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USGS2011

Inversion of ground-motion data from a seismometer array for rotation using a modification of Jaeger's method

We develop a new way to invert 2D translational waveforms using Jaeger's (1969) formula to derive rotational ground motions about one axis and estimate the errors in them using techniques from statistical multivariate analysis. This procedure can be used to derive rotational ground motions and strains using arrayed translational data, thus providing an efficient way to calibrate the performance of rotational sensors. This approach does not require a priori information about the noise level of the translational data and elastic properties of the media. This new procedure also provides estimates of the standard deviations of the derived rotations and strains. In this study, we validated this code using synthetic translational waveforms from a seismic array. The results after the inversion of the synthetics for rotations were almost identical with the results derived using a well-tested inversion procedure by Spudich and Fletcher (2009). This new 2D procedure can be applied three times to obtain the full, three-component rotations. Additional modifications can be implemented to the code in the future to study different features of the rotational ground motions and strains induced by the passage of seismic waves.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Multiscale site-response mapping: A case study of Parkfield, California

The scale of previously proposed methods for mapping site-response ranges from global coverage down to individual urban regions. Typically, spatial coverage and accuracy are inversely related.We use the densely spaced strong-motion stations in Parkfield, California, to estimate the accuracy of different site-response mapping methods and demonstrate a method for integrating multiple site-response estimates from the site to the global scale. This method is simply a weighted mean of a suite of different estimates, where the weights are the inverse of the variance of the individual estimates. Thus, the dominant site-response model varies in space as a function of the accuracy of the different models. For mapping applications, site-response models should be judged in terms of both spatial coverage and the degree of correlation with observed amplifications. Performance varies with period, but in general the Parkfield data show that: (1) where a velocity profile is available, the square-rootof- impedance (SRI) method outperforms the measured VS30 (30 m divided by the S-wave travel time to 30 m depth) and (2) where velocity profiles are unavailable, the topographic slope method outperforms surficial geology for short periods, but geology outperforms slope at longer periods. We develop new equations to estimate site response from topographic slope, derived from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 İzmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double-difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of microearthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

Istanbul↗

USGS2012

Significant motions between GPS sites in the New Madrid region: implications for seismic hazard

Position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the New Madrid region were differenced to determine the relative motions between stations. Uncertainties in rates were estimated using a three‐component noise model consisting of white, flicker, and random walk noise, following the methodology of Langbein, 2004. Significant motions of 0.37±0.07 (one standard error) mm/yr were found between sites PTGV and STLE, for which the baseline crosses the inferred deep portion of the Reelfoot fault. Baselines between STLE and three other sites also show significant motion. Site MCTY (adjacent to STLE) also exhibits significant motion with respect to PTGV. These motions are consistent with a model of interseismic slip of about 4 mm/yr on the Reelfoot fault at depths between 12 and 20 km. If constant over time, this rate of slip produces sufficient slip for an M 7.3 earthquake on the shallow portion of the Reelfoot fault, using the geologically derived recurrence time of 500 years. This model assumes that the shallow portion of the fault has been previously loaded by the intraplate stress. A GPS site near Little Rock, Arkansas, shows significant southward motion of 0.3–0.4 mm/yr (±0.08 mm/yr) relative to three sites to the north, indicating strain consistent with focal mechanisms of earthquake swarms in northern Arkansas.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Source and site response study of the 2008 Mount Carmel, Illinois, earthquake

Two separate inversions are performed using the ground-motion data from the 2008 Mount Carmel, Illinois, earthquake. One uses aftershocks as empirical Green’s functions to determine a finite-fault slip distribution. The second uses mainshock ground-motion spectra to calculate source, path, and site response parameters. The slip inversion reveals a prominent asperity at the hypocenter with an area of approximately 6 km 2 , moment of 7.0 x 10 23 dyn cm ( M w 5.20), and stress drop of about 100 bars. Considering all major and minor slip, the total moment is 1.7 x 10 24 dyn cm ( M w =5.45). The rupture velocity is not resolvable due to the small source area. After fixing the geometric spreading, the source, path, and site parameter inversion yields a similar moment of 8.8 x 10 23 dyn cm ( M w 5.26) and a corner frequency of 0.89 Hz, which also give a stress drop of approximately 100 bars. Our combined geometric and anelastic attenuation function, Q ( f ) r -b =1137 f 0.12 r -0.94 , fits the regional spectral amplitudes, where the data is more plentiful, as well as previously derived attenuation relationships. Site response spectra show prominent resonant frequencies that correlate with the thickness of Mississippi River sediments and Mississippi embayment deposits. In addition, higher frequency resonance peaks are observed that most likely represent higher mode resonances and resonances from shallower structure.

