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Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J

Good practices for species distribution modeling of deep-sea corals and sponges for resource management: Data collection, analysis, validation, and communication

Resource managers in the United States and worldwide are tasked with identifying and mitigating trade-offs between human activities in the deep sea (e.g., fishing, energy development, and mining) and their impacts on habitat-forming invertebrates, including deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS). Related management decisions require information about where DSCS occur and in what densities. Species distribution modeling (SDM) provides a cost-effective means of identifying potential DSCS habitat over large areas to inform these management decisions and data collection. Here we describe good practices for DSCS SDM, especially in the context of data collection and management applications. Managers typically need information regarding DSCS encounter probabilities, densities, and sizes, defined at sub-regional to basin-wide scales and validated using subsequent, targeted data collections. To realistically achieve these goals, we suggest analysts: 1) integrate available data sources in SDMs including fine-scale visual sampling and broad-scale resource surveys (e.g., fisheries trawl surveys); and 2) include environmental predictor variables representing multiple spatial scales, model residual spatial autocorrelation, and quantify prediction uncertainty. When possible, models fitted to presence-absence and density data are preferred over models fitted only to presence data, which are difficult to validate and can confound estimated probability of occurrence or density with sampling effort. Ensembles of models can provide robust predictions, while multi-species models leverage information across taxa and facilitate community inference. To facilitate the use of models by managers, predictions should be expressed in units that are widely understood and validated at an appropriate spatial scale using a sampling design that provides strong statistical inference. We present three case studies for the Pacific Ocean that illustrate good practices with respect to data collection, modeling, and validation; these case studies demonstrate it is possible to implement our good practices in real-world settings.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Coliform contamination of a coastal embayment: Sources and transport pathways

Fecal bacterial contamination of nearshore waters has direct economic impacts to coastal communities through the loss of shellfisheries and restrictions of recreational uses. We conducted seasonal measurements of fecal coliform (FC) sources and transport pathways contributing to FC contamination of Buttermilk Bay, a shallow embayment adjacent to Buzzards Bay, MA. Typical of most coastal embayments, there were no direct sewage discharges (i.e., outfalls), and fecal bacteria from human, domestic animal, and wildlife pools entered open waters primarily through direct deposition or after transport through surface waters or groundwaters. Direct fecal coliform inputs to bay waters occurred primarily in winter (December-March) from waterfowl, ~33 x 1012 FC yr-1 or ~67% of the total annual loading. Effects of waterfowl inputs on bay FC densities were mitigated by their seasonality, wide distribution across the bay surface, and the apparent limited dispersal from fecal pellets. On-site disposal of sewage by septic systems was the single largest FC source in the watershed-embayment system, 460 x 1012 FC yr-1, but due to attenuation during subsurface transport only a minute fraction, < 0.006 x 1012 FC yr-1, reached bay waters (<0.01% of annual input to bay). Instead, surface water flows, via storm drains and natural streams under both wet- and dry-weather conditions, contributed the major terrestrial input, 12 x 1012 FC yr-1 (24% of annual input), all from animal sources. Since most of the surface water FC inputs were associated with periodic, short-duration rain events with discharge concentrated in nearshore zones, wet-weather flows were found to have a disproportionately high impact on nearshore FC levels. Elution of FC from shoreline deposits of decaying vegetation (wrack) comprised an additional coliform source. Both laboratory and field experiments suggest significant elution of bacteria from wrack, ~3 x 1012 FC yr-1 on a bay-wide basis (6% of annual input), primarily by periodic tidal flooding and possibly by major rain events. Release of coliforms during resuspension of subtidal sediments was estimated to be a minor source in this system (<1.5 x 1012 FC yr-1 or < 3% of annual input), primarily associated with large storm events in the fall and winter. Based upon the relative source strengths and the spatial and temporal patterns of FC input to Buttermilk Bay, it appears that management practices in similar settings should account for migratory waterfowl, but remediation efforts should focus on the redirection of stormwater runoff through the groundwater transport pathway.

