Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Forest Ecosystems”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources

Canopy structure and atmospheric flows in relation to the δ13C of respired CO 2 in a subalpine coniferous forest

Stable isotopes provide insight into ecosystem carbon cycling, plant physiological processes, atmospheric boundary-layer dynamics, and are useful for the integration of processes over multiple scales. Of particular interest is the carbon isotope content (δ 13 C) of nocturnal ecosystem-respired CO 2 ( δ R ). Recent advances in technology have made it possible to continuously examine the variation in δ R within a forest canopy over relatively long time-scales (months–years). We used tunable diode laser spectroscopy to examine δ R at within- and below-canopy spatial locations in a Colorado subalpine forest (the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site). We found a systematic pattern of increased δ R within the forest canopy ( δ R-c ) compared to that near the ground ( δ R-g ). Values of δ R-c were weakly correlated with the previous day's mean maximum daytime vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Conversely, there was a negative but still weak correlation between δ R-g and time-lagged (0–5 days) daily mean soil moisture. The topography and presence of sustained nightly drainage flows at the Niwot Ridge forest site suggests that, on nights with stable atmospheric conditions, there is little mixing of air near the ground with that in the canopy. Atmospheric stability was assessed using thresholds of friction velocity, stability above the canopy, and bulk Richardson number within the canopy. When we selectively calculated δ R-g and δ R-c by removing time periods when ground and canopy air were well mixed, we found stronger correlations between δ R-c and VPD, and δ R-g and soil moisture. This suggests that there may be fundamental differences in the environmental controls on δ R at sub-canopy spatial scales. These results may help explain the wide variance observed in the correlation of δ R with different environmental parameters in other studies.

Colorado↗

Bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types as an alternative to species distribution models for projecting plant species shifts under changing climates

Land managers need new tools for planning novel futures due to climate change. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used extensively to predict future distributions of species under different climates, but their map products are often too coarse for fine-scale operational use. In this study we developed a flexible, efficient, and robust method for mapping current and future distributions and abundances of vegetation species and communities at the fine spatial resolutions that are germane to land management. First, we mapped Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) using conventional statistical modeling techniques (Random Forests) that used bioclimatic ecosystem process and climate variables as predictors. We obtained over 50% accuracy across 13 mapped PVTs for our study area. We then applied future climate projections as climate input to the Random Forest model to generate future PVT maps, and used field data describing the occurrence of tree and non-tree species in each PVT category to model and map species distribution for current and future climate. These maps were then compared to two previous SDM mapping efforts with over 80% agreement and equivalent accuracy. Because PVTs represent the biophysical potential of the landscape to support vegetation communities as opposed to the vegetation that currently exists, they can be readily linked to climate forecasts and correlated with other, climate-sensitive ecological processes significant in land management, such as fire regimes and site productivity.

Montana↗

Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change

Mangrove forests dominate in the intertidal zones of the tropical extent of the coast about the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Global climate change forecasts suggest that these coastal forests will be among those ecosystems most immediately threatened by projected increases in sea level and hurricanes. The interactive effects of environmental conditions that prevail in these forests and the changes that are likely to occur in a global warming climate may lead to major shifts in forest composition, structure, and function of mangrove ecosystems.

Florida↗

Forest management under megadrought: Urgent actions needed at finer-scale and higher intensity

Drought and warming increasingly are causing widespread tree die-offs and extreme wildfires. Forest managers are struggling to improve anticipatory forest management practices given more frequent, extensive, and severe wildfire and tree die-off events triggered by “hotter drought”—drought under warmer than historical conditions. Of even greater concern is the increasing probability of multi-year droughts, or “megadroughts”—persistent droughts that span years to decades, and that under a still-warming climate, will also be hotter than historical norms. Megadroughts under warmer temperatures are disconcerting because of their potential to trigger more severe forest die-off, fire cycles, pathogens, and insect outbreaks. In this Perspective, we identify potential anticipatory and/or concurrent options for non-timber forest management actions under megadrought, which by necessity are focused more at finer spatial scales such as the stand level using higher-intensity management. These management actions build on silvicultural practices focused on growth and yield (but not harvest). Current management options that can be focused at finer scales include key silvicultural practices: selective thinning; use of carefully selected forward-thinking seed mixes; site contouring; vegetation and pest management; soil erosion control; and fire management. For the extreme challenges posed by megadroughts, management will necessarily focus even more on finer-scale, higher-intensity actions for priority locations such as fostering stand refugia; assisted stand recovery via soil amendments; enhanced root development; deep soil water retention; and shallow water impoundments. Drought-induced forest die-off from megadrought likely will lead to fundamental changes in the structure, function, and composition of forest stands and the ecosystem services they provide.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

