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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

USGS2020

The seasonal energetic landscape of an apex marine carnivore, the polar bear

Divergent movement strategies have enabled wildlife populations to adapt to environmental change. In recent decades, the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) has developed a divergent movement strategy in response to diminishing sea ice where the majority of the subpopulation (73–85%) stays on the sea ice in summer and the remaining bears move to land. Although declines in sea ice are generally considered a challenge to energy balance in polar bears residing in some regions of the Arctic, little quantitative data exists concerning the seasonal energy expenditures of this apex marine carnivore. We used GPS satellite collars with tri-axial accelerometers and conductivity sensors to measure the location, behavior, and energy expenditure of five adult female polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea across seasons of sea ice breakup and minimum extent. Using a Bayesian mixed-effects model, we found that energy expenditure was influenced by month, ocean depth, and habitat type (sea ice or land). Total energy expenditure from May to October ranged from 37.7 – 47.2 mJ kg-1 for individual bears. Bears that moved to land expended 7% more energy on average from May to October than bears that remained on the receding sea ice. In August, when bears were moving from the sea ice to land or moving north with the receding pack ice, bears that moved to land spent 7% more time swimming and expended 22% more energy. Meaning the immediate cost of moving to land exceeded the cost of remaining on the receding summer pack ice. These findings suggest a physiological reason why the majority of the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation continues to inhabit a diminishing summer ice platform. However, bears that moved to land spent 29% more time in preferred hunting habitats over the continental shelf than bears that remained on the sea ice. Bears on land also had access to subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses. Hence, our findings indicate there may be a greater overall energetic benefit to move to land in this region, which suggests that the use of the diminishing summer sea ice may be functioning as an ecological trap.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Why large cells dominate estuarine phytoplankton

Surveys across the world oceans have shown that phytoplankton biomass and production are dominated by small cells (picoplankton) where nutrient concentrations are low, but large cells (microplankton) dominate when nutrient-rich deep water is mixed to the surface. I analyzed phytoplankton size structure in samples collected over 25 yr in San Francisco Bay, a nutrient-rich estuary. Biomass was dominated by large cells because their biomass selectively grew during blooms. Large-cell dominance appears to be a characteristic of ecosystems at the land–sea interface, and these places may therefore function as analogs to oceanic upwelling systems. Simulations with a size-structured NPZ model showed that runs of positive net growth rate persisted long enough for biomass of large, but not small, cells to accumulate. Model experiments showed that small cells would dominate in the absence of grazing, at lower nutrient concentrations, and at elevated (+5°C) temperatures. Underlying these results are two fundamental scaling laws: (1) large cells are grazed more slowly than small cells, and (2) grazing rate increases with temperature faster than growth rate. The model experiments suggest testable hypotheses about phytoplankton size structure at the land–sea interface: (1) anthropogenic nutrient enrichment increases cell size; (2) this response varies with temperature and only occurs at mid-high latitudes; (3) large-cell blooms can only develop when temperature is below a critical value, around 15°C; (4) cell size diminishes along temperature gradients from high to low latitudes; and (5) large-cell blooms will diminish or disappear where planetary warming increases temperature beyond their critical threshold.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS2007

Reducing energy-related CO 2 emissions using accelerated weathering of limestone

The use and impacts of accelerated weathering of limestone (AWL; reaction: CO 2 +H 2 O+CaCO 3 →Ca 2+ +2(HCO 3 - ) is explored as a CO 2 capture and sequestration method. It is shown that significant limestone resources are relatively close to a majority of CO 2 -emitting power plants along the coastal US, a favored siting location for AWL. Waste fines, representing more than 20% of current US crushed limestone production (>10 9 tonnes/yr), could provide an inexpensive or free source of AWL carbonate. With limestone transportation then as the dominant cost variable, CO 2 mitigation costs of $3-$4/tonne appear to be possible in certain locations. Perhaps 10–20% of US point–source CO 2 emissions could be mitigated in this fashion. It is experimentally shown that CO 2 sequestration rates of 10 -6 to 10 -5 moles/sec per m 2 of limestone surface area are achievable, with reaction densities on the order of 10 -2 tonnes CO 2 m -3 day -1 , highly dependent on limestone particle size, solution turbulence and flow, and CO 2 concentration. Modeling shows that AWL would allow carbon storage in the ocean with significantly reduced impacts to seawater pH relative to direct CO 2 disposal into the atmosphere or sea. The addition of AWL-derived alkalinity to the ocean may itself be beneficial for marine biota.

