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USGS2024

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (−2.9 to −5.1 Bm 3 ) and Monterey counties (−6.5 to −8.7 Bm 3 ), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

California↗
USGS2016

Hydropower assessment of Bolivia—A multisource satellite data and hydrologic modeling approach

This study produced a geospatial database for use in a decision support system by the Bolivian authorities to investigate further development and investment potentials in sustainable hydropower in Bolivia. The study assessed theoretical hydropower of all 1-kilometer (km) stream segments in the country using multisource satellite data and a hydrologic modeling approach. With the assessment covering the 2 million square kilometer (km 2 ) region influencing Bolivia’s drainage network, the potential hydropower figures are based on theoretical yield assuming that the systems generating the power are 100 percent efficient. There are several factors to consider when determining the real-world or technical power potential of a hydropower system, and these factors can vary depending on local conditions. Since this assessment covers a large area, it was necessary to reduce these variables to the two that can be modeled consistently throughout the region, streamflow or discharge, and elevation drop or head. First, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission high-resolution 30-meter (m) digital elevation model was used to identify stream segments with greater than 10 km 2 of upstream drainage. We applied several preconditioning processes to the 30-m digital elevation model to reduce errors and improve the accuracy of stream delineation and head height estimation. A total of 316,500 1-km stream segments were identified and used in this study to assess the total theoretical hydropower potential of Bolivia. Precipitation observations from a total of 463 stations obtained from the Bolivian Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (Bolivian National Meteorology and Hydrology Service) and the Brazilian Agência Nacional de Águas (Brazilian National Water Agency) were used to validate six different gridded precipitation estimates for Bolivia obtained from various sources. Validation results indicated that gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) reanalysis product (3B43) had the highest accuracies. The coarse-resolution (25-km) TRMM data were disaggregated to 5-km pixels using climatology information obtained from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset. About a 17-percent bias was observed in the disaggregated TRMM estimates, which was corrected using the station observations. The bias-corrected, disaggregated TRMM precipitation estimate was used to compute stream discharge using a regionalization approach. In regionalization approach, required homogeneous regions for Bolivia were derived from precipitation patterns and topographic characteristics using a k -means clustering approach. Using the discharge and head height estimates for each 1-km stream segment, we computed hydropower potential for 316,490 stream segments within Bolivia and that share borders with Bolivia. The total theoretical hydropower potential (TTHP) of these stream segments was found to be 212 gigawatts (GW). Out of this total, 77.4 GW was within protected areas where hydropower projects cannot be developed; hence, the remaining total theoretical hydropower in Bolivia (outside the protected areas) was estimated as 135 GW. Nearly 1,000 1-km stream segments, however, were within the boundaries of existing hydropower projects. The TTHP of these stream segments was nearly 1.4 GW, so the residual TTHP of the streams in Bolivia was estimated as 133 GW. Care should be exercised to understand and interpret the TTHP identified in this study because all the stream segments identified and assessed in this study cannot be harnessed to their full capacity; furthermore, factors such as required environmental flows, efficiency, economics, and feasibility need to be considered to better identify a more real-world hydropower potential. If environmental flow requirements of 20–40 percent are considered, the total theoretical power available reduces by 60–80 percent. In addition, a 0.72 efficiency factor further reduces the estimation by another 28 percent. This study provides the base theoretical hydropower potential for Bolivia, the next step is to identify optimal hydropower plant locations and factor in the principles to appraise a real-world power potential in Bolivia.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Hydrologic, soil, and vegetation gradients in remnant and constructed riparian wetlands in west-central Missouri, 2001-04

