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Results for “Ecology Indicators”

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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Characterizing benthic macroinvertebrate and algal biological condition gradient models for California wadeable Streams, USA

The Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is a conceptual model that describes changes in aquatic communities under increasing levels of anthropogenic stress. The BCG helps decision-makers connect narrative water quality goals (e.g., maintenance of natural structure and function) to quantitative measures of ecological condition by linking index thresholds based on statistical distributions (e.g., percentiles of reference distributions) to expert descriptions of changes in biological condition along disturbance gradients. As a result, the BCG may be more meaningful to managers and the public than indices alone. To develop a BCG model, biological response to stress is divided into 6 levels of condition, represented as changes in biological structure (abundance and diversity of pollution sensitive versus tolerant taxa) and function. We developed benthic macroinvertebrate (BMI) and algal BCG models for California perennial wadeable streams to support interpretation of percentiles of reference-based thresholds for bioassessment indices (i.e., the California Stream Condition Index [CSCI] for BMI and the Algal Stream Condition Index [ASCI] for diatoms and soft-bodied algae). Two panels (one of BMI ecologists and the other of algal ecologists) each calibrated a general BCG model to California wadeable streams by first assigning taxa to specific tolerance and sensitivity attributes, and then independently assigning test samples (264 BMI and 248 algae samples) to BCG Levels 1–6. Consensus on the assignments was developed within each assemblage panel using a modified Delphi method. Panels then developed detailed narratives of changes in BMI and algal taxa that correspond to the 6 BCG levels. Consensus among experts was high, with 81% and 82% expert agreement within 0.5 units of assigned BCG level for BMIs and algae, respectively. According to both BCG models, the 10th percentiles index scores at reference sites corresponded to a BCG Level 3, suggesting that this type of threshold would protect against moderate changes in structure and function while allowing loss of some sensitive taxa. The BCG provides a framework to interpret changes in aquatic biological condition along a gradient of stress. The resulting relationship between index scores and BCG levels and narratives can help decision-makers select thresholds and communicate how these values protect aquatic life use goals.

California↗
USGS2011

Spatial and seasonal variability of dissolved methylmercury in two stream basins in the Eastern United States

We assessed methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations across multiple ecological scales in the Edisto (South Carolina) and Upper Hudson (New York) River basins. Out-of-channel wetland/floodplain environments were primary sources of filtered MeHg (F-MeHg) to the stream habitat in both systems. Shallow, open-water areas in both basins exhibited low F-MeHg concentrations and decreasing F-MeHg mass flux. Downstream increases in out-of-channel wetlands/floodplains and the absence of impoundments result in high MeHg throughout the Edisto. Despite substantial wetlands coverage and elevated F-MeHg concentrations at the headwater margins, numerous impoundments on primary stream channels favor spatial variability and lower F-MeHg concentrations in the Upper Hudson. The results indicated that, even in geographically, climatically, and ecologically diverse streams, production in wetland/floodplain areas, hydrologic transport to the stream aquatic environment, and conservative/nonconservative attenuation processes in open water areas are fundamental controls on dissolved MeHg concentrations and, by extension, MeHg availability for potential biotic uptake.

New York, South Carolina↗
USGS2001

Developing landscape-indicator models for pesticides and nutrients in streams of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain

Collaborative research between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Landscape Ecology Branch, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began in 1999 to relate land use, geology, and other geographic variables to water quality and aquatic ecology in small streams of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Results of the study will include landscape-indicator models (see inset) for stream ecological condition and for concentrations of pesticides and nutrients in ground water discharging to small streams. A base network of 174 small (typically first-order) streams was designed across a gradient of hydrogeologic and land-use settings. Additional sites were selected to represent natural watershed conditions and to relate results from the base network to downstream conditions and seasonal hydrologic variability. Benthic-community and habitat assessments were conducted at each stream; water samples from all streams were analyzed for selected pesticides, pesticide metabolites, nutrients, and major ions.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2017

