Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Statistical Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

Predictability and selection of hydrologic metrics in riverine ecohydrology

The natural flow regime is critical to the health of riverine ecosystems. Many hydrologic metrics (HMs) have been developed to describe natural flow regimes, quantify flow alteration, and provide the hydrologic foundation for the development of environmental flow standards. Many applications require the use of models to predict expected natural values of HMs from basin characteristics at sites with no observed records of unimpaired flows. However, the error associated with HM estimation has not been evaluated. The primary goal of our study was to provide guidance for river scientists and managers in the selection, use, and interpretation of HMs for stream classification and hydroecological investigations of river ecosystems. We evaluated the predictability of a broad suite of HMs for the conterminous USA based on random forest statistical models. We also examined how the predictability of metrics varied among unique components of the flow regime. Roughly 40% of 612 HMs we examined could be predicted reliably from basin characteristics. The predictable metrics were disproportionately represented in 5 flow components: asymmetry, seasonality, magnitude, variability, and average monthly flows. Most metrics that represent extreme hydrological events (i.e., high and low flows) could not be reliably predicted. Roughly ⅔ of the evaluated HMs were incalculable or highly biased at intermittent/ephemeral streams because of the need for logarithmic transformations or scaling by other HMs, such as mean flows or percentile flow thresholds. Scaling metrics by drainage area tended to improve predictability. We recommend that the predictability of HMs be given greater consideration in studies and applications in which they are used to characterize and assess alteration of streamflow regimes.

Freshwater Science

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular

Archive of digital boomer seismic reflection data collected during USGS field activity 02LCA02 in Lakes Ada, Crystal, Jennie, Mary, Rice, and Sylvan, Central Florida, July 2002

In July of 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey and St. Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD) conducted geophysical surveys in Lakes Ada, Crystal, Jennie, Mary, Rice, and Sylvan, central Florida, as part of the USGS Lakes and Coastal Aquifers (LCA) study. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital boomer seismic reflection data, trackline maps, navigation files, Geographic Information System (GIS) files, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Filtered and gained (a relative increase in signal amplitude) digital images of the seismic profiles are also provided. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansions of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG-Y format (Barry and others, 1975) and may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (SU). Example SU processing scripts and USGS software for viewing the SEG-Y files (Zihlman, 1992) are also provided. The USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) - St. Petersburg assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 02LCA02 tells us the data were collected in 2002 for the Lakes and Coastal Aquifers (LCA) study and the data were collected during the second field activity for that study in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. The boomer plate is an acoustic energy source that consists of capacitors charged to a high voltage and discharged through a transducer in the water. The transducer is towed on a sled floating on the water surface and when discharged emits a short acoustic pulse, or shot, which propagates through the water, sediment column, or rock beneath. The acoustic energy is reflected at density boundaries (such as the seafloor, sediment, or rock layers beneath the seafloor), detected by the receiver, and recorded by a PC-based seismic acquisition system. This process is repeated at timed intervals (for example, 0.5 s) and recorded for specific intervals of time (for example, 100 ms). In this way, a two-dimensional (2-D) vertical profile of the shallow geologic structure beneath the ship track is produced. Figure 1 displays the acquisition geometry. Refer to table 1 for a summary of acquisition parameters. Table 2 lists trackline statistics. The unprocessed seismic data are stored in SEG-Y format (Barry and others, 1975). For a detailed description of the data format, refer to the SEG-Y Format page. See the How To Download SEG-Y Data page for download instructions. The printable profiles provided here are GIF images that were filtered and gained using Seismic Unix software. Refer to the Software page for details about the processing and examples of the processing scripts. The processed SEG-Y data were exported to Chesapeake Technology, Inc. (CTI) SonarWeb software to produce an interactive Web page of the profile, which allows the user to obtain a geographic location and depth from the profile for a curser position. This information is displayed in the status bar of the browser.