Energy↗

USGS1999

Plate deformation at depth under northern California: Slab gap or stretched slab?

Plate kinematic interpretations for northern California predict a gap in the underlying subducted slab caused by the northward migration of the Pacific-North America-Juan de Fuca triple junction. However, large-scale decompression melting and asthenospheric upwelling to the base of the overlying plate within the postulated gap are not supported by geophysical and geochemical observations. We suggest a model for the interaction between the three plates which is compatible with the observations. In this 'slab stretch' model the Juan de Fuca plate under coastal northern California deforms by stretching and thinning to fill the geometrical gap formed in the wake of the northward migrating Mendocino triple junction. The stretching is in response to boundary forces acting on the plate. The thinning results in an elevated geothermal gradient, which may be roughly equivalent to a 4 Ma oceanic lithosphere, still much cooler than that inferred by the slab gap model. We show that reequilibration of this geothermal gradient under 20-30 km thick overlying plate can explain the minor Neogene volcanic activity, its chemical composition, and the heat flow. In contrast to northern California, geochemical and geophysical consequences of a 'true' slab gap can be observed in the California Inner Continental Borderland offshore Los Angeles, where local asthenospheric upwelling probably took place during the Miocene as a result of horizontal extension and rotation of the overlying plate. The elevated heat flow in central California can be explained by thermal reequilibration of the stalled Monterey microplate under the Coast Ranges, rather than by a slab gap or viscous shear heating in the mantle.

California↗

USGS2003

Latitudinal comparisons of walleye growth in North America and factors influencing growth of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs

We compared the growth of walleyes Stizostedion vitreum in Kansas to that of other populations throughout North America and determined the effects of the abundance of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum and temperature on the growth of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs. Age was estimated from scales and otoliths collected from walleyes (N = 2,072) sampled with gill nets from eight Kansas reservoirs during fall in 1991-1999. Age-0 gizzard shad abundance was indexed based on summer seining information, and temperature data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Parameter estimates of von Bertalanffy growth models indicated that the growth of walleyes in Kansas was more similar to that of southern latitude populations (e.g., Mississippi and Texas) than to that of northern (e.g., Manitoba, Minnesota and South Dakota) or middle latitude (e.g., Colorado and Iowa) populations. Northern and middle latitude populations had lower mean back-calculated lengths at age 1, lower growth coefficients, and greater longevity than southern and Kansas populations. A relative growth index (RGI; [Lt/Ls ] ?? 100, where Lt is the observed length at age and Ls is the age-specific standard length derived from a pooled von Bertalanffy growth model) and standardized percentile values (percentile values of mean back-calculated lengths at age) indicated that the growth of walleyes in Kansas was above average compared with that of other populations in North America. The annual growth increments of Kansas walleyes were more variable among years than among reservoirs. The growth increments of age-0 and age-1 walleyes were positively related to the catch rates of gizzard shad smaller than 80 mm, whereas the growth of age-2 and age-3 walleyes was inversely related to mean summer air temperature. Our results provide a framework for comparing North American walleye populations, and our proposed RGI provides a simple, easily interpreted index of growth.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2022

Extending the Stream Salmonid Simulator to accommodate the life history of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Klamath River Basin, Northern California

In this report, we apply the stream salmonid simulator (S3) to coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in the Klamath River Basin by extending the original model to account for life history and disease dynamics specific to coho salmon. This version of S3 includes tracking of three separate life-history strategies representing the different time periods and ages at which fish leave natal tributaries such as the Scott and Shasta Rivers (age-0 spring, age-0 fall, or age-1 smolt). Once fish leave their natal tributaries and enter the Klamath River, the deterministic life-stage-structured population model simulates daily growth, movement, and survival. We extend the model to include non-natal tributary dynamics, where spring age-0 fish entry to non-natal tributaries is simulated based on environmental conditions in the main-stem Klamath River. Fish that use non-natal tributaries then reenter the Klamath River during the winter or spring as smolts and actively migrate downstream. We also consider the life history strategy where fish rear in natal tributaries and enter the Klamath River as age-1 smolts. In addition to simulating different life history pathways that coho salmon may take, we model disease dynamics, incorporating new information on Ceratonova shasta related infection and mortality. We incorporate competitive interactions between juvenile coho and Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) by simulating density-dependent movement dynamics in response to Chinook salmon abundance. Model simulations suggest that total abundance and survival to the ocean differed between life-history strategies. In general, spring age-0 fish that leave their natal tributaries in their first spring had lower survival compared with fish that remained in natal tributaries and out-migrated later. Spring age-0 fish also had higher disease related mortality, owing to their residence in the main-stem Klamath River overlapping with periods of elevated C. shasta spore concentrations. Age-0 fish leaving their natal tributaries in the fall had near-zero disease related mortality. Most non-natal tributary use occurred at upstream tributary locations and was variable between the brood years depending on passage timing and environmental conditions. The inclusion of Chinook salmon in simulations resulted in decreased abundance and survival of Coho salmon reaching the ocean. In addition, we developed an R package to facilitate use of and continued development of S3 as a tool to guide management of juvenile salmonid populations.