Monitoring the status of forests and rangelands in the Western United States using ecosystem performance anomalies

The effects of land management and disturbance on ecosystem performance (i.e. biomass production) are often confounded by those of weather and site potential. The current study overcomes this issue by calculating the difference between actual and expected ecosystem performance (EEP) to generate ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA). This study aims to delineate and quantify average EPA from 2000–2009 within the Greater Platte and Upper Colorado River Basins, USA. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images averaged over the growing season (GSN) served as a proxy of actual ecosystem performance. Yearly EEP was determined with rule-based piecewise regression tree models of abiotic data (climate, soils, elevation, etc.), independently created for each land cover. EPA were calculated as the residuals of the EEP to GSN relationship, and characterized as normal performing, underperforming, and overperforming at the 90% confidence level. Validation revealed that EPA values were related to biomass production (R 2 = 0.56, P = 0.02) and likely to the proportion of biomass removed by livestock in the Nebraska Sandhills. Overall, 60.6% of the study area was (normal) performing near its EEP, 3.0% was severely underperforming, 5.0% was highly overperforming, and the remainder was slightly underperforming or overperforming. Generally, disturbances such as fires, floods, and insect damage, in addition to high grazing intensity, result in a negative EPA. Conversely, mature stands and appropriate management often result in positive EPA values. This method provides information critical to land managers to evaluate the appropriateness of previous management practices and restoration efforts and quantify disturbance impacts. Results are at a scale sufficient for many of the large management units of the region and for locating areas needing further investigation. Applications of EPA data to monitoring invasive species, grazing impacts, and vulnerability to plant community shifts have been suggested by land management professionals.

Arizona;Colorado;Kansas;Nebraska;New Mexico;South ↗

Active forest management accelerates carbon storage in plantation forests in Lishui, southern China

Background China has committed to achieving peak CO 2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060; therefore, accelerated efforts are needed to better understand carbon accounting in industry and energy fields as well as terrestrial ecosystems. The carbon sink capacity of plantation forests contributes to the mitigation of climate change. Plantation forests throughout the world are intensively managed, and there is an urgent need to evaluate the effects of such management on long-term carbon dynamics. Methods We assessed the carbon cycling patterns of ecosystems characterized by three typical plantation species (Chinese fir ( Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.), oak ( Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunb.) Oerst.), and pine ( Pinus massoniana Lamb.)) in Lishui, southern China, by using an integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) tuned with localized parameters. Then, we used the state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) to study the effects of active forest management (AFM) on carbon storage by combining forest disturbance history and carbon cycle regimes. Results 1) The carbon stock of the oak plantation was lower at an early age (<50 years) but higher at an advanced age (>50 years) than that of the Chinese fir and pine plantations. 2) The carbon densities of the pine and Chinese fir plantations peaked at 70 years (223.36 ​Mg·ha ‒1 ) and 64 years (232.04 ​Mg·ha ‒1 ), respectively, while the carbon density in the oak plantation continued increasing (>100 years). 3) From 1989 to 2019, the total carbon pools of the three plantation ecosystems followed an upward trend (an annual increase of 0.16–0.22 ​Tg ​C), with the largest proportional increase in the aboveground biomass carbon pool. 4) AFM increased the recovery of carbon storage after 1996 and 2009 in the pine and Chinese fir plantations, respectively, but did not result in higher growth in the oak plantation. 5) The proposed harvest planning is reasonable and conducive to maximizing the carbon sequestration capacity of the forest. Conclusions This study provides an example of a carbon cycle coupling model that is potentially suitable for simulating China's plantation forest ecosystems and supporting carbon accounting to monitor peak CO 2 emissions and reach carbon neutrality.