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2022

Forecasting species distributions: Correlation does not equal causation

Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019) and future (2080s) distributions of ecologically important mammalian carnivores and competitors along range limits in the northeastern US under two global climate models (GCMs) and a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) of projected snow and forest biomass change. Results Our hypothesis that causal models of climate-mediated competition would result in different distribution predictions than correlational models, both in the current and future periods, was well-supported by our results; however, these patterns were prominent only for species pairs that exhibited strong interactions. The causal model predicted the current distribution of Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) more accurately, likely because it incorporated the influence of competitive interactions mediated by snow with the closely related bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). Both modeling frameworks predicted an overall decline in lynx occurrence in the central high-elevation regions and increased occurrence in the northeastern region in the 2080s due to changes in land use that provided optimal habitat. However, these losses and gains were less substantial in the causal model due to the inclusion of an indirect buffering effect of snow on lynx. Main conclusions Our comparative analysis indicates that a causal framework, steeped in ecological theory, can be used to generate spatially explicit predictions of species distributions. This approach can be used to disentangle correlated predictors that have previously hampered understanding of range limits and species' response to climate change.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS2010

Faunal assemblages and multi-scale habitat patterns in headwater tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River - an unregulated river embedded within a multiple-use landscape

Headwaters can represent 80% of stream kilometers in a watershed, and they also have unique physical and biological properties that have only recently been recognized for their importance in sustaining healthy functioning stream networks and their ecological services. We sampled 60 headwater tributaries in the South Fork Trinity River, a 2,430 km2, mostly forested, multiple-use watershed in northwestern California. Our objectives were: (1) to differentiate unique headwater types using 69 abiotic and vegetation variables measured at three spatial scales, and then to reduce these to informative subsets; (2) determine if distinct biota occupied the different tributary types; (3) determine the environmental attributes associated with the presence and abundance of these biotic assemblages; and (4) using niche modeling, determine key attribute thresholds to illustrate how these biota could be employed as metrics of system integrity and ecological services. Several taxa were sufficiently abundant and widespread to use as bio-indicators: the presence and abundance of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) species richness, and signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) represented different trophic positions, value as commercial resources (steelhead), sensitivity to environmental stress (amphibians), and indicators of biodiversity (herpetofauna species richness). Herpetofauna species richness did not differ, but abundances of steelhead trout, signal crayfish, and amphibian richness all differed significantly among tributary types. Niche models indicated that distribution and abundance patterns in both riparian and aquatic environments were associated with physical and structural attributes at multiple spatial scales, both within and around reaches. The bio-indicators responded to unique sets of attributes, reflecting the high environmental heterogeneity in headwater tributaries across this large watershed. These niche attributes represented a wide range of headwater environments, indicating responses to a number of natural and anthropogenic conditions, and demonstrated the value of using a suite of bio-indicators to elucidate watershed conditions, and to examine numerous disturbances that may influence ecological integrity.

Animal Biodiversity and Conservation↗
USGS2020

Using remote sensing products to predict recovery of vegetation across space and time following energy development

Using localized studies to understand how ecosystems recover can create uncertainty in recovery predictions across landscapes. Large archives of remote sensing data offer opportunities for quantifying the spatial and temporal factors influencing recovery at broad scales and predicting recovery. For example, energy production is a widespread and expanding land use among many semi-arid ecosystems of the Western United States dominated by sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), a keystone species providing a variety of ecological services. With remotely-sensed (Landsat) estimates of vegetation cover collected every 2–5 years from southwestern Wyoming, USA, over nearly three decades (1985–2015), we modeled changes in sagebrush cover on 375 former oil and gas well pads in response to weather and site-level conditions. We then used modeled relationships to predict recovery time across the landscape as an indicator of resilience for vegetation after well pad disturbances, where faster recovery indicates a greater capacity to recover when similarly disturbed. We found the rate of change in sagebrush cover generally increased with moisture and temperature, particularly at higher elevations. Rate of change in sagebrush cover also increased and decreased with greater percent sand and larger well pads, respectively. We predicted 21% of the landscape would recover to pre-disturbance conditions within 60 years, whereas other areas may require >100 years for recovery. These predictions and maps could inform future restoration efforts as they reflect resilience. This approach also is applicable to other disturbance types (e.g., fires and vegetation removal treatments) across landscapes, which can further improve conservation efforts by characterizing past conditions and monitoring trends in subsequent years.

