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Stratigraphic controls on fluid and solute fluxes across the sediment-water interface of an estuary

Shallow stratigraphic features, such as infilled paleovalleys, modify fresh groundwater discharge to coastal waters and fluxes of saltwater and nutrients across the sediment–water interface. We quantify the spatial distribution of shallow surface water–groundwater exchange and nitrogen fluxes near a paleovalley in Indian River Bay, Delaware, using a hand resistivity probe, conventional seepage meters, and pore-water samples. In the interfluve (region outside the paleovalley) most nitrate-rich fresh groundwater discharges rapidly near the coast with little mixing of saline pore water, and nitrogen transport is largely conservative. In the peat-filled paleovalley, fresh groundwater discharge is negligible, and saltwater exchange is deep (∼1 m). Long pore-water residence times and abundant sulfate and organic matter promote sulfate reduction and ammonium production in shallow sediment. Reducing, iron-rich fresh groundwater beneath paleovalley peat discharges diffusely around paleovalley margins offshore. In this zone of diffuse fresh groundwater discharge, saltwater exchange and dispersion are enhanced, ammonium is produced in shallow sediments, and fluxes of ammonium to surface water are large. By modifying patterns of groundwater discharge and the nature of saltwater exchange in shallow sediments, paleovalleys and other stratigraphic features influence the geochemistry of discharging groundwater. Redox reactions near the sediment–water interface affect rates and patterns of geochemical fluxes to coastal surface waters. For example, at this site, more than 99% of the groundwater-borne nitrate flux to the Delaware Inland Bays occurs within the interfluve portion of the coastline, and more than 50% of the ammonium flux occurs at the paleovalley margin.

Delaware

Rhode Island and Landsat

Rhode Island is an oasis of natural calm surrounded by heavily urbanized East Coast areas, which may explain why the smallest State in the United States is such a popular tourist destination for residents of New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, or perhaps its popularity is a measure of the Ocean State’s abundant wildlife and picturesque views. Although small in land area, Rhode Island claims the largest estuary in New England in the 147-square-mile Narragansett Bay. Locals and visitors feast on clams caught in the bay, trek to glimpse shorebirds, or boat to 1 of 30 islands. As with any coastal State, the natural wonders of Rhode Island are affected by changes in sea levels and ocean temperatures. State agencies also work to fend off foes like the invasive Lymantria dispar (Linnaeus, 1758; spongy moth) and protect the forests that cover more than one-half of Rhode Island. The U.S. Geological Survey Landsat Program, with 54 plus years of recurring Earth observations from space, offers a unique and freely available public data source for the study of land and coastal change across Rhode Island and the United States. Here are just a few of the ways Landsat imagery has been used to benefit the State.

Rhode Island

Mass balance approach to selenium cycling through the San Joaquin Valley, sources to river to bay

Surface and ground waters of the Central Valley of California (e.g., rivers, dams, off-stream storage reservoirs, pumping facilities, irrigation and drinking water supply canals, agricultural drainage canals) are part of a hydrologic system that makes up a complex ecosystem extending from the riparian wetlands of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers through the San Francisco Bay/Delta Estuary to the Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Water quality concerns center on elevated selenium (Se) and salt concentrations in irrigation drainage water discharged into the waterways of the relatively arid San Joaquin Valley (SJV), including the San Joaquin River (SJR). These waters are made unique by dissolved Se, weathered from marine sedimentary rocks of the Coast Ranges to the west, being ultimately concentrated to toxic levels in aquatic wildlife in the wetlands of the SJV/SJR trough (Figs. 1 and 2) (Presser and Ohlendorf, 1987; Presser, 1994). Scientific and environmental concerns focus on the bioreactive properties of Se and its partitioning among biota, water, and sediment, and on whether simple dilution models can be applied to an element that bioaccumulates. Because of state and federal commitments to provide water for irrigation, as well as drainage of irriga­ tion wastewater by the year 2000 drainage from over 180,000 ha of seleniferous, salinized farmland within the western SJV will create approximately 387 million cubic meters of potentially toxic drainage water annually (i.e., “problem water,” as defined by the San Joaquin Valley Drainage Program, 1990), thus lending urgency to an understanding of the biogeochemistry of Se in this environment.

