SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Coastal Futures”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 379 records · Page 21Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Law of the sea, the continental shelf, and marine research

The question of the amount of seabed to which a coastal nation is entitled is addressed in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This treaty, ratified by 153 nations and in force since 1994, specifies national obligations, rights, and jurisdiction in the oceans, and it allows nations a continental shelf out to at least 200 nautical miles or to a maritime boundary. Article 76 (A76) of the convention enables coastal nations to establish their continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles and therefore to control, among other things, access for scientific research and the use of seabed resources that would otherwise be considered to lie beyond national jurisdiction. To date, seven submissions for extended continental shelves (ECS) have been filed under UNCLOS (Table 1). These submissions have begun to define the ambiguities in A76. How these ambiguities are resolved into final ECS boundaries will probably set important precedents guiding the future delimitation of the ECS by the United States, which has not ratified the convention, and other coastal nations. This report uses examples from the first three submissions—by the Russian Federation, Brazil, and Australia—to identify outstanding issues encountered in applying A76 to ECS delimitation.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗

USGS2004

Geodetic and seismic constraints on some seismogenic zone processes in Costa Rica

New seismic and geodetic data from Costa Rica provide insight into seismogenic zone processes in Central America, where the Cocos and Caribbean plates converge. Seismic data are from combined land and ocean bottom deployments in the Nicoya peninsula in northern Costa Rica and near the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. In Nicoya, inversion of GPS data suggests two locked patches centered at 14 ± 2 and 39 ± 6 km depth. Interplate microseismicity is concentrated in the more freely slipping intermediate zone, suggesting that small interseismic earthquakes may not accurately outline the updip limit of the seismogenic zone, the rupture zone for future large earthquakes, at least over the short (∼1 year) observation period. We also estimate northwest motion of a coastal “sliver block” at 8 ± 3 mm/yr, probably related to oblique convergence. In the Osa region to the south, convergence is orthogonal to the trench. Cocos-Caribbean relative motion is partitioned here, with ∼8 cm/yr on the Cocos-Panama block boundary (including a component of permanent shortening across the Fila Costeña fold and thrust belt) and ∼1 cm/yr on the Panama block–Caribbean boundary. The GPS data suggest that the Cocos plate–Panama block boundary is completely locked from ∼10–50 km depth. This large locked zone, as well as associated forearc and back-arc deformation, may be related to subduction of the shallow Cocos Ridge and/or younger lithosphere compared to Nicoya, with consequent higher coupling and compressive stress in the direction of plate convergence.

Nicoya Peninsula, Osa Peninsula↗

USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Strong shaking from past Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes encoded in coastal landforms

Strong earthquakes along subduction zones are often devastating events, but sparse records along some tectonic margins limit our understanding of seismic hazards. Constraining shaking intensities is critical, especially in subduction zones with infrequent but large-magnitude earthquakes like the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), where the lack of recorded ground motions has led to uncertainty in the severity and potential impacts of future earthquakes. Here we fill this observational gap with a novel inventory of quantitative estimates of past shaking intensities from geotechnical modeling of coastal landforms. One hundred fifty-four deep-seated landslides and 65 fragile geologic features constrain minimum and maximum peak ground accelerations, respectively. These estimates are broadly consistent with model predictions of M9 ruptures, suggesting strong shaking of 0.4–0.8 g during past CSZ earthquakes. Local discrepancies between our geologic shaking constraints and earthquake simulations may inform past rupture behavior, leading to better predictions of shaking intensity for future earthquakes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2012

