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USGS2026

A catalogue of Do's and Don'ts in the modeling of environmental systems

Modeling plays a vital role in understanding and managing complex environmental systems, but its credibility and quality depend heavily on a comprehensive set of defensible model activities and practices, especially when the system of interest is plagued with uncertainties and conflicting stakeholder perspectives. This paper proposes a catalogue of Do's and Don'ts to guide modelers in addressing the many pertinent considerations through the whole modeling cycle. This practical tool provides advice on approaching modeling effectively through adhering to good modeling practice. It emphasizes model choices that align with the model purpose and context, and the justification and documentation of modeling decisions and assumptions. Managing uncertainty is a core consideration. The identification, assessment and reporting of these uncertainties is important across the entire modeling process, which spans problem framing, technical design, implementation and application phases. Such good practices are critical for transparency and reliability of the modeling.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2006

Modeling wetland plant community response to assess water-level regulation scenarios in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River basin

The International Joint Commission has recently completed a five-year study (2000-2005) to review the operation of structures controlling the flows and levels of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system. In addition to addressing the multitude of stakeholder interests, the regulation plan review also considers environmental sustainability and integrity of wetlands and various ecosystem components. The present paper outlines the general approach, scientific methodology and applied management considerations of studies quantifying the relationships between hydrology and wetland plant assemblages (% occurrence, surface area) in Lake Ontario and the Upper and Lower St. Lawrence River. Although similar study designs were used across the study region, different methodologies were required that were specifically adapted to suit the important regional differences between the lake and river systems, range in water-level variations, and confounding factors (geomorphic types, exposure, sediment characteristics, downstream gradient of water quality, origin of water masses in the Lower River). Performance indicators (metrics), such as total area of wetland in meadow marsh vegetation type, that link wetland response to water levels will be used to assess the effects of different regulation plans under current and future (climate change) water-supply scenarios.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2013

Development of a stock-recruitment model and assessment of biological reference points for the Lake Erie walleye fishery

We developed an updated stock–recruitment relationship for Lake Erie Walleye Sander vitreus using the Akaike information criterion model selection approach. Our best stock–recruitment relationship was a Ricker spawner–recruit function to which spring warming rate was added as an environmental variable, and this regression model explained 39% of the variability in Walleye recruitment over the 1978 through 2006 year-classes. Thus, most of the variability in Lake Erie Walleye recruitment appeared to be attributable to factors other than spawning stock size and spring warming rate. The abundance of age-0 Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, which was an important term in previous models, may still be an important factor for Walleye recruitment, but poorer ability to monitor Gizzard Shad since the late 1990s could have led to that term failing to appear in our best model. Secondly, we used numerical simulation to demonstrate how to use the stock recruitment relationship to characterize the population dynamics (such as stable age structure, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable yield) and some biological reference points (such as fishing rates at different important biomass or harvest levels) for an age-structured population in a deterministic way.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

Metal bioavailability models: Current status, lessons learned, considerations for regulatory use, and the path forward

Since the early 2000s, biotic ligand models and related constructs have been a dominant paradigm for risk assessment of aqueous metals in the environment. We critically review 1) the evidence for the mechanistic approach underlying metal bioavailability models; 2) considerations for the use and refinement of bioavailability-based toxicity models; 3) considerations for the incorporation of metal bioavailability models into environmental quality standards; and 4) some consensus recommendations for developing or applying metal bioavailability models. We note that models developed to date have been particularly challenged to accurately incorporate pH effects because they are unique with multiple possible mechanisms. As such, we doubt it is ever appropriate to lump algae/plant and animal bioavailability models; however, it is often reasonable to lump bioavailability models for animals, although aquatic insects may be an exception. Other recommendations include that data generated for model development should consider equilibrium conditions in exposure designs, including food items in combined waterborne–dietary matched chronic exposures. Some potentially important toxicity-modifying factors are currently not represented in bioavailability models and have received insufficient attention in toxicity testing. Temperature is probably of foremost importance; phosphate is likely important in plant and algae models. Acclimation may result in predictions that err on the side of protection. Striking a balance between comprehensive, mechanistically sound models and simplified approaches is a challenge. If empirical bioavailability tools such as multiple-linear regression models and look-up tables are employed in criteria, they should always be informed qualitatively and quantitatively by mechanistic models. If bioavailability models are to be used in environmental regulation, ongoing support and availability for use of the models in the public domain are essential.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2005

Multi-scale remote sensing of coral reefs

In this chapter we present how both direct and indirect remote sensing can be integrated to address two major coral reef applications - coral bleaching and assessment of biodiversity. This approach reflects the current non-linear integration of remote sensing for environmental assessment of coral reefs, resulting from a rapid increase in available sensors, processing methods and interdisciplinary collaborations (Andréfouët and Riegl, 2004). Moreover, this approach has greatly benefited from recent collaborations of once independent investigations (e.g., benthic ecology, remote sensing, and numerical modeling).

