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USGS2026

Climate change vulnerability assessment for guiding ecosystem restoration in fire-prone landscapes of the western U.S.

Climate-driven alterations to fire regimes challenges forest management and restoration in the western United States, where increased wildfire severity threatens ecosystem integrity and resilience. In this study, we demonstrate the application of the FireCLIME (Fire-Climate-Landscape Interactions in Montane Ecosystems) Vulnerability Assessment (VA) as a decision-support tool for evaluating management actions, including restoration strategies, under climate uncertainty. Through collaborative workshops with USDA Forest Service managers, we assessed three project areas in two national forests: Lincoln National Forest (LNF, New Mexico) and Bighorn National Forest (BNF, Wyoming). These two locations represent distinct climate zones, forest ecosystems, and fire regimes. We examined how changing climate and fire regimes affect ecosystem vulnerability with the FireCLIME VA, which integrates exposure to climate and fire regime changes, ecosystem response factors, and adaptive capacity via management intervention to compare vulnerability outcomes relative to desired future conditions (DFC). Results revealed that forests that departed more from historical conditions (LNF) exhibited greater vulnerability. Soil burn severity and associated erosion emerged as common vulnerability drivers across all sites. For both forests, treatments were able to reduce departure from DFC. Treatment effectiveness varied by ecosystem type; some interventions demonstrated broad capacity to lower vulnerability and achieve DFC for a wide range of components, while others had more targeted effects for specific components. This assessment framework reveals substantial synergy between climate adaptation planning and restoration ecology principles, suggesting that vulnerability assessments can effectively guide restoration planning under climate uncertainty by balancing risk reduction with ecosystem resilience enhancement.

New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Climate-driven shifts in soil temperature and moisture regimes suggest opportunities to enhance assessments of dryland resilience and resistance

Assessing landscape patterns in climate vulnerability, as well as resilience and resistance to drought, disturbance, and invasive species, requires appropriate metrics of relevant environmental conditions. In dryland systems of western North America, soil temperature and moisture regimes have been widely utilized as an indicator of resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive plant species by providing integrative indicators of long-term site aridity, which relates to ecosystem recovery potential and climatic suitability to invaders. However, the impact of climate change on these regimes, and the suitability of the indicator for estimating resistance and resilience in the context of climate change have not been assessed. Here we utilized a daily time-step, process-based, ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America, and evaluate the impact of these changes on estimation of resilience and resistance. Soil temperature increases in the twenty-first century are substantial, relatively uniform geographically, and robust across climate models. Higher temperatures will expand the areas of mesic and thermic soil temperature regimes while decreasing the area of cryic and frigid temperature conditions. Projections for future precipitation are more variable both geographically and among climate models. Nevertheless, future soil moisture conditions are relatively consistent across climate models for much of the region. Projections of drier soils are expected in most of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as the central and southern U.S. Great Plains. By contrast, areas with projections of increasing soil moisture include northeastern Montana, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and many areas dominated by big sagebrush, particularly the Central and Northern Basin and Range and the Wyoming Basin ecoregions. In addition, many areas dominated by big sagebrush are expected to experience pronounced shifts toward cool season moisture, which will create more area with xeric moisture conditions and less area with ustic conditions. In addition to indicating widespread geographic shifts in the distribution of soil temperature and moisture regimes, our results suggest opportunities for enhancing the integration of these conditions into a quantitative framework for assessing climate change impacts on dryland ecosystem resilience and resistance that is responsive to long-term projections.

Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, California, Co↗

USGS2023

Climate change and maple syrup: Producer observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies

Introduction: Climate change is impacting forest-based agricultural systems with implications for producer decision-making and livelihoods. This article presents a case study on the observations, perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies of maple syrup producers in the United States to climate change. Methods: We carried out two semi-structured surveys with maple producers on: (1) climate change and its impacts on the maple system ( n = 106 participants); and (2) responses to climate adaptation scenarios ( n = 98 participants). Additionally, we carried out two focus groups and key informant interviews ( n = 70+) to understand barriers and opportunities for climate adaptation. One of these focus groups and follow up key informant interviews was with tribally affiliated community members with the intention to acknowledge Indigenous Peoples’ voices, history, and relationships to the land. Results: Findings highlight that most of the surveyed producers (89%) have experienced the negative impacts of climate on maple syrup production. While 40% of participants feel concerned regarding the future of the maple system, 39% feel hopeful, with significant differences based on the age of the surveyed producers. The majority of producers have adapted their harvesting practices to climate effects. Producers shared knowledge of multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate scenarios comprised of: (1) stand management practices such as diversification of sap species tapped; (2) harvesting practices such as changing the type and number of taps; (3) sap processing practices focused on the integration of technology such as the use of an evaporator and reverse osmosis; and (4) marketing practices such as innovation of products and marketing different maple syrup characteristics. Responses shared by tribally affiliated producers highlight knowledge of multiple adaptation strategies that focus on long-term ecological management of forests rather than technological solutions. Discussion: Overall, findings emphasize the importance of cooperation and diversification at every level and dimension of the maple system for its long-term resilience.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗

USGS2009

Climate in the dry central Andes over geologic, millenial, and interannual timescales

Over the last eight years, we have developed several paleoenvironmental records from a broad geographic region spanning the Altiplano in Bolivia (18°S–22°S) and continuing south along the western Andean flank to ca. 26°S. These records include: cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in surface deposits, dated nitrate paleosoils, lake levels, groundwater levels from wetland deposits, and plant macrofossils from urine-encrusted rodent middens. Arid environments are often uniquely sensitive to climate perturbations, and there is evidence of significant changes in precipitation on the western flank of the central Andes and the adjacent Altiplano. In contrast, the Atacama Desert of northern Chile is hyperarid over many millions of years. This uniquely prolonged arid climate requires the isolation of the Atacama from the Amazon Basin, a situation that has existed for more than 10 million years and that resulted from the uplift of the Andes and/or formation of the Altiplano plateau. New evidence from multiple terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, however, suggests that overall aridity is occasionally punctuated by rare rainfall events that likely originate from the Pacific. East of the hyperarid zone, climate history from multiple proxies reveals alternating wet and dry intervals where changes in precipitation originating from the Atlantic may exceed 50%. An analysis of Pleistocene climate records across the region allows reconstruction of the spatial and temporal components of climate change. These Pleistocene wet events span the modern transition between two modes of interannual precipitation variability, and regional climate history for the Central Andean Pluvial Event (CAPE; ca. 18–8 ka) points toward similar drivers of modern interannual and past millennial-scale climate variability. The north-northeast mode of climate variability is linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and the southeast mode is linked to aridity in the Chaco region of Argentina.

Andes↗

USGS2018

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Fire Ecology↗

USGS1993

Influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 8O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface (<75 meters) when compared to measured data, but that the system could be at steady state conditions at depths of >250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded Tuff Members, do not appear to act as capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2005

Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change. To meet this challenge, mountain scientists increasingly are modeling the vast array of relationships that comprise ecosystem dynamics. Dynamic modeling can examine the interactions between land management strategies and climatic change to develop appropriate responses to future human demands on mountain systems. Modeling provides spatially and temporally explicit, quantified results that can be validated in the field, thus providing feedback to our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Modeling results, particularly maps and other visual tools, also give a concrete dimension to our understanding of the scale and magnitude of potential future changes. Modeling alerts scientists and land managers to apparently counter-intuitive outcomes of ecosystem responses to climate change or management decisions. For instance, in an early modeling exercise for northwest Montana, USA, Running and Nemani (1991) found that streamflow in a warmer future climate decreased by 30% in the Swan Range even when precipitation was increased by 10% in a particular climate change scenario. This unexpected response was due to enhanced forest growth, and increased evapotranspiration, resulting from the earlier snowmelt and extended growing season. There is a rich legacy of models that address climate and weather, hydrology, forest growth (e.g. gap dynamics and succession), forest fires (e.g. fuel loading) and land cover change (cf. Bugmann et al., this volume). Much less common, however, are attempts to fully integrate models from various disciplines to create a robust system that adequately addresses the entire range of ecosystem dynamics. In addition, fine-resolution modeling of entire mountain ranges (i.e. regional ecosystem scale) is not as common as global or continental scale modeling or watershed/catchment scale modeling. However, this is the scale that is germane to policy decisions such as in the western US and Canada, i.e. in those areas that contain most of the mountainous terrain of North America. This paper describes our efforts to implement an integrated regional modeling approach while characterizing potential future responses of a mountain ecosystem to climate change. Our study area was Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana, USA. Glacier Park is a 4082 km” mountain wilderness that straddles the continental divide and contains over 150 summits of up to 3150 m elevation in the Lewis and Livingston mountain ranges.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Book↗

