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USGS2022

Integrated assessment of chemical and biological recovery after diversion and treatment of acid mine drainage in a Rocky Mountain stream

Responses of stream ecosystems to gradual reductions in metal loading following remediation or restoration activities have been well documented in the literature. However, much less is known about how these systems respond to the immediate or more rapid elimination of metal inputs. Construction of a water treatment plant on the North Fork of Clear Creek (NFCC; CO, USA), a US Environmental Protection Agency Superfund site, captured, diverted, and treated the two major point-source inputs of acid mine drainage (AMD) and provided an opportunity to investigate immediate improvements in water quality. We conducted a 9-year study that included intensive within- and among-year monitoring of receiving-stream chemistry and benthic communities before and after construction of the treatment plant. Results showed a 64%–86% decrease in metal concentrations within months at the most contaminated sites. Benthic communities responded with increased abundance and diversity, but downstream stations remained impaired relative to reference conditions, with significantly lower taxonomic richness represented by a few dominant taxa (i.e., Baetis sp., Hydropsyche sp., Simulium sp., Orthocladiinae). Elevated metal concentrations from apparent residual sources, and relatively high conductivity from contributing major ions not removed during the treatment process, are likely limiting downstream recovery. Our study demonstrates that direct AMD treatment can rapidly improve water quality and benefit aquatic life, but effectiveness is limited, in part, to the extent that inputs of metals are captured and treated. Consideration should also be given to the effects of elevated major ion concentrations from the treated effluent not removed during the lime treatment process. Continued chemical and biological monitoring will be needed to quantify the NFCC recovery trajectory and to inform future remediation strategies.

Colorado↗

USGS2015

Groundwater: The disregarded component in lake water and nutrient budgets, Part 1: Effects of groundwater on hydrology

Lake eutrophication is a large and growing problem in many parts of the world, commonly due to anthropogenic sources of nutrients. Improved quantification of nutrient inputs is required to address this problem, including better determination of exchanges between groundwater and lakes. This first of a two-part review provides a brief history of the evolution of the study of groundwater exchange with lakes, followed by a listing of the most commonly used methods for quantifying this exchange. Rates of exchange between lakes and groundwater compiled from the literature are statistically summarized for both exfiltration (flow from groundwater to a lake) and infiltration (flow from a lake to groundwater), including per cent contribution of groundwater to lake-water budgets. Reported rates of exchange between groundwater and lakes span more than five orders of magnitude. Median exfiltration is 0.74 cm/day, and median infiltration is 0.60 cm/day. Exfiltration ranges from near 0% to 94% of input terms in lake-water budgets, and infiltration ranges from near 0% to 91% of loss terms. Median values for exfiltration and infiltration as percentages of input and loss terms of lake-water budgets are 25% and 35%, respectively. Quantification of the groundwater term is somewhat method dependent, indicating that calculating the groundwater component with multiple methods can provide a better understanding of the accuracy of estimates. The importance of exfiltration to a lake budget ranges widely for lakes less than about 100 ha in area but generally decreases with increasing lake area, particularly for lakes that exceed 100 ha in area. No such relation is evident for lakes where infiltration occurs, perhaps because of the smaller sample size. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2015

Blind identification of the Millikan Library from earthquake data considering soil–structure interaction

The Robert A. Millikan Library is a reinforced concrete building with a basement level and nine stories above the ground. Located on the campus of California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena California, it is among the most densely instrumented buildings in the U.S. From the early dates of its construction, it has been the subject of many investigations, especially regarding soil–structure interaction effects. It is well accepted that the structure is significantly interacting with the surrounding soil, which implies that the true foundation input motions cannot be directly recorded during earthquakes because of inertial effects. Based on this limitation, input–output modal identification methods are not applicable to this soil–structure system. On the other hand, conventional output-only methods are typically based on the unknown input signals to be stationary whitenoise, which is not the case for earthquake excitations. Through the use of recently developed blind identification (i.e. output-only) methods, it has become possible to extract such information from only the response signals because of earthquake excitations. In the present study, we employ such a blind identification method to extract the modal properties of the Millikan Library. We present some modes that have not been identified from force vibration tests in several studies to date. Then, to quantify the contribution of soil–structure interaction effects, we first create a detailed Finite Element (FE) model using available information about the superstructure; and subsequently update the soil–foundation system's dynamic stiffnesses at each mode such that the modal properties of the entire soil–structure system agree well with those obtained via output-only modal identification.

