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A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗

Deep Learning as a tool to forecast hydrologic response for landslide-prone hillslopes

Empirical thresholds for landslide warning systems have benefitted from the incorporation of soil‐hydrologic monitoring data, but the mechanistic basis for their predictive capabilities is limited. Although physically based hydrologic models can accurately simulate changes in soil moisture and pore pressure that promote landslides, their utility is restricted by high computational costs and nonunique parameterization issues. We construct a deep learning model using soil moisture, pore pressure, and rainfall monitoring data acquired from landslide‐prone hillslopes in Oregon, USA, to predict the timing and magnitude of hydrologic response at multiple soil depths for 36‐hr intervals. We find that observation records as short as 6 months are sufficient for accurate predictions, and our model captures hydrologic response for high‐intensity rainfall events even when those storm types are excluded from model training. We conclude that machine learning can provide an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to empirical methods or physical modeling for landslide hazard warning.

Oregon↗

Submarine landslides

Landslides are common on inclined areas of the seafloor, particularly in environments where weak geologic materials such as rapidly deposited, finegrained sediment or fractured rock are subjected to strong environmental stresses such as earthquakes, large storm waves, and high internal pore pressures. Submarine landslides can involve huge amounts of material and can move great distances: slide volumes as large as 20,000 km3 and runout distances in excess of 140 km have been reported. They occur at locations where the downslope component of stress exceeds the resisting stress, causing movement along one or several concave to planar rupture surfaces. Some recent slides that originated nearshore and retrogressed back across the shoreline were conspicuous by their direct impact on human life and activities. Most known slides, however, occurred far from land in prehistoric time and were discovered by noting distinct to subtle characteristics, such as headwall scarps and displaced sediment or rock masses, on acoustic-reflection profiles and side-scan sonar images. Submarine landslides can be analyzed using the same mechanics principles as are used for occurrences on land. However, some loading mechanisms are unique, for example, storm waves, and some, such as earthquakes, can have greater impact. The potential for limited-deformation landslides to transform into sediment flows that can travel exceedingly long distances is related to the density of the slope-forming material and the amount of shear strength that is lost when the slope fails.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

Prodigious submarine landslides on the Hawaiian Ridge

The extensive area covered by major submarine mass wasting deposits on or near the Hawaiian Ridge has been delimited by systematic mapping of the Hawaiian exclusive economic zone using the side‐looking sonar system GLORIA. These surveys show that slumps and debris avalanche deposits are exposed over about 100,000 km 2 of the ridge and adjacent seafloor from Kauai to Hawaii, covering an area more than 5 times the land area of the islands. Some of the individual debris avalanches are more than 200 km long and about 5000 km 3 in volume, ranking them among the largest on Earth. The slope failures that produce these deposits begin early in the history of individual volcanoes when they are small submarine seamounts, culminate near the end of subaerial shield building, and apparently continue long after dormancy. Consequently, landslide debris is an important element in the internal structure of the volcanoes. The dynamic behavior of the volcanoes can be modulated by slope failure, and the structural features of the landslides are related to elements of the volcanoes including rift zones and fault systems. The landslides are of two general types, slumps and debris avalanches. The slumps are slow moving, wide (up to 110 km), and thick (about 10 km) with transverse blocky ridges and steep toes. The debris avalanches are fast moving, long (up to 230 km) compared to width, and thinner (0.05–2 km); they commonly have a well‐defined amphitheater at their head and hummocky terrain in the lower part. Oceanic disturbance caused by rapid emplacement of debris avalanches may have produced high‐level wave deposits (such as the 365‐m elevation Hulopoe Gravel on Lanai) that are found on several islands. Most present‐day submarine canyons were originally carved subaerially in the upper parts of debris avalanches. Subaerial canyon cutting was apparently promoted by the recently steepened and stripped slopes of the landslide amphitheaters.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Discussion of “Case study: Oso, Washington, landslide of March 22, 2014-Material properties and failure mechanism” by Timothy D. Stark, Ahmed K. Baghdady, Oldrich Hungr, and Jordan Aaron

The original paper discusses factors that may have contributed to the occurrence and long runout of a disastrous landslide near the community of Oso, Washington, on March 22, 2014. The paper reinforces a prior finding that the long runout likely resulted from liquefaction of wet colluvium that was rapidly loaded by landslide debris impinging from upslope ( Iverson et al. 2015 ). However, the original paper proposes a landslide geometry and chronology that differ from those presented in previous reports, and these differences have implications for interpreting the landslide’s mechanics. The paper also includes factual errors as well as misrepresentations that result from selective inclusion and exclusion of findings previously reported by others. The purposes of this discussion are to place the original paper in context and to rectify some of its mistakes.

