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USGS2010

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2010

National ecosystem assessments supported by scientific and local knowledge

An understanding of the extent of land degradation and recovery is necessary to guide land-use policy and management, yet currently available land-quality assessments are widely known to be inadequate. Here, we present the results of the first statistically based application of a new approach to national assessments that integrates scientific and local knowledge. Qualitative observations completed at over 10 000 plots in the United States showed that while soil degradation remains an issue, loss of biotic integrity is more widespread. Quantitative soil and vegetation data collected at the same locations support the assessments and serve as a baseline for monitoring the effectiveness of policy and management initiatives, including responses to climate change. These results provide the information necessary to support strategic decisions by land managers and policy makers. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2013

Relaxing the closure assumption in single-season occupancy models: staggered arrival and departure times

Occupancy statistical models that account for imperfect detection have proved very useful in several areas of ecology, including species distribution and spatial dynamics, disease ecology, and ecological responses to climate change. These models are based on the collection of multiple samples at each of a number of sites within a given season, during which it is assumed the species is either absent or present and available for detection while each sample is taken. However, for some species, individuals are only present or available for detection seasonally. We present a statistical model that relaxes the closure assumption within a season by permitting staggered entry and exit times for the species of interest at each site. Based on simulation, our open model eliminates bias in occupancy estimators and in some cases increases precision. The power to detect the violation of closure is high if detection probability is reasonably high. In addition to providing more robust estimation of occupancy, this model permits comparison of phenology across sites, species, or years, by modeling variation in arrival or departure probabilities. In a comparison of four species of amphibians in Maryland we found that two toad species arrived at breeding sites later in the season than a salamander and frog species, and departed from sites earlier.

Ecology↗

USGS2014

Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient

Climate gradient-focused ecological research can provide a foundation for better understanding critical ecological transition points and nonlinear climate-ecological relationships, which is information that can be used to better understand, predict, and manage ecological responses to climate change. In this study, we examined the influence of freshwater availability upon the coverage of foundation plant species in coastal wetlands along a northwestern Gulf of Mexico rainfall gradient. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) what are the region-scale relationships between measures of freshwater availability (e.g., rainfall, aridity, freshwater inflow, salinity) and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands; (2) How vulnerable are foundation plant species in tidal wetlands to future changes in freshwater availability; and (3) What is the potential future relative abundance of tidal wetland foundation plant species under alternative climate change scenarios? We developed simple freshwater availability-based models to predict the relative abundance (i.e., coverage) of tidal wetland foundation plant species using climate data (1970-2000), estuarine freshwater inflow-focused data, and coastal wetland habitat data. Our results identify regional ecological thresholds and nonlinear relationships between measures of freshwater availability and the relative abundance of foundation plant species in tidal wetlands. In drier coastal zones, relatively small changes in rainfall could produce comparatively large landscape-scale changes in foundation plant species abundance which would affect some ecosystem good and services. Whereas a drier future would result in a decrease in the coverage of foundation plant species, a wetter future would result in an increase in foundation plant species coverage. In many ways, the freshwater-dependent coastal wetland ecological transitions we observed are analogous to those present in dryland terrestrial ecosystems.

Gulf Of Mexico↗

USGS1983

Present and former equilibrium-line altitudes near Mount Everest, Nepal and Tibet