USGS2016

Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2008

Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure: Gulf Coast study, phase I

Climate affects the design, construction, safety, operations, and maintenance of transportation infrastructure and systems. The prospect of a changing climate raises critical questions regarding how alterations in temperature, precipitation, storm events, and other aspects of the climate could affect the nation's roads, airports, rail, transit systems, pipelines, ports, and waterways. Phase I of this regional assessment of climate change and its potential impacts on transportation systems addresses these questions for the region of the U.S. central Gulf Coast between Galveston, Texas and Mobile, Alabama. This region contains multimodal transportation infrastructure that is critical to regional and national transportation services. Historical trends and future climate scenarios were used to establish a context for examining the potential effects of climate change on all major transportation modes within the region. Climate changes anticipated during the next 50 to 100 years for the central Gulf Coast include warming temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased storm intensity. The warming of oceans and decline of polar ice sheets is expected to accelerate the rate of sea level rise globally. The effects of sea level rise in most central Gulf Coast counties will be exacerbated by the sinking of the land surface, which is accounted for in this assessment. The significance of these climate factors for transportation systems was assessed. Warming temperatures are likely to increase the costs of transportation construction, maintenance, and operations. More frequent extreme precipitation events may disrupt transportation networks with flooding and visibility problems. Relative sea level rise will make much of the existing infrastructure more prone to frequent or permanent inundation--27 percent of the major roads, 9 percent of the rail lines, and 72 percent of the ports are built on land at or below 122 cm (4 feet) in elevation. Increased storm intensity may lead to increased service disruption and infrastructure damage: More than half of the area's major highways (64 percent of Interstates; 57 percent of arterials), almost half of the rail miles, 29 airports, and virtually all of the ports are below 7 m (23 feet) in elevation and subject to flooding and possible damage due to hurricane storm surge. Consideration of these factors in today's transportation decisions and planning processes should lead to a more robust, resilient, and cost-effective transportation network in the coming decades.

Gulf Coast↗

USGS2019

Climate-driven state shifts in the Prairie Pothole Region: Assessing future impacts relevant to the management of wetland habitats critical to waterfowl

Embedded within the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are millions of small, depressional wetlands that annually support 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl production. We recently assembled evidence that demonstrates a change towards a wetter climate that is driving a shift in the state of the region’s wetland ecosystems. This ecological state-shift has been primarily the result of a sustained wet climate that has influenced timing and magnitude of surface-water inputs to wetlands, connections to groundwater, and inputs of dissolved salts. As climate influences continue to change in the PPR, it is important to understand the potential of these changes to impact wetland habitats important for waterfowl production. Previous model simulations of prairie-pothole wetlands under future climate scenarios projected decreases in the ability of wetlands to facilitate waterfowl production throughout the majority of what is currently the most productive portion of the region. Results from these modeling efforts also suggested that suitable waterfowl breeding-habitat would be limited mostly to the southeastern portion of the PPR, a portion of the region in which most depressional wetlands (> 90%) have been drained. Thus, if these modeled outcomes materialize, a significant restoration effort would be needed in the southeastern PPR to support waterfowl production. However, the models used in earlier efforts were developed from a small number of wetlands using data from a relatively dry period and did not allow for changing mechanisms influencing surface-water, groundwater and dissolved salt inputs to prairie-pothole wetlands. The primary objective of our research is to improve our understanding of future climate change on impacts to wetland ecosystems and breeding waterfowl habitat in the PPR. We used a newly developed Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model to estimate wetland ecosystem responses to 32 distinct climate models under 2 different emissions scenarios. Unlike previous wetland hydrology models, the PHyLiSS model allows for shifting hydrological and geochemical mechanisms influencing wetland ecosystems. We modeled one average-sized seasonal wetland basin at 18 different geographic locations (hereafter “sites”) across the PPR with 3 sites represented for each of 6 ecoregions coincident to early research. We applied the PHyLiSS model using historical daily precipitation and temperature data from 1982–2015 and developed linear models relative to ponded water depth in the simulated wetlands and the observed regional WBPHS May Pond count number for 16 of the 18 sites. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21 st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR should continue to focus on areas where high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2022

Puerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021

The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global climate. The following chapters present the current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico and influence the climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, delivery of ecosystem services, the conservation of natural and cultural resources, resiliency in built and natural systems, and food security. The chapters draw on global expertise of land, atmosphere, and ocean geophysical interactions associated with increasing greenhouse gases that drive global warming and on local scientific expertise, data, observations, and modeled projections. They present the global warming scenario (section 1), the contribution of Puerto Rico to global climate change as GHG emissions and aerosols (section 2), the context of natural climate variability (section 3), observed and projected trends in temperature (section 4), rainfall (section 5), sea level rise (section 6), ocean acidification and sea surface warming (section 7), and the expected implications of warming climate on tropical cyclones affecting Puerto Rico (section 8).

