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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

Hydrodynamic implications of textural trends in sand deposits of the 2004 tsunami in Sri Lanka

Field observations and sediment samples at a coastal-plain setting in southeastern Sri Lanka were used to document the erosional and depositional impacts of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and to interpret the hydrodynamic processes that produced an extensive sand-sheet deposit. Tsunami deposit thicknesses ranged from 6 to 22??cm with thickness being controlled partly by antecedent topography. The deposit was composed of coarse to medium sand organized into plane-parallel laminae and a few laminasets. Vertical textural trends showed an overall but non-systematic upward fining and upward thinning of depositional units with an upward increase in heavy-mineral laminations at some locations. Repeated patterns in the vertical textural trends (upward fining, upward coarsening, uniform) were used to subdivide and correlate the deposit into five hydro-textural stratigraphic units. The depositional units were linked to hydrodynamic processes and upcurrent conditions, such as rates of sediment supply and composition of the sediment sources. Vertical changes in grain-size distributions recorded the depositional phases associated with flow acceleration, initial unsteady pulsating flow, relatively stable and uniform flow, flow deceleration, slack water, and return flow or flow redirection. Study results suggest that vertical textural trends from multiple cross-shore sections can be used to interpret complex tsunami flow histories, but at the location examined, interpretation of the lateral textural trends did not provide a basis for identifying the correct sediment transport pathways because flow near the landward boundary was multidirectional.

Sedimentary Geology

Decadal trends and occurrence of geogenic constituents and mixtures in groundwater across the continental United States

Worldwide, about 50% of the population is served by groundwater-sourced drinking water. Numerous groundwater quality assessments have found that geogenic constituents are among the most common contaminants in drinking-water aquifers. Documenting changing groundwater quality is a crucial aspect of water availability assessments. We assess trends and occurrence of geogenic constituent concentrations in groundwater across the continental United States using 3 decades of data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Network. Thousands of groundwater wells were grouped into agricultural, urban, or domestic supply network types. Although most networks and constituents had no statistically significant change in concentration, many had increasing concentration trends, elevated concentrations, or both. Lithium, sodium, radium, sulfate, and uranium had increasing trends in more than 10% of the study networks. Urban and domestic well networks had increasing lithium and sodium trends more often than agricultural networks. Manganese most commonly increased in domestic well networks; uranium more commonly increased in agricultural and urban networks. Elevated concentration mixtures were widespread, and mixture complexities appeared to increase over time. Our results indicate that more than 2.3 million domestic-well users may be affected by elevated concentrations of one or more geogenic constituents.

continental United States

Beyond simple trend tests: Detecting significant changes in design-flood quantiles

Changes in annual maximum flood (AMF), which are usually detected using simple trend tests (e.g., Mann-Kendall test (MKT)), are expected to change design-flood estimates. We propose an alternate framework to detect significant changes in design-flood between two periods and evaluate it for synthetically generated AMF from the Log-Pearson Type-3 (LP3) distribution due to changes in moments associated with flood distribution. Synthetic experiments show MKT does not consider changes in all three moments of the LP3 distribution and incorrectly detects changes in design-flood. We applied the framework on 31 river basins spread across the United States. Statistically significant changes in design-flood quantiles were observed even without a significant trend in AMF and basins with statistically significant trend did not necessarily exhibit statistically significant changes in design-flood. We recommend application of the framework for evaluating changes in design-flood estimates considering changes in all the moments as opposed to simple trend tests.

Geophysical Research Letters

Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

Water Resources Research

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere ('acid rain') have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Nature

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era ( CE ) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE , the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Nature Geoscience

Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States.

Environmental Research Letters

Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

The Yellow-billed Loon ( Gavia adamsii ) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986–2003 and 1992–2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of−0.9% (95% CI of−3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206–3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910–4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

Alaska

Accounting for seasonal patterns in bird availability prevents biased population trend estimates with advancing spring phenology

