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USGS1983

Geologic and geophysical investigations of Climax Stock intrusive, Nevada

The Climax stock is a composite granitic intrusive of Cretaceous age, composed of quartz monzonite and granodiorite, which intrudes rocks of Paleozoic and Precambrian age. Tertiary volcanic rocks, consisting of ashflow and ash-fall tuffs, and tuffaceous sedimentary rocks overlie the sedimentary rocks and the stock. Erosion has removed much of the Tertiary volcanic rocks. Hydrothermal alteration of quartz monzonite and granodiorite is found mainly along joints and faults and varies from location to location. The Paleozoic carbonate rocks have been thermally and metasomatically altered to marble and tactite as much as 457 m (1,500 ft) from the contact with the stock, although minor discontinuous metasomatic effects are noted in all rocks out to 914 m (3,000 ft). Three major faults which define the Climax area structurally are the Tippinip, Boundary and Yucca faults. North of the junction of the Boundary and Yucca faults, the faults are collectively referred to as the Butte fault. The dominant joint sets and their average attitudes are N. 32? W., 22? NE; N. 60? W., vertical and N. 35? E., vertical. Joints in outcrop are weathered and generally open, but in subsurface, the joints are commonly filled and healed with secondary mineral s. The location of the water table and the degree of saturation of the granitic rocks are presently unknown. Measurement from drill holes indicated that depth to perched water levels ranges from 30 to 244 m (100-800 ft). Recent field investigations have shown the contact between the Pogonip marble and the granodiorite is a contact rather than a fault as previously mapped. The thickness of the weathered granodiorite is estimated to be 8 to 46 m (25 to 150 ft).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) survivorship and habitat studies in Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area and surrounding lands, Wyoming and Montana, 2000–2003

In the 1850s, bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were numerous and distributed throughout the Bighorn and Pryor Mountains of Montana and Wyoming. After European settlement, bighorn sheep populations declined, and local extinctions occurred in much of their historic range in the western United States. The current bighorn sheep population of Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) is the product of several reintroductions into BICA and surrounding lands. Following a release in 1973 and growth rates near maximum potential of 19.8% per year, the population grew to an estimated peak population of about 211 animals in 1993 and 1994 (Kissell and others, 1996). Recent counts indicate the bighorn sheep population has declined. Kissell and others (1996) reported that the population began to decline rapidly in 1995 and 1996. He noted low ewe:lamb ratios during the decline phase. Bighorn sheep numbers declined to the lowest minimum viable population size of 100 animals recommended by several bighorn sheep experts (Bailey, 1990; Berger, 1990; Smith and others, 1991). National Park Service (NPS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) managers were concerned about the decline and requested a study of its causes. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey- Biological Resources Division (USGS-BRD) received funding to start a 3-year study of survivorship, condition, and population growth rate of the BICA bighorn sheep population. Several possibilities exist for the bighorn sheep decline. The herd may have experienced a rapid population expansion, followed by a decline to stability at a lower long-term carrying capacity. This pattern of apparently overshooting carrying capacity following an initial release has been reported for a number of ungulates (Caughley, 1976). Disease may have caused the decline; predation and/or competition with wild horses (Equus caballus) may also have been factors. A spatial model of wild horse carrying capacity (Coughenour, 1999) was developed to assist managers in evaluating wild horse population numbers. Studies of summer consumption rates by wild horses and other ungulates were conducted by James Detling and students from Colorado State University (Peterson and others, 1997; Gerhardt and Detling, 1998; Fahnestock, 1998). Diets and habitat use of wild horses, bighorn sheep and mule deer were studied by Coates and Schemnitz (1989) and Kissell and others (1996). Both Coates and Schemnitz (1989) and Kissell and others (1996) reported a high degree of dietary overlap between wild horses and bighorn sheep. However, Kissell and others (1996) concluded that a high degree of spatial separation between wild horses and bighorn sheep, at least under the study conditions, precluded any significant negative competitive influences. The most important overlap of bighorn sheep and wild horses seems to be on winter range. Competition can be difficult to determine, since current conditions may not reveal competition that has already occurred. Managers remained concerned about the declining bighorn population for the following reasons: Our objectives for the study were to: Evaluate current disease problems and mortality rates, including predation rates, in bighorn sheep through captures and monitoring of bighorn sheep. Determine winter spatial relations of wild horses and bighorn sheep through aerial surveys of winter range. Conduct habitat measurements to determine why bighorn sheep were not using what had been mapped with a GIS-based habitat model as suitable bighorn sheep habitat, and sample winter and summer consumption rates of key forage species to see if there were other factors precluding use of these areas by bighorn sheep. Compare winter lamb recruitment rates and total vegetation consumption rates on bighorn sheep winter use areas, with and without wild horses present. Complete year-round GIS-based distribution maps for wild horses and bighorn sheep in order to identify key areas of species overlap and key areas of species separation for potential habitat improvements. NPS park staff asked USGS to answer the following questions: (a) how large is the population?; (b) how many rams are in the population?; (c) in addition to low lamb recruitment, is mortality or dispersal of adults likely contributing to the decline?; and (d) is trophy hunting of rams contributing to the decline?

Report↗

USGS1951

Reconnaissance examination for uranium at six mines and properties in Idaho and Montana

Six mining properties in Idaho and Montana at which radioactivity had been reported or suspected were briefly examine by J.S. Vhay and W.A. Roberts of the U.S. Geological Survey in October and November 1949. The properties in Idaho are the Grunter mine, from which radio-active mill concentrates have been reported; the Kentuck mine; the Ulysses-kittie Burton Mill; and the Garm-Lemoreaux mine. The properties in Montana are the Armeson-McKenny property in Beaverhead County and the Oro property in Lincoln County. Moderate to high radioactivity was noted at the Garm-Lemoreaux mine and the Armeson-McKenney property. That most of this radioactivity is not caused by uranium is suggested by the low uranium content of the majority of the samples. One sample from a dump of the Garm-Lemoreaux mine assayed 0.11 percent uranium.

Idaho;Montana↗

USGS1969

Modern coastal mangrove swamp stratigraphy and the ideal cyclothem

The general stratigraphy of the “ideal” cyclothem of Late Paleozoic age can be recognized in a modern succession of sedimentary units underlying the coastal mangrove swamps of southwestern Florida. Because coal deposition is associated with the formation of cyclothems, this stratigraphic similarity has geologic importance with respect to coal formation. The lower part of the succession in Florida consists of nonmarine sediments, the middle part of brackish-water or fresh-water mangrove peat, and the upper part of brackish-water and marine units. This sequence of sediments records a relative rise in sea level. In comparison, the lower part of the ideal cyclothem consists basically of nonmarine units, the central sedimentary member is coal, and the upper units are brackish-water and marine sediments. The ideal cyclothem is thought to have formed in part in a deltaic environment and to record a periodic fluctuation in terrigenous sediment supply and a relative rise in sea level. In contrast, southwestern Florida has essentially no deltas, as most of its paralic sediments are derived from coastal sources. In view of this, the stratigraphic similarity noted above must reflect a partial duplication of sedimentary environments brought about by a relative rise in sea level across a low coastal platform supporting peat-depositing paralic and fresh-water swamps and forests. This conclusion tends to support the point of view that the coal member of some cyclothems formed in a swampy environment penecontemporaneously with a relative rise in sea level. The coal member, therefore, is in part a transgressive unit.

Florida↗

USGS1980

Uranium contents of glassy and devitrified andesites and dacites, Mount Mazama, Oregon

By direct comparison of devitrified and granophyrically crystallized specimens with nonhydrated glassy materials from the same units, Rosholt and coworkers (Rosholt and Noble, 1969; Rosholt et al., 1971) showed that specimens of primarily crystallized but otherwise unaltered peralkaline and subalkaline rhyolite from the western United States had lost from 30 to 80 percent of the uranium that they originally possessed. They suggested that uranium was lost both during crystallization, perhaps as the volatile hexafluoride, and/or later through the action of ground water. Similar results have been obtained by Shatkov et al. (1970) and Kovalev and Maylasova (1973). Zielinski (1978) compared the uranium contents of paired nonhydrated glassy and primarily devitrified phases of a number of subalkaline rhyolitic lavas and tuffs from various localities in the western United States. He found a generally smaller degree of uranium loss than had been observed by Rosholt et al. (1971) for peralkaline materials. In addition, Zielinski noted that older specimens had, as a group, lost a greater percentage of their original uranium than had younger rocks and suggested that uranium is generally lost progressively over periods of many millions of years.

Oregon↗

USGS2007

Natural gases in ground water near Tioga Junction, Tioga County, north-central Pennsylvania: Occurrence and use of isotopes to determine origins, 2005

In January 2001, State oil and gas inspectors noted bubbles of natural gas in well water during a complaint investigation near Tioga Junction, Tioga County, north-central Pa. By 2004, the gas occurrence in ground water and accumulation in homes was a safety concern; inspectors were taking action to plug abandoned gas wells and collect gas samples. The origins of the natural-gas problems in ground water were investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, in wells throughout an area of about 50 mi2, using compositional and isotopic characteristics of methane and ethane in gas and water wells. This report presents the results for gas-well and water-well samples collected from October 2004 to September 2005. Ground water for rural-domestic supply and other uses near Tioga Junction is from two aquifer systems in and adjacent to the Tioga River valley. An unconsolidated aquifer of outwash sand and gravel of Quaternary age underlies the main river valley and extends into the valleys of tributaries. Fine-grained lacustrine sediments separate shallow and deep water-bearing zones of the outwash. Outwash-aquifer wells are seldom deeper than 100 ft. The river-valley sediments and uplands adjacent to the valley are underlain by a fractured-bedrock aquifer in siliciclastic rocks of Paleozoic age. Most bedrock-aquifer wells produce water from the Lock Haven Formation at depths of 250 ft or less. A review of previous geologic investigations was used to establish the structural framework and identify four plausible origins for natural gas. The Sabinsville Anticline, trending southwest to northeast, is the major structural feature in the Devonian bedrock. The anticline, a structural trap for a reservoir of deep native gas in the Oriskany Sandstone (Devonian) (origin 1) at depths of about 3,900 ft, was explored and tapped by numerous wells from 1930-60. The gas reservoir in the vicinity of Tioga Junction, depleted of native gas, was converted to the Tioga gas-storage field for injection and withdrawal of non-native gases (origin 2). Devonian shale gas (shallow native gas) also has been reported in the area (origin 3). Gas might also originate from microbial degradation of buried organic material in the outwash deposits (origin 4). An inventory of combustible-gas concentrations in headspaces of water samples from 91 wells showed 49 wells had water containing combustible gases at volume fractions of 0.1 percent or more. Well depth was a factor in the observed occurrence of combustible gas for the 62 bedrock wells inventoried. As well-depth range increased from less than 50 ft to 51-150 ft to greater than 151 ft, the percentage of bedrock-aquifer wells with combustible gas increased. Wells with high concentrations of combustible gas occurred in clusters; the largest cluster was near the eastern boundary of the gas-storage field. A subsequent detailed gas-sampling effort focused on 39 water wells with the highest concentrations of combustible gas (12 representing the outwash aquifer and 27 from the bedrock aquifer) and 8 selected gas wells. Three wells producing native gas from the Oriskany Sandstone and five wells (two observation wells and three injection/withdrawal wells) with non-native gas from the gas-storage field were sampled twice. Chemical composition, stable carbon and hydrogen isotopes of methane (13CCH4 and DCH4), and stable carbon isotopes of ethane (13CC2H6) were analyzed. No samples could be collected to document the composition of microbial gas originating in the outwash deposits (outwash or 'drift' gas) or of native natural gas originating solely in Devonian shale at depths shallower than the Oriskany Sandstone, although two of the storage-field observation wells sampled reportedly yielded some Devonian shale gas. Literature values for outwash or 'drift' gas and Devonian shale gases were used to supplement the data collection. Non-native gases fr

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1960

Wetland and water supply

The Geological Survey has received numerous inquiries about the effects of proposed changes in the wetland environment. The nature of the inquiries suggests a general confusion in the public mind as to wetland values and an increasing concern by the public with the need for facts as a basis for sound decisions when public action is required. Perhaps the largest gap in our knowledge is in regard to the role played by the wetland in the natural water scheme. Specialists in such fields as agriculture and conservation have studied the wetland in relation to its special uses and values for farming and as a habitat for fish and wildlife. However, except as studied incidentally by these specialists, the role of the wetland with respect to water has been largely neglected. This facet of the wetland problem is of direct concern to the Geological Survey. We commonly speak of water in terms of its place in the hydrologic environment---as, for example, surface water or ground water. These terms imply that water can be neatly pigeonholed. With respect to the wetland environment nothing can be further from the truth. In fact, one objective of this discussion is to demonstrate that for the wetland environment surface water, ground water, and soil water cannot be separated realistically, but are closely interrelated and must be studied together. It should be noted that this statement holds true for the hydrologic environment in general, and that the wetland environment is by no means unique in this respect. Our second and principal objective is to identify some of the problems that must be studied in order to clarify the role of the wetland in relation to water supply. We have chosen to approach these objectives by briefly describing one area for which we have some information, and by using this example to point out some of the problems that need study. First, however, let us define what we, as geohydrologists, mean by wetland and briefly consider wetland classifications. For our purpose wetlands are land areas that are covered with shallow water or subjected to intermittent flooding and subsequent slow drainage, and which generally are characterized by an accumulation of organic matter hereafter termed swamp deposits.' These wetlands may be classified in a number of different ways depending on the purpose of the classifier. For example, the Fish and Wildlife Service classifies wetlands into 20 different types based on water quality (fresh or salty), drainage, and vegetation. At the risk of some oversimplification we might consider 4 types of wetland from the standpoint of hydrology: (1) fresh-water swamps in which the swamp deposits are underlain by glacial till or bedrock; (2)fresh-water swamps in which the swamp deposits are underlain by marine or lacustrine clay and silt; (3) fresh-water swamps in which the swamp deposits are underlain by glacial outwash or alluvium consisting mostly of sand or sand and gravel; and (4) salt .marshes and salt meadows. The three fresh-water types of wetland are of interest with respect to water supply, and of these, the type in which swamp deposits are underlain by glacial outwash is of particular interest in New England. In the Ipswich River basin above the Geological Survey gaging station at South Middleton, Mass., is an area of 44 square miles which forms the headwaters section of the basin. The relief of the area is low. About half the area consists of hills mostly underlain by bedrock but mantled by a thin layer of glacial till. The other half consists Of lowlands---including swamps, low terraces and plains---underlain by glacial outwash, Swampland, used hereafter as a synonym for wetland, forms about a fourth of the area. Some of the swamps occupy depressions in the till blanket and are situated at somewhat higher levels than the lowlands. The largest swamps, however, border the Ipswich River and its tributaries. Here the swamp deposits, which consist of muck and peat mixed with s

Circular↗

USGS2021

Student and recent graduate opportunities

As an unbiased, multidisciplinary science organization, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is dedicated to the timely, relevant, and impartial study of the health of our ecosystems and environment, our natural resources, the impacts of climate and land-use change, and the natural hazards that affect our lives. Opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as recent graduates, to participate in USGS science are available in the selected programs described in this publication. Please note: U.S. citizenship is required for Federal government positions.

General Information Product↗

USGS2012

Observations of coastal sediment dynamics of the Tijuana Estuary Fine Sediment Fate and Transport Demonstration Project, Imperial Beach, California

Coastal restoration and management must address the presence, use, and transportation of fine sediment, yet little information exists on the patterns and/or processes of fine-sediment transport and deposition for these systems. To fill this information gap, a number of State of California, Federal, and private industry partners developed the Tijuana Estuary Fine Sediment Fate and Transport Demonstration Project ("Demonstration Project") with the purpose of monitoring the transport, fate, and impacts of fine sediment from beach-sediment nourishments in 2008 and 2009 near the Tijuana River estuary, Imperial Beach, California. The primary purpose of the Demonstration Project was to collect and provide information about the directions, rates, and processes of fine-sediment transport along and across a California beach and nearshore setting. To achieve these goals, the U.S. Geological Survey monitored water, beach, and seafloor properties during the 2008–2009 Demonstration Project. The project utilized sediment with ~40 percent fine sediment by mass so that the dispersal and transport of fine sediment would be easily recognizable. The purpose of this report is to present and disseminate the data collected during the physical monitoring of the Demonstration Project. These data are available online at the links noted in the "Additional Digital Information" section. Synthesis of these data and results will be provided in subsequent publications.

California↗

USGS1999

Geophysical framework of the southwestern Nevada volcanic field and hydrogeologic implications

Gravity and magnetic data, when integrated with other geophysical, geological, and rock-property data, provide a regional framework to view the subsurface geology in the southwestern Nevada volcanic field. The region has been loosely divided into six domains based on structural style and overall geophysical character. For each domain, the subsurface tectonic and magmatic features that have been inferred or interpreted from previous geophysical work has been reviewed. Where possible, abrupt changes in geophysical fields as evidence for potential structural lithologic control on ground-water flow has been noted. Inferred lithology is used to suggest associated hydrogeologic units in the subsurface. The resulting framework provides a basis for investigators to develop hypotheses from regional ground-water pathways where no drill-hole information exists.

Nevada↗

USGS1953

Reconnaissance for uranium in the southeastern states, 1953

During the last quarter of 1952 and most of 1953 the U.S. Geological Survey carried on a program of reconnaissance for radioactive material in the southeastern states on behalf to the Atomic Energy Commission. In the course of the study 111 localities were examined and 43 samples were taken for radioactivity measurements at the Survey's Trace Elements laboratory in Denver, Colo. No economic deposits of uranium were found as a result of this work, but weak radioactivity was noted at the Tungsten Mining Coperation property near Townsville, N. C.; the Comolli granite quarry near Elberton, Ga.; in the Beech and Cranberry granite near Roan Mountain, Tenn.; and in several shales in the Valley and Ridge and Appalachian Plateau provinces. Devonian through Pennsylvanian rocks in these two provinces probably constitute the most favorable ground for new discoveries of uranium in the Southeast.

Alabama;Florida;Georgia;Kentucky;Mississippi;North↗

USGS1905

The petroleum fields of the Pacific coast of Alaska, with an account of the Bering River coal deposits

This report contains the result of a hasty examination of the structural and economic geology of the localities where indications of petroleum have been found. Though only a few wells have been drilled and it is too soon to predict an important future for the region as a petroleum producer, studies have shown that there is ample justification for further prospecting and that the region may yet be an important source of illuminating oil. In this connection it is of interest to note that the Bering River coal is the best that has yet been found on the Pacific coast of North America. These coal and petroleum fields have been deemed of sufficient importance to justify the further investigation already begun, and it is hoped that this, together with the commercial development, will soon permit of more definite statements regarding the economic importance of this field.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Selected natural attenuation monitoring data, Operable Unit 1, Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Division Keyport, Washington, June 2003

Previous investigations have shown that natural attenuation and biodegradation of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) are substantial in shallow ground water beneath the 9-acre former landfill at Operable Unit 1 (OU 1), Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC), Division Keyport, Washington. This report presents the ground-water geochemical and selected CVOC data collected at OU 1 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during June 17-20, 2003 in support of long-term monitoring for natural attenuation. Strongly reducing conditions favorable for reductive dechlorination of CVOCs were found in fewer upper-aquifer wells during June 2003 than were found during sampling periods in 2001 and 2002. Redox conditions in water from the intermediate aquifer just downgradient from the landfill remained somewhat favorable for reductive dechlorination. As was noted in previous monitoring reports, the changes in redox conditions observed at individual wells have not been consistent or substantial throughout either the upper or the intermediate aquifers. Compared to 2002 data, total CVOC concentrations in June 2003 were nearly unchanged in all northern plantation piezometers sampled, although the concentrations were historically low at two of those sites. Total CVOC concentrations decreased consistently in the southern plantation samples. Historically low total CVOC concentrations were observed in three of the piezometers sampled, and a two order-of-magnitude decrease in total CVOCs was observed at one of those sites. The observed decreases in CVOC concentrations appear to be in contrast with the 2003 redox data that suggested less favorable conditions for reductive dechlorination. The Navy and USGS plan to do more extensive data-collection and interpretation during 2004 to better understand and document possible changes in redox conditions and contaminant biodegradation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1996

Water-level data for the industrial area northwest of Delaware City, Delaware, 1993-94

Water-level data for 171 wells and one surface-water site on Red Lion Creek in the industrial area northwest of Delaware City, Delaware, are presented for 1993 and 1994. Eight sets of synoptic ground- water-level measurements collected between April 1993 and September 1994, and locations and field notes for the 171 wells are presented. A hydrograph from December 19, 1993 through November 8, 1994 is presented for one surface-water site on Red Lion Creek in the industrial area. Hydrographs from October 15, 1993 through November 8, 1994 are presented for eight wells screened in the water- table aquifer. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collected the synoptic ground-water-level measurements. The U.S. Geological Survey collected the continuously recorded water-level data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1962

Records of selected wells and springs, selected drillers' logs of wells, and chemical analyses of ground and surface waters, northern Utah Valley, Utah County, Utah

This report is intended to serve two purposes: (1) to make available to the public basic ground-water data useful in planning and studying development of water resources and (2) to supplement an interpretive report that will be published later. Records were collected during the period 1956-59 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah State Engineer as a part of the investigation of the ground-water resources of northern Utah Walley in Utah County, Utah. Some earlier data and other information in the tables are from published reports on the ground-water resources of northern Utah Walley. The interpretive material will be published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah State Engineer in a companion report by Seymour Subitzky. This report is most useful in predicting conditions likely to be found in areas that are being considered as well sites. The person considering the new well can spot the proposed site on plate 1 and examine the records of nearby wells as shown on the tables. From tables 1, 2, and h he can note the type of material that yields water to wells in the vicinity; from table 2 he can note (1) the depth and diameter of wells in the vicinity and the yield of some of those wells, and (2) the depth to water or the feet of water pressure in the vicinity; from table 3 and plate 1 he may note the location of springs and the conditions related to the occurrence of these springs; and from tables 5 and 6 he may note the chemical quality of the water from wells and from some surface sources, and the uses of these waters. If the reader decides from his examination that conditions are favorable, he may place an application to drill a well with the State Engineer. If the State Engineer believes unappropriated water is available, the application may be approved after minimum statutory requirements have been satisfied. The report is also useful when planning large-scale developments of water supply. This and other uses of the report will be helped by use of the interpretive report upon its release.

Utah↗

USGS2014

Notes on the relation between the moisture‐equivalent and the specific retention of water‐bearing materials

The moisture‐equivalent and specific retention have been widely used as quasi‐physical constants to measure the power of a water‐bearing material or a soil to retain water against gravitative force. Comparatively little has been demonstrated, however, as to the relation of one to the other. This paper is a preliminary statement of the apparent relation between these two measures of retentive power and is based on a study of alluvial materials made in connection with an investigation by the United States Geological Survey into the ground‐water resources of the Mokelumne Area, central California.

California↗

USGS1950

Progress report on the geology and ground-water hydrology of part of the Oahe Unit, James River Division, South Dakota

The Oahe Unit, in the James River basin in eastern South Dakota, extends for about 100 miles north and south and is 20 to 80 miles wide, having the river as its east border. The Oahe irrigation project is planned to supply water to 750,000 to 1,500,000 acres of the most suitable land within the area. The studies that have been undertaken in the Oahe area by the Ground Water Division of the U. S. Geological Survey form a part of the investigations which are being carried on by several bureaus of the Department of the Interior and other government agencies for the conservation, control and utilization of the water resources of the Missouri River Basin. The field studies on which the present report is based were made during May 1947 through November 1948 and cover about 1,890 square miles in the southern part of the Oahe area. Data were collected on the character of the surficial geological deposits, and on the occurrence, movement, quantity, and quality of the groundwater supplies. The report describes the several water-bearing formations and presents nine typical logs of deep artesian wells. The records of fluctuation of the water table in 168 wells in or near the Oahe area are listed. Tabulated inventory of 3,257 wells and springs includes information on the observation wells and on all other wells that were noted within the area examined.

South Dakota↗

USGS2006

Performance assessments of nuclear waste repositories: A dialogue on their value and limitations

Performance Assessment (PA) is the use of mathematical models to simulate the long-term behavior of engineered and geologic barriers in a nuclear waste repository; methods of uncertainty analysis are used to assess effects of parametric and conceptual uncertainties associated with the model system upon the uncertainty in outcomes of the simulation. PA is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of its certification process for geologic repositories for nuclear waste. This paper is a dialogue to explore the value and limitations of PA. Two “skeptics” acknowledge the utility of PA in organizing the scientific investigations that are necessary for confident siting and licensing of a repository; however, they maintain that the PA process, at least as it is currently implemented, is an essentially unscientific process with shortcomings that may provide results of limited use in evaluating actual effects on public health and safety. Conceptual uncertainties in a PA analysis can be so great that results can be confidently applied only over short time ranges, the antithesis of the purpose behind long-term, geologic disposal. Two “proponents” of PA agree that performance assessment is unscientific, but only in the sense that PA is an engineering analysis that uses existing scientific knowledge to support public policy decisions, rather than an investigation intended to increase fundamental knowledge of nature; PA has different goals and constraints than a typical scientific study. The “proponents” describe an ideal, sixstep process for conducting generalized PA, here called probabilistic systems analysis (PSA); they note that virtually all scientific content of a PA is introduced during the model-building steps of a PSA, they contend that a PA based on simple but scientifically acceptable mathematical models can provide useful and objective input to regulatory decision makers. The value of the results of any PA must lie between these two views and will depend on the level of knowledge of the site, the degree to which models capture actual physical and chemical processes, the time over which extrapolations are made, and the proper evaluation of health risks attending implementation of the repository. The challenge is in evaluating whether the quality of the PA matches the needs of decision makers charged with protecting the health and safety of the public.

Risk Analysis↗