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USGS2019

Hillslope hydrology in global change research and earth system modeling

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting global change, but they cannot explicitly resolve hillslope‐scale terrain structures that fundamentally organize water, energy, and biogeochemical stores and fluxes at subgrid scales. Here we bring together hydrologists, Critical Zone scientists, and ESM developers, to explore how hillslope structures may modulate ESM grid‐level water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. In contrast to the one‐dimensional (1‐D), 2‐ to 3‐m deep, and free‐draining soil hydrology in most ESM land models, we hypothesize that 3‐D, lateral ridge‐to‐valley flow through shallow and deep paths and insolation contrasts between sunny and shady slopes are the top two globally quantifiable organizers of water and energy (and vegetation) within an ESM grid cell. We hypothesize that these two processes are likely to impact ESM predictions where (and when) water and/or energy are limiting. We further hypothesize that, if implemented in ESM land models, these processes will increase simulated continental water storage and residence time, buffering terrestrial ecosystems against seasonal and interannual droughts. We explore efficient ways to capture these mechanisms in ESMs and identify critical knowledge gaps preventing us from scaling up hillslope to global processes. One such gap is our extremely limited knowledge of the subsurface, where water is stored (supporting vegetation) and released to stream baseflow (supporting aquatic ecosystems). We conclude with a set of organizing hypotheses and a call for global syntheses activities and model experiments to assess the impact of hillslope hydrology on global change predictions.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2023

Waterfowl recently infected with low pathogenic avian influenza exhibit reduced local movement and delayed migration

Understanding relationships between infection and wildlife movement patterns is important for predicting pathogen spread, especially for multispecies pathogens and those that can spread to humans and domestic animals, such as avian influenza viruses (AIVs). Although infection with low pathogenic AIVs is generally considered asymptomatic in wild birds, prior work has shown that influenza-infected birds occasionally delay migration and/or reduce local movements relative to their uninfected counterparts. However, most observational research to date has focused on a few species in northern Europe; given that influenza viruses are widespread globally and outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains are increasingly common, it is important to explore influenza–movement relationships across more species and regions. Here, we used telemetry data to investigate relationships between influenza infection and movement behavior in 165 individuals from four species of North American waterfowl that overwinter in California, USA. We studied both large-scale migratory and local overwintering movements and found that relationships between influenza infection and movement patterns varied among species. Northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) with antibodies to avian influenza, indicating prior infection, made migratory stopovers that averaged 12 days longer than those with no influenza antibodies. In contrast, greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ) with antibodies to avian influenza made migratory stopovers that averaged 15 days shorter than those with no antibodies. Canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) that were actively infected with influenza upon capture in the winter delayed spring migration by an average of 28 days relative to birds that were uninfected at the time of capture. At the local scale, northern pintails and canvasbacks that were actively infected with influenza used areas that were 7.6 and 4.9 times smaller than those of uninfected ducks, respectively, during the period of presumed active influenza infection. We found no evidence for an influence of active influenza infection on local movements of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ). These results suggest that avian influenza can influence waterfowl movements and illustrate that the relationships between avian influenza infection and wild bird movements are context- and species-dependent. More generally, understanding and predicting the spread of multihost pathogens requires studying multiple taxa across space and time.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2021

Heed the data gap: Guidelines for using incomplete datasets in annual stream temperature analyses

Stream temperature data are useful for deciphering watershed processes important for aquatic ecosystems. Accurately extracting signal trends from stream temperature is essential for predicting responses of environmental and ecological indicators to change. Missing data periods are common for various reasons, and pose a challenge for scientists using temperature signal analysis to support stream research and ecological management objectives. However, the sensitivity of estimated temperature signal patterns to missing data has not been thoroughly evaluated, despite the potentially large impact on interpretation. In this study, we explored the effects of simulated missing daily data on the characterization of annual water temperature signals measured at headwater sites in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the USA. For each site, we used linear regressions of sine-waves fitted to complete (365-d) and partial (7–357 consecutive missing data points) annual datasets of daily mean water temperature and computed three thermal parameters (mean, phase, and amplitude), which together can indicate thermally and ecologically influential watershed processes (e.g., depth and magnitude of groundwater discharge). Expected values (derived from complete datasets) ranged from 7.0 to 12.6 °C, 205 to 254 d, and 1.9 to 9.5 °C for annual mean, phase, and amplitude, respectively. While annual phase and amplitude could be accurately estimated (i.e., within 95–99% confidence intervals of expected values) with up to approximately two months of consecutively missing data, annual mean temperature required more complete datasets. We found that datasets with less than seven weeks of consecutively missing data enabled estimation of all annual signal parameters with reasonable accuracy (>75% probability of being within the 95–99% confidence intervals of expected values). Imputation of missing data expanded this range to approximately 20 weeks, with the greatest improvements in parameter estimation between 9 and 27 weeks of imputed missing data. However, caution should be exercised when applying this technique. For example, imputation improved the accuracy of parameter estimation for most sites, but accuracy decreased for some sites exhibiting strong groundwater influence. The timing of consecutive missing data points within a year had inconsistent effects on annual thermal parameter estimates among regions, years, and individual parameters. Utilizing sites with more than approximately seven consecutive weeks of missing data or 20 weeks of imputed data increases the probability of mischaracterization of annual stream thermal regimes. Understanding this limitation is vital for identifying the potential of streams to serve as climate refugia for ecological indicator species and effective future management of stream systems.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2024

