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At least 433 records · Page 24Linked to original sources
USGS1977

Entropy, materials, and posterity

Materials and energy are the interdependent feedstocks of economic systems, and thermodynamics is their moderator. It costs energy to transform the dispersed minerals of Earth's crust into ordered materials and structures. And it costs materials to collect and focus the energy to perform work - be it from solar, fossil fuel, nuclear, or other sources. The greater the dispersal of minerals sought, the more energy is required to collect them into ordered states. But available energy can be used once only. And the ordered materials of industrial economies become disordered with time. They may be partially reordered and recycled, but only at further costs in energy. Available energy everywhere degrades to bound states and order to disorder - for though entropy may be juggled it always increases. Yet industry is utterly dependent on low entropy states of matter and energy, while decreasing grades of ore require ever higher inputs of energy to convert them to metals, with ever increasing growth both of entropy and environmental hazard. Except as we may prize a thing for its intrinsic qualities - beauty, leisure, love, or gold - low-entropy is the only thing of real value. It is worth whatever the market will bear, and it becomes more valuable as entropy increases. It would be foolish of suppliers to sell it more cheaply or in larger amounts than their own enjoyment of life requires, whatever form it may take. For this reason, and because of physical constraints on the availability of all low-entropy states, the recent energy crises is only the first of a sequence of crises to be expected in energy and materials as long as current trends continue. The apportioning of low-entropy states in a modern industrial society is achieved more or less according to the theory of competitive markets. But the rational powers of this theory suffer as the world grows increasingly polarized into rich, over-industrialized nations with diminishing resource bases and poor, supplier nations with little industry. The theory also discounts posterity, the more so as population density and percapita rates of consumption continue to grow. A new social, economic, and ecologic norm that leads to population control, conservation, and an apportionment of low-entropy states across the generations is needed to assure to posterity the options that properly belong to it as an important but voiceless constituency of the collectivity we call mankind. ?? 1977 Ferdinand Enke Verlag Stuttgart.

Geologische Rundschau↗
USGS2013

Coral reef resilience through biodiversity

Irrefutable evidence of coral reef degradation worldwide and increasing pressure from rising seawater temperatures and ocean acidification associated with climate change have led to a focus on reef resilience and a call to “manage” coral reefs for resilience. Ideally, global action to reduce emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will be accompanied by local action. Effective management requires reduction of local stressors, identification of the characteristics of resilient reefs, and design of marine protected area networks that include potentially resilient reefs. Future research is needed on how stressors interact, on how climate change will affect corals, fish, and other reef organisms as well as overall biodiversity, and on basic ecological processes such as connectivity. Not all reef species and reefs will respond similarly to local and global stressors. Because reef-building corals and other organisms have some potential to adapt to environmental changes, coral reefs will likely persist in spite of the unprecedented combination of stressors currently affecting them. The biodiversity of coral reefs is the basis for their remarkable beauty and for the benefits they provide to society. The extraordinary complexity of these ecosystems makes it both more difficult to predict their future and more likely they will have a future.

ISRN Oceanography↗
USGS2017

Diatoms in estuaries and tidal marshes

Diatoms from estuarine and marsh sediments can be used to evaluate a number of geological processes. Information on salinity, elevation, and substrate derived from modern assemblages have been used to determine local and regional Holocene sea level history, identify seismic and tsunami events, and aid in the recognition of regional variations in precipitation. In order to apply diatoms to these questions, it is necessary to have a detailed knowledge of the ecology of marine, brackish, and freshwater taxa, as well as an understanding of the taphonomic processes that determine the final diatom assemblage. The potential for studies of pre-Holocene estuarine depositional systems is largely limited by the availability of study sites.

The Paleontological Society Papers↗
USGS2011

Deepwater demersal fish community collapse in Lake Huron

Long-term fish community surveys were carried out in the Michigan waters of Lake Huron using bottom trawls from 1976 to 2006. Trends in abundance indices for common species (those caught in 10% or more of trawl tows) were estimated for two periods: early (1976-1991) and late (1994-2006). All common species significantly decreased in abundance during the late period with the exception of the johnny darter Etheostoma nigrum and spottail shiner Notropis hudsonius, which showed no significant trends, and the round goby Neogobius melanostomus, which increased in abundance. Percentage decreases in abundance indices between 1994-1995 and 2005-2006 ranged from 66.4% to 99.9%, and seven species decreased in abundance by more than 90%. The mean biomass of all common species in 2006 was the lowest observed in the time series and was less than 5% of that observed in the mid-1990s. The mean number of common species captured per trawl has also decreased since the mid-1990s. Several factors, including recent invasion of the lake by multiple exotic species, may have contributed to these declines, but insufficient published data are currently available to determine which factors are most important. Our observations suggest that significant changes have occurred in the ecology of Lake Huron since the mid-1990s. The extent of these changes indicates that the deepwater demersal fish community in Lake Huron is undergoing collapse.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2023