California

Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay

As a result of climate change and variability, sea level is rising throughout the world, but the rate along the east coast of the United States is higher than the global mean rate. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, Virginia, conducted a study to evaluate the effects of possible future sea-level rise on the salinity front in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay, the York River, and the Chickahominy/James River estuaries. Numerical modeling was used to represent sea-level rise and the resulting hydrologic effects. Estuarine models for the two tributaries were developed and model simulations were made by use of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. HEM-3D was used to simulate tides, tidal currents, and salinity for Chesapeake Bay, the York River and the Chickahominy/James River. The three sea-level rise scenarios that were evaluated showed an increase of 30, 50, and 100 centimeters (cm). Model results for both estuaries indicated that high freshwater river flow was effective in pushing the salinity back toward Chesapeake Bay. Model results indicated that increases in mean salinity will greatly alter the existing water-quality gradients between brackish water and freshwater. This will be particularly important for the freshwater part of the Chickahominy River, where a drinking-water-supply intake for the City of Newport News is located. Significant changes in the salinity gradients for the York River and Chickahominy/James River estuaries were predicted for the three sea-level rise scenarios. When a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario on the York River during a typical year (2005) was used, the model simulation showed a salinity of 15 parts per thousand (ppt) at river kilometer (km) 39. During a dry year (2002), the same salinity (15 ppt) was simulated at river km 45, which means that saltwater was shown to migrate 6 km farther upstream during a dry year than a typical year. The same was true of the Chickahominy River for a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario but to a greater extent; a salinity of 4 ppt was simulated at river km 13 during a typical year and at river km 28 during a dry year, indicating that saltwater migrated 15 km farther upstream during a dry year. Near a drinking-water intake on the Chickahominy River, for a dry year, salinity is predicted to more than double for all three sea-level rise scenarios, relative to a typical year. During a typical year at this location, salinity is predicted to increase to 0.006, 0.07, and more than 2 ppt for the 30-, 50-, and 100-cm rise scenarios, respectively.

Virginia

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series data catalog

In 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, which was designed to support research for implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created because Puget Sound was designated as one of 28 estuaries of National Significance under section 320 of the Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the environment of the Puget Sound Estuary by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded through the Assistance Program request for proposal process which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues, and includes the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature. These recommendations include a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas and recommendations for action. Four areas with recently acquired National Ocean Service hydrographic data are included in the Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series (fig. 1), each to be published individually as USGS Open File Reports at a scale of 1:40,000. The map products display seafloor geoforms, substrate, and biotopes using the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard. This data catalog contains much of the data used to prepare the SIMs in the Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series. Other data that were used to prepare the maps were compiled from previously published sources (for example, sediment samples and seismic reflection profiles) and are not included in this data series.

Washington

Contributions of erosion, deposition, and human activities to a change in sand storage in the bed of San Francisco Bay, California, 1980s to 2010s

