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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Magnetic storms and geoelectric hazards

Magnetic storms induce geoelectric fields at Earth's surface that can interfere with grounded long-line systems. The September 1859 storm disrupted global telegraph operations, the March 1989 storm caused a blackout in Canada and interfered with electric-power-transmission systems in the United States, and other storms have had related impacts. The geographic and temporal dependence of geoelectric fields are functions of both geomagnetic variation and local surface impedance, which differ considerably across different geological regions. These dependencies can be mapped across the contiguous United States by combining magnetotelluric impedance tensors with ground magnetometer time series. This review illustrates such mapping for the 1989 storm and shows that power-system interference was experienced where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric fields were intense. Statistical analyses indicate that storms comparable to that of March 1989 occur roughly once every four solar cycles. Ongoing developments in numerical modeling and real-time monitoring are anticipated to enable prediction of geoelectric hazards. ▪ Magnetic storms can induced electric fields in the solid Earth that interfere with electric-power-transmission systems. ▪ Geoelectric hazards depend on the storm-time geomagnetic disturbance and the electrical conductivity structure of Earth. ▪ Historically, impacts on telecommunication and power-transmission systems in the United States have been concentrated in the East and Midwest. ▪ The future occurrence of a magnetic superstorm could cause widespread disruption of electric-power-transmission systems.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

USGS2016

ChemCam activities and discoveries during the nominal mission of the Mars Science Laboratory in Gale crater, Mars

At Gale crater, Mars, ChemCam acquired its first laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) target on Sol 13 of the landed portion of the mission (a Sol is a Mars day). Up to Sol 800, more than 188 000 LIBS spectra were acquired on more than 5800 points distributed over about 650 individual targets. We present a comprehensive review of ChemCam scientific accomplishments during that period, together with a focus on the lessons learned from the first use of LIBS in space. For data processing, we describe new tools that had to be developed to account for the uniqueness of Mars data. With regard to chemistry, we present a summary of the composition range measured on Mars for major-element oxides (SiO 2 , TiO 2 , Al 2 O 3 , FeO T , MgO, CaO, Na 2 O, K 2 O) based on various multivariate models, with associated precisions. ChemCam also observed H, and the non-metallic elements C, O, P, and S, which are usually difficult to quantify with LIBS. F and Cl are observed through their molecular lines. We discuss the most relevant LIBS lines for detection of minor and trace elements (Li, Rb, Sr, Ba, Cr, Mn, Ni, and Zn). These results were obtained thanks to comprehensive ground reference datasets, which are set to mimic the expected mineralogy and chemistry on Mars. With regard to the first use of LIBS in space, we analyze and quantify, often for the first time, each of the advantages of using stand-off LIBS in space: no sample preparation, analysis within its petrological context, dust removal, sub-millimeter scale investigation, multi-point analysis, the ability to carry out statistical surveys and whole-rock analyses, and rapid data acquisition. We conclude with a discussion of ChemCam performance to survey the geochemistry of Mars, and its valuable support of decisions about selecting where and whether to make observations with more time and resource-intensive tools in the rover's instrument suite. In the end, we present a bird's-eye view of the many scientific results: discovery of felsic Noachian crust, first observation of hydrated soil, discovery of manganese-rich coatings and fracture fills indicating strong oxidation potential in Mars' early atmosphere, characterization of soils by grain size, and wide scale mapping of sedimentary strata, conglomerates, and diagenetic materials.

Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry↗

USGS2022

Phenological variation in spring migration timing of adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in coastal Massachusetts

The timing of biological events in plants and animals, such as migration and reproduction, is shifting due to climate change. Anadromous fishes are particularly susceptible to these shifts as they are subject to strong seasonal cycles when transitioning between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn. We used linear models to determine the extent of phenological shifts in adult Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus as they migrated from ocean to freshwater environments during spring to spawn at 12 sites along the northeastern USA. We also evaluated broadscale oceanic and atmospheric drivers that trigger their movements from offshore to inland habitats, including sea surface temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation index, and Gulf Stream index. Run timing metrics of initiation, median (an indicator of peak run timing), end, and duration were found to vary among sites. Although most sites showed negligible shifts towards earlier timing, statistically significant changes were detected in three systems. Overall, winter sea surface temperature, spring and fall transition dates, and annual run size were the strongest predictors of run initiation and median dates, while a combination of within-season and seasonal-lag effects influenced run end and duration timing. Disparate results observed across the 12 spawning runs suggest that regional environmental processes were not consistent drivers of phenology and local environmental and ecological conditions may be more important. Additional years of data to extend time series and monitoring of Alewife timing and movements in nearshore habitats may provide important information about staging behaviors just before adults transition between ocean and freshwater habitats.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2007