Environmental Science & Technology

Associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy in the United States

In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

International Journal of Environmental Research an

Avian community responses to management of vegetation and water levels in restored wetlands at the Humacao Nature Reserve, Puerto Rico

Coastal wetlands of the Caribbean have been greatly reduced in area and quality, and information on wildlife responses to management is lacking. We applied wetland management practices (disking, control of water levels) in a site historically disturbed by Saccharum spp. (sugarcane) cultivation at the Humacao Nature Reserve, southeastern Puerto Rico, and evaluated avian community response. We conducted weekly bird surveys and nest searches on disked and non-disked plots within recently constructed impoundments. The avian community shifted from 16 upland dominated species pre-restoration, to 67 wetland-dependent species at the end of our study (2001–2002). Ordination analysis indicated avian guild use of plots varied with environmental variables. Bird species diversity was not influenced by treatment, month, or salinity levels but was influenced by water depth and vegetation cover. Bird abundance was influenced by water depth, but not by treatment, month, salinity or vegetation cover. Furthermore, water depths of 0.10–0.20 m and salinity of ≤15 ppt promoted habitat conditions suitable for a diverse wetland avian community. We located 268 nests of 8 wetland bird species and observed adults with young of various other waterbirds, including species of conservation concern such as Dendrocygna arborea (West Indian Whistling Duck) and Porzana flaviventer (Yellow-breasted Crake). Bird community responses suggest that management practices (i.e., soil disturbance and control of water levels) can improve wetland biodiversity in abandoned sugarcane fields of Puerto Rico. Moreover, these practices may benefit wetland biodiversity in other Caribbean islands with a similar history of land use and habitat degradation.

Humacao Nature Reserve

Persistence and quality of vegetation cover in expired Conservation Reserve Program fields

For nearly 40 years, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has implemented practices to reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and provide habitat for wildlife and pollinators on highly erodible cropland in the United States. However, an approximately 40,470 ha (10 million acres) decline in enrolled CRP land over the last decade has greatly reduced the program's environmental benefits. We sought to assess the program's enduring benefits in the central and western United States by (1) determining the proportion of fields that persist in CRP cover after contracts expired, (2) identifying the type of agricultural production that CRP fields shift to after contract expiration, (3) comparing the vegetation characteristics of expired CRP fields that are persisting in CRP-type cover with enrolled CRP fields, and (4) identifying differences in management activities (e.g., haying, grazing) between expired and enrolled CRP fields. We conducted edge-of-field vegetation cover surveys in 1092 CRP fields with contracts that expired ≥3 years prior and 1786 currently enrolled CRP fields in 14 states. We found that 41% of expired CRP fields retained at least half of their area in CRP-type cover, with significant variation in persistence among regions ranging from 19% to 84%. When expired fields retained CRP vegetation, bare ground was low in all regions and grass cover was somewhat greater than in fields with current CRP contracts, but at the expense of forb cover in some regions. Evidence of more frequent management in expired CRP fields may explain differences between active and expired CRP fields. Overall, there is clear evidence that CRP-type cover frequently persists and provides benefits for more than three years after contract expiration. Retaining CRP-type cover, post-contract, is an under-recognized program benefit that persists across the central and western United States long after the initial retirement from cropland.

Ecosphere

Are we heading towards a global decrease in coregonine catches?

Coregonines have specific ecological needs, making them potentially very vulnerable to changes in lake conditions. A contemporary concern is that many lakes worldwide are experiencing environmental changes due to anthropogenic pressure and climate warming. Here, we compiled long-term data of coregonine catches from 27 lakes from three continents in the northern hemisphere. Declines in catch were observed in 67% of the lakes during the first two decades of the 21 st century, with a significant trend (p-value<0.05) in 44% of the cases. An analysis to determine whether trends are globally linked to environmental conditions and specific lake attributes was carried out on 26 lakes for the period 2000–2019. Several local declines in catches had already been documented in the literature and are likely to be due to local forcing such as nutrients, species invasions and changes in fishing practices. Nevertheless, on a global scale, our results indicate that lakes, which exhibited a significant decrease in catch were larger and more nutrient-poor than other lakes. The rate of change in catches appeared to be related to the trophic state of the lake. The specific effect of warming is difficult to determine during the studied period. When warming occurred outside the period of egg incubation, decreasing trends were more frequently observed in nutrient-poor than in mesotrophic lakes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that achieving oligo- or ultraoligotrophic conditions, as required in developed countries to control phytoplankton blooms and enhance water quality, could pose significant challenges for future management of coregonine fisheries.