Illinois↗

USGS2011

Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models

Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period ( T >2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010) and require, as inputs, only a general description of the fault location and geometry, event magnitude, and hypocenter, as would be done for a scenario event. For each rupture model, two Southern California Earthquake Center three-dimensional community seismic velocity models (CVM-4m and CVM-H62) are used, resulting in a total of 10 ground-motion simulations, which we compare with recorded ground motions. While the details of the motions vary across the simulations, the median levels match the observed peak ground velocities reasonably well, with the standard deviation of the residuals generally within 50% of the median. Simulations with the CVM-4m model yield somewhat lower variance than those with the CVM-H62 model. Both models tend to overpredict motions in the San Diego region and underpredict motions in the Mojave desert. Within the greater Los Angeles basin, the CVM-4m model generally matches the level of observed motions, whereas the CVM-H62 model tends to overpredict the motions, particularly in the southern portion of the basin. The variance in the peak velocity residuals is lowest for a rupture that has significant shallow slip (<5 km depth), whereas the variance in the residuals is greatest for ruptures with large asperities below 10 km depth. Overall, these results are encouraging and provide confidence in the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology, while also suggesting some regions in which the seismic velocity models may need improvement.

California↗

USGS2012

A terrain-based site characterization map of California with implications for the contiguous United States

We present an approach based on geomorphometry to predict material properties and characterize site conditions using the V S 30 parameter (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to a depth of 30 m). Our framework consists of an automated terrain classification scheme based on taxonomic criteria (slope gradient, local convexity, and surface texture) that systematically identifies 16 terrain types from 1‐km spatial resolution (30 arcsec) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation models (SRTMDEMs). Using 853 V S 30 values from California, we apply a simulation‐based statistical method to determine the mean V S 30 for each terrain type in California. We then compare the V S 30 values with models based on individual proxies, such as mapped surface geology and topographic slope, and show that our systematic terrain‐based approach consistently performs better than semiempirical estimates based on individual proxies. To further evaluate our model, we apply our California‐based estimates to terrains of the contiguous United States. Comparisons of our estimates with 325 V S 30 measurements outside of California, as well as estimates based on the topographic slope model, indicate our method to be statistically robust and more accurate. Our approach thus provides an objective and robust method for extending estimates of V S 30 for regions where in situ measurements are sparse or not readily available.

California↗

USGS2011

Shear-wave velocity characterization of the USGS Hawaiian strong-motion network on the Island of Hawaii and development of an NEHRP site-class map

To assess the level and nature of ground shaking in Hawaii for the purposes of earthquake hazard mitigation and seismic design, empirical ground-motion prediction models are desired. To develop such empirical relationships, knowledge of the subsurface site conditions beneath strong-motion stations is critical. Thus, as a first step to develop ground-motion prediction models for Hawaii, spectral-analysis-of-surface-waves (SASW) profiling was performed at the 22 free-field U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strong-motion sites on the Big Island to obtain shear-wave velocity ( V S ) data. Nineteen of these stations recorded the 2006 Kiholo Bay moment magnitude (M) 6.7 earthquake, and 17 stations recorded the triggered M 6.0 Mahukona earthquake. V S profiling was performed to reach depths of more than 100 ft. Most of the USGS stations are situated on sites underlain by basalt, based on surficial geologic maps. However, the sites have varying degrees of weathering and soil development. The remaining strong-motion stations are located on alluvium or volcanic ash. V S 30 (average V S in the top 30 m) values for the stations on basalt ranged from 906 to 1908 ft/s [National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classes C and D], because most sites were covered with soil of variable thickness. Based on these data, an NEHRP site-class map was developed for the Big Island. These new V S data will be a significant input into an update of the USGS statewide hazard maps and to the operation of ShakeMap on the island of Hawaii.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2012

Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Specifying initial stress for dynamic heterogeneous earthquake source models

Dynamic rupture calculations using heterogeneous stress drop that is random and self-similar with a power-law spatial spectrum have great promise of producing realistic ground-motion predictions. We present procedures to specify initial stress for random events with a target rupture length and target magnitude. The stress function is modified in the depth dimension to account for the brittle-ductile transition at the base of the seismogenic zone. Self-similar fluctuations in stress drop are tied in this work to the long-wavelength stress variation that determines rupture length. Heterogeneous stress is related to friction levels in order to relate the model to physical concepts. In a variant of the model, there are high-stress asperities with low background stress. This procedure has a number of advantages: (1) rupture stops naturally, not at artificial barriers; (2) the amplitude of short-wavelength fluctuations of stress drop is not arbitrary: the spectrum is fixed to the long-wavelength fluctuation that determines rupture length; and (3) large stress drop can be confined to asperities occupying a small fraction of the total rupture area, producing slip distributions with enhanced peaks.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2011

Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion

Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge, 1989 M w 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 M w 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Long-term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: Evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes

The Hayward fault (HF) in California exhibits large (Mw 6.5–7.1) earthquakes with short recurrence times (161±65 yr), probably kept short by a 26%–78% aseismic release rate (including postseismic). Its interseismic release rate varies locally over time, as we infer from many decades of surface creep data. Earliest estimates of creep rate, primarily from infrequent surveys of offset cultural features, revealed distinct spatial variation in rates along the fault, but no detectable temporal variation. Since the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake (LPE), monitoring on 32 alinement arrays and 5 creepmeters has greatly improved the spatial and temporal resolution of creep rate. We now identify significant temporal variations, mostly associated with local and regional earthquakes. The largest rate change was a 6‐yr cessation of creep along a 5‐km length near the south end of the HF, attributed to a regional stress drop from the LPE, ending in 1996 with a 2‐cm creep event. North of there near Union City starting in 1991, rates apparently increased by 25% above pre‐LPE levels on a 16‐km‐long reach of the fault. Near Oakland in 2007 an Mw 4.2 earthquake initiated a 1–2 cm creep event extending 10–15 km along the fault. Using new better‐constrained long‐term creep rates, we updated earlier estimates of depth to locking along the HF. The locking depths outline a single, &sim;50‐km‐long locked or retarded patch with the potential for an Mw&sim;6.8 event equaling the 1868 HF earthquake. We propose that this inferred patch regulates the size and frequency of large earthquakes on HF.

California↗

USGS2012

A new perspective on the geometry of the San Andreas Fault in southern California and its relationship to lithospheric structure

The widely held perception that the San Andreas fault (SAF) is vertical or steeply dipping in most places in southern California may not be correct. From studies of potential‐field data, active‐source imaging, and seismicity, the dip of the SAF is significantly nonvertical in many locations. The direction of dip appears to change in a systematic way through the Transverse Ranges: moderately southwest (55°–75°) in the western bend of the SAF in the Transverse Ranges (Big Bend); vertical to steep in the Mojave Desert; and moderately northeast (37°–65°) in a region extending from San Bernardino to the Salton Sea, spanning the eastern bend of the SAF in the Transverse Ranges. The shape of the modeled SAF is crudely that of a propeller. If confirmed by further studies, the geometry of the modeled SAF would have important implications for tectonics and strong ground motions from SAF earthquakes. The SAF can be traced or projected through the crust to the north side of a well documented high‐velocity body (HVB) in the upper mantle beneath the Transverse Ranges. The north side of this HVB may be an extension of the plate boundary into the mantle, and the HVB would appear to be part of the Pacific plate.

California↗

USGS2012

Characterization of intrabasin faulting and deformation for earthquake hazards in southern Utah Valley, Utah, from high-resolution seismic imaging

We conducted active and passive seismic imaging investigations along a 5.6-km-long, east–west transect ending at the mapped trace of the Wasatch fault in southern Utah Valley. Using two-dimensional (2D) P-wave seismic reflection data, we imaged basin deformation and faulting to a depth of 1.4 km and developed a detailed interval velocity model for prestack depth migration and 2D ground-motion simulations. Passive-source microtremor data acquired at two sites along the seismic reflection transect resolve S-wave velocities of approximately 200 m/s at the surface to about 900 m/s at 160 m depth and confirm a substantial thickening of low-velocity material westward into the valley. From the P-wave reflection profile, we interpret shallow (100–600 m) bedrock deformation extending from the surface trace of the Wasatch fault to roughly 1.5 km west into the valley. The bedrock deformation is caused by multiple interpreted fault splays displacing fault blocks downward to the west of the range front. Further west in the valley, the P-wave data reveal subhorizontal horizons from approximately 90 to 900 m depth that vary in thickness and whose dip increases with depth eastward toward the Wasatch fault. Another inferred fault about 4 km west of the mapped Wasatch fault displaces horizons within the valley to as shallow as 100 m depth. The overall deformational pattern imaged in our data is consistent with the Wasatch fault migrating eastward through time and with the abandonment of earlier synextensional faults, as part of the evolution of an inferred 20-km-wide half-graben structure within Utah Valley. Finite-difference 2D modeling suggests the imaged subsurface basin geometry can cause fourfold variation in peak ground velocity over distances of 300 m.