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation at the Four Rivers Conservation Area (west-central Missouri), between January 2001 and March 2004, to examine the relations between environmental factors (hydrology, soils, elevation, and landform type) and the spatial distribution of vegetation in remnant and constructed riparian wetlands. Vegetation characterization included species composition of ground, understory, and overstory layers in selected landforms of a remnant bottomland hardwood ecosystem, monitoring survival and growth of reforestation plots in leveed and partially leveed constructed wetlands, and determining gradients in colonization of herbaceous vegetation in a constructed wetland. Similar environmental factors accounted for variation in the distribution of ground, understory, and overstory vegetation in the remnant bottomland forest plots. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of vegetation in the ground layer were elevation, soil texture (clay and silt content), flooding inundation duration, and ponding duration, while the distribution of vegetation in the understory layer was described by elevation, soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content), total flooding and ponding inundation duration, and distance from the Marmaton or Little Osage River. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of overstory vegetation in Unit 1 were elevation, soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content), total flooding and ponding inundation duration, ponding duration, and to some extent, flooding inundation duration. Overall, the composition and structure of the remnant bottomland forest is indicative of a healthy, relatively undisturbed flood plain forest. Dominant species have a distribution of individuals that shows regeneration of these species with significant recruitment in the smaller size classes. The bottomland forest is an area whose overall hydrology has not been significantly altered; however, portions of the area have suffered from hydrologic alteration by a drainage ditch that is resulting in the displacement of swamp and marsh species by colonizing shrub and tree species. This area likely will continue to develop into an immature flood plain forest under the current (2004) hydrologic regime. Reforestation plots in constructed wetlands consisted of sampling survival and growth of multiple tree species (Quercus palustris, pin oak; Carya illinoiensis, pecan) established under several production methods and planted at multiple elevations. Comparison of survival between tree species and production types showed no significant differences for all comparisons. Survival was high for both species and all production types, with the highest mortality seen in the mounded root production method (RPM®) Quercus palustris (pin oak, 6.9 percent), while direct seeded Quercus palustris at middle elevation and bare root Quercus palustris seedlings at the low elevation plots had 100 percent survival. Measures of growth (diameter and height) were assessed among species, production types, and elevation by analyzing relative growth. The greatest rate of tree diameter (72.3 percent) and height (65.3 percent) growth was observed for direct seeded Quercus palustris trees planted at a middle elevation site. Natural colonized vegetation data were collected at multiple elevations within an abandoned cropland area of a constructed wetland. The primary measured determining factors in the distribution of herbaceous vegetation in this area were elevation, ponding duration, and soil texture. Richness, evenness, and diversity were all significantly greater in the highest elevation plots as a result of more recent disturbance in this area. While flood frequency and duration define the delivery mechanism for inundation on the flood plain, it is the duration of ponding and amount of “topographic capture” of these floodwaters in fluvial landforms that largely determines the survivability and distribution of tree species in both remnant and constructed wetlands. Ponding, flooding, ground-water levels, and precipitation all accounted for saturated conditions in the upper soil profiles in the Four Rivers Conservation Area monitoring sites. Of these processes, ponding and flooding were the primary factors accounting for soil saturation conditions. The identification of landform features in undisturbed settings, therefore, can be an important aide in predicting the sustainable spatial distribution of various plant species in riparian revegetation projects.

Missouri↗
USGS2018

Groundwater contributions to excessive algal growth in the East Fork Carson River, Carson Valley, west-central Nevada, 2010 and 2012