Spatial distribution of juvenile and adult female Tanner crabs (Chionoecetes bairdi) in a glacial fjord ecosystem: Implications for recruitment processes

A systematic pot survey in Glacier Bay, Alaska, was conducted to characterize the spatial distribution of juvenile and adult female Tanner crabs, and their association with depth and temperature. The information was used to infer important recruitment processes for Tanner crabs in glaciated ecosystems. High-catch areas for juvenile and adult female Tanner crabs were identified using local autocorrelation statistics. Spatial segregation by size class corresponded to features in the glacial landscape: high-catch areas for juveniles were located at the distal ends of two narrow glacial fjords, and high-catch areas for adults were located in the open waters of the central Bay. Juvenile female Tanner crabs were found at nearly all sampled depths (15–439 m) and temperatures (4–8°C), but the biggest catches were at depths <150 m where adults were scarce. Because adults may prey on or compete with juveniles, the distribution of juveniles could be influenced by the distribution of adults. Areas where adults or predators are scarce, such as glacially influenced fjords, could serve as refuges for juvenile Tanner crabs.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2006

Abundance of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ) in the fjords of Spitsbergen, Svalbard, during the peak molting period

Ringed seal ( Pusa hispida ) abundance in Spitsbergen, Svalbard, was estimated during the peak molting period via aerial, digital photographic surveys. A total of 9,145 images, covering 41.7%–100% of the total fast-ice cover (1,496 km 2 ) of 18 different fjords and bays, were inspected for the presence of ringed seals. A total of 1,708 seals were counted, and when accounting for ice areas that were not covered by images, a total of 3,254 (95% CI: 3,071–3,449) ringed seals were estimated to be hauled out during the surveys. Extensive behavioral data from radio-tagged ringed seals (collected in a companion study) from one of the highest density fjords during the molting period were used to create a model that predicts the proportion of seals hauled out on any given date, time of day, and under various meteorological conditions. Applying this model to the count data from each fjord, we estimated that a total of 7,585 (95% CI: 6,332–9,085) ringed seals were present in the surveyed area during the peak molting period. Data on interannual variability in ringed seal abundance suggested higher numbers of seals in Van Keulenfjorden in 2002 compared to 2003, while other fjords with very stable ice cover showed no statistical differences. Poor ice conditions in general in 2002 probably resulted in seals from a wide area coming to Van Keulenfjorden (a large fjord with stable ice in 2002). The total estimated number of ringed seals present in the study area at the time of the survey must be regarded as a population index, or at least a minimum estimate for the area, because it does not account for individuals leaving and arriving, which might account for a considerable number of animals. The same situation is likely the case for many other studies reporting aerial census data for ringed seals. To achieve accurate estimates of population sizes from aerial surveys, more extensive knowledge of ringed seal behavior will be required.

Marine Mammal Science↗

USGS2026

The damability function: A probabilistic approach to regional landslide dam susceptibility analysis applied to the Oregon Coast Range, USA

Landslides can dam rivers and require rapid response to mitigate catastrophic outburst floods. Here, we present a workflow to map landslide dam formation susceptibility at a regional scale. We define a probabilistic function that combines river valley width and landslide volume to efficiently determine the likelihood of a landslide dam or “damability”. We combine damability values with landslide susceptibility to estimate landslide dam susceptibility. The valley width measurements are automated using a new elevation threshold-based algorithm. Landslide volume is represented as a statistical distribution from mapped landslides. We validate and apply our approach to the Oregon Coast Range, USA and find that 36 % of river stretches exceed a dam potential threshold; these are in river headwaters and steeper terrain, which in this case correlate with more resistant lithologies. We also estimate volumes of the potential dammed lakes and find that most rivers with high dam susceptibility are less likely to impound large lakes because they have low drainage areas. However, widespread susceptibility, and the potential impacts from exceptionally large landslides, suggest that this hazard should be considered in the Pacific Northwest. The damability function workflow can ingest new data and be applied more broadly to assess future landslide dam hazards.

