Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Past Global Changes”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

382 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3??C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

Global Change Biology

Agriculture

Agricultural production is a fundamental activity conducted on 45% of the U.S. land area, 55% of Mexico’s land area, and 7% of Canada’s land area (World Bank 2016). Because of this vast spatial extent and the strong role that land management plays in how agricultural ecosystems function, agricultural lands and activities represent a large portion of the North American carbon budget. Accordingly, improved quantification of the agricultural carbon cycle, new trends in agriculture, and added opportunities for emissions reductions provide a critical foundation for considering the relationships between agriculture and carbon cycling at local, regional, continental, and global scales. More than 145 countries have specifically included agriculture in their targets and actions for mitigating climate change (FAO 2016), and agriculture has featured particularly prominently in recent target and action commitments made by developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015). Conversion of vast native forest and prairie to agriculture across North America between 1860 and 1960 resulted in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes to the atmosphere from biota and soils that exceeded those from fossil fuel emissions over the same period (Houghton et al., 1983). Correspondingly, soil organic carbon (SOC) declined in many soils during the 50 years following conversion from native ecosystems to production agriculture (Huggins et al., 1998; Janzen et al., 1998; Slobodian et al., 2002). Crop yields and corresponding above- and belowground biomass have steadily increased since the 1930s due to genetic and management innovations, which provide more organic input from which to build SOC ( Johnson et al., 2006; Hatfield and Walthall 2015). This, coupled with improved input-use efficiencies may reduce GHG-emissions per unit yield (GHG intensity), with additional improvements possible through management optimization (Grassini and Cassman 2012; Pittelkow et al., 2015). Options include reducing tillage, integrating perennials onto the landscape, reducing or eliminating bare-fallow land (i.e., land without living plants), adding cover crops, and enrolling lands in conservation easement programs. These options, originally proposed to control erosion, have potential co-benefits in terms of increased soil health, plant productivity, and soil carbon stabilization (Lehman et al., 2015). Conversely, returning lands previously enrolled in conservation easements (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program [CRP] and other land set-aside efforts) to row-crop production, tillage, or aggressive harvesting of crop residues all risk degrading soil quality and exacerbating SOC loss. Of note is that the net results of land use and land management practices in an agricultural setting vary according to many factors, such as crop or production system type, soil type, climate, and the collection of practices at any given site. For example, many traditional practices followed by Indigenous people on tribal lands are based on an integrated approach to natural resource management and response to environmental change that may provide agricultural options uniquely suited to varied environmental settings (see Ch. 7: Tribal Lands, p. 303). Agricultural land in the United States totaled 408.2 million hectares (ha) in 2014, of which 251 million ha were in permanent meadows and pastures, 152.2 million ha were in arable land, and 2.6 million ha were in permanent crops (FAOSTAT 2016). Compared with the distribution in 2007, these numbers reflect a 4.7 million ha decline in total agricultural lands, driven by declines in arable land and permanent crops but partially offset by a modest increase in permanent meadows and pastures. Although arable lands have been declining, the combined acreage of the four major crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton) has risen slightly, with increases in land planted in corn and soybeans and decreases in cotton and wheat (see Figure 5.1, p. 232). Despite the overall slight decline in agricultural land area, the value of U.S. agricultural production rose over the past decade as a result of increased production efficiency and higher prices (USDA 2017a; see also www.ers.usda.gov). Canada has about 65 million ha of agricultural land, of which about 46 million ha are arable, accounting for only about 7% of the country’s total land area (FAOSTAT 2017). Prominent crops on Canada’s arable lands include cereals (e.g., wheat, barley, and maize), oilseeds (e.g., canola and soybeans), and pulses (e.g., peas and lentils). Natural and seeded pastures available for grazing in Canada make up about 20 million ha (Legesse et al., 2016). Agricultural land in Mexico makes up 107 million ha, of which 23 million ha are arable land, 2.7 million ha are permanent crops, and 81 million ha are permanent meadows and pastures (FAOSTAT 2017). Mexico’s major crops are fruits, corn, grains, vegetables, and sugarcane.

Report

Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ 18 O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ 18 O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ 18 O and δ 2 H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ 18 O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ 18 O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ 18 O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ 18 O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ 18 O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ 18 O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ 18 O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive regional precipitation-δ 18 O responses to Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability, which in turn, will lead to a better understanding of internal Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability and its response to external climate forcing mechanisms.

