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USGS2022

Maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth Observation data and machine learning

Food insecurity continues to grow in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2019, chronically malnourished people numbered nearly 240 million, or 20% of the population in SSA. Globally, numerous efforts have been made to anticipate potential droughts, crop conditions, and food shortages in order to improve early warning and risk management for food insecurity. To support this goal, we develop an Earth Observation (EO) and machine-learning-based operational, subnational maize yield forecast system and evaluate its out-of-sample forecast skills during the growing seasons for Kenya, Somalia, Malawi, and Burkina Faso. In general, forecast skills improve substantially during the vegetative growth period (VP) and gradually during the reproductive development period (RP). Thus, mid-season assessment can provide effective early warning months before harvest. Skillful forecasts (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) > 0.6 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) < 20%) appear approximately two dekads after the VP; for example, skillful forecasts appear in May in Kenya and Somalia, January in Malawi, and July in Burkina Faso. During model development, effective EO features are also identified, such as precipitation and available water during VP, and dry days and extreme temperatures in early VP. Compared to monthly standard EO features, sub-monthly (dekadal), non-standard, and serial EO features significantly improve forecast skills by ＋ 0.3 NSE and -10% of MAPE, demonstrating the ability to precisely and effectively capture favorable or detrimental crop development conditions. Finally, skillful forecasts and practical utility are demonstrated in the recent normal and dry years in each region. Overall, the developed yield forecasting system can provide skillful predictions during the growing season, supporting regional and international agricultural decision-making processes, including informing food-security planning and management, thereby helping to mitigate food shortages caused by unfavorable climate conditions.

Global Food Security↗

USGS2022

A quantitative soil-geomorphic framework for developing and mapping ecological site groups

Land management decisions need context about how landscapes will respond to different circumstances or actions. As ecologists’ understanding of nonlinear ecological dynamics has evolved into state-and-transition models (STMs), they have put more emphasis on defining and mapping the soil, geomorphological, and climate parameters that mediate these dynamics. The US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service ecological site descriptions (ESDs) have become the foremost system in classifying lands into ecological units based on STMs. However, an exhaustive inventory of ESDs has proved challenging to complete in the United States, and there have been questions about the consistency of detail in areas completed and the ability to objectively support some assertions made in existing ESDs. To address these issues, this study examines ESDs in the diverse Upper Colorado River region, where ESDs are only partially complete, to look at quantitative approaches to generalizing ecological site concepts based on unifying underlying soil, geomorphology, and climate patterns. Using existing ESDs and vegetation monitoring plot data, results show that a simple hierarchical soil geomorphic unit (SGU) framework based on topographic mediation of moisture, soil salinity, soil depth, slope, rock content, and soil texture can represent much of the ecological dynamics cataloged in ESDs. Analyses of reference plant production data, ecological state attribution, and regional monitoring data show that the new SGUs represent more variation than common climate parameters. This study also included predictively mapping SGUs at 30-m resolution (Kappa of 0.53, 74% agreement with top two predictions in validation). An optimized combination of SGUs with climate zones derived from an aridity index and maximum temperature of the hottest month resulted in an ecological site group framework that condensed over 826 unique ecological site records at various stages of completeness in the regional soil survey down to 35 intuitive and mappable ecological site groups.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2022

Fifty years of Landsat science and impacts

Since 1972, the Landsat program has been continually monitoring the Earth, to now provide 50 years of digital, multispectral, medium spatial resolution observations. Over this time, Landsat data were crucial for many scientific and technical advances. Prior to the Landsat program, detailed, synoptic depictions of the Earth's surface were rare, and the ability to acquire and work with large datasets was limited. The early years of the Landsat program delivered a series of technological breakthroughs, pioneering new methods, and demonstrating the ability and capacity of digital satellite imagery, creating a template for other global Earth observation missions and programs. Innovations driven by the Landsat program have paved the way for subsequent science, application, and policy support activities. The economic and scientific value of the knowledge gained through the Landsat program has been long recognized, and despite periods of funding uncertainty, has resulted in the program's 50 years of continuity, as well as substantive and ongoing improvements to payload and mission performance. Free and open access to Landsat data, enacted in 2008, was unprecedented for medium spatial resolution Earth observation data and substantially increased usage and led to a proliferation of science and application opportunities. Here, we highlight key developments over the past 50 years of the Landsat program that have influenced and changed our scientific understanding of the Earth system. Major scientific and programmatic impacts have been realized in the areas of agricultural crop mapping and water use, climate change drivers and impacts, ecosystems and land cover monitoring, and mapping the changing human footprint. The introduction of Landsat collection processing, coupled with the free and open data policy, facilitated a transition in Landsat data usage away from single images and towards time series analyses over large areas and has fostered the widespread use of science-grade data. The launch of Landsat-9 on September 27, 2021, and the advanced planning of its successor mission, Landsat-Next, underscore the sustained institutional support for the program. Such support and commitment to continuity is recognition of both the historic impact the program, and the future potential to build upon Landsat's remarkable 50-year legacy.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2008