Lishui↗

The ecology of extinctions in kelp forest communities

We recognize three levels of extinction–global, local, and ecological – and provide examples of each. The protection and recovery of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) has provided abundant evidence of the consequences of their local extinction from kelp forest communities in the North Pacifc Ocean. These consequences include release of benthic invertebrate populations from limitation by predation; deforestation of kelp beds due to increased grazing by herbivorous sea urchins, one of the otter's main prey; and various cascading effects resulting from the biological and physical importance of kelp in coastal ecosystems. These interactions probably were important agents of selection for certain species. Two other examples are discussed: Steller's sea cow (Hydrodamalis gigas), a case of global extinction, and spiny lobsters, a possible case of ecological extinction. We speculate that grazing by sea cows was an important disturbance to surface-canopy-forming kelps and other algae in the littoral zones, but also point out that any such interactions probably acted in concert with physical disturbances by ocean waves. The ecological and evolutionary importance of sea cow grazing probably will remain a matter of speculation and conjecture because the species is globally extinct. Predation by spiny lobsters limits a variety of littoral and sublittoral invertebrate populations, particularly mollusks In one remarkable example, the reduction or local extinction of spiny lobsters enabled predutory whelks to increase in size and abundance, ultimately resulting in a predutor-prey role reversal. From these and other case studies we can clued that (1) the extinction of consumers may have brad and sometimes unexpected influences on kelp forest ecosystems; (2) direct or indirect interactions with now-extinct species probably exerted important selective influences on many extant forms; (3) such ecological and evolutionary influences are best understood where local or ecological extinctions, followed by recoveries, have provided comparisons in space or time; and (4) because of various ecological and behavioral barriers, local extinctions and their ecological consequences may not be simply reversed by protecting or reintroducing depleted or locally extinct species.

Conservation Biology↗

National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program Report to Congress: An integrated assessment

Acid deposition, more commonly known as acid rain, occurs when emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) react in the atmosphere (with water, oxygen, and oxidants) to form various acidic compounds. These acidic compounds then fall to earth in either a wet form (rain, snow, and fog) or a dry form (gases, aerosols, and particles). Prevailing winds transport the acidic compounds hundreds of miles, often across state and national borders. At certain levels the acidic compounds, including small particles such as sulfates and nitrates can cause many negative human health and environmental effects. While ecosystems are subject to many stresses, including land-use changes, climate change, and variations in hydrologic and meteorologic cycles, the scientific literature has clearly demonstrated that these pollutants can: • Degrade air quality, • Impair visibility, • Damage public health, • Acidify lakes and streams, • Harm sensitive forests, • Harm sensitive coastal ecosystems, and • Accelerate the decay of building materials, paints, and cultural artifacts such as buildings, statues, and sculptures. Title IV was passed by Congress as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments to reduce emissions of SO 2 and NO x from fossil fuel-burning power plants in order to protect ecosystems suffering damage from acid deposition and to improve air quality. At the same time, the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) was asked to periodically assess and report to Congress on the implementation of the Acid Rain Program, recent scientific knowledge surrounding acid deposition and its effects, and the reduction in acid deposition necessary to prevent adverse ecological effects. This NAPAP Report focuses primarily on emission reductions from power plants, both in terms of assessing past reductions under the Acid Rain Program and in projecting the ecological effects of additional reductions of SO 2 and NO x . It should be noted that power generation currently contributes approximately 69% of the SO 2 emissions and 22% of the NO x emissions nationwide. This contribution is decreasing as emissions from power generation continue to decrease, making the other sources of these pollutants more prominent. Modeling suggests that even if SO 2 emissions from power generation were reduced to zero, some lakes and streams would remain acidic due to acid deposition. However, there are several other regulations that reduce emissions of SO 2 and NO x from these non-power generation sources, such as the Tier II mobile source standards, the Heavy Duty Diesel standards, and the Clean Air Non-Road Diesel Rule, that have also been promulgated since 1990. These regulations, primarily designed to bring counties into attainment with fine particle and ozone air quality standards, also incidentally reduce emissions that contribute to acid deposition. Implementation of Title IV has successfully and substantially reduced emissions of SO 2 and NO x from power generation at a significantly lower cost than expected: • In 2002, SO 2 emissions were 10.2 million tons, 35% lower than 1990 emissions and 40% lower than 1980 emissions.* • In 2002, NO x emissions were 4.5 million tons, 33% lower than 1990 emissions. In addition, SO 2 emissions from all sources have decreased by 32% since 1990 and emissions of NO x from all sources have decreased by 12% since 1990. Power generating sources continue to close in on the goal of reducing power plant SO 2 emissions from 1980 levels by 50% (to 8.95 million tons) as required by the 1990 Clean Air Act. Power generating sources have also exceed­ed the goal of a two million ton reduction in NO x emissions from projected 2000 levels as required by the 1990 Clean Air Act. These emission reductions have contributed to measurable improvements in air quality, reductions in acid deposition, and the beginnings of recovery of acid-sensitive waters in some areas: • SO2 concentrations in the atmosphere (a precursor to fine particles and acid deposition) have decreased since 1990. Average annual SO2 concentrations in the Northeast in 2000–2002 were 40% lower than they were in 1989–1991, concentrations in the mid-Atlantic were 30% lower, concentrations in the Southeast were 35% lower, and concentrations in the Midwest were 45% lower. • Sulfate concentrations in the atmosphere (a major component of fine particles, especially in the East) have decreased since 1990 as well. Average annual sulfate concentrations in the Northeast and Midwest in 2000–2002 were approximately 30% lower than they were in 1989–1991, and concentrations in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast were 25% lower. • Wet sulfate deposition, a major component of acid rain, has also decreased since 1990. Average annual sulfate deposition in the Northeast in 2000–2002 was 40% lower than it was in 1989–1991, deposition in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest was 35% lower, and deposition in the Southeast was 25% lower. • Wet nitrate deposition has not decreased regionally from historical levels because of the relatively moderate NO x reduction from power plants and the continuing large contribution (over 50% of total NOx emissions) from other sources of NO x such as vehicles and nonroad vehicles. • Although visibility has begun to improve in some parts of the U.S., there is still significant impairment of visibility in many national parks and other Class I areas throughout the U.S. • Acid neutralizing capacity is beginning to rise in some surface waters in the Northeast, including lakes in the Adirondack Mountains (see graphic below). This is an indication that recovery from acidification is occurring in those areas.