Florida

Archive of digital boomer seismic reflection data collected during USGS field activity 96LCA04 in Lakes Mabel and Starr, Central Florida, August 1996

In August of 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted geophysical surveys of Lakes Mabel and Starr, central Florida, as part of the Central Highlands Lakes project, which is part of a larger USGS Lakes and Coastal Aquifers (LCA) study. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital boomer seismic reflection data, trackline maps, navigation files, Geographic Information System (GIS) files, observer's logbook; and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Filtered and gained (a relative increase in signal amplitude) digital images of the seismic profiles are also provided. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansions of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. For detailed information about the hydrologic setting of Lake Starr and the interpretation of some of these seismic reflection data, see Swancar and others (2000) at http://fl.water.usgs.gov/publications/Abstracts/wri00_4030_swancar.html. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG-Y format (Barry and others, 1975) and may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (SU). Example SU processing scripts and USGS software for viewing the SEG-Y files (Zihlman, 1992) are also provided. The USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) - St. Petersburg assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 96LCA04 tells us the data were collected in 1996 for the Lakes and Coastal Aquifers (LCA) study and the data were collected during the fourth field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. The boomer plate is an acoustic energy source that consists of capacitors charged to a high voltage and discharged through a transducer in the water. The transducer is towed on a sled floating on the water surface and when discharged emits a short acoustic pulse, or shot, which propagates through the water and sediment column. The acoustic energy is reflected at density boundaries (such as the seafloor or sediment layers beneath the lake bottom), detected by the receiver (a hydrophone streamer), and recorded by a PC-based seismic acquisition system. This process is repeated at timed intervals (for example, 0.5 s) and recorded for specific intervals of time (for example, 100 ms). In this way, a two-dimensional (2-D) vertical image of the shallow geologic structure beneath the ship track is produced. Figure 1 displays the acquisition geometry. Refer to table 1 for a summary of acquisition parameters. Table 2 lists trackline statistics. Scanned images of the handwritten cruise logbook (1,020-KB PDF) is also provided as a PDF file. The unprocessed seismic data are stored in SEG-Y format (Barry and others, 1975). For a detailed description of the data format, refer to the SEG-Y Format page. See the How To Download SEG-Y Data page for download instructions. The printable profiles provided here are GIF images that were filtered and gained using Seismic Unix software. Refer to the Software page for details about the processing and examples of the processing scripts. The processed SEG-Y data were exported to Chesapeake Technology, Inc. (CTI) SonarWeb software to produce an interactive version of the seismic profile that allows the user to obtain a geographic location and depth from the profile for a curser position. This information is displayed in the status bar of the browser.

Florida

U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, 2011 report of selected wildlife diseases

The National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) was founded in 1975 to provide technical assistance in identifying, controlling, and preventing wildlife losses from diseases, conduct research to understand the impact of diseases on wildlife populations, and devise methods to more effectively manage these disease threats. The impetus behind the creation of the NWHC was, in part, the catastrophic loss of tens of thousands of waterfowl as a result of an outbreak of duck plague at the Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge in South Dakota during January 1973. In 1996, the NWHC, along with other Department of Interior research functions, was transferred from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), where we remain one of many entities that provide the independent science that forms the bases of the sound management of the Nation’s natural resources. Our mission is to provide national leadership to safeguard wildlife and ecosystem health through dynamic partnerships and exceptional science. The main campus of the NWHC is located in Madison, Wis., where we maintain biological safety level 3 (BSL–3) diagnostic and research facilities purposefully designed for work with wildlife species. The NWHC provides research and technical assistance on wildlife health issues to State, Federal, and international agencies. In addition, since 1992 we have maintained a field station in Hawaii, the Honolulu Field Station, which focuses on marine and terrestrial natural resources throughout the Pacific region. The NWHC conducts diagnostic investigations of unusual wildlife morbidity and mortality events nationwide to detect the presence of wildlife pathogens and determine the cause of death. This is also an important activity for detecting new, emerging and resurging diseases. The NWHC provides this crucial information on the presence of wildlife diseases to wildlife managers to support sound management decisions. The data and information generated also allows for further indepth analyses for determining the biological and ecological significance of disease events, detecting disease trends over time and space, as well as detecting any significant changes to how diseases manifest in the field. Moreover, this information allows us to gain insight into the significance of future wildlife disease events. The purpose of this report is to provide a sample of NWHC data that are available from our Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS). These data are presented in summary format with minimal statistical analysis and interpretation. The goal is to share these data with wildlife managers and other stakeholders, promote the use of NHWC data, and encourage the sharing of wildlife disease data to improve temporal and geographic surveillance coverage. Continued national surveillance for wildlife diseases is essential for providing early detection and warning of events that have the potential to result in harm to human health, economic losses, declines in wildlife populations, and subsequent ecological disturbances. Increased collaboration, coordination, and sharing of surveillance data will enhance this Nation’s ability to detect and respond to wildlife disease threats.

