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At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Evaluating streamwater dissolved organic carbon dynamics in context of variable flowpath contributions with a tracer-based mixing model

This study focuses on characterizing the contributions of key terrestrial pathways that deliver dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to streams during hydrological events and on elucidating factors governing variation in water and DOC fluxes from these pathways. We made high-frequency measurements of discharge, specific conductance (SC), and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) during 221 events recorded over 2 years within four Vermont (USA) watersheds that range in area from 0.4 to 139 km 2 . Using the SC measurements, together with statistical information on discharge, we separated the event hydrographs into contributions from three terrestrial pathways, which we refer to as riparian quickflow, subsurface quickflow, and slow-flow groundwater. The pathway discharges were used as input to a mixing model that closely approximated sub-hourly streamwater DOC concentrations as measured with the FDOM sensors. Subsurface quickflow, comprised of pre-event water, was the leading contributor to streamwater DOC fluxes, while riparian quickflow, comprised of event water, was the second-leading contributor to streamwater DOC fluxes, despite comprising the smallest proportion of streamflow yield among the three end-member pathways. Fixed-effects regression analysis revealed that the relationship between DOC fluxes from the end-member pathways and event magnitude was consistent across the four watersheds. This analysis also showed that DOC fluxes from the quickflow pathways increased significantly with temperature and varied inversely, but weakly, with catchment antecedent wetness. We believe that our approach, which leverages in-stream sensors that enable high-frequency measurements over extended periods, may be applicable for evaluating controls on DOC export from other watersheds within and beyond our study region.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS2019

Remote sensing of river bathymetry: Evaluating a range of sensors, platforms, and algorithms on the upper Sacramento River, California, USA

Remote sensing has become an increasingly viable tool for characterizing fluvial systems. In this study, we used field measurements from a 1.6 km reach of the upper Sacramento River, CA, to evaluate the potential of mapping water depths from a range of platforms, sensors, and depth retrieval methods. Field measurements of water column optical properties also were compared to similar data sets from other rivers to provide context for our results. We considered field spectra, a multispectral satellite image, hyperspectral data collected from conventional and unmanned aircraft, and a bathymetric LiDAR and applied a generalized version of Optimal Band Ratio Analysis (OBRA) and the K nearest neighbors regression (KNN) machine learning algorithm. Linear, quadratic, exponential, power, and lowess OBRA models enabled more flexible curve-fitting in calibrating spectrally based quantities to depth; an exponential formulation avoided artifacts associated with other model types. KNN increased observed vs. predicted R2 values, particularly for the satellite image; we also found that pre-processing of satellite images was unnecessary and that a basic data product could be used for depth retrieval. Bathymetric LiDAR was highly accurate and precise in shallow water, but a lack of bottom returns from areas greater than 2 m deep resulted in large gaps in coverage. The maximum detectable depth imposes an important constraint on fluvial remote sensing and a hybrid approach combined with field surveys of deep areas might be a more realistic operational strategy for bathymetric mapping. Future work will focus on scaling up from short reaches to long river segments.

California↗
USGS2009

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO 2 fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO 2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO 2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO 2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2013

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Context-dependent planktivory: interacting effects of turbidity and predation risk on adaptive foraging

By shaping species interactions, adaptive phenotypic plasticity can profoundly influence ecosystems. Predicting such outcomes has proven difficult, however, owing in part to the dependence of plasticity on the environmental context. Of particular relevance are environmental factors that affect sensory performance in organisms in ways that alter the tradeoffs associated with adaptive phenotypic responses. We explored the influence of turbidity, which simultaneously and differentially affects the sensory performance of consumers at multiple trophic levels, on the indirect effect of a top predator (piscivorous fish) on a basal prey resource (zooplankton) that is mediated through changes in the plastic foraging behavior of an intermediate consumer (zooplanktivorous fish). We first generated theoretical predictions of the adaptive foraging response of a zooplanktivore across wide gradients of turbidity and predation risk by a piscivore. Our model predicted that predation risk can change the negative relationship between intermediate consumer foraging and turbidity into a humped-shaped (unimodal) one in which foraging is low in both clear and highly turbid conditions due to foraging-related risk and visual constraints, respectively. Consequently, the positive trait-mediated indirect effect (TMIE) of the top predator on the basal resource is predicted to peak at low turbidity and decline thereafter until it reaches an asymptote of zero at intermediate turbidity levels (when foraging equals that which is predicted when the top predator is absent). We used field observations and a laboratory experiment to test our model predictions. In support, we found humped-shaped relationships between planktivory and turbidity for several zooplanktivorous fishes from diverse freshwater ecosystems with predation risk. Further, our experiment demonstrated that predation risk reduced zooplanktivory by yellow perch (Perca flavescens) at a low turbidity, but had no effect on consumption at an intermediate turbidity. Together, our theoretical and empirical findings show how the environmental context can govern the strength of TMIEs by influencing consumer sensory performance and how these effects can become realized in nature over wide environmental gradients. Additionally, our hump-shaped foraging curve represents an important departure from the conventional view of turbidity's effect on planktivorous fishes, thus potentially requiring a reconceptualization of turbidity's impact on aquatic food-web interactions.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2022