North American Rocky Mountain

Users and uses of Landsat 8 satellite imagery—2014 survey results

Executive Summary In 2013, Landsat 8 began adding high quality, global, moderate-resolution imagery to the more than 40-year archive of Landsat imagery. To assess the potential effects of the availability of Landsat 8 imagery on users and their work, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Remote Sensing Program (LRS) initiated a survey of Landsat users. The objectives of the survey were to 1. Characterize various Landsat user groups, such as United States (U.S.) and international users and Landsat 8 and non-Landsat 8 users; 2. Identify any differences among user groups in uses and preferences; 3. Measure the importance of and satisfaction with Landsat 8 attributes; 4. Assess the importance to users of the frequency of usable imagery; and 5. Determine any challenges in using Landsat 8. The online survey was sent to 51,617 Landsat users registered with USGS in May 2014. Almost 13,000 people responded to the survey for a response rate of 25 percent (n = 12,966). Current Landsat users (users who had used Landsat in their work in the year prior to the survey) composed 89 percent of the sample (n = 11,549) and past Landsat users composed 11 percent (n = 1,417). The results reported here apply to current Landsat users registered with the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. Users from 161 countries responded to the survey. Of those, 19 percent were citizens or permanent residents of the United States and 81 percent resided in other countries. More than 70 percent of current users had used Landsat 8 in the year prior to the survey. The majority of Landsat 8 users (65 percent) were established users who used Landsat imagery regularly both before and after Landsat 8 imagery became available. The average current Landsat user was male, 36 years old, and highly educated, with 9 years of experience using satellite imagery or geographic information system (GIS) software. Landsat 8 users had, on average, two more years of experience than non-Landsat 8 users. Users were employed predominantly by academic institutions (65 percent), followed by private businesses (13 percent), Federal governments (10 percent), State and local governments (6 percent), and nonprofit organizations (6 percent). Of the Landsat imagery obtained in the past year by current users, on average 31 percent came from a Landsat 8 sensor. An equivalent amount came from the Landsat 7 ETM+ sensor (33 percent); slightly less came from Landsats 4 and 5 TM sensors (27 percent). Much less came from Landsats 1 through 5 MSS sensors (5 percent). Overall, more than a third of users’ work used Landsat imagery (38 percent). Of this work, on average, 37 percent of the work was operational. Landsat 8 users considered a greater proportion of their work operational than non-Landsat 8 users (39 percent compared with 29 percent). Environmental sciences and management were the most commonly selected primary applications (selected by 42 percent of users). Land use/land cover (23 percent) was the second most commonly selected primary application, followed by education (12 percent), agriculture (9 percent), and planning and development (6 percent). Landsat 8 users were asked to rank the importance of certain attributes in determining whether to use Landsat 8 imagery in their work. The archive was ranked most important, followed by cost, spatial resolution, extent of coverage, data quality, and frequency of revisit. Users were asked how satisfied they were with these same attributes as they currently apply to Landsat 8 imagery. On average, users were most satisfied with lack of cost, extent of coverage, data quality, and the archive, but they were satisfied with all attributes. Users were asked how often they needed Landsat imagery to meet various requirements for their primary application. The survey question specifically asked how often users needed usable imagery, which differs from how often they would like the Landsat satellites to acquire an image. Users were asked to identify their needed frequency of usable imagery for the following levels: 1. Threshold level—the minimum frequency of usable imagery needed to be of any value to their primary application. 2. Breakthrough level—the frequency of usable imagery that would result in a significant improvement for their primary application of the imagery. 3. Target level—the frequency of usable imagery that would only provide a limited additional increase in the expected performance for their primary application. To meet the threshold level, three-quarters of users needed usable imagery every 17 days or less frequently. At the breakthrough level, two-thirds of users (64 percent) needed a usable image every 5–16 days. The current constellation of two satellites (Landsat 7 and 8) is capable of meeting the threshold and breakthrough needs of most users at least some of the time, but a single satellite would be highly unlikely to do so. Two-fifths of users (40 percent) felt that usable imagery provided every 4 days or more frequently would meet their target level which the current Landsat constellation cannot provide. Landsat 8 users were significantly more likely than non-Landsat 8 users to need usable imagery more frequently to meet their target levels. Additionally, U.S. Landsat 8 users were significantly more likely than other Landsat users to need usable imagery more frequently in order meet both their breakthrough and target levels. To explore the effect of the availability of Landsat 8 imagery on Landsat imagery use in general, established users (those who had consistently used Landsat imagery both before and after Landsat 8 imagery became available) using Landsat 8 imagery were asked about changes in the amount of Landsat imagery they used. The majority of established users using Landsat 8 imagery (60 percent) reported an average increase of 51 percent in the number of scenes obtained after Landsat 8 imagery became available. Landsat 8 users were asked if they had encountered challenges in using Landsat 8 whereas non-Landsat 8 users were asked if such challenges had played a role in why they were not using Landsat 8 imagery. Although many users did not encounter challenges when using or trying to use Landsat 8 data, slightly less than 30 percent did encounter issues with processing the data to a usable point. The most common issue reported was not being able to create or have access to a surface reflectance corrected product. Other challenges were related to the file sizes of images being too large to download, store, or analyze. There were no statistically significant differences between Landsat 8 and non-Landsat 8 users in terms of challenges encountered when using or trying to use the imagery, which indicates that users were not unduly discouraged by the challenges they may have encountered. When asked about potential consequences of not using Landsat 8, more than half of the non-Landsat 8 users did not report detrimental effects on their work from not using the imagery. Of those who did report detrimental effects, decreased quality of work, decreased scope of work, and increased time spent on work were the most common.

Open-File Report