Excessive algal growth and low dissolved oxygen concentrations were observed during low streamflow conditions during summer months along a 5,800-foot reach of the East Fork Carson River in Carson Valley, west-central Nevada. Algal growth from nutrient enrichment of a stream reduces aquatic diversity, threatens fish ecology and stream health, and can be a recreational nuisance. In response to concerns that groundwater discharging to the 5,800-foot reach of the East Fork Carson River may be a source of nutrients to the stream, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Carson Water Subconservancy District and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, conducted studies during the summers of 2010 and 2012 to gain an improved understanding of the contributions of nutrients to the stream from groundwater, characterize algal conditions and algal effects on water quality, assess potential sources of nitrate in groundwater discharging to the stream, and evaluate nitrate reduction in groundwater from denitrification. A reconnaissance study in the summer of 2010 along the 5,800-foot study reach located a subreach with clear evidence of nutrient-rich groundwater discharging to the stream. At the subreach, nitrate plus nitrite (referred to hereafter as nitrate) concentrations in groundwater discharging to the stream were high (average 2.75 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) along the right bank. The stream at this location had the highest stream nitrate concentrations (average 0.056 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) compared to other locations upstream and downstream of the subreach. As a result, the 2012 study focused on a 405-foot subreach of the East Fork Carson River centered where results from the 2010 study found the highest stream and groundwater concentrations of nitrate, as well as the greatest observed contributions of groundwater discharge to the stream. Groundwater nutrient concentrations were much higher than stream nutrient concentrations during the summer of 2012 during low streamflow conditions at the 405-foot subreach of the East Fork Carson River. Average groundwater nitrate and orthophosphate concentrations along the right bank of the 405‑foot subreach were 9 and 12 times higher, respectively, than in the stream at this subreach. Groundwater discharge rates to the study reach based on different methods varied from 0.09 to 1.2 cubic feet per second per mile. Estimated groundwater discharge rates to the right bank of the study subreach were used to calculate groundwater nutrient load estimates to the subreach right bank, which were found to be low when compared to stream nutrient loads. Elevated algal biomass levels above nuisance thresholds were observed during the summers of 2010 and 2012. The study reach was characterized as mesotrophic-eutrophic during the 2010 study and eutrophic during the 2012 study. The presence of algae caused daily dissolved oxygen and pH fluctuations in the stream, resulting in exceedances of the State of Nevada water-quality standards owing to low dissolved oxygen concentrations and high pH concentrations, although the standards might not have been applicable during 2012 because of extremely low streamflow. The addition of nutrients to the stream from the constant supply in groundwater discharge sustains the growth of algae during low streamflow conditions. In the summer when streamflow is low or very low, nutrient-rich groundwater discharge enters the stream through the sediment-water interface at the streambed. Because the attached algae is thick and stream velocity is low, the nutrient-rich water pools at the sediment-water interface. Higher nutrient concentrations at the streambed create a favorable microenvironment for algae attached to the substrate to consume available nutrients from the groundwater before the groundwater mixes with overlying stream water. The source of nitrate in groundwater in this subreach is anthropogenic because nitrate concentrations are greater than background groundwater nitrate concentrations in Douglas County, high groundwater nitrate concentrations are only found at the right bank of the stream near a housing development, and organic wastewater compounds indicative of human-derived sources were also detected in groundwater wells on the right bank of the stream. Nitrogen and oxygen isotope concentrations of nitrate in shallow groundwater were used to determine the specific source of the nitrate, but the isotopic values indicated denitrification was occurring. Further investigation is needed to determine the specific anthropogenic source of the nitrate in the groundwater because the denitrification present in all samples obscures the original source of nitrogen.

Nevada↗
USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2011

Monitoring to assess progress toward meeting the Assabet River, Massachusetts, phosphorus total maximum daily load - Aquatic macrophyte biomass and sediment-phosphorus flux

In 2004, the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for Total Phosphorus in the Assabet River, Massachusetts, was approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The goal of the TMDL was to decrease the concentrations of the nutrient phosphorus to mitigate some of the instream ecological effects of eutrophication on the river; these effects were, for the most part, direct consequences of the excessive growth of aquatic macrophytes. The primary instrument effecting lower concentrations of phosphorus was to be strict control of phosphorus releases from four major wastewatertreatment plants in Westborough, Marlborough, Hudson, and Maynard, Massachusetts. The improvements to be achieved from implementing this control were lower concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus in the river, a 50-percent reduction in aquatic-plant biomass, a 30-percent reduction in episodes of dissolved oxygen supersaturation, no low-flow dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 5.0 milligrams per liter, and a 90-percent reduction in sediment releases of phosphorus to the overlying water. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, initiated studies to evaluate conditions in the Assabet River prior to the upgrading of wastewater-treatment plants to remove more phosphorus from their effluents. The studies, completed in 2008, implemented a visual monitoring plan to evaluate the extent and biomass of the floating macrophyte Lemna minor (commonly known as lesser duckweed) in five impoundments and evaluated the potential for phosphorus flux from sediments in impounded and free-flowing reaches of the river. Hydrologically, the two study years 2007 and 2008 were quite different. In 2007, summer streamflows, although low, were higher than average, and in 2008, the flows were generally higher than in 2007. Visually, the effects of these streamflow differences on the distribution of Lemna were obvious. In 2007, large amounts of floating macrophytes accumulated behind bridge constrictions and dams; in 2008, high flows during the early part of the growing season carried floating macrophytes past bridges and over dams, minimizing accumulations. Samples of Lemna were collected and weighed to provide an estimate of Lemna biomass based on areal coverage during the summer growing seasons at eight sites in the five impoundments. Average estimated biomass during 2007 was approximately twice the 2008 biomass in each of the areas monitored. In 2007, in situ hyperspectral and high-resolution, multispectral data from the IKONOS satellite were obtained to evaluate the feasibility of using remote sensing to monitor the extent of aquatic plant growth in Assabet River impoundments. Three vegetation indices based on light reflectance were used to develop metrics with which the hyperspectral and satellite data were compared. The results of the comparisons confirmed that the high-resolution satellite imagery could differentiate among the common aquatic-plant associations found in the impoundments. The use of satellite imagery could counterbalance emphasis on the subjective judgment of a human observer, and airborne hyperspectral data can provide higher resolution imagery than multispectral satellite data. In 2007 and 2008, the potential for sediment flux of phosphorus was examined in free-flowing reaches of the river and in the two largest impoundments-Hudson and Ben Smith. These studies were undertaken to determine in situ flux rates prior to the implementation of the Assabet River Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for phosphorus and to compare these rates with those used in the development and evaluation of the TMDL. Water samples collected from a chamber placed on the river bottom were analyzed for total phosphorus and orthophosphorus. Ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations and seasonal temperature differences appeared to affect the rates of sequestration and sediment release of phosphorus. When dissolved oxygen concentrations remained relatively high in the chambers and when the temperature was relatively low, the tendency was for phosphorus concentrations to decrease in the chambers, indicating sediment sequestration of phosphorus; when dissolved oxygen concentrations dropped to near zero and temperatures were warmest, phosphorus concentrations increased in the chambers, indicating phosphorus flux from the sediment. The rates of release and sequestration in the in situ studies were generally comparable with the rates determined in laboratory studies of Assabet River sediment cores for State and Federal agencies. Sediment-core and chamber studies produced substantial sediment fluxes to the water column only under extremely low-DO or anaerobic conditions rarely found in the Assabet River impoundments; thus, sediment is not likely to be a major phosphorus source, especially when compared to the wastewater effluent, which sustains higher ambient concentrations. The regulatory agencies now (2011) have substantial laboratory and field data with which to determine the required 90-percent reduction in phosphorus flux after the completion of upgrades to the wastewater-treatment plants that discharge to the Assabet River.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2014