Florida↗

USGS2016

Moss and vascular plant indices in Ohio wetlands have similar environmental predictors

Mosses and vascular plants have been shown to be reliable indicators of wetland habitat delineation and environmental quality. Knowledge of the best ecological predictors of the quality of wetland moss and vascular plant communities may determine if similar management practices would simultaneously enhance both populations. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to identify models predicting a moss quality assessment index (MQAI) and a vascular plant index of biological integrity based on floristic quality (VIBI-FQ) from 27 emergent and 13 forested wetlands in Ohio, USA. The set of predictors included the six metrics from a wetlands disturbance index (ORAM) and two landscape development intensity indices (LDIs). The best single predictor of MQAI and one of the predictors of VIBI-FQ was an ORAM metric that assesses habitat alteration and disturbance within the wetland, such as mowing, grazing, and agricultural practices. However, the best single predictor of VIBI-FQ was an ORAM metric that assessed wetland vascular plant communities, interspersion, and microtopography. LDIs better predicted MQAI than VIBI-FQ, suggesting that mosses may either respond more rapidly to, or recover more slowly from, anthropogenic disturbance in the surrounding landscape than vascular plants. These results supported previous predictive studies on amphibian indices and metrics and a separate vegetation index, indicating that similar wetland management practices may result in qualitatively the same ecological response for three vastly different wetland biological communities (amphibians, vascular plants, and mosses).

Ohio↗

USGS2015

Does the stress-gradient hypothesis hold water? Disentangling spatial and temporal variation in plant effects on soil moisture in dryland systems

The nature of the relationship between water limitation and facilitation has been one of the most contentious debates surrounding the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), which states that plant-plant interactions shift from competition to facilitation with increasing environmental stress. We take a closer look at the potential role of soil moisture in mediating plant-plant interaction outcomes by assessing effects of climate and soil texture on plant modulation of soil moisture. Using an empirically-parameterized soil moisture model, we simulated soil moisture dynamics beneath shrubs and in un-vegetated coarse and fine soils for 1000 sites in the Western United States with <700 mm mean annual precipitation. This threshold reflects the transition from dryland (<600 mm precipitation) to mesic ecosystems. Positive effects of shrubs on shallow soil moisture (i.e. the difference between shrub and interspace soil moisture) decreased along the aridity gradient when long-term average conditions were considered, contrary to expectations based on the SGH. Negative effects of shrubs on deeper soil moisture also increased with aridity. However, when extreme years were considered, positive effects of shrub on soil moisture were greatest at intermediate points along the spatial aridity gradient, consistent with a hump-backed model of plant-plant interactions. When viewed through time within a site, shrub effects on shallow soil moisture were positively related to precipitation, with more complex relationships exhibited in deeper soils Taken together, the results of this simulation study suggest that plant effects on soil moisture are predictable based on relatively general relationships between precipitation inputs and differential evaporation and transpiration rates between plant and interspace microsites that are largely driven by temperature. In particular, this study highlights the importance of differentiating between temporal and spatial variation in weather and climate, respectively, in determining plant effects on available soil moisture. Rather than focusing on the somewhat coarse-scale predictions of the SGH, it may be more beneficial to explicitly incorporate plant effects on soil moisture into predictive models of plant-plant interaction outcomes in drylands.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2015

