-use effects, period-of-record median annual yields of N, P, and SS all correlate positively with the area fraction of non-forested land but negatively with that of forested land under all hydrological conditions. Overall, this work has informed understanding with respect to four major factors affecting constituent export ( i.e. , source input, reservoir modulation, streamflow, and land use) and demonstrated the value of long-term river monitoring.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania

Relation between road-salt application and increasing radium concentrations in a low-pH aquifer, southern New Jersey

The Kirkwood–Cohansey aquifer in southern New Jersey is an important source of drinking-water supplies, but the availability of the resource is limited in some areas by high concentrations of radium, a potential carcinogen at elevated concentrations. Radium ( 226 Ra plus 228 Ra) concentrations from a network of 25 drinking-water wells showed a statistically significant increase over a decadal time scale ( p < 0.05), with a median increase of 0.35 picocuries per liter. Increases in Ra are correlated with road-salt application rates, and we hypothesize that the correlation is causal. Geochemical processes associated with road-salt applications that can mobilize Ra into solution include competition by excess sodium for sorption sites and formation of chloride complexes (RaCl + and RaCl 2 ). The largest increases in Ra were in groundwater with low pH (≤5), which is an indirect surrogate for low cation-sorption capacity. Correlations with other potential anthropogenic causes for the increase in Ra were not observed, further suggesting a road-salt effect. Given the significant increase in Ra concentrations in this drinking-water source, the known carcinogenic risks from Ra, the direct link to road-salt application, and the likelihood for continued increases, additional monitoring is necessary in areas with similar hydrogeologic and geochemical settings.

New Jersey

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water model, version 2

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that generate daily water-level and water-depth data, and applications that compute derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the greater Everglades landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN in order for EDEN to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The EDEN surface-water model, version 2 (V2), interpolates water-level data from a network of 240 gages to generate gridded daily water-level surfaces for the freshwater domain of the Everglades. When these spatiotemporal continuous surfaces are combined with EDEN&rsquo;s digital elevation model of ground surface, derived hydrologic data provide scientists and water managers working in the Everglades with data necessary to analyze ecological and biotic responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. Derived datasets include water depth, recession rates, days since last dry, water-surface slopes, and hydroperiod. The V2 model includes enhancements from the previous model (version 1; V1) to accommodate changes in the water-level gage network, adjustments to water-level data, improved understanding of the flow dynamics (particularly near canals), and installation of an elevation benchmark network. Enhancements to the V2 model included Expansion of the EDEN domain: The model domain was expanded to include a part of southern Big Cypress National Preserve and northwestern Everglades National Park upstream of the marsh mangrove wetlands, thus completing the coastal connection along the southwestern boundary of the model; and Development of subdomain models: To account for insufficient water-control structure gage data at some subbasin boundaries, subdomain models were developed for five subdomains, and the resulting water-level surfaces were merged to generate the final water-level surface. Model performance statistics show a general improvement in the V2 model as compared to the V1 model. Overall, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was reduced by 2.42 centimeters (cm) to 4.68 cm. In Water Conservation Area 3A North and Water Conservation Area 3B, the RMSE was reduced by 10.88 and 9.15 cm, respectively. In addition to evaluating model performance statistics, 2-cm water-level maps were generated and evaluated for irregular contours that would indicate a potential problem either with data input or water-level estimates. Three applications of the EDEN-modeled water surfaces and other EDEN datasets are presented in the report to show how scientists and resource managers are using EDEN datasets to analyze biological and ecological responses to hydrologic changes in the Everglades. The biological responses of two important Everglades species, alligators and wading birds, to changes in hydrology are described. The effects of hydrology on fire dynamics in the Everglades are also discussed.

Florida

Data-limited fishery assessment methods shed light on the exploitation history and population dynamics of Endangered Species Act-listed Yelloweye Rockfish in Puget Sound, Washington

Objective The distinct population segment (DPS) of Yelloweye Rockfish Sebastes ruberrimus inhabiting the Puget Sound/Georgia Basin was listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2010, and a formal recovery plan for the DPS was published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries in 2017. In this recovery plan, the biological criteria for delisting or downlisting were specified as certain levels of spawning potential ratio (SPR), a commonly used metric of equilibrium stock status for commercially exploited fishes. Although this metric can be estimated from length compositions, the combination of length data with a catch history (which was not previously available for this DPS) improves our understanding of population dynamics over time and allows us to estimate a different measure of stock status, relative (to unfished) spawning stock biomass (SSB), rather than only SPR. Methods To estimate relative SSB and reconstruct the historical dynamics of this DPS, we reconstructed the catch history from fisheries records, collated length data from historical and contemporary hook-and-line surveys, and fitted a data-limited version of a statistical catch-at-age model. Result Despite a high level of uncertainty, we estimated that Yelloweye Rockfish in Puget Sound are above 25% of unfished biomass (a reference point detailed in the recovery criteria) under the assumption of deterministic recruitment, presenting the first direct estimates of Yelloweye Rockfish population status in Puget Sound. Conclusion However, as informed by recent genetic studies, the DPS boundaries of ESA-listed Yelloweye Rockfish extend from South Puget Sound to Queen Charlotte Strait in British Columbia. The Canadian portion of this population is managed separately and is currently estimated to be at 32% of unfished biomass (95% quantiles = 15%–68%). Thus, the disjunction between the biological boundaries of the population and the jurisdictional boundaries between Canada and the United States presents an additional source of uncertainty in assessing recovery that must be addressed to achieve DPS-wide recovery goals.