Report to Congress↗

Social-value maps for Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests, Colorado and Wyoming

Executive Summary The continued pressures of population growth on the life-sustaining, economic, and cultural ecosystem services provided by our national forests, particularly those located near rapidly growing urban areas, present ongoing challenges to forest managers. Achieving an effective assessment of these ecosystem services includes a proper accounting of the ecological, economic, and social values attributable to them. However, assessments of ecosystem goods and services notably lack information describing the spatial distribution and relative intensity of social values—the perceived, nonmarket values derived particularly from cultural ecosystem services. A geographic information system (GIS) tool developed to fill this need, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES; http://solves.cr.usgs.gov ), now provides the capability to generate social-value maps at a range of spatial scales. This report presents some of the methods behind SolVES, procedures needed to apply the tool, the first formal map products resulting from its application at a regional scale, and a discussion of the management implications associated with this type of information. In this study, we use SolVES to identify the location and relative intensity of social values as derived from survey responses gathered from residents living in counties adjacent to Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests. The results, presented as a series of social-value maps, represent the first publicly available spatial data on social-value intensity for the southern Rocky Mountain region. Our analysis identified high-value areas for social values including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life sustaining within wilderness areas. Other values, like recreation, show high-value areas both within wilderness and throughout the general forest areas, which can be attributed to people using the forests for a diverse set of recreational activities. The economic social-value type was lower within wilderness areas, which was an expected outcome because of the restrictions inside wilderness areas that preclude resource extraction, development, and motorized or mechanized recreation. Providing spatially explicit social-value information collected from residents in counties adjacent to these national forests can assist in facilitating the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service’s Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 (16 U.S.C. 528) note and the 2012 Forest Service Planning Rule (36 CFR Part 219), which encourage public participation in planning and management. By making these maps available to the public, we hope to encourage exploration of potential uses of these data for resource management and planning.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