How spatio-temporal habitat connectivity affects amphibian genetic structure

Heterogeneous landscapes and fluctuating environmental conditions can affect species dispersal, population genetics, and genetic structure, yet understanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect population dynamics in a fluctuating environment is critical for species management. We evaluated how spatio-temporal habitat connectivity influences dispersal and genetic structure in a population of boreal chorus frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) using a landscape genetics approach. We developed gravity models to assess the contribution of various factors to the observed genetic distance as a measure of functional connectivity. We selected (a) wetland (within-site) and (b) landscape matrix (between-site) characteristics; and (c) wetland connectivity metrics using a unique methodology. Specifically, we developed three networks that quantify wetland connectivity based on: (i) P. maculata dispersal ability, (ii) temporal variation in wetland quality, and (iii) contribution of wetland stepping-stones to frog dispersal. We examined 18 wetlands in Colorado, and quantified 12 microsatellite loci from 322 individual frogs. We found that genetic connectivity was related to topographic complexity, within- and between-wetland differences in moisture, and wetland functional connectivity as contributed by stepping-stone wetlands. Our results highlight the role that dynamic environmental factors have on dispersal-limited species and illustrate how complex asynchronous interactions contribute to the structure of spatially-explicit metapopulations.

Colorado↗

USGS2019

Evaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China

Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition can readily be monitored. In this study, wall-to-wall maps of species-level AFB were generated for forests in Northeast China by integrating forest inventory data with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and environmental variables through applying the optimal k -nearest neighbor ( k NN) imputation model. By comparing the prediction accuracy of 630 k NN models, we found that the models with random forest (RF) as the distance metric showed the highest accuracy. Compared to the use of single-month MODIS data for September, there was no appreciable improvement for the estimation accuracy of species-level AFB by using multi-month MODIS data. When k > 7, the accuracy improvement of the RF-based k NN models using the single MODIS predictors for September was essentially negligible. Therefore, the k NN model using the RF distance metric, single-month (September) MODIS predictors and k = 7 was the optimal model to impute the species-level AFB for entire Northeast China. Our imputation results showed that average AFB of all species over Northeast China was 101.98 Mg/ha around 2000. Among 17 widespread species, larch was most dominant, with the largest AFB (20.88 Mg/ha), followed by white birch (13.84 Mg/ha). Amur corktree and willow had low AFB (0.91 and 0.96 Mg/ha, respectively). Environmental variables (e.g., climate and topography) had strong relationships with species-level AFB. By integrating forest inventory data and remote sensing data with complete spatial coverage using the optimal k NN model, we successfully mapped the AFB distribution of the 17 tree species over Northeast China. We also evaluated the accuracy of AFB at different spatial scales. The AFB estimation accuracy significantly improved from stand level up to the ecotype level, indicating that the AFB maps generated from this study are more suitable to apply to forest ecosystem models (e.g., LINKAGES) which require species-level attributes at the ecotype scale.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2018

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2009

Hydrogeology and Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury Aquifer System, Southeastern Massachusetts

The glacial sediments that underlie the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury area of southeastern Massachusetts compose an important aquifer system that is the primary source of water for a region undergoing rapid development. Population increases and land-use changes in this area has led to two primary environmental effects that relate directly to groundwater resources: (1) increases in pumping that can adversely affect environmentally sensitive groundwater-fed surface waters, such as ponds, streams, and wetlands; and (2) adverse effects of land use on the quality of water in the aquifer. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, began an investigation in 2005 to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology in the area and to assess the effects of changing pumping and recharge conditions on groundwater flow in the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer system. A numerical flow model was developed based on the USGS computer program MODFLOW-2000 to assist in the analysis of groundwater flow. Model simulations were used to determine water budgets, flow directions, and the sources of water to pumping wells, ponds, streams, and coastal areas. Model-calculated water budgets indicate that approximately 298 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water recharges the Plymouth-Carver-Kingston-Duxbury aquifer system. Most of this water (about 70 percent) moves through the aquifer, discharges to streams, and then reaches the coast as surface-water discharge. Of the remaining 30 percent of flow, about 25 percent of the water that enters the aquifer as recharge discharges directly to coastal areas and 5 percent discharges to pumping wells. Groundwater withdrawals are anticipated to increase from the current (2005) rate of about 14 Mgal/d to about 21 Mgal/d by 2030. Pumping from large-capacity production wells decreases water levels and increases the potential for effects on surface-water bodies, which are affected by pumping and wastewater disposal locations and rates. Pumping wells that are upgradient of surface-water bodies potentially capture water that would otherwise discharge to these surface-water bodies, thereby reducing streamflow and pond levels. The areas most affected by proposed increases in groundwater withdrawals are in the Towns of Plymouth and Wareham where more than half of the proposed increase in pumping will occur. In response to an increase of about 7 Mgal/d of pumping, groundwater discharge to streams is reduced by about 6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) (about 4 Mgal/d) from a total of about 325 ft3/s. Reduction in streamflow is moderated by an increase of artificial recharge from wastewater returned to the aquifer by onsite domestic septic systems and centralized wastewater treatment facilities. It is anticipated that about 3 Mgal/d of the 7 Mgal/d of increase in pumped water will be returned to the aquifer as wastewater by 2030. Currently (2005) about 3 percent of groundwater discharge to streams is from wastewater return flow to the aquifer during average conditions. During drought conditions, the component of streamflow augmented by wastewater return flow doubles as wastewater recharge remains constant and aquifer recharge rates decrease. Wastewater return flow, whether as direct groundwater discharge to streams or as an additional source of aquifer recharge, increases the height of the water table near streams, thereby moderating the effects of increased groundwater withdrawals on streamflow. An analysis of a simulated drought similar to the 1960s drought of record indicates that the presence of streams moderates the effects on water levels of reduced aquifer recharge. The area where water-table altitudes were least affected by drought was in the Weweantic River watershed in the Town of Carver. Water levels decreased by less than 2 feet from current average conditions compared to decreases of greater than 5