A catalog of Louisiana's nesting seabird colonies

Summarizing his colonial nesting waterbird survey experiences along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in a paper presented to the Colonial Waterbird Group of the Waterbird Society (Portnoy 1978), bird biologist John W. Portnoy stated, “This huge concentration of nesting waterbirds, restricted almost entirely to the wetlands and estuaries of southern Louisiana, is unmatched in all of North America; for example, a 1975 inventory of wading birds along the Atlantic Coast from Maine to Florida [Custer and Osborn, in press], tallied 250,000 breeding [waterbirds] of 14 species, in contrast with the 650,000 birds of 15 species just from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay.” The “650,000 birds” to which Portnoy referred, were tallied by him in a 1976 survey of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama (see below, under “Major Surveys” section). According to the National Atlas of Coastal Waterbird Colonies in the Contiguous United States: 1976-82 (Spendelow and Patton 1988), the percentages of the total U.S. populations of Laughing Gull (11%), Forster's Tern (52%), Royal Tern (16%), Sandwich Tern (77%), and Black Skimmer (44%) which annually nest in Louisiana are significant – perhaps crucially so in the cases of Forster's Tern, Sandwich Tern, and Black Skimmer. Nearly three decades after Spendelow and Patton's determinations above, coastal Louisiana still stands out as the major center of colonial wading bird and seabird nesting in all of the United States. Within those three intervening decades, however, the collective habitats which comprise Louisiana's now fragile coastal zone have taken major hits from commercial/residential, oil & gas, and other industrial development, primarily in the form of coastal erosion exacerbated by these and other factors (Portnoy 1978, Spendelow and Patton 1988, Martin and Lester 1990, Green, et al. 2006). Moreover, during this same period, both geologic subsidence rates (Tornqvist et al. 2008) and mean sea-level (Tornqvist et al. 2002) have increased, along with significant tropical storm activity; all of which have combined to impact available marsh, barrier island, beach, and dredge spoil nesting habitat for waterbirds, especially seabirds, throughout the coastal zone of Louisiana. The primary objective of this publication is to detail those coastal Louisiana colonial seabird nesting sites for which we have reasonably accurate data, in a tabular, site-by-site format. All major survey (1976-2008) data of site-by-site seabird species counts, as well as several smaller data sets, referred to in the site history tables as “miscellaneous observations” obtained during the May-June seabird breeding period, are included. It is our hope that these data will provide a dependable foundation from which future colonial seabird nesting surveys might be planned and carried out, as well as showcase the importance of coastal Louisiana's seabird rookeries, and contribute to their conservation.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Alexandrium fundyense cysts in the Gulf of Maine: long-term time series of abundance and distribution, and linkages to past and future blooms

Here we document Alexandrium fundyense cyst abundance and distribution patterns over nine years (1997 and 2004–2011) in the coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and identify linkages between those patterns and several metrics of the severity or magnitude of blooms occurring before and after each autumn cyst survey. We also explore the relative utility of two measures of cyst abundance and demonstrate that GOM cyst counts can be normalized to sediment volume, revealing meaningful patterns equivalent to those determined with dry weight normalization. Cyst concentrations were highly variable spatially. Two distinct seedbeds (defined here as accumulation zones with>300 cysts cm −3 ) are evident, one in the Bay of Fundy (BOF) and one in mid-coast Maine. Overall, seedbed locations remained relatively constant through time, but their area varied 3–4 fold, and total cyst abundance more than 10 fold among years. A major expansion of the mid-coast Maine seedbed occurred in 2009 following an unusually intense A. fundyense bloom with visible red-water conditions, but that feature disappeared by late 2010. The regional system thus has only two seedbeds with the bathymetry, sediment characteristics, currents, biology, and environmental conditions necessary to persist for decades or longer. Strong positive correlations were confirmed between the abundance of cysts in both the 0–1 and the 0–3 cm layers of sediments in autumn and geographic measures of the extent of the bloom that occurred the next year (i.e., cysts→blooms), such as the length of coastline closed due to shellfish toxicity or the southernmost latitude of shellfish closures. In general, these metrics of bloom geographic extent did not correlate with the number of cysts in sediments following the blooms (blooms→cysts). There are, however, significant positive correlations between 0–3 cm cyst abundances and metrics of the preceding bloom that are indicative of bloom intensity or vegetative cell abundance (e.g., cumulative shellfish toxicity, duration of detectable toxicity in shellfish, and bloom termination date). These data suggest that it may be possible to use cyst abundance to empirically forecast the geographic extent of the forthcoming bloom and, conversely, to use other metrics from bloom and toxicity events to forecast the size of the subsequent cyst population as the inoculum for the next year's bloom. This is an important step towards understanding the excystment/encystment cycle in A. fundyense bloom dynamics while also augmenting our predictive capability for this HAB-forming species in the GOM.