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Available data support protection of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher under the Endangered Species Act

Zink (2015) argued there was no evidence for genetic, morphological, or ecological differentiation between the federally endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) and other Willow Flycatcher subspecies. Using the same data, we show there is a step-cline in both the frequency of a mtDNA haplotype and in plumage variation roughly concordant with the currently recognized boundary between E. t. extimus and E. t adastus, the subspecies with which it shares the longest common boundary. The geographical pattern of plumage variation is also concordant with previous song analyses differentiating those 2 subspecies and identified birds in one low-latitude, high-elevation site in Arizona as the northern subspecies. We also demonstrate that the ecological niche modeling approach used by Zink yields the same result whether applied to the 2 flycatcher subspecies or to 2 unrelated species, E. t. extimus and Yellow Warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). As a result, any interpretation of those results as evidence for lack of ecological niche differentiation among Willow Flycatcher subspecies would also indicate no differentiation among recognized species and would therefore be an inappropriate standard for delineating subspecies. We agree that many analytical techniques now available to examine genetic, morphological, and ecological differentiation would improve our understanding of the distinctness (or lack thereof) of Willow Flycatcher subspecies, but we argue that currently available evidence supports protection of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher under the Endangered Species Act.

The Condor↗
USGS2016

Toward an integrated understanding of perceived biodiversity values and environmental conditions in a national park

In spatial planning and management of protected areas, increased priority is being given to research that integrates social and ecological data. However, public viewpoints of the benefits provided by ecosystems are not easily quantified and often implicitly folded into natural resource management decisions. Drawing on a spatially explicit participatory mapping exercise and a Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) analysis tool, the present study empirically examined and integrated social values for ecosystem services and environmental conditions within Channel Islands National Park, California. Specifically, a social value indicator of perceived biodiversity was examined using on-site survey data collected from a sample of people who visited the park. This information was modeled alongside eight environmental conditions including faunal species richness for six taxa, vegetation density, categories of marine and terrestrial land cover, and distance to features relevant for decision-makers. Results showed that biodiversity value points assigned to places by the pooled sample of respondents were widely and unevenly mapped, which reflected the belief that biodiversity was embodied to varying degrees by multiple locations in the park. Models generated for two survey subgroups defined by their self-reported knowledge of the Channels Islands revealed distinct spatial patterns of these perceived values. Specifically, respondents with high knowledge valued large spaces that were publicly inaccessible and unlikely to contain on-ground biodiversity, whereas respondents with low knowledge valued places that were experienced first-hand. Accessibility and infrastructure were also important considerations for anticipating how and where people valued the protected land and seascapes of Channel Islands National Park.

California↗
USGS2015

Detection probabilities of electrofishing, hoop nets, and benthic trawls for fishes in two western North American rivers

Research comparing different sampling techniques helps improve the efficiency and efficacy of sampling efforts. We compared the effectiveness of three sampling techniques (small-mesh hoop nets, benthic trawls, boat-mounted electrofishing) for 30 species in the Green (WY, USA) and Kootenai (ID, USA) rivers by estimating conditional detection probabilities (probability of detecting a species given its presence at a site). Electrofishing had the highest detection probabilities (generally greater than 0.60) for most species (88%), but hoop nets also had high detectability for several taxa (e.g., adult burbot Lota lota , juvenile northern pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis ). Benthic trawls had low detection probabilities (<0.05) for most taxa (84%). Gear-specific effects were present for most species indicating large differences in gear effectiveness among techniques. In addition to gear effects, habitat characteristics also influenced detectability of fishes. Most species-specific habitat relationships were idiosyncratic and reflected the ecology of the species. Overall findings of our study indicate that boat-mounted electrofishing and hoop nets are the most effective techniques for sampling fish assemblages in large, coldwater rivers.