Rethinking avian response to Tamarix on the lower Colorado River: A threshold hypothesis

Many of the world's large river systems have been greatly altered in the past century due to river regulation, agriculture, and invasion of introduced Tamarix spp. (saltcedar, tamarisk). These riverine ecosystems are known to provide important habitat for avian communities, but information on responses of birds to differing levels of Tamarix is not known. Past research on birds along the Colorado River has shown that avian abundance in general is greater in native than in non-native habitat. In this article, we address habitat restoration on the lower Colorado River by comparing abundance and diversity of avian communities at a matrix of different amounts of native and non-native habitats at National Wildlife Refuges in Arizona. Two major patterns emerged from this study: (1) Not all bird species responded to Tamarix in a similar fashion, and for many bird species, abundance was highest at intermediate Tamarix levels (40-60%), suggesting a response threshold. (2) In Tamarix-dominated habitats, the greatest increase in bird abundance occurred when small amounts of native vegetation were present as a component of that habitat. In fact, Tamarix was the best vegetation predictor of avian abundance when compared to vegetation density and canopy cover. Our results suggest that to positively benefit avian abundance and diversity, one cost-effective way to rehabilitate larger monoculture Tamarix stands would be to add relatively low levels of native vegetation (???20-40%) within homogenous Tamarix habitat. In addition, this could be much more cost effective and feasible than attempting to replace all Tamarix with native vegetation. ?? 2008 Society for Ecological Restoration International.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2020

Microplastics in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, USA: Occurrence and biological uptake

Microplastics are an environmental contaminant of growing concern, but there is a lack of information about microplastic distribution, persistence, availability, and biological uptake in freshwater systems. This is especially true for large river systems like the Colorado River that spans multiple states through mostly rural and agricultural land use. This study characterized the quantity and morphology of microplastics in different environmental compartments in two large reservoirs along the Colorado River: Lakes Mead and Mohave, within Lake Mead National Recreation Area. To assess microplastic occurrence, surface water and surficial sediment were sampled at a total of nine locations. Sampling locations targeted different sub-basins with varying levels of anthropogenic impact. Las Vegas Wash, a tributary which delivers treated wastewater to Lake Mead, was also sampled. A sediment core (33 cm long, representing approximately 19 years) was extracted from Las Vegas Bay to assess changes in microplastic deposition over time. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis), common carp (Cyprinus carpio), quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis), and Asian clams (Corbicula fluminea) were sampled at a subset of locations to assess biological uptake of microplastics. Microplastic concentrations were 0.44-9.7 particles/cubic meter at the water surface and 87.5-1,010 particles/kilogram dry weight (kg dw) at the sediment surface. Sediment core concentrations were 220-2,040 particles/kg dw, with no clear increasing or decreasing trend over time. Shellfish microplastic concentrations ranged from 2.7-105 particles/organism, and fish concentrations ranged from 0-19 particles/organism. Fibers were the most abundant particle type found in all sample types. Although sample numbers are small, microplastic concentrations appear to be higher in areas of greater anthropogenic impact. Results from this study improve our understanding of the occurrence and biological uptake of microplastics in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, and help fill existing knowledge gaps on microplastics in freshwater environments in the southwestern U.S.