Maine↗

USGS1977

Digital computer simulation model of the Englishtown aquifer in the northern coastal plain of New Jersey

Continued decline of water levels in the Englishtown aquifer, in New Jersey, has caused considerable concern regarding the ability of the aquifer to meet future yield demands. A detailed study of the capability of the aquifer to yield water entailed the use of a digital computer simulation model to evaluate aquifer and confining layer coefficients and to test alternative concepts of the hydrodynamics of the flow system. The modeled area includes about 750 square miles of the northern Coastal Plain of New Jersey and encompasses all the major centers of pumping from the Englishtown aquifer. The simulation model was calibrated by matching computed declines with historical water-level declines over the 12-year period, 1959-70. The volume of transient and steady leakage into the Englishtown aquifer from and through the adjacent confining layers equaled more than 90 percent of the total volume of water withdrawn from the aquifer between 1959 and 1970. The analytical estimate of transient leakage indicates that about 60 percent of the water withdrawn from the Englishtown between 1959 and 1970 was replaced by water released from storage in the adjacent confining beds. An additional 34 percent of the withdrawal over this time period was supported by steady leakage through the overlying confining bed from the Mount Laurel aquifer. Of the more than 30 billion gallons withdrawn from the aquifer over the 12-year period, about 2 billion gallons were obtained from storage in the aquifer. The values of aquifer and confining-layer coefficients used in the model are nearly the same as the average values obtained from field and laboratory data. (Woodard-USGS)

Coastal New Jersey↗

USGS2014

Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km 2 ) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (< 283 m 3 s -1 ) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (< 3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (> 1,500 m 3 s -1 ) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2010

Simulation of groundwater flow to assess future withdrawals associated with Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) at Fort George G. Meade, Maryland

Increased groundwater withdrawals from confined aquifers in the Maryland Coastal Plain to supply anticipated growth at Fort George G. Meade (Fort Meade) and surrounding areas resulting from the Department of Defense Base Realignment and Closure Program may have adverse effects in the outcrop or near-outcrop areas. Specifically, increased pumping from the Potomac Group aquifers (principally the Patuxent aquifer) could potentially reduce base flow in small streams below rates necessary for healthy biological functioning. Additionally, water levels may be lowered near, or possibly below, the top of the aquifer within the confined-unconfined transition zone near the outcrop area. A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was created to incorporate and analyze data on water withdrawals, streamflow, and hydraulic head in the region. The model is based on an earlier model developed to assess the effects of future withdrawals from well fields in Anne Arundel County, Maryland and surrounding areas, and includes some of the same features, including model extent, boundary conditions, and vertical discretization (layering). The resolution (horizontal grid discretization) of the earlier model limited its ability to simulate the effects of withdrawals on the outcrop and near-outcrop areas. The model developed for this study included a block-shaped higher-resolution local grid, referred to as the child model, centered on Fort Meade, which was coupled to the coarser-grid parent model using the shared node Local Grid Refinement capability of MODFLOW-LGR. A more detailed stream network was incorporated into the child model. In addition, for part of the transient simulation period, stress periods were reduced in length from 1 year to 3 months, to allow for simulation of the effects of seasonally varying withdrawals and recharge on the groundwater-flow system and simulated streamflow. This required revision of the database on withdrawals and estimation of seasonal variations in recharge represented in the earlier model. The calibrated model provides a tool for future forecasts of changes in the system under different management scenarios, and for simulating potential effects of withdrawals at Fort Meade and the surrounding area on water levels in the near-outcrop area and base flow in the outcrop area. Model error was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water levels from 62 wells (55 in the parent model and 7 in the child model). The root-mean-square error values for the parent and child model were 8.72 and 11.91 feet, respectively. Root-mean-square error values for the 55 parent model observation wells range from 0.95 to 30.31 feet; the range for the 7 child model observation wells is 5.00 to 24.17 feet. Many of the wells with higher root-mean-square error values occur at the perimeter of the child model and near large pumping centers, as well as updip in the confined aquifers. Root-mean-square error values decrease downdip and away from the large pumping centers. Both the parent and child models are sensitive to increasing withdrawal rates. The parent model is more sensitive than the child model to decreasing transmissivity of layers 3, 4, 5, and 6. The parent model is relatively insensitive to riverbed vertical conductance, however, the child model does exhibit some sensitivity to decreasing riverbed conductance. The overall water budget for the model included sources and sinks of water including recharge, surface-water bodies and rivers and streams, general-head boundaries, and withdrawals from permitted wells. Withdrawal from wells in 2005 was estimated to be equivalent to 8.5 percent of the total recharge rate.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicated by uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic process for evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilience and conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion are increasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborative decision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bay estuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgment developed alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while considering uncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regarding intensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatible models and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysis lead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties about climate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategy is robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholders about the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy considering sea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties about management effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had the lowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptable template, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.