Idaho, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Combining resilience and resistance with threat-based approaches for prioritizing management actions in sagebrush ecosystems

The sagebrush biome is a dryland region in the western United States experiencing rapid transformations to novel ecological states. Threat-based approaches for managing anthropogenic and ecosystem threats have recently become prominent, but successfully mitigating threats depends on the ecological resilience of ecosystems. We used a spatially explicit approach for prioritizing management actions that combined a threat-based model with models of resilience to disturbance and resistance to annual grass invasion. The threat-based model assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to identify core sagebrush, growth opportunity, and other rangeland areas. The resilience and resistance model identified ecologically relevant climate and soil water availability indicators from process-based ecohydrological models. The SEI areas and resilience and resistance indicators were consistent—the resilience and resistance indicators showed generally positive relationships with the SEI areas. They also were complementary—SEI areas provided information on intact sagebrush areas and threats, while resilience and resistance provided information on responses to disturbances and management actions. The SEI index and resilience and resistance indicators provide the basis for prioritizing conservation and restoration actions and determining appropriate strategies. The difficulty and time required to conserve or restore SEI areas increase as threats increases and resilience and resistance decrease.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2007

Overview of issues in subsurface and landfill microbiology

To date, the majority of evidence indicates that most subsurface environments possess climax ecological communities that are well adapted to the environment in which they live. Like their counterparts on the surface, subsurface ecosystems are characterized by a high degree of microbiological diversity, they possess trophic structure, and they exhibit material cycling and energy transfer. Members of such ecosystems typically possess structural, physiological, or reproductive adaptations that allow them to disperse and survive in such habitats. Current studies argue that microbial activities influence the geochemical processes in both landfills and subsurface environments and that the altered geochemistry, in turn, influences the selection of microorganisms proliferating in the habitat. However, while microbial activity may often be limited by the availability of electron donors in uncontaminated aquifer systems, this is rarely the case with landfills. Sections in this chapter provide investigators with a greater understanding of the experimental approaches needed to study the microbiology of the terrestrial subsurface and an appreciation of interpretational limits imposed by the existing methodologies. The hope is that further study of subsurface microorganisms will provide insights into the process of microbial evolution and possibly into the origins of life itself.

Book chapter↗
USGS2007

The roles of physical habitat in reproduction and survival of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River, progress 2005–06: Chapter D in Factors affecting the reproduction, recruitment, habitat, and population dynamics of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in the Missouri River

This report documents progress on three related components of habitat assessments in the Lower Missouri River during 2005–06. The habitat-use component links this research directly to sturgeon ecology research described in other chapters. The habitat availability and habitat dynamics assessments provide physical context for the ecological research. Results from 2005 to 2006 indicate that the methods developed to assess habitat use, quality, quantity, and dynamics are appropriate and sufficiently accurate to address critical questions about sturgeon habitat on the Lower Missouri River. Preliminary analysis of habitats occupied by adult female shovelnose sturgeon indicates that migrating sturgeon do not select for depth but seem to select for lower than reach-averaged velocities and higher than reach-averaged velocity gradients. Data collected to compile, calibrate, and validate multidimensional hydraulic models in probable spawning reaches appear to be sufficient to support the modeling objectives. Monitoring of selected channel cross sections and long profiles multiple times during the year showed little change at the upstreammost reach over the range of flows measured during 2006, likely because of channel stability associated with an armored bed. Geomorphic changes documented at monitoring cross sections increased with distance downstream. Hydroacoustic substrate-class parameters documented systematic changes with discharge and with hydraulic environment across the channel. Similarly, bed velocity varied predictably with discharge and hydraulic environment, indicating its potential as an indicator of bedload sediment transport. Longitudinal profiles showed substantial downstream movement of dunes over the monitored discharges, as well as substantial within-year variability in dune size. Observations of geomorphic change during the moderate flow range of 2006 support the hypothesis that the magnitude of flow modifications under consideration on the Lower Missouri River will be sufficient to transport sediment and potentially modify spawning habitats.

