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Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models

Two inundation events in 2011 underscored the potential for elevated water levels to damage infrastructure and affect terrestrial ecosystems on the low-lying Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The goal of this study was to compare passive "bathtub" inundation models based on geographic information systems (GIS) to those that include dynamic water levels caused by wave-induced set-up and run-up for two end-member island morphologies: Midway, a classic atoll with islands on the shallow (2-8 m) atoll rim and a deep, central lagoon; and Laysan, which is characterized by a deep (20-30 m) atoll rim and an island at the center of the atoll. Vulnerability to elevated water levels was assessed using hindcast wind and wave data to drive coupled physics-based numerical wave, current, and water-level models for the atolls. The resulting model data were then used to compute run-up elevations using a parametric run-up equation under both present conditions and future sea-level-rise scenarios. In both geomorphologies, wave heights and wavelengths adjacent to the island shorelines increased more than three times and four times, respectively, with increasing values of sea-level rise, as more deep-water wave energy could propagate over the atoll rim and larger wind-driven waves could develop on the atoll. Although these increases in water depth resulted in decreased set-up along the islands’ shorelines, the larger wave heights and longer wavelengths due to sea-level rise increased the resulting wave-induced run-up. Run-up values were spatially heterogeneous and dependent on the direction of incident wave direction, bathymetry, and island configuration. Island inundation was modeled to increase substantially when wave-driven effects were included, suggesting that inundation and impacts to infrastructure and terrestrial habitats will occur at lower values of predicted sea-level rise, and thus sooner in the 21st century, than suggested by passive GIS-based "bathtub" inundation models. Lastly, observations and the modeling results suggest that classic atolls with islands on a shallow atoll rim are more susceptible to the combined effects of sea-level rise and wave-driven inundation than atolls characterized by a deep atoll rim.

Hawai'i

A decision support model to assess vulnerability to salt water intrusion in the great bend prairie aquifer of Kansas

A relatively simple ground water decision support system (DSS) was developed to assist in identifying salt-water vulnerable areas and in developing management policies to prevent salt-water intrusion in central Kansas. The DSS is based on a combination of numerical modeling sensitivity analyses, multiple regression analyses, and classification procedures derived from our knowledge of the area. Six ground water salinity models are proposed to evaluate irrigation well permit applications. The choice of model depends on the availability of site-specific data. The DSS takes advantage of GIS database management procedures, and is applied to an actual salt-water intrusion problem site in south-central Kansas. This approach can help local ground water management districts make better decisions on protecting ground water use in salt water vulnerable areas.

Groundwater

GIS-based spatial regression and prediction of water quality in river networks: A case study in Iowa

Nonpoint source pollution is the leading cause of the U.S.'s water quality problems. One important component of nonpoint source pollution control is an understanding of what and how watershed-scale conditions influence ambient water quality. This paper investigated the use of spatial regression to evaluate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO3NO2-N concentration in the Cedar River Watershed, Iowa. An Arc Hydro geodatabase was constructed to organize various datasets on the watershed. Spatial regression models were developed to evaluate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO3NO2-N concentration and predict NO3NO2-N concentration at unmonitored locations. Unlike the traditional ordinary least square (OLS) method, the spatial regression method incorporates the potential spatial correlation among the observations in its coefficient estimation. Study results show that NO3NO2-N observations in the Cedar River Watershed are spatially correlated, and by ignoring the spatial correlation, the OLS method tends to over-estimate the impacts of watershed characteristics on stream NO3NO2-N concentration. In conjunction with kriging, the spatial regression method not only makes better stream NO3NO2-N concentration predictions than the OLS method, but also gives estimates of the uncertainty of the predictions, which provides useful information for optimizing the design of stream monitoring network. It is a promising tool for better managing and controlling nonpoint source pollution. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Journal of Environmental Management

A geostatistical approach to predicting sulfur content in the Pittsburgh coal bed

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is completing a national assessment of coal resources in the five top coal-producing regions in the US. Point-located data provide measurements on coal thickness and sulfur content. The sample data and their geologic interpretation represent the most regionally complete and up-to-date assessment of what is known about top-producing US coal beds. The sample data are analyzed using a combination of geologic and Geographic Information System (GIS) models to estimate tonnages and qualities of the coal beds. Traditionally, GIS practitioners use contouring to represent geographical patterns of "similar" data values. The tonnage and grade of coal resources are then assessed by using the contour lines as references for interpolation. An assessment taken to this point is only indicative of resource quantity and quality. Data users may benefit from a statistical approach that would allow them to better understand the uncertainty and limitations of the sample data. To develop a quantitative approach, geostatistics were applied to the data on coal sulfur content from samples taken in the Pittsburgh coal bed (located in the eastern US, in the southwestern part of the state of Pennsylvania, and in adjoining areas in the states of Ohio and West Virginia). Geostatistical methods that account for regional and local trends were applied to blocks 2.7 mi (4.3 km) on a side. The data and geostatistics support conclusions concerning the average sulfur content and its degree of reliability at regional- and economic-block scale over the large, contiguous part of the Pittsburgh outcrop, but not to a mine scale. To validate the method, a comparison was made with the sulfur contents in sample data taken from 53 coal mines located in the study area. The comparison showed a high degree of similarity between the sulfur content in the mine samples and the sulfur content represented by the geostatistically derived contours. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Baseline Channel Geometry and Aquatic Habitat Data for Selected Streams in the Matanuska-Susitna Valley, Alaska

Small streams in the rapidly developing Matanuska-Susitna Valley in south-central Alaska are known to support anadromous and resident fish but little is known about their hydrologic and riparian conditions, or their sensitivity to the rapid development of the area or climate variability. To help address this need, channel geometry and aquatic habitat data were collected in 2005 as a baseline of stream conditions for selected streams. Three streams were selected as representative of various stream types, and one drainage network, the Big Lake drainage basin, was selected for a systematic assessment. Streams in the Big Lake basin were drawn in a Geographic Information System (GIS), and 55 reaches along 16 miles of Meadow Creek and its primary tributary Little Meadow Creek were identified from orthoimagery and field observations on the basis of distinctive physical and habitat parameters, most commonly gradient, substrate, and vegetation. Data-collection methods for sites at the three representative reaches and the 55 systematically studied reaches consisted of a field survey of channel and flood-plain geometry and collection of 14 habitat attributes using published protocols or slight modifications. Width/depth and entrenchment ratios along the Meadow-Little Meadow Creek corridor were large and highly variable upstream of Parks Highway and lower and more consistent downstream of Parks Highway. Channel width was strongly correlated with distance, increasing downstream in a log-linear relation. Runs formed the most common habitat type, and instream vegetation dominated the habitat cover types, which collectively covered 53 percent of the channel. Gravel suitable for spawning covered isolated areas along Meadow Creek and about 29 percent of Little Meadow Creek. Broad wetlands were common along both streams. For a comprehensive assessment of small streams in the Mat-Su Valley, critical additional data needs include hydrologic, geologic and geomorphic, and biologic data, in particular the contribution of ground water and lakes to streamflow, water quality, flood plain connectivity, and surficial geology.

Scientific Investigations Report

The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast

The U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector cliff edges and associated rates of cliff retreat along the open-ocean California coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Cliff erosion is a chronic problem along many coastlines of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of coastal cliff retreat. There is also a critical need for these data to be consistent from one region to another. One objective of this work is to a develop standard, repeatable methodology for mapping and analyzing cliff edge retreat so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of cliff edge position and associated rates of erosion can be made at a national scale. This data compilation for open-ocean cliff edges for the California coast is a separate, yet related study to Hapke and others, 2006 documenting shoreline change along sandy shorelines of the California coast, which is itself one in a series that includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic coast (Morton and others, 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005). Future reports and data compilations will include coverage of the Northeast U.S., the Great Lakes, Hawaii and Alaska. Cliff edge change is determined by comparing the positions of one historical cliff edge digitized from maps with a modern cliff edge derived from topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys. Historical cliff edges for the California coast represent the 1920s-1930s time-period; the most recent cliff edge was delineated using data collected between 1998 and 2002. End-point rate calculations were used to evaluate rates of erosion between the two cliff edges. Please refer to our full report on cliff edge erosion along the California coastline at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1133/ for additional information regarding methods and results (Hapke and others, 2007). Data in this report are organized into downloadable layers by region (Northern, Central and Southern California) and are provided as vector datasets with accompanying metadata. Vector cliff edges may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and the sources used are included in the dataset metadata. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS as it's Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping tool and contains several data layers (shapefiles) that are used to create a geographic view of the California coast. The vector data form a basemap comprising polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

California

The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the Gulf of Mexico is the first in a series that will eventually include the Atlantic Coast, Pacific Coast, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are based on merging three historical shorelines with a modern shoreline derived from lidar (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1970s. The most recent shoreline is derived from data collected over the period of 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are simple end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change in the Gulf of Mexico, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1, Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (USGS Open File Report 2004-1043) for additional information regarding methods and results. Data in this report are organized into data layers by state and are provided as single-point vector datasets with metadata. Vector shorelines may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and these sources are attributed in the dataset. All data are intended to be GIS-ready inasmuch as the data should not require any additional cleanup, formatting, or renaming of fields in order to use the data in a Geographic Information System (GIS). This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcView as its GIS mapping tool and contains several data layers (or themes) that are used to create a geographic view of the margin off the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. These vector data form a basemap comprised of polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

Open-File Report

Ohio River backwater flood-inundation maps for the Saline and Wabash Rivers in southern Illinois

Digital flood-inundation maps for the Saline and Wabash Rivers referenced to elevations on the Ohio River in southern Illinois were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The inundation maps, accessible through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (gage heights) at the USGS streamgage at Ohio River at Old Shawneetown, Illinois-Kentucky (station number 03381700). Current gage height and flow conditions at this USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?03381700. In addition, this streamgage is incorporated into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) by the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. That NWS forecasted peak-stage information, also shown on the Ohio River at Old Shawneetown inundation Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, eight water-surface elevations were mapped at 5-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum ranging from just above the NWS Action Stage (31 ft) to above the maximum historical gage height (66 ft). The elevations of the water surfaces were compared to a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) by using a Geographic Information System (GIS) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. These maps, along with information on the Internet regarding current gage heights from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Illinois;Kentucky

Automated, reproducible delineation of zones at risk from inundation by large volcanic debris flows

Large debris flows can pose hazards to people and property downstream from volcanoes. We have developed a rapid, reproducible, objective, and inexpensive method to delineate distal debris-flow hazard zones. Our method employs the results of scaling and statistical analyses of the geometry of volcanic debris flows (lahars) to predict inundated valley cross-sectional areas (A) and planimetric areas (B) as functions of lahar volume. We use a range of specified lahar volumes to evaluate A and B. In a Geographic Information System (GIS) we employ the resulting range of predicted A and B to delineate gradations in inundation hazard, which is highest near the volcano and along valley thalwegs and diminishes as distances from the volcano and elevations above valley floors increase. Comparison of our computer-generated hazard maps with those constructed using traditional, field-based methods indicates that our method can provide an accurate means of delineating lahar hazard zones.

Conference Paper

Urban ecosystem services and decision making for a green Philadelphia

Traditional approaches to urban development often do not account for, or recognize, the role of ecosystem services and the benefits these services provide to the health and well-being of city residents. Without such accounting, urban ecosystem services are likely to be degraded over time, with negative consequences for the sustainability of cities and the well-being of their residents (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Hirsch, 2008). On May 23, 2013, the Spatial Integration Laboratory for Urban Systems (SILUS), a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science and Decisions Center and the Wharton GIS Lab, convened a one-day symposium—Urban Ecosystem Services and Decision Making: A Green Philadelphia—at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to examine the role of green infrastructure in the environmental, economic, and social well-being of cities. Cosponsored by the USGS and the Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR), the symposium brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers from a range of disciplines to advance a research agenda on the use of science in public decision making to inform investment in green infrastructure and ecosystem services in urban areas. The city of Philadelphia has recently implemented a program designed to sustain urban ecosystem services and advance the use of green infrastructure. In 2009, the Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Sustainability launched its Greenworks plan, establishing a citywide sustainability strategy. Major contributions towards its goals are being implemented in coordination with the Philadelphia Water Department (PWD). The Green City, Clean Waters initiative, the city’s nationally recognized stormwater management plan, was signed into action with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2012. The plan outlines a 25-year strategy to use green infrastructure to protect and improve the city’s watershed. Widespread support for the plan marks a citywide effort to factor environmental quality concerns into the city’s strategic planning, choosing to replace expensive and aging grey infrastructure, with innovative and resilient green infrastructure. The symposium focused on these city of Philadelphia initiatives and also on two new Federal- local partnership programs: America’s Great Outdoors, initiated to promote conservation and recreation, and the Urban Waters Federal Partnership, a multiagency effort to reconnect urban communities to their waterways. A second goal of the symposium was to advance a research agenda on urban ecosystem services. While there has been considerable work on ecosystem services, the discussion of the benefits provided by urban ecosystems is not as developed. Benefits range from improved water and air quality to quality of life gains, including aesthetic and recreational considerations. There is also need for additional focused research toward furthering the understanding of the multiple indirect benefits provided by urban ecosystem services (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). Moreover, there is a need for a greater understanding of how best to inform local decision making in this area, as local decision makers in cities across the country are increasingly recognizing the importance of developing sustainability measures for their immediate and long-term planning (United States Conference of Mayors, 2005). Approaching these local and regional plans from a holistic perspective has become a guiding principle of sustainability and resiliency. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the gains that have been achieved and to advance a research agenda on ecosystem services going forward. The day’s program included presentations on greening initiatives from the Philadelphia’s Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, as well as discussion about using an urban ecosystem services framework to evaluate these initiatives. Panel sessions included discussion of the Green City, Clean Waters initiative; a dialogue about the management of urban trees and green space; and a conversation addressing the needs for future research.

Pennsylvania

Geographic information system (GIS)-based maps of Appalachian basin oil and gas fields

One of the more recent maps of Appalachian basin oil and gas fields (and the adjoining Black Warrior basin) is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compilation by Mast and others (1998) (see Trippi and others, this volume, chap. I.1). This map is part of a larger oil and gas field map for the conterminous United States that was derived by Mast and others (1998) from the Well History Control System (WHCS) database of Petroleum Information, Inc. (now IHS Energy Group). Rather than constructing the map from the approximately 500,000 proprietary wells in the Appalachian and Black Warrior part of the WHCS database, Mast and others (1998) subdivided the region into a grid of 1-mi 2 (square mile) cells and allocated an appropriate type of hydrocarbon production (oil production, gas production, oil and gas production, or explored but no production) to each cell. Each 1-mi 2 cell contains from 0 to 5 or more exploratory and (or) development wells. For example, if the wells in the 1-mi 2 cell consisted of three oil wells, one gas well, and one dry well, then the cell would be characterized on the map as an area of oil and gas production. The map by Mast and others (1998) accurately shows the distribution and types of hydrocarbon accumulation in the Appalachian and Black Warrior basins, but it does not show the names of individual fields. To determine the locality and name of individual oil and gas fields, one must refer to State oil and gas maps (for example, Harper and others, 1982), which are generally published at scales of 1:250,000 or 1:500,000 (see References Cited), and (or) published journal articles. Other recent USGS Appalachian basin oil and gas field maps show the distribution of oil and gas production with a cell size as small as 0.25 mi 2 , such as the maps converted by Trippi and others (this volume, chap. I.1) from proprietary well-location maps used in the USGS 2002 assessment of oil and gas resources of the Appalachian basin (Milici and others, 2003). Another set of Appalachian basin oil and gas cell maps (based on a cell size of 0.25 mi 2 ) was created for the USGS 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources (Gautier and others, 1995; Beeman and others, 1996). Between 1991 and 1994, R.T. Ryder (with R.E. Mattick, J.B. Roen, and J.R. San Filipo, USGS, Reston, Va.) compiled oil and gas fields on stable-base mylar greenline base maps (scale 1:500,000) for selected plays in the Appalachian basin. These map compilations included field names and field numbers where assigned by State agencies. The purpose of the maps was to provide supporting data for the USGS 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources (Gautier and others, 1995). In particular, the greenline oil and gas field maps were linked, where possible, with production data from State records and (or) published literature in order to determine ultimate sizes for conventional fields and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) values for wells in continuous accumulations (for definitions of the conventional and continuous terminology, see USGS National Oil and Gas Assessment Team, 1995; Schmoker, 1997; Schenk and Pollastro, 2002). This approach was used in the 1995 national oil and gas assessment because ultimate field size and EUR data were unavailable in the Appalachian region from Petroleum Information, Inc., and other commercial sources. In 2006 and 2007, the greenline Appalachian basin field maps were digitized under the supervision of Scott Kinney and converted to geographic information system (GIS) files for chapter I.1 (this volume). By converting these oil and gas field maps to a digital format and maintaining the field names where noted, they are now available for a variety of oil and gas and possibly carbon-dioxide sequestration projects. Having historical names assigned to known digitized conventional fields provides a convenient classification scheme into which cumulative production and ultimate field-size databases can be organized. Moreover, as exploratory and development drilling expands across the basin, many previously named fields that were originally treated as conventional fields have evolved into large, commonly unnamed continuous-type accumulations. These new digital maps will facilitate a comparison between EUR values from recently drilled, unnamed parts of continuous accumulations and EUR values from named fields discovered early during the exploration cycle of continuous accumulations.

Appalachian basin

Near-real-time simulation and internet-based delivery of forecast-flood inundation maps using two-dimensional hydraulic modeling--A pilot study for the Snoqualmie River, Washington

A system of numerical hydraulic modeling, geographic information system processing, and Internet map serving, supported by new data sources and application automation, was developed that generates inundation maps for forecast floods in near real time and makes them available through the Internet. Forecasts for flooding are generated by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Center (RFC); these forecasts are retrieved automatically by the system and prepared for input to a hydraulic model. The model, TrimR2D, is a new, robust, two-dimensional model capable of simulating wide varieties of discharge hydrographs and relatively long stream reaches. TrimR2D was calibrated for a 28-kilometer reach of the Snoqualmie River in Washington State, and is used to estimate flood extent, depth, arrival time, and peak time for the RFC forecast. The results of the model are processed automatically by a Geographic Information System (GIS) into maps of flood extent, depth, and arrival and peak times. These maps subsequently are processed into formats acceptable by an Internet map server (IMS). The IMS application is a user-friendly interface to access the maps over the Internet; it allows users to select what information they wish to see presented and allows the authors to define scale-dependent availability of map layers and their symbology (appearance of map features). For example, the IMS presents a background of a digital USGS 1:100,000-scale quadrangle at smaller scales, and automatically switches to an ortho-rectified aerial photograph (a digital photograph that has camera angle and tilt distortions removed) at larger scales so viewers can see ground features that help them identify their area of interest more effectively. For the user, the option exists to select either background at any scale. Similar options are provided for both the map creator and the viewer for the various flood maps. This combination of a robust model, emerging IMS software, and application interface programming should allow the technology developed in the pilot study to be applied to other river systems where NWS forecasts are provided routinely.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

A terrain-based paired-site sampling design to assess biodiversity losses from eastern hemlock decline

Biodiversity surveys are often hampered by the inability to control extraneous sources of variability introduced into comparisons of populations across a heterogenous landscape. If not specifically accounted for a priori, this noise can weaken comparisons between sites, and can make it difficult to draw inferences about specific ecological processes. We developed a terrain-based, paired-site sampling design to analyze differences in aquatic biodiversity between streams draining eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests, and those draining mixed hardwood forests in Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (USA). The goal of this design was to minimize variance due to terrain influences on stream communities, while representing the range of hemlock dominated stream environments present in the park. We used geographic information systems (GIS) and cluster analysis to define and partition hemlock dominated streams into terrain types based on topographic variables and stream order. We computed similarity of forest stands within terrain types and used this information to pair hemlock-dominated streams with hardwood counterparts prior to sampling. We evaluated the effectiveness of the design through power analysis and found that power to detect differences in aquatic invertebrate taxa richness was highest when sites were paired and terrain type was included as a factor in the analysis. Precision of the estimated difference in mean richness was nearly doubled using the terrain-based, paired site design in comparison to other evaluated designs. Use of this method allowed us to sample stream communities representative of park-wide forest conditions while effectively controlling for landscape variability.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Application of the SHOALS survey system to fisheries investigations in the Columbia River

We used a Scanning Hydrographic Operational Airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) Survey (SHOALS) system to collect high-resolution bathymetry for 33 km of the Hanford Reach. Data were used in conjunction with hydrodynamic and predictive habitat models within a GIS (Geographical Information System) framework to evaluate the effects of a varying hydrograph on juvenile fall Chinook salmon rearing habitat and risk from stranding and entrapment. Furthermore, we were able to estimate the number of juvenile fish that were stranded and entrapped in pools when operations at Priest Rapids Dam caused rapid decreases in river flows. Our findings were ultimately used to estimate impacts of power generation operations at Priest Rapids Dam and develop long-term policy and operational guidelines to protect juvenile fall Chinook salmon during the spring rearing period.

Book

Strategic plan for the National Mapping Divison of the U.S. Geological Survey

The National Mapping Division (NMD) has developed this comprehensive strategic plan to chart its course over the next decade. To meet the challenge of the future, the NMD is changing its program emphasis, methods of responding to customer need and business practices. The NMD Strategic Plan identifies the new direction for the Division through a series of goals and actions for managers to use in formulating plans, establishing program emphasis, and determining resource needs and allocations into the next century. The Plan refines the NMD mission on the basis of several key issues that are expected to face the Division in the next decade. Th first of these is the continuing advances in technology and telecommunications. Related to this is the growth in the use of geographic information systems (GIS) and the demand for data to use in GIS's. Also, a trend exists toward decreasing cost of both the data and the systems, leading to even more demand for and use of data and technology by more users. Another is a changing customer base and increasing demand for NMD products and services. Finally, the financial resource available to the NMD are anticipated to remain relatively static. The Plan assumes that a much greater reliance on partnerships with other government agencies and the private sector for production activities will be permanent. It calls for significantly greater emphasis on the inherently governmental information management responsibilities and on geographic research to support the Division's mission. Multipartner consortia and shared funding agreements will constitute the basis for meeting most mapping needs in the future, with the NMD appropriation focused on map revision in areas of importance to the Federal Government. Mapping Centers will be encouraged to increase partnership agreements to meet mission requirements. The Division will continue to constrain employment, targeting new hiring to specific skills needed to support the revised mission in areas such as quality assurance, data standards development and maintenance, contract management, and information management. Retraining opportunities for current employees will be a high priority. The Bureau Strategic Plan was reviewed carefully to assure that the NMD Strategic Plan would be consistent with it. The Division planning team built on the conclusion of the Bureau Plan regarding the political, economic, societal, and global force that will affect our program in the future. The NMD Strategic Plan also embraces all of the core competencies and business activities.

Report

The National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the sandy shorelines of the California coast

Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the California coastline at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1219/ for additional information regarding methods and results (Hapke et al., 2006). Data in this report are organized into downloadable layers by region (Northern, Central and Southern California) and are provided as vector datasets with metadata. Vector shorelines may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and these sources are included in the dataset metadata. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS as it's GIS mapping tool and contains several data layers (shapefiles) that are used to create a geographic view of the California Coast. These vector data form a basemap comprised of polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

California

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper

Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored occasionally. We present a hierarchical multi-population viability analysis model that increases inference power from sparse data by sharing information among populations to assess extinction risks while accounting for incomplete detection and sampling biases with explicit observation and sampling sub-models. We present a case study in which we customized this model for historical population monitoring data (1985–2015) from federally threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in the Great Basin, USA. Data were counts of fish captured during backpack electrofishing surveys from locations associated with 155 isolated populations. Some surveys (25%) included multi-pass removal sampling, which provided valuable information about capture efficiency. GIS and remote sensing were used to estimate August stream temperatures, peak flows, and riparian vegetation condition in each population each year. Field data were used to derive an annual index of nonnative trout densities. Results indicated that population growth rates were higher in colder streams and that nonnative trout reduced carrying capacities of native trout. Extinction risks increased with more environmental stochasticity and were also related to population extent, water temperatures, and nonnative densities. We developed a graphical user interface to interact with the fitted model results and to simulate future habitat scenarios and management actions to assess their influence on extinction risks in each population. Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis bridges the gap between site-level field observations and population-level processes, making effective use of existing datasets to support management decisions with robust estimates of population dynamics, extinction risks, and uncertainties.

Ecology