California↗

USGS2008

Recovery of Ground-Water Levels From 1988 to 2003 and Analysis of Potential Water-Supply Management Options in Critical Area 1, East-Central New Jersey

Water levels in four confined aquifers in the New Jersey Coastal Plain within Water Supply Critical Area 1 have recovered as a result of reductions in ground-water withdrawals initiated by the State in the late 1980s. The aquifers are the Wenonah-Mount Laurel, the Upper and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy, and Englishtown aquifer system. Because of increased water demand due to increased development in Monmouth, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties, five base and nine alternate management models were designed for the four aquifers to evaluate the effects resulting from potential reallocation of part of the Critical Area 1 reductions in withdrawals. The change in withdrawals and associated water-level changes in the aquifers for 1988-2003 are discussed. Generally, withdrawals decreased 25 to 30 Mgal/d (million gallons per day), and water levels increased 0 to 80 ft (feet). The Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) ground-water-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to simulate ground-water flow and optimize withdrawals using the Ground-Water Management Process (GWM) for MODFLOW. Results of the model were used to evaluate the effects of several possible water-supply management options in order to provide the information to water managers. The optimization method, which provides a means to set constraints that support mandated hydrologic conditions, then determine the maximum withdrawals that meet the constraints, is a more cost-effective approach than simulating a range of withdrawals to determine the effects on the aquifer system. The optimization method is particularly beneficial for a regional-scale study of this kind because of the large number of wells to be evaluated. Before the model was run, a buffer analysis was done to define an area with no additional withdrawals that minimizes changes in simulated streamflow in aquifer outcrop areas and simulated movement of ground water toward the wells from areas of possible high chloride concentrations in the northern and southern parts of the Critical Area. Five base water-supply management models were developed. Each management model has an objective function, decision variables, and constraints. Two of the five management models were test cases: clean slate option and reallocation from the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and Englishtown aquifer system to small volume wells for potable water use. Nine other models also were developed as part of a trade-off analysis between withdrawal amounts and constraint values. The 14 management models included current (2003) or regularly spaced well locations with variations on the constraints of ground-water head, drawdown, velocity at the 250-mg/L (milligram per liter) isochlor, and withdrawal rate. Results of each management model were evaluated in terms of withdrawals, heads, saltwater intrusion, and source of water by aquifer. Each trade-off curve was defined by using six to nine separate management model runs. Results of the management models designed in this study indicate that a withdrawal reallocation of 5 to 20 Mgal/d within Critical Area 1 would increase the area of heads below -30 ft and the velocity at the 250-mg/L isochlor by up to 4 times that of the simulated 2003 results; the range of values are 0 to 521 square miles and 1 to 20 feet per year, respectively. The increase in area of heads below -30 ft was larger in the Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer than in other aquifers because that area was negligible in 2003. The range of modeled withdrawals is closely tied to management-model design. Interpretation of management model results is provided as well as a discussion of limitations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Database of topo-bathy cross-shore profiles and characteristics for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastlines

A database of seamless topographic and bathymetric cross-shore profiles along with metrics of the associated morphological characteristics based on the latest available lidar data ranging from 2011–2020 and bathymetry from the Continuously Updated Digital Elevation Model was developed for U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico open-ocean sandy coastlines. Cross-shore resolution ranges from 2.5 m for topographic and nearshore portions to 10 m for offshore portions. Topographic morphological characteristics include: foredune crest elevation, foredune toe elevation, foredune width, foredune volume, foredune relative height, beach width, beach volume, beach slope, and nearshore slope. This database was developed to serve as inputs for current and future morphological modeling studies aimed at providing real-time estimates of coastal change magnitudes resulting from imminent tropical storm and hurricane landfall. Beyond this need for model inputs, the database of cross-shore profiles and characteristic metrics could serve as a tool for coastal scientists to visualize and to analyze varying local, regional, and national variations in coastal morphology for varying types of studies and projects related to Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastline environments.