Synoptic analysis and WRF-Chem model simulation of dust events in the southwestern United States

Dust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March-May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large-scale meteorology responsible for organizing two Southwest US dust events from two different dominant geographic locations: (a) the Colorado Plateau and (b) the northern Chihuahuan Desert. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) simulations with the Air Force Weather Agency dust emission scheme incorporating a MODIS albedo-based drag-partition was used to explore land surface-atmosphere interactions driving two dust events. We identified commonalities in their meteorological setups. The meteorological analyses revealed that Polar and Sub-tropical jet stream interaction was a common upper-level meteorological feature before each of the two dust events. When the two jet streams merged, a strong northeast-directed pressure gradient upstream and over the source areas resulted in strong near-surface winds, which lifted available dust into the atmosphere. Concurrently, a strong mid-tropospheric flow developed over the dust source areas, which transported dust to the San Juan Mountains and southern Colorado snowpack. The WRF-Chem simulations reproduced both dust events, indicating that the simulations represented the dust sources that contributed to dust-on-snow events reasonably well. The representativeness of the simulated dust emission and transport in different geographic and meteorological conditions with our use of albedo-based drag partition provides a basis for additional dust-on-snow simulations to assess the hydrologic impact in the Southwest US.

southwestern United States↗

USGS2015

Bursting the bubble of melt inclusions

Most silicate melt inclusions (MI) contain bubbles, whose significance has been alternately calculated, pondered, and ignored, but rarely if ever directly explored. Moore et al. (2015) analyze the bubbles, as well as their host glasses, and conclude that they often hold the preponderance of CO 2 in the MI. Their findings entreat future researchers to account for the presence of bubbles in MI when calculating volatile budgets, saturation pressures, and eruptive flux.

American Mineralogist↗

USGS1999

Deep Aquifer Remediation Tools (DARTs): A new technology for ground-water remediation

P otable ground-water supplies throughout the world are contaminated or threatened by advancing plumes containing radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds. Currently (1999), the most widely used method of ground-water remediation is a combination of extraction, ex-situ treatment, and discharge of the treated water, commonly known as pump and treat. Pump-and-treat methods are costly and often ineffective in meeting long-term protection standards (Travis and Doty, 1990; Gillham and Burris, 1992; National Research Council, 1994). This fact sheet describes a new and potentially cost-effective technology for removal of organic and inorganic contaminants from ground water. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is currently exploring the possibilities of obtaining a U.S. Patent for this technology.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2008