Washington

Survey of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizae in lettuce production in relation to management and soil factors

The occurrence of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizae (VAM) root colonization and spore number in soil was assessed for 18 fields under intensive lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) production in California during July and August of 1995. Data on management practices and soil characteristics were compiled for each field, and included a wide range of conditions. The relationship between these factors and the occurrence of VAM in these fields was explored with multivariate statistical analysis. VAM colonization of lettuce tended to decrease with the use of chemical inputs, such as pesticides and high amounts of P and N fertilizers. Addition of soil organic matter amendments, the occurrence of other host crops in the rotation, and soil carbon:phosphorus and carbon:nitrogen ratios, were positively associated with VAM colonization of lettuce roots. The number of VAM spores in soil was strongly correlated with the number of other host crops in the rotation, the occurrence of weed hosts and sampling date, but was more affected by general soil conditions than by management inputs. Higher total soil N, C and P, as well as CEC, were inversely related to soil spore number. A glasshouse study of the two primary lettuce types sampled in the field showed no significant differences in the extent of root colonization under similar growing conditions. The results of this study are compared with other studies on the effects of management and soil conditions on mycorrhizal occurrence in agriculture.

Journal of Agricultural Science

Platinum group elements and gold in ferromanganese crusts from Afanasiy-Nikitin seamount, equatorial Indian Ocean: Sources and fractionation

The major element relationships in ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crusts from Afanasiy-Nikitin seamount (ANS), eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, appear to be atypical. High positive correlations ( r = 0.99) between Mn/Co and Fe/Co ratios, and lack of correlation of those ratios with Co, Ce, and Ce/Co, indicate that the ANS Fe-Mn crusts are distinct from Pacific seamount Fe-Mn crusts, and reflect region-specific chemical characteristics. The platinum group elements (PGE: Ir, Ru, Rh, Pt, and Pd) and Au in ANS Fe-Mn crusts are derived from seawater and are mainly of terrestrial origin, with a minor cosmogenic component. The Ru/Rh (0.5–2) and Pt/Ru ratios (7–28) are closely comparable to ratios in continental basalts, whereas Pd/Ir ratios exhibit values (<2) similar to CI-chondrite (∼1). The chondrite-normalized PGE patterns are similar to those of igneous rocks, except that Pd is relatively depleted. The water depth of Fe-Mn crust formation appears to have a first-order control on both major element and PGE enrichments. These relationships are defined statistically by significant ( r > 0.75) correlations between water depth and Mn/Co, Fe/Co, Ce/Co, Co, and the PGEs. Fractionation of the PGE-Au from seawater during colloidal precipitation of the major-oxide phases is indicated by well-defined linear positive correlations ( r > 0.8) of Co and Ce with Ir, Ru, Rh, and Pt; Au/Co with Mn/Co; and by weak or no correlations of Pd with water depth, Co-normalized major-element ratios, and with the other PGE ( r < 0.5). The strong enrichment of Pt (up to 1 ppm) relative to the other PGE and its positive correlations with Ce and Co demonstrate a common link for the high concentrations of all three elements, which likely involves an oxidation reaction on the Mn-oxide and Fe-oxyhydroxide surfaces. The documented fractionation of PGE-Au and their positive association with redox sensitive Co and Ce may have applications in reconstructing past-ocean redox conditions and water masses.