California↗

USGS2024

Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States

Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. Our results show that there is much spatial variation in relative sea-level rise rates, which impacts the potential timing and extent of wetlands crossing thresholds. High rates of relative sea-level rise along wetland-rich parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts highlight areas where wetlands are already drowning or could begin to drown within decades, including large wetland landscapes within the Mississippi River delta, Greater Everglades, Chesapeake Bay, Texas, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Collectively, our results underscore the need to prepare for transformative coastal change.

Communications Earth & Environment↗

USGS2022

Variability in marsh migration potential determined by topographic rather than anthropogenic constraints in the Chesapeake Bay region

Sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion are driving inland shifts in coastal ecosystems. Here, we make high-resolution (1 m) predictions of land conversion under future SLR scenarios in 81 watersheds surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, a hotspot for accelerated SLR and saltwater intrusion. We find that 1050–3748 km 2 of marsh could be created by 2100, largely at the expense of forested wetlands. Predicted marsh migration exceeds total current tidal marsh area and is ~ 4× greater than historical observations. Anthropogenic land use in marsh migration areas is concentrated within a few watersheds and minimally impacts calculated metrics of marsh resilience. Despite regional marsh area maintenance, local ecosystem service replacement within vulnerable watersheds remains uncertain. However, our work suggests that topography rather than land use drives spatial variability in wetland vulnerability regionally, and that rural land conversion is needed to compensate for extensive areal losses on heavily developed coasts globally.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2020

How plants influence resilience of salt marsh and mangrove wetlands to sea-level rise

This review evaluates the importance of plants and associated biological processes in determining the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Coastal wetlands occur across a broad sedimentary continuum from minerogenic to biogenic, providing an opportunity to examine the relative importance of biological processes in wetland resilience to sea-level rise. We explore how plants influence sediment accretion, elevation capital (vertical position in the tidal frame), and compaction or erosion of deposited material. We focus on salt marsh and mangrove wetlands, which occupy a similar physiographic niche and display similar physical and biological controls on resilience to sea-level rise. In both habitats, plants stabilize emergent mudflats and help sustain the wetland position in the tidal frame relative to ocean height through both surface and subsurface process controls on soil elevation. Plants influence soil elevations by modifying (1) mineral sediment deposition and retention, (2) organic matter contributions to soil volume, and (3) resistance to compaction and erosion. Recognition of the importance of plants in coastal wetland resilience to sea-level rise is key to accurate predictions about the future fate of salt marshes and mangrove forests and for development of effective management and restoration plans.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2018

Submerged aquatic vegetation mapping in coastal Louisiana through development of a spatial likelihood occurrence (SLOO) model

Determining the spatial distribution of coastal foundation species is essential to accurately determine restoration goals, predict the ecological effects of climate change, and develop habitat management strategies. Mapping the distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) species assemblages, which provide important habitat resource and ecological services in Louisiana, has been difficult due to the dynamic nature of SAV occurrence and the limited water clarity across much of the coast. Species distribution models (SDMs) link ecological conditions species occurrence across landscapes, and can predict the distribution of species across un-sampled or hard to sample areas and support the development of habitat maps. To predict SAV distribution in coastal Louisiana, a SDM was developed and projected across the landscape to create a spatial likelihood of occurrence (SLOO) model describing the probability of SAV presence in aquatic habitats. SAV presence and absence data were examined from over 500 field observations in relation to physical and hydrologic variables, including exposure, turbidity, water level, and salinity. A binary logistic regression model (p < 0.0001) identified three significant predictors of SAV presence: mean winter salinity, exposure, and turbidity. As each of these variables increased, the probability of SAV presence in the summer growing season decreased. The spatial application of this SDM helps to predict the likelihood of occurrence across the coastal landscape, creating a valuable tool to describe un-sampled SAV habitat and estimate future changes in habitat availability.