Lower Missouri River↗
USGS1975

Relation of water level and fish availability to wood stork reproduction in the southern Everglades, Florida

The wood stork is a species of colonial wading bird in the Everglades that is most sensitive to changes in the availability of food. Previous studies have shown that the initiation and success of wood stork nesting depends on high densities of fish concentrated in ponds and other catchment basins during the dry season. The extreme dependence of the wood stork on the cyclic hydrologic regime of the southern Florida wetlands makes it an indicator of the well-being and ecological stability of the Everglades. The wood stork has declined in numbers over the last 25 years. One reason for the decline in wood stork population was the change in the hydrologic regimen of the Everglades which affected the feeding habitat and the food production. The fish on which the wood stork feeds increase in density during the dry season as water levels fall. In the Everglades marsh, densities were highest in front of the drying edge of surface water at a depth of about 0.3 m. Dry-season densities were greatest when a drought occurred the previous year. Historically wood stork nesting success was associated with high summer water levels, high rates of surface-water discharge and high rates of drying. Before the closure of the south side of Conservation Area 3 in 1962, years of successful and unsuccessful nesting were characterized by different patterns of drying. These patterns changed after 1962 and generally the predictability of successful nesting breaks down thereafter. Only two nesting years after 1962 were successful and in only one of these was the drying rate similar to years of successful nesting before 1962. Two other potentially successful years failed after 1962. This suggests that further changes in the hydrobiological relations occurred within the Everglades after 1962. Lack of successful nesting after 1962 can be attributed in large part to late colony formation and the interruption of nesting by winter rainfall. In this period (1962-72), colonies formed earlier in years of high early drying rates than in years of low early drying rates. Delay of colony formation is ultimately the result of inability to attain a suitable nutritional state since food supply is the primary factor in the initiation of nesting. Many of the complex food associations of the wood stork remain to be explained.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Assessment of long-term trends in streamflow statistics within and near the Mobile Bay and Perdido Bay watersheds, United States, 1950–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council, assessed monotonic trends for a variety of streamflow statistics for 69 long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages within either the Mobile Bay or Perdido Bay watersheds that were active through at least at the end of calendar year 2019. Long-term data were defined for this investigation as having at least 50 years of cumulative record within the period since January 1, 1950, with a requirement for a complete record of streamflow during the 2010s (2010–19). The 69 streamgages have at least 54 years and as many as 73 years of daily mean streamflow data; the median period of record is 72 years; and 15 of the streamgages are identified as “major nodes” on the basis of the criteria described. The occurrence of statistically monotonic significant trends for the 69 streamgages at the 0.05 significance level is spatially shown for six statistics. For the major node streamgages, the study depicts (1) time-series graphics of annual mean, annual harmonic mean, decadal 10th, 50th, and 90th-percentile streamflows, and (2) a variation on Quantile-Kendall plots of Kendall’s tau and streamflow nonexceedance probabilities for each of the 365 days of a year. Trend assessment synthesis shows that, except for a few streamgages with relatively greater counts of statistically significant trends than others, the majority (about 93 percent) of individual trend tests indicate no trend in the streamflow and ecological metrics considered.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2022

