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Developing a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment framework for Pacific sources: USGS Powell Center meeting summary

Multi-organizational principal investigators formed a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Powell Center Working Group (WG), Tsunami Source Standardization for Hazards Mitigation in the United States, to develop a comprehensive series of sources capable of generating tsunamis that could impact U.S. state and territory coastal areas using probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). PTHA results are commonly used to provide consistent tsunami hazard information for use in engineering and risk assessment and, to a lesser extent, hazard response planning. Following an initial weeklong planning meeting in April 2018, designed to establish the WG’s scope, a series of weeklong meetings devoted to aspects of tsunami hazards placed emphasis on assessment of various tsunami sources, including subduction zones in Alaska, the Atlantic and Caribbean, Cascadia, and the Pacific Basin, as well as landslides in Alaska, the Atlantic, and the Caribbean. The final meeting in the series discussed tsunami sources from crustal faults. These meetings, each with a regional geographic focus, were designed to incorporate reviews and feedback from subject matter experts (SMEs) in academia, private industry, and federal, state, and local governmental organizations. Incorporating consensus from SMEs is important because the results derived from the tsunami source models will be used to inform the public about potential hazards from tsunamis related to safety concerns. This paper describes the USGS Powell Center meeting in March 2023, devoted specifically to developing a PTHA for tsunami sources in the Pacific Ocean Basin other than the Alaska–Aleutian and Cascadia subduction zones that were addressed during previous WG meetings.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience

Survey of hydrologic models and hydrologic data needs for tracking flow in the Rio Grande, north-central New Mexico, 2010

The six Middle Rio Grande Pueblos have prior and paramount rights to deliveries of water from the Rio Grande for their use. When the pueblos or the Bureau of Indian Affairs Designated Engineer identifies a need for additional flow on the Rio Grande, the Designated Engineer is tasked with deciding the timing and amount of releases of prior and paramount water from storage at El Vado Reservoir to meet the needs of the pueblos. Over the last three decades, numerous models have been developed by Federal, State, and local agencies in New Mexico to simulate, understand, and (or) manage flows in the Middle Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. In 2008, the Coalition of Six Middle Rio Grande Basin Pueblos entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a comprehensive survey of these hydrologic models and their capacity to quantify and track various components of flow. The survey of hydrologic models provided in this report will help water-resource managers at the pueblos, as well as the Designated Engineer, make informed water-resource-management decisions that affect the prior and paramount water use. Analysis of 4 publicly available surface-water models and 13 publicly available groundwater models shows that, although elements from many models can be helpful in tracking flow in the Rio Grande, numerous data gaps and modeling needs indicate that accurate, consistent, and timely tracking of flow on the Rio Grande could be improved. Deficient or poorly constrained hydrologic variables are sources of uncertainty in hydrologic models that can be reduced with the acquisition of more refined data. Data gaps need to be filled to allow hydrologic models to be run on a real-time basis and thus ensure predictable water deliveries to meet needs for irrigation, domestic, stock, and other water uses. Timeliness of flow-data reporting is necessary to facilitate real-time model simulation, but even daily data are sometimes difficult to obtain because the data come from multiple sources. Each surface-water model produces results that could be helpful in quantifying the flow of the Rio Grande, specifically by helping to track water as it moves down the channel of the Rio Grande and by improving the understanding of river hydraulics for the specified reaches. The ability of each surface-water model to track flow on the Rio Grande varies according to the purpose for which each model was designed. The purpose of Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model (URGWOM) - to simulate water storage and delivery operations in the Rio Grande - is more applicable to tracking flow on the Rio Grande than are any of the other surface-water models surveyed. Specifically, the strengths of URGWOM in relation to modeling flow are the details and attention given to the accounting of Rio Grande flow and San Juan-Chama flow at a daily time step. The most significant difficulty in using any of the surveyed surface-water models for the purpose of predicting the need for requested water releases is that none of the surface-water models surveyed consider water accounting on a real-time basis. Groundwater models that provide detailed simulations of shallow groundwater flow in the vicinity of the Rio Grande can provide large-scale estimates of flow between the Rio Grande and shallow aquifers, which can be an important component of the Rio Grande water budget as a whole. The groundwater models surveyed for this report cannot, however, be expected to provide simulations of flow at time scales of less than the simulated time step (1 month to 1 year in most cases). Of those of the currently used groundwater models, the purpose of model 13 - to simulate the shallow riparian groundwater environment - is the most appropriate for examining local-scale surface-water/groundwater interactions. The basin-scale models, however, are also important in understanding the large-scale water balances between the aquifers and the surface water. In the case of the Upper and Middle Rio Grande Valley, models 6, 10, and 12 are the most accurate and current groundwater models available.