Viewing river corridors through the lens of critical zone science

River corridors integrate the active channels, geomorphic floodplain and riparian areas, and hyporheic zone while receiving inputs from the uplands and groundwater and exchanging mass and energy with the atmosphere. Here, we trace the development of the contemporary understanding of river corridors from the perspectives of geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, and biogeochemistry. We then summarize contemporary models of the river corridor along multiple axes including dimensions of space and time, disturbance regimes, connectivity, hydrochemical exchange flows, and legacy effects of humans. We explore how river corridor science can be advanced with a critical zone framework by moving beyond a primary focus on discharge-based controls toward multi-factor models that identify dominant processes and thresholds that make predictions that serve society. We then identify opportunities to investigate relationships between large-scale spatial gradients and local-scale processes, embrace that riverine processes are temporally variable and interacting, acknowledge that river corridor processes and services do not respect disciplinary boundaries and increasingly need integrated multidisciplinary investigations, and explicitly integrate humans and their management actions as part of the river corridor. We intend our review to stimulate cross-disciplinary research while recognizing that river corridors occupy a unique position on the Earth's surface.

Frontiers in Water↗
USGS2024

Mechanisms, detections, and impacts of species redistributions under climate change

Shifts in species distributions are a common ecological response to climate change, and global temperature rise is often hypothesized as the primary driver. However, the directions and rates of distribution shifts are highly variable across species, systems, and studies, complicating efforts to manage and anticipate biodiversity responses to anthropogenic change. In this Review, we summarize approaches to documenting species range shifts, discuss why observed range shifts often do not match our expectations, and explore the impacts of species range shifts on nature and society. The majority (59%) of documented range shifts are directionally consistent with climate change, based on the BioShifts database of range shift observations. However, many observed species have not shifted or have shifted in directions opposite to temperature-based expectations. These lagging or expectation-contrary shifts might be explained by additional biotic or abiotic factors driving range shifts, including additional non-temperature climatic drivers, habitat characteristics, and species interactions, which are not normally considered in range shift documentations. Understanding and managing range shifts will require increasing and connecting observational biological data, generalizing range shift patterns across systems, and predicting shifts at management-relevant timescales.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2023

Virtual snow stakes: a new method for snow depth measurement at remote camera stations

Remote cameras are used to study demographics, ecological processes, and behavior of wildlife populations. Cameras have also been used to measure snow depth with physical snow stakes. However, concerns that physical instruments at camera sites may influence animal behavior limit installation of instruments to facilitate collecting such data. Given that snow depth data are inherently contained within images, potential insights that could be made using these data are lost. To facilitate camera-based snow depth observations without additional equipment installation, we developed a method implemented in an R package called edger to superimpose virtual measurement devices onto images. The virtual snow stakes can be used to derive snow depth measurements. We validated the method for snow depth estimation using camera data from Latah County, Idaho, USA in winter 2020–2021. Mean bias error between the virtual snow stake and a physical snow stake was 5.8 cm; the mean absolute bias error was 8.8 cm. The mean Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency score comparing the fit of the 2 sets of measurements within each camera was 0.748, indicating good agreement. The edger package provides researchers with a means to take critical measurements for ecological studies without the use of physical objects that could alter animal behavior, and snow data at finer scales can complement other snow data sources that have coarser spatial and temporal resolution.