Journal of Earth System Science

Considerations of variability and power for long-term monitoring of stream fish assemblages

Little attention has been given to optimizing statistical power for monitoring stream fish assemblages. We explored the relationship between temporal variability and statistical power using 34 metrics from fish community data collected annually at six sites over 10 years via electrofishing. Metric variability differed by the life stage and group of species considered, use of abundance or mass data, and data standardization technique. Lower variability was associated with community data, abundance data, and time-based standardizations, while greater variability was associated with young-of-the-year data, mass data, and area-based standardizations. Simulation-based power analysis indicated metric choice, and to a lesser degree, monitoring design (annual, biennial, endpoints, or haphazard sampling) influenced power to detect change. Across a fixed number of surveys (N = 60), endpoints sampling performed best. The N needed to detect change was heavily dependent upon metric choice for all monitoring designs, with the most biologically specific metrics requiring greater N. Large savings in effort and resource expenditure can be obtained utilizing biologically relevant metrics that are robust to temporal noise within an appropriate sampling design.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Occurrence of pesticides in shallow groundwater of the United States: initial results from the National Water-Quality Assessment program

The first phase of intensive data collection for the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) was completed during 1993&minus;1995 in 20 major hydrologic basins of the United States. Groundwater land-use studies, designed to sample recently recharged groundwater (generally within 10 years) beneath specific land-use and hydrogeologic settings, are a major component of the groundwater quality as sessment for NAWQA. Pesticide results from the 41 land-use studies conducted during 1993&minus;1995 indicate that pesticides were commonly detected in shallow groundwater, having been found at 54.4% of the 1034 sites sampled in agricultural and urban settings across the United States. Pesticide concentrations were generally low, with over 95% of the detections at concentrations less than 1 &mu;g/L. Of the 46 pesticide compounds examined, 39 were detected. The compounds detected most frequently were atrazine (38.2%), deethylatrazine (34.2%), simazine (18.0%), metolachlor (14.6%), and prometon (13.9%). Statistically significant relations were observed between frequencies of detection and the use, mobility, and persistence of these compounds. Pesticides were commonly detected in both agricultural (56.4%; 813 sites) and urban (46.6%; 221 sites) settings. Frequent detections of pesticides in urban areas indicate that, as is the case with agricultural pesticide use in agricultural areas, urban and suburban pesticide use significantly contribute to pesticide occurrence in shallow groundwater. Although pesticides were detected in groundwater sampled in urban areas and all nine of the agricultural land-use categories examined, significant variations in occurrence were observed among these categories. Maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water were exceeded for only one pesticide (atrazine, 3 &mu;g/L) at a single location. However, MCLs have been established for only 25 of the 46 pesticide compounds examined, do not cover pesticide degradates, and, at present, do not take into account additive or synergistic effects of combinations of pesticide compounds or potential effects on nearby aquatic ecosystems.

Environmental Science & Technology

Short-term effects of ambient air pollution and cardiovascular events in Shiraz, Iran, 2009 to 2015

Air pollution and dust storms are associated with increased cardiovascular hospital admissions. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollutants and CVD (cardiovascular disease) events in a long-term observational period. The study included the events of cardiovascular diseases (namely coronary artery disease, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, and pneumo thrombo embolism) within the population of Shiraz, from March 21, 2009 to March 20, 2015. Also, each patient’s demographics were recorded. Main meteorological variables and five ambient pollutants (CO, O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and PM 10 ) were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using linear regression (GLM) and a generalized additive model (GAM) estimating Poisson distribution and adjusted for the main risk factors and ambient meteorological variables. A mild prevalence (51.5%) of coronary artery disease (CAD) was registered in 6425 events. In GLM analysis, we observed an association among the pollutants with the coronary artery disease hospital admissions which was in the order of CO, NO 2 , and PM 10 . The highest association of each pollutant with hospital admission was observed as PM 10 at lag 4 (RR = 1.08; 95% CI 1.02, 1.14 and p < 0.05), NO 2 at lag 0 (RR = 1.22; 95% CI 1.00, 1.48), and CO at lag 0 (RR = 1.52 95% CI = (1.16, 1.99)). However, on dusty days, there were significantly higher numbers of referrals of cardiovascular patients (mean = 7.54 ± 4.44 and p = 0.002,) than on non-dusty days. According to these data, dust storms and some types of pollutants in the air are responsible for more admissions to hospitals for cardiovascular problems.

Shiraz

Gene transcript profiling in sea otters post-Exxon Valdez oil spill: A tool for marine ecosystem health assessment