New information on equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) of present and former glaciers in the Mount Everest area of eastern Nepal and southern Tibet has been derived from field mapping and interpretation of topographic maps and Landsat imagery. Present ELAs rise from south to north across the Himalayan Range from 5200 to 5800 m, as indicated by the altitudes of lowest cirque glaciers and highest lateral and medial moraines on valley glaciers. In contrast, ELAs during maximum late Pleistocene glaciation rose in altitude from 4300 to 5500 m across the range, as indicated by altitudes of lowest cirque floors and maximum extent of glacial deposits. Highest ELAs occurred on previously unrecognized ice caps that formerly covered extensive highland areas in Tibet north of the range crest. During four distinct Holocene glacial advances of subequal magnitude, ELAs were depressed about 30% as much as the late Pleistocene maximum depression. Depression of ELAs during the late Pleistocene glaciation was about twice as great south of the range crest (950 m) as north of it (400 m). Although the present northward decrease in precipitation causes ELAs to rise northward for 85 km at 7.1 m km -1 , the gradient during maximum late Pleistocene glaciation was 11 m km -1 . Such a great contrast in glacier response to climate change over a short distance is remarkable and probably reflects increased aridity on the Tibetan Plateau and increased climatic contrast across the Himalayan Range during glacial ages.

Mount Everest↗

USGS2012

Strategic directions for U.S. Geological Survey water science, 2012-2022 - Observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the Nation

Executive Summary This report expands the Water Science Strategy that was begun in the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). The report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Strategic Science Plan is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences . The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 130-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report. Priority actions focus on the following: Improve integrated science planning for water. Expand and enhance water-resource monitoring networks. Characterize the water cycle through development of state-of-the-art 3-D/4-D hydrogeologic framework models at multiple scales. Clarify the linkage between human water use (engineered hydrology) and the water cycle (natural hydrology). Advance ecological flow science. Provide flood-inundation science and information. Develop rapid deployment teams for water-related emergencies. Conduct integrated watershed assessment, research, and modeling. Deliver water data and analyses to the Nation. The body of the report is presented as a hierarchal set of 5 goals, 14 objectives, and 27 strategic actions that the USGS should undertake to advance water science through year 2022. The goals deal with: Providing society the information it needs regarding the amount and quality of water in all components of the water cycle at high temporal and spatial resolution, nationwide; Advancing our understanding of processes that determine water availability; Predicting changes in the quantity and quality of water resources in response to changing climate, population, land use, and management scenarios; Anticipating and responding to water-related emergencies and conflicts; and Delivering timely hydrologic data, analyses, and decision-support tools seamlessly across the Nation to support water-resource decisions. Scientific information produced on water resources would be without value if it were not communicated to society in a fashion that can inform decisions and actions. Therefore, the chapter following the goals describes how the USGS should inform, involve, and educate society about the science it produces. This includes discussions on local outreach and the use of social media for effective communication. This report concludes with a chapter devoted to the crosscutting science issues of the Water Mission Area with the other USGS Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and Minerals, Environmental Health Science, and Natural Hazards. Not one of these Mission Areas stands alone—all must work together and integrate their actions to fulfill the USGS science mission for the future. This final chapter identifies the important linkages that must be realized and maintained for this integration to occur.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Design of Cycle 3 of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2013-23: Part 2: Science plan for improved water-quality information and management

This report presents a science strategy for the third decade of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, which since 1991, has been responsible for providing nationally consistent information on the quality of the Nation's streams and groundwater; how water quality is changing over time; and the major natural and human factors that affect current water quality conditions and trends. The strategy is based on an extensive evaluation of the accomplishments of NAWQA over its first two decades, the current status of water-quality monitoring activities by USGS and its partners, and an updated analysis of stakeholder priorities. The plan is designed to address priority issues and national needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders and the National Research Council (2012) irrespective of budget constraints. This plan describes four major goals for the third decade (Cycle 3), the approaches for monitoring, modeling, and scientific studies, key partnerships required to achieve these goals, and products and outcomes that will result from planned assessment activities. The science plan for 2013–2023 is a comprehensive approach to meet stakeholder priorities for: (1) rebuilding NAWQA monitoring networks for streams, rivers, and groundwater, and (2) upgrading models used to extrapolate and forecast changes in water-quality and stream ecosystem condition in response to changing climate and land use. The Cycle 3 plan continues approaches that have been central to the Program’s long-term success, but adjusts monitoring intensities and study designs to address critical information needs and identified data gaps. Restoration of diminished monitoring networks and new directions in modeling and interpretative studies address growing and evolving public and stakeholder needs for water-quality information and improved management, particularly in the face of increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing demands for water, and changing land use and climate. However, a combination of funding growth and extensive collaboration with other USGS programs and other Federal, State, and local agencies, public interest groups, professional and trade associations, academia, and private industry will be needed to fully realize the monitoring and modeling goals laid out in this plan (USGS Fact Sheet 2013-3008).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Identifying resource manager information needs for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife and cultural resources in North America. LLCs were established by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) in recognition that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes and resource management challenges extend beyond national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management lands, national parks, and even international boundaries. Therefore, DOI agencies must work with other Federal, State, Tribal (U.S. indigenous peoples), First Nation (Canadian indigenous peoples), and local governments, as well as private landowners, to develop landscape-level strategies for understanding and responding to climate change.