Implementing landscape connectivity with topographic filtering model: A simulation of suspended sediment delivery in an agricultural watershed

The widespread availability of high-fidelity topography combined with advances in geospatial analysis offer the opportunity to reimagine approaches to the difficult problem of predicting sediment delivery from watersheds. Here we present a model that uses high-resolution topography to filter sediment sources to quantify sediment delivery to the watershed outlet. It is a reduced-complexity, top-down model that defines transfer functions—topographic filters—between spatially distributed sediment sources and spatially integrated sediment delivery. The goal of the model is to forecast changes in watershed suspended sediment delivery in response to spatially distributed changes in sediment source magnitude or delivery, whether a result of watershed drivers or intentional management actions. Such an application requires the context of a watershed model that accounts for all sediment sources, enforces sediment mass balance throughout the spatial domain, and accommodates sediment storage and delivery over time. The model is developed for a HUC-8 watershed with a flat upland dominated by corn-soybean agriculture and deeply incised valleys near the watershed outlet with large sediment contributions from near-channel sources. Topofilter computes delivery and storage of field-derived sediment according to its spatial and structural connectivity to the stream channel network; subsequently, delivery of both field- and near-channel-derived sediment along with floodplain storage are computed in the stream channel network to the watershed outlet. The model outputs provide a spatially rich representation of sediment delivery and storage on field and along the stream that is consistent with available independent information on sediment accumulations and fluxes. Rather than a single best-calibrated solution, Topofilter uses the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimate (GLUE) approach to develop many possible solutions with sediment delivery rates expressed as probability distributions across the watershed. The ensemble of simulation outputs provides a useful basis for estimating uncertainty in sediment delivery and the effectiveness of different landscape management allocation across a watershed.

Minnesota↗
USGS2004

Ship Shoal as a prospective borrow site for barrier island restoration, coastal south-central Louisiana, Usa: Numerical wave modeling and field measurements of hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Ship Shoal, a transgressive sand body located at the 10 m isobath off south-central Louisiana, is deemed a potential sand source for restoration along the rapidly eroding Isles Dernieres barrier chain and possibly other sites in Louisiana. Through numerical wave modeling we evaluate the potential response of mining Ship Shoal on the wave field. During severe and strong storms, waves break seaward of the western flank of Ship Shoal. Therefore, removal of Ship Shoal (approximately 1.1 billion m 3 ) causes a maximum increase of the significant wave height by 90%–100% and 40%–50% over the shoal and directly adjacent to the lee of the complex for two strong storm scenarios. During weak storms and fair weather conditions, waves do not break over Ship Shoal. The degree of increase in significant wave height due to shoal removal is considerably smaller, only 10%–20% on the west part of the shoal. Within the context of increasing nearshore wave energy levels, removal of the shoal is not significant enough to cause increased erosion along the Isles Dernieres. Wave approach direction exerts significant control on the wave climate leeward of Ship Shoal for stronger storms, but not weak storms or fairweather. Instrumentation deployed at the shoal allowed comparison of measured wave heights with numerically derived wave heights using STWAVE. Correlation coefficients are high in virtually all comparisons indicating the capability of the model to simulate wave behavior satisfactorily at the shoal. Directional waves, currents and sediment transport were measured during winter storms associated with frontal passages using three bottom-mounted arrays deployed on the seaward and landward sides of Ship Shoal (November, 1998–January, 1999). Episodic increases in wave height, mean and oscillatory current speed, shear velocity, and sediment transport rates, associated with recurrent cold front passages, were measured. Dissipation mechanisms included both breaking and bottom friction due to variable depths across the shoal crest and variable wave amplitudes during storms and fair-weather. Arctic surge fronts were associated with southerly storm waves, and southwesterly to westerly currents and sediment transport. Migrating cyclonic fronts generated northerly swell that transformed into southerly sea, and currents and sediment transport that were southeasterly overall. Waves were 36% higher and 9% longer on the seaward side of the shoal, whereas mean currents were 10% stronger landward, where they were directed onshore, in contrast to the offshore site, where seaward currents predominated. Sediment transport initiated by cold fronts was generally directed southeasterly to south-westerly at the offshore site, and southerly to westerly at the nearshore site. The data suggest that both cold fronts and the shoal, exert significant influences on regional hydrodynamics and sediment transport.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2013