Data↗

USGS2022

Life-cycle model reveals sensitive life stages and evaluates recovery options for a dwindling Pacific salmon population

Population models, using empirical survival rates estimates for different life stages, can help managers explore whether various management options could stabilize a declining population or restore it to former levels of abundance. Here we used two decades of data on five life stages of the Cedar River, USA Sockeye Salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka , population to create and parameterize a life-cycle model. This formerly large but unproductive population is now in steep decline, despite hatchery enhancement. We gathered population-specific data on survival during five stages: 1) egg-to-fry, 2) fry-to-presmolt, 3) presmolt-to-adult return from the ocean, 4) adult en route from the ocean to the spawning grounds, and 5) reproduction. We ground-truthed the model to ensure its fit to the data, and then we modified survival and other parameters during various stages to examine future scenarios. Our analyses revealed that low survival of juveniles in Lake Washington (stage 2: averaging only 3% over the last 20 years), survival of adults returning to fresh water to spawn (stage 4), and survival of adults on spawning grounds to reproduce (stage 5) are likely limiting factors. Combined increases in these stages and others (specifically, the proportion of fish taken into the hatchery to be spawned) might also recover the population. As in other integrated hatchery populations, managers must weigh options relating to balancing the fraction of natural- and hatchery-origin fish, and our results showed that increasing the fraction of fish taken into the hatchery alone will not recover the population. Our model brings together population-specific data to help managers weigh conservation strategies and understand which stages and habitats are most limiting and how much survival must increase to achieve recovery targets. By extension, our analyses also reveal the utility of such models in other cases where stage-specific data are available.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2012

Origin of Hawaiian tholeiite: A metasomatic model

Two voluminous magma types generated in the mantle underlying the Pacific plate are mid‐ocean ridge tholeiite (MORB) erupted at the East Pacific Rise spreading center and Hawaiian tholeiite (HT) erupted above the Hawaiian hot spot or melting anomaly. MORB has low initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and low amounts of all incompatible trace elements including rare earths; chondrite‐normalized patterns are depleted in light rare earths. HT, by contrast, has higher initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and higher amounts of incompatible trace elements; chondrite‐nor‐malized patterns are enriched in the middle and light rare earths. HT is generally poorer in CaO and Al 2 O 3 and much richer in total iron and TiO 2 compared with MORB having the same MgO content. Primary magma compositions for the two volcanic systems are calculated in Fe‐Mg equilibrium with residual olivine (Fo 92 ). MORB is generated by partial melting of a trace element depleted Iherzolite source leaving a residual assemblage dominated by olivine and orthopyroxene. The percentage of partial melting for a primary magma containing 15% MgO is calculated to be 35–42% in a source mantle having a heavy rare earth content of 3×chondrite and 33–35% MgO. HT, represented by Kilauea tholeiite, is generated by partial melting of a mixture of unmelted and residual mantle for MORB which has been modified by metasomatic addition of a nephelinitic fluid, amphibole, and minor amounts of apatite and Fe‐bearing phases such as sulfide and magnetite/ilmenite. This model yields a picritic magma in equilbrium with magnesian dunite at high (>40%) degrees of partial melting. The source also has 35% MgO before partial melting. Melting in both systems in polyvariant and not controlled by lower‐temperature invariant equilibria. The low‐velocity zone is considered to be the source of metasomatic fluids that are driven upward into the lowermost lithosphere in response to a thermal plume. Picritic primary magmas are produced by shear melting, localized in the zone of thinned and metasomatized lithosphere beneath Hawaii. Melt extraction is rapid and episodic at intervals of months to decades; magma is not stored in the mantle but passes upward to a plexus of storage reservoirs located 2–6 km beneath the surface of Kilauea. Kilauea primary magmas fractionate olivine during upward transport to reach bulk compositions of 13–14% MgO in storage. Different magma batches erupted to the surface, distinguished by different major and minor element compositons compared at similar MgO content, represent combinations of differing degrees of metasomatic enrichment, differing degrees of partial melting, and some effects of premelting mantle heterogeneity.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m 3 s −1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