This study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides estimates of the change in sand storage in bed sediments from the 1980s to 2010s in the San Francisco Bay area, California. The study is part of a larger project called “Research to Understand Impacts of Bay Sand Mining on Sand Transport in San Francisco Bay and the Outer Coast” that has the goal of providing information for the California Coastal Conservancy to inform decision making regarding sand mining activities. Information from this study will contribute to the sand budget for the San Francisco Bay system by accounting for sand made available by erosion of bay sediment and sequestered by deposition in the bay. Sediment budgets for estuaries typically account for change in sediment storage in the bed without discriminating for sediment size. However, the physics of mud and sand erosion, deposition, and transport differ. Sediment budgets that treat mud and sand separately give a more complete understanding of the system, including how human activities related to sediment size, such as sand mining, affect the system. We used bathymetric change analysis in combination with a three-dimensional model to generate estimates of net change in sand storage within the San Francisco Bay floor. We document sediment volume change from a 1980s bathymetric surface to a 2010s bathymetric surface, in combination with information on the sand content of the bed sediment derived from sediment cores and surface samples from six different sediment studies, to estimate the net change in sand volume in the bed of San Francisco Bay. This analysis includes areas heavily affected by human activities (such as sand mining, dredging, and sediment disposal) as well as regions more representative of natural transport processes. Overall, the sediment bed of San Francisco Bay is losing sand. Across the total area surveyed in San Francisco Bay, including areas affected by natural processes, oyster shell beds, and human activities, a net loss of about 17 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) of sand from the sediment bed occurred from the 1980s to 2010s, at a rate of about 0.8 Mm 3 per year. For the period of this study, sand loss from bed level changes in permitted sand-lease mining areas (about 11 Mm 3 ) accounts for about two-thirds of the total sand loss throughout the study area. It is important to consider potential uncertainty bounds when interpreting these findings. A key part of the report is an assessment of the uncertainties in our estimates of sand volumes. We estimate that variability in modeled sand content values of Bay floor sediments could result in an uncertainty of approximately 25 percent of the net sand volume change. Even larger uncertainty amounts may be associated with uncertainty in the systematic errors in the bathymetric surveys. Further refining estimates of uncertainty in bathymetric change is important in guiding the use of this study. The results presented here can fill a critical gap that may enable the creation of the first comprehensive sand budget of San Francisco Bay.

California

Phytoplankton biomass dynamics in wet (2019) and dry (2023) years in Lake Pontchartrain estuary, Louisiana from Sentinel 2-MSI and PACE-OCI observations

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of phytoplankton biomass dynamics in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, by combining monthly water quality data with multispectral and hyperspectral satellite observations using a machine learning algorithm. A machine learning model based on Variational Autoencoder (VAE), globally applicable, was used to estimate phytoplankton biomass via chlorophyll- a (Chl- a ) from Sentinel 2-MSI and NASA's new hyperspectral mission, PACE-OCI, enabling the first direct comparison between the two sensors. The model performed well in this complex estuarine system, with higher accuracy from PACE-OCI (MAE: 1.48, RMSE: 10.40, slope: 0.87) than Sentinel 2-MSI (MAE: 1.57, RMSE: 11.08, slope: 0.83). This approach enabled continuous high-resolution monitoring of phytoplankton biomass across space and time. Comparative analysis of 2019, a wet year with Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) openings, and 2023, a dry year with extremely low riverine inputs, revealed distinct biomass dynamics. In 2019, BCS discharge initially suppressed Chl- a within turbid waters (<5 mg Chl- a m −3 ) but later acted as a nutrient and hydrodynamic driver, transporting nutrients toward the lake outlet and Mississippi coast, promoting high biomass (25–45 mg Chl- a m −3 ) near the entrance. In contrast, dry conditions in 2023 led to more frequent-than-expected high biomass (>35 mg Chl- a m −3 ), persisting in the lake center. Similar spatial patterns were observed again in 2024, revealed for the first time by PACE-OCI. This study demonstrates the value of satellite-derived observations for capturing transient phytoplankton biomass events and highlights the potential of PACE-OCI's hyperspectral capabilities to better distinguish phytoplankton communities and improve understanding of their responses to freshwater inflows and associated processes driving pulses into estuaries.

Louisiana

Paleomagnetic correlation of late Holocene earthquakes among estuaries in Washington and Oregon