International Journal of Limnology

Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way

Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point counts in favor of more intensive approaches to counting. However, over the past few years a variety of statistical and methodological developments have begun to provide practical ways of overcoming some of the problems with point counts. We describe some of these approaches, and show how they can be integrated into standard point count protocols to greatly enhance the quality of the information. Several tools now exist for estimation of detection probability of birds during counts, including distance sampling, double observer methods, time-depletion (removal) methods, and hybrid methods that combine these approaches. Many counts are conducted in habitats that make auditory detection of birds much more likely than visual detection. As a framework for understanding detection probability during such counts, we propose separating two components of the probability a bird is detected during a count into (1) the probability a bird vocalizes during the count and (2) the probability this vocalization is detected by an observer. In addition, we propose that some measure of the area sampled during a count is necessary for valid inferences about bird populations. This can be done by employing fixed-radius counts or more sophisticated distance-sampling models. We recommend any studies employing point counts be designed to estimate detection probability and to include a measure of the area sampled.

Book chapter

Influence of groundwater recharge and well characteristics on dissolved arsenic concentrations in southeastern Michigan groundwater

Arsenic concentrations exceeding 10 ??g/l, the United States maximum contaminant level and the World Health Organization guideline value, are frequently reported in groundwater from bedrock and unconsolidated aquifers of southeastern Michigan. Although arsenic-bearing minerals (including arsenian pyrite and oxide/hydroxide phases) have been identified in Marshall Sandstone bedrock of the Mississippian aquifer system and in tills of the unconsolidated aquifer system, mechanisms responsible for arsenic mobilization and subsequent transport in groundwater are equivocal. Recent evidence has begun to suggest that groundwater recharge and characteristics of well construction may affect arsenic mobilization and transport. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between dissolved arsenic concentrations, reported groundwater recharge rates, well construction characteristics, and geology in unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers. Results of multiple linear regression analyses indicate that arsenic contamination is more prevalent in bedrock wells that are cased in proximity to the bedrock-unconsolidated interface; no other factors were associated with arsenic contamination in water drawn from bedrock or unconsolidated aquifers. Conditions appropriate for arsenic mobilization may be found along the bedrock-unconsolidated interface, including changes in reduction/oxidation potential and enhanced biogeochemical activity because of differences between geologic strata. These results are valuable for understanding arsenic mobilization and guiding well construction practices in southeastern Michigan, and may also provide insights for other regions faced with groundwater arsenic contamination. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Environmental Geochemistry and Health

Sediment source fingerprinting as an aid to large-scale landscape conservation and restoration: A review for the Mississippi River Basin

Reliable quantitative information on sediment sources to rivers is critical to mitigate contamination and target conservation and restoration actions. However, the determination of the relative importance of sediment sources is complicated at the scale of large river basins by immense variability in erosional processes and sediment sources over space and time, heterogeneity in sediment transport and deposition, and a paucity of sediment monitoring data. Sediment source fingerprinting is an increasingly adopted field-based technique that identifies the nature and relative source contribution of sediment transported in waterways. Notably, sediment source fingerprinting provides information that is independent of other field, modeling, or remotely sensed techniques. However, the diversity in sediment fingerprinting sampling, analytical, and interpretive methods has been recognized as a problem in terms of developing standardized procedures for its application at the scale of large river basins. Accordingly, this review focuses on established sediment source fingerprinting studies conducted within the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), summarizes unique information provided by sediment source fingerprinting that is distinct from traditional monitoring techniques, evaluates consistency and reliability of methodological approaches among MRB studies, and provides prospects for the use of the sediment source fingerprinting technique as an aid to large-scale landscape conservation and restoration under current management frameworks. Most established MRB studies got creditable fingerprinting results and considered near-channel sources as the dominant sediment sources in most cases, while the comparability of their results suffers from a lack of standardization in procedural steps. Findings from MRB studies demonstrate that sediment source fingerprinting is a highly valuable and reliable sediment source assessment approach to assist land and water resource management under current management frameworks, but efforts are still needed to make this technique ready to be used in a more predominant way in large-scale landscape conservation and restoration efforts. We summarized research needs and suggested the best fingerprinting practices for management purposes with the aim of ensuring that this technique is as robust and reliable as it moves forward.