California↗

USGS2016

Patterns and controls on nitrogen cycling of biological soil crusts

Biocrusts play a significant role in the nitrogen [N ] cycle within arid and semi-arid ecosystems, as they contribute major N inputs via biological fixation and dust capture, harbor internal N transformation processes, and direct N losses via N dissolved, gaseous and erosional loss processes (Fig. 1). Because soil N availability in arid and semi-arid ecosystems is generally low and may limit net primary production (NPP), especially during periods when adequate water is available, understanding the mechanisms and controls of N input and loss pathways in biocrusts is critically important to our broader understanding of N cycling in dryland environments. In particular, N cycling by biocrusts likely regulates short-term soil N availability to support vascular plant growth, as well as long-term N accumulation and maintenance of soil fertility. In this chapter, we review the influence of biocrust nutrient input, internal cycling, and loss pathways across a range of biomes. We examine linkages between N fixation capabilities of biocrust organisms and spatio-temporal patterns of soil N availability that may influence the longer-term productivity of dryland ecosystems. Lastly, biocrust influence on N loss pathways such as N gas loss, leakage of N compounds from biocrusts, and transfer in wind and water erosion are important to understand the maintenance of dryland soil fertility over longer time scales. Although great strides have been made in understanding the influence of biocrusts on ecosystem N cycling, there are important knowledge gaps in our understanding of the influence of biocrusts on ecosystem N cycling that should be the focus of future studies. Because work on the interaction of N cycling and biocrusts was reviewed in Belnap and Lange (2003), this chapter will focus primarily on research findings that have emerged over the last 15 years (2000-2015).

Book chapter↗

USGS1995

Hydrological and thermal response of lakes to climate: Description and modeling

Lake systems continually respond to climatic conditions that vary over broad scales of space and time. The spatial distribution of lakes on the Earth’s surface is indicative of long-term patterns of atmospheric circulation, and the annual cycle of climate over lake basins is reflected in seasonal change in the size and temperature of lakes. Lake size is determined by the balance of water inputs and outputs, and lake temperature is governed by the balance of heat inputs and outputs. The lake hydrological and energy balances are coupled to the atmosphere. In response to the inputs of mass, energy, and momentum (precipitation, radiation, and wind stress), lakes return heat and moisture to the atmosphere through conduction and evaporation. Global, regional, or local change in the hydrological or thermal states of lakes thus represent interactive responses to climatic variation in the supply of water and energy.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

The influence of hydrology on lacustrine sediment contaminant records

The way water flows to a lake, through streams, as runoff, or as groundwater, can control the distribution and mass of sediment and contaminants deposited. Whether a lake is large or small, deep or shallow, open or closed, the movement of water to a lake and the circulation patterns of water within a lake control how and where sediment and contaminants are deposited. Particle-associated contaminants may stay close to the input source of contamination or be transported by currents to bathymetric lows. A complex morphology of the lake bottom or shoreline can also affect how contaminants will be distributed. Dissolved contaminants may be widely dispersed in smaller lakes, but may be diluted in large lakes away from the source. Although dissolved contaminants may not be deposited in lake sediments, the impact of dissolved contaminants (such as nitrogen) may be reflected by the ecosystem. For instance, increased phosphorus and nitrogen may increase organic content or algal biomass, and contribute to eutrophication of the lake over time. Changes in oxidation-reduction potential at the sediment-water interface may either release some contaminants to the water column or conversely deposit other contaminants to the sediment depending on the compound’s chemical characteristics. Changes in land use generally affect the hydrology of the watershed surrounding a lake, providing more runoff if soil binding vegetation is removed or if more impervious cover (roads and buildings) is increased. Groundwater inputs may change if pumping of the aquifer connected to the lake occurs. Even if groundwater is only a small portion of the volume of water entering a lake, if contaminant concentrations in the aquifer are high compared to surface water inputs, the mass of contaminants from groundwater may be as, or more, important than surface water contributions.

