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USGS2011

Epistemic uncertainty in the location and magnitude of earthquakes in Italy from Macroseismic data

Three independent techniques (Bakun and Wentworth, 1997; Boxer from Gasperini et al., 1999; and Macroseismic Estimation of Earthquake Parameters [MEEP; see Data and Resources section, deliverable D3] from R.M.W. Musson and M.J. Jimenez) have been proposed for estimating an earthquake location and magnitude from intensity data alone. The locations and magnitudes obtained for a given set of intensity data are almost always different, and no one technique is consistently best at matching instrumental locations and magnitudes of recent well-recorded earthquakes in Italy. Rather than attempting to select one of the three solutions as best, we use all three techniques to estimate the location and the magnitude and the epistemic uncertainties among them. The estimates are calculated using bootstrap resampled data sets with Monte Carlo sampling of a decision tree. The decision-tree branch weights are based on goodness-of-fit measures of location and magnitude for recent earthquakes. The location estimates are based on the spatial distribution of locations calculated from the bootstrap resampled data. The preferred source location is the locus of the maximum bootstrap location spatial density. The location uncertainty is obtained from contours of the bootstrap spatial density: 68% of the bootstrap locations are within the 68% confidence region, and so on. For large earthquakes, our preferred location is not associated with the epicenter but with a location on the extended rupture surface. For small earthquakes, the epicenters are generally consistent with the location uncertainties inferred from the intensity data if an epicenter inaccuracy of 2-3 km is allowed. The preferred magnitude is the median of the distribution of bootstrap magnitudes. As with location uncertainties, the uncertainties in magnitude are obtained from the distribution of bootstrap magnitudes: the bounds of the 68% uncertainty range enclose 68% of the bootstrap magnitudes, and so on. The instrumental magnitudes for large and small earthquakes are generally consistent with the confidence intervals inferred from the distribution of bootstrap resampled magnitudes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Frequency-dependent attenuation of the Hispaniola Island region of the Caribbean Sea

We determine frequency-dependent attenuation 1/Q( f ) for the Hispaniola region using direct S and Lg waves over five distinct passbands from 0.5 to 16 Hz. Data consist of 832 high-quality vertical and horizontal component waveforms recorded on short-period and broadband seismometers from the devastating 12 January 2010 M 7.0 Haiti earthquake and the rich sequence of aftershocks. For the distance range 250–700 km, we estimate an average frequency-dependent Q( f )=224(±27) f 0.64(±0.073) using horizontal components of motion and note that Q( f ) estimated with Lg at regional distances is very consistent across vertical and horizontal components. We also determine a Q( f )=142(±21) f 0.71(±0.11) for direct S waves at local distances, ≤100 km. The strong attenuation observed on both vertical and horizontal components of motion is consistent with expectations for a tectonically active region.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Afterslip, tremor, and the Denali fault earthquake

We tested the hypothesis that afterslip should be accompanied by tremor using observations of seismic and aseismic deformation surrounding the 2002 M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake (DFE). Afterslip happens more frequently than spontaneous slow slip and has been observed in a wider range of tectonic environments, and thus the existence or absence of tremor accompanying afterslip may provide new clues about tremor generation. We also searched for precursory tremor, as a proxy for posited accelerating slip leading to rupture. Our search yielded no tremor during the five days prior to the DFE or in several intervals in the three months after. This negative result and an array of other observations all may be explained by rupture penetrating below the presumed locked zone into the frictional transition zone. While not unique, such an explanation corroborates previous models of megathrust and transform earthquake ruptures that extend well into the transition zone.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Probabilistic Relationships between Ground‐Motion Parameters and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California

We use a database of approximately 200,000 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) observations of California earthquakes collected from USGS "Did You Feel It?" (DYFI) reports, along with a comparable number of peak ground-motion amplitudes from California seismic networks, to develop probabilistic relationships between MMI and peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), and 0.3-s, 1-s, and 3-s 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA). After associating each ground-motion observation with an MMI computed from all the DYFI responses within 2 km of the observation, we derived a joint probability distribution between MMI and ground motion. We then derived reversible relationships between MMI and each ground-motion parameter by using a total least squares regression to fit a bilinear function to the median of the stacked probability distributions. Among the relationships, the fit to peak ground velocity has the smallest errors, though linear combinations of PGA and PGV give nominally better results. We also find that magnitude and distance terms reduce the overall residuals and are justifiable on an information theoretic basis. For intensities MMI≥5, our results are in close agreement with the relations of Wald, Quitoriano, Heaton, and Kanamori (1999); for lower intensities, our results fall midway between Wald, Quitoriano, Heaton, and Kanamori (1999) and those of Atkinson and Kaka (2007). The earthquakes in the study ranged in magnitude from 3.0 to 7.3, and the distances ranged from less than a kilometer to about 400 km from the source.