Comparison of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from watersheds draining the Bay Area and the Central Valley of California

Quantifying suspended sediment loads is important for managing the world's estuaries in the context of navigation, pollutant transport, wetland restoration, and coastal erosion. To address these needs, a comprehensive analysis was completed on sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from fluvial sources. Suspended sediment, optical backscatter, velocity data near the head of the estuary, and discharge data obtained from the output of a water balance model were used to generate continuous suspended sediment concentration records and compute loads to the Bay from the large Central Valley watershed. Sediment loads from small tributary watersheds around the Bay were determined using 235 station-years of suspended sediment data from 38 watershed locations, regression analysis, and simple modeling. Over 16 years, net annual suspended sediment load to the head of the estuary from its 154,000 km 2 Central Valley watershed varied from 0.13 to 2.58 (mean = 0.89) million metric t of suspended sediment, or an average yield of 11 metric t/km 2 /yr. Small tributaries, totaling 8145 km 2 , in the nine-county Bay Area discharged between 0.081 and 4.27 (mean = 1.39) million metric t with a mean yield of 212 metric t/km 2 /yr. The results indicate that the hundreds of urbanized and tectonically active tributaries adjacent to the Bay, which together account for just 5% of the total watershed area draining to the Bay and provide just 7% of the annual average fluvial flow, supply 61% of the suspended sediment. The small tributary loads are more variable (53-fold between years compared to 21-fold for the inland Central Valley rivers) and dominated fluvial sediment supply to the Bay during 10 out of 16 yr. If San Francisco Bay is typical of other estuaries in active tectonic or climatically variable coastal regimes, managers responsible for water quality, dredging and reusing sediment accumulating in shipping channels, or restoring wetlands in the world's estuaries may need to more carefully account for proximal small urbanized watersheds that may dominate sediment supply.

California↗
USGS1974

Estimating the “thickness” of the Boulder Batholith, Montana, from heat-flow and heat-productivity data

Estimates of minimum thickness of the Boulder batholith, computed using the linear relation between heat flow and heat productivity and assuming constant heat productivity with depth, are highly nonspecific. They can vary between about 3 and 20 km, depending on values of surface-rock heat productivity and values of assumed contribution of nonbatholith heat sources (such as lower crustal and upper mantle) to the measured surface heat flow used in the calculations. Models involving radiogenic heat sources decreasing with depth in the batholith lead to significantly greater estimates of thickness by as much as a factor of two or more. A reappraisal of data and arguments related to earlier conflicting estimates, based only on one heat-flow determination and within the context of several newly published additional heat-flow measurements, indicates that the previous differences of opinion are negligible and acceptable, in view of the enormous uncertainties inherent in the method of estimation.

Geology↗
USGS2016

Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Ecology↗
USGS2004

Status assessment and conservation plan for the yellow-billed loon (Gavia adamsii)