Paleomagnetic directions of estuarine mud provide additional evidence that individual earthquakes, or rapid series of earthquakes, caused widespread coseismic land-level changes during the past 2000 years in western Washington and Oregon. Most of the paleomagnetic measurements were made on mud dating from the first decades after coseismic subsidence from plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Mud deposited soon after the A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake has similar remanent directions among all five sites ( k = 171) sampled along 80 km of Pacific coast between Grays Harbor and the mouth of the Columbia River. Likewise, internally consistent directions were obtained along this stretch of coast from mud deposited soon after a plate-boundary earthquake (or earthquake series) in A.D. 340–410 and soon after another such event in A.D. 680–720. Also analyzed were remanent magnetizations of mud deposited shortly before (or shortly after) land-level changes from seismicity in the North America plate beneath Puget Sound. A mean direction for sites on the Snohomish River delta, near Everett, from the time of an earthquake on the Seattle fault in A.D. 900–930 is statistically identical (95% confidence level) to a mean direction in mud that was uplifted in A.D. 800–1000 at potentially correlative sites near Tacoma and Olympia. The paleomagnetic direction from Everett for the upper-plate earthquake of A.D. 900–930 differs substantially from that for a plate-boundary earthquake in A.D. 810–1190. This difference implies that the upper-plate earthquake preceded the plate-boundary earthquake by a century or two on the basis of comparisons of their paleomagnetic poles with a previously reconstructed path of geomagnetic paleosecular variation in western North America.

Oregon, Washington

Statewide summary for Mississippi

The Mississippi coastline is 113 linear kilometers (70 miles) long and its estuaries cover approximately 594 km (369 mi; Figure 1) (Handley and others, 2007). It has a man-made sand beach 43.5 km (27 mi) long and 595.5 km (370 mi) of shoreline (Klein and others, b., 1998). The Mississippi Sound extends across the coastal waters of the State and encompasses 175,412 ha (433,443 acres). It is bordered by the Mississippi coast; Mobile Bay, Ala.; the Gulf Islands National Seashore barrier islands; and Lake Borgne, La. The watersheds and drainages feeding into Mississippi Sound, excluding tidal exchange from the Gulf of Mexico, include Lake Borgne, Pearl River, Jourdan River, Wolf River, Biloxi River, Tchoutacabouffa River, Pascagoula River, and Mobile Bay. The Pascagoula River is one of the last undammed rivers in the continental U.S. and the only undammed river flowing into the Gulf of Mexico. Freshwater inflow into Mississippi Sound, excluding that from Mobile Bay, averages 882.4 m 3 per second (30,806 ft 3 per second). The Mississippi coastal zone contains approximately one-third of the State’s 120 ecological communities (Klein and others, a., 1998). Regional land use includes silviculture, agriculture, and urban development, including several coastal casinos. Commercial shipping, shipbuilding, phosphate rock refinement, and electric power generation companies include some of the industrial complexes found along the Mississippi coast. The three counties found along the Mississippi coast, Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties, had a total population of 370,702 as of 2010, constituting 12.5 percent of the State’s population (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010). These counties cover over 160.9 km (100 mi) of coastline and are one of the fastest growing regions in the state (Klein and others, b., 1998). The casino industry, military installations, trade, and manufacturing provide most jobs in coastal Mississippi. Two major deep-water ports exist in coastal Mississippi. Recreation and tourism have a significant impact on Mississippi’s economy as well, annually attracting approximately 1.8 million visitors to the coast and generating approximately \$3.5 billion statewide, about one-third of which comes from coastal tourism. Ninety percent of the coastal tourism expenditures come from recreational boating and related industries. Marine recreational fishing generates more than \$50 million annually, with approximately 280,000 participants, more than a million recreational fishing expeditions, and over 40,000 resident saltwater sportfishing licenses sold each year. More than one-fourth of the anglers fishing in coastal Mississippi are tourists. Landings of shrimp, crabs, oysters, and finfish equal approximately 99.8 million kg (220 million lbs) of seafood annually. The entire seafood industry in coastal Mississippi, including processing of seafood caught in other Gulf States, generates approximately \$450 million per year.