California↗

USGS2012

Timing of large earthquakes during the past 500 years along the Santa Cruz Mountains segment of the San Andreas fault at Mill Canyon, near Watsonville, California

A paleoseismic investigation across the Santa Cruz Mountains section of the San Andreas fault at Mill Canyon indicates that four surface‐rupturing earthquakes have occurred there during the past ~500 years. At this site, right‐lateral fault slip has moved a low shutter ridge across the mouth of the canyon, ponding latest Holocene sediments. These alluvial deposits are deformed along a narrow zone of faulting. There is excellent evidence for a 1906 (M 7.8) and three earlier earthquakes consisting of well‐developed fissures, scarps, and colluvial wedges. Deformation resulting from the earlier earthquakes is comparable to that from 1906, suggesting they also were large‐magnitude events. The earthquake prior to 1906 occurred either about A.D. 1750 (1711–1770) or A.D. 1855 (1789–1904), depending on assumptions incorporated into two alternative OxCal models. If the later age range is correct, then the earthquake may have been a historical early‐to‐mid‐nineteenth‐century earthquake, possibly the A.D. 1838 earthquake. Both models are viable, and there is no way to select one over the other with the available data. Two earlier earthquakes occurred about A.D. 1690 (1660–1720) and A.D. 1522 (1454–1605). Using OxCal, recalculation of the age of the reported penultimate earthquake reported from the Grizzly Flat site, located about 10 km northwest of Mill Canyon, indicates it occurred about A.D. 1105–1545, earlier than any of the past three earthquakes, and possibly correlates to the fourth earthquake at Mill Canyon.

California↗

USGS2012

Fluid‐driven seismicity response of the Rinconada fault near Paso Robles, California, to the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon earthquake

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused significant damage in the city of Paso Robles and a persistent cluster of aftershocks close to Paso Robles near the Rinconada fault. Given the importance of secondary aftershock triggering in sequences of large events, a concern is whether this cluster of events could trigger another damaging earthquake near Paso Robles. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is fit to the Rinconada seismicity, and multiple realizations indicate a 0.36% probability of at least one M≥6.0 earthquake during the next 30 years. However, this probability estimate is only as good as the projection into the future of the ETAS model. There is evidence that the seismicity may be influenced by fluid pressure changes, which cannot be forecasted using ETAS. The strongest evidence for fluids is the delay between the San Simeon mainshock and a high rate of seismicity in mid to late 2004. This delay can be explained as having been caused by a pore pressure decrease due to an undrained response to the coseismic dilatation, followed by increased pore pressure during the return to equilibrium. Seismicity migration along the fault also suggests fluid involvement, although the migration is too slow to be consistent with pore pressure diffusion. All other evidence, including focal mechanisms and b‐value, is consistent with tectonic earthquakes. This suggests a model where the role of fluid pressure changes is limited to the first seven months, while the fluid pressure equilibrates. The ETAS modeling adequately fits the events after July 2004 when the pore pressure stabilizes. The ETAS models imply that while the probability of a damaging earthquake on the Rinconada fault has approximately doubled due to the San Simeon earthquake, the absolute probability remains low.

California↗

USGS2012

Tectonic setting of the Wooded Island earthquake swarm, eastern Washington

Magnetic anomalies provide insights into the tectonic implications of a swarm of ~1500 shallow (~1 km deep) earthquakes that occurred in 2009 on the Hanford site,Washington. Epicenters were concentrated in a 2 km2 area nearWooded Island in the Columbia River. The largest earthquake (M 3.0) had first motions consistent with slip on a northwest-striking reverse fault. The swarm was accompanied by 35 mm of vertical surface deformation, seen in satellite interferometry (InSAR), interpreted to be caused by ~50 mm of slip on a northwest-striking reverse fault and associated bedding-plane fault in the underlying Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). A magnetic anomaly over exposed CRBG at Yakima Ridge 40 km northwest of Wooded Island extends southeastward beyond the ridge to the Columbia River, suggesting that the Yakima Ridge anticline and its associated thrust fault extend southeastward in the subsurface. In map view, the concealed anticline passes through the earthquake swarm and lies parallel to reverse faults determined from first motions and InSAR data. A forward model of the magnetic anomaly near Wooded Island is consistent with uplift of concealed CRBG, with the top surface <200 m below the surface. The earthquake swarm and the thrust and bedding-plane faults modeled from interferometry all fall within the northeastern limb of the faulted anticline. Although fluids may be responsible for triggering the Wooded Island earthquake swarm, the seismic and aseismic deformation are consistent with regional-scale tectonic compression across the concealed Yakima Ridge anticline.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Estimating pole/zero errors in GSN-IRIS/USGS network calibration metadata

Mapping the digital record of a seismograph into true ground motion requires the correction of the data by some description of the instrument's response. For the Global Seismographic Network (Butler et al., 2004), as well as many other networks, this instrument response is represented as a Laplace domain pole–zero model and published in the Standard for the Exchange of Earthquake Data (SEED) format. This Laplace representation assumes that the seismometer behaves as a linear system, with any abrupt changes described adequately via multiple time-invariant epochs. The SEED format allows for published instrument response errors as well, but these typically have not been estimated or provided to users. We present an iterative three-step method to estimate the instrument response parameters (poles and zeros) and their associated errors using random calibration signals. First, we solve a coarse nonlinear inverse problem using a least-squares grid search to yield a first approximation to the solution. This approach reduces the likelihood of poorly estimated parameters (a local-minimum solution) caused by noise in the calibration records and enhances algorithm convergence. Second, we iteratively solve a nonlinear parameter estimation problem to obtain the least-squares best-fit Laplace pole–zero–gain model. Third, by applying the central limit theorem, we estimate the errors in this pole–zero model by solving the inverse problem at each frequency in a two-thirds octave band centered at each best-fit pole–zero frequency. This procedure yields error estimates of the 99% confidence interval. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a number of recent Incorporated Research Institutions in Seismology/United States Geological Survey (IRIS/USGS) network calibrations (network code IU).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes

We examine the partition of long‐term geologic slip on the Hayward fault into interseismic creep, coseismic slip, and afterslip. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute expected coseismic slip and afterslip at three alinement array sites for Hayward fault earthquakes with nominal moment magnitudes ranging from about 6.5 to 7.1. We consider how interseismic creep might affect the coseismic slip distribution as well as the variability in locations of large and small slip patches and the magnitude of an earthquake for a given rupture area. We calibrate the estimates to be consistent with the ratio of interseismic creep rate at the alinement array sites to the geologic slip rate for the Hayward fault. We find that the coseismic slip at the surface is expected to comprise only a small fraction of the long‐term geologic slip. The median values of coseismic slip are less than 0.2 m in nearly all cases as a result of the influence of interseismic creep and afterslip. However, afterslip makes a substantial contribution to the long‐term geologic slip and may be responsible for up to 0.5–1.5 m (median plus one standard deviation [S.D.]) of additional slip following an earthquake rupture. Thus, utility and transportation infrastructure could be severely impacted by afterslip in the hours and days following a large earthquake on the Hayward fault that generated little coseismic slip. Inherent spatial variability in earthquake slip combined with the uncertainty in how interseismic creep affects coseismic slip results in large uncertainties in these slip estimates.

California↗

USGS2012

Holocene behavior of the Brigham City segment: implications for forecasting the next large-magnitude earthquake on the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

The Brigham City segment (BCS), the northernmost Holocene‐active segment of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ), is considered a likely location for the next big earthquake in northern Utah. We refine the timing of the last four surface‐rupturing (~Mw 7) earthquakes at several sites near Brigham City (BE1, 2430±250; BE2, 3490±180; BE3, 4510±530; and BE4, 5610±650 cal yr B.P.) and calculate mean recurrence intervals (1060–1500 yr) that are greatly exceeded by the elapsed time (~2500 yr) since the most recent surface‐rupturing earthquake (MRE). An additional rupture observed at the Pearsons Canyon site (PC1, 1240±50 cal yr B.P.) near the southern segment boundary is probably spillover rupture from a large earthquake on the adjacent Weber segment. Our seismic moment calculations show that the PC1 rupture reduced accumulated moment on the BCS about 22%, a value that may have been enough to postpone the next large earthquake. However, our calculations suggest that the segment currently has accumulated more than twice the moment accumulated in the three previous earthquake cycles, so we suspect that additional interactions with the adjacent Weber segment contributed to the long elapse time since the MRE on the BCS. Our moment calculations indicate that the next earthquake is not only overdue, but could be larger than the previous four earthquakes. Displacement data show higher rates of latest Quaternary slip (~1.3 mm/yr) along the southern two‐thirds of the segment. The northern third likely has experienced fewer or smaller ruptures, which suggests to us that most earthquakes initiate at the southern segment boundary.

Utah↗

USGS2012

Using pad‐stripped acausally filtered strong‐motion data

Most strong‐motion data processing involves acausal low‐cut filtering, which requires the addition of sometimes lengthy zero pads to the data. These padded sections are commonly removed by organizations supplying data, but this can lead to incompatibilities in measures of ground motion derived in the usual way from the padded and the pad‐stripped data. One way around this is to use the correct initial conditions in the pad‐stripped time series when computing displacements, velocities, and linear oscillator response. Another way of ensuring compatibility is to use postprocessing of the pad‐stripped acceleration time series. Using 4071 horizontal and vertical acceleration time series from the Turkish strong‐motion database, we show that the procedures used by two organizations—ITACA (ITalian ACcelerometric Archive) and PEER NGA (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center–Next Generation Attenuation)—lead to little bias and distortion of derived seismic‐intensity measures.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Seismic velocity model of the central United States (Version 1): Description and simulation of the 18 April 2008 Mt. Carmel, Illinois, Earthquake

We have developed a new three‐dimensional seismic velocity model of the central United States (CUSVM) that includes the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) and covers parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The model represents a compilation of decades of crustal research consisting of seismic, aeromagnetic, and gravity profiles; geologic mapping; geophysical and geological borehole logs; and inversions of the regional seismic properties. The density, P ‐ and S ‐wave velocities are synthesized in a stand‐alone spatial database that can be queried to generate the required input for numerical seismic‐wave propagation simulations. We test and calibrate the CUSVM by simulating ground motions of the 18 April 2008 M w 5.4 Mt. Carmel, Illinois, earthquake and comparing the results with observed records within the model area. The selected stations in the comparisons reflect different geological site conditions and cover distances ranging from 10 to 430 km from the epicenter. The results, based on a qualitative and quantitative goodness‐of‐fit (GOF) characterization, indicate that both within and outside the Mississippi Embayment the CUSVM reasonably reproduces: (1) the body and surface‐wave arrival times and (2) the observed regional variations in ground‐motion amplitude, cumulative energy, duration, and frequency content up to a frequency of 1.0 Hz. In addition, we discuss the probable structural causes for the ground‐motion patterns in the central United States that we observed in the recorded motions of the 18 April Mt. Carmel earthquake.

Illinois↗

USGS2013

Low footwall accelerations and variable surface rupture behavior on the Fort Sage Mountains fault, northeast California

The Fort Sage Mountains fault zone is a normal fault in the Walker Lane of the western Basin and Range that produced a small surface rupture (<20 cm) during an M L 5.6 earthquake in 1950. We investigate the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault and find evidence for two paleoearthquakes with surface displacements much larger than those observed in 1950. Rupture of the Fort Sage fault ∼5.6 ka resulted in surface displacements of at least 0.8–1.5 m, implying earthquake moment magnitudes (M w ) of 6.7–7.1. An older rupture at ∼20.5 ka displaced the ground at least 1.5 m, implying an earthquake of M w 6.8–7.1. A field of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) is located less than 1 km from the surface‐rupture trace of this Holocene‐active normal fault. Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) predict peak ground accelerations (PGAs) of 0.2–0.3g for the 1950 rupture and 0.3–0.5g for the ∼5.6 ka paleoearthquake one kilometer from the fault‐surface trace, yet field tests indicate that the Fort Sage PBRs will be toppled by PGAs between 0.1–0.3g. We discuss the paleoseismic history of the Fort Sage fault in the context of the nearby PBRs, GMPEs, and probabilistic seismic hazard maps for extensional regimes. If the Fort Sage PBRs are older than the mid‐Holocene rupture on the Fort Sage fault zone, this implies that current GMPEs may overestimate near‐fault footwall ground motions at this site.

California↗

USGS2012

Slip rate on the San Diego trough fault zone, inner California Borderland, and the 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm revisited

The San Diego trough fault zone (SDTFZ) is part of a 90-km-wide zone of faults within the inner California Borderland that accommodates motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Along with most faults offshore southern California, the slip rate and paleoseismic history of the SDTFZ are unknown. We present new seismic reflection data that show that the fault zone steps across a 5-km-wide stepover to continue for an additional 60 km north of its previously mapped extent. The 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm is located within the 20-km-long restraining stepover. Farther north, at the latitude of Santa Catalina Island, the SDTFZ bends 20° to the west and may be linked via a complex zone of folds with the San Pedro basin fault zone (SPBFZ). In a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), we measure and date the coseismic offset of a submarine channel that intersects the fault zone near the SDTFZ–SPBFZ junction. We estimate a horizontal slip rate of about 1:5 0:3 mm=yr over the past 12,270 yr.

California↗

USGS2013

Seismic imaging of the Waltham Canyon fault, California: comparison of ray‐theoretical and Fresnel volume prestack depth migration

Near‐vertical faults can be imaged using reflected refractions identified in controlled‐source seismic data. Often theses phases are observed on a few neighboring shot or receiver gathers, resulting in a low‐fold data set. Imaging can be carried out with Kirchhoff prestack depth migration in which migration noise is suppressed by constructive stacking of large amounts of multifold data. Fresnel volume migration can be used for low‐fold data without severe migration noise, as the smearing along isochrones is limited to the first Fresnel zone around the reflection point. We developed a modified Fresnel volume migration technique to enhance imaging of steep faults and to suppress noise and undesired coherent phases. The modifications include target‐oriented filters to separate reflected refractions from steep‐dipping faults and reflections with hyperbolic moveout. Undesired phases like multiple reflections, mode conversions, direct P and S waves, and surface waves are suppressed by these filters. As an alternative approach, we developed a new prestack line‐drawing migration method, which can be considered as a proxy to an infinite frequency approximation of the Fresnel volume migration. The line‐drawing migration is not considering waveform information but requires significantly shorter computational time. Target‐oriented filters were extended by dip filters in the line‐drawing migration method. The migration methods were tested with synthetic data and applied to real data from the Waltham Canyon fault, California. The two techniques are applied best in combination, to design filters and to generate complementary images of steep faults.

California↗

USGS2013

Site Response and Basin Waves in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is an inland delta at the western extent of the Central Valley. Levees were built around swampy islands starting after the Civil War to reclaim these lands for farming. Various studies show that these levees could fail in concert from shaking from a major local or regional earthquake resulting in salty water from the San Francisco Bay contaminating the water in the Delta. We installed seismographs around the Delta and on levees to assess the contribution of site response to the seismic hazard of the levees. Cone penetrometer testing shows that the upper 10 s of meters of soil in the Delta have shear‐wave velocities of about 200 m/s, which would give a strong site response. Seismographs were sited following two strategies: pairs of stations to compare the response of the levees to nearby sites, and a more regional deployment in the Delta. Site response was determined in two different ways: a traditional spectral ratio (TSR) approach of S waves using station BDM of the Berkeley Digital Seismic Net as a reference site, and using SH / SV ratios of noise (or Nakamura’s method). Both estimates usually agree in spectral character for stations whose response is dominated by a resonant peak, but the most obvious peaks in the SH / SV ratios usually are about two‐thirds as large as the main peaks in the TSRs. Levee sites typically have large narrow resonances in the site response function compared to sites in the farmland of the Delta. These resonances, at a frequency of about 1–3 Hz, have amplitudes of about 15 with TSR and 10–12 with Nakamura’s method. Sites on farmland in the Delta also have amplifications, but these are typically broader and not as resonant in appearance. Late (slow) Rayleigh waves were recorded at stations in the Delta, have a dominant period of about one second, and are highly monochromatic. Results from a three‐station array at the Holland Marina suggest that they have a phase velocity of about 600 m/s and arrive at about the same azimuth as the straight‐line back azimuth to the source. A dispersion curve determined for the basin or valley waves yields a shallow velocity profile that increases from about 350 m/s in the upper 0.2 km to about 1.1 km/s at a depth of about 2 km.

California↗