Mississippi River Basin

A systematic approach towards the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems

The United Nations General Assembly in 2006 and 2009 adopted resolutions that call for the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from significant adverse impacts of bottom fishing. While general criteria have been produced, there are no guidelines or protocols that elaborate on the process from initial identification through to the protection of VMEs. Here, based upon an expert review of existing practices, a 10-step framework is proposed: (1) Comparatively assess potential VME indicator taxa and habitats in a region; (2) determine VME thresholds; (3) consider areas already known for their ecological importance; (4) compile information on the distributions of likely VME taxa and habitats, as well as related environmental data; (5) develop predictive distribution models for VME indicator taxa and habitats; (6) compile known or likely fishing impacts; (7) produce a predicted VME naturalness distribution (areas of low cumulative impacts); (8) identify areas of higher value to user groups; (9) conduct management strategy evaluations to produce trade-off scenarios; (10) review and re-iterate, until spatial management scenarios are developed that fulfil international obligations and regional conservation and management objectives. To date, regional progress has been piecemeal and incremental. The proposed 10-step framework combines these various experiences into a systematic approach.

Marine Science

A record of change - Science and elder observations on the Navajo Nation

A Record of Change - Science and Elder Observations on the Navajo Nation is a 25-minute documentary about combining observations from Navajo elders with conventional science to determine how tribal lands and culture are affected by climate change. On the Navajo Nation, there is a shortage of historical climate data, making it difficult to assess changing environmental conditions. This video reveals how a team of scientists, anthropologists, and translators combined the rich local knowledge of Navajo elders with recent scientific investigation to effectively document environmental change. Increasing aridity and declining snowfall in this poorly monitored region of the Southwest are accompanied by declining river flow and migrating sand dunes. The observations of Navajo elders verify and supplement this record of change by informing how shifting weather patterns are reflected in Navajo cultural practices and living conditions.

Navajo Nation

Hydrology and water quality in 15 watersheds in DeKalb County, Georgia, 2012–16

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with DeKalb County Department of Watershed Management, established a long-term water-quantity and water-quality monitoring program in 2012 to monitor and analyze the hydrologic and water-quality conditions of 15 watersheds in DeKalb County, Georgia—an urban and suburban area located in north-central Georgia that includes the easternmost part of the City of Atlanta. This report synthesizes the watershed characteristics and monitoring data collected for the first 5 years of the program, 2012 through 2016. The study area was predominantly medium-density residential (43.9 percent), commercial/industrial/institutional (21.4 percent), forest/park/agriculture (13.6 percent), and high-density residential (11.5 percent) land uses. Land-surface slope averaged 8.7 percent, imperviousness averaged 25.3 percent, and population density averaged 2,936 people per square mile. Watershed imperviousness ranged from 8.7 to 36.6 percent. In the study area for 2014 to 2016 (when streamflow data were available for all watersheds), runoff represented 40.9 percent of precipitation. Hydrograph separations indicated that 43 percent of runoff occurred as base flow, whereas the remainder occurred as stormflow. Higher watershed imperviousness was significantly related to higher amounts of runoff (Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient [ r ] = 0.517), higher runoff ratios ( r = 0.646), and lower amounts ( r = −0.637) and proportions ( r = −0.898) of base-flow runoff. Stormwater best management practices have been implemented in the study watersheds; however, these practices do not appear to fully mitigate the effects of urban development and land use on stream hydrology. Total copper, lead, and zinc concentrations in base-flow and stormflow samples exceeded the national recommended aquatic life criteria for chronic and acute conditions, respectively, to varying degrees. Escherichia coli density predictive regression models indicated that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Beach Action Value was exceeded at individual watersheds between 44.6 and 100 percent of the time. Exceedance of the Beach Action Value indicates possible unsafe conditions for primary contact recreation and could be used for timely notification of the potential health risks. Annual loads and yields were estimated for 15 constituents. Loads were typically higher for years with higher runoff while variations among watershed yields appear associated with watershed and land use characteristics. The lowest yields for almost all constituents occurred in the Stone Mountain Creek watershed—likely the result of the retention of sediment and reduction of nutrients in Stone Mountain Lake and two smaller downstream reservoirs within the watershed. The Little Stone Mountain Creek watershed also had some of the lowest yields for most constituents, likely due to the lack of many pollutant sources associated with its predominantly medium-density residential land use (95.5 percent), but had the highest total nitrate plus nitrite yields. The Intrenchment Creek watershed consistently had some of the highest yields across all constituents except for total nitrate plus nitrite. The high yields may be related to its high percentage of impervious area (36.0 percent) and high amount of heavily developed land use (high-density residential, 29.9 percent and commercial/industrial/institutional, 26.0 percent). Mean watershed constituent yields in this study were significantly higher than those from a similar analysis of 13 suburban to urban watersheds in adjacent Gwinnett County for 6 of the 10 constituents compared. This study provides a thorough assessment of watershed characteristics, hydrology, and water-quality conditions of the 15 study watersheds and can be used to identify possible factors that affect runoff and water quality. Watershed managers can use these data and analyses to inform management decisions regarding the designated uses of streams, minimization of flooding, protection of aquatic habitats, and optimization of the effectiveness of best management practices.