New York↗

USGS2024

The evolution of a young ocean within Mimas

The fractured, young surfaces on confirmed ocean worlds such as Europa and Enceladus suggest that ocean-bearing moons with relatively thin overlying ice shells should be easy to identify. Hence, the discovery that Mimas’ rotation state is best explained by an internal ocean seems challenging to reconcile with its heavily cratered surface. Previous studies have shown that an internal ocean is compatible with Mimas’ geology as long as the ice shell has been thinning throughout the surface age. This scenario has yet to be placed into context within Mimas’ thermal-orbital history, in particular, the link between tidal dissipation and orbit circularization. Here, we model Mimas’ coupled thermal-orbital evolution, and the implications of an emerging ocean on Mimas’ geology, to determine whether a thinning ice shell is feasible. We find that the ice shell can thin – and the ocean grow – even as the eccentricity decays due to tidal dissipation as long as the ocean formed within the past 10 – 15 million years and the onset of melting occurred when Mimas’ eccentricity was between 2.5 and 3 times the present-day value. As Mimas’ eccentricity continues to decay, the ocean will likely enter an epoch of freezing, leading to fractures within the ice shell and eruptions of ocean material at the surface, before freezing completely. These results suggest that Mimas, Enceladus, and Tethys may represent three points along a continuum of ocean initiation, growth, and loss.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2014

Predicting spatial and temporal distribution of Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans ) in Biscayne Bay through habitat suitability modeling

Invasive species may exhibit higher levels of growth and reproduction when environmental conditions are most suitable, and thus their effects on native fauna may be intensified. Understanding potential impacts of these species, especially in the nascent stages of a biological invasion, requires critical information concerning spatial and temporal distributions of habitat suitability. Using empirically supported environmental variables (e.g., temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, rugosity, and benthic substrate), our models predicted habitat suitability for the invasive lionfish ( Pterois volitans ) in Biscayne Bay, Florida. The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a platform for the modeling process allowed us to quantify correlations between temporal (seasonal) fluctuations in the above variables and the spatial distribution of five discrete habitat quality classes, whose ranges are supported by statistical deviations from the apparent best conditions described in prior studies. Analysis of the resulting models revealed little fluctuation in spatial extent of the five habitat classes on a monthly basis. Class 5, which represented the area with environmental variables closest to the best conditions for lionfish, occupied approximately one-third of Biscayne Bay, with subsequent habitats declining in area. A key finding from this study was that habitat suitability increased eastward from the coastline, where higher quality habitats were adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean and displayed marine levels of ambient water quality. Corroboration of the models with sightings from the USGS-NAS database appeared to support our findings by nesting 79 % of values within habitat class 5; however, field testing (i.e., lionfish surveys) is necessary to confirm the relationship between habitat classes and lionfish distribution.

Florida↗

USGS1980

Circum-arctic plate accretion - Isolating part of a pacific plate to form the nucleus of the Arctic Basin

A mosaic of large lithospheric plates rims the Arctic Ocean Basin, and foldbelts between these plates contain numerous allochthonous microplates. A new model for continental drift and microplate accretion proposes that prior to the late Mesozoic the Kula plate extended from the Pacific into the Arctic. By a process of circumpolar drift and microplate accretion, fragments of the Pacific basin, including parts of the Kula plate, were cut off and isolated in the Arctic Ocean, the Yukon-Koyukuk basin in Alaska, and the Bering Sea.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2009

New quantitative evidence of extreme warmth in the Pliocene Arctic

The most recent geologic interval characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century occurred about 3.3 to 3.0 Ma, during the mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene Epoch. Climate reconstructions of this warm period are integral to both understanding past warm climate equilibria and to predicting responses to today's transient climate. The Arctic Ocean is of particular interest because in this region climate proxies are rare, and climate models struggle to predict climate sensitivity and the response of sea ice. In order to provide the first quantitative climate data from this region during this interval, sea surface temperatures (SST) were estimated from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 907 and 909 in the Nordic Seas and from Site 911 in the Arctic Ocean based on Mg/Ca of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin) and alkenone unsaturation indices. Evidence of much warmer than modern conditions in the Arctic Ocean during the mid-Piacenzian with temperatures as high as 18C is presented. In addition, SST anomalies (mid-Piacenzian minus modern) increase with latitude across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic, extending and confirming a reduced mid-Piacenzian pole-to-equator temperature gradient. The agreement between proxies and with previously documented qualitative assessments of intense warming in this region corroborate a poleward transport of heat and an at least seasonally ice-free Arctic, conditions that may serve as a possible analog to future climate if the current rate of Arctic sea-ice reduction continues.