Washington↗

Quantitative coseismic and precipitation-induced landslide risk mapping for the country of Lebanon

Quantitative landslide risk assessment is a key step in creating appropriate land use policies. The forced migration of those displaced by recent events in Syria has highlighted the need for studies to guide humanitarian aid and resettlement policies. In 2011, armed conflict in the region precipitated the largest refugee crisis in a generation. Over 1.5 million displaced Syrians now reside in Lebanon, rapidly changing the population distribution in geomorphically-active areas of the country. We use a multi-step process to quantitatively assess the landslide risk profile of Lebanon throughout the ongoing Syrian conflict. First, mode-specific geotechnical models are utilized to assess the individual hazard contributions of a suite of triggering scenarios and types of landslides appropriate to the varied terrain of Lebanon. Second, vulnerability estimates and population data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) are combined to produce scenario-specific risk. Finally, risk data is aggregated to create a comprehensive landslide risk profile for Syrian refugees in Lebanon and compared to that of the pre-conflict Lebanese population.

Conference Paper↗

The role of shear and tensile failure in dynamically triggered landslides

Dynamic stresses generated by earthquakes can trigger landslides. Current methods of landslide analysis such as pseudo-static analysis and Newmark's method focus on the effects of earthquake accelerations on the landslide mass to characterize dynamic landslide behaviour. One limitation of these methods is their use Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria, which only accounts for shear failure, but the role of tensile failure is not accounted for. We develop a limit-equilibrium model to investigate the dynamic stresses generated by a given ground motion due to a plane wave and use this model to assess the role of shear and tensile failure in the initiation of slope instability. We do so by incorporating a modified Griffith failure envelope, which combines shear and tensile failure into a single criterion. Tests of dynamic stresses in both homogeneous and layered slopes demonstrate that two modes of failure exist, tensile failure in the uppermost meters of a slope and shear failure at greater depth. Further, we derive equations that express the dynamic stress in the near-surface in the acceleration measured at the surface. These equations are used to approximately define the depth range for each mechanism of failure. The depths at which these failure mechanisms occur suggest that shear and tensile failure might collaborate in generating slope failure. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

A large landslide on Mars

A large landslide deposit on the south wall of Gangis Chasma contains at least 100 billion m 3 of material that moved 60 km across the trough floor at a speed of more than 100 km/hr. The deposit consists of slump blocks at the head, hummocky material farther out, and a vast apron of longitudinally ridged material extending to the toe. The landslide deposit resembles many terrestrial ones but is much larger, and differs from most in having longitudinal rather than transverse ridges on its surface. However, some terrestrial landslides also have longitudinal ridges, particularly those in Alaska that traveled long distances over glacial ice and thus were highly efficient. In order to explain this high efficiency, two possible mechanisms of emplacement are singled out. The first involves a sliding motion on a cushion of air; on Mars, this implies a once much denser atmosphere, or the release of a gas, possibly steam. The second mechanism involves a flow motion of debris that is lubricated by some water; on Mars, the water may have come from ice in the source rock. An analysis of the possible causes for the Martian slide shows that the Martian trough walls are highly susceptible to sliding, and that the landslide may have been triggered by a Mars quake.

GSA Bulletin↗

Preparation and use of isopleth maps of landslide deposits

Isopleth maps derived from landslide inventory maps generalize and quantify the areal distribution of landslide deposits in contour form and may be uniquely useful for some types of regional planning. The isopleth format permits incorporation of landslide information with other quantified map data in the preparation of slope stability maps. The isopleth map of landslide deposits in San Mateo County, California (scale 1:300,000), serves as an example of this technique.