Colorado;New Mexico

Blind test of methods for obtaining 2-D near-surface seismic velocity models from first-arrival traveltimes

Seismic refraction methods are used in environmental and engineering studies to image the shallow subsurface. We present a blind test of inversion and tomographic refraction analysis methods using a synthetic first-arrival-time dataset that was made available to the community in 2010. The data are realistic in terms of the near-surface velocity model, shot-receiver geometry and the data's frequency and added noise. Fourteen estimated models were determined by ten participants using eight different inversion algorithms, with the true model unknown to the participants until it was revealed at a session at the 2011 SAGEEP meeting. The estimated models are generally consistent in terms of their large-scale features, demonstrating the robustness of refraction data inversion in general, and the eight inversion algorithms in particular. When compared to the true model, all of the estimated models contain a smooth expression of its two main features: a large offset in the bedrock and the top of a steeply dipping low-velocity fault zone. The estimated models do not contain a subtle low-velocity zone and other fine-scale features, in accord with conventional wisdom. Together, the results support confidence in the reliability and robustness of modern refraction inversion and tomographic methods.

Journal of Environmental & Engineering Geophysics

Shear-wave velocity-based probabilistic and deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential

Shear-wave velocity (V s ) offers a means to determine the seismic resistance of soil to liquefaction by a fundamental soil property. This paper presents the results of an 11-year international project to gather new V s site data and develop probabilistic correlations for seismic soil liquefaction occurrence. Toward that objective, shear-wave velocity test sites were identified, and measurements made for 301 new liquefaction field case histories in China, Japan, Taiwan, Greece, and the United States over a decade. The majority of these new case histories reoccupy those previously investigated by penetration testing. These new data are combined with previously published case histories to build a global catalog of 422 case histories of V s liquefaction performance. Bayesian regression and structural reliability methods facilitate a probabilistic treatment of the V s catalog for performance-based engineering applications. Where possible, uncertainties of the variables comprising both the seismic demand and the soil capacity were estimated and included in the analysis, resulting in greatly reduced overall model uncertainty relative to previous studies. The presented data set and probabilistic analysis also help resolve the ancillary issues of adjustment for soil fines content and magnitude scaling factors.

Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engin

Geological Survey research 1978

This U.S. Geological Survey activities report includes a summary of 1978 fiscal year scientific and economic results accompanied by a list of geologic and hydrologic investigations in progress and a report on the status of topographic mapping. The summary of results includes: (1) Mineral and water resources, (2) Engineering geology and hydrology, (3) Regional geology, (4) Principles and processes, (5) Laboratory and field methods, (6) Topographic surveys and mapping, (7) Management of resources on public lands, (8) Land information and analysis, and (9) Investigations in other countries. Also included are lists of cooperating agencies and Geological Survey offices. (Woodard-USGS)

Professional Paper

Evaluation of sampling methods used to estimate irrigation pumpage in Chase, Dundy, and Perkins counties, Nebraska