Georgia

A bootstrap estimation scheme for chemical compositional data with nondetects

The bootstrap method is commonly used to estimate the distribution of estimators and their associated uncertainty when explicit analytic expressions are not available or are difficult to obtain. It has been widely applied in environmental and geochemical studies, where the data generated often represent parts of whole, typically chemical concentrations. This kind of constrained data is generically called compositional data, and they require specialised statistical methods to properly account for their particular covariance structure. On the other hand, it is not unusual in practice that those data contain labels denoting nondetects, that is, concentrations falling below detection limits. Nondetects impede the implementation of the bootstrap and represent an additional source of uncertainty that must be taken into account. In this work, a bootstrap scheme is devised that handles nondetects by adding an imputation step within the resampling process and conveniently propagates their associated uncertainly. In doing so, it considers the constrained relationships between chemical concentrations originated from their compositional nature. Bootstrap estimates using a range of imputation methods, including new stochastic proposals, are compared across scenarios of increasing difficulty. They are formulated to meet compositional principles following the log-ratio approach, and an adjustment is introduced in the multivariate case to deal with nonclosed samples. Results suggest that nondetect bootstrap based on model-based imputation is generally preferable. A robust approach based on isometric log-ratio transformations appears to be particularly suited in this context. Computer routines in the R statistical programming language are provided.

Journal of Chemometrics

Exploring and mitigating plague for One Health purposes

Purpose of Review In 2020, the Appropriations Committee for the U.S. House of Representatives directed the CDC to develop a national One Health framework to combat zoonotic diseases, including sylvatic plague, which is caused by the flea-borne bacterium Yersinia pestis . This review builds upon that multisectoral objective. We aim to increase awareness of Y. pestis and to highlight examples of plague mitigation for One Health purposes (i.e., to achieve optimal health outcomes for people, animals, plants, and their shared environment). We draw primarily upon examples from the USA, but also discuss research from Madagascar and Uganda where relevant, as Y. pestis has emerged as a zoonotic threat in those foci. Recent Findings Historically, the bulk of plague research has been directed at the disease in humans. This is not surprising, given that Y. pestis is a scourge of human history. Nevertheless, the ecology of Y. pestis is inextricably linked to other mammals and fleas under natural conditions. Accumulating evidence demonstrates Y. pestis is an unrelenting threat to multiple ecosystems, where the bacterium is capable of significantly reducing native species abundance and diversity while altering competitive and trophic relationships, food web connections, and nutrient cycles. In doing so, Y. pestis transforms ecosystems, causing “shifting baselines syndrome” in humans, where there is a gradual shift in the accepted norms for the condition of the natural environment. Eradication of Y. pestis in nature is difficult to impossible, but effective mitigation is achievable; we discuss flea vector control and One Health implications in this context. Summary There is an acute need to rapidly expand research on Y. pestis , across multiple host and flea species and varied ecosystems of the Western US and abroad, for human and environmental health purposes. The fate of many wildlife species hangs in the balance, and the implications for humans are profound in some regions. Collaborative multisectoral research is needed to define the scope of the problem in each epidemiological context and to identify, refine, and implement appropriate and effective mitigation practices.