Scientific Investigations Report

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources. A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively. Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses. Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming

Using a vegetation index to assess wetland condition in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetlands deliver a suite of ecosystem services to society. Anthropogenic activities, such as wetland drainage, have resulted in considerable wetland loss and degradation, diminishing the intrinsic value of wetland ecosystems worldwide. Protecting remaining wetlands and restoring degraded wetlands are common management practices to preserve and reclaim wetland benefits to society. Accordingly, methods for monitoring and assessing wetlands are required to evaluate their ecologic condition and outcomes of restoration activities. We used an established methodology for conducting vegetation-based assessments and describe a case study consisting of a wetland condition assessment in the Prairie Pothole Region of the North American Great Plains. We provide an overview of an existing method for selecting wetlands to sample across broad geographic distributions using a spatially balanced statistical design. We also describe site assessment protocols, including vegetation survey methods, and how field data were applied to a vegetation index that categorized wetlands according to ecologic condition. Results of the case study indicated that vegetation communities in nearly 50% of the surveyed wetlands were in very poor or poor condition, while only about 25% were considered good or very good . Approximately 70% of wetlands in native grasslands were categorized as good or very good compared to only 12% of those in reseeded grasslands (formerly cropland). In terms of informing restoration and management activities, results indicated that improved restoration practices could include a greater focus on establishing natural vegetation communities, and both restored and native prairie wetlands would benefit from enhanced management of invasive species.

Prairie Pothole Region

Balancing prey availability and predator consumption: A multispecies stock assessment for Lake Ontario

Trophic interactions are drivers of ecosystem change and stability, yet are often excluded from fishery assessment models, despite their potential capacity to improve estimates of species dynamics and future fishery sustainability. In Lake Ontario, recreational salmonine fisheries, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), depend on a single prey species, alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ). To accommodate strong trophic interactions among species, we developed a multispecies statistical catch-at-age assessment (MSCAA) model that links the dynamics of the salmonine fisheries and alewife via prey consumption and predator growth. We found that prey availability had declined since 2015 due to decreased alewife recruitment and increased Chinook salmon biomass, leading to higher alewife mortality rates and lower predator growth rates. Forward projections of predator–prey dynamics suggest that Chinook salmon stocking reductions may improve the probability for alewife population growth, but could be counteracted by increased natural Chinook salmon recruitment. Combined with predator- and prey-monitoring efforts, multispecies assessments show promise as models of intermediate complexity to support a transition to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management.

Lake Ontario

Archive of digital boomer subbottom data collected during USGS cruise 05FGS01 offshore east-central Florida, July 17-29, 2005