Mississippi

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Tomales Point, California

In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California&rsquo;s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow (to about 200 m) subsurface geology. Tomales Bay, approximately 20-km long and 1- to 2-km wide, formed along a submerged portion of the San Andreas Fault, which forms a right-lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. The fault juxtaposes Cretaceous granitic rock to the southwest (exposed on Tomales Point) with the Jurassic and Cretaceous Franciscan Complex to the northeast (exposed on the northeast coast of the Tomales Bay), and has an estimated slip rate of about 17 to 30 mm/yr in this area. The destructive great 1906 California earthquake (M7.8, 4/18/1906) is thought to have nucleated on the San Andreas Fault about 60 km to the south, offshore of San Francisco, with the rupture extending northward through Tomales Bay and for an additional about 230 km to the south flank of Cape Mendocino. The northwest coast of Tomales Point is characterized by steep, high (as much as 100 m), barren, granitic cliffs and a rugged shoreline with a few small pocket beaches. There has been as much as 48 m of Tomales Point cliff retreat from 1929&ndash;30 to 2002. The granite is overlain by less resistant Tertiary sandstones at Kehoe Beach, the northern end of a continuous, wide, sandy beach backed by a large coastal dune field that extends for about 20 km south to Point Reyes Head. This long beach has a mixed history of accretion and retreat since the late 1800s. Tomales Point relief is asymmetrical so that most small coastal watersheds in the map area drain eastward from Inverness Ridge into Tomales Bay. Many of these steep drainages have small sandy beaches at their mouths. The east coast of Tomales Bay is characterized by more gentle, hummocky, hilly relief underlain by the landslide-prone Franciscan Complex. Keys Creek, the most prominent small watershed entering Tomales Bay from the east, has a small subaqueous delta at its mouth. Central Tomales Bay is relatively flat and underlain by fine sand and silt. The mouth of Tomales Bay is characterized by sand waves, dunes, and flats that have formed in response to strong tidal flow. Sand Point and Dillon Beach are located at the mouth of Tomales Bay and on the southeasternmost shores of Bodega Bay, respectively. The wide beach in this area is backed by an extensive (4.8 km 2 ) sand-dune complex. The enormous volume of sand on the beach and in the dune field is derived from southward littoral drift. This sediment is trapped by Tomales Bay and Tomales Point, which function as the south end of the Bodega Bay littoral cell. The continental shelf in California&rsquo;s State Waters in the Offshore of Tomales Point map area extends to water depths of about 70 m (mean slope of about 0.7&deg;) and is characterized by extensive, rugged, rocky seafloor. Granitic seafloor has a massive and fractured texture, whereas seafloor sedimentary rock outcrops commonly form distinctive &ldquo;ribs&rdquo; created by differential seafloor erosion of dipping beds of variable resistance. Direct sediment supply to this shelf is minimal because littoral drift is blocked to the north by Tomales Bay and Tomales Point, and to the south by the Point Reyes headland. Circulation over the continental shelf in the map area (and in the broader northern California region) is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. The current flow generally is southeastward during the spring and summer; however, during the fall and winter, the otherwise persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent, causing the California Current to move farther offshore and the Davidson Current, a weaker, northward-flowing countercurrent, to become active. As a result, net flow over the continental shelf can be more southerly during the spring and summer and more northerly during the fall and winter. Throughout the year, this part of the central California coast is exposed to four wave climate regimes&mdash;the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months (typically November through March), with wave heights at offshore buoys ranging from 2 to 10 m and wave periods ranging from 10 to 25 s. During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore Central America. Characteristically, these swells have smaller wave heights (0.3 to 3 m) and similarly long periods (range 10 to 25 s). Northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year, while local wind waves are most common from October to April. These two wind-wave regimes typically have wave heights of 1 to 4 m and short periods (3 to 10 s). Potential marine benthic habitats in the Offshore of Tomales Point map area range from unconsolidated continental-shelf sediment, to rocky continental-shelf substrate, to unconsolidated estuary sediments. Rocky-shelf outcrops and rubble are considered to be promising potential habitats for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species. Dynamic bedforms, such as the sand waves at the mouth of Tomales Bay, are considered potential foraging habitat for juvenile lingcod and possibly migratory fishes, as well as for forage fish such as Pacific sand lance.