Book chapter↗

USGS1987

Concentration and flux of solutes from snow and forest floor during snowmelt in the West-Central Adirondack region of New York

Decreases in pH and increases in the concentration of Al and NO3- have been observed in surface waters draining acid-sensitive regions in the northeastern U.S. during spring snowmelt. To assess the source of this acidity, we evaluated solute concentrations in snowpack, and in meltwater collected from snow and forest floor lysimeters in the west-central Adirondack Mountains of New York during the spring snowmelt period, 29 March through 15 April 1984. During the initial phase of snowmelt, ions were preferentially leached from the snowpack resulting in elevated concentrations in snowmelt water (e.g. H+ = 140 ??eq.l-1; NO42- = 123 ??eq.l-1; SO3- = 160 ??eq.l-1). Solute concentrations decreased dramatically within a few days of the initial melt (< 50 ??eq.l-1). The concentrations of SO42- and NO3- in snowpack and snowmelt water were similar, whereas NO-3 in the forest floor leachate was at least two times the concentration of SO42-. Study results suggest that the forest floor was a sink for snowmelt inputs of alkalinity, and a net source of H+, NO3-, dissolved organic carbon, K+ and Al inputs to the mineral soil. The forest floor was relatively conservative with respect to snowmelt inputs of Ca2+, SO42- and Cl-. These results indicate that mineralization of N, followed by nitrification in the forest floor may be an important process contributing to elevated concentrations of H+ and NO3- in streams during the snowmelt period. ?? 1987 Martinus Nijhoff/Dr W. Junk Publishers.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2015

Response to "Comment on and Reinterpretation of Gabriel et al. (2014) "Fish Mercury and Surface Water Sulfate Relationships in the Everglades Protection Area""

The purpose of this forum is to respond to a rebuttal submitted by Julian et al., Environ Manag 55:1–5, 2015 where they outlined their overall disagreement with the data preparation, methods, and interpretation of results presented in Gabriel et al. (Environ Manag 53:583–593, 2014 ). Here, we provide background information on the research premise presented in Gabriel et al. (Environ Manag 53:583–593, 2014 ) and provide a defense for this work using five themes. In spite of what Julian et al. perceive as limitations in the sampling methods and analytical tools used for this work, the relationships found between fish total mercury and surface water sulfate concentrations in Gabriel et al. (Environ Manag 53:583–593, 2014 ) are comparable to relationships between pore water methylmercury (MeHg) and pore water sulfate found in past studies indicating that sulfate is important to MeHg production and bioaccumulation in the Everglades. Julian et al. state “…there is no way to justify any ecosystem-wide sulfur strategy as a management approach to reduce mercury risk in the (Everglades) as suggested by Gabriel et al. (Environ Manag 53:583–593, 2014 ), Corrales et al. (Sci Tot Environ 409:2156–2162, 2011 ) and Orem et al. (Rev Environ Sci Technol 41 (S1):249–288, 2011 ).” We disagree, and having stated why sulfate input reduction to the Everglades may be the most effective means of reducing mercury in Everglades fish, it is important that research on sulfur and mercury biogeochemistry continues. If further studies support the relationship between sulfate loading reduction and MeHg reduction, sulfur mass balance studies should commence to (1) better quantify agricultural and connate seawater sulfate inputs and (2) define opportunities to reduce sulfate inputs to the Everglades ecosystem.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2014

Historic impact of watershed change and sedimentation to reefs along west-central Guam