Alaska;British Columbia;California;Oregon;Washingt↗

USGS1979

Subsurface stratigraphy and geochemistry of late Quaternary evaporites, Searles Lake, California, with a section on radiocarbon ages of stratigraphic units

Searles Lake is a dry salt pan, about 100 km 2 in area, that lies on the floor of Searles Valley, in the desert of southeast California. Several salt bodies of late Quaternary age lie beneath the surface, mostly composed of sodium and potassium carbonate, sulfate, chloride, and borate minerals. Mud layers separate the salt bodies, which contain interstitial brine that is the source of large quantities of industrial chemicals. The value of annual production from the deposit exceeds $30 million; total production to date exceeds $1 billion. The salts and muds were deposited during Pleistocene and Holocene times by a series of large lakes (200 m maximum depth, 1,000 km 2 maximum area) that fluctuated in size in response to climatic change. Salts were deposited during major dry (interpluvial) episodes, muds during wet (pluvial) episodes that correlate with glacial advances in other parts of North America and the world. Data based on cores from the deposit are used in this paper to establish the stratigraphy of the deposit, the chemical and mineral compositions of successive units, and the total quantities of components contained by them. These parameters are then used to determine the geochemical evolution of the sedimentary layers. The results provide a refined basis for reconstructing the limnology of Searles Lake and the regional climate during late Quaternary time. Six main stratigraphic units were distinguished and informally named earlier on the basis of their dominant composition: Unit Typical thickness 14C age, uncorrected (in meters) (years B.P.) Overburden Mud 7 0 to >3,500 Upper Salt 15 >3,500 to 10,500 Parting Mud 4 10,500 to 24,000 Lower Salt 12 24,000 to 32,500 Bottom Mud 30 32,500 to 130,000 Mixed Layer 200+ > 130,000 (The age of 130,000 years for the Mixed Layer is based on extrapolated sedimentation rates.) The Lower Salt is subdivided into seven salt units (S-l to S-7) and six mud units (M-2 to M-7), the Mixed Layer into six units (A to F). For each salt unit, the areal extent, volume, shape, mineralogy, and chemical composition of the solids and brines have been determined; for each mud unit (which originally extended over much of the basin), the shape and volume within a standard area, and the mineralogy, have been determined. The bulk compositions (brines plus salts) of the combined Lower Salt units S-l to S-5 and units S-6 and S-7, and the Upper Salt, were determined so that the total quantities and ratios of ions in the initial brines could be reconstructed. The 74 published HC dates on Searles Lake core samples from all but the oldest unit are supplemented by 14 new dates (determined by Minze Stuiver) on the Lower Salt. Most of the age control comes from dates based on disseminated organic carbon; two dates are on wood; dates on carbonate minerals are less reliable. Although the probable disequilibrium between the carbon in the lake and atmosphere (because of contamination, slow equilibrium rates, and other factors) causes disseminated carbon dates to be an estimated 500-2,500 years 'too old,' the ages of the major and minor units are relatively well established. The list above indicates rounded and uncorrected ages for the contacts of major units. The age of the only salt bed in the Lower Salt which indicates desiccation (S-5) is about 28,000 years. The average uncorrected sedimentation rate in the Parting Mud is 4