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Evaluation of actual evapotranspiration rates from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model in Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia, 2000–17

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the water-vapor flux transported from the surface of the Earth into the atmosphere and is the sum of surface water directly evaporated and subsurface water transpired by plants. ET rates are commonly estimated by using potential or reference ET, which might differ from actual ET rates. Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) rates can be estimated by using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model. This report evaluates SSEBop ETa rates at the point and basin scales in Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia for 2000–17. ETa rates computed by using data from 24 micrometeorological stations in Florida are referred to as mETa rates and were used to quantify biases in the SSEBop ETa rates, stratified by generalized land-use type. Bias was computed as mETa minus SSEBop ETa rates for given generalized land-use types, and bias-correction equations were computed by using least-squares regressions. In addition to mETa rates at station locations, annual average ETa rates calculated from the application of a water-balance method to 55 basins in Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia were used to assess the accuracy of the annual SSEBop ETa rates at the basin scale. Another independent model used to simulate ETa rates was based on monthly reference ET from the statewide daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) gridded dataset for Florida computed by using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite estimates of solar radiation (GOES ETo). ETa at grid points was computed as monthly GOES ETo multiplied by ratios of monthly mETa to GOES ETo, computed at micrometeorological stations and stratified by each generalized land-use type. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) between monthly mETa and SSEBop ETa rates for all stations combined improved from 0.37 before bias correction of SSEBop ETa rates to 0.79 after the bias correction stratified by land-use type. For individual land-uses types, R 2 varied from 0.59 for the monthly mETa at a station in the land-use type forest to 0.82 for the monthly mETa at stations in the land-use type shallow-water-table pasture. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) was computed as a function of the difference between SSEBop ETa rates and mETa rates. RMSE of monthly SSEBop ETa rates was 1.27 inches per month before the bias corrections improved to 0.73 inch per month after the bias corrections. RMSE for bias-corrected annual SSEBop ETa rates based on micrometeorological stations with complete years of records ranged from 2.01 inches per year (in/yr) for the land-use type of agriculture to 5.73 in/yr for the land-use type of deep water-table pasture, or 4.96 and 21.21 percent errors relative to annual mETa rates, respectively. Bias-corrected annual SSEBop ETa rates were also compared to annual ETa rates computed by using a water-balance method (wbETa) for 55 basins in Florida. Differences in bias-corrected average annual SSEBop ETa rates and average annual wbETa rates for the 55 basins ranged from −3.67 to 5.29 in/yr (−9.24 to 17.36 percent). RMSE when computed as a function of the differences between annual SSEBop ETa rates and wbETa rates decreased, on average, from 4.13 in/yr for the uncorrected bias SSEBop ETa rates to 1.95 in/yr for the bias-corrected SSEBop rates. The average annual bias-corrected SSEBop ETa rates, from all basins, was 36.46 in/yr or 3.41 percent lower than the average annual wbETa rate of 37.79 inches. Bias in SSEBop ETa rates varies based on time step (monthly versus annual), scale (point, basin, statewide), and land-use type. Applications to hydrologic models should consider bias relative to the inherent error in models. Bias-corrected SSEBop ETa rates could be used as calibration targets in models of hydrologic processes, such as groundwater models. Annual bias in SSEBop ETa introduced to the model calibration is typically below the margin of error associated with typical residuals in model simulations, depending on scale. Surface-water and groundwater-flow models with RMSEs on the order of a few feet could benefit from bias-corrected SSEBop values of ETa.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2019