Deposit model for heavy-mineral sands in coastal environments

This report provides a descriptive model of heavy-mineral sands, which are sedimentary deposits of dense minerals that accumulate with sand, silt, and clay in coastal environments, locally forming economic concentrations of the heavy minerals. This deposit type is the main source of titanium feedstock for the titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) pigments industry, through recovery of the minerals ilmenite (Fe 2+ TiO 3 ), rutile (TiO 2 ), and leucoxene (an alteration product of ilmenite). Heavy-mineral sands are also the principal source of zircon (ZrSiO 4 ) and its zirconium oxide; zircon is often recovered as a coproduct. Other heavy minerals produced as coproducts from some deposits are sillimanite/kyanite, staurolite, monazite, and garnet. Monazite [(Ce,La,Nd,Th)PO 4 ] is a source of rare earth elements as well as thorium, which is used in thorium-based nuclear power under development in India and elsewhere. The processes that form coastal deposits of heavy-mineral sands begin inland. High-grade metamorphic and igneous rocks that contain heavy minerals weather and erode, contributing detritus composed of sand, silt, clay, and heavy minerals to fluvial systems. Streams and rivers carry the detritus to the coast, where they are deposited in a variety of coastal environments, such as deltas, the beach face (foreshore), the nearshore, barrier islands or dunes, and tidal lagoons, as well as the channels and floodplains of streams and rivers in the coastal plain. The sediments are reworked by waves, tides, longshore currents, and wind, which are effective mechanisms for sorting the mineral grains on the basis of differences in their size and density. The finest-grained, most dense heavy minerals are the most effectively sorted. The result is that heavy minerals accumulate together, forming laminated or lens-shaped, heavy-mineral-rich sedimentary packages that can be several meters and even as much as tens of meters thick. Most economic deposits of heavy-mineral sands are Paleogene, Neogene, and Quaternary in age; some are modern coastal deposits. Superimposed on these basic processes of ore formation are a multitude of contributing and modifying factors, such as the following: Strong, sustained wave action moves sand from offshore to the shore, where the sand and heavy minerals are sorted by size and density. Mineral sorting occurs mainly on the upper part of the hightide swash (wave) zone. Fine-grained sands and heavy minerals on the foreshore can be remobilized by winds, forming heavy mineral-rich sand dunes behind the beach. Longshore drift combined with the geomorphology of the coast exert strong influence on the location of the heavy-mineral sands deposits. Sea level changes are a function of climatic changes, such as ice ages. Rises in regional sea level (transgression) and lowering of sea level (regression) strongly influence the deposition and preservation of heavy-mineral sands. The majority of heavy-mineral sands accumulation appears related to seaward progradation of the shore during regression events. Local faulting may affect the geomorphology of the coast, which controls the distribution of heavy mineral deposition in a coastal basin. Heavy mineral grains appear to weather primarily after their deposition in the coastal plain; this weathering is caused by groundwaters, humic acids, and other intrabasinal fluids. This weathering can enhance the TiO 2 content of ilmenite. Iron is leached from ilmenite during weathering, which thereby upgrades the TiO 2 content of the ilmenite, forming leucoxene. The resulting deposits of heavy-mineral sands can be voluminous. Individual bodies of heavy mineral-rich sands are typically about 1 kilometer wide and more than 5 kilometers long. Many heavy-mineral sands districts extend for more than 10 kilometers and contain several individual deposits that are spread along an ancient or modern strandline. Reported thicknesses of economic deposits range from 3 to 45 meters. Individual ore deposits typically comprise at least 10 megatonnes of ore (the total size of the individual sand-silt body), whose overall heavy-mineral content is 2 to greater than 10 percent. Heavy-mineral sands deposits are relatively easy to mine because they are weakly to poorly consolidated, and they are relatively easy to process. From a geoenvironmental standpoint, mining of heavy mineral-sands generates little or no acid or solubilized metals. However, environmental and human health concerns related to such mining include potential effects on indigenous flora and fauna, effects on local hydrology, and issues related to processing and storing thorium-bearing monazite, owing to its radioactivity. Regional exploration for deposits of heavy-mineral sands can utilize the analyses of stream sediment samples for Ti, Hf, the rare earth elements, Th, and U, and geophysical surveys, particularly radiometric (gamma-ray spectrometry for K, U, and Th) and magnetic methods. Geophysical anomalies may be small, and surveys are generally more successful when conducted close to sources of interest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Availability, sustainability, and suitability of ground water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado: Types of analyses and data for use in subdivision water-supply reports

The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers Mesa consists of alluvial-fan deposits that overlie shale and, locally, sandstone. Maps of the base of the aquifer, the water table, and the saturated thickness of the aquifer were prepared from data from the well files of the Colorado Division of Water Resources. The base of the aquifer generally is topographically higher than the valleys of the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek, and direct hydraulic connection of the aquifer to North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek is limited. The aquifer is recharged primarily by infiltration of surface water diverted for irrigation. Ground water discharges to seeps and springs and through slope deposits at the boundaries of the aquifer. Data from the well files also were used to estimate the specific capacity of wells and to estimate the transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. A water budget was used to estimate recharge to and discharge from the aquifer. Although storage within the aquifer likely varies seasonally and from year to year, it was assumed that there were no long-term changes in ground-water storage. Estimated average annual recharge to and discharge from the aquifer during November 1998 through October 2006 were about 30,767 acre-feet per year. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although sufficient ground water is available on Rogers Mesa for additional domestic water supplies, conversion of irrigated land to residential land use likely would reduce recharge to the aquifer, affecting the sustainability of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa. Stream-depletion analyses indicate that the ground water in the aquifer likely would be considered tributary ground water and additional uses of ground water to supply new subdivisions likely would require implementation of augmentation plans. Although the dissolved solids and dissolved sulfate concentrations in ground water from Rogers Mesa aquifer commonly exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels for drinking-water supplies, the quality of ground water from the aquifer generally is suitable for residential use. Concentrations of total nitrogen (nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen) in ground water ranged from 0.38 to 3.2 milligrams per liter and were less than the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level of 10 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of selenium from seeps and springs at the boundaries of the aquifer commonly exceeded 50 micrograms per liter, the State of Colorado maximum contaminant level for drinking-water supplies. This preliminary evaluation of ground-water supplies on Rogers Mesa could be improved with the collection of additional data including: additional mapping of hydrogeologic features; more accurate locations and altitudes of wells; accurate estimates of water-budget components; measurements of ground-water levels; and collection and analyses of ground-water samples. The use of numerical models of ground-water flow could improve evaluations of the potential effects of changes in land and water use on the water budget, aquifer storage, stream depletion, and well interference.