Professional Paper↗

USGS2021

Temperature variation and host immunity regulate viral persistence in a salmonid host

Environmental variation has important effects on host–pathogen interactions, affecting large-scale ecological processes such as the severity and frequency of epidemics. However, less is known about how the environment interacts with host immunity to modulate virus fitness within hosts. Here, we studied the interaction between host immune responses and water temperature on the long-term persistence of a model vertebrate virus, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). We first used cell culture methods to factor out strong host immune responses, allowing us to test the effect of temperature on viral replication. We found that 15 ∘ "> ∘ C water temperature accelerated IHNV replication compared to the colder 10 and 8 ∘ "> ∘ C temperatures. We then conducted in vivo experiments to quantify the effect of 6, 10, and 15 ∘ "> ∘ C water temperatures on IHNV persistence over 8 months. Fish held at 15 and 10 ∘ "> ∘ C were found to have higher prevalence of neutralizing antibodies compared to fish held at 6 ∘ "> ∘ C. We found that IHNV persisted for a shorter time at warmer temperatures and resulted in an overall lower fish mortality compared to colder temperatures. These results support the hypothesis that temperature and host immune responses interact to modulate virus persistence within hosts. When immune responses were minimized (i.e., in vitro) virus replication was higher at warmer temperatures. However, with a full potential for host immune responses (i.e., in vivo experiments) longer virus persistence and higher long-term virulence was favored in colder temperatures. We also found that the viral RNA that persisted at later time points (179 and 270 days post-exposure) was mostly localized in the kidney and spleen tissues. These tissues are composed of hematopoietic cells that are favored targets of the virus. By partitioning the effect of temperature on host and pathogen responses, our results help to better understand environmental drivers of host–pathogen interactions within hosts, providing insights into potential host–pathogen responses to climate change.

Pathogens↗

USGS2018

Remotely sensing the morphometrics and dynamics of a cold region dune field using historical aerial photography and airborne LiDAR data

This study uses an airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) survey, historical aerial photography and historical climate data to describe the character and dynamics of the Nogahabara Sand Dunes, a sub-Arctic dune field in interior Alaska’s discontinuous permafrost zone. The Nogahabara Sand Dunes consist of a 43-km 2 area of active transverse and barchanoid dunes within a 3200-km 2 area of vegetated dune and sand sheet deposits. The average dune height in the active portion of the dune field is 5.8 m, with a maximum dune height of 28 m. Dune spacing is variable with average crest-to-crest distances for select transects ranging from 66–132 m. Between 1952 and 2015, dunes migrated at an average rate of 0.52 m a −1 . Dune movement was greatest between 1952 and 1978 (0.68 m a −1 ) and least between 1978 and 2015 (0.43 m a −1 ). Dunes migrated predominantly to the southeast; however, along the dune field margin, net migration was towards the edge of the dune field regardless of heading. Better constraining the processes controlling dune field dynamics at the Nogahabara dunes would provide information that can be used to model possible reactivation of more northerly dune fields and sand sheets in response to climate change, shifting fire regimes and permafrost thaw.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2017

Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2020

Temporospatial shifts in Sandhill Crane staging in the Central Platte River Valley in response to climatic variation and habitat change