California

Chapter 6: Climate change, wildlife, and wildlife habitats in the Oregon Coast Range

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on wildlife species within the Oregon Coast Adaptation Partnership (OCAP) assessment area, although the direction and magnitude of effects are likely to vary across species. Increased mean and extreme temperatures, especially during summer, may cause shifts in plant and animal species ranges, reduce habitat for some temperature-sensitive wildlife, alter plant phenology and the timing of available food resources, and affect species interactions (e.g., predation, competition). Altered timing of precipitation, summer drought, loss of fog, increased flooding events, earlier snowmelt, and rising sea level may reduce plant productivity, increase tree mortality, shift plant species composition, and lead to reduced wildlife habitat and habitat quality for some forests, riparian areas, wetlands, meadows, estuaries, and beaches. In addition, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire and insect outbreaks may reduce the extent of late-successional forest, reduce habitat connectivity, and increase the spread of invasive species. The biggest change expected for the assessment area is an increase in area where climatic conditions favor coastal mixed forest and a large reduction in area favoring montane conifer forest. Although actual changes in forest types may not necessarily occur by the end of the 21st century, climate change may add physiological and behavioral stress to wildlife. Some wildlife species will be able to persist in place and adapt to new conditions; some may be able to migrate to find suitable habitat; and some may be greatly reduced or extirpated from the assessment area or even go extinct. Shifts in major tree and shrub species will play a major role in food, den, and cover availability for wildlife. Rising sea level will reduce low-elevation habitats along the coast. An increase in the frequency of high-severity weather events will increase frequency and magnitude of flooding, including debris flow events. Coupled with increased temperatures during summer, this may reduce or fragment important ecosystems for aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Evaluation of the vulnerabilities of nine wildlife species based on literature reviews suggests that each species has life-history attributes that can lead to resilience or vulnerability to climate change effects. Depending on long-term objectives, several broad adaptation strategies focus on protecting refugia, establishing redundant wildlife strongholds with large-scale connectivity, and promoting structural and biological complexity.

Oregon

The dynamics of coastal models

Coastal basins are defined as estuaries, lagoons, and embayments. This book deals with the science of coastal basins using simple models, many of which are presented in either analytical form or Microsoft Excel or MATLAB. The book introduces simple hydrodynamics and its applications, from the use of simple box and one-dimensional models to flow over coral reefs. The book also emphasizes models as a scientific tool in our understanding of coasts, and introduces the value of the most modern flexible mesh combined wave-current models. Examples from shallow basins around the world illustrate the wonders of the scientific method and the power of simple dynamics. This book is ideal for use as an advanced textbook for graduate students and as an introduction to the topic for researchers, especially those from other fields of science needing a basic understanding of the basic ideas of the dynamics of coastal basins.

Book

Using optical proxies for biogeochemical properties to study land coverage and terrestrial inputs of organic carbon into coastal waters from the Penobscot Watershed to the Gulf of Maine

Coastal waters are physically, biogeochemically, and therefore optically complex as a result of the commingling of waters arising from terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Separating the influences of these three ecosystems on the optical properties of the resulting mixture is challenging, particularly given the variability within each. The longterm goals of this project are twofold: (1) to investigate the feasibility of identifying landuse changes using inwater optical observations, (2) to quantify the input of terrestrial organic carbon into the coastal marine environment. Our approach is to study the Penobscot River Watershed in Maine, from its many tributaries and subwatersheds into the main branch of the Penobscot River, Penobscot Bay and ultimately into the coastal waters of the Eastern Maine Coastal Current. The first step towards this goal is to define optical signatures associated with specific watershed land coverages measured at the source (optical proxies). The next step is to track those proxies from their respective sources to the coast, characterizing the dilution and transformative processes. Using analyses of discrete samples collected monthly from the subwatersheds, we have quantified optical proxies for both dissolved and particulate organic carbon, particulate carbon to nitrogen ratios and fluorophores unique to certain land coverages (e.g. wetlands, residence ponds, lumber mills, agriculture). We apply these proxies to in situ optical observations retrieved from sensors moored within the lower river and upper estuary to quantify the temporal patterns in the biogeochemical properties. To date we have approximately 2 years of observations, including the wettest year on record for the last century in this region. The proxies associated with the dissolved fraction are the most robust and provide signatures for both land coverage and for organic carbon concentration. Those associated with particles are robust proxies for carbon but are less informative about land coverage.