The Moquah Barrens Research Natural Area: Loss of a pine barrens ecosystem

The Moquah Barrens Research Natural Area (RNA) was established by the Chequamegon National Forest and the Lakes States Forest Experiment Station in 1935 with a research objective well-suited to the needs of the Forest Service and the scientific understanding of ecosystem function prevalent at the time of establishment. The original research plan was never implemented, which led to a joint Forest-Station decision in 1956 to disestablish the RNA. However, that decision was never implemented. A series of management decisions made after 1956 led to the loss of the pine barrens ecosystem originally encompassed by the RNA. This loss is not irretrievable and the work necessary to recover the original ecosystem is possible under existing RNA management guidelines. The experience of the Moquah Barrens RNA can be used by the Forest Service to improve overall management of the entire system of research natural areas. Two main areas of opportunity are identified: 1) implement an improved approach to managing official records associated with RNAs; and 2) adopt a management framework suitable for long-term ecological projects.

Wisconsin↗

Biophysical drivers of coastal treeline elevation

Sea level rise is leading to the rapid migration of marshes into coastal forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Although complex biophysical interactions likely govern these ecosystem transitions, projections of sea level driven land conversion commonly rely on a simplified “threshold elevation” that represents the elevation of the marsh-upland boundary based on tidal datums alone. To determine the influence of biophysical drivers on threshold elevations, and their implication for land conversion, we examined almost 100,000 high-resolution marsh-forest boundary elevation points, determined independently from tidal datums, alongside hydrologic, ecologic, and geomorphic data in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S. located along the mid-Atlantic coast. We find five-fold variations in threshold elevation across the entire estuary, driven not only by tidal range, but also salinity and slope. However, more than half of the variability is unexplained by these variables, which we attribute largely to uncaptured local factors including groundwater discharge, microtopography, and anthropogenic impacts. In the Chesapeake Bay, observed threshold elevations deviate from predicted elevations used to determine sea level driven land conversion by as much as the amount of projected regional sea level rise by 2050. These results suggest that local drivers strongly mediate coastal ecosystem transitions, and that predictions based on elevation and tidal datums alone may misrepresent future land conversion.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

Methods and Sources of Data Used to Develop Selected Water-Quality Indicators for Streams and Ground Water for the 2007 Edition of The State of the Nation's Ecosystems Report with Comparisons to the 2002 Edition

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was one of numerous governmental, private, and academic entities that provided input to the report The State of the Nation?s Ecosystems published periodically by the Heinz Center. This report describes the sources of data and methods used by the USGS to develop selected water?quality indicators for the 2007 edition of the Heinz Center report and documents modifications in the data sources and interpretations between the 2002 and 2007 editions of the Heinz Center report. Stream and ground?water quality data collected nationally as part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program were used to develop the ecosystem indicators for the Heinz Center report, including Core National indicators for the Movement of Nitrogen and Chemical Contamination and for selected ecosystems classified as Farmlands, Forest, Grasslands and Shrublands, Freshwater, and Urban and Suburban. In addition, the USGS provided water?quality and streamflow data collected as part of the National Stream Water Quality Accounting Network and the Federal?State Cooperative Program. The documentation provided herein serves not only as a reference for current and future editions of The State of the Nation?s Ecosystems but also provides critical information for future assessments of changes in contaminant occurrence in streams and ground water of the United States.

Open-File Report↗

Bryophyte abundance, composition and importance to woody plant recruitment in natural and restoration forests

Restoration of tropical forests can lead to enhanced ecosystem services and increases in native biodiversity. Bryophytes may be an integral part of the forest restoration process and can serve a critical role in forest functioning. However, the recovery of bryophytes and their ability to facilitate woody plant establishment during restoration remains poorly studied, especially in the tropics. We investigate how bryophyte abundance and community composition, as well as woody plant seedling associations with bryophyte mats and other ground cover types change from under the canopy of intact forest to under trees in restoration corridor plantings in Hawaii. Restoration corridors consisted of corridors of koa (Acacia koa) trees that were planted roughly 30 years ago. Some corridors were planted around remnant ʻōhiʻa trees (Metrosideros polymorpha) that can be several hundred years old. We sampled under ʻōhiʻa in intact forest and both koa and ʻōhiʻa trees in restoration corridors. In restoration corridors, bryophyte abundance was low relative to intact forest and species diversity was a subset of that found in intact forest despite restoration corridors being several decades old. Seedlings strongly associated with bryophytes across all habitats suggesting that bryophytes may significantly enhance forest seedling establishment when present in restoration corridors. Other ground cover types like woody litter and nurse logs also had a positive association with forest seedlings but were rare in restoration corridors. Grass remained a dominant ground cover type in restoration corridors under koa and remnant ʻōhiʻa trees and only a single seedling was ever found growing in this grass. Enhancing bryophyte growth and recovery within restoration plantings through the reduction of grass cover could facilitate native plant establishment.