Over 80% of the Mid-Continent Sandhill Crane ( Antigone canadensis ) Population (MCP), estimated at over 660,000 individuals, stops in the Central Platte River Valley (CPRV) during spring migration from mid-February through mid-April. Research suggests that the MCP may be shifting its distribution spatially and temporally within the CPRV. From 2002 to 2017, we conducted weekly aerial surveys of Sandhill Cranes staging in the CPRV to examine temporal and spatial trends in their abundance and distribution. Then, we used winter temperature and drought severity measures from key wintering and early migratory stopover locations to assess the impacts of weather patterns on annual migration chronology in the CPRV. We also evaluated channel width and land cover characteristics using aerial imagery from 1938, 1998, and 2016 to assess the relationship between habitat change and the spatial distribution of the MCP in the CPRV. We used generalized linear models, cumulative link models, and Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AICc) to compare temporal and spatial models. Temperatures and drought conditions at wintering and migration locations that are heavily used by Greater Sandhill Cranes ( A. c. tabida ) best predicted migration chronology of the MCP to the CPRV. The spatial distribution of roosting Sandhill Cranes from 2015 to 2017 was best predicted by the proportion of width reduction in the main channel since 1938 (rather than its width in 2016) and the proportion of land cover as prairie-meadow habitat within 800 m of the Platte River. Our data suggest that Sandhill Cranes advanced their migration by an average of just over 1 day per year from 2002 to 2017, and that they continued to shift eastward, concentrating at eastern reaches of the CPRV. Climate change, land use change, and habitat loss have all likely contributed to Sandhill Cranes coming earlier and staying longer in fewer reaches of the CPRV, increasing their site use intensity. These historically unprecedented densities may present a disease risk to Sandhill Cranes and other waterbirds, including Whooping Cranes ( Grus americana ). Our models suggest that conservation actions may be maintaining Sandhill Crane densities in areas that would otherwise be declining in use. We suggest that management actions intended to mitigate trends in the distribution of Sandhill Cranes, including wet meadow restoration, may similarly benefit prairie- and braided river–endemic species of concern.

Nebraska↗

USGS2013

Dynamics of mangrove-marsh ecotones in subtropical coastal wetlands: fire, sea-level rise, and water levels

Ecotones are areas of sharp environmental gradients between two or more homogeneous vegetation types. They are a dynamic aspect of all landscapes and are also responsive to climate change. Shifts in the position of an ecotone across a landscape can be an indication of a changing environment. In the coastal Everglades of Florida, USA, a dominant ecotone type is that of mangrove forest and marsh. However, there is a variety of plants that can form the marsh component, including sawgrass (Cladium mariscus [L.] Pohl), needlegrass rush (Juncus roemerianus Scheele), and spikerush (Eleocharis spp.). Environmental factors including water depth, soil type, and occurrence of fires vary across these ecotones, influencing their dynamics. Altered freshwater inflows from upstream and increasing sea level over the past 100 years may have also had an impact. We analyzed a time series of historical aerial photographs for a number of sites in the coastal Everglades and measured change in position of mangrove–marsh ecotones. For three sites, detailed maps were produced and the area of marsh, mangrove, and other habitats was determined for five periods spanning the years 1928 to 2004. Contrary to our initial hypothesis on fire, we found that fire did not prevent mangrove expansion into marsh areas but may in fact assist mangroves to invade some marsh habitats, especially sawgrass. Disparate patterns in mangrove–marsh change were measured at two downstream sites, both of which had multiple fires over from 1948 to 2004. No change in mangrove or marsh area was measured at one site. Mangrove area increased and marsh area decreased at the second of these fire-impacted sites. We measured a significant increase in mangrove area and a decline in marsh area at an upstream site that had little occurrence of fire. At this site, water levels have increased significantly as sea level has risen, and this has probably been a factor in the mangrove expansion.

Florida↗

USGS2014

The implications of microbial and substrate limitation for the fates of carbon in different organic soil horizon types of boreal forest ecosystems: a mechanistically based model analysis