Utah↗

USGS2013

Assessing the location and magnitude of the 20 October 1870 Charlevoix, Quebec, earthquake

The Charlevoix, Quebec, earthquake of 20 October 1870 caused damage to several towns in Quebec and was felt throughout much of southeastern Canada and along the U.S. Atlantic seaboard from Maine to Maryland. Site‐specific damage and felt reports from Canadian and U.S. cities and towns were used in analyses of the location and magnitude of the earthquake. The macroseismic center of the earthquake was very close to Baie‐St‐Paul, where the greatest damage was reported, and the intensity magnitude M I was found to be 5.8, with a 95% probability range of 5.5–6.0. After corrections for epicentral‐distance differences are applied, the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data for the 1870 earthquake and for the moment magnitude M 6.2 Charlevoix earthquake of 1925 at common sites show that on average, the MMI readings are about 0.8 intensity units smaller for the 1870 earthquake than for the 1925 earthquake, suggesting that the 1870 earthquake was M I 5.7. A similar comparison of the MMI data for the 1870 earthquake with the corresponding data for the M 5.9 1988 Saguenay event suggests that the 1870 earthquake was M I 6.0. These analyses all suggest that the magnitude of the 1870 Charlevoix earthquake is between M I 5.5 and M I 6.0, with a best estimate of M I 5.8.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Contemporary seismicity in and around the Yakima-Fold-and-Thrust Belt in eastern Washington

We examined characteristics of routinely cataloged seismicity from 1970 to the present in and around the Yakima fold‐and‐thrust belt (YFTB) in eastern Washington to determine if the characteristics of contemporary seismicity provide clues about regional‐scale active tectonics or about more localized, near‐surface processes. We employed new structural and hydrologic models of the Columbia River basalts (CRB) and found that one‐third to one‐half of the cataloged earthquakes occur within the CRB and that these CRB earthquakes exhibit significantly more clustered, and swarmlike, behavior than those outside. These results and inferences from published studies led us to hypothesize that clustered seismicity is likely associated with hydrologic changes in the CRB, which hosts the regional aquifer system. While some general features of the regional groundwater system support this hypothesis, seismicity patterns and mapped long‐term changes in groundwater levels and present‐day irrigation neither support nor refute it. Regional tectonic processes and crustal‐scale structures likely influence the distribution of earthquakes both outside and within the CRB as well. We based this inference on qualitatively assessed alignments between the dominant northwest trends in the geologic structure and the seismicity generally and between specific faults and characteristics of the 2009 Wooded Island swarm and aseismic slip, which is the only cluster studied in detail and the most vigorous since regional monitoring began.

Washington↗

USGS2012

LiDAR and field observations of slip distribution for the most recent surface ruptures along the central San Jacinto fault

We measured offsets on tectonically displaced geomorphic features along 80 km of the Clark strand of the San Jacinto fault (SJF) to estimate slip‐per‐event for the past several surface ruptures. We identify 168 offset features from which we make over 490 measurements using B4 light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery and field observations. Our results suggest that LiDAR technology is an exemplary supplement to traditional field methods in slip‐per‐event studies. Displacement estimates indicate that the most recent surface‐rupturing event (MRE) produced an average of 2.5–2.9 m of right‐lateral slip with maximum slip of nearly 4 m at Anza, a M w 7.2–7.5 earthquake. Average multiple‐event offsets for the same 80 kms are &sim;5.5  m, with maximum values of 3 m at Anza for the penultimate event. Cumulative displacements of 9–10 m through Anza suggest the third event was also similar in size. Paleoseismic work at Hog Lake dates the most recent surface rupture event at ca. 1790. A poorly located, large earthquake occurred in southern California on 22 November 1800; we relocate this event to the Clark fault based on the MRE at Hog Lake. We also recognize the occurrence of a younger rupture along &sim;15–20  km of the fault in Blackburn Canyon with &sim;1.25  m of average displacement. We attribute these offsets to the 21 April 1918 M w 6.9 event. These data argue that much or all of the Clark fault, and possibly also the Casa Loma fault, fail together in large earthquakes, but that shorter sections may fail in smaller events.

California↗

USGS2012

Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude M I 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 M I 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 M I 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 M I 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

Hispaniola↗