Louisiana↗

USGS2019

Effects of salinity and light on growth and interspecific interactions between Myriophyllum spicatum L. and Ruppia maritima L.

Submerged macrophyte habitats provide significant benefits to estuarine systems. In southeast Louisiana, Myriophyllum spicatum L. (milfoil) and Ruppia maritima L. (widgeongrass) are dominant species existing across fresh to brackish areas. Though frequently co-occurring across the range of salinity and light conditions, their individual responses to changing environmental conditions from restoration, weather and climate may determine overall species distribution, and biomass abundance. We compared milfoil and widgeongrass growth (i.e., biomass increase) across a range of salinity and light, in monoculture (salinity: 0, 5, 10, 15, 20; light: high ˜ 50% ambient; low ˜ 20% ambient), and in mixture (salinity: 0, 10, 20; light: high, low). In monoculture, milfoil growth was reduced at high salinity (20) versus low salinity (0), while biomass allocation differed significantly with greater allocation to shoots under high light, compared to low light. Widgeongrass was minimally affected by salinity, with reduced stem densities at high salinity compared to low salinity. In mixture, both species under-yielded compared to monoculture with milfoil reduced with high salinity and light, and low salinity and light; widgeongrass under-yielded with low salinity and high light, and mid salinity (10) and low light. These differences in species’ responses suggest that salinity and light contribute to the distribution of milfoil and widgeongrass, with higher salinities and light favoring widgeongrass growth, and lower light possibly decreasing both species’ growth, and ultimately, distribution. With continued changes occurring and predicted from both coastal restoration and climate change, understanding drivers of habitat forming species remains critical to inform future landscapes.

Aquatic Botany↗

USGS2023

Biophysical drivers of coastal treeline elevation

Sea level rise is leading to the rapid migration of marshes into coastal forests and other terrestrial ecosystems. Although complex biophysical interactions likely govern these ecosystem transitions, projections of sea level driven land conversion commonly rely on a simplified “threshold elevation” that represents the elevation of the marsh-upland boundary based on tidal datums alone. To determine the influence of biophysical drivers on threshold elevations, and their implication for land conversion, we examined almost 100,000 high-resolution marsh-forest boundary elevation points, determined independently from tidal datums, alongside hydrologic, ecologic, and geomorphic data in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S. located along the mid-Atlantic coast. We find five-fold variations in threshold elevation across the entire estuary, driven not only by tidal range, but also salinity and slope. However, more than half of the variability is unexplained by these variables, which we attribute largely to uncaptured local factors including groundwater discharge, microtopography, and anthropogenic impacts. In the Chesapeake Bay, observed threshold elevations deviate from predicted elevations used to determine sea level driven land conversion by as much as the amount of projected regional sea level rise by 2050. These results suggest that local drivers strongly mediate coastal ecosystem transitions, and that predictions based on elevation and tidal datums alone may misrepresent future land conversion.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2011

Effects of large-scale wildfire on ground foraging ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in southern California

We investigated the effect of broad-scale wildfire on ground foraging ants within southern California. In October and November of 2003, two wildfires burned large portions of the wildlands within San Diego County. Between January 2005 and September 2006, we surveyed 63 plots across four sites to measure the effect of the fires on the ant assemblages present in four vegetation types: 1) coastal sage scrub, 2) chaparral, 3) grassland, and 4) woodland riparian. Thirty-six of the 63 plots were sampled before the fires between March 2001 and June 2003. Mixed model regression analyses, accounting for the burn history of each plot and our pre- and postfire sampling efforts, revealed that fire had a negative effect on ant species diversity. Multivariate analyses showed that ant community structure varied significantly among the four vegetation types, and only the ant assemblage associated with coastal sage scrub exhibited a significant difference between burned and unburned samples. The most notable change detected at the individual species level involved Messor andrei (Mayr), which increased from <1% of prefire coastal sage scrub ant samples to 32.1% in burned plots postfire. We theorize that M. andrei responded to the increase of bare ground and postfire seed production, leading to an increase in the detection rate for this species. Collectively, our results suggest that wildfires can have short-term impacts on the diversity and community structure of ground foraging ants in coastal sage scrub. We discuss these findings in relation to management implications and directions for future research.

California↗