Nevada↗

USGS2011

Project plan-Surficial geologic mapping and hydrogeologic framework studies in the Greater Platte River Basins (Central Great Plains) in support of ecosystem and climate change research

The Greater Platte River Basin area spans a central part of the Midcontinent and Great Plains from the Rocky Mountains on the west to the Missouri River on the east, and is defined to include drainage areas of the Platte, Niobrara, and Republican Rivers, the Rainwater Basin, and other adjoining areas overlying the northern High Plains aquifer. The Greater Platte River Basin contains abundant surficial deposits that were sensitive to, or are reflective of, the climate under which they formed: deposits from multiple glaciations in the mountain headwaters of the North and South Platte Rivers and from continental ice sheets in eastern Nebraska; fluvial terraces (ranging from Tertiary to Holocene in age) along the rivers and streams; vast areas of eolian sand in the Nebraska Sand Hills and other dune fields (recording multiple episodes of dune activity); thick sequences of windblown silt (loess); and sediment deposited in numerous lakes and wetlands. In addition, the Greater Platte River Basin overlies and contributes surface water to the High Plains aquifer, a nationally important groundwater system that underlies parts of eight states and sustains one of the major agricultural areas of the United States. The area also provides critical nesting habitat for birds such as plovers and terns, and roosting habitat for cranes and other migratory birds that travel through the Central Flyway of North America. This broad area, containing fragile ecosystems that could be further threatened by changes in climate and land use, has been identified by the USGS and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln as a region where intensive collaborative research could lead to a better understanding of climate change and what might be done to adapt to or mitigate its adverse effects to ecosystems and to humans. The need for robust data on the geologic framework of ecosystems in the Greater Platte River Basin has been acknowledged in proceedings from the 2008 Climate Change Workshop and in draft reports by researchers developing a multidisciplinary science plan for the Greater Platte River Basin.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1984

Evaluation of the ground-water resources of coastal Georgia; preliminary report on the data available as of July 1983

A compilation of ground-water data that have been collected for nearly 100 years in the coastal area of Georgia as part of cooperative activities between the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies is presented in this report. The compilation of pertinent data indicates that information is available for use in the evaluation of the ground-water resources of the 13 counties of coastal Georgia. Included in this report is a fairly complete discussion of previous and ongoing investigations and monitoring networks, and an extensive list of references. Maps at 1:24,000, 1:100,000; and 1:1000,000 scales contain well locations and identifers for all wells in the Ground Water Site Inventory (GWSI) data base of the National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE). Tabular summaries of selected site information from GWSI, including well identifiers and names , latitude-longitude location, depth of well, altitude of land surface, and use of water are presented. Water-use data from the National Water Use Data System, and water use for irrigation from the University of Georgia, Department of Agriculture survey , are tabulated. Also included are pertinent information on geophysical surveys and data obtained, and proposed project activities, particularly test-monitor well drilling.

Georgia↗

USGS2006

Water use and availability in the West Narragansett Bay area, coastal Rhode Island, 1995-99

During the 1999 drought in Rhode Island, belowaverage precipitation caused a drop in ground-water levels and streamflow was below long-term averages. The low water levels prompted the U. S. Geological Survey and the Rhode Island Water Resources Board to conduct a series of cooperative water-use studies. The purpose of these studies is to collect and analyze water-use and water-availability data in each drainage area in the State of Rhode Island. The West Narragansett Bay study area, which covers 118 square miles in part or all of 14 towns in coastal Rhode Island, is one of nine areas investigated as part of this effort. The study area includes the western part of Narragansett Bay and Conanicut Island, which is the town of Jamestown. The area was divided into six subbasins for the assessment of water-use data. In the calculation of hydrologic budget and water availability, the Hunt, Annaquatucket, and Pettaquamscutt River Basins were combined into one subbasin because they are hydraulically connected. Eleven major water suppliers served customers in the study area, and they supplied an average of 19.301 million gallons per day during 1995–99. The withdrawals from the only minor supplier, which was in the town of East Greenwich in the Hunt River Basin, averaged 0.002 million gallons per day. The remaining withdrawals were estimated as 1.186 million gallons per day from self-supplied domestic, commercial, industrial, and agricultural users. Return flows from self-disposed water (individual sewage-disposal systems) and permitted discharges accounted for 5.623 million gallons per day. Most publicly disposed water (13.711 million gallons per day) was collected by the Rhode Island Economic Development Corporation, and by the East Greenwich, Fields Point, Jamestown, Narragansett, and Scarborough wastewater-treatment facilities. This wastewater was disposed in Narragansett Bay outside of the study area. The PART program, a computerized hydrograph-separation application, was used to determine water availability in the study area on the basis of low flows measured at a nearby index station, the Pawcatuck River at Wood River Junction, Rhode Island. Water availability was defined as the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles of the total base flow; the base flow minus the 7-day, 10-year flow; and the base flow minus the Aquatic Base Flow at the index station. The base-flow contributions per unit area of sand and gravel deposits and of till were computed for June, July, August, and September for the index station and multiplied by the areas of sand and gravel and till in the subbasins. The calculated base flows at the index station were lowest in August at the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles for total base flow and for two additional low-flow scenarios. Because water withdrawals and use are greater during June, July, August, and September than at other times of the year, water availability was compared to water withdrawals in the subbasins for these summer months. Ratios were calculated by dividing the summer withdrawals by the water availability at the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles, and these percentiles of the base flow minus the two low flows for each subbasin. The closer this ratio is to one, the closer the withdrawals are to the estimated water available. These ratios allow comparisons of the use of water to the available water from one subbasin to another. The ratios were highest in July for the 50th percentile of the estimated gross yield minus the Aquatic Base Flow. The ratios ranged from 0.01 in the Providence and Seekonk subbasin to 0.38 in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt subbasin for the 50th percentile of the gross yield minus the 7Q10 for August. A long-term (1941–2000) water budget was calculated for the study area to assess the basin inflows and outflows. The water withdrawals and return flows used in the budget were from 1995 through 1999. Inflow was assumed to equal outflow. The total water budget was 146.29 million gallons per day for the combined Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt subbasin, 48.71 million gallons per day for the Greenwich Bay subbasin, 238.98 million gallons per day for the Providence and Seekonk Rivers subbasin, and 21.32 million gallons per day for the Conanicut Island subbasin. The estimated inflows from precipitation, streamflow from upstream basins, and wastewater return flow for the entire study area were 59.3, 38.5, and 2.2 percent, respectively. The estimated outflows for the study area from evapotranspiration, streamflow, and water withdrawals were 24.9, 73.9, and 1.2 percent, respectively.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2001

