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At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Tools for managing hydrologic alteration on a regional scale II: Setting targets to protect stream health

Widespread hydrologic alteration creates a need for tools to assess ecological impacts to streams that can be applied across large geographic scales. A regional framework for biologically based flow management can help catchment managers prioritise streams for protection, evaluate impacts of disturbance or interventions and provide a starting point for causal assessment in degraded streams. However, lack of flow data limit the ability to assess hydrologic conditions across a region. Hydrologic models can address this problem. Regionally calibrated hydrologic models were used to estimate current and reference flows at 572 bioassessment sites in southern and central coastal California. Flow alteration was characterised as the difference in 39 flow metrics calculated from simulations of present‐day and reference flow time‐series, calculated under up to four precipitation conditions. Biological condition was assessed with the California Stream Condition Index (CSCI) and its components. Logistic regressions were used to predict the likelihood of high scores (i.e. ≥10th percentile of the CSCI reference calibration data). Statistically significant relationships between increasing severity of hydrologic alteration and decreasing biological condition were used to set thresholds that reflected tolerance for risk of a stakeholder advisory group. An index of hydrologic alteration was created by selecting flow metrics based on their importance for predicting biological response variables in boosted regression tree models. Metrics were selected in the order of decreasing importance, and no more than two metrics per metric class were selected (i.e. duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and variability). Seven metrics were selected: HighDur (duration of high‐flow events), HighNum (# of high‐flow events), NoDisturb (duration between high‐ or low‐flow events), MaxMonthQ (maximum monthly discharge), Q99 (99th percentile of daily streamflow), QmaxIDR (interdecile range of annual maxima) and RBI (Richards–Baker Index). Applying the index to data from a probabilistic survey, 34% of stream‐miles in southern California were estimated to be hydrologically altered. One of four management priorities were assigned to each site based on biological condition and hydrologic status: protection (healthy and unaltered, 52% of stream‐miles), monitoring (healthy but altered 4%), evaluation of flow management (unhealthy and altered, 30%) and evaluation of other management (unhealthy but unaltered, 14%). Regionally derived biologically based targets for flow alteration allow catchment managers to prioritise activities and conduct screenings for causal assessments across large spatial scales. Furthermore, regional tools pave the way for incorporation of hydrologic management in policies and catchment planning designed to support biological integrity in streams. Development of regional tools should be a priority where hydrologic alteration is pervasive or expected to increase in response to climate change or urbanisation.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2024

Utility of an instantaneous salt dilution method for measuring streamflow in headwater streams

Streamflow records are biased toward large streams and rivers, yet small headwater streams are often the focus of ecological research in response to climate change. Conventional flow measurement instruments such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) do not perform well during low-flow conditions in small streams, truncating the development of rating curves during critical baseflow conditions dominated by groundwater inflow. We revisited an instantaneous solute tracer injection method as an alternative to ADVs based on paired measurements to compare their precision, efficiency, and feasibility within headwater streams across a range of flow conditions. We show that the precision of discharge measurements using salt dilution by slug injection and ADV methods were comparable overall, but salt dilution was more precise during the lowest flows and required less time to implement. Often, headwater streams were at or below the depth threshold where ADV measurements could even be attempted and transects were complicated by coarse bed material and cobbles. We discuss the methodological benefits and limitations of salt dilution by slug injection and conclude that the method could facilitate a proliferation of streamflow observation across headwater stream networks that are highly undersampled compared to larger streams.