Scientific objectives of the Gulf of Mexico gas hydrate JIP leg II drilling

The Gulf of Mexico Methane Hydrate Joint Industry Project (JIP) has been performing research on marine gas hydrates since 2001 and is sponsored by both the JIP members and the U.S. Department of Energy. In 2005, the JIP drilled the Atwater Valley and Keathley Canyon exploration blocks in the Gulf of Mexico to acquire downhole logs and recover cores in silt- and clay-dominated sediments interpreted to contain gas hydrate based on analysis of existing 3-D seismic data prior to drilling. The new 2007-2009 phase of logging and coring, which is described in this paper, will concentrate on gas hydrate-bearing sands in the Alaminos Canyon, Green Canyon, and Walker Ridge protraction areas. Locations were selected to target higher permeability, coarser-grained lithologies (e.g., sands) that have the potential for hosting high saturations of gas hydrate and to assist the U.S. Minerals Management Service with its assessment of gas hydrate resources in the Gulf of Mexico. This paper discusses the scientific objectives for drilling during the upcoming campaign and presents the results from analyzing existing seismic and well log data as part of the site selection process. Alaminos Canyon 818 has the most complete data set of the selected blocks, with both seismic data and comprehensive downhole log data consistent with the occurrence of gas hydrate-bearing sands. Preliminary analyses suggest that the Frio sandstone just above the base of the gas hydrate stability zone may have up to 80% of the available sediment pore space occupied by gas hydrate. The proposed sites in the Green Canyon and Walker Ridge areas are also interpreted to have gas hydrate-bearing sands near the base of the gas hydrate stability zone, but the choice of specific drill sites is not yet complete. The Green Canyon site coincides with a 4-way closure within a Pleistocene sand unit in an area of strong gas flux just south of the Sigsbee Escarpment. The Walker Ridge site is characterized by a sand-prone sedimentary section that rises stratigraphically across the base of the gas hydrate stability zone and that has seismic indicators of gas hydrate.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2006

Classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid analyses of the distribution of ponderosa pine in the western USA

Aim? Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson & C. Lawson) is an economically and ecologically important conifer that has a wide geographic range in the western USA, but is mostly absent from the geographic centre of its distribution - the Great Basin and adjoining mountain ranges. Much of its modern range was achieved by migration of geographically distinct Sierra Nevada (P. ponderosa var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. ponderosa var. scopulorum) varieties in the last 10,000 years. Previous research has confirmed genetic differences between the two varieties, and measurable genetic exchange occurs where their ranges now overlap in western Montana. A variety of approaches in bioclimatic modelling is required to explore the ecological differences between these varieties and their implications for historical biogeography and impending changes in western landscapes. Location? Western USA. Methods? We used a classification tree analysis and a minimum-volume ellipsoid as models to explain the broad patterns of distribution of ponderosa pine in modern environments using climatic and edaphic variables. Most biogeographical modelling assumes that the target group represents a single, ecologically uniform taxonomic population. Classification tree analysis does not require this assumption because it allows the creation of pathways that predict multiple positive and negative outcomes. Thus, classification tree analysis can be used to test the ecological uniformity of the species. In addition, a multidimensional ellipsoid was constructed to describe the niche of each variety of ponderosa pine, and distances from the niche were calculated and mapped on a 4-km grid for each ecological variable. Results? The resulting classification tree identified three dominant pathways predicting ponderosa pine presence. Two of these three pathways correspond roughly to the distribution of var. ponderosa, and the third pathway generally corresponds to the distribution of var. scopulorum. The classification tree and minimum-volume ellipsoid model show that both varieties have very similar temperature limitations, although var. ponderosa is more limited by the temperature extremes of the continental interior. The precipitation limitations of the two varieties are seasonally different, with var. ponderosa requiring significant winter moisture and var. scopulorum requiring significant summer moisture. Great Basin mountain ranges are too cold at higher elevations to support either variety of ponderosa pine, and at lower elevations are too dry in summer for var. scopulorum and too dry in winter for var. ponderosa. Main conclusions? The classification tree analysis indicates that var. ponderosa is ecologically as well as genetically distinct from var. scopulorum. Ecological differences may maintain genetic separation in spite of a limited zone of introgression between the two varieties in western Montana. Two hypotheses about past and future movements of ponderosa pine emerge from our analyses. The first hypothesis is that, during the last glacial period, colder and/or drier summers truncated most of the range of var. scopulorum in the central Rockies, but had less dramatic effects on the more maritime and winter-wet distribution of var. ponderosa. The second hypothesis is that, all other factors held constant, increasing summer temperatures in the future should produce changes in the distribution of var. scopulorum that are likely to involve range expansions in the central Rockies with the warming of mountain ranges currently too cold but sufficiently wet in summer for var. scopulorum. Finally, our results underscore the growing need to focus on genotypes in biogeographical modelling and ecological forecasting.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2019

Intermountain west drought social science synthesis working group: Report to the National Climate Adaptation Science Center