Using a vegetation index to assess wetland condition in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetlands deliver a suite of ecosystem services to society. Anthropogenic activities, such as wetland drainage, have resulted in considerable wetland loss and degradation, diminishing the intrinsic value of wetland ecosystems worldwide. Protecting remaining wetlands and restoring degraded wetlands are common management practices to preserve and reclaim wetland benefits to society. Accordingly, methods for monitoring and assessing wetlands are required to evaluate their ecologic condition and outcomes of restoration activities. We used an established methodology for conducting vegetation-based assessments and describe a case study consisting of a wetland condition assessment in the Prairie Pothole Region of the North American Great Plains. We provide an overview of an existing method for selecting wetlands to sample across broad geographic distributions using a spatially balanced statistical design. We also describe site assessment protocols, including vegetation survey methods, and how field data were applied to a vegetation index that categorized wetlands according to ecologic condition. Results of the case study indicated that vegetation communities in nearly 50% of the surveyed wetlands were in very poor or poor condition, while only about 25% were considered good or very good . Approximately 70% of wetlands in native grasslands were categorized as good or very good compared to only 12% of those in reseeded grasslands (formerly cropland). In terms of informing restoration and management activities, results indicated that improved restoration practices could include a greater focus on establishing natural vegetation communities, and both restored and native prairie wetlands would benefit from enhanced management of invasive species.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2006

Relationships among condition indices, feeding and growth of walleye in Lake Erie

Condition indices are often used as surrogates of fish health, growth, and feeding and to compare ecological well-being among fish populations. In an effort to identify easily measured indices, growth and food consumption were compared with gonadal-somatic index, liver-somatic index (LSI), fat-somatic index and relative weight (Wr) for ages 1-3 walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), in Lake Erie from 1986 to 1988. The LSI and Wr were significantly correlated with growth rate or food consumption, but correlations were too small to be considered biologically meaningful. Furthermore, no consistent relationships between condition indices and growth or consumption were found among combinations of fish age and season. None of the indices are considered reliable surrogates for more laborious estimates of growth and food consumption for Lake Erie walleye. Significant relationships between Wr and relative abundance of key prey species warrant further investigation. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗
USGS1995

Isohaline position as a habitat indicator for estuarine populations

Populations of native and introduced aquatic organisms in the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary ("Bay/Delta") have undergone significant declines over the past two decades. Decreased river inflow due to drought and increased freshwater diversion have contributed to the decline of at least some populations. Effective management of the estuary's biological resources requires a sensitive indicator of the response to freshwater inflow that has ecological significance, can be measured accurately and easily, and could be used as a "policy" variable to set standards for managing freshwater inflow. Positioning of the 2% (grams of salt per kilogram of seawater) bottom salinity value along the axis of the estuary was examined for this purpose. The 2% bottom salinity position (denoted by X 2 ) has simple and significant statistical relationships with annual measures of many estuarine resources, including the supply of phytoplankton and phytoplankton-derived detritus from local production and river loading; benthic macroinvertebrates (molluscs); mysids and shrimp; larval fish survival; and the abundance of planktivorous, piscivorous, and bottom-foraging fish. The actual mechanisms are understood for only a few of these populations. X 2 also satisfies other recognized requirements for a habitat indicator and probably can be measured with greater accuracy and precision than alternative habitat indicators such as net freshwater inflow into the estuary. The 2% value may not have special ecological significance for other estuaries (in the Bay/Delta, it marks the locations of an estuarine turbidity maximum and peaks in the abundance of several estuarine organisms), but the concept of using near-bottom isohaline position as a habitat indicator should be widely applicable. Although X 2 is a sensitive index of the estuarine community's response to net freshwater inflow, other hydraulic features of the estuary also determine population abundances and resource levels. In particular, diversion of water for export from or consumption within the estuary can have a direct effect on population abundance independent of its effect on X 2 . The need to consider diversion, in addition to X 2 , for managing certain estuarine resources is illustrated using striped bass survival as an example. The striped bass survival data were also used to illustrate a related important point: incorporating additional explanatory variables may decrease the prediction error for a population or process, but it can increase the uncertainty in parameter estimates and management strategies based on these estimates. Even in cases where the uncertainty is currently too large to guide management decisions, an uncertainty analysis can identify the most practical direction for future data acquisition.

California↗