California↗

The variability of root cohesion as an influence on shallow landslide susceptibility in the Oregon Coast Range

Decades of quantitative measurement indicate that roots can mechanically reinforce shallow soils in forested landscapes. Forests, however, have variations in vegetation species and age which can dominate the local stability of landslide-initiation sites. To assess the influence of this variability on root cohesion we examined scarps of landslides triggered during large storms in February and November of 1996 in the Oregon Coast Range and hand-dug soil pits on stable ground. At 41 sites we estimated the cohesive reinforcement to soil due to roots by determining the tensile strength, species, depth, orientation, relative health, and the density of roots 1 mm in diameter within a measured soil area. We found that median lateral root cohesion ranges from 6.8–23.2 kPa in industrial forests with significant understory and deciduous vegetation to 25.6–94.3 kPa in natural forests dominated by coniferous vegetation. Lateral root cohesion in clearcuts is uniformly 10 kPa. Some 100-year-old industrial forests have species compositions, lateral root cohesion, and root diameters that more closely resemble 10-year-old clearcuts than natural forests. As such, the influence of root cohesion variability on landslide susceptibility cannot be determined solely from broad age classifications or extrapolated from the presence of one species of vegetation. Furthermore, the anthropogenic disturbance legacy modifies root cohesion for at least a century and should be considered when comparing contemporary landslide rates from industrial forests with geologic background rates.

Oregon↗

Landslides triggered by the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking

The 2002 M7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake triggered thousands of landslides, primarily rock falls and rock slides, that ranged in volume from rock falls of a few cubic meters to rock avalanches having volumes as great as 15 ?? 106 m3. The pattern of landsliding was unusual; the number of slides was less than expected for an earthquake of this magnitude, and the landslides were concentrated in a narrow zone 30-km wide that straddled the fault rupture over its entire 300-km length. The large rock avalanches all clustered along the western third of the rupture zone where acceleration levels and ground-shaking frequencies are thought to have been the highest. Inferences about near-field strong shaking characteristics drawn from the interpretation of the landslide distribution are consistent with results of recent inversion modeling that indicate high-frequency energy generation was greatest in the western part of the fault rupture zone and decreased markedly to the east. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Landslides triggered by the 2004 Niigata Ken Chuetsu, Japan, earthquake

The Niigata Ken Chuetsu earthquake triggered a vast number of lanslides in the epicentral region. Landslide concentrations were among the highest ever measured after an earthquake, and most of the triggered landslides were relatively shallow failures parallel to the steep slope faces. The dense concentration of landslides can be attributed to steep local topography in relatively weak geologic units, adverse hydrologic conditions caused by significant antecedent rainfall, and very strong shaking. Many of the landslides could be discerned from high-resolution satellite imagery acquired immediately after the earthquake. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Influence of surface-normal ground acceleration on the initiation of the Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan landslide during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake triggered numerous landslides throughout a large area in the Central Range, to the east, southeast, and south of the fault rupture. Among them are two large rock avalanches, at Tsaoling and at Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan. At Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan, the entire thickness (30-50 m) of the Miocene Changhukeng Shale over an area of 1 km2 slid down its bedding plane for a distance of about 1 km. Initial movement of the landslide was nearly purely translational. We investigate the effect of surface-normal acceleration on the initiation of the Jih-Feng-Erh-Shan landslide using a block slide model. We show that this acceleration, currently not considered by dynamic slope-stability analysis methods, significantly influences the initiation of the landslide.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

lsforce: A Python-based single-force seismic inversion framework for massive landslides

We present an open‐source Python package, lsforce, for performing single‐force source inversions of long‐period (tens to hundreds of seconds) seismic signals. Although the software is designed primarily for landslides, it can be used for any single‐force seismic source. The package allows users to produce estimates of the three‐component time series of forces exerted on the Earth by a landslide with postprocessing options to estimate the trajectory of its center of mass. Green’s functions for a user‐selected 1D Earth model are obtained automatically from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Synthetics Engine webservice or can be computed for custom 1D Earth models using Computer Programs in Seismology. lsforce implements the two most commonly used source parameterizations: a fully flexible, high‐resolution approach and a more stable but lower‐resolution method of overlapping triangle sources. Regularization options include a blended zeroth‐, first‐, and second‐order semiautomated Tikhonov regularization scheme, as well as additional optional constraints on start times, end times, and on the sum of forces. Uncertainty due to data selection can be assessed using either a leave‐one‐out approach or a modified jackknife technique that randomly excludes subsets of the data for multiple re‐inversions. Numerous built‐in plotting methods allow for easy quality control and assessment of results. In this article, we briefly outline the theory and methodology, describe our implementation, and demonstrate the usage of lsforce using the well‐studied 28 June 2016 Lamplugh rock avalanche in Alaska. Despite the rapidly increasing prevalence of landslide single‐force inversions in the landslide and seismology literature over the past decade, to our knowledge this is the first open‐source code for performing such inversions.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Influence of near-surface stratigraphy on coastal landslides at Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Lake Michigan, USA