Combining estimates of applied irrigation water, determined for selected sample sites, with information on irrigated acreage provides one alternative for developing areal estimates of groundwater pumpage for irrigation. The reliability of this approach was evaluated by comparing estimated pumpage with metered pumpage for two years for a three-county area in southwestern Nebraska. Meters on all irrigation wells in the three counties provided a complete data set for evaluation of equipment and comparison with pumpage estimates. Regression analyses were conducted on discharge, time-of-operation, and pumpage data collected at 52 irrigation sites in 1983 and at 57 irrigation sites in 1984 using data from inline flowmeters as the independent variable. The standard error of the estimate for regression analysis of discharge measurements made using a portable flowmeter was 6.8% of the mean discharge metered by inline flowmeters. The standard error of the estimate for regression analysis of time of operation determined from electric meters was 8.1% of the mean time of operation determined from in-line and 15.1% for engine-hour meters. Sampled pumpage, calculated by multiplying the average discharge obtained from the portable flowmeter by the time of operation obtained from energy or hour meters, was compared with metered pumpage from in-line flowmeters at sample sites. The standard error of the estimate for the regression analysis of sampled pumpage was 10.3% of the mean of the metered pumpage for 1983 and 1984 combined. The difference in the mean of the sampled pumpage and the mean of the metered pumpage was only 1.8% for 1983 and 2.3% for 1984. Estimated pumpage, for each county and for the study area, was calculated by multiplying application (sampled pumpage divided by irrigated acreages at sample sites) by irrigated acreage compiled from Landsat (Land satellite) imagery. Estimated pumpage was compared with total metered pumpage for each county and the study area. Estimated pumpage by county varied from 9% less, to 20% more, than metered pumpage in 1983 and from 0 to 15% more than metered pumpage in 1984. Estimated pumpage for the study area was 11 % more than metered pumpage in 1983 and 5% more than metered pumpage in 1984. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Suggested notation conventions for rotational seismology

We note substantial inconsistency among authors discussing rotational motions observed with inertial seismic sensors (and much more so in the broader topic of rotational phenomena). Working from physics and other precedents, we propose standard terminology and a preferred reference frame for inertial sensors (Fig. 1) that may be consistently used in discussions of both finite and infinitesimal observed rotational and translational motions in seismology and earthquake engineering. The scope of this article is limited to observations because there are significant differences in the analysis of finite and infinitesimal rotations, though such discussions should remain compatible with those presented here where possible. We recommend the general use of the notation conventions presented in this tutorial, and we recommend that any deviations or alternatives be explicitly defined.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Statistical methods in water resources

Preface This book began as class notes for a course we teach on applied statistical methods to hydrologists of the Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). It reflects our attempts to teach statistical methods which are appropriate for analysis of water resources data. As interest in this course has grown outside of the USGS, incentive grew to develop the material into a textbook. The topics covered are those we feel are of greatest usefulness to the practicing water resources scientist. Yet all topics can be directly applied to many other types of environmental data. This book is not a stand-alone text on statistics, or a text on statistical hydrology. For example, in addition to this material we use a textbook on introductory statistics in the USGS training course. As a consequence, discussions of topics such as probability theory required in a general statistics textbook will not be found here. Derivations of most equations are not presented. Important tables included in all general statistics texts, such as quantiles of the normal distribution, are not found here. Neither are details of how statistical distributions should be fitted to flood data -- these are adequately covered in numerous books on statistical hydrology. We have instead chosen to emphasize topics not always found in introductory statistics textbooks, and often not adequately covered in statistical textbooks for scientists and engineers. Tables included here, for example, are those found more often in books on nonparametric statistics than in books likely to have been used in college courses for engineers. This book points the environmental and water resources scientist to robust and nonparametric statistics, and to exploratory data analysis. We believe that the characteristics of environmental (and perhaps most other 'real') data drive analysis methods towards use of robust and nonparametric methods. Exercises are included at the end of chapters. In our course, students compute each type of analysis (t-test, regression, etc.) the first time by hand. We choose the smaller, simpler examples for hand computation. In this way the mechanics of the process are fully understood, and computer software is seen as less mysterious. We wish to acknowledge and thank several other scientists at the U. S. Geological Survey for contributing ideas to this book. In particular, we thank those who have served as the other instructors at the USGS training course. Ed Gilroy has critiqued and improved much of the material found in this book. Tim Cohn has contributed in several areas, particularly to the sections on bias correction in regression, and methods for data below the reporting limit. Richard Alexander has added to the trend analysis chapter, and Charles Crawford has contributed ideas for regression and ANOVA. Their work has undoubtedly made its way into this book without adequate recognition. Professor Ken Potter (University of Wisconsin) and Dr. Gary Tasker (USGS) reviewed the manuscript, spending long hours with no reward except the knowledge that they have improved the work of others. For that we are very grateful. We also thank Madeline Sabin, who carefully typed original drafts of the class notes on which the book is based. As always, the responsibility for all errors and slanted thinking are ours alone.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations

Effective groundwater model calibration: With analysis of data, sensitivities, predictions, and uncertainty

Methods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical models Turn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and transparent mathematical models. The models can represent groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered systems. Use this book and its extensive exercises to learn methods to fully exploit the data on hand, maximize the model's potential, and troubleshoot any problems that arise. Use the methods to perform: Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the information content of data Data assessment to identify (a) existing measurements that dominate model development and predictions and (b) potential measurements likely to improve the reliability of predictions Calibration to develop models that are consistent with the data in an optimal manner Uncertainty evaluation to quantify and communicate errors in simulated results that are often used to make important societal decisions Most of the methods are based on linear and nonlinear regression theory. Fourteen guidelines show the reader how to use the methods advantageously in practical situations. Exercises focus on a groundwater flow system and management problem, enabling readers to apply all the methods presented in the text. The exercises can be completed using the material provided in the book, or as hands-on computer exercises using instructions and files available on the text's accompanying Web site. Throughout the book, the authors stress the need for valid statistical concepts and easily understood presentation methods required to achieve well-tested, transparent models. Most of the examples and all of the exercises focus on simulating groundwater systems; other examples come from surface-water hydrology and geophysics. The methods and guidelines in the text are broadly applicable and can be used by students, researchers, and engineers to simulate many kinds systems.

Book

Conservation-form equations of unsteady open-channel flow

The unsteady open-channel flow equations are typically expressed in a variety of forms due to the imposition of differing assumptions, use of varied dependent variables, and inclusion of different source/sink terms. Questions often arise as to whether a particular equation set is expressed in a form consistent with the conservation-law definition. The concept of conservation form is developed to clarify the meaning mathematically. Six sets of unsteady-flow equations typically used in engineering practice are presented and their conservation properties are identified and discussed. Results of the theoretical development and analysis of the equations are substantiated in a set of numerical experiments conducted using alternate equation forms. Findings of these analytical and numerical efforts demonstrate that the choice of dependent variable is the fundamental factor determining the nature of the conservation properties of any particular equation form.

Journal of Hydraulic Research

The characteristics and interpretability of land surface change and implications for project design

The need for comprehensive, accurate information on land-cover change has never been greater. While remotely sensed imagery affords the opportunity to provide information on land-cover change over large geographic expanses at a relatively low cost, the characteristics of land-surface change bring into question the suitability of many commonly used methodologies. Algorithm-based methodologies to detect change generally cannot provide the same level of accuracy as the analyses done by human interpreters. Results from the Land Cover Trends project, a cooperative venture that includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Environmental Protection Agency, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration, have shown that land-cover conversion is a relatively rare event, occurs locally in small patches, varies geographically and temporally, and is spectrally ambiguous. Based on these characteristics of change and the type of information required, manual interpretation was selected as the primary means of detecting change in the Land Cover Trends project. Mixtures of algorithm-based detection and manual interpretation may often prove to be the most feasible and appropriate design for change-detection applications. Serious examination of the expected characteristics and measurability of change must be considered during the design and implementation phase of any change analysis project.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Automated Cropland Classification Algorithm (ACCA) for California using multi-sensor remote sensing

Increasing pressure to feed the growing population with scarce water resources requires accurate and routine cropland mapping. This paper develops and implements a rule-based automated cropland classification algorithm (ACCA) using multi-sensor remote sensing data. Pixel-by-pixel accuracy assessments showed that ACCA produced an overall accuracy of 96 percent (K hat = 0.8) when tested using independent data layers. Furthermore, ACCA-generated county cropland areas showed high agreement (R-square values 0.94) when compared with three independent data sources: (a) US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layer derived cropland areas, (b) county specific crop acreage data from the Farm Service Agency, and (c) the Census of Agriculture data for the 58 counties in California. Our results demonstrate the ability of ACCA to generate cropland extent and areas over space and time, in an automated fashion with high degree of accuracies year after year, greatly contributing to food and water security analysis and decision making.