Idaho↗
USGS2026

Region-specific understanding of virus transmission to support salmonid health at hatcheries in three regions of the Pacific Northwest, North America

Juvenile salmonid mortality due to infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) can be a major burden on fish hatcheries. We consider possible IHNV transmission routes and specialist–generalist patterns across three regions in the Pacific Northwest of North America: Coastal Washington and Oregon (CWO), Lower Columbia River Basin (LCRB) and Snake River Basin (SRB) to obtain multi-region inference about IHNV transmission and specialization. While individual regions have been studied previously, our consideration of three regions to identify consistent trends or localized patterns is novel. The most consistent patterns we found were that most exposure to IHNV was from migrating adult salmonids and that the IHNV lineage MD specialized in steelhead and rainbow trout. Our results were consistent with LCRB being a source of IHNV and the SRB and CWO being sinks. Results specific to particular regions include the role of local geography on exposure and influence of hatchery complexes on transmission, which highlights the need to understand local hatchery operations before disease ecology can be understood and suitable hatchery management can be planned. Results demonstrate the need for spatially and temporally explicit quantitative approaches to understand disease dynamics and inform management.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2015

Spatial structure of morphological and neutral genetic variation in Brook Trout

Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis exhibit exceptional levels of life history variation, remarkable genetic variability, and fine-scale population structure. In many cases, neighboring populations may be highly differentiated from one another to an extent that is comparable with species-level distinctions in other taxa. Although genetic samples have been collected from hundreds of populations and tens of thousands of individuals, little is known about whether differentiation at neutral markers reflects phenotypic differences among Brook Trout populations. We compared differentiation in morphology and neutral molecular markers among populations from four geographically proximate locations (all within 24 km) to examine how genetic diversity covaries with morphology. We found significant differences among and/or within streams for all three morphological axes examined and identified the source stream of many individuals based on morphology (52.3% classification efficiency). Although molecular and morphological differentiation among streams ranged considerably (mean pairwise F ST : 0.023–0.264; pairwise P ST : 0.000–0.339), the two measures were not significantly correlated. While in some cases morphological characters appear to have diverged to a greater extent than expected by neutral genetic drift, many traits were conserved to a greater extent than were neutral genetic markers. Thus, while Brook Trout exhibit fine-scale spatial patterns in both morphology and neutral genetic diversity, these types of biological variabilities are being structured by different ecological and evolutionary processes. The relative influences of genetic drift versus selection and phenotypic plasticity in shaping morphology appear to vary among populations occupying nearby streams.

Maryland↗
USGS2025

Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ↗
USGS2011

Long-term trends in habitat use of offshore demersal fishes in western Lake Huron suggest large-scale ecosystem change

We estimated mean depths of capture for offshore demersal fish species, grouped into three habitat-based guilds (shallow benthic, pelagic, and deep benthic), using fall bottom trawl data (27–73 m) in the western main basin of Lake Huron from 1976 to 2007. The mean depth of capture of the shallow and deep benthic guilds initially exhibited a trend toward capture in shallower water, switched to a trend toward capture in deeper water in 1991, and changed back to a trend toward capture in shallower water in 2001–2002. Species in the pelagic guild showed a similar pattern, but the initial change point occurred in 1981 for this guild. Individual species in these guilds showed variable patterns of depth distribution, but a feature common to all guilds and all pelagic and deep benthic species was a change to a trend toward capturing fish in shallower water that occurred nearly simultaneously (1999–2002). These common trends suggest that large-scale factors are affecting the habitat use of offshore demersal fish species in Lake Huron. The depth distributions of the three guilds have converged in recent years, indicating that the locations of suitable habitat for offshore demersal fishes may be changing. Our results indicate that the benthic ecology of the western main basin of Lake Huron is undergoing profound changes across a large spatial scale that are affecting the habitat use of offshore demersal fishes. We suggest that these changes are related to recent invasions of exotic species.

Lake Huron↗
USGS2016

Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole wetlands and climate change: An Introduction to the Supplemental Issue

The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape and recognized value, great interest in how projected future changes in climate will affect prairie-pothole wetlands has developed and spawned much scientific research. On June 2, 2015, a special symposium, “Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole Wetlands: Influence of a Changed Climate,” was held at the annual meeting of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, Rhode Island, USA. The symposium’s twelve presenters covered a wide range of relevant topics delivered to a standing-room-only audience. Following the symposium, the presenters recognized the need to publish their presented papers as a combined product to facilitate widespread distribution. The need for additional papers to more fully cover the topic of prairie-pothole wetlands and climate change was also identified. This supplemental issue of Wetlands is the realization of that vision.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2003