Advancing spring phenology has been observed around the world, including changes in the timing of breeding of birds. When singing rates are tied to breeding stage, the rate at which birds are available for detection by surveyors can also show seasonal patterns that may shift with spring phenology. As the timing of peak bird availability changes over years, monitoring programs that do not account for changing availability could incorrectly conclude that there is a change in population size. We used a 20-yr point-count dataset to test for relationships between bird availability and spring vegetation phenology for 27 species in boreal Alaska. Nine of 22 migratory species showed a significant effect of day of spring (DOS) on availability, usually with availability declining over the survey window (late spring and early summer). In contrast, 3 of 5 resident species showed availability increasing over the survey window. We then conducted a simulation study to evaluate how changing spring phenology could affect estimates of population trend under a static survey window. We found that including DOS in the model as a covariate of availability prevented bias in the trend estimates and did not reduce precision. However, when the model ignored the effect of DOS on availability, population trend estimates were often significantly biased when spring phenology was advancing. Our study adds to previous evidence that bird availability is often related to spring phenology, and demonstrates that failing to account for seasonal changes in availability could result in the spurious estimation of a population trend when spring phenology changes over time. In some cases, the bias could be large enough to change species status assessments under IUCN Red List Criteria. Monitoring programs for birds and other taxa with seasonally varying availability could avoid bias by simply measuring and modeling the relationship between DOS and availability.

Alaska

The role of water in generating the calc-alkaline trend: New volatile data for aleutian magmas and a new tholeiitic index

The origin of tholeiitic (TH) versus calc-alkaline (CA) magmatic trends has long been debated. Part of the problem stems from the lack of a quantitative measure for the way in which a magma evolves. Recognizing that the salient feature in many TH–CA discrimination diagrams is enrichment in Fe during magma evolution, we have developed a quantitative index of Fe enrichment, the Tholeiitic Index (THI): THI = Fe 4 ·0 /Fe 8 ·0 , where Fe 4 ·0 is the average FeO* concentration of samples with 4 ± 1 wt % MgO, and Fe 8 ·0 is the average FeO* at 8 ± 1 wt % MgO. Magmas with THI > 1 have enriched in FeO* during differentiation from basalts to andesites and are tholeiitic; magmas with THI < 1 are calc-alkaline. Most subduction zone volcanism is CA, but to varying extents; the THI expresses the continuum of Fe enrichment observed in magmatic suites in all tectonic settings. To test various controls on the development of CA trends, we present new magmatic water measurements in melt inclusions from eight volcanoes from the Aleutian volcanic arc (Augustine, Emmons, Shishaldin, Akutan, Unalaska, Okmok, Seguam, and Korovin). Least degassed H 2 O contents vary from ∼2 wt % (Shishaldin) to >7 wt % (Augustine), spanning the global range in arc mafic magmas. Within the Aleutian data, H 2 O correlates negatively with THI, from strongly calc-alkaline (Augustine, THI = 0·65) to moderately tholeiitic (Shishaldin, THI = 1·16). The relationship between THI and magmatic water is maintained when data are included from additional arc volcanoes, back-arc basins, ocean islands, and mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs), supporting a dominant role of magmatic water in generating CA trends. An effective break between TH and CA trends occurs at ∼2 wt % H 2 O. Both pMELTs calculations and laboratory experiments demonstrate that the observed co-variation of H 2 O and THI in arcs can be generated by the effect of H 2 O on the suppression of plagioclase and the relative enhancement of Fe-oxides on the liquid line of descent. The full THI–H 2 O array requires an increase in fO 2 with H 2 O, from ≤FMQ (where FMQ is the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer) in MORB to ∼ΔFMQ +0·5 to +2 in arcs, consistent with inferences from measured Fe and S species in glasses and melt inclusions. A curve fit to the data, H 2 O (wt % ± 1·2) = exp[(1·26 – THI)/0·32], may provide a useful tool for estimating the H 2 O content of magmas that are inaccessible to melt inclusion study.

Journal of Petrology

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:

Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate—all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in 2913 lakes using nutrient and chlorophyll (Chl) observations from the Lake Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of the Northeast U.S. (LAGOS-NE), a collection of preexisting lake data mostly from state agencies. LAGOS-NE was used to quantify whether lake water quality has changed from 1990 to 2013, and whether lake-specific or regional geophysical factors were related to the observed changes. We modeled change through time using hierarchical linear models for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), stoichiometry (TN:TP), and Chl. Both the slopes (percent change per year) and intercepts (value in 1990) were allowed to vary by lake and region. Across all lakes, TN declined at a rate of 1.1% year −1 , while TP, TN:TP, and Chl did not change. A minority (7%–16%) of individual lakes had changing nutrients, stoichiometry, or Chl. Of those lakes that changed, we found differences in the geospatial variables that were most related to the observed change in the response variables. For example, TN and TN:TP trends were related to region-level drivers associated with atmospheric deposition of N; TP trends were related to both lake and region-level drivers associated with climate and land use; and Chl trends were found in regions with high air temperature at the beginning of the study period. We conclude that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved.