Oregon↗

USGS1999

Metolachlor and alachlor breakdown product formation patterns in aquatic field mesocosms

The transformation of metolachlor [2-chloro- N -(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)- N -(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] and alachlor [2-chloro- N -(2,6-diethylphenyl)- N -(methoxymethyl)acetamide] in aquatic systems was investigated using outdoor tank mesocosms. Metolachlor and alachlor levels and their ethane sulfonic acid (ESA) and oxanillic acid breakdown products were monitored over time under five experimental treatments (each in quadruplicate). Background water conditions were identical in all treatments with each treatment differing based on the level and type(s) of herbicide present. Treatments included a no-herbicide control, 10 μg/L metolachlor, 25 μg/L metolachlor, 25 μg/L alachlor, and 25 μg/L alachlor plus 25 μg/L metolachlor in combination. The experiment was initiated by adding herbicide(s) to the units to the target concentrations; herbicide and breakdown product levels and other chemical parameters were then monitored for 85 days. In general, metolachlor half-lives were longer than alachlor half-lives under all treatments, although the differences were not statistically significant. Metolachlor half-lives (±95% confidence limits) ranged from 33.0 d (±14.1 d) to 46.2 d (±40.0 d), whereas alachlor half-lives ranged from 18.7 d (±3.5 d) to 21.0 d (±6.5 d) for different treatments. Formation patterns of ESA were similar in all treatments, whereas oxanillic acid formation differed for the two herbicides. Alachlor oxanillic acid was produced in larger quantities than metolachlor oxanillic acid and either ESA under equivalent conditions. Our results suggest that the transformation pathways for alachlor and metolachlor in aquatic systems are similar and resemble the acetochlor pathway in soils proposed by Feng ( Pestic. Biochem. Physiol . 1991 , 34 , 136); however, the oxanillic acid branch of the pathway is favored for alachlor as compared with metolachlor.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2017

Biological relevance of streamflow metrics: Regional and national perspectives

Protecting the health of streams and rivers requires identifying ecologically significant attributes of the natural flow regime. Streamflow regimes are routinely quantified using a plethora of hydrologic metrics (HMs), most of which have unknown relevance to biological communities. At regional and national scales, we evaluated which of 509 commonly used HMs were associated with biological indicators of fish and invertebrate community integrity. We quantified alteration of each HM by using statistical models to predict site-specific natural baseline values for each of 728 sites across the USA where streamflow monitoring data were available concurrent with assessments of invertebrate or fish community integrity. We then ranked HMs according to their individual association with biological integrity based on random forest models that included HMs and other relevant covariates, such as land cover and stream chemistry. HMs were generally the most important predictors of biological integrity relative to the covariates. At a national scale, the most influential HMs were measures of depleted high flows, homogenization of flows, and erratic flows. Unique combinations of biologically relevant HMs were apparent among regions. We discuss the implications of our findings to the challenge of selecting HMs for streamflow research and management.

Freshwater Science↗

USGS2015

On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation

Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2002

Snow chemistry of the Cascade-Sierra Nevada Mountains

This investigation assesses geographic variations in atmospheric deposition in Washington, Oregon, and California using snow cores from the Cascade-Sierra Nevada Mountains, collected from late February to mid-March 1983. A statistical analysis of the analytical and sampling precision was made. The snowpack in the higher Cascades and Sierra Nevada is not strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities at present. The pH of snow samples ranges from 5.11 to 5.88. Sulfate and nitrate correlate with H+ in some segments of the sample traverse. The SO4 data show apparent influence from major source areas in Washington and California; nitrate does not. An apparent decrease in NH4 in snow in Washington and California suggests atmospheric interactions resulting in the removal of NH4. The NH4 reduction raises questions about nutrient supply to the mountain vegetation. Heavy-metal correlations included Cd, Cu, and Fe with Pb, and Mn with K and DOC, among others. No correlation was found between constituents and snow-water content.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Gas bubble trauma progression and mortality in sculpin, threespine stickleback, and Northern pikeminnow