Hawaii↗

Sea-level rise vulnerability of mangrove forests on the Micronesian Island of Pohnpei

Introduction The mangrove forests across the Federated States of Micronesia provide critical resources and contribute to climate resilience. Locally, mangrove forests provide habitat for fish and wildlife, timber, and other cultural resources. Mangrove forests also protect Micronesian communities from tropical cyclones and tsunamis, providing a buffer against powerful waves and winds. Mangrove forests in Micronesia can store 700–1,800 metric tons of carbon per hectare (Donato and others, 2011), contributing to the estimated 5–10 billion metric tons of carbon stored by mangroves around the world (Alongi, 2018). This carbon storage is essential for global climate resilience. Mangrove forests and the benefits these ecosystems provide are threatened by accelerating sea-level rise and human activities. Healthy mangrove forests are resilient systems and have kept pace with some amounts of sea-level rise, but rapid sea-level rise could outpace the mangroves’ ability to adapt. Degraded mangroves are at greater risk where natural processes have been altered. Overharvest and clearing of timber, infrastructure development, and altered hydrology are just a few of the human activities that can damage mangrove forests.

Fact Sheet↗

Air-water gas exchange and CO2 flux in a mangrove-dominated estuary

Mangrove forests are highly productive ecosystems, but the fate of mangrove-derived carbon remains uncertain. Part of that uncertainty stems from the fact that gas transfer velocities in mangrove-surrounded waters are not well determined, leading to uncertainty in air-water CO 2 fluxes. Two SF 6 tracer release experiments were conducted to determine gas transfer velocities (k(600) = 8.3 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.6 cm h −1 ), along with simultaneous measurements of pCO 2 to determine the air-water CO 2 fluxes from Shark River, Florida (232.11 ± 23.69 and 171.13 ± 20.28 mmol C m −2 d −1 ), an estuary within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. The gas transfer velocity results are consistent with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation measurements, indicating a higher rate of turbulence and gas exchange than predicted by commonly used wind speed/gas exchange parameterizations. The results have important implications for carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems.

Florida↗

Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have been identified as an area of concern by the IPCC. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for tidal wetlands (WARMER-3) that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation building relative to sea levels. The model was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from 29 soil cores, over 300 forest inventory plots, water level, and elevation. The model included five mangrove tree species and was applied across seven regions around the Pacific Island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, where mangrove forest is a critical ecosystem that supports subsistence living for local communities. We explored mangrove resilience and carbon accumulation under six sea-level rise scenarios. We also conducted an analysis to determine the sea-level rise rate threshold above which mangroves would be lost. The results suggest that Pohnpei mangroves can build their elevations relative to low and moderate rates of sea-level rise to prevent submergence, with limited loss of mangrove area through 2150. Under higher sea-level rise rates, however, forest elevation decreased substantially relative to mean sea level and there was extensive loss of mangrove area by that year. Regarding mangrove community composition, for all sea-level rise scenarios, the model predicted a change to increasing relative abundance of flood tolerant species and decreasing relative abundance of high-elevation species, which started to being realized by 2100. Variation in sediment supply, water levels, and elevation capital led to differential vulnerability around the island. We identified a threshold for Pohnpei mangroves where if local sea-level rise rates exceed 7.8 ± 2.2 mm/year they are projected to eventually submerge and be lost. Our modeling framework is novel by addressing both species interactions and critical belowground processes to better understand potential tidal ecosystem responses to sea-level rise.

Pohnpei↗