Ammonia in ground water from the Mississippi River alluvium, Fort Madison, Iowa

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Fort Madison, conducted a study of the potential sources and possible processes that might produce ammonia in ground water from the Mississippi River alluvium near Fort Madison, Iowa. High ammonia concentrations of 3.0 to 6.4 milligrams per liter were detected in water produced from municipal well Fort Madison #4 from 1992 through 1996. Total organic carbon concentrations of about 5 milligrams per liter were also reported during the same time period. Water-level measurements from two municipal wells and one well at Iowa State Penitentiary were used to determine that the general direction of ground-water flow during the two days of sampling was from northeast to southwest toward wells Fort Madison #4 and Fort Madison #5. Continuous pumping of other nearby wells probably influenced the direction of ground-water flow on these days. Because of a till confining unit separating the Mississippi River and the alluvial aquifer, it is uncertain to what extent induced recharge occurs to the alluvial aquifer from the river. Water samples were collected from three municipal wells, two industrial wells, one watersupply well at the Iowa State Penitentiary, one domestic well, two creeks, and the Mississippi River. Tritium analytical results indicate that the time of recharge was after 1953 for water from the municipal wells (where tritium samples were collected). The ammonia concentration, 5.1 milligrams per liter, was considerably higher in ground water collected from well Fort Madison #4 compared to samples collected from other wells. The dissolved organic carbon concentration was also highest in ground water collected from well Fort Madison #4 (5.5 milligrams per liter) although samples from other wells were also relatively high, 2.6 to 5.3 milligrams per liter. The most likely process producing the high ammonia concentration in ground water in the vicinity of well Fort Madison #4 is decomposition of organic matter (ammonification). Nitrogen isotope values, when compared to nitrogen isotope values found in ground water in the vicinity of some of the other wells, indicate the possibility that a higher percentage of the ammonia found in ground water in the vicinity of well Fort Madison #4 may be from human and(or) other animal wastes. Higher concentrations of dissolved phosphorus, orthophosphate, and a higher chloride-to-sodium mole ratio found in ground water sampled from well Fort Madison #4 could be indicative of a sewage or septic source. Potential sources include existing or abandoned septic systems, leaking sanitary sewer lines, commercial or residential waste-disposal sites, and agricultural runoff upgradient from well Fort Madison #4, or possibly, bed sediments of the Mississippi River.