Virginia↗
USGS2009

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Physiological ecology of desert biocrust moss following 10 years exposure to elevated CO2: Evidence for enhanced photosynthetic thermotolerance

In arid regions, biomes particularly responsive to climate change, mosses play an important biogeochemical role as key components of biocrusts. Using the biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis collected from the Nevada Desert Free Air CO 2 Enrichment Facility, we examined the physiological effects of 10 years of exposure to elevated CO 2 , and the effect of high temperature events on the photosynthetic performance of moss grown in CO 2 -enriched air. Moss exposed to elevated CO 2 exhibited a 46% decrease in chlorophyll, a 20% increase in carbon and no difference in either nitrogen content or photosynthetic performance. However, when subjected to high temperatures (35–40°C), mosses from the elevated CO2 environment showed higher photosynthetic performance and photosystem II (PSII) efficiency compared to those grown in ambient conditions, potentially reflective of a shift in nitrogen allocation to components that offer a higher resistance of PSII to heat stress. This result suggests that mosses may respond to climate change in markedly different ways than vascular plants, and observed CO 2 -induced photosynthetic thermotolerance in S. caninervis will likely have consequences for future desert biogeochemistry.

Physiologia Plantarum↗
USGS2012

Aquatic insect assemblages associated with subalpine stream segment types in relict glaciated headwaters

1. Aquatic habitats and biotic assemblages in subalpine headwaters are sensitive to climate and human impacts. Understanding biotic responses to such perturbations and the contribution of high-elevation headwaters to riverine biodiversity requires the assessment of assemblage composition among habitat types. We compared aquatic insect assemblages among headwater stream segment types in relict glaciated subalpine basins in Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington, USA. 2. Aquatic insects were collected during summer and autumn in three headwater basins. In each basin, three different stream segment types were sampled: colluvial groundwater sources, alluvial lake inlets, and cascade-bedrock lake outlets. Ward's hierarchical cluster analysis revealed high β diversity in aquatic insect assemblages, and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that spatial and temporal patterns in assemblage composition differed among headwater stream segment types. Aquatic insect assemblages showed more fidelity to stream segment types than to individual basins, and the principal environmental variables associated with assemblage structure were temperature and substrate. 3. Indicator species analyses identified specific aquatic insects associated with each stream segment type. Several rare and potentially endemic aquatic insect taxa were present, including the recently described species, Lednia borealis (Baumann and Kondratieff). 4. Our results indicate that aquatic insect assemblages in relict glaciated subalpine headwaters were strongly differentiated among stream segment types. These results illustrate the contribution of headwaters to riverine biodiversity and emphasise the importance of these habitats for monitoring biotic responses to climate change. Monitoring biotic assemblages in high-elevation headwaters is needed to prevent the potential loss of unique and sensitive biota.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Influence of monsoon-related riparian phenology on yellow-billed cuckoo habitat selection in Arizona

Aim: The western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis), a Neotropical migrant bird, is facing steep population declines in its western breeding grounds owing primarily to loss of native habitat. The favoured esting habitat for the cuckoo in the south-western United States is low-elevation riparian forests and woodlands. Our aim was to explore relationships between vegetation phenology patterns captured by satellite phenometrics and the distribution of the yellow-billed cuckoo, and to use this information to map cuckoo habitat. Location: Arizona, USA. Methods: Land surface phenometrics were derived from satellite Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), bi-weekly time-composite, ormalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for 1998 and 1999 at a resolution of 1 km. Fourier harmonics were used to analyse the waveform of the annual NDVI profile in each pixel. To create the models, we coupled 1998 satellite phenometrics with 1998 field survey data of cuckoo presence or absence and with point data that sampled riparian and cottonwood–willow vegetation types. Our models were verified and refined using field and satellite data collected in 1999. Results: The models reveal that cuckoos prefer areas that experience peak greenness 29 days later, are 36% more dynamic and slightly (< 1%) more productive than their average cottonwood–willow habitat. The results support a scenario in which cuckoos migrate northwards, following the greening of riparian corridors and surrounding landscapes in response to monsoon precipitation, but then select a nesting site based on optimizing the near-term foraging potential of the neighbourhood. Main conclusions: The identification of preferred phenotypes within recognized habitat can be used to refine future habitat models, inform habitat response to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies. For example, models of phenotype preferences can guide management actions by identifying and prioritizing for conservation those landscapes that reliably exhibit highly preferred phenometrics on a consistent basis.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Science↗
USGS2016