California

Evaluation of the Ott Hydromet Qliner for measuring discharge in laboratory and field conditions

The U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the University of Iowa IIHR – Hydroscience and Engineering, evaluated the use of the Ott Hydromet Qliner using laboratory flume tests along with field validation tests. Analysis of the flume testing indicates the velocities measured by the Qliner at a 40-second exposure time results in higher dispersion of velocities from the mean velocity of data collected with a 5-minute exposure time. The percent data spread from the mean of a 100-minute mean of Qliner velocities for a 40-second exposure time averaged 16.6 percent for the entire vertical, and a 5-minute mean produced a 6.2 percent data spread from the 100-minute mean. This 16.6 percent variation in measured velocity would result in a 3.32 percent variation in computed discharge assuming 25 verticals while averaging 4 bins in each vertical. The flume testing also provided results that indicate the blanking distance of 0.20 meters is acceptable when using beams 1 and 2, however beam 3 is negatively biased near the transducer and the 0.20-meter blanking distance is not sufficient. Field testing included comparing the measured discharge by the Qliner to the discharge measured by a Price AA mechanical current meter and a Teledyne RDI Rio Grande 1200 kilohertz acoustic Doppler current profiler. The field tests indicated a difference between the discharges measured with the Qliner and the field reference discharge between -14.0 and 8.0 percent; however the average percent difference for all 22 field comparisons was 0.22, which was not statistically significant.

Iowa

Exploration review

This summary of international mineral exploration activities for 2006 draws upon available information from literature, industry and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) specialists. The summary provides data on exploration budgets by region and mineral commodity, identifies significant mineral discoveries and areas of mineral exploration, discusses government programs affecting the mineral exploration industry and presents analysis of the mineral industry based upon these data.

Mining Engineering

Exploration review

This summary of international mineral exploration activities for the year 2005 draws upon available information from literature, industry and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) specialists. It provides data on exploration budgets by global region and mineral commodity and identifies significant mineral discoveries and exploration target areas. It also discusses government programs affecting the mineral exploration industry and presents analysis of the mineral industry based on these data.

Mining Engineering

Historical methane hydrate project review

In 1995, U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the volume of natural gas stored in the hydrate accumulations of the United States. That study, along with numerous other studies, has shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources. However, gas hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of gas hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various gas hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural gas hydrates, and (5) analyzing the effects of methane hydrate on drilling safety. Methane hydrates are naturally occurring crystalline substances composed of water and gas, in which a solid water-­‐lattice holds gas molecules in a cage-­‐like structure. The gas and water becomes a solid under specific temperature and pressure conditions within the Earth, called the hydrate stability zone. Other factors that control the presence of methane hydrate in nature include the source of the gas included within the hydrates, the physical and chemical controls on the migration of gas with a sedimentary basin containing methane hydrates, the availability of the water also included in the hydrate structure, and the presence of a suitable host sediment or “reservoir”. The geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates have become collectively known as the “methane hydrate petroleum system”, which has become the focus of numerous hydrate research programs. Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the U.S. Congress enacted Public Law 106-­‐193, the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. This Act called for the Secretary of Energy to begin a methane hydrate research and development program in consultation with other U.S. federal agencies. At the same time a new methane hydrate research program had been launched in Japan by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. Since this early start we have seen other countries including India, China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea establish large gas hydrate research and development programs. These national led efforts have also included the investment in a long list of important scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies that have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrate in nature. The most notable expeditions and projects have including the following: -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 (1995) -­‐Japan Nankai Trough Project (1999-­‐2000) -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 (2004) -­‐Japan Tokai-­‐oki to Kumano-­‐nada Project (2004) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg I (2005) -­‐Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311 (2005) -­‐Malaysia Gumusut-­‐Kakap Project (2006) -­‐India NGHP Expedition 01 (2006) -­‐China GMGS Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg II (2009) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 02 (2010) -­‐MH-­‐21 Nankai Trough Pre-­‐Production Expedition (2012-­‐2013) -­‐Mallik Gas Hydrate Testing Projects (1998/2002/2007-­‐2008) -­‐Alaska Mount Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well (2007) -­‐Alaska Iġnik Sikumi Methane Hydrate Production Test Well (2011-­‐2012) Research coring and seismic programs carried out by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), starting with the ODP Leg 164 drilling of the Blake Ridge in the Atlantic Ocean in 1995, have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation, occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in marine environments. For the most part methane hydrate research expeditions carried out by the ODP and IODP provided the foundation for our scientific understanding of gas hydrates. The methane hydrate research efforts under ODP-­‐IODP have mostly dealt with the assessment of the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate, with a specific goal to study the role methane hydrates may play in the global carbon cycle. Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test programs. Two of the most important production field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with the presence of hydrates. The scientific drilling and associated coring, logging, and borehole monitoring technologies developed in the long list of methane hydrate related field studies are one of the most important developments and contributions associated with methane hydrate research and development activities. Methane hydrate drilling has been conducted from advanced scientific drilling platforms like the JOIDES Resolution and the D/V Chikyu, which feature highly advanced integrated core laboratories and borehole logging capabilities. Hydrate research drilling has also included the use of a wide array of industry, geotechnical and multi-­‐service ships. All of which have been effectively used to collect invaluable geologic and engineering data on the occurrence of methane hydrates throughout the world. Technologies designed specifically for the collection and analysis of undisturbed methane hydrate samples have included the development of a host of pressure core systems and associated specialty laboratory apparatus. The study and use of both wireline conveyed and logging-­‐while-­‐drilling technologies have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the in-­‐situ nature of hydrate-­‐bearing sediments. Recent developments in borehole instrumentation specifically designed to monitor changes associated with hydrates in nature through time or to evaluate the response of hydrate accumulations to production have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the complex nature and evolution of methane hydrate systems. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur and behave in nature is still growing and evolving – we do not yet know if methane hydrates can be economically produced, nor do we know fully the role of hydrates as an agent of climate change or as a geologic hazard. But it is known for certain that scientific drilling has contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Report