The large amount of soil carbon in boreal forest ecosystems has the potential to influence the climate system if released in large quantities in response to warming. Thus, there is a need to better understand and represent the environmental sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition. Most soil carbon decomposition models rely on empirical relationships omitting key biogeochemical mechanisms and their response to climate change is highly uncertain. In this study, we developed a multi-layer microbial explicit soil decomposition model framework for boreal forest ecosystems. A thorough sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify dominating biogeochemical processes and to highlight structural limitations. Our results indicate that substrate availability (limited by soil water diffusion and substrate quality) is likely to be a major constraint on soil decomposition in the fibrous horizon (40–60% of soil organic carbon (SOC) pool size variation), while energy limited microbial activity in the amorphous horizon exerts a predominant control on soil decomposition (>70% of SOC pool size variation). Elevated temperature alleviated the energy constraint of microbial activity most notably in amorphous soils, whereas moisture only exhibited a marginal effect on dissolved substrate supply and microbial activity. Our study highlights the different decomposition properties and underlying mechanisms of soil dynamics between fibrous and amorphous soil horizons. Soil decomposition models should consider explicitly representing different boreal soil horizons and soil–microbial interactions to better characterize biogeochemical processes in boreal forest ecosystems. A more comprehensive representation of critical biogeochemical mechanisms of soil moisture effects may be required to improve the performance of the soil model we analyzed in this study.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2017

Reply to comments of Nolan and Cook

The following reply to the comments by Nolan and Cook makes the following points. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is not a measure of summer rainfall. Cahokia's "Big Bang" dates to the end of the Edelhardt phase and continued through the Lohmann phase. The "American Bottom" refers only to the Mississippi River floodplain in the vicinity of East St. Louis, and the exact nature of human response to climate change cannot be predicted from PDSI data alone.

American Antiquity↗

USGS2006

Populations and habitat relationships of Piute ground squirrels in southwest Idaho

Piute ground squirrels (Spermophilus mollis idahoensis) are normally above ground from late January until late June or early July in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area in southwestern Idaho. In 2002 they were rarely seen above ground after early May. Because of the ecological importance of ground squirrels for nesting raptors and other species, we sought to determine the reasons for their early disappearance. We sampled 12 sites from January 2003 through March 2003 to determine if a population crash had occurred in 2002. Tests indicated that Piute ground squirrels had not been exposed to plague within the past year. The presence of yearlings in the population indicated that squirrels reproduced in 2002 and that at least some yearlings survived the winter. Both yearling and adult squirrels appeared to be reproducing at or above normal rates in 2003. The most plausible explanation for the early disappearance of Piute ground squirrels in 2002 is that squirrels entered seasonal torpor early in response to a late spring drought. In addition, the breeding chronology of squirrels may have shifted during the past 2 decades in response to climate change and/or habitat alteration. Shrub habitats provide a more favorable and stable environment for squirrels than grass habitats. Squirrel abundance was higher on live-trapping grids with sagebrush than on grids dominated by grass, and squirrel masses were higher at sites dominated by shrubs and Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda). Densities in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were within the ranges reported for earlier years, but densities in grass were lower than previously reported. Low densities at grassland sites in 2003 support other findings that drought affects squirrels in altered grass communities more than those in native shrub habitats. Long-term shifts in ground squirrel breeding chronology may have implications for raptors that depend on them for food.

Western North American Naturalist↗

USGS2013

Mapping landscape phenology preference of yellow-billed cuckoo with AVHRR data

We mapped habitat for threatened Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccycus americanus occidentalis) in the State of Arizona using the temporal greenness dynamics of the landscape, or the landscape phenology. Landscape phenometrics were derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for 1998 and 1999 by using Fourier harmonic analysis to analyze the waveform of the annual NDVI profile at each pixel. We modeled the spatial distribution of Yellow-billed Cuckoo habitat by coupling the field data of Cuckoo presence or absence and point-based samples of riparian and cottonwood-willow vegetation types with satellite phenometrics for 1998. Models were validated using field and satellite data collected in 1999. The results indicate that Yellow-billed Cuckoo occupy locations within their preferred habitat that exhibit peak greenness after the start of the summer monsoon and are greener and more dynamic than “average” habitat. Identification of preferred phenotypes within recognized habitat areas can be used to refine habitat models, inform predictions of habitat response to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies.

Arizona↗