We examined the progression of gas bubble trauma (GBT) and associated mortality in sculpin ( Cottus spp.), threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ), and Northern pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus oregonensis ) exposed to three levels of total dissolved gas (TDG; 120, 125, and 130% saturation) in laboratory experiments. Sculpin were most sensitive to elevated TDG followed by stickleback and then pikeminnow, which were least sensitive. This was evidenced by GBT and associated mortality progressing fastest in sculpin and slowest in pikeminnow. GBT incidence and severity increased through time at all TDG levels tested, but relationships between severity and exposure time were statistically weak or nonexistent. GBT mortality progressed more rapidly as TDG increased in all species. Regional criteria developed to rank GBT in salmonids did not fully capture the incidence and severity of GBT in the three nonsalmonids we examined. Rather, using criteria that considered all areas of the fish provided more accurate data. The lateral line, body, dorsal fin, and pectoral fins were common locations of GBT in sculpin whereas in stickleback and pikeminnow, GBT was most common on the head and body. The proximate cause of GBT-related death was bubbles in the gills and heart, but unlike in other species, bubbles in these organs appeared rapidly just before the point of death. Our findings provide some of the first information on TDG effects on these little-studied species.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2011

Use of recent and historical records to estimate status and trends of a rare and imperiled stream fish, Percina jenkinsi (Percidae)

Rarely encountered animals may be present but undetected, potentially leading to incorrect assumptions about the persistence of a local population or the conservation priority of a particular area. The federally endangered and narrowly endemic Conasauga logperch ( Percina jenkinsi ) is a good example of a rarely encountered fish species of conservation concern, for which basic population statistics are lacking. We evaluated the occurrence frequency for this species using surveys conducted with a repeat-observation sampling approach during the summer of 2008. We also analyzed museum records since the late 1980s to evaluate the trends in detected status through time. The results of these analyses provided support for a declining trend in this species over a portion of its historical range, despite low estimated detection probability. We used the results to identify the expected information return for a given level of monitoring where the sampling approach incorporates incomplete detection. The method applied here may be of value where historic occurrence records are available, provided that the assumption of constant capture efficiency is reasonable.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2025

Molluscan isotope sclerochronology in marine palaeoclimatology: Taxa, technique and timespan issues

Study of the accretionary biomineralised hardparts of organisms (sclerochronology) can make a useful contribution to palaeoclimatology. Ontogenetic sequences of isotopic data (δ 18 O and Δ 47 values) from the shells of marine molluscs are a source of information on seasonal sea-surface temperatures that can be used for detailed and rigorous evaluation of the outputs of numerical climate models. In situations where there is significant seasonality, and where shell preservation is adequate, accurate information about winter and summer surface temperature can be obtained from shallow-water benthic forms (bivalves and gastropods), in particular the early ontogeny of fast-growing species. Accurate information about winter surface temperature can also be obtained from individuals that lived at mid-shelf depths (20–40 m), but summer seafloor values from these need upward adjustment to derive a plausible surface temperature if thermal stratification of the water column occurs in this season. Ontogenetic δ 18 O profiles from planktonic pteropod gastropods are a potential source of insight into seasonal surface temperatures in the ocean basins; these organisms merit investigation for provision of information to complement shelf data. Temperature profiles constructed from shell δ 18 O require an estimate of the δ 18 O value of ambient seawater, which can be derived by back-calculation from the Δ 47 -temperature supplied by the same shell material. Alternatively, through appropriate sampling and data processing, seasonal temperatures can be obtained directly from Δ 47 profiles. Climate parameters are defined in terms of the mean state over a period of 30 consecutive years, a statistic (e.g., for seasonal temperatures) which can be derived from the long isotopic temperature records obtainable from bivalve species that live for many tens or hundreds of years. Efforts should be made to acquire such records, especially averaged data from crossdated shells, to specify climate parameters for precise times in the past. Information for precise times would be of particular value for icehouse intervals like the late Cenozoic, characterised by high frequency (high amplitude) climate fluctuation. Short records from non-crossdated shells can nevertheless provide useful insights into climate, particularly if a large dataset is obtained, supplying a reliable picture of the mean state and range of variation in climate parameters over the interval represented by the shells.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2017

Volcanic ash and aviation–The challenges of real-time, global communication of a natural hazard