In July of 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Florida Geological Survey (FGS), conducted a geophysical survey of the Atlantic Ocean offshore of Florida's east coast from Flagler Beach to Daytona Beach. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital boomer subbottom data, trackline maps, navigation files, Geographic Information System (GIS) files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Filtered and gained (showing a relative increase in signal amplitude) digital images of the seismic profiles are also provided. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansions of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. The USGS Saint Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 05FGS01 tells us the data were collected in 2005 for cooperative work with the FGS and the data were collected during the first field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. The boomer subbottom processing system consists of an acoustic energy source that is made up of capacitors charged to a high voltage and discharged through a transducer in the water. The transducer is towed on a sled floating on the water surface and when discharged emits a short acoustic pulse, or shot, which propagates through the water column and shallow stratrigraphy below. The acoustic energy is reflected at density boundaries (such as the seafloor or sediment layers beneath the seafloor), detected by the receiver (a hydrophone streamer), and recorded by a PC-based seismic acquisition system. This process is repeated at timed intervals (for example, 0.5 s) and recorded for specific intervals of time (for example, 100 ms). In this way, a two-dimensional (2-D) vertical image of the shallow geologic structure beneath the ship track is produced. Figure 1 displays the acquisition geometry. Refer to table 1 for a summary of acquisition parameters and table 2 for trackline statistics. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG Y format (Barry and others, 1975), except an ASCII format is used for the first 3,200 bytes of the card image header instead of the standard EBCDIC format. For a detailed description about the recorded trace headers, refer to the SEG Y Format page. The SEG Y files may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (Cohen and Stockwell, 2005). See the How To Download SEG Y Data page for download instructions. The printable profiles provided here are GIF images that were processed and gained using SU software; refer to the Software page for links to example SU processing scripts. The processed SEG Y data were also exported to Chesapeake Technology, Inc. (CTI) SonarWeb software to produce a geospatially interactive version of the profile that allows the user to obtain a geographic location and depth from the profile for a given cursor position; this information is displayed in the status bar of the browser. Please note that clicking on the profile image switches it to "Expanded View" (a compressed image of the entire line) and cursor tracking is not available in this mode.

Florida

Spatial sampling bias in the Neotoma paleoecological archives affects species paleo-distribution models

The ability to infer paleo-distributions with limited knowledge of absence makes species distribution modeling (SDM) a useful tool for exploring paleobiogeographic questions. Spatial sampling bias is a known issue when modeling extant species. Here we quantify the spatial sampling bias in a North American packrat midden archive and explore its impact on estimating paleo-distributions. We test whether (1) spatial sampling bias inherent in this macrofossil record can influence estimates of paleo-distributions, (2) this bias can alter the ability to measure shifts in distributions and climatic niche breadth from the Northgrippian subdivision of the Holocene (8.3 ka – 4.2 ka) to present day (1950–2000 yr), and (3) bias correction methods can improve estimates of paleo-distributions and analyses of range shifts and niche breadth. We estimate spatial sampling bias for the mid-Holocene period with a three-stage statistical model, each representing a hypothesized source of bias: fossil site availability, preservation and accessibility. This approach enables the use of SDM to evaluate three separate paleo-distributions calibrated on the packrat midden archive: those without bias correction (σ-naïve), those created with a standard method (σ-standard), and those created with a novel alternative (σ-modeled) incorporating the three-stage model of bias. We find that paleo-distributions modeled for the mid-Holocene without bias correction (σ-naïve) provided poor estimates of hindcast paleo-distributions, and that the σ-modeled correction method improved paleo-distributions for our six species with, on average, 50% higher overlap to hindcast distributions than σ-naïve paleo-distributions (σ-standard results fell between σ-naïve and σ-modeled).

Journal of Quaternary Science Reviews

Application of municipal biosolids to dry-land wheat fields - A monitoring program near Deer Trail, Colorado (USA). A presentation for an international conference: "The Future of Agriculture: Science, Stewardship, and Sustainability", August 7-9, 2006, Sacramento, CA