Quantifying 87Sr/86Sr temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity for use in tracking fish movement

The specificity and accuracy of inferred fish origin and movement relies on describing spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability of environmental signatures. But the cost and logistics of sample collection often precludes the complete quantification of environmental signature temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity. We used repeated sampling and a novel approach (Bayesian ridge regression, BRR) to quantify the temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, respectively. We explained 86% of observed variation in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr using a BRR model and estimated 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the Upper North Platte River Basin with high accuracy (±0.00106). Year to year variation in 87 Sr/ 86 Sr signatures ranged from 0.00007 to 0.00073 (SD), while seasonal variation ranged from 0.00091 to 0.00134 (SD). We then assessed the specificity and discussed the accuracy of inferring movement using three scenarios of described spatial heterogeneity. Our results indicate reliable inference of fish movement requires comprehensive quantification of spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in environmental signatures.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Western and McKay's bumble bees occupancy trends and future projections

The Western and McKay's bumble bees, originally petitioned for listing as subspecies of the Western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis) were previously among the most common western bumble bee species but have declined since the late 1990s (Graves et al. 2021). This report details an occupancy analysis utilizing pre-existing and newly collected bumble bee survey data to evaluate potential mechanisms associated with species trends across their distributions in western North America. In addition to evaluating spatially explicit changes in occupancy trends, we also sought to assess how widespread environmental conditions and stressors influence occupancy. Although changing climate, land cover, pesticides, and pathogens have all been identified as potential mechanisms for declines (Cameron et al. 2011, Kerr et al. 2015, Soroye et al. 2020), previous studies have not tied most climate hypotheses to bumble bee life histories or evaluated combined effects of more than 2 of these mechanisms at multi-state/ multiprovince scales. Using a scenario-based approach across climate models, emissions, and land cover scenarios, we projected future occupancy to mid-century (2050-2059). This analysis was conducted to support the Species Status Assessment (SSA) for Western and Mckay’s bumble bees being administered by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS).

Report↗

USGS2014

GIS-based rapid-assessment of bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (Richardson, 1845) suitability in reservoirs

Broad-scale niche models are good for examining the potential for invasive species occurrences, but can fall short in providing managers with site-specific locations for monitoring. Using Oklahoma as an example, where invasive bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are established in certain reservoirs, but predicted to be widely distributed based on broad-scale niche models, we cast bighead carp reproductive ecology in a site-specific geospatial framework to determine their potential establishment in additional reservoirs. Because bighead carp require large, long free-flowing rivers with suitable hydrology for reproduction but can persist in reservoirs, we considered reservoir tributaries with mean annual daily discharge ≥8.5 cubic meters per second (m3 /s) and quantified the length of their unimpeded portions. In contrast to published broad-scale niche models that identified nearly the entire state as susceptible to invasion, our site-specific models showed that few reservoirs in Oklahoma (N = 9) were suitable for bighead carp establishment. Moreover, this method was rapid and identified sites that could be prioritized for increased study or scrutiny. Our results highlight the importance of considering the environmental characteristics of individual sites, which is often the level at which management efforts are implemented when assessing susceptibility to invasion.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2002

Association of methylmercury with dissolved humic acids

Sorption of methylmercury (MeHg) to three different humic acids was investigated as a function of pH and humic concentration. The extent of sorption did not show a strong pH dependence within the pH range of 5−9. Below pH 5, a decrease in adsorption for all humic samples was observed. The experimental data for equilibrium sorption of MeHg were modeled using a discrete log K spectrum approach with three weakly acidic functional groups. The modeling parameters, which were the equilibrium binding constants and the total binding capacities, represented the data well at all MeHg and humic concentra tions and pH values for a given humic sample. The estimated binding constants for complexes of MeHg with humic acids were similar in magnitude to those of MeHg with thiol-containing compounds, suggesting that binding of MeHg involves the thiol groups of humic acids. The results show that only a small fraction of the reduced sulfur species in humic substances may take part in binding MeHg, but in most natural systems, this subfraction is considerably higher in concentration than ambient MeHg. The model developed here can be incorporated into speciation models to assess the bioavailability of MeHg in the presence of dissolved organic matter and competing ligands such as chloride and sulfide.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2012

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long-term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentration along with an increase in NO 3 -N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.

Missouri↗