More than 30 years after the first major aircraft encounters with volcanic ash over Indonesia in 1982, it remains challenging to inform aircraft in flight of the exact location of potentially dangerous ash clouds on their flight path, particularly shortly after the eruption has occurred. The difficulties include reliably forecasting and detecting the onset of significant explosive eruptions on a global basis, observing the dispersal of eruption clouds in real time, capturing their complex structure and constituents in atmospheric transport models, describing these observations and modelling results in a manner suitable for aviation users, delivering timely warning messages to the cockpit, flight planners and air traffic management systems, and the need for scientific development in order to undertake operational enhancements. The framework under which these issues are managed is the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). ICAO outlines in its standards and recommended practices (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2014) the basic volcanic monitoring and communication that is necessary at volcano observatories in Member States (countries). However, not all volcanoes are monitored and not all countries with volcanoes have mandated volcano observatories or equivalents. To add to the efforts of volcano observatories, a system of Meteorological Watch Offices, Air Traffic Management Area Control Centres, and nine specialist Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) are responsible for observing, analysing, forecasting and communicating the aviation hazard (airborne ash), using agreed techniques and messages in defined formats. Continuous improvement of the IAVW framework is overseen by expert groups representing the operators of the system, the user community, and the science community. The IAVW represents a unique marriage of two scientific disciplines - volcanology and meteorology - with the aviation user community. There have been many multifaceted volcanic eruptions in complex meteorological conditions during the history of the IAVW. Each new eruption brings new insights into how the warning system can be improved, and each reinforces the lessons that have gone before. The management of these events has improved greatly since the major ash encounters in the 1980s, but discontinuities in the warning and communications system still occur. A good example is a 2014 ash encounter over Indonesia following the eruption of Kelut where the warnings did not reach the aircraft crew. Other events present enormous management challenges – for example the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland was, overall, less hazardous than many less publicised eruptions, but numerous small to moderate explosions over several weeks produced widespread disruption and a large economic impact. At the time of writing, while there has been hundreds of millions of US dollars in damage to aircraft from encounters with ash, there have been no fatalities resulting from aviation incidents in, or proximal to volcanic ash cloud. This reflects, at least in part, the hard work done in putting together a global warning system - although to some extent it also reflects a measure of good statistical fortune. In order to minimise the risk of aircraft encounters with volcanic ash clouds, the global effort continues. The future priorities for the IAVW are strongly focused on enhancing communication before, and at the very onset of a volcanic ash-producing event (typically the more dangerous stage), together with improved downstream information and warning systems to help reduce the economic impact of eruptions on aviation.

Book chapter↗

USGS1992

Experiments with central-limit properties of spatial samples from locally covariant random fields

When spatial samples are statistically dependent, the classical estimator of sample-mean standard deviation is well known to be inconsistent. For locally dependent samples, however, consistent estimators of sample-mean standard deviation can be constructed. The present paper investigates the sampling properties of one such estimator, designated as the tau estimator of sample-mean standard deviation. In particular, the asymptotic normality properties of standardized sample means based on tau estimators are studied in terms of computer experiments with simulated sample-mean distributions. The effects of both sample size and dependency levels among samples are examined for various value of tau (denoting the size of the spatial kernel for the estimator). The results suggest that even for small degrees of spatial dependency, the tau estimator exhibits significantly stronger normality properties than does the classical estimator of standardized sample means.

Regional Science and Urban Economics↗

USGS2019

Is there convergence of gut microbes in blood-feeding vertebrates?

Animal microbiomes play an important role in dietary adaptation, yet the extent to which microbiome changes exhibit parallel evolution is unclear. Of particular interest is an adaptation to extreme diets, such as blood, which poses special challenges in its content of proteins and lack of essential nutrients. In this study, we assessed taxonomic signatures (by 16S rRNA amplicon profiling) and potential functional signatures (inferred by Phylogenetic Investigation of Communities by Reconstruction of Unobserved States (PICRUSt)) of haematophagy in birds and bats. Our goal was to test three alternative hypotheses: no convergence of microbiomes, convergence in taxonomy and convergence in function. We find a statistically significant effect of haematophagy in terms of microbial taxonomic convergence across the blood-feeding bats and birds, although this effect is small compared to the differences found between haematophagous and non-haematophagous species within the two host clades. We also find some evidence of convergence at the predicted functional level, although it is possible that the lack of metagenomic data and the poor representation of microbial lineages adapted to haematophagy in genome databases limit the power of this approach. The results provide a paradigm for exploring convergent microbiome evolution replicated with independent contrasts in different host lineages.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2017

Forecasting stream habitat and Brook Trout responses to climate change in Catoctin Mountain Park

Anticipating and mitigating the effects of climate change is a fundamental challenge for natural resource conservation. In this report, we respond to research needs identified by Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO) for native Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) conservation and management as part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Resources Preservation Program in FY15-16. We addressed three overarching research questions: (1) How will anticipated changes in air temperature affect stream habitats? (2) How will changes to stream habitat affect the distribution of Brook Trout? (3) Which stream segments are most and least vulnerable to the effects of climate change? First, we surveyed Brook Trout abundance and fish community composition using electrofishing techniques within three watersheds: Owens Creek, upper Big Hunting Creek, and Blue Blazes Creek (a tributary to Big Hunting Creek). Second, we deployed a network of stream temperature gages to assess spatial variation in stream temperature and groundwater (GW) influence. Third, we used modeling techniques to forecast future stream temperatures that account for GW influences and air temperature scenarios. Fish sampling detected 13 species and 15,345 individual fish, the majority of which were Blacknose Dace (60%), Blue Ridge Sculpin (26%), and Brook Trout (6%). Brook Trout were not observed in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited higher densities in Owens Creek than upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 19 fish/100 m and 4 fish/100 m, respectively). In contrast, Brown Trout were present in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited greater density in Blue Blazes Creek than either Owens Creek or upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 3.0 fish/100 m, 0.3 fish/100 m, and 1.7 fish/100 m, respectively). Brown Trout occurred in sympatry with Brook Trout in Owens Creek and upper Big Hunting Creek, but appeared to have replaced Brook Trout in Blue Blazes Creek. Our fish surveys also revealed important locations for Brook Trout reproduction and young-of-year (YOY) dispersal within the Owens Creek watershed. Our study also revealed surprising differences in the distribution of Blue Ridge Sculpin among CATO streams. This species was abundant in Owens Creek (average density = 83 fish/100 m) but was less common in Blue Blazes Creek (average density = 12 fish/100 m) and was not detected in upper Big Hunting Creek. Histological examination of several specimens from Blue Blazes Creek by V. Blazer at the USGS Leetown Science Center revealed the presence of a novel parasite (Dermosystidium sp.) which has been linked to fish population declines elsewhere (Blazer et al. 2016). The parasite was not detected in Blue Ridge Sculpin samples from Owens Creek, and all trout appeared to be uninfected. Our survey results suggest that Blue Ridge Sculpin have been extirpated from upper Big Hunting Creek and have not recolonized from downstream source populations due to the fish passage barrier of Cunningham Falls. We recommend additional research to (1) evaluate the feasibility of reintroducing Blue Ridge Sculpin into upper Big Hunting Creek and (2) continue monitoring the distribution and potential spread of Dermocystidium in downstream waters. Stream temperatures ranged from 9.6 – 27.6 ºC during baseflow conditions in 2015 and 2016. Sites within upper Big Hunting Creek were consistently warmer than in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek, suggesting an effect of headwater ponds outside CATO on upper Big Hunting Creek temperatures. For instance, in 2016 the maximum observed temperature in upper Big Hunting Creek was 27.6 ºC whereas Owens Creek reached a maximum of 23.7 ºC that year. Stream temperature data also revealed that 2016 was warmer than 2015 throughout the study area but did not exceed thermal tolerance limits for Brook Trout in either year. We estimated the influence of GW on stream temperatures using a statistical modeling approach based on the relationship between daily mean air temperature and stream temperature over time. Results indicated that effects of GW were generally stronger in the Owens Creek watershed than in Blue Blazes or upper Big Hunting Creek. However, we detected substantial spatial variation in GW influence among Owens Creek sites, with stream temperatures at some locations showing relatively little GW influence and others showing very strong influences (and correspondingly small influence of daily mean air temperatures). Although incoming lateral seeps were detected in upper Big Hunting Creek (D. Ferrier, Hood College, personal communication), the strongest effects of GW in the study area were due to GW upwelling within portions of the Owens Creek watershed (i.e., Tributary C in Figure 4) where we also observed high numbers of Brook Trout juveniles. Our results therefore identified potential high-priority areas for Brook Trout conservation in CATO. Finally, we modeled future stream temperatures based on scenarios characterizing GW sensitivity to air temperature and future air temperature increases. Stream temperature forecasts revealed important differences in habitat suitability for Brook Trout within and among watersheds. Big Hunting Creek sites were generally more sensitive to air temperature increases than sites in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek. For instance, an increase in mean annual air temperature of 1.5 ºC (lowest level evaluated) exceeded thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in the majority of sites within that watershed, regardless of GW influence levels. In contrast, an air temperature increase of 1.5 ºC did not exceed thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in Owens Creek. However, modeled air temperature increases of 5 ºC resulted in a loss of Brook Trout thermal suitability throughout the study area. Model results revealed spatially patchy responses to air temperature increases that could provide an early-warning system for trout monitoring designs in CATO.

Maryland↗

USGS2017

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

California↗