Status of Alabama shad and skipjack herring in Gulf of Mexico drainages

Gulf of Mexico drainages are inhabited by two alosine species, the anadromous Alabama shad Alosa alabamae and the skipjack herring A. chrysochloris. Although their distributions are reasonably well documented, the life history and ecology of both species has been incompletely investigated. Infrequent literature references suggest populations of both species have been adversely affected by river management activities throughout parts of their ranges. This purpose of this paper is to summarize available information concerning past and present distributions, population characteristics, spawning and fecundity, age and growth, and population trends of both species as well as threats to the species. Areas of research are suggested to maintain and possibly recover existing populations. ?? 2003 by the American Fisheries Society.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗
USGS2018

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗
USGS2014

Status and trends of Caribbean coral reefs: 1970-2012

This it the 9th status report since the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) was founded in 1995 was the data arm of the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) to document the ecological condition or corral reefs, strengthen monitoring efforts, and link existing organizations and people working on reefs worldwide. The US Government provided the initial funding to help set up a global network of coral reef workers and has continued to provide core support. Since then, the series of reports have aimed to present the current status of coral reefs of the world or particular regions, the major threats to reefs and their consequences, and any initiative undertaken under the auspices of ICRI or other bodies to arrest or reverse the decline of coral reefs. IUCN assumed responsibility for hosting the global coordination of the GCRMN in 2010 under the scientific direction of Jeremy Jackson with the following objectives: 1. Document quantitatively the global status and trends for corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fishes based on available data from individual scientists as well as the peer reviewed scientific literature, monitoring programs, and report. 2. Bring together regional experts in a series of workshops to involve them in data compilation, analysis, and synthesis. 3. Integrate coral reef status and trends with independent environmental, management, and socioeconomic data to better understand the primary factors responsible for coral reef decline, the possible synergies among factors that may further magnify their impacts, and how these stresses may be more effectively alleviated. Work with GCRMN partners to establish simple and practical standardized protocols for future monitoring and assessment. Disseminate information and results to help guide member state policy and actions. The overarching objective is to understand why some reefs are much healthier than others, to identify what kinds of actions have been particularly beneficial or harmful, and to vigorously communicate results in simple and straightforward terms to foster more effective conservation and management. This and subsequent reports will focus on separate biogeographic regions in a stepwise fashion and combine all of the results for a global synthesis in the coming years. We began in the wide Caribbean region because the historical data are so extensive and to refine methods of analysis before moving on to other regions. This report documents quantitative trends for Caribbean reef corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fishes based on data from 90 reef locations over the past 43 tears. This is the first report to combine all these disparate kinds of data in a single place to explore how the different major components of coral reef ecosystems interact on a broadly regional oceanic scale. We obtained data from more than 35,000 ecological surveys carried out by 78 principal investigators (PIs) and some 200 colleagues working in 34 countries, states, and territories throughout the wide Caribbean region. We conducted two workshops in Panama and Brisbane, Australia to bring together people who provided the data to assist in data quality control, analysis, and synthesis. The first workshop at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) in the Republic of Panama 29 April to 5 May, 2012 included scientists from 18 countries and territories to verify and expand the database and to conduct exploratory analyses of status and trends. Preliminary results based on the Panama workshop were presented to the DC Marine Community and Smithsonian Institution Senate of Scientists in May 2012 and at the International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) and annual ICRI meeting in Cairns, Australia in July 2012. The second workshop in Brisbane, Australia in December 2012 brought together eight coral reef scientists for more detailed data analysis and organization of results for this report and subsequent publications. Subsequent presentations to solicit comments while the report was being finalized were made in 2013-2014 at the ICRI General meeting in Belize, the biennial meeting of the Association of Island Marine Laboratories in Jamaica, the Panamerican Coral Reef Congress in Merida, Mexico, the annual meeting of he Western Society of Naturalists, and numerous universities in Costa Rica, the USA and Europe. The main body of the report is in two sections. Part I provides an overview of overall status and trends and detailed analyses of the multiple factors responsible for the decline of reef corals throughout the entire wider Caribbean region. The editors are grateful to all the people who have so generously provided data and expertise, but we assume responsibility for the many statements, conclusions and recommendations and final wording of the text. Part II provides a more detailed analysis of the status and trends of coral reef ecosystems in the 32 countries, states, and territories for which we have data. The format includes maps indicating all locations sampled, a detailed table of data sources and sites surveyed, timelines of ecologically important evens, and relevant references. Each of these reports was compiled in consultation with local experts and all those who provided data and advice are listed as authors of each country report.

Report↗
USGS2012

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