Preliminary viability assessment of Lake Mendocino forecast informed reservoir operations

This report describes the preliminary viability assessment (PVA) of forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) for Lake Mendocino, which is located on the East Fork Russian River three miles east of Ukiah, California. The results described in this report represent the collective activities of the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC) (SC members are named on the inside cover of the report). The SC consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve reliability of meeting water management objectives of Lake Mendocino while not impairing flood protection. While the PVA provides an initial evaluation of the viability of FIRO as a concept, additional steps remain to complete the full viability assessment (FVA). Also, the PVA does not identify how FIRO strategies would be implemented. That effort would be the focus of the FVA, which builds off the analyses developed in the PVA. This report summarizes current Lake Mendocino operation and a preliminary analysis of FIRO alternatives, including analysis methods, results, and recommendations. A set of accompanying reports describes the analysis in detail. These are referred to herein as the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) report, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) report, and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) report (SCWA 2017, USACE 2017, and CW3E 2017, respectively).

California

Bed-Sediment Sampling and Analysis for Physical and Chemical Properties of the Lower Mississippi River near Memphis, Tennessee

In February 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Memphis District, investigated the presence of inorganic elements and organic compounds in bed sediments of the lower Mississippi River. Selected sites were located in the navigation channel near river miles 737, 773, and 790 near Memphis, Tennessee. Bed-sediment samples were collected using a Shipek grab sampler mounted to a boom crane with a motorized winch. Samples then were processed and shipped to the U.S. Geological Survey Sediment Laboratory in Rolla, Missouri, the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, and to TestAmerica Laboratory, Inc. in West Sacramento, California. Samples were analyzed for grain size, inorganic elements (including mercury), and organic compounds. Chemical results were tabulated and listed with sediment-quality guidelines and presented with the physical property results. All of the bed material samples collected during this investigation yielded concentrations that were less than the Consensus-Based Probable Effect Concentration guidelines. The physical properties were tabulated and listed using a standard U.S. Geological Survey scale of sizes by class for sediment analysis. All of the samples collected during this investigation indicated a percent composition mostly comprised of sand, ranging from less than 0.125 millimeters to less than 2 millimeters.

Open-File Report