Maine

Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines

Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.

Nature--Scientific Reports

Inundation, sedimentation, and subsidence creates goose habitat along the Arctic coast of Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska is characterized by thermokarst lakes and drained lake basins, and the rate of coastal erosion has increased during the last half-century. Portions of the coast are <1 m above sea level for kilometers inland, and are underlain by ice-rich permafrost. Increased storm surges or terrestrial subsidence would therefore expand the area subject to marine inundation. Since 1976, the distribution of molting Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) on the Arctic Coastal Plain has shifted from inland freshwater lakes to coastal marshes, such as those occupying the Smith River and Garry Creek estuaries. We hypothesized that the movement of geese from inland lakes was caused by an expansion of high quality goose forage in coastal areas. We examined the recent history of vegetation and geomorphological changes in coastal goose habitat by combining analysis of time series imagery between 1948 and 2010 with soil stratigraphy dated using bomb-curve radiocarbon. Time series of vertical imagery and in situ verification showed permafrost thaw and subsidence of polygonal tundra. Soil stratigraphy and dating within coastal estuaries showed that non-saline vegetation communities were buried by multiple sedimentation episodes between 1948 and 1995, accompanying a shift toward salt-tolerant vegetation. This sedimentation allowed high quality goose forage plants to expand, thus facilitating the shift in goose distribution. Declining sea ice and the increasing rate of terrestrial inundation, sedimentation, and subsidence in coastal estuaries of Alaska may portend a 'tipping point' whereby inland areas would be transformed into salt marshes.

Alaska

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington

Hydrologic overlay maps of the Cape Canaveral Quadrangle, Florida

Brevard County is an area of some 1,300 square miles located on the east coast of central Florida. The Cape Canaveral quadrangle, in central Brevard, includes part of the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, John F. Kennedy Space Center (NASA), and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The eastern part of the quadrangle is occupied by the Atlantic Ocean and the western part by estuarine waters of the Banana River. Topography is characterized by numerous elongate sand dumes, with altitudes up to 10 feet or greater, which roughly parallel the estuary and ocean.

Florida

Annual survival, site fidelity, and longevity in the eastern coastal population of the Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) based on a 20-year mark-recapture/resighting study

A long-term study of annual survival, longevity, and site fidelity in the eastern coastal population of the Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) during the breeding season was conducted from 1999 through 2018 in the outer coastal plain of the southeastern Atlantic coast of the United States. Painted Buntings were uniquely color-banded from 1999 through 2003 at 40 study sites that were paired at 20 locations from southeastern North Carolina south to northeastern Florida. Survival analysis used capture histories through 2005 for 994 birds banded as hatch-year and 2420 birds banded as post-hatch-year (adults). Annual estimates of apparent survival (1999-2004) averaged 0.71 and 0.66 for adult males and females, respectively, and 0.33 for hatch-year birds. We did not find evidence that survival differed in relation to latitude or extent of human development near study sites, although estimates for adult females were higher for birds banded on sheltered islands compared to the mainland. Expected time in the population, based on estimated survival, was 3.9 and 3.4 years for adult males and females, respectively. The oldest observed birds were a 14-year old male observed in June 2016 at Harris Neck NWR, Georgia, the site at which he had been banded in July 2003 as a second-year bird, and a 13-year old male seen at Ft. George Island, Florida in June 2016, 2 km across a tidal estuary from the site where the bird was banded in August 2003 as hatch-year. The males were sighted at these two sites in 9 and 11 different years, respectively. Overall, 78% (males) and 81% (females) of re-sightings and re-captures of birds banded as adults occurred at the same study site where individuals were banded, compared to 59% (males) and 60% (females) of birds banded as hatch-year. Known mortalities of banded buntings included nine birds trapped for the caged-bird trade. This study shows the potential for high survival and longevity in the eastern coastal population of the Painted Bunting, and given evidence of high site fidelity in the breeding range, the vulnerability of the population to human development along the southeastern U.S. coast as well as to illegal trapping.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology