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Swatara Creek basin of southeastern Pennsylvania: An evaluation of its hydrologic system

Local concentrations of population in the Swatara Creek basin of Pennsylvania find it necessary to store, transport, and treat water because local supplies are either deficient or have been contaminated by disposal of wastes in upstream areas. Water in the basin is available for the deficient areas and for dilution of the coal-mine drainage in the northern parts and the sewage wastes in the southern parts. Swatara Creek drains 576 square miles just east of Harrisburg, Pa., and is the largest tributary to the Susquehanna River from the north side below Harrisburg. It rises in the southern Pocono Mountains and flows southwestward across the Lebanon Plateau. On an average day Swatara Creek discharges more than 630 million gallons into the Susquehanna River at Middletown, Pa. In a year this amounts to about 23 inches of water over the entire basin and is the residual from an average annual precipitation of 45.5 inches. During an average year the flow in Swatara Creek from the upper third of the basin above Harper Tavern is always greater than 1,300 mgd (million gallons per day) for at least 15 days and is always greater than 25 mgd for at least 350 days. The daily streamflow from the basin averages 1.1 mgd per sq mi, but yields from different areas range from 0.97 to 1.22 mgd per sq mi. These variations are caused chiefly by differences in precipitation and land cover. The area of lowest yield is in the valleys west of Tremont, and the highest yields are in the Upper and Lower Little Swatara Creek subbasins. At high and medium stages the chemical character of the water in the streams is suitable for public and private supplies. At lower stages, defending on the areas and the amounts of contamination by coal-mine drainage and sewage pollution, the natural flow may require some treatment. At low stages the chemical characteristics of the natural flow not affected by man is almost identical with that of the ground water in the area drained by the stream. In general, the total dissolved solids range from about 25 to 400 parts per million and the hardness is as much as about 300 parts per million. The ground-water increment to the base flow of Swatara Creek averages about 240 mgd, or about 8.8 inches annually, for the basin. Generally, ground-water supplies in amounts of less than 0.5 mgd can be developed south of Blue Mountain. Supplies of several million gallons per day have been developed for industrial use from the permeable limestones in the south-central part of the basin. More intensive investigation in other parts of the basin would indicate areas where supplies of more than 0.5 mgd could be developed from properly spaced wells. The chemical character of water from wells depends largely on the host rock. In highly soluble rocks water contains large amount of dissolved solids; in more resistant rocks concentrations are lower. The chemical character of unpolluted ground water generally reflects the composition of the more readily soluble minerals in the local geologic environment. Areas contaminated by septic- tank effluent may have above normal amounts of nitrate and detergent products. Except where polluted, most ground water is suitable for public and industrial uses without extensive treatment. Sites for storage of surface water exist in the part of the basin lying in the valley and ridge area. As much as 30 to 40 percent of the annual flow could be impounded for release as low-flow augmentation for dilution of mine drainage and other wastes in the basin. Low sediment yields of supplying drainage areas would ensure a long life expectancy of reservoirs at these sites. Overbank flooding of the main stem of the Swatara Creek and its tributaries has occurred many times in the past. However, it has not been a hazard because urban development has not encroached on the flood plain. An inundation map of the August 1933 flood provides a basis that urban planners may use to avoid future damage. As water in the Swatara Creek moves downstream to the Susquehanna River, the flow is influenced consecutively by a large annual rainfall on the northern valley and ridge area, the wastes of surface and subsurface coal-mining activities, and less annual rainfall on the part of the basin lying in the Lebanon Plateau area; the flow is supplemented and further influenced by many tributaries and by the industrial and domestic wastes that are carried by these secondary streams. The annual precipitation ranges from 52 inches at the east edge and 49 inches at the west edge of the mountainous part of the basin to about 41 inches at the southwestern part at Middletown. The rainfall generally is adequate during the growing season to mature the crops. The mean annual temperature at Lebanon is about 52°F, and the growing season is about 180 days. In this report the basin has been divided into eight hydrologic zones, leased on runoff, natural use of water, and chemical character of water. Four zones lie in the valley and ridge area, three lie in the Lebanon Plateau area, and one lies in the highland along the southeastern basin boundary. In each of the zones the hydrologic characteristics are virtually the same, but they may be completely different from those in adjacent zones. The boundaries of the zones generally coincide with boundaries between geologic formations, and the areas in each zone include rocks of similar influence on water. Streams in zone 4 at the northeast edge of the plateau have the highest average surface runoff from 1.2 to 1.1 mgd per sq mi whereas those in zone 2 at the northwest edge of the valley and ridge area have the lowest, about 1.0 mgd. Streams in zone 8, along the southeast edge of the basin, have the largest sustained low-flow yield, about 0.26 to 0.19 mgd per sq mi; those in zone 5 overlying the Martinsburg Shale east of Harrisburg have the smallest sustained low-flow yields, 0.03 to 0.01 mgd. Streams in the limestone area of zone 7 have the greatest range in low-flow yields in any one zone from 0.60 to 0 mgd per sq mi. Low-flow yields in zones 1 through 4 range from 0.13 to 0.03 mgd per sq mi. Surface flows from zones 1 and 2 are generally acidic and contain high concentrations of sulfate, iron, and total dissolved solids especially where contaminated with mine wastes. Surface flows from zones 3 and 4 are dilute, slightly alkaline, and suitable for public water supplies. Surface flows from zones 5, 6, and 7 are alkaline and contain moderate concentrations of dissolved solids with waters of highest hardness occurring in zone 7. Surface flows from zone 8 are dilute to moderately mineralized and are relatively high in silica concentration. Nitrate concentrations are high in surf Fee flows below sewage outfalls and in ground water contaminated by septic tank effluent and industrial wastes. Average annual sediment yields of 550 to 650 tons per square mile are characteristic of zones 1 and 2 where strip mining has destroyed the forest cover and coal culm is carried into the streams. From agricultural lands on the Martinsburg Shale in zones 5 and 6, annual sediment yields range from 300 to 350 tons per square mile; but from agricultural lands on the siliceous rocks in zone 8 and zones 3 and 4 in the valley and ridge area, the sediment yield ranges from 200 to 250 tons annually per square mile. Lowest annual sediment yields in the basin are in the forested areas of siliceous rocks in zones 2, 3, 4, and 5, and in the sinkhole topography of the limestones in zone 7 where the yield ranges from 30 to 35 tons and 50 to 60 tons per square mile, respectively. The amount of ground water that can be developed in the basin is dependent on the ability of the underlying rocks to yield water to wells. More than 300 gpm (gallons per minute) can be obtained from wells in alluvial materials in the valley bottoms and in some of the limestones where large solution channels and fractures are penetrated by the wells. From 50 to 300 gpm can be obtained from wells in loosely cemented sandstones and in fractured limestones. From 10 to 50 gpm can be developed from wells in the shales and harder sandstones. The most dense rocks will yield from 1 to 10 gpm from fractures and crevices. Most wells yield water from the upper 350 feet of the formation, for this part contains the most fractures or solution channels. Studies show that the velocity at which a contaminant will move downstream in the basin is related to the discharge of the stream at the time. At a stream discharge of about 400 mgd at Pine Grove, a contaminant in Swatara Creek would require about 40 hours to move from Pine Grove to Middletown. As a result of dispersion and dilution, the maximum concentration of the contaminant at Middletown would be less than 20 percent the concentration at Pine Grove under these conditions. An evaluation of the availability of water in the basin indicates that about I,239 mgd enters as precipitation, 630 mgd leaves as streamflow, 580 mgd is evaporated and transpired, and 56 mgd is diverted for use by man. Not all the diversions for man's use are lost to the basin, as about 27 mgd is returned as sewage for reuse. About one-fourth of the waste water is returned to the ground and the remainder to stream drainageways. Of that diverted by man, 11.6 mgd is used for public supply and 44.4 mgd for industrial and private supplies. Diversions of streamflow furnish 86 percent of the public supply and 27 percent of the industrial supply, and ground-water sources yield the remainder. Municipal and private sewage treatment plants are upgrading the waste water in many places, but no provisions are being made for treatment other than natural dilution and assimilation for the 15 mgd of coal-nine drainage in the northern part of the basin. Technology for economic treatment of mine water is not available at this time, although research in this field is being done. Urbanization eastward from Harrisburg and around Lebanon has increased the population density of the basin. Densities of 500 people per square mile and water use exceeding 2.0 mgd per sq mi can be expected in the future. By the year 2000 the population of the basin may increase 60 percent; and if the per capita rate of use increases 0.5 percent per year the domestic requirements for water will be about two times the present use, or 23 mgd. Similarly, if the present 1:4 ratio of domestic use to industrial use of water continues, at least 89 mgd will be needed for industry in the future. Although an increase to twice the present use of water can be foreseen, or 112 mgd, water for the dilution and assimilation of wastes from treatment systems are not included. Providing water for dilution of wastes from treatment plants has not been a problem, but in the future the amounts needed for this purpose will be greater as the population increases. As water becomes more valuable, treatment of sewage wastes to reduce the biochemical-oxygen-demand load by at least 80 to 90 percent will be necessary to conserve water for more productive uses. As much as 100 mgd may be needed for waste dilution in the basin by year 2000. The present trends in suburban and light industrial development will probably persist in the basin. Problems arising through changes in economic value of water, conflicts in use, and alternatives in development are typical of those confronting the manager of a water-resource system.

Pennsylvania

Water supplies in western Kentucky during 1984

An inventory was conducted between April and October 1985 of 101 major public supply systems and of self-supplied commercial and industrial water systems in a 27-county area in western Kentucky. These systems, because they withdraw at least 10,000 gal/day (gpd), are regulated by the Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Projection Cabinet (Division of Water) through a permitting program. The major purpose of the inventory was to evaluate the adequacy of these water systems to meet demands during times of drought. The inventory indicated that these systems withdrew 116.3 million gpd in 1984. The study showed that public facilities supplied 33.1 mil gpd to 471,500 people. Bowling Green Municipal Utilities in the Green River basin was the largest single public supplier. It supplied 5.05 million gpd to 48,000 people, and also sold over 1.7 million gpd to about 30 ,000 people through the Warren County Water System. Comparisons of ground- and surface-water use indicated the Lower Ohio River basin had the highest percentage of surface-water use at 97%, and the Mississippi River basin had the highest percentage of groundwater use at 41%. Sources of water were generally adequate throughout the study area. Sources for two industries, also in the Green River basin, are inadequate. Six systems may have potential problems with their treatment plant capacities because they are operating at > 80% of design capacity. Three of these systems are in the Green River basin, two are in the Lower Cumberland River basin, and one is in the Tennessee River basin. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in Tegucigalpa, Honduras

The arrival of Hurricane Mitch in Honduras in the latter part of the 1998 hurricane season produced effects that were unprecedented in their widespread nature throughout Central America. After winds from the storm had blown down more than 70 percent of the conifer forest on the Bay Island of Guanaja, the hurricane turned inland and stalled over the mainland of Honduras for 3 days. The resulting deluge of rainfall produced devastating flooding and landslides that resulted in more than 9,000 fatalities and 3 million people displaced. Although the eye of Hurricane Mitch passed through the northern part of Honduras, the greatest rainfall totals and intensities occurred in the southern part of the country near Choluteca. For the three days October 29-31, 1998, total rainfall at Choluteca exceeded 900 mm. Not surprisingly, it was in this area that the highest landslide concentrations occurred.

Open-File Report

Geologic map and structure sections along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and adjacent areas from Cache Creek to Lake Berryessa, northern Coast Ranges, California

Introduction Located in the Coast Ranges of northern California, the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is the easternmost fault in the San Andreas Fault system in northern California. The fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip structure considered capable of producing an earthquake of moment magnitude 7. The purpose of this mapping is to better characterize the geology and earthquake hazards associated with the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and to help identify any evidence of active uplift on the faults bounding the Coast Ranges. Although the area immediately surrounding the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is sparsely populated, its southern segment presents a potential seismic hazard to northern California communities as far away as the San Francisco Bay region and Sacramento. There are also nearby water resources, mineral resources, and public lands used for public recreation. The Coast Ranges of northern California are a series of northwest-southeast-oriented mountain ranges and valleys located north of the San Francisco Bay region, between the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Sacramento Valley to the east. The region has rugged terrain, high mountain peaks that reach more than 2,400 meters above sea level, isolated and narrow valley bottoms on which most human settlements are located, and large drainage systems that tend to follow the northwest-southeast-oriented topographic grain. The physiographic character of the region is shaped by its bedrock geology, deformational history, and active faulting. The basement rocks of the northern Coast Ranges consist of the Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex, the latter of which consists of two informal units, the Coast Range ophiolite and the Great Valley sequence. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are in structural contact along the Coast Range Fault, a regional-scale structure and fundamental crustal boundary. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are superposed by active, northwest-southeast-striking strike-slip faults that are associated with seismicity swarms. These active strike-slip faults can produce moderate to large earthquakes that have moment magnitudes of 7–8. In places, these active structures bound large ranges and valleys, suggesting that much of the modern topographic expression is the result of active deformation processes. This report contains new 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone between Clear Lake and Lake Berryessa. The map area spans 738 square kilometers in northern Napa County, southern Lake County, and parts of Yolo and Colusa Counties. The south and east borders of the map are 90 kilometers north of San Francisco and 70 kilometers west of Sacramento, respectively. The map area is within the Knoxville mining district, which has a history of mercury and gold mining dating back to the mid-19th century. The two main towns in the region, Lower Lake and Clearlake, California, are west-northwest of the map area. Approximately 71,000 people live in the cities and rural communities located within a 40-kilometer radius of the center of the map area. The bedrock geology, cross sections, and structural data presented herein are critical for evaluating the long-term evolution of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone. This work will supplement studies on local seismic hazards, liquefaction potential, landslide hazards, earthquake geology, natural resources, groundwater resources, engineering geology, and tectonic history by providing the background information for site-specific investigations on these subjects.

California

Historical rock falls in Yosemite National Park, California (1857-2011)

Inventories of rock falls and other types of landslides are valuable tools for improving understanding of these events. For example, detailed information on rock falls is critical for identifying mechanisms that trigger rock falls, for quantifying the susceptibility of different cliffs to rock falls, and for developing magnitude-frequency relations. Further, inventories can assist in quantifying the relative hazard and risk posed by these events over both short and long time scales. This report describes and presents the accompanying rock fall inventory database for Yosemite National Park, California. The inventory database documents 925 events spanning the period 1857–2011. Rock falls, rock slides, and other forms of slope movement represent a serious natural hazard in Yosemite National Park. Rock-fall hazard and risk are particularly relevant in Yosemite Valley, where glacially steepened granitic cliffs approach 1 km in height and where the majority of the approximately 4 million yearly visitors to the park congregate. In addition to damaging roads, trails, and other facilities, rock falls and other slope movement events have killed 15 people and injured at least 85 people in the park since the first documented rock fall in 1857. The accompanying report describes each of the organizational categories in the database, including event location, type of slope movement, date, volume, relative size, probable trigger, impact to humans, narrative description, references, and environmental conditions. The inventory database itself is contained in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (Yosemite_rock_fall_database_1857-2011.xlsx). Narrative descriptions of events are contained in the database, but are also provided in a more readable Adobe portable document format (pdf) file (Yosemite_rock_fall_database_narratives_1857-2011.pdf) available for download separate from the database.

California

Turning on the faucet to a healthy coast

Coastal re-engineering and freshwater extraction have reduced water flow into the estuaries of the world. Because of these activities, stressed coastal vegetation is especially vulnerable to die-off during droughts, contributing to a loss of human services related to storm protection, fisheries and water quality. The subsequent collapse of vegetation is often as related to the loss of flow as to the rise in salinity. The solution to the problem in regions with rapidly expanding human populations may be to apply strategically timed freshwater releases to estuaries. To be successful, the water requirements of both humans and natural environments need careful assessment. Flow management projects have been successful in reviving vegetation in a number of settings including The Everglades, Murray River, Mississippi River and Nueces River. These projects can be contentious, for example, if the projects have caused negative impacts to the oyster industry. Beyond the human services provided, flowing water has an intrinsic personal value for which many people are willing to pay.

Solutions Journal

Toward an integrated understanding of perceived biodiversity values and environmental conditions in a national park

In spatial planning and management of protected areas, increased priority is being given to research that integrates social and ecological data. However, public viewpoints of the benefits provided by ecosystems are not easily quantified and often implicitly folded into natural resource management decisions. Drawing on a spatially explicit participatory mapping exercise and a Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) analysis tool, the present study empirically examined and integrated social values for ecosystem services and environmental conditions within Channel Islands National Park, California. Specifically, a social value indicator of perceived biodiversity was examined using on-site survey data collected from a sample of people who visited the park. This information was modeled alongside eight environmental conditions including faunal species richness for six taxa, vegetation density, categories of marine and terrestrial land cover, and distance to features relevant for decision-makers. Results showed that biodiversity value points assigned to places by the pooled sample of respondents were widely and unevenly mapped, which reflected the belief that biodiversity was embodied to varying degrees by multiple locations in the park. Models generated for two survey subgroups defined by their self-reported knowledge of the Channels Islands revealed distinct spatial patterns of these perceived values. Specifically, respondents with high knowledge valued large spaces that were publicly inaccessible and unlikely to contain on-ground biodiversity, whereas respondents with low knowledge valued places that were experienced first-hand. Accessibility and infrastructure were also important considerations for anticipating how and where people valued the protected land and seascapes of Channel Islands National Park.

California

The need to step-up monitoring of Asian bears

Many wildlife species are threatened in Asia, including the five species of terrestrial bears (Asiatic black, Ursus thibetanus ; brown, U. arctos ; sloth, Melursus ursinus ; sun, Helarctos malayanus ; giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca ): many populations of these bears are thought to be declining or imperiled by small population size. Here our aim is to document how population assessments have been conducted for bears in Asia. We searched the literature and identified 102 studies published during 1999–2021 that investigated the status of an Asian bear population; these occurred in 24 of the 32 bear range countries in Asia. At the most basic level, 11% of studies verified presence of bears in places where they were not known to exist. The most common objective (53% of papers) was a distribution map, often derived from presence locations in a habitat-based model. Occupancy studies (15%) used temporal (time stamps on images from cameras) or spatial (transect segments) replicates, but tended to focus on “use”, so detector spacing was sometimes not appropriate for occupancy. Purported population indices, such as sign density or camera trap encounter rates, were reported in 16% of studies. One third of studies provided a population estimate, but only 10 studies in two decades used a rigorous method (e.g., mark–recapture). Sign surveys and interviews were the most common methods for determining bear presence, and local interviews were heavily relied upon for assessing population trend. Camera trapping has become increasingly prevalent, but only one study obtained a population estimate using photographs to distinguish natural individual markings. Only three studies used hair traps to obtain DNA-based population estimates, and three other studies obtained population estimates from DNA in scats. Just three studies quantitatively measured change in population size or occupancy over time, and none of these showed a decline. Unique rangewide sign surveys of giant pandas showed significant geographic expansion. The opinions of experts and local people, now heavily relied upon for population assessments, are not reliable or sensitive enough for monitoring. Quantitative population assessments are desirable to direct conservation actions toward the most perilous situations, and provide a means to gauge the effectiveness of conservation actions. This paper demonstrates the paucity of rigorous monitoring of Asian bears, and leads off a series of papers that propose improved methods for assessing distribution, occupancy, and density

Global Ecology and Conservation

Restricting wolves risks escape

Implementing the proposal set forth by Licht and colleagues ( BioScience 60: 147–153) requires restricting wolves to tiny "islands," areas that are magnitudes smaller than the ranges of most wolf populations. Wolves naturally have large ranges; restricting their spatial needs increases the risk of wolves escaping, exacerbating public relations and political and legal problems. These problems would not be solved by (a) scaring back straying radioed wolves; (b) controlling reproduction; or (c) the use of physical, virtual, or biological barriers. The problem is not wolves breeding; it is wolves killing livestock and pets, or at least people fearing they will. Standard wolf-proof barriers are 10-feet-high, chain-link fences with a 4-foot apron buried 2-feet below ground. Virtual fences, shock-collars with electrodes continually touching the skin, and frequent battery replacement are all problematic, even for captive wolves (Shivik et al. 2002). Scent-marking and howling, controls suggested by Licht and colleagues, can affect wolf movements, but our research demonstrates that trespass is common (Mech 1994). The prospects for public tolerance of such costly and intensive management seems dim anytime soon.

BioScience

Informal trail monitoring protocols: Denali National Park and Preserve

The National Park Service (NPS) accommodates nearly 300 million visitors per year, visitation that presents managers with substantial challenges at some 394 park units across some 83.6 million acres of protected lands. An increasing number of visitors inevitably contribute negative effects to fragile natural and cultural resources. Such visitation - related resource impacts can degrade natural conditions and processes and the quality of recreation experiences. According to the NPS Management Policies: ―The fundamental purpose of the national park system , established by the Organic Act and reaffirmed by the General Authorities Act, as amended, begins with a mandate to conserve park resources and values...The fundamental purpose of all parks also includes providing for the enjoyment of park resources and values by the people of the United States.‖ (NPS 2006 b , Section 1.4.3). However, what might appear to be dual mandates, visitation and resource protection, are clarified to reveal the primacy of resource protection. The Management Policies acknowledge that so me resource degradation is an inevitable consequence of visitation, but directs managers to ―ensure that any adverse impacts are the minimum necessary, unavoidable, cannot be further mitigated, and do not constitute impairment or derogation of park resources and values‖ (NPS 2006 b ).

Alaska

Minnesota landowners’ trust in their department of natural resources, salient values similarity and wildlife value orientations

Due to extensive land conversion over the last century, much of the native prairie pothole ecosystem has been converted to agricultural or other human uses. The prairie pothole ecosystem is found in the northern plains of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. Because most of the land in this region is privately owned and used for agricultural production, most impacts to wildlife habitat are the result of decisions by individual landowners. Landowner trust in natural resource management agencies is important for agencies to effectively accomplish their mission. We measured the nature (competence and fairness) and level of trust that western Minnesota landowners have in the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MnDNR) and landowners’ wildlife value orientations (WVO). Landowners rated MnDNR slightly higher in competence than fairness; however, these two dimensions were strongly correlated. We developed a MnDNR trust scale (six items) and a three-cluster model dividing landowners along the MnDNR trust scale, which we named Negative (28%), Neutral (43%), and Positive (29%). We provide evidence supporting the salient values similarity (SVS) model that states people have trust in agencies holding similar values; landowners reporting greater importance for wildlife consideration when making land-use decisions also reported greater trust in the MnDNR. In addition, mutualist landowners had the highest trust in the MnDNR and utilitarian landowners the lowest level of trust, which is opposite of the trust relationship reported for the general public with state wildlife agencies. Based on the SVS model, our results suggest that mutualist landowners perceive greater congruence with MnDNR goals related to wildlife habitat compared to utilitarian landowners.

Minnesota

2009 Observer Survey Report

The USA‐National Phenology Network (USA‐NPN) seeks to engage volunteer observers in collecting phenological observations of plants and animals using consistent standards and to contribute their observations to a national data repository. In March 2009, the National Coordinating Office staff implemented an online monitoring program for 213 plant species. In this pilot year of the program, 547 observers reported phenology observations on one or more plants via the online interface. To learn more about our participants and to improve our program and our participants’ experience, we undertook a survey of individuals registered in the USA‐NPN phenology observation program. This report summarizes the results of the 2009 observer surveys. Two populations were targeted via separate surveys: Individuals who registered with the USA‐NPN plant phenology monitoring program via MyNPN but did not submit any data in 2009 (hereafter termed “non‐reporting participants”), and Individuals who submitted phenology observations via MyNPN in 2009 (hereafter termed “reporting participants”). In general, all participants in the 2009 USA‐NPN plant phenology observation program seemed to have a generally good experience. When asked why they would or would not recommend the program to friends, the majority of comments were of a positive nature, and included explanations such as, “It is an interesting and fairly light duty activity”, “It’s a cool program!”, and “A way to contribute to science”. The most commonly indicated reason for not submitting observations among non‐reporters was getting lost in the registration process (14% of respondents). Another 14% of respondents indicated that they had collected observations but did not submit them online, indicating that more people may be engaged in understanding phenology than our estimates based on data submitted suggest. Survey participants’ suggestions for improving the program fell into several categories, including the need for a more expansive list of plants from which to pick, the ability to monitor animals, and more information on the plants, including photographs of the various phenophases to aid in identification. Participants also requested increased contact from the USA‐NPN, in the form of weekly or monthly emails or newsletters and reminders to collect and submit observations. Many of these suggestions are either already being addressed in changes being made to the monitoring system and online entry system or are planned for the future.

USA-NPN Technical Series

Platte River Forum for the Future: workshop model documentation

The Platte River Forum for the Future (PRFF) is an effort by the Nebraska Natural Resources Commission (NNRC) to bring together representatives of interests and agencies concerned with management of the Platte River and, assisted by various computer technologies, to reach some degree of agreement on the “best uses” of the remaining waters of the Platte. Simulation modeling is being used in this effort as a focal point for developing a common understanding of the behavior of the Platte River system, synthesizing existing information, identifying additional needed information, and analyzing the potential consequences of various management alternatives. The NNRC initiated the project in August 1982 by convening a workshop for interested parties in Grand Island, Nebraska. This workshop was devoted to construction of a preliminary simulation model describing the Platte River system. A group of facilitators/modelers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) assisted participants in translating their understanding of the Platte River into the framework of the model. In October 1982, FWS personnel began a process of training several people from Nebraska in the use of the model. At that time, minor revisions and corrections were made in the model and various development scenarios were prepared for discussion with participants at a second workshop, which was held in early November 1982. The purpose of this report is to document the status of the PRFF simulation model as of the end of the November 1982 meeting. We emphasize that the intent is not to describe a final product. Except for minor revisions and correction of obvious errors, the model described herein is that which existed at the end of the August workshop. The model contains the foundation for a comprehensive aid to decisionmakers, but at this time it is preliminary in nature, needing refinement and verification before it can be truly useful in analyzing management alternatives. The purpose of this report is to provide a solid foundation for that important future work. The report is divided into three basic parts. The first is a brief overview of the various components of the model and how they fit together. It is intended for those who are not particularly interested in the details of model formulation. The second is a detailed discussion of the logic, assumptions, equations, and data used in constructing the model. This detailed description is also referenced to specific sections of the third part, which is a set of appendices containing listings of the computer code as it presently exists.

Nebraska

Fort Collins Science Center-Fiscal year 2009 science accomplishments

Public land and natural resource managers in the United States are confronted with increasingly complex decisions that have important ramifications for both ecological and human systems. The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center?many of whom are at the forefront of their fields?possess a unique blend of ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise. Because of this diverse talent, Fort Collins Science Center staff are able to apply a systems approach to investigating complicated ecological problems in a way that helps answer critical management questions. In addition, the Fort Collins Science Center has a long record of working closely with the academic community through cooperative agreements and other collaborations. The Fort Collins Science Center is deeply engaged with other U.S. Geological Survey science centers and partners throughout the Department of the Interior. As a regular practice, we incorporate the expertise of these partners in providing a full complement of ?the right people? to effectively tackle the multifaceted research problems of today's resource-management world. In Fiscal Year 2009, the Fort Collins Science Center's scientific and technical professionals continued research vital to Department of the Interior's science and management needs. Fort Collins Science Center work also supported the science needs of other Federal and State agencies as well as non-government organizations. Specifically, Fort Collins Science Center research and technical assistance focused on client and partner needs and goals in the areas of biological information management and delivery, enterprise information, fisheries and aquatic systems, invasive species, status and trends of biological resources (including human dimensions), terrestrial ecosystems, and wildlife resources. In the process, Fort Collins Science Center science addressed natural-science information needs identified in the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy (http://www.usgs.gov/science_strategy), including understanding and predicting change in ecosystems, climate variability and change, energy development and land management, the role of the environment and wildlife in human health, freshwater ecosystems, data integration, and evolving technologies. Several science projects were expanded in Fiscal Year 2009 to meet these evolving needs.

Open-File Report

Spreading like wildfire: The rising threat of extraordinary landscape fires - A rapid response assessment

Free-burning landscape fire is an important natural phenomenon critical to the healthy functioning of many ecosystems. It is an important land management tool, culturally, economically, and ecologically. Therefore, not all vegetation fires are unwanted. This Rapid Response Assessment (RRA) focuses on the apparent increase in the occurrence, extent, duration, and consequences of wildfires – unusual or extraordinary free-burning vegetation fires. The RRA considers the changing patterns of wildfires around the world, their impact on people and the environment, and options for mitigating risk and improving our response.

Book

Anthropogenic enhancement of moderate-to-strong El Niño events likely contributed to drought and poor harvests in southern Africa during 2016

In December–February (DJF) of 2015/16, a strong El Niño (Niño‑3.4 SST >29°C) contributed to a severe drought over southern Africa (SA; Funk et al. 2016). A 9-million ton cereal deficit resulted in 26 mil‑ lion people in need of humanitarian assistance (SADC 2016). While SA rainfall has a well-documented nega‑ tive teleconnection with Niño‑3.4 SSTs (Hoell et al. 2015, 2017; Jury et al. 1994; Lindesay 1988; Misra 2003; Nicholson and Entekhabi 1987; Nicholson and Kim 1997; Reason et al. 2000; Rocha and Simmonds 1997), the link between climate change and El Niño remains unclear (Christensen et al. 2013) due to the large natural variability of ENSO SSTs (Wittenberg 2009), uncertainties surrounding measurements and trends (Solomon and Newman 2012), intermodel differences in ENSO representation and feedbacks (Guilyardi et al. 2012; Kim et al. 2014), and difficulties associated with quantifying ENSO strength (Cai et al. 2015).

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

A century of hydrologic data collection prepares western Long Island for current and future water-resources challenges

Freshwater is a vital natural resource. New York is a water-rich State; however, even here, the economical use of water resources is needed to ensure there is enough water of adequate quality for human and ecological needs—now and into the future. Nowhere in New York is this more evident than on Long Island where public-water supply is obtained from the sole-source aquifers directly beneath the 3 million people that live there. The U.S. Geological Survey works in partnership with the Nassau County Department of Public Works and Department of Health to monitor streamflow, groundwater, water quality, and water use.

New York

Lessons from 40 years of communicating volcanic risk during crises

Since the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption that killed over 23,000 people in Armero, Colombia, risk communication has become central to volcanic crisis management. Despite the development of effective tools and programmes for volcanic risk communication, considerable challenges remain.

Nature Geoscience