Colorado↗
USGS2014

Hydrogeology and hydrology of the Punta Cabullones wetland area, Ponce, southern Puerto Rico, 2007-08

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Municipio Autónomo de Ponce and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, conducted a study of the hydrogeology and hydrology of the Punta Cabullones area in Ponce, southern Puerto Rico. (Punta Cabullones is also referred to as Punta Cabullón.) The Punta Cabullones area is about 9 square miles and is an ecological system made up of a wetland, tidal flats, saltflats, mangrove forests, and a small fringing reef located a short distance offshore. The swales or depressions between successive beach ridges became development avenues for saline to hypersaline wetlands. The Punta Cabullones area was designated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as a coastal barrier in the 1980s because of its capacity to act as a buffer zone to ameliorate the impacts of natural phenomenon such as storm surges. Since 2003, Punta Cabullones has been set aside for preservation as part of the mitigation effort mandated by Federal and State laws to compensate for the potential environmental effects that might be caused by the construction of the Las Américas Transshipment Port. Total rainfall measured during 2008 within the Punta Cabullones area was 36 inches, which is slightly greater than the long-term annual average of 32 inches for the coastal plain near Ponce. Two evapotranspiration estimates, 29 and 37 inches, were obtained for the subarea of the Punta Cabullones area that is underlain by fan-delta and alluvial deposits by using two variants of the Penman semi-empirical equation. The long-term water stage and chemical character of the wetland in Punta Cabullones are highly dependent on the seasonal and annual variations of both rainfall and sea-wave activity. Also, unseasonal short-term above-normal rainfall and sea-wave events resulting from passing storms may induce substantial changes in the water stage and the chemical character of the wetland. In general, tidal fluctuations exert a minor role in modifying the water quality and stage of the wetland in Punta Cabullones. The role of the tidal fluctuations becomes important during those times when the outlets/inlets to the sea are not blocked by a sand bar and is allowed to freely flow into the wetland interior. The salinity of the wetland varies from brackish to hypersaline. The hypersaline conditions, including the occurrence of saltflats, within the Punta Cabullones wetland area result from a high evapotranspiration rate. The hypersaline conditions are further enhanced by a sand bar that blocks the inlet/outlet of the wetland’s easternmost channel, particularly during the dry season. Groundwater in Punta Cabullones mostly is present within beds of silisiclastic sand and gravel. During the study period, the depth to groundwater did not exceed 4 feet below land surface. The movement and direction of the groundwater flow in Punta Cabullones are driven by density variations that in turn result from the wide range of salinities in the groundwater. The salinity of the groundwater decreases within the first 60 to 100 feet of depth and decreases outward from a mound of hypersaline groundwater centered on piezometer nest PN2. The main groundwater types within the Punta Cabullones area vary from calcium-bicarbonate type in the northernmost part of the study area to a predominantly sodium-potassium-chloride groundwater type southward. According to stable-isotope data, groundwater within the study area is both modern meteoric water and seawater highly affected by evaporation. The chemical and stable-isotopic character of local groundwater is highly influenced by evapotranspiration because of its shallow depth. Equivalent freshwater heads indicate groundwater moves away from a mound centered on piezometer nest PN2, in a pattern similar to the spatial distribution of groundwater salinity. Vertical groundwater flow occurs in Punta Cabullones due to local differences in density. In the wetland subarea of Punta Cabullones, groundwater and surface water are hydraulically coupled. Locally, surface-hypersaline water sinks into the aquifer, providing recharge and serving as a mechanism to redistribute salt throughout the study area. The evapotranspiration in the wetland subarea is estimated at about 11 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) that is equivalent to about 12,586 acre-feet per year. The balance of evapotranspiration, in excess of the about 0.5 Mgal/d of groundwater flow within the wetland, is supplied by saline to hypersaline surface water that may include seawater and meteoric water highly affected by evaporation with dissolved salts. In one of the extreme scenarios in which no groundwater is intercepted by pumpage at the Restaurada well field, the amount of saline to hypersaline water in the wetland consumed by evapotranspiration is about 10.5 Mgal/d. In the opposite extreme in which the entire regional groundwater flow is intercepted by pumpage in the Restaurada well field, the entire evapotranpiration requirement is met by saline to hypersaline water. Hydrologic, isotopic, and chemical data indicate that all of, or a large portion of, the historical groundwater flow to Punta Cabullones is being captured by the Puerto Rico Aqueducts and Sewer Authority pumpage at the Restaurada well field at a rate of about 2 Mgal/d. As a consequence, seawater intrusion into the aquifer at the Punta Cabullones area seems to be occurring, while the current pumpage at the Restaurada well field is sustained by storage depletion of the aquifer.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2024

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Long Island, New York regional aquifer system for pumping and recharge conditions from 1900 to 2019

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a transient, groundwater-flow model that simulates hydrologic conditions in the Long Island aquifer system as part of an ongoing (since 2016) multiyear, cooperative investigation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The goals of this investigation are to assist stakeholders and resource managers to evaluate the response of the hydrologic system to changes in future hydraulic stresses. Responses in the hydrologic system include changes in water levels in the hydrogeologic units; discharge to streams, coastal waters, and subsurface infrastructure; and the extent of saline groundwater in the aquifers. Hydraulic stresses include future water-supply management and changes in land use and infrastructure. The numerical model synthesizes a diverse set of physiographic, geologic, climatic, land-use, and historical population, water use, and infrastructure data to physically represent the Long Island aquifer system from land surface to bedrock and to simulate annual hydrologic conditions between 1900 and 2019. A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework was developed from existing and recently collected borehole geologic and geophysical data collected as part of a companion drilling program. Water-transmitting properties of the principal aquifer sediments were defined in three dimensions from new and existing lithologic logs. The distribution of recharge from precipitation was estimated from landscape characteristics and climate data. Anthropogenic recharge from wastewater, leaky infrastructure, and storm runoff were estimated from population, infrastructure, and pumping data. Water-use data, including well locations, depths, and pumping rates, were obtained from historical sources and records and used to estimate pumping stresses continuously in time and space, at an annual average time scale. The data were incorporated into a three-dimensional numerical model using the U.S. Geological Survey finite difference modeling code MODFLOW 6; the model encompassed all of Long Island and surrounding surface waters and simulated historical hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibration process involved trial and error adjustments using prior knowledge to improve general fit to observations followed by an inverse calibration to update and optimize input parameters, using an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm implemented in PEST++ version 5.0. This resulted in a model that generally was in good agreement with observed, dynamically varying hydrologic conditions from 1900 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to develop two base-case models for scenario testing of future, hypothetical conditions where one represented average-annual conditions, and one represented average-seasonal conditions from 2010 to 2019. The model representing average-annual conditions was modified further to represent an alternate sea-level position of 6 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and the model representing average-seasonal conditions was modified to represent the average seasonal effects of a 5-year drought imposed upon current hydrologic conditions. Recharge is the sole source of water to the aquifer system; groundwater discharges to coastal water and streams and is withdrawn by pumped wells. Model-estimated annual recharge ranged from about 11 inches in 1965 to 41 inches in 1983. On average, from 2010 to 2019, about 23 percent of water was pumped from wells, and about 47 and 27 percent discharged to coastal waters and streams, respectively; the remaining 4 percent was water that moved into storage in the aquifer matrix. Water levels on Long Island vary naturally during time in response to changes in recharge; the amount of variation is largest in the interior of the island, in areas with highest water table altitudes near groundwater divides and lowest near streams and the coastal waters. The total range of water table altitudes on Long Island between 1900 and 2019 ranged from near 0 to more than 70 feet in western parts of Long Island. The largest range in altitudes is in New York City and is associated with areas of large historical withdrawals between the 1920s and the late 1980s. Water table altitudes generally varied by less than 10 feet in eastern Suffolk County, where the aquifer is under more natural conditions. Saltwater intrusion is of great concern on Long Island, particularly in western Long Island where both the unconfined and confined parts of the aquifer system have been intruded in response to large-scale groundwater withdrawals; however, the volume of freshwater in the islandwide aquifer system only has changed by about 5 percent between 1900 and 2019. The decadal change in the freshwater volume was largest during the early and mid-20th century, corresponding to the largest historical pumping, but that volume change did not exceed 1 percent. The negligible change in freshwater volume suggests that saltwater intrusion as of 2019 was limited at an islandwide scale but continues to occur in local areas of Queens and Nassau Counties, adversely affecting current water supplies and limiting future water supplies for affected communities. The regional groundwater model developed for this investigation is a tool that can be used to help determine the viability of current and future water supplies at a regional scale and can be used to support development of additional models at finer scale to support more focused assessments of groundwater sustainability.

New York↗
USGS2013

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J↗