Since late 1993, Metro Wastewater Reclamation District of Denver (Metro District), a large wastewater treatment plant in Denver, Colorado, has applied Grade I, Class B biosolids to about 52,000 acres of non-irrigated farmland and rangeland near Deer Trail, Colorado. In cooperation with the Metro District in 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began monitoring ground water at part of this site. In 1999, the USGS began a more comprehensive study of the entire site to address stakeholder concerns about the chemical effects of biosolids applications. This more comprehensive monitoring program has recently been extended through 2010. Monitoring components of the more comprehensive study included biosolids collected at the wastewater treatment plant, soil, crops, dust, alluvial and bedrock ground water, and stream bed sediment. Streams at the site are dry most of the year, so samples of stream bed sediment deposited after rain were used to indicate surface-water effects. This presentation will only address biosolids, soil, and crops. More information about these and the other monitoring components are presented in the literature (e.g., Yager and others, 2004a, b, c, d) and at the USGS Web site for the Deer Trail area studies at http://co.water.usgs.gov/projects/CO406/CO406.html. Priority parameters identified by the stakeholders for all monitoring components, included the total concentrations of nine trace elements (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, and zinc), plutonium isotopes, and gross alpha and beta activity, regulated by Colorado for biosolids to be used as an agricultural soil amendment. Nitrogen and chromium also were priority parameters for ground water and sediment components. In general, the objective of each component of the study was to determine whether concentrations of priority parameters (1) were higher than regulatory limits, (2) were increasing with time, or (3) were significantly higher in biosolids-applied areas than in a similar farmed area where biosolids were not applied. Where sufficient samples could be collected, statistical methods were used to evaluate effects. Rigorous quality assurance was included in all aspects of the study. The roles of hydrology and geology also were considered in the design, data collection, and interpretation phases of the study. Study results indicate that the chemistry of the biosolids from the Denver plant was consistent during 1999-2005, and total concentrations of regulated trace elements were consistently lower than the regulatory limits. Plutonium isotopes were not detected in the biosolids. Leach tests using deionized water to simulate natural precipitation indicate arsenic, molybdenum, and nickel were the most soluble priority parameters in the biosolids. Study results show no significant difference in concentrations of priority parameters between biosolids-applied soils and unamended soils where no biosolids were applied. However, biosolids were applied only twice during 1999-2003. The next soil sampling is not scheduled until 2010. To date concentrations of most of the priority parameters were not much greater in the biosolids than in natural soil from the sites. Therefore, many more biosolids applications would need to occur before biosolids effects on the soil priority constituents can be quantified. Leach tests using deionized water to simulate precipitation indicate that molybdenum and selenium were the priority parameters that were most soluble in both biosolids-applied soil and natural or unamended soil. Study results do not indicate significant differences in concentrations of priority parameters between crops grown in biosolids-applied areas and crops grown where no biosolids were applied. However, crops were grown only twice during 1999-2003, so only two crop samples could be collected. The wheat-grain elemental data collected during 1999-2003 for both biosolids-applied areas and unamended areas are similar

Open-File Report

Aligning climate models with stakeholder needs: Advances in communicating future rainfall uncertainties for south Florida decision makers

Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.

South Florida

Improved automated detection of subpixel-scale inundation – Revised Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) partial surface water tests

In order to produce useful hydrologic and aquatic habitat data from the Landsat system, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed the “Dynamic Surface Water Extent” (DSWE) Landsat Science Product. DSWE will provide long-term, high-temporal resolution data on variations in inundation extent. The model used to generate DSWE is composed of five decision-rule based tests that do not require scene-based training. To allow its general application, required inputs are limited to the Landsat at-surface reflectance product and a digital elevation model. Unlike other Landsat-based water products, DSWE includes pixels that are only partially covered by water to increase inundation dynamics information content. Previously published DSWE model development included one wetland-focused test developed through visual inspection of field-collected Everglades spectra. A comparison of that test’s output against Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) in situ data confirmed the expectation that omission errors were a prime source of inaccuracy in vegetated environments. Further evaluation exposed a tendency toward commission error in coniferous forests. Improvements to the subpixel level “partial surface water” (PSW) component of DSWE was the focus of this research. Spectral mixture models were created from a variety of laboratory and image-derived endmembers. Based on the mixture modeling, a more “aggressive” PSW rule improved accuracy in herbaceous wetlands and reduced errors of commission elsewhere, while a second “conservative” test provides an alternative when commission errors must be minimized. Replication of the EDEN-based experiments using the revised PSW tests yielded a statistically significant increase in mean overall agreement (4%, p = 0.01, n = 50) and a statistically significant decrease (11%, p = 0.009, n = 50) in mean errors of omission. Because the developed spectral mixture models included image-derived vegetation endmembers and laboratory spectra for soil groups found across the US, simulations suggest where the revised DSWE PSW tests perform as they do in the Everglades and where they may prove problematic. Visual comparison of DSWE outputs with an unusual variety of coincidently collected images for locations spread throughout the US support conclusions drawn from Everglades quantitative analyses and highlight DSWE PSW component strengths and weaknesses.

Remote Sensing

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report

Application of a hybrid model to reduce bias and improve precision in population estimates for elk (Cervus elaphus) inhabiting a cold desert ecosystem

Accurately estimating the size of wildlife populations is critical to wildlife management and conservation of species. Raw counts or “minimum counts” are still used as a basis for wildlife management decisions. Uncorrected raw counts are not only negatively biased due to failure to account for undetected animals, but also provide no estimate of precision on which to judge the utility of counts. We applied a hybrid population estimation technique that combined sightability modeling, radio collar-based mark-resight, and simultaneous double count (double-observer) modeling to estimate the population size of elk in a high elevation desert ecosystem. Combining several models maximizes the strengths of each individual model while minimizing their singular weaknesses. We collected data with aerial helicopter surveys of the elk population in the San Luis Valley and adjacent mountains in Colorado State, USA in 2005 and 2007. We present estimates from 7 alternative analyses: 3 based on different methods for obtaining a raw count and 4 based on different statistical models to correct for sighting probability bias. The most reliable of these approaches is a hybrid double-observer sightability model (model M H ), which uses detection patterns of 2 independent observers in a helicopter plus telemetry-based detections of radio collared elk groups. Data were fit to customized mark-resight models with individual sighting covariates. Error estimates were obtained by a bootstrapping procedure. The hybrid method was an improvement over commonly used alternatives, with improved precision compared to sightability modeling and reduced bias compared to double-observer modeling. The resulting population estimate corrected for multiple sources of undercount bias that, if left uncorrected, would have underestimated the true population size by as much as 22.9%. Our comparison of these alternative methods demonstrates how various components of our method contribute to improving the final estimate and demonstrates why each is necessary.

Colorado

Environmental and anthropogenic drivers of contaminants in agricultural watersheds with implications for land management

If not managed properly, modern agricultural practices can alter surface and groundwater quality and drinking water resources resulting in potential negative effects on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Exposure to agriculturally derived contaminant mixtures has the potential to alter habitat quality and negatively affect fish and other aquatic organisms. Implementation of conservation practices focused on improving water quality continues to increase particularly in agricultural landscapes throughout the United States. The goal of this study was to determine the consequences of land management actions on the primary drivers of contaminant mixtures in five agricultural watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest watershed of the Atlantic Seaboard in North America where fish health issues have been documented for two decades. Surface water was collected and analyzed for 301 organic contaminants to determine the benefits of implemented best management practices (BMPs) designed to reduce nutrients and sediment to streams in also reducing contaminants in surface waters. Of the contaminants measured, herbicides (atrazine, metolachlor), phytoestrogens (formononetin, genistein, equol), cholesterol and total estrogenicity (indicator of estrogenic response) were detected frequently enough to statistically compare to seasonal flow effects, landscape variables and BMP intensity. Contaminant concentrations were often positively correlated with seasonal stream flow, although the magnitude of this effect varied by contaminant across seasons and sites. Land-use and other less utilized landscape variables including biosolids, manure and pesticide application and percent phytoestrogen producing crops were inversely related with site-average contaminant concentrations. Increased BMP intensity was negatively related to contaminant concentrations indicating potential co-benefits of BMPs for contaminant reduction in the studied watersheds. The information gained from this study will help prioritize ecologically relevant contaminant mixtures for monitoring and contributes to understanding the benefits of BMPs on improving surface water quality to better manage living resources in agricultural landscapes inside and outside the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv

Archive of digital chirp subbottom profile data collected during USGS cruise 12BIM03 offshore of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, July 2012

From July 23 - 31, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted geophysical surveys to investigate the geologic controls on barrier island framework and long-term sediment transport along the oil spill mitigation sand berm constructed at the north end and just offshore of the Chandeleur Islands, La. (figure 1). This effort is part of a broader USGS study, which seeks to better understand barrier island evolution over medium time scales (months to years). This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital chirp subbottom data, trackline maps, navigation files, Geographic Information System (GIS) files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Gained (showing a relative increase in signal amplitude) digital images of the seismic profiles are also provided. Refer to the Abbreviations page for expansions of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 12BIM03 tells us the data were collected in 2012 during the third field activity for that project in that calendar year and BIM is a generic code, which represents efforts related to Barrier Island Mapping. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity ID. All chirp systems use a signal of continuously varying frequency; the EdgeTech SB-424 system used during this survey produces high-resolution, shallow-penetration (typically less than 50 milliseconds (ms)) profile images of sub-seafloor stratigraphy. The towfish contains a transducer that transmits and receives acoustic energy and is typically towed 1 - 2 m below the sea surface. As transmitted acoustic energy intersects density boundaries, such as the seafloor or sub-surface sediment layers, energy is reflected back toward the transducer, received, and recorded by a PC-based seismic acquisition system. This process is repeated at regular time intervals (for example, 0.125 seconds (s)) and returned energy is recorded for a specific duration (for example, 50 ms). In this way, a two-dimensional (2-D) vertical image of the shallow geologic structure beneath the ship track is produced. Figure 2 displays the acquisition geometry. Refer to table 1 for a summary of acquisition parameters and table 2 for trackline statistics. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG Y rev. 0 format (Barry and others, 1975); the first 3,200 bytes of the card image header are in ASCII format instead of EBCDIC format. The SEG Y files may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (SU) (Cohen and Stockwell, 2010). See the How To Download SEG Y Data page for download instructions. The web version of this archive does not contain the SEG Y trace files. These files are very large and would require extremely long download times. To obtain the complete DVD archive, contact USGS Information Services at 1-888-ASK-USGS or infoservices@usgs.gov. The printable profiles provided here are GIF images that were processed and gained using SU software and can be viewed from the Profiles page or from links located on the trackline maps; refer to the Software page for links to example SU processing scripts. The SEG Y files are available on the DVD version of this report or on the Web, downloadable via the USGS Coastal and Marine Geoscience Data System (http://cmgds.marine.usgs.gov). The data are also available for viewing using GeoMapApp (http://www.geomapapp.org) and Virtual Ocean (http://www.virtualocean.org) multi-platform open source software. Detailed information about the navigation system used can be found in table 1 and the Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs. To view the trackline maps and navigation files, and for more information about these items, see the Navigation page.

Louisiana

Analytical framework to estimate water use associated with continuous oil and gas development

An analytical framework was designed to estimate water use associated with continuous oil and gas (COG) development in support of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program. This framework was developed to better understand the relation between the production of COG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The total mean undiscovered, technically recoverable volume of COG has increased, highlighting the continued need to develop approaches to better characterize water use associated with COG development. The analytical framework can be used to estimate water use associated with COG development for three water-use components—direct, indirect, and ancillary water use—that are related to the life cycle of COG development. Direct water use is defined as water used in a wellbore to complete a well, including the water used for drilling, cementing, stimulating, and maintaining the well during production. Indirect water use is the water used at or near the well site, including water used for dust abatement, for cleaning equipment, and for crew and staff use. Ancillary water use is all other water used during the life cycle of COG development that is not categorized as direct or indirect, such as additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) related to COG development. The analytical framework includes the data inputs, the processes involved in estimating the water-use coefficients and analyzing their uncertainties, and the outputs. The analytical framework was developed as an R script, which contains the statistical models used to estimate water-use components. The availability of data across COG reservoirs in the United States is variable and presents challenges for estimating water use for extracting COG from their reservoirs; thus, the R script can be modified for the types of data available within a COG reservoir, the extent and resolution of data available for each water-use component, and the desired output of the water-use assessment. The script was written so that the units of the data in the script were standardized. Water-use estimates were simulated for the mean and 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the data distributions. Uncertainties were quantified with confidence intervals for the estimated coefficients. Uncertainty for estimated or simulated data can be calculated with the R script by providing a range of representative values that are within the appropriate confidence intervals of the mean of the data.

Lower 48 states