Using coral growth parameters (extension, density, calcification rates, and luminescence) and geochemical measurements (barium to calcium rations; Ba/Ca) from coral cores collected in west-central Guam, we provide a historic perspective on sediment input to coral reefs adjacent to the Piti-Asan watershed. The months of August through December are dominated by increased coral Ba/Ca values, corresponding to the rainy season. With river water enriched in barium related to nearshore seawater, coral Ba/Ca ratios are presented as a proxy for input of fine-grained terrigenous sediment to the nearshore environment. The century-long Ba/Ca coral record indicates that the Asan fore reef is within the zone of impact from discharged sediments transported from the Piti-Asan watershed and has experienced increased terrestrial sedimentation since the 1940s. This abrupt shift in sedimentation occurred at the same time as both the sudden denudation of the landscape by military ordinance and the immediate subsequent development of the Asan area through the end of the war, from 1944 through 1945. In response to rapid input of sediment, as determined from coral Ba/Ca values, coral growth rates were reduced for almost two decades, while calcification rates recovered much more quickly. Furthermore, coral luminescence is decoupled from the Ba/Ca record, which is consistent with degradation of soil organic matter through disturbance by forest fires, suggesting a potential index of fire history and degradation of soil organic matter. These patterns were not seen in the cores from nearby reefs associated with watersheds that have not undergone the same degree of landscape denudation. Taken together, these records provide a valuable tool for understanding the compounding effects of land-use change on coral reef health.

Agat Bay;Apra Harbor;Asan Bay↗

USGS2014

Ecological consequences of the expansion of N 2 -fixing plants in cold biomes

Research in warm-climate biomes has shown that invasion by symbiotic dinitrogen (N 2 )-fixing plants can transform ecosystems in ways analogous to the transformations observed as a consequence of anthropogenic, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition: declines in biodiversity, soil acidification, and alterations to carbon and nutrient cycling, including increased N losses through nitrate leaching and emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Here, we used literature review and case study approaches to assess the evidence for similar transformations in cold-climate ecosystems of the boreal, subarctic and upper montane-temperate life zones. Our assessment focuses on the plant genera Lupinus and Alnus , which have become invasive largely as a consequence of deliberate introductions and/or reduced land management. These cold biomes are commonly located in remote areas with low anthropogenic N inputs, and the environmental impacts of N 2 -fixer invasion appear to be as severe as those from anthropogenic N deposition in highly N polluted areas. Hence, inputs of N from N 2 fixation can affect ecosystems as dramatically or even more strongly than N inputs from atmospheric deposition, and biomes in cold climates represent no exception with regard to the risk of being invaded by N 2 -fixing species. In particular, the cold biomes studied here show both a strong potential to be transformed by N 2 -fixing plants and a rapid subsequent saturation in the ecosystem’s capacity to retain N. Therefore, analogous to increases in N deposition, N 2 -fixing plant invasions must be deemed significant threats to biodiversity and to environmental quality.

Oecologia↗

USGS2021

Muted responses to chronic experimental nitrogen deposition on the Colorado Plateau

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is significantly altering both community structure and ecosystem processes in terrestrial ecosystems across the globe. However, our understanding of the consequences of N deposition in dryland systems remains relatively poor, despite evidence that drylands may be particularly vulnerable to increasing N inputs. In this study, we investigated the influence of 7 years of multiple levels of simulated N deposition (0, 2, 5, and 8 kg N ha −1 year −1 ) on plant community structure and biological soil crust (biocrust) cover at three semi-arid grassland sites spanning a soil texture gradient. Biocrusts are a surface community of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and/or algae, and have been shown to be sensitive to N inputs. We hypothesized that N additions would decrease plant diversity, increase abundance of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum, and decrease biocrust cover. Contrary to our expectations, we found that N additions did not affect plant diversity or B. tectorum abundance. In partial support of our hypotheses, N additions negatively affected biocrust cover in some years, perhaps driven in part by inter-annual differences in precipitation. Soil inorganic N concentrations showed rapid but ephemeral responses to N additions and plant foliar N concentrations showed no response, indicating that the magnitude of plant and biocrust responses to N fertilization may be buffered by endogenous N cycling. More work is needed to determine N critical load thresholds for plant community and biocrust dynamics in semi-arid systems and the factors that determine the fate of N inputs.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2012

Hydrogeomorphology influences soil nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization in floodplain wetlands