Leaf development and demography explain photosynthetic seasonality in Amazon evergreen forests

In evergreen tropical forests, the extent, magnitude, and controls on photosynthetic seasonality are poorly resolved and inadequately represented in Earth system models. Combining camera observations with ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at forests across rainfall gradients in Amaz&ocirc;nia, we show that aggregate canopy phenology, not seasonality of climate drivers, is the primary cause of photosynthetic seasonality in these forests. Specifically, synchronization of new leaf growth with dry season litterfall shifts canopy composition toward younger, more light-use efficient leaves, explaining large seasonal increases (~27%) in ecosystem photosynthesis. Coordinated leaf development and demography thus reconcile seemingly disparate observations at different scales and indicate that accounting for leaf-level phenology is critical for accurately simulating ecosystem-scale responses to climate change.

Science↗
USGS1997

Responses of sediment geochemistry to climate change in Owens Lake sediment: An 800-k.y. record of saline/fresh cycles in core OL-92

Geochemical parameters of sediments from drill hole OL-92 indicate that Owens Lake was saline, alkaline, and highly productive during interglacial periods, and was hydrologically open and relatively unproductive during glacial periods. Abundance of CaCO 3 , organic carbon, and cation-exchange capacity of the clay fraction show cyclic variation down the core. Six minima in these components during the past 500 k.y. are interpreted as caused by intensive overflow that occurred during Sierran glacial advances. Maxima in these components indicate closed-lake conditions, reflecting warmer and more arid interglacial climates. The pattern of CaCO 3 abundance suggests that closed lake conditions predominated over the past 500 k.y. The absence of gaylussite and gypsum in the sediments, however, indicates lake salinity never exceeded about 15 wt %, a limit which requires flushing of accumulated salts every 10 k.y. Oscillations of CaCO 3 generally indicate a 100-k.y. dominant cycle, a characteristic of the marine δ 18 O record. Four of the last five marine isotope terminations are clearly shown in the Owens Lake record. The last interglacial at Owens Lake appears to have occurred between 120 ka and 50 ka. The roughly 10-k.y. offset between this interval and marine oxygen-isotope stage 5 reflects either error in the age-depth model, or alternatively, a time lag between changes in Northern Hemisphere ice volumes and the manifestation of local climate change in lake geochemistry and sedimentology.

California↗
USGS2008

Late pleistocene aggradation and degradation of the lower colorado river: Perspectives from the Cottonwood area and other reconnaissance below Boulder Canyon

Where the lower Colorado River traverses the Basin and Range Province below the Grand Canyon, significant late Pleistocene aggradation and subsequent degrada tion of the river are indicated by luminescence, paleomagnetic, and U-series data and stratigraphy. Aggradational, finely bedded reddish mud, clay, and silt are underlain and overlain by cross-bedded to plane-bedded fine sand and silt. That sequence is commonly disconformably overlain by up to 15 m of coarse sand, rounded exotic gravel, and angular, locally derived gravel. Luminescence dates on the fine sediments range from ca. 40 ka to 70 ka, considering collective uncertainties. A section of fine grained sediments over a vertical range of 15 m shows normal polarity magnetization and little apparent secular variation beyond dispersion that can be explained by com paction. Aggradation on large local tributaries such as Las Vegas Wash appears to have been coeval with that of the Colorado River. The upper limits of erosional rem nants of the sequence define a steeper grade above the historical river, and these late Pleistocene deposits are greater than 100 m above the modern river north of 35??N. Ter race gravels inset below the upper limit of the aggradational sequence yield 230Th dates that range from ca. 32 ka to 60 ka and indicate that degradation of the river system in this area closely followed aggradation. The thick sequence of rhythmically bedded mud and silt possibly indicates set tings that were ponded laterally between valley slopes and levees of the aggrading river. Potential driving mechanisms for such aggradation and degradation include sediment-yield response to climate change, drought, fire, vegetation-ecosystem dynam ics, glaciation, paleofloods, groundwater discharge, and building and destruction of natural dams produced by volcanism and landslides. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2017