Throughout the Intermountain West, there has been significant investment in understanding how social factors influence manager and citizen experiences of drought in particular locations. Yet there is still a gap in knowledge of how human dimensions of drought impacts, planning, and resilience are similar and different across cases and regions. Building on the natural science understanding developed by the USGS’ various ecological drought projects as well as a range of other place-based social science case studies of drought and its impacts, this project explored human dimensions of ecological drought across the intermountain west from a comparative, regional perspective. The Working Group brought together agency and university experts in the field of drought social science, including researchers affiliated with the North Central and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (USGS), Western Water Assessment (a NOAA RISA program), the Northern Plains Climate Hub (USDA), and the USGS-supported SNAPP Ecological Drought Working Group. The group held three virtual meeting during Spring 2018 in preparation for an extended in-person workshop in June 2018 in Fort Collins, CO, followed by monthly calls to finalize products. The group’s objectives were to (1) integrate insights from existing social science studies of drought to identify commonalities and trends that generalize across cases while simultaneously accounting for the complexity experienced in particular places by individual decision makers, (2) develop a common lexicon and analytic framework for understanding drought across the Intermountain West from a social-ecological systems perspective, (3) identify emergent research themes, questions, and needs, (4) consider strategies for social scientists to contribute to drought management, (5) facilitate coordination among federal and university researchers for future collaborative activities, and (6) develop a typology of drought decision making that captured group insights. Project outputs included two conference sessions, a typology manuscript to be submitted by the end of FY19, and the conceptual framing of a rapid assessment methodology that was subsequently developed into a standalone project.

Cooperator Report↗

USGS2023

Evaluate propagation efforts and determine dispersal patterns for Quadrula fragosa from tagged, artificially infested host fish (Ictalurus punctatus) in the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway (SACN)

The St. Croix National Scenic Riverway (SACN) has been the site of propagation and restoration efforts for two federally endangered unionid mussels: Higgins’ Eye, Lampsilis higginsii and Winged Mapleleaf (WML), Quadrula fragosa. Since about 2000, government agencies have collaboratively developed techniques to successfully propagate Higgins’ Eye and reintroduce the captive-reared subadult mussels into rehabilitated habitats in the upper Mississippi River Basin and several tributaries, including the SACN. However, propagation efforts for the WML have had limited success from 2003 to present. The population of WML in the SACN has high value because it is physically isolated and genetically distinct from four southern populations, and it is the only known self-sustaining population within the upper Mississippi River. Unionids have a complex reproductive cycle that includes a parasitic larval stage (glochidia) that requires species-specific fish hosts. WML are one of the few species that are fall, short-term (~6 weeks) brooders—brooding begins at end of August. In the SACN, Channel Catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ) are the only known host for WML and glochidia are assumed to overwinter on their host fish and detach the following spring. Research has shown that holding hatchery reared channel catfish that are infested with WML glochidia in cages, either in situ or in a hatchery, over winter has been a challenge due to high fish mortality; rearing juveniles after transformation has also resulted in high mortality rates and juvenile loss (Wege et al. 2007). The importance of the overwintering parasitic period and the overall health of the host fish for successful transformation of juvenile WML is unknown, but these key criteria could play an important role in successful propagation efforts. This research has three objectives: (1) compile historic data from >14 years of Q. fragosa propagation efforts into a searchable database to identify potential knowledge gaps that could be limiting its success, (2) explore in situ and ex situ propagation techniques to optimize production of Q. fragosa juveniles, and (3) characterize the movement pattern of Channel Catfish that are artificially inoculated with the SACN strain of Q. fragosa to identify potential juvenile release survey locations in future years.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Evaluate propagation efforts and determine dispersal patterns for Quadrula fragosa from tagged, artificially infested host fish (Ictalurus punctatus) in the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway (SACN)

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Well logging in ground‐water hydrology