Because of its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding habitat, the Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is a species of conservation concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the subject of a petition for listing under the Endangered Species Act. This Status Assessment synthesizes current information on population size, trends, and potential threats to Yellow-billed Loons, and the Conservation Plan identifies research and monitoring activities that would contribute to the conservation of this species. The preparation of this report was requested and funded by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Nongame Bird Office, Region 7.The Status Assessment and Conservation Plan for the Yellow-billed Loon can be summarized as follows:? Northern Alaska breeding grounds support an average of 3,369 individuals, including <1,000 nesting pairs in most years. The Yellow-billed Loon ranks as one of the 10 rarest birds that breeds regularly within the main land U.S. and one of only 20 with a North American population <16,000 individuals (Section 6-E).? There is no evidence of a long-term trend in the Yellow-billed Loon population index since 1986 (-0.9% annual change), but interpretation of surveys is complicated by changes in observers and high annual variation, and the 95% confidence interval is large (-3.6% to +1.8% annual change). The low reproductive potential of Yellow-billed Loons suggests that recovery from a substantial decline would not occur rapidly. There are no systematic surveys of Canadian and Russian breeding populations (Section 6-F).? The expansion of the oil industry into prime Yellow-billed Loon breeding habitat is a recent occurrence and we lack the necessary information to accurately predict its effect on the population. Most of northern Alaska?s Yellow-billed Loons (91%) occur on the National Petroleum Reserve?Alaska, virtually all of which is open or proposed to be opened to development and where there is no permanent or legal protection of Yellow-billed Loon habitat (Section 7-A).? Other potential factors affecting the population are also addressed, such as contaminants, subsistence hunting, by catch in subsistence and commercial fisheries on the breeding and wintering grounds, and health of the marine ecosystem off the coast of East Asia where Alaska?s Yellow-billed Loons winter, but data are lacking to reach strong conclusions on most issues.? The conservation goal adopted by the Alaska Loon and Grebe Working Group for the Yellow-billed Loon is to maintain a stable breeding population, of current size and distribution, across the extent of the loon?s breeding range in Alaska. The Conservation Plan, designed to provide information necessary to meet this goal, puts forth seven objectives: 1) Conduct annual population surveys having negligible bias and 80% statistical power to detect a 3.4% annual decline, a decline that would result in a 50% loss of the population within 20 years; 2) Obtain an unbiased and reliable estimate of the size of Alaska?s breeding population; 3) Identify geographic regions and habitats of importance during breeding, staging, and wintering periods; 4) Use demographic models to evaluate risks to the population; 5) Identify potential effects of oil development on the breeding grounds and measures necessary to minimize the effects; 6) Evaluate the magnitude of subsistence harvest and by catch and their potential effects on the population; 7) Develop a continent-wide and range-wide context for Alaska?s population and habitat objectives.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Terrestrial ecological risk analysis via dietary exposure at uranium mine sites in the Grand Canyon watershed (Arizona, USA)

The U.S. Department of the Interior recently included uranium (U) on a list of mineral commodities that are considered critical to economic and national security. The uses of U for commercial and residential energy production, defense applications, medical device technologies, and energy generation for space vehicles and satellites are known, but the environmental impacts of uranium extraction are not always well quantified. We conducted a screening-level ecological risk analysis based on exposure to mining-related elements via diets and incidental soil ingestion for terrestrial biota to provide context to chemical characterization and exposures at breccia pipe U mines in northern Arizona. Relative risks, calculated as hazard quotients (HQs), were generally low for all biological receptor models. Our models screened for risk to omnivores and insectivores (HQs>1) but not herbivores and carnivores. Uranium was not the driver of ecological risk; arsenic, cadmium, copper, and zinc were of concern for biota consuming ground-dwelling invertebrates. Invertebrate species composition should be considered when applying these models to other mining locations or future sampling at the breccia pipe mine sites. Dietary concentration thresholds (DCTs) were also calculated to understand food concentrations that may lead to ecological risk. The DCTs indicated that critical concentrations were not approached in our model scenarios, as evident in the very low HQs for most models. The DCTs may be used by natural resource and land managers as well as mine operators to screen or monitor for potential risk to terrestrial receptors as mine sites are developed and remediated in the future.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Identifying climate-resistant vernal pools: Hydrologic refugia for amphibian reproduction under droughts and climate change

Vernal pools of the northeastern United States provide important breeding habitat for amphibians but may be sensitive to droughts and climate change. These seasonal wetlands typically fill by early spring and dry by mid-to-late summer. Because climate change may produce earlier and stronger growing-season evapotranspiration combined with increasing droughts and shifts in precipitation timing, management concerns include the possibility that some pools will increasingly become dry earlier in the year, potentially interfering with amphibian life-cycle completion. In this context, a subset of pools that continue to provide wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions might function as ecohydrologic refugia, potentially supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. We used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 449 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. Models were then used to generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time points, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Model outputs are available through a website allowing users to choose the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify which pools may be most likely to function as ecohydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2015

“All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful”

Building a new model, especially one used for policy purposes, takes considerable time, effort, and resources. In justifying such expenditures, one inevitably spends a lot of time denigrating previous models. For example, in pitching the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) ( http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3 ), criticisms of the previous model included fault‐segmentation assumptions and the lack of multifault ruptures. In the context of including spatiotemporal clustering for operational earthquake forecasting (e.g., Jordan et al. , 2011 ), another criticism has been that previous candidate models not only ignore elastic rebound but also produce results that are antithetical to that theory. For instance, the short‐term earthquake probabilities model ( Gerstenberger et al. , 2005 ), which provided California aftershock hazard maps at the U.S. Geological Survey web site between 2005 and 2010, implies that the time of highest likelihood for any rupture will be the moment after it occurs, even for a big one on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations imply that excluding elastic rebound in such models also produces unrealistic triggering statistics ( Field, 2012 ).