Luminescence dating of paleolake deltas and glacial deposits in Garwood Valley, Antarctica: Implications for climate, Ross ice sheet dynamics, and paleolake duration

The formation of perched deltas and other lacustrine deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is widely considered to be evidence of valley-filling lakes dammed by the grounded Ross Sea ice sheet during the local Last Glacial Maximum, with lake drainage interpreted as a record of grounding line retreat. We used luminescence dating to determine the age of paleolake deltas and glacial tills in Garwood Valley, a coastal dry valley that opens to the Ross Sea. Luminescence ages are stratigraphically consistent with radiocarbon results from algal mats within the same delta deposits but suggest radiocarbon dates from lacustrine carbonates may overestimate deposit ages by thousands of years. Results suggest that late Holocene delta deposition into paleolake Howard in Garwood Valley persisted until ca. 3.5 ka. This is significantly younger than the date when grounded ice is thought to have retreated from the Ross Sea. Our evidence suggests that the local, stranded ice-cored till topography in Garwood Valley, rather than regional ice-sheet dynamics, may have controlled lake levels for some McMurdo Dry Valleys paleolakes. Age control from the supraglacial Ross Sea drift suggests grounding and up-valley advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet into Garwood valley during marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4 (71–78 ka) and the local Last Glacial Maximum (9–10 ka). This work demonstrates the power of combining luminescence dating with existing radiocarbon data sets to improve understanding of the relationships among paleolake formation, glacial position, and stream discharge in response to climate change.

GSA Bulletin↗
USGS2016

Microrefuges and the occurrence of thermal specialists: implications for wildlife persistence amidst changing temperatures

Background Contemporary climate change is affecting nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions, phenology, and persistence. Favorable microclimates may buffer organisms against rapid changes in climate, thereby allowing time for populations to adapt. The degree to which microclimates facilitate the local persistence of climate-sensitive species, however, is largely an open question. We addressed the importance of microrefuges in mammalian thermal specialists, using the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) as a model organism. Pikas are sensitive to ambient temperatures, and are active year-round in the alpine where conditions are highly variable. We tested four hypotheses about the relationship between microrefuges and pika occurrence: 1) Local-habitat Hypothesis (local-habitat conditions are paramount, regardless of microrefuge); 2) Surface-temperature Hypothesis (surrounding temperatures, unmoderated by microrefuge, best predict occurrence); 3) Interstitial-temperature Hypothesis (temperatures within microrefuges best predict occurrence), and 4) Microrefuge Hypothesis (the degree to which microrefuges moderate the surrounding temperature facilitates occurrence, regardless of other habitat characteristics). We examined pika occurrence at 146 sites across an elevational gradient. We quantified pika presence, physiographic habitat characteristics and forage availability at each site, and deployed paired temperature loggers at a subset of sites to measure surface and subterranean temperatures. Results We found strong support for the Microrefuge Hypothesis. Pikas were more likely to occur at sites where the subsurface environment substantially moderated surface temperatures, especially during the warm season. Microrefugium was the strongest predictor of pika occurrence, independent of other critical habitat characteristics, such as forage availability. Conclusions By modulating surface temperatures, microrefuges may strongly influence where temperature-limited animals persist in rapidly warming environments. As climate change continues to manifest, efforts to understand the changing dynamics of animal-habitat relationships will be enhanced by considering the quality of microrefuges.

Climate Change Responses↗
USGS2017

Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Background Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing. Methods Focusing on the climate-sensitive Belding’s ground squirrel ( Urocitellus beldingi ), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity. Results Across California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi . More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity. Conclusions Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.