Global Change Biology

Detectability of step trends in the rate of atmospheric deposition of sulfate

A method is presented to assist policy makers in determining the combination of number of sampling stations and number of years of sampling necessary to state with a given probability that a step reduction in atmospheric deposition rates of a given magnitude has occurred at a pre-specified time. This pre-specified time would typically be the time at which a sulfate emission control program took effect, and the given magnitude of reduction is some percentage change in deposition rate one might expect to occur as a result of the emission control. In order to determine this probability of detection, a stochastic model of sulfate deposition rates is developed, based on New York State bulk collection network data. The model considers the effect of variation in precipitation, seasonal variations, serial correlation, and site-to-site (cross) correlation. A nonparametric statistical test which is well suited to detection of step changes in such multi-site data sets is developed. It is related to the Mann-Whitney Rank-Sum test. The test is used in Monte Carlo simulations along with the stochastic model to derive statistical power functions. These power functions describe the probability of detecting (α=0.05) a step trend in deposition rate as a function of the size of the step-trend, record length before and after the step-trend, and the number of stations sampled. The results show that, for an area the size of New York State, very little power is gained by increasing the number of stations beyond about eight. The results allow policy makers to determine the tradeoff between the cost of monitoring and time required to detect a step-trend of a given magnitude with a given probability.

New York

Carbon isotope trends across a century of herbarium specimens suggest CO2 fertilization of C4 grasses.

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 is changing the dynamics of tropical savanna vegetation. C 3 trees and grasses are known to experience CO 2 fertilization, whereas responses to CO 2 by C 4 grasses are more ambiguous. Here, we sample stable carbon isotope trends in herbarium collections of South African C 4 and C 3 grasses to reconstruct 13 C discrimination. We found that C 3 grasses showed no trends in 13 C discrimination over the past century but that C 4 grasses increased their 13 C discrimination through time, especially since 1950. These changes were most strongly linked to changes in atmospheric CO 2 rather than to trends in rainfall climatology or temperature. Combined with previously published evidence that grass biomass has increased in C 4 -dominated savannas, these trends suggest that increasing water-use efficiency due to CO 2 fertilization may be changing C 4 plant–water relations. CO 2 fertilization of C 4 grasses may thus be a neglected pathway for anthropogenic global change in tropical savanna ecosystems.

New Phytologist

State-space analysis of power to detect regional brook trout population trends over time

Threats to aquatic biodiversity are expressed at broad spatial scales, but identifying regional trends in abundance is challenging owing to variable sampling designs, and temporal and spatial variation in abundance. We compiled a regional dataset of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis counts across their southern range representing 326 sites from eight states between 1982-2014, and conducted a statistical power analysis using Bayesian state-space models to evaluate the ability to detect temporal trends by characterizing posterior distributions with three approaches. A combination of monitoring periods, number of sites and electrofishing passes, decline magnitude and different revisit patterns were tested. Power increased with monitoring periods and decline magnitude. Trends in adults were better detected than young-of-the-year fish, which showed greater inter-annual variation in abundance. The addition of weather covariates to account for the temporal variation increased power only slightly. Single- and three-pass electrofishing methods were similar in power. Finally, power was higher for sampling designs with more frequent revisits over the duration of the monitoring program. Our results provide guidance for broad-scale monitoring designs for temporal trend detection.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin

Population trends of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai'i

The Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge was established to protect native Hawaiian forest birds, particularly endangered species. Management for forest restoration on the refuge has consisted mainly of removing feral ungulates, controlling invasive alien plants, and reforesting former pastures. To assess effects of this habitat improvement for forest birds, we estimated density annually by distance sampling and examined population trends for native and alien passerines over the 21 years since the refuge was established. We examined long-term trends and recent short-term trajectories in three study areas: (1) reforested pastureland, (2) heavily grazed open forest that was recovering, and (3) lightly grazed closed forest that was relatively intact. Three species of native birds and two species of alien birds had colonized the reforested pasture and were increasing. In the open forest, densities of all eight native species were either stable or increasing. Long-term trends for alien birds were also generally stable or increasing. Worryingly, however, during the most recent 9 years, in the open forest trajectories of native species were decreasing or inconclusive, but in the reforested pasture they generally increased. The closed forest was surveyed in only the most recent 9 years, and trajectories of native species there were mixed. Overall, long-term population trends in Hakalau are stable or increasing, contrasting with declines in most other areas of Hawai'i over the same period. However, more recent mixed results may indicate emergent problems for this important bird area.

Hawai'i