Lake-level change and landslides are primary controls on the development of coastal environments along the coast of northeastern Lake Michigan. The late Quaternary geology of Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore was examined with high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and boreholes. Based on sequence-stratigraphic principles, this study recognizes ten stratigraphic units and three major unconformities that were formed by late Pleistocene glaciation and postglacial lake-level changes. Locally high sediment supply, and reworking by two regressions and a transgression have produced a complex stratigraphy that is prone to episodic failure. In 1995, a large landslide deposited approximately 1 million m3 of sediment on the lake floor. The highly deformed landslide deposits, up to 18 m thick, extend 3-4 km offshore and unconformably overlie well-stratified glacial and lacustrine sediment. The landslide-prone bluff is underlain by channel-fill deposits that are oriented nearly perpendicular to the shoreline. The paleochannels are at least 10 m deep and 400 m wide and probably represent stream incision during a lake-level lowstand about 10.3 ka B.P. The channels filled with sediment during the subsequent transgression and lake-level highstand, which climaxed about 4.5 ka B.P. As lake level fell from the highstand, the formation of beach ridges and sand dunes sealed off the channel and isolated a small inland lake (Glen Lake), which lies 5 m above the level of Lake Michigan and may be a source of piped groundwater. Our hypothesis is that the paleochannels act as conduits for pore water flow, and thereby locally reduce soil strength and promote slope failure.

Michigan↗

Economic Losses and Fatalities Due to Landslides

Annual losses in the United States, Japan, Italy, and India have been estimated at 1 billion or more each. During the period 1971-74, nearly 600 people per year were killed by landslides worldwide; about 90 percent of these deaths occurred in the Circum-Pacific region. From 1967-82, 150 people per year died in Japan as a result of slope failures. In the United States, the number of landslide-related fatalities per year exceeds 25. Japan leads other nations in development of comprehensive programs to reduce economic losses and fatalities due to landslides. The United States recently has proposed a national landslide hazard reduction program.

Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologi↗

Field and laboratory hydraulic characterization of landslide-prone soils in the Oregon Coast Range and implications for hydrologic simulation

Unsaturated zone flow processes are an important focus of landslide hazard estimation. Differences in soil hydraulic behavior between wetting and drying conditions (i.e., hydraulic hysteresis) may be important in landslide triggering. Hydraulic hysteresis can complicate soil hydraulic parameter estimates and impact prediction capability. This investigation focused on hydraulic property estimation for soil in a landslide‐prone area where the relative importance of hysteresis is unclear. Laboratory measurements of soil‐water retention from field soils in the Oregon Coast Range during wetting and drying show that pronounced hydraulic hysteresis is present. In contrast, a 4‐yr field data record of pore‐water pressure and soil‐water content from multiple soil pits at the same landslide‐prone area shows relatively minor hydraulic hysteresis compared with the laboratory estimates. Simulated subsurface hydrologic response parameterized using estimates from field data more closely matched hydrologic observations relative to model parameterization based on laboratory analysis of repacked soil samples. Our results suggest that (i) unsaturated hydraulic parameter estimates based on in situ field data, as opposed to laboratory measurements alone, may lead to more accurate simulation of the hydrologic response to rainfall, (ii) in situ data of soil‐water retention may need to include values at both high suctions and near saturation to improve estimates of soil hydraulic parameters for slope failure applications, and (iii) laboratory measurements of soil‐water retention made under dynamic conditions may overestimate hydraulic hysteresis.

Oregon↗

Landslides in Minnesota

Landslides in Minnesota have caused loss of life, damaged infrastructure, and negatively affected Minnesota’s natural resources. Landslides increase the amount of sediment contributed to lakes and rivers, with negative consequences for water quality and aquatic habitats. Recent mapping reveals that landslide susceptible areas within Minnesota primarily occur on steep slopes adjacent to rivers, lakes, and transportation corridors. Local variation in landslide susceptibility is related to the underlying geology and glacial history.

Minnesota↗