Iowa↗

USGS1984

Evaluation of the ground-water resources of coastal Georgia: preliminary report of the data available as of July 1983

A compilation of ground-water data that have been collected for nearly 100 years in the coastal area of Georgia is presented in this report. The compilation of pertinent data indicates what information is available for use in the evaluation of the ground-water resources of the 13 counties of coastal Georgia. Also included in this report is a fairly complete discussion of previous and ongoing investigations and monitoring networks, and an extensive list of references. Maps at 1:24,000 and 1:1,000,000 scales contain well locations and identifiers for all wells in the Ground Water Site Inventory (GWSI) data base of the National Water Data Storage and retrieval System (WATSTORE). Tabular summaries of selected site information from GWSI, including well identifiers and names, latitude-longitude location, depth of well, altitude of land surface, and use of water are presented. Water-use data from the National Water Use Data System, and water use for irrigation from the University of Georgia, Department of Agriculture survey, also are tabulated. Also included are pertinent information on geophysical surveys and data obtained, and proposed project activities, particularly test-monitor well drilling. The data in this report were collected and compiled as part of the cooperative activities between the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies.

Georgia↗

USGS2003

Sedimentation rates in the marshes of Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge

Impoundments located within river systems in the Northern Great Plains are vulnerable to sediment inputs because intensive agriculture in watersheds has increased soil erosion and sediments in rivers. At the request of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), we evaluated the vertical accretion of sediment in the Mud Lake impoundment of Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Brown County, South Dakota. The Mud Lake impoundment was created in 1936 by constructing a low-head dam across the James River. We collected sediment cores from the Mud Lake impoundment during August 2000 for determination of vertical accretion rates. Accretion rates were estimated using cesium-13 7 and lead-210 isotopic dating techniques to estimate sediment accretion over the past 100 years. Accretion rates were greatest near the dam (1.3 cm yr-1) with less accretion (0.2 cm yr-1) occurring in the upper reaches of Mud Lake. As expected, accretion was highest near the dam where water velocities and greater water depth facilitates sediment deposition. Higher rates of sedimentation (accretion> 2.0 cm year-1) occurred during the 1990s when river flows were especially high. Since 1959, sediment accretion has reduced maximum pool depth of Mud Lake near the dam by 55 cm. Assuming that sediment accretion rates remain the same in the future, we project Mud Lake will have a maximum pool depth of 77 and 51 cm by 2020 and 2040, respectively. Over this same time frame, water depths in the upper reaches of Mud Lake would be reduced to< 2 cm. Projected future loss of water depth will severely limit the ability of managers to manipulate pool levels in Mud Lake to cycle vegetation and create interspersion of cover and water to meet current wildlife habitat management objectives. As predicted for major dams constructed on rivers throughout the world, Mud Lake will have a finite life span. Our data suggests that the functional life span of Mud Lake since construction will be < 100 years. We anticipate that over the next 20 years, sediments entering Mud Lake will reduce water depths to the point that current wildlife management objectives cannot be achieved through customary water-level manipulations. Sedimentation impacts are not unique to the Sand Lake NWR. It is widely accepted that impoundments trap sediments and shallow impoundments, such as those managed by the FWS, are especially vulnerable. Given the ecological impacts associated with loss of water depths, we recommend that managers begin evaluating the long-term wildlife management goals for the refuge relative to associated costs and feasibility of options available to enhance and maximize the life span of existing impoundments, including upper watershed management.

Report↗

USGS2015

Groundwater availability of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

The Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS) covers about 44,000 square miles of southeastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and western Idaho. The area supports a $6-billion per year agricultural industry, leading the Nation in production of apples, hops, and eight other commodities. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions supply water to croplands that account for about 5 percent of the Nation’s irrigated lands. Groundwater also is the primary source of drinking water for the more than 1.3 million people in the study area. Increasing competitive demands for water for municipal, fisheries/ecosystems, agricultural, domestic, hydropower, and recreational uses must be met by additional groundwater withdrawals and (or) by changes in the way water resources are allocated and used throughout the hydrologic system. As of 2014, most surface-water resources in the study area were either over allocated or fully appropriated, especially during the dry summer season. In response to continued competition for water, numerous water-management activities and concerns have gained prominence: water conservation, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, pumpage effects on streamflow, and effects of climate variability and change. An integrated understanding of the hydrologic system is important in order to implement effective water-resource management strategies that address these concerns. To provide information to stakeholders involved in water-management activities, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Resources Program assessed the groundwater availability as part of a national study of regional systems (U.S. Geological Survey, 2008). The CPRAS assessment includes: The present status of groundwater resources, How these resources have changed over time, and Development and application of tools to estimate system responses to stresses from future uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, especially the USGS Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer-System Analysis study (CP-RASA). A major product of this new assessment is a numerical groundwater-flow model of the system. The model was used to estimate water-budget components of the hydrogeologic units composing the groundwater system, and to evaluate groundwater availability under existing land- and water-use conditions and a possible future climate scenario representing an increase in pumpage demand due to a warming climate. Information from this study also allowed for analysis of: The CPRAS for predevelopment times (pre-1920), Variations from 1920 through 2007, Conditions during 1985–2007 (referred to as “existing conditions”), and Changes in the system from predevelopment times. The model also is a useful tool for investigating water supply, water demand, management strategies, groundwater-surface water exchanges, and potential effects of changing climate on the hydrologic system.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2008

Simulations of ground-water flow and particle pathline analysis in the zone of contribution of a public-supply well in Modesto, eastern San Joaquin Valley, California

Shallow ground water in the eastern San Joaquin Valley is affected by high nitrate and uranium concentrations and frequent detections of pesticides and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as a result of ground-water development and intensive agricultural and urban land use. A single public-supply well was selected for intensive study to evaluate the dominant processes affecting the vulnerability of public-supply wells in the Modesto area. A network of 23 monitoring wells was installed, and water and sediment samples were collected within the approximate zone of contribution of the public-supply well, to support a detailed analysis of physical and chemical conditions and processes affecting the water chemistry in the well. A three-dimensional, steady-state local ground-water-flow and transport model was developed to evaluate the age of ground water reaching the well and to evaluate the vulnerability of the well to nonpoint source input of nitrate and uranium. Particle tracking was used to compute pathlines and advective travel times in the ground-water flow model. The simulated ages of particles reaching the public-supply well ranged from 9 to 30,000 years, with a median of 54 years. The age of the ground water contributed to the public-supply well increased with depth below the water table. Measured nitrate concentrations, derived primarily from agricultural fertilizer, were highest (17 milligrams per liter) in shallow ground water and decreased with depth to background concentrations of less than 2 milligrams per liter in the deepest wells. Because the movement of water is predominantly downward as a result of ground-water development, and because geochemical conditions are generally oxic, high nitrate concentrations in shallow ground water are expected to continue moving downward without significant attenuation. Simulated long-term nitrate concentrations indicate that concentrations have peaked and will decrease in the public-supply well during the next 100 years because of the low nitrate concentrations in recharge beneath the urban area and the increasing proportion of urban-derived ground water reaching the well. The apparent lag time between peak input concentrations and peak concentrations in the well is about 20 to 30 years. Measured uranium concentrations were also highest (45 micrograms per liter) in shallow ground water, and decreased with depth to background concentrations of about 0.5 microgram per liter. Naturally-occurring uranium adsorbed to aquifer sediments is mobilized by oxygen-rich, high-alkalinity water. Alkalinity increased in shallow ground water in response to agricultural development. As ground-water pumping increased in the 1940s and 1950s, this alkaline water moved downward through the ground-water flow system, mobilizing the uranium adsorbed to aquifer sediments. Ground water with high alkalinity and high uranium concentrations is expected to continue to move deeper in the system, resulting in increased uranium concentrations with depth in ground water. Because alkalinity (and correspondingly uranium) concentrations were high in shallow ground water beneath both the urban and the agricultural land, long-term uranium concentrations in the public-supply well are expected to increase as the proportion of uranium-affected water contributed to the well increases. Assuming that the alkalinity near the water table remains the same, the simulation of long-term alkalinity in the public-supply well indicates that uranium concentrations in the public-supply well will likely approach the maximum contaminant level; however, the time to reach this level is more than 100 years because of the significant proportion of old, unaffected water at depth that is contributed to the public-supply well.

California↗

USGS1983

Geohydrology and model analysis of the stream-aquifer system along the Arkansas River in Kearny and Finney counties, southwestern Kansas

A study was made, in cooperation with the Division of Water Resources, Kansas State Board of Agriculture, to determine geohydrologic conditions in an area comprising nearly 850,000 acres along the Arkansas River valley in Kearny and Finney Counties, southwestern Kansas. The Arkansas River meanders atop and interacts hydraulically with the area's multilayered, unconsolidated aquifer system. Declines in static water levels in wells in the heavily pumped lower aquifer ranged from 20 to 80 feet during 1974-80. The river is dry in much of the area. A digital computer model was calibrated to simulate the trends of historic water levels. Simulated 1974-80 conditions depicted an average annual recharge to the unconsolidated aquifer system of 66,900 acre-feet from precipitation and 36,200 acre-feet from river and canal seepage and boundary inflow. Simulated average annual discharge consisted of 634,800 acre-feet from pumpage and boundary outflow. Simulated average annual recharge to the unconsolidated aquifer system was 531,700 acre-feet less than average annual discharge, indicating the ground-water resource is currently (1982) being mined in the study area. Simulation also indicated that there would be sufficient saturated thickness in 2005 for irrigation if 1980 hydrologic conditions continued. Seepage losses from the Arkansas River and irrigation canals are a major source of recharge to the unconsolidated aquifer system. Therefore, the amount of flow in the Arkansas River would be important in determining the rate of future water-level declines in the study area. Streamflow seepage losses could be decreased by (1) decreasing the number of wells pumping in the study area in order to reduce downward leakage from the valley aquifer, or (2) increasing streamflow discharge in order to recharge the valley aquifer. The rate and direction of flow between the river and the valley aquifer depend on the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed and the hydraulic gradient between the river stage and the water table. As long as river stage remains high, the water table in the valley aquifer continues to rise. Seepage from the river to the valley aquifer decreases as the altitude difference between the river stage and the valley aquifer decreases, becoming insignificant when the water level in the valley aquifer nearly equals river stage. However, a rise in the water table in the valley aquifer because of recharge from the river will correspond to increased downward leakage to the lower aquifer, impeding recharge to the valley aquifer.

Kansas↗

USGS1985

Geohydrology and model analysis of stream-aquifer system along the Arkansas River in Kearny and Finney Counties, southwestern Kansas

Kansas↗

USGS2007

Eutrophication study at the Panjiakou-Daheiting Reservoir system, northern Hebei Province, People's Republic of China: Chlorophyll-a model and sources of phosphorus and nitrogen

Concentrations, loads, and sources of nitrate and total phosphorus were investigated at the Panjiakou and Daheiting Reservoir system in northern Hebei Province, People's Republic of China. The Luan He River is the primary source of water to these reservoirs, and the upstream watershed has a mix of land uses including agriculture, forest, and one large urban center. The reservoirs have a primary use for storage of drinking water and partially supply Tianjin City with its annual needs. Secondary uses include flood control and aqua culture (fish cages). The response of the reservoir system from phosphorus input, with respect to chlorophyll- a production from algae, was fitted to a model of normalized phosphorus loading that regresses the average summer-time chlorophyll- a concentration to the average annual phosphorus concentration of the reservoir. Comparison of the normalized phosphorus loading and chlorophyll- a response of this system to other reservoirs throughout the world indicate a level of eutrophication that will require up to an approximate 5–10-fold decrease in annual phosphorus load to bring the system to a more acceptable level of algal productivity. Isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen in dissolved nitrate were measured from the headwater streams and at various locations along the major rivers that provide the majority of water to these reservoirs. Those isotopic measurements indicate that the sources of nitrate change from natural background in the rivers to animal manure and septic waste upstream of the reservoir. Although the isotopic measurements suggest that animal and septic wastes are a primary source of nutrients, measurements of the molar ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus are more indicative of row-cropping practices. Options for reduction of nutrient loads include changing the management practices of the aqua culture, installation of new sewage treatment systems in the large urbanized area of the upper watershed, and agricultural management practices that would reduce the loading of nutrients and soil erosion from that land use.

Agricultural Water Management↗

USGS2014

Hydrologic models and analysis of water availability in Cuyama Valley, California

Changes in population, agricultural development practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in the Cuyama Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in Santa Barbara County. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that could be considered in the evaluation of the sustainable water supply. The Cuyama Valley Hydrologic Model (CUVHM) was designed to simulate the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including components dependent on variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help to improve planning for future conditions. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a precipitation-runoff model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM). The hydrologic models were calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use and, then, used to assess the use and movement of water throughout the Valley. These tools provide a means to understand the evolution of water use in the Valley, its availability, and the limits of sustainability. The conceptual model identified inflows and outflows that include the movement and use of water in both natural and anthropogenic systems. The groundwater flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence that—in combination with the effects of groundwater pumping, natural recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface—displays vertical hydraulic-head gradients. Overall, most of the agricultural demand for water in the Cuyama Valley in the initial part of the growing season is supplied by groundwater, which is augmented by precipitation during wet winter and spring seasons. In addition, the amount of groundwater used for irrigation varies from year to year in response to climate variation and can increase dramatically in dry years. Model simulation results, however, also indicated that irrigation may have been less efficient during wet years. Agricultural pumpage is a major component to simulated outflow that is often poorly recorded. Therefore, an integrated, coupled farm-process model is used to estimate historical pumpage for water-balance subregions that evolved with the development of groundwater in the Valley from 1949 through 2010. The integrated hydrologic model includes these water-balance subregions and delineates natural, municipal, and agricultural land use; streamflow networks; and groundwater flow systems. The redefinition of the geohydrologic framework (including the internal architecture of the sedimentary units) and incorporation of these units into the simulation of the regional groundwater flow system indicated that faults have compartmentalized the alluvial deposits into subregions, which have responded differently to regional groundwater flow, locations of recharge, and the effects of development. The Cuyama Valley comprises nine subregions grouped into three regional zones, the Main, Ventucopa Uplands, and Sierra Madre Foothills, which are fault bounded, represent different proportions of the three alluvial aquifers, and have different water quality. The CUVHM uses MF-OWHM to simulate and assess the use and movement of water, including the evolution of land use and related water-balance regions. The model is capable of being accurate at annual to interannual time frames and at subregional to valley-wide spatial scales, which allows for analysis of the groundwater hydrologic budget for the water years 1950–2010, as well as potential assessment of the sustainable use of groundwater. Simulated changes in storage over time showed that significant withdrawals from storage generally occurred not only during drought years (1976–77 and 1988–92) but also during the early stages of industrial agriculture, which was initially dominated by alfalfa production. Since the 1990s, agriculture has shifted to more water-intensive crops. Measured and simulated groundwater levels indicated substantial declines in selected subregions, mining of groundwater that is thousands to tens of thousands of years old, increased groundwater storage depletion, and land subsidence. Most of the recharge occurs in the upland regions of Ventucopa and Sierra Madre Foothills, and the largest fractions of pumpage and storage depletion occur in the Main subregion. The long-term imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in simulated overdraft (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin over the 61-year period of 1949–2010. Changes in storage varied considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatically driven factors can greatly affect inflows, outflows, and water use by more than a factor of two between wet and dry years. Although precipitation during inter-decadal wet years previously replenished the basin, the water use and storage depletion have lessened the effects of these major recharge events. Simulated and measured water-level altitudes indicated the presence of large areas where depressed water levels have resulted in large desaturated zones in the younger and Older Alluvium layers in the Main-zone subregions. The results of modeled projection of the base-case scenario 61 years into the future indicated that current supply-and-demand are unsustainable and will result in additional groundwater-level declines and related storage depletion and land subsidence. The reduced-supply and reduced-demand projections reduced groundwater storage depletion but may not allow for sustainable agriculture under current demands, agricultural practices, and land use.

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USGS2016

Design and testing of a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system for predicting concentrations of agrichemicals in groundwater across the United States

Efforts to assess the likelihood of groundwater contamination from surface-derived compounds have spanned more than three decades. Relatively few of these assessments, however, have involved the use of process-based simulations of contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface, or compared the predictions from such models with measured data—especially over regional to national scales. To address this need, a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system was constructed to use transport-and-fate simulations to predict the concentration of any surface-derived compound at a specified depth in the vadose zone anywhere in the conterminous United States. The system was then used to simulate the concentrations of selected agrichemicals in the vadose zone beneath agricultural areas in multiple locations across the conterminous United States. The simulated concentrations were compared with measured concentrations of the compounds detected in shallow groundwater (that is, groundwater drawn from within a depth of 6.3 ± 0.5 meters [mean ± 95 percent confidence interval] below the water table) in more than 1,400 locations across the United States. The results from these comparisons were used to select the simulation approaches that led to the closest agreement between the simulated and the measured concentrations. The P-GWAVA system uses computer simulations that account for a broader range of the hydrologic, physical, biological and chemical phenomena known to control the transport and fate of solutes in the subsurface than has been accounted for by any other vulnerability assessment over regional to national scales. Such phenomena include preferential transport and the influences of temperature, soil properties, and depth on the partitioning, transport, and transformation of pesticides in the subsurface. Published methods and detailed soil property data are used to estimate a wide range of model input parameters for each site, including surface albedo, surface crust permeability, soil water content, Brooks-Corey parameters, saturated hydraulic conductivity, macroporosity and sizes of microbial populations, as well as solute partition coefficients, reaction rates, and meso-micropore diffusion rates. To ensure geographic consistency among the predictions, the only site-specific input data that are used are those that are available for all of the 48 conterminous states.

Scientific Investigations Report↗