California↗
USGS2005

Aeolian sand preserved in Silver Lake: a new signal of Holocene high stands of Lake Michigan

Aeolian sand within lake sediment from Silver Lake, Michigan can be used as a proxy for the timing of high lake levels of Lake Michigan.We demonstrate that the sand record from Silver Lake plotted as percent weight is in-phase with the elevation curve of Lake Michigan since the mid-Holocene Nipissing Phase. Because fluctuations in Lake Michigan's lake level are recorded in beach ridges, and are a response to climate change, the aeolian sand record within Silver Lake is also a proxy for climate change. It appears that increases in dune activity and lake sand are controlled by similar climatic shifts that drive fluctuations in lake level of Lake Michigan. High lake levels destabilize coastal bluffs that drive dune sand instability, and along with greater wintertime storminess, increase niveo-aeolian transport of sand across lake ice. The sand is introduced into the lake each spring as the ice cover melts.

Holocene↗
USGS2012

A plant distribution shift: temperature, drought or past disturbance?

Simple models of plant response to warming climates predict vegetation moving to cooler and/or wetter locations: in mountainous regions shifting upslope. However, species-specific responses to climate change are likely to be much more complex. We re-examined a recently reported vegetation shift in the Santa Rosa Mountains, California, to better understand the mechanisms behind the reported shift of a plant distribution upslope. We focused on five elevational zones near the center of the gradient that captured many of the reported shifts and which are dominated by fire-prone chaparral. Using growth rings, we determined that a major assumption of the previous work was wrong: past fire histories differed among elevations. To examine the potential effect that this difference might have on the reported upward shift, we focused on one species, Ceanothus greggii : a shrub that only recruits post-fire from a soil stored seedbank. For five elevations used in the prior study, we calculated time series of past per-capita mortality rates by counting growth rings on live and dead individuals. We tested three alternative hypotheses explaining the past patterns of mortality: 1) mortality increased over time consistent with climate warming, 2) mortality was correlated with drought indices, and 3) mortality peaked 40–50 years post fire at each site, consistent with self-thinning. We found that the sites were different ages since the last fire, and that the reported increase in the mean elevation of C. greggii was due to higher recent mortality at the lower elevations, which were younger sites. The time-series pattern of mortality was best explained by the self-thinning hypothesis and poorly explained by gradual warming or drought. At least for this species, the reported distribution shift appears to be an artifact of disturbance history and is not evidence of a climate warming effect.

California↗
USGS2016

Ungulate reproductive parameters track satellite observations of plant phenology across latitude and climatological regimes

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus ) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004–2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season (“Start” and “Peak”, respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production, across latitude and changing climatological regimes. Practically, this demonstrates the potential for broad-scale modeling of couplings between climate, plant phenology, and animal populations using space-borne observations.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2019

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units, and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories.

California↗
USGS2015

Improved arrival-date estimates of Arctic-breeding Dunlin ( Calidris alpina arcticola )

The use of stable isotopes in animal ecology depends on accurate descriptions of isotope dynamics within individuals. The prevailing assumption that laboratory-derived isotopic parameters apply to free-living animals is largely untested. We used stable carbon isotopes (&delta; 13 C) in whole blood from migratory Dunlin ( Calidris alpina arcticola ) to estimate an in situ turnover rate and individual diet-switch dates. Our in situ results indicated that turnover rates were higher in free-living birds, in comparison to the results of an experimental study on captive Dunlin and estimates derived from a theoretical allometric model. Diet-switch dates from all 3 methods were then used to estimate arrival dates to the Arctic; arrival dates calculated with the in situ turnover rate were later than those with the other turnover-rate estimates, substantially so in some cases. These later arrival dates matched dates when local snow conditions would have allowed Dunlin to settle, and agreed with anticipated arrival dates of Dunlin tracked with light-level geolocators. Our study presents a novel method for accurately estimating arrival dates for individuals of migratory species in which return dates are difficult to document. This may be particularly appropriate for species in which extrinsic tracking devices cannot easily be employed because of cost, body size, or behavioral constraints, and in habitats that do not allow individuals to be detected easily upon first arrival. Thus, this isotopic method offers an exciting alternative approach to better understand how species may be altering their arrival dates in response to changing climatic conditions.

The Auk↗