Current Tropical Medicine Reports

Mapping croplands of Europe, Middle East, Russia, and Central Asia using Landsat 30-m data, machine learning algorithms and Google Earth Engine

Accurate and timely information on croplands is important for environmental, food security, and policy studies. Spatially explicit cropland datasets are also required to derive information on crop type, crop yield, cropping intensity, as well as irrigated areas. Large area defined as continental to global cropland mapping is challenging due to differential manifestation of croplands, wide range of cultivation practices and limited reference data availability. This study presents the results of a cropland extent mapping of 64 Countriescovering large parts of Europe, Middle East, Russia and Central Asia. To cover such a vast area, roughly 160,000 Landsat scenes from 3,351 footprints between 2014 and 2016 were processed within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-platform. We used the pixel-based supervised Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm with a set of satellite data inputs capturing diverse spectral, temporal and topographical characteristics across twelve agroecological zones (AEZs). The reference data to train the classification model were collected from very high spatial resolution imagery (VHRI) and ancillary datasets. The result is a binary map showing cultivated/non-cultivated areas ca. 2015. The map produced an overall accuracy of 94 percent with roughly 14 percent omission and commission errors for the cropland class based on a large set of independent validation samples. The map suggests the entire study area has a total 546 million hectares (Mha) of croplands occupying 18 percent of the land area. Comparison between national cropland area estimates from United Nations Food and Agricultural Organizations (FAO) and those derived from this work also showed an R-square value of 0.95. For the entire Landsat-derived 30-m product the overall accuracy was 93.8% with cropland class providing producers accuracy of 86.5% (errors of omissions = 13.5%) and users accuracy of 85.7% (errors of commissions = 14.3%). This Landsat-derived 30-m cropland product (GFSAD30) provided 10-30% greater cropland areas compared to UN FAO in the 64 Countries. Finally, the map-to-map comparison between GFSAD30 with several other cropland products revealed that the best similarity matrix was with the 30m global land cover (GLC30) product providing an overall accuracy of 88.8 percent (Kappa 0.7) with producers cropland similarity of 89.2 percent (errors of omissions = 10.8%) and users cropland similarity of 81.8 percent (errors of commissions = 8.1%). GFSAD30 captured the missing croplands in GLC30 product around significantly irrigated agricultural areas in Germany and Belgium and rainfed agriculture in Italy. This study also established that the real strength of GFSAD30 product, compared to other products, were in: 1. Identifying precise location of croplands, and 2. Capturing fragmented croplands. The cropland extent map dataset is available through NASAs Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) at https://doi.org/10.5067/MEaSUREs/GFSAD/GFSAD30EUCEARUMECE.001, while the training and reference data as well as visualization are available at the Global Croplands website.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Genetic structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes region and the effects of supplementation on genetic integrity of wild populations

Muskellunge ( Esox masquinongy ) are important apex predators that support numerous recreational fisheries throughout the Great Lakes region. Declines in muskellunge abundance from historical overharvest and environmental degradation have threatened the viability of many populations and prompted significant restoration efforts that often include stocking. The goal of our study was to investigate contemporary population structure and genetic diversity in 42 populations of muskellunge sampled across the Great Lakes region to inform future management and supplementation practices. We genotyped 1896 muskellunge ( N = 10–123/population) at 13 microsatellite loci. The greatest genetic variation was between populations of Great Lakes origin and populations of Northern (inland) origin, with both groups also exhibiting significant substructure (overall F ST = 0.23). Genetic structure was generally correlated with geography; however, we only found marginal evidence of isolation by distance, likely due to high genetic differentiation among proximate populations. Measures of genetic diversity were moderate across most populations, but some populations displayed low diversity consistent with small population sizes or historical bottlenecks. Many of the populations studied displayed evidence of historic introductions and supplemental stocking, including the presence of individuals with primarily non-native ancestry as well as interlineage hybrids. Our results suggest that the historic population structure of muskellunge is largely intact across the Great Lakes region, but also that stocking practices have altered this structure to some degree. We suggest that future supplementation practices use local sources where possible, and incorporate genetic tools including broodstock screening to ensure that non-native muskellunge are not used to supplement wild populations.

Great Lakes