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2024

Incorporating climate data into emergency planning and exercises: A primer for emergency management practioners and data developers

Climate change has and will continue to sharpen climate-related risks to communities and natural resources in California and elsewhere, as the probabilities of more extreme weather, floods, and fires continue to increase. This poses a problem of novel situations for emergency management. Progress has been made in terms of formally incorporating climate projections, data, and research on expected changes in climate-driven hazards into long-term hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies at both state and national levels. However, there are fewer examples of how climate change considerations have, or could be, incorporated into shorter-term emergency preparedness and response strategies. This is an important gap to fill, as climate resilience depends not only on mitigation and prevention measures, but also on the ability of agencies to coordinate and effectively minimize impacts when prevention measures fall short. The goal of this primer is to provide guidance on how to incorporate the best available information on climate variability and change into emergency management planning, with a focus on the development and use of extreme weather event scenarios for use in exercises. The first section is aimed toward a broad audience, including emergency management practitioners who use extreme weather event scenarios. It provides an overview of available data and tools that can inform scenario design as well as techniques for scenario design based on the hazard of interest, the audience and application, and the technical skills and resources required to develop, summarize, and/or visualize the data. This section concludes with an overview of approaches and lessons learned related to extreme event response planning and exercise design. Overall, this section highlights the advantages of developing quantitative scenarios based on spatial data, which allows visualizations and interactive data explorations that can provide greater specificity in discussions related to preparedness and response strategies. It further highlights the advantages of developing a core expert working group to guide planning, holding pre-exercise workshops to engage diverse communities outside of the emergency management sector, and engaging decisionmakers post-exercise to communicate key issues and outcomes as well as potential approaches for mitigating consequences that were identified by participants. The second section is aimed toward the scientific community and data developers involved in the creation of extreme weather event scenarios. This section provides technical guidance and detailed descriptions of four types of data resources and five analytical approaches that can be used to create extreme weather event scenarios based on the design considerations highlighted in section one. The computational resources and expertise required varies substantially across the options presented and is a primary consideration. These requirements, in addition to considerations related to audience and application, may determine the novelty and detail of the event, the detail of weather forecast information that can be provided, and the spatial extent across which the event can reasonably be modeled. The importance of, and approaches for, delivering information in a form that is accessible to emergency management practitioners is also discussed.

Report↗

USGS2011

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—themeltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic toWaterton- Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (&sim;500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.

Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park↗

USGS2013

The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) , listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2°C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5%. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Assessing climate-change risks to cultural and natural resources in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

We provide an overview of an interdisciplinary special issue that examines the influence of climate change on people and fish in the Yakima River Basin, USA. Jenni et al. (2013) addresses stakeholder-relevant climate change issues, such as water availability and uncertainty, with decision analysis tools. Montag et al. (2014) explores Yakama Tribal cultural values and well-being and their incorporation into the decision-making process. Graves and Maule (2012) simulates effects of climate change on stream temperatures under baseline conditions (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios (increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C). Hardiman and Mesa (2013) looks at the effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth with a bioenergetics model. Finally, Hatten et al. (2013) examines how changes in stream flow will affect salmonids with a rule-based fish habitat model. Our simulations indicate that future summer will be a very challenging season for salmonids when low flows and high water temperatures can restrict movement, inhibit or alter growth, and decrease habitat. While some of our simulations indicate salmonids may benefit from warmer water temperatures and increased winter flows, the majority of simulations produced less habitat. The floodplain and tributary habitats we sampled are representative of the larger landscape, so it is likely that climate change will reduce salmonid habitat potential throughout particular areas of the basin. Management strategies are needed to minimize potential salmonid habitat bottlenecks that may result from climate change, such as keeping streams cool through riparian protection, stream restoration, and the reduction of water diversions. An investment in decision analysis and support technologies can help managers understand tradeoffs under different climate scenarios and possibly improve water and fish conservation over the next century.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2017

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

New Mexico↗