Stratigraphy↗

USGS2022

Monitoring offshore CO2 sequestration using marine CSEM methods; constraints inferred from field- and laboratory-based gas hydrate studies

Offshore geological sequestration of CO 2 offers a viable approach for reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Strategies include injection of CO 2 into the deep-ocean or ocean-floor sediments, whereby depending on pressure–temperature conditions, CO 2 can be trapped physically, gravitationally, or converted to CO 2 hydrate. Energy-driven research continues to also advance CO 2 -for-CH 4 replacement strategies in the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), producing methane for natural gas needs while sequestering CO 2 . In all cases, safe storage of CO 2 requires reliable monitoring of the targeted CO 2 injection sites and the integrity of the repository over time, including possible leakage. Electromagnetic technologies used for oil and gas exploration, sensitive to electrical conductivity, have long been considered an optimal monitoring method, as CO 2 , similar to hydrocarbons, typically exhibits lower conductivity than the surrounding medium. We apply 3D controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) forward modeling code to simulate an evolving CO 2 reservoir in deep-ocean sediments, demonstrating sufficient sensitivity and resolution of CSEM data to detect reservoir changes even before sophisticated inversion of data. Laboratory measurements place further constraints on evaluating certain systems within the GHSZ; notably, CO 2 hydrate is measurably weaker than methane hydrate, and >1 order of magnitude more conductive, properties that may affect site selection, stability, and modeling considerations.

Energies↗

USGS1998

On the influence of biomass burning on the seasonal CO2 signal as observed at monitoring stations

We investigated the role of biomass burning in simulating the seasonal signal in both prognostic and diagnostic analyses. The prognostic analysis involved the High-Resolution Biosphere Model, a prognostic terrestrial biosphere model, and the coupled vegetation fire module, which together produce a prognostic data set of biomass burning. The diagnostic analysis involved the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model (SDBM) and the Hao and Liu [1994] diagnostic data set of biomass burning, which have been scaled to global 2 and 4 Pg C yr −1 , respectively. The monthly carbon exchange fields between the atmosphere and the biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchange fields, and the emissions from fossil fuels have been coupled to the three-dimensional atmospheric transport model TM2. We have chosen eight monitoring stations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration network to compare the predicted seasonal atmospheric CO 2 signals with those deduced from atmosphere-biosphere carbon exchange fluxes without any contribution from biomass burning. The prognostic analysis and the diagnostic analysis with global burning emissions of 4 Pg C yr −1 agree with respect to the change in the amplitude of the seasonal CO 2 concentration introduced through biomass burning. We find that the seasonal CO 2 signal at stations in higher northern latitudes (north of 30°N) is marginally influenced by biomass burning. For stations in tropical regions an increase in the CO 2 amplitude of more than 1 ppmv (up to 50% with respect to the observed trough to peak amplitude) has been calculated. Biomass burning at stations farther south accounts for an increase in the CO 2 amplitude of up to 59% (0.6 ppmv). A change in the phase of the seasonal CO 2 signal at tropical and southern stations has been shown to be strongly influenced by the onset of biomass burning in southern tropical Africa and America. Comparing simulated and observed seasonal CO 2 signals, we find higher discrepancies at southern tropical stations if biomass burning emissions are included. This is caused by the additional increase in the amplitude in the prognostic analysis and a phase shift in a diagnostic analysis. In contrast, at the northern tropical stations biomass burning tends to improve the estimates of the seasonal CO 2 signal in the prognostic analysis because of strengthening of the amplitude. Since the SDBM predicts the seasonal CO 2 signal reasonably well for the northern hemisphere tropical stations, no general improvement of the fit occurs if biomass burning emissions are considered.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2011

Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32 000 km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC_RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC_RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC_RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction.

Journal of Flood Risk Management↗