Using a panel of genes stimulated by oil exposure in a laboratory study, we evaluated gene transcription in blood leukocytes sampled from sea otters captured from 2006–2012 in western Prince William Sound (WPWS), Alaska, 17–23 years after the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). We compared WPWS sea otters to reference populations (not affected by the EVOS) from the Alaska Peninsula (2009), Katmai National Park and Preserve (2009), Clam Lagoon at Adak Island (2012), Kodiak Island (2005) and captive sea otters in aquaria. Statistically, sea otter gene transcript profiles separated into three distinct clusters: Cluster 1, Kodiak and WPWS 2006–2008 (higher relative transcription); Cluster 2, Clam Lagoon and WPWS 2010–2012 (lower relative transcription); and Cluster 3, Alaska Peninsula, Katmai and captive sea otters (intermediate relative transcription). The lower transcription of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), an established biomarker for hydrocarbon exposure, in WPWS 2010–2012 compared to earlier samples from WPWS is consistent with declining hydrocarbon exposure, but the pattern of overall low levels of transcription seen in WPWS 2010–2012 could be related to other factors, such as food limitation, pathogens or injury, and may indicate an inability to mount effective responses to stressors. Decreased transcriptional response across the entire gene panel precludes the evaluation of whether or not individual sea otters show signs of exposure to lingering oil. However, related studies on sea otter demographics indicate that by 2012, the sea otter population in WPWS had recovered, which indicates diminishing oil exposure.

Alaska

Evaluation of the flood-pulse concept based on statistical models of growth of selected fishes of the upper Mississippi River system

The flood-pulse concept (FPC) states that annual inundation is the principal force responsible for productivity and biotic interactions in river-floodplain systems. Somatic growth is one component of production, and we hypothesized that, if the FPC applies, growth of fishes that use the moving littoral zone should differ among years with differing flood pattern, whereas nonlittoral fishes would show no such response. Growth of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), species that exploit littoral resources, increased during a year having an unusual warm-season flood in the Upper Mississippi River system and was reduced during low-water years. Growth of white bass (Morone chrysops), which do not rely heavily on the littoral zone, did not differ significantly between the extreme-flood and low-water years. Patterns of growth of black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), which have intermediate dependence on the moving littoral zone, were somewhat ambiguous. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the FPC applies, at least under certain conditions, to this temperate river system. Our results can also provide an important basis from which to assess some costs and benefits of water level management strategies in large regulated temperate rivers.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?

In the United States, estimation of flood frequency quantiles at ungauged locations has been largely based on regional regression techniques that relate measurable catchment descriptors to flood quantiles. More recently, spatial interpolation techniques of point data have been shown to be effective for predicting streamflow statistics (i.e., flood flows and low-flow indices) in ungauged catchments. Literature reports successful applications of two techniques, canonical kriging, CK (or physiographical-space-based interpolation, PSBI), and topological kriging, TK (or top-kriging). CK performs the spatial interpolation of the streamflow statistic of interest in the two-dimensional space of catchment descriptors. TK predicts the streamflow statistic along river networks taking both the catchment area and nested nature of catchments into account. It is of interest to understand how these spatial interpolation methods compare with generalized least squares (GLS) regression, one of the most common approaches to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. By means of a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the performance of CK and TK was compared to GLS regression equations developed for the prediction of 10, 50, 100 and 500 yr floods for 61 streamgauges in the southeast United States. TK substantially outperforms GLS and CK for the study area, particularly for large catchments. The performance of TK over GLS highlights an important distinction between the treatments of spatial correlation when using regression-based or spatial interpolation methods to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. The analysis also shows that coupling TK with CK slightly improves the performance of TK; however, the improvement is marginal when compared to the improvement in performance over GLS.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Mercury accumulation and the mercury-PCB-sex interaction in summer flounder

Patterns in the relative differences in contaminant concentrations between the sexes of mature fish may reveal important behavioral and physiological differences between the sexes. We determined whole-fish total mercury (Hg) concentrations in 23 female summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and 27 male summer flounder from New Jersey coastal waters. To estimate the change in Hg concentration due to release of eggs at spawning, Hg concentration in the somatic tissue and ovaries of 5 of the 23 female summer flounder were also determined. To ascertain whether most of the Hg in the summer flounder was methylmercury (MeHg), whole-fish MeHg concentrations were determined in all 50 summer flounder. Whole-fish Hg concentrations averaged 113 ng/g for females and 111 ng/g for males. Thus, females were 2% higher in Hg concentration than males, on average, but the difference was not statistically significant. Based on Hg determinations in the somatic tissue and ovaries, we predicted that Hg concentration of females would increase by 3.6%, on average, immediately after spawning due to release of eggs. On average, 92% of the Hg in the summer flounder was MeHg. To determine whether the effect of sex on Hg concentration was significantly different from the effect of sex on polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration, we paired our Hg determinations with PCB determinations from a previous study, and applied regression analysis. Sex significantly interacted with contaminant type (Hg or PCBs), as males were 43% higher in PCB concentration than females, whereas females were 2% higher in Hg concentration than males. Males eliminating Hg from their bodies at a faster rate than females was a likely explanation for this discrepancy between the two contaminant types. Overall, the Hg and PCB concentrations in the summer flounder were relatively low, and therefore our findings also had implications for continued operation of the summer flounder fishery.

Journal of Marine Science: Research & Development