Conceptual models of river–floodplain systems and biogeochemical theory predict that floodplain soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mineralization should increase with hydrologic connectivity to the river and thus increase with distance downstream (longitudinal dimension) and in lower geomorphic units within the floodplain (lateral dimension). We measured rates of in situ soil net ammonification, nitrification, N, and P mineralization using monthly incubations of modified resin cores for a year in the forested floodplain wetlands of Difficult Run, a fifth order urban Piedmont river in Virginia, USA. Mineralization rates were then related to potentially controlling ecosystem attributes associated with hydrologic connectivity, soil characteristics, and vegetative inputs. Ammonification and P mineralization were greatest in the wet backswamps, nitrification was greatest in the dry levees, and net N mineralization was greatest in the intermediately wet toe-slopes. Nitrification also was greater in the headwater sites than downstream sites, whereas ammonification was greater in downstream sites. Annual net N mineralization increased with spatial gradients of greater ammonium loading to the soil surface associated with flooding, soil organic and nutrient content, and herbaceous nutrient inputs. Annual net P mineralization was associated negatively with soil pH and coarser soil texture, and positively with ammonium and phosphate loading to the soil surface associated with flooding. Within an intensively sampled low elevation flowpath at one site, sediment deposition during individual incubations stimulated mineralization of N and P. However, the amount of N and P mineralized in soil was substantially less than the amount deposited with sedimentation. In summary, greater inputs of nutrients and water and storage of soil nutrients along gradients of river–floodplain hydrologic connectivity increased floodplain soil nutrient mineralization rates.

Maryl;Virginia↗

USGS2019

Isotopic evidence that nitrogen enrichment intensifies nitrogen losses to the atmosphere from subtropical mangroves

Nitrogen (N) enrichment can have large effects on mangroves’ capacity to provide critical ecosystem services by affecting fundamental functions such as N cycling and primary productivity. However, our understanding of excess N input effects on N cycling in mangroves remains quite limited. To advance our understanding of how N enrichment via water or air pollution affects mangroves, we evaluated whether increasing N inputs would decrease biological N fixation (BNF), but intensify N dynamics and N losses to the atmosphere in these systems. We measured N concentrations in sediment and vegetation, rates of BNF in sediment and litter, and net sediment ammonification and nitrification rates. We also evaluated long-term integrated N dynamics and N losses to the atmosphere using the natural abundance of N stable isotopes (δ 15 N) in the sediment–plant system and in estuarine water. We performed these analyses at non-N-enriched and N-enriched (that is, polluted) fringe and basin mangroves in southeastern Brazil. The δ 15 N in the sediment–plant system was higher at N-enriched than non-N-enriched fringe sites, indicating increased N losses to the atmosphere from N-enriched sites. However, N concentrations in sediment and vegetation were similar or lower at N-enriched relative to non-N-enriched sites. BNF and net ammonification and nitrification rates were also similar between N-enriched and non-N-enriched sites. Excess N inputs intensified N losses to the atmosphere from mangroves, but N pools, BNF, and net ammonification and nitrification rates were not affected by N enrichment, likely because excess N was quickly lost from the system by direct denitrification and volatilization.

São Paulo↗

USGS2019

The long-term effects of Hurricanes Wilma and Irma on soil elevation change in Everglades mangrove forests

Mangrove forests in the Florida Everglades (USA) are frequently affected by hurricanes that produce high-velocity winds, storm surge, and extreme rainfall, but also provide sediment subsidies that help mangroves adjust to sea-level rise. The long-term influence of hurricane sediment inputs on soil elevation dynamics in mangrove forests are not well understood. Here, we assessed the effects of sediment deposition during Hurricanes Wilma (2005) and Irma (2017) on soil elevation change at two mangrove forests located along the Shark and Lostmans Rivers in Everglades National Park. We used surface elevation change data from a sixteen-year period (2002-2018), measured with the surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach. At the Shark River mangrove forest, we used marker horizons and a combination of deep, shallow, and original SETs to quantify the contributions of four soil zones to net soil elevation change. Rates of elevation change were greatly influenced by storm sediments. Abrupt increases in elevation due to sediment inputs and subsurface expansion during Hurricane Wilma were followed by: (1) an initial post-hurricane period of elevation loss due to erosion of hurricane sediments and subsurface contraction; (2) a secondary period of elevation gain due primarily to accretion; and (3) an abrupt elevation gain due to new sediment inputs during Hurricane Irma. Our findings suggest that elevation change in hurricane-affected mangrove forests can be cyclical or include disjunct phases, which is critical information for advancing the understanding of wetland responses to accelerated sea-level rise given the expectation of increasing storm intensity due to climate change.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Nitrogen enrichment reduces nitrogen and phosphorus resorption through changes to species resorption and plant community composition

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition has affected plant community composition and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. This includes changes to the way plants use and recycle nutrients, including effects on nutrient resorption, which is a key process through which plants recover nutrients from tissue during senescence. Nutrient resorption has considerable adaptive and functional significance for plants and helps regulate core ecosystem processes such as decomposition. However, our understanding of how N deposition affects nutrient resorption and, in particular, of how N inputs alter ecosystem resorption via changes to existing species’ resorption compared with changes to community composition remains poor. To disentangle the role of species versus community composition controls driving variation in nutrient resorption responses to N inputs, we carried out an experiment with six different N addition rates in a temperate steppe. We found that species-scale nutrient resorption responses to N enrichment were variable; for example, only half of the measured species reduced both N and P resorption efficiency in response to increased N inputs. In contrast, community-scale responses consistently resulted in reduced N and P resorption. Still, N-induced changes in community composition were a weaker control on overall resorption responses than were the effects on individual species; however, it was the synergistic interaction between the two that resulted in the large total reductions of nutrient resorption in the face of increased N. Taken together, our results highlight that understanding and predicting nutrient resorption responses will be most accurately scaled by accounting not only for species’ reductions in resorption but also for changes in community composition.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2004

Geospatial data resampling and resolution effects on watershed modeling: A case study using the agricultural non-point source pollution model

Researchers have been coupling geographic information systems (GIS) data handling and processing capability to watershed and waterquality models for many years. This capability is suited for the development of databases appropriate for water modeling. However, it is rare for GIS to provide direct inputs to the models. To demonstrate the logical procedure of coupling GIS for model parameter extraction, we selected the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) pollution model. Investigators can generate data layers at various resolutions and resample to pixel sizes to support models at particular scales. We developed databases of elevation, land cover, and soils at various resolutions in four watersheds. The ability to use multiresolution databases for the generation of model parameters is problematic for grid-based models. We used database development procedures and observed the effects of resolution and resampling on GIS input datasets and parameters generated from those inputs for AGNPS. Results indicate that elevation values at specific points compare favorably between 3- and 30-m raster datasets. Categorical data analysis indicates that land cover classes vary significantly. Derived parameters parallel the results of the base GIS datasets. Analysis of data resampled from 30-m to 60-, 120-, 210-, 240-, 480-, 960-, and 1920-m pixels indicates a general degradation of both elevation and land cover correlations as resolution decreases. Initial evaluation of model output values for soluble nitrogen and phosphorous indicates similar degradation with resolution. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Journal of Geographical Systems↗

USGS2006

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

Landslides↗

USGS2015

Application of a process-based shallow landslide hazard model over a broad area in Central Italy

Process-based models are widely used for rainfall-induced shallow landslide forecasting. Previous studies have successfully applied the U.S. Geological Survey’s Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model (Baum et al. 2002 ) to compute infiltration-driven changes in the hillslopes’ factor of safety on small scales (i.e., tens of square kilometers). Soil data input for such models are difficult to obtain across larger regions. This work describes a novel methodology for the application of TRIGRS over broad areas with relatively uniform hydrogeological properties. The study area is a 550-km 2 region in Central Italy covered by post-orogenic Quaternary sediments. Due to the lack of field data, we assigned mechanical and hydrological property values through a statistical analysis based on literature review of soils matching the local lithologies. We calibrated the model using rainfall data from 25 historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. We compared the variation of pressure head and factor of safety with the landslide occurrence to identify the best fitting input conditions. Using calibrated inputs and a soil depth model, we ran TRIGRS for the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, comparing the model’s output with a shallow landslide inventory, shows that TRIGRS effectively simulated the instability conditions in the post-orogenic complex during historical rainfall scenarios. The implication of this work is that rainfall-induced landslides over large regions may be predicted by a deterministic model, even where data on geotechnical and hydraulic properties as well as temporal changes in topography or subsurface conditions are not available.

Esino river basin, Marche region↗