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2012

USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network 2009 (HCDN-2009)

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) is a subset of all USGS streamgages for which the streamflow primarily reflects prevailing meteorological conditions for specified years. These stations were screened to exclude sites where human activities, such as artificial diversions, storage, and other activities in the drainage basin or the stream channel, affect the natural flow of the watercourse. In addition, sites were included in the network because their record length was sufficiently long for analysis of patterns in streamflow over time. The purpose of the network is to provide a streamflow dataset suitable for analyzing hydrologic variations and trends in a climatic context. When originally published, the network was composed of 1,659 stations (Slack and Landwehr, 1992) for which the years of primarily "natural" flow were identified. Since then data from the HCDN have been widely used and cited in climate-related hydrologic investigations of the United States. The network has also served as a model for establishing climate-sensitive streamgage networks in other countries around the world. After nearly two decades of use without undergoing a systematic revalidation, questions have arisen as to whether many of the original stations still maintain their climate-sensitive status or even remain operational, as some are known to have closed. Some watersheds had been altered to the point that stations no longer meet the minimal disturbance criteria set forth in the original HCDN report. In addition, some sites that did not qualify as HCDN sites in 1988 (the last year of data evaluation) because their records were too short now have sufficiently long streamflow records for climate-sensitivity studies. Accordingly, a review of the existing network was initiated in 2009 in order to drop old stations and add new ones as appropriate.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2002

Weighting observations in the context of calibrating groundwater models

This paper investigates four issues related to weighting observations in the context of groundwater models calibrated with nonlinear regression: (a) terminology, (b) determining values for the weighting, (c) measurement and model errors, and (4) the effect weighting can have on the accuracy of calibrated models and measures of uncertainty. It is shown that the confusing aspects of weighting can be managed, and are not a practical barrier to using regression methods.

IAHS-AISH Publication↗
USGS2016

Survival estimates for reintroduced populations of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis )

Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts.

Copeia↗
USGS2010

Geochemical evolution of a high arsenic, alkaline pit-lake in the Mother Lode Gold District, California

The Harvard orebody at the Jamestown gold mine, located along the Melones fault zone in the southern Mother Lode gold district, California, was mined in an open-pit operation from 1987 to 1994. Dewatering during mining produced a hydrologic cone of depression; recovery toward the premining ground-water configuration produced a monomictic pit lake with alkaline Ca-Mg-HCO 3 -SO 4 –type pit water, concentrations of As up to 1,200 μ g/L, and total dissolved solids (TDS) up to 2,000 mg/L. In this study, pit-wall rocks were mapped and chemically analyzed to provide a context for evaluating observed variability in the composition of the pit-lake waters in relationship to seasonal weather patterns. An integrated hydrogeochemical model of pit-lake evolution based on observations of pit-lake volume, water composition (samples collected between 1998–2000, 2004), and processes occurring on pit walls was developed in three stages using the computer code PHREEQC. Stage 1 takes account of seasonally variable water fluxes from precipitation, evaporation, springs, and ground water, as well as lake stratification and mixing processes. Stage 2 adds CO 2 fluxes and wall-rock interactions, and stage 3 assesses the predictive capability of the model. Two major geologic units in fault contact comprise the pit walls. The hanging wall is composed of interlayered slate, metavolcanic and metavolcaniclastic rocks, and schists; the footwall rocks are chlorite-actinolite and talc-tremolite schists generated by metasomatism of greenschist-facies mafic and ultramafic igneous rocks. Alteration in the ore zone provides evidence for mineralizing fluids that introduced CO 2 , S, and K 2 O, and redistributed SiO 2 . Arsenian pyrite associated with the alteration weathers to produce goethite and jarosite on pit walls and in joints, as well as copiapite and hexahydrite efflorescences that accumulate on wall-rock faces during dry California summers. All of these pyrite weathering products incorporate arsenic at concentrations from <100 up to 1,200 ppm. In the pit lake, pH and TDS reach seasonal highs in the summer epilimnion; pH is lowest in the summer hypolimnion. Arsenic and bicarbonate covary in the hypolimnion, rising as stratification proceeds and declining during winter rains. The computational model suggests that water fluxes alone do not account for this seasonal variability. Loss of CO 2 to the atmosphere, interaction with pit walls including washoff of efflorescent salts during the first flush and seasonal rainfall, and arsenic sorption appear to contribute to the observed pit-lake characteristics.

California↗