In 1966 more than 50 billion gallons of water was pumped daily from an estimated 10 to 15 million water wells in the United States. This was more than one‐sixth of the national withdrawal of water . On the basis of past rates of increase, a much greater future use of ground water is suggested. Our annual investment in water wells is one‐half to three‐quarter billion dollars, not including pumps and plumbing. In 1964 approximately 436,000 new wells were drilled; however, less than 1 percent of these wells were logged by any geophysical means. The application of _ge_o.phy.sical well logging to ground‐water hydrology is comparable to its use in petroleum exploration in the 1930's; however, we can take advantage of equipment and interpretation techniques developed in the oil industry that are available now for use in ground‐water investigations. Although most petroleum well logging techniques may be utilized in hydrology ; modifications in equipment and interpretation are necessary because of basic economic and environmental differences between petroleum and ground‐water evaluation. If logging is to be widely applied to ground‐water exploration and evaluation, the expense of equipment and services must be reduced. Fortunately, this can be accomplished, because most water wells are not as deep as oil wells and the temperatures and pressures are lower. The Water Resources Division of the U. S. Geological Survey is conducting research on the application of borehole geophysics to ground‐water hydrology . The following logging devices are utilized in the evaluation of ground‐water environments: spontaneous potential, resistivity, gamma, gamma‐gamma, neutron, radioactive tracer, flowmeter, caliper, fluid resistivity, gradient and differential temperature, and sonic velocity. Lightweight logging sondes and control modules are operated by one man, either on a vehicle‐mounted 6,000‐foot logger or on a suitcase‐mounted 500‐foot logger. An inexpensive magnetic tape system has been developed and is used routinely for log recording and playback. If commercial well logging service is to be widely used in ground‐water exploration and development, water well contractors, and State and municipal agencies must be educated on the advantages of obtaining more information from each hole drilled. It will be necessary also to demonstrate how well logging can provide much of this information. In addition, the well logging industry must adapt their equipment and services to the requirements of ground‐water hydrology . The need for additional logging capability in this field exists at the present time and is expected to increase. Hopefully industry will be able to fill the gap.

Groundwater↗

USGS2017

Steady state fractionation of heavy noble gas isotopes in a deep unsaturated zone

To explore steady state fractionation processes in the unsaturated zone (UZ), we measured argon, krypton, and xenon isotope ratios throughout a ∼110 m deep UZ at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) in Nevada, USA. Prior work has suggested that gravitational settling should create a nearly linear increase in heavy-to-light isotope ratios toward the bottom of stagnant air columns in porous media. Our high-precision measurements revealed a binary mixture between (1) expected steady state isotopic compositions and (2) unfractionated atmospheric air. We hypothesize that the presence of an unsealed pipe connecting the surface to the water table allowed for direct inflow of surface air in response to extensive UZ gas sampling prior to our first (2015) measurements. Observed isotopic resettling in deep UZ samples collected a year later, after sealing the pipe, supports this interpretation. Data and modeling each suggest that the strong influence of gravitational settling and weaker influences of thermal diffusion and fluxes of CO 2 and water vapor accurately describe steady state isotopic fractionation of argon, krypton, and xenon within the UZ. The data confirm that heavy noble gas isotopes are sensitive indicators of UZ depth. Based on this finding, we outline a potential inverse approach to quantify past water table depths from noble gas isotope measurements in paleogroundwater, after accounting for fractionation during dissolution of UZ air and bubbles.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Landscape matters: Predicting the biogeochemical effects of permafrost thaw on aquatic networks with a state factor approach

Permafrost thaw has been widely observed to alter the biogeochemistry of recipient aquatic ecosystems. However, research from various regions has shown considerable variation in effect. In this paper, we propose a state factor approach to predict the release and transport of materials from permafrost through aquatic networks. Inspired by Hans Jenny's seminal description of soil‐forming factors, and based on the growing body of research on the subject, we propose that a series of state factors—including relief, ice content, permafrost extent, and parent material—will constrain and direct the biogeochemical effect of thaw over time. We explore state‐factor‐driven variation in thaw response using a series of case studies from diverse regions of the permafrost‐affected north, and also describe unique scaling considerations related to the mobile and integrative nature of aquatic networks. While our cross‐system review found coherent responses to thaw for some biogeochemical constituents, such as nutrients, others, such as dissolved organics and particles, were much more variable in their response. We suggest that targeted, hypothesis‐driven investigation of the effects of state factor variation will bolster our ability to predict the biogeochemical effects of thaw across diverse and rapidly changing northern landscapes.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes↗

USGS2001

Lithodiversity and its spatial association with metallic mineral sites, Great Basin of Nevada

Geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used to investigate the spatial association between metallic mineral sites and lithodiversity in Nevada. Mineral site data sets include various size and type subsets of about 5,500 metal-bearing occurrences and deposits. Lithodiversity was calculated by counting the number of unique geological map units within four sizes of square-shaped sample neighborhoods (2.5-by-2.5, 5-by-5, 10-by-10, and 20-by-20 km) on three different scales of geological maps (national, 1:2,500,000; state, 1:500,000; county, 1:250,000). The spatial association between mineral sites and lithodiversity was observed to increase with increasing lithodiversity. This relationship is consistent for (1) both basin-range and range-only regions, (2) four sizes of sample neighborhoods, (3) various mineral site subsets, (4) the three scales of geological maps, and (5) areas not covered by large-scale maps. A map scale of 1:500,000 and lithodiversity sampling neighborhood of 5-by-5 km was determined to best describe the association. Positive associations occurred for areas having >3 geological map units per neighborhood, with the strongest observed at approximately >7 units. Areas in Nevada with more than three geological map units per 5-by-5 km neighborhood contain more mineral sites than would be expected resulting from chance. High lithodiversity likely reflects the occurrence of complex structural, stratigraphic, and intrusive relationships that are thought to control, focus, localize, or expose mineralization. The application of lithodiversity measurements to areas that are not well explored may help delineate regional-scale exploration targets and provide GIS-supported mineral resource assessment and exploration activity another method that makes use of widely available geological map data.

Nevada↗

USGS1999

Examining risk in mineral exploration

Successful mineral exploration strategy requires identification of some of the risk sources and considering them in the decision-making process so that controllable risk can be reduced. Risk is defined as chance of failure or loss. Exploration is an economic activity involving risk and uncertainty, so risk also must be defined in an economic context. Risk reduction can be addressed in three fundamental ways: (1) increasing the number of examinations; (2) increasing success probabilities; and (3) changing success probabilities per test by learning. These provide the framework for examining exploration risk. First, the number of prospects examined is increased, such as by joint venturing, thereby reducing chance of gambler's ruin . Second, success probability is increased by exploring for deposit types more likely to be economic, such as those with a high proportion of world-class deposits. For example, in looking for 100+ ton (>3 million oz) Au deposits, porphyry Cu-Au, or epithermal quartz alunite Au types require examining fewer deposits than Comstock epithermal vein and most other deposit types. For porphyry copper exploration, a strong positive relationship between area of sulfide minerals and deposits' contained Cu can be used to reduce exploration risk by only examining large sulfide systems. In some situations, success probabilities can be increased by examining certain geologic environments. Only 8% of kuroko massive sulfide deposits are world class, but success chances can be increased to about 15% by looking in settings containing sediments and rhyolitic rocks. It is possible to reduce risk of loss during mining by sequentially developing and expanding a mine—thus reducing capital exposed at early stages and reducing present value of risked capital. Because this strategy is easier to apply in some deposit types than in others, the strategy can affect deposit types sought. Third, risk is reduced by using prior information and by changing the independence of trials assumption, that is, by learning. Bayes' formula is used to change the probability of existence of the deposit sought on the basis of successive exploration stages. Perhaps the most important way to reduce exploration risk is to employ personnel with the appropriate experience and yet who are learning.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2016

Overwintering strategies of migratory birds: a novel approach for estimating seasonal movement patterns of residents and transients

Our understanding of movement patterns in wildlife populations has played an important role in current ecological knowledge and can inform landscape conservation decisions. Direct measures of movement can be obtained using marked individuals, but this requires tracking individuals across a landscape or multiple sites. We demonstrate how movements can be estimated indirectly using single-site, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) data with a multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model (MSORD-SU). We treat residence and transience as two phenotypic states of overwintering migrants and use time- and state-dependent probabilities of site entry and persistence as indirect measures of movement. We applied the MSORD-SU to data on eight species of overwintering Neotropical birds collected in 14 countries between 2002 and 2011. In addition to entry and persistence probabilities, we estimated the proportions of residents at a study site and mean residence times. We identified overwintering movement patterns and residence times that contrasted with prior categorizations of territoriality. Most species showed an evidence of residents entering sites at multiple time intervals, with transients tending to enter between peak resident movement times. Persistence and the proportion of residents varied by latitude, but were not always positively correlated for a given species. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that migratory songbirds commonly move among habitats during the overwintering period. Substantial proportions of populations appear to be comprised of transient individuals, and residents tend to persist at specific sites for relatively short periods of time. This information on persistence and movement patterns should be explored for specific habitats to guide landscape management on the wintering grounds, such as determining which habitats are conserved or restored as part of certification programmes of tropical agroforestry crops. We suggest that research and conservation efforts on Neotropical migrant songbirds focus on identifying landscape configurations and regional habitat networks that support these diverse overwintering strategies to secure full life cycle conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